2026-04-28
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-04-28
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 4.11 ERA: 4.28
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 6.26 K/9: 7.95
BB/9: 2.3 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 4.14 FIP: 4.22
IP: 30.0 IP: 30.3
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
Record 17-11 15-15
R/Game 4.74 4.00 4.52
RA/Game 4.70 4.26 4.52
OPS 0.721 0.690 0.716
wOBA 0.311 0.301 0.309
ERA 4.21 3.96 4.18
FIP 4.32 3.96 4.01
WHIP 1.24 1.25 1.32
K/9 8.20 9.37 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.91 4.41 4.19
BP FIP 4.83 3.85 4.01
BP WHIP 1.37 1.28
BP K/9 8.34 9.86
BP Quality* 53.7 47.8 45.9
BP IP 113.0 100.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (57°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9799 (Temp: 0.9819 | Wind: 0.9980)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.4 - CLE 4.1
Simulated Avg: TB 4.4 - CLE 4.1
Win Probability: TB 52.7% - CLE 47.3%
Fair Moneyline: TB -112 / CLE +112
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.4%
Under 7.5: 43.6%
TB +1.5: 69.1%
CLE -1.5: 30.9%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.980 / CLE 0.965
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.169 / CLE 1.042
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.4 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.4 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TB 55.4% - CLE 44.6% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -124 / CLE +124
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +112 -112 +5.6%
CLE ML -132 +112 -9.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kai-Wei Teng Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 2.16 ERA: 4.9
WHIP: 0.9 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.64 K/9: 9.2
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 3.42
FIP: 4.6 FIP: 4.07
IP: 16.7 IP: 28.3
xERA: 4.02 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BAL Lg Avg
Record 11-18 13-15
R/Game 5.04 4.41 4.52
RA/Game 5.67 4.97 4.52
OPS 0.771 0.717 0.716
wOBA 0.329 0.311 0.309
ERA 5.61 4.38 4.18
FIP 4.87 4.14 4.01
WHIP 1.58 1.39 1.32
K/9 9.44 8.62 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.449 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.86 4.19 4.19
BP FIP 5.42 4.11 4.01
BP WHIP 1.62 1.26
BP K/9 9.01 9.50
BP Quality* 60.1 45.4 45.9
BP IP 122.7 107.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9813 (Temp: 0.9831 | Wind: 0.9982)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 5.2 - BAL 5.1
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.2 - BAL 5.1
Win Probability: HOU 51.0% - BAL 49.0%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -104 / BAL +104
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.2%
Under 9.0: 37.2%
HOU +1.5: 65.7%
BAL -1.5: 34.3%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.012 / BAL 1.098
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.310 / BAL 0.988
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 3.0 - BAL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 3.0 - BAL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: HOU 57.8% - BAL 42.2% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -137 / BAL +137
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +116 -104 +4.7%
BAL ML -136 +104 -8.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Chase Burns
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL CIN Lg Avg
Record 13-16 18-10
R/Game 4.00 4.25 4.52
RA/Game 4.77 4.18 4.52
OPS 0.702 0.690 0.716
wOBA 0.304 0.300 0.309
ERA 4.40 3.79 4.18
FIP 4.38 4.27 4.01
WHIP 1.41 1.36 1.32
K/9 7.77 7.85 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.427 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.88 3.11 4.19
BP FIP 4.00 4.25 4.01
BP WHIP 1.33 1.35
BP K/9 8.80 8.84
BP Quality* 44.4 45.1 45.9
BP IP 137.0 108.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0100 (Temp: 0.9939 | Wind: 1.0162)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.1 - CIN 4.6
Simulated Avg: COL 4.1 - CIN 4.6
Win Probability: COL 44.3% - CIN 55.7%
Fair Moneyline: COL +126 / CIN -126
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.1%
Under 8.5: 51.9%
COL +1.5: 61.1%
CIN -1.5: 38.9%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.000 / CIN 0.953
Bullpen Adj: COL 0.968 / CIN 0.983
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.3 - CIN 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.3 - CIN 2.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 44.8% - CIN 55.2% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +123 / CIN -123
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +166 +126 +6.7%
CIN ML -198 -126 -10.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Leahy Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
Record 15-13 16-13
R/Game 4.54 4.53 4.52
RA/Game 4.99 3.97 4.52
OPS 0.707 0.686 0.716
wOBA 0.305 0.299 0.309
ERA 4.67 3.43 4.18
FIP 4.40 3.43 4.01
WHIP 1.40 1.22 1.32
K/9 6.90 8.95 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.457 0.558 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.83 3.36 4.19
BP FIP 3.98 3.73 4.01
BP WHIP 1.42 1.28
BP K/9 7.76 9.42
BP Quality* 54.9 53.2 45.9
BP IP 109.3 124.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +12.0)
UNAVAIL: Cam Sanders (B2B, 32 pitches)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wilber Dotel (44 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9735 (Temp: 0.9958 | Wind: 0.9776)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.5 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: STL 4.5 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: STL 47.7% - PIT 52.3%
Fair Moneyline: STL +110 / PIT -110
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 53.9%
Under 8.5: 46.1%
STL +1.5: 63.3%
PIT -1.5: 36.7%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.000 / PIT 1.000
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.195 / PIT 1.159
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.4 - PIT 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.4 - PIT 2.4
F5 Win Prob: STL 49.1% - PIT 50.9% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +104 / PIT -104
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +134 +110 +4.9%
PIT ML -158 -110 -8.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Jesús Luzardo
ERA: 2.62 ERA: 4.35
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 7.17 K/9: 10.62
BB/9: 3.28 BB/9: 2.81
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 2.85
IP: 25.7 IP: 27.3
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 3.33
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF PHI Lg Avg
Record 13-15 9-19
R/Game 3.64 3.88 4.52
RA/Game 4.10 5.26 4.52
OPS 0.673 0.677 0.716
wOBA 0.291 0.295 0.309
ERA 3.83 4.86 4.18
FIP 3.83 3.70 4.01
WHIP 1.29 1.46 1.32
K/9 8.58 9.32 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.368 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.04 4.28 4.19
BP FIP 3.75 3.65 4.01
BP WHIP 1.23 1.36
BP K/9 8.95 8.89
BP Quality* 41.5 44.4 45.9
BP IP 92.0 109.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9670 (Temp: 0.9842 | Wind: 0.9826)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.8 - PHI 3.3
Simulated Avg: SF 3.8 - PHI 3.3
Win Probability: SF 54.5% - PHI 45.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF -120 / PHI +120
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 8.0: 30.4%
Under 8.0: 59.2%
SF +1.5: 73.0%
PHI -1.5: 27.0%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.800 / PHI 1.114
Bullpen Adj: SF 0.903 / PHI 0.966
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.2 - PHI 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.2 - PHI 1.7
F5 Win Prob: SF 59.6% - PHI 40.4% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -147 / PHI +147
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +142 -120 +13.2%
PHI ML -168 +120 -17.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -146 | Edge: 13.6%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Payton Tolle Home: Trey Yesavage
ERA: 1.5 ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 0.67 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 16.5 K/9: 10.29
BB/9: 1.5 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 2.1 FIP: 2.31
IP: 6.0 IP: 14.0
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
Record 12-17 12-16
R/Game 4.32 4.13 4.52
RA/Game 4.37 4.83 4.52
OPS 0.683 0.702 0.716
wOBA 0.300 0.301 0.309
ERA 4.14 4.41 4.18
FIP 4.25 3.81 4.01
WHIP 1.30 1.32 1.32
K/9 8.34 9.66 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.56 4.30 4.19
BP FIP 4.05 3.57 4.01
BP WHIP 1.24 1.34
BP K/9 8.60 10.23
BP Quality* 44.5 46.6 45.9
BP IP 107.7 123.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 54°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Cool (54°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9702 (Temp: 0.9785 | Wind: 0.9915)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.0 - TOR 3.7
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.0 - TOR 3.7
Win Probability: BOS 52.8% - TOR 47.2%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -112 / TOR +112
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 47.8%
Under 7.5: 52.2%
BOS -1.5: 35.3%
TOR +1.5: 64.7%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.864 / TOR 0.941
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.969 / TOR 1.015
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.2 - TOR 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.2 - TOR 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 54.3% - TOR 45.7% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -119 / TOR +119
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -102 -112 +2.3%
TOR ML -116 +112 -6.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Littell Home: Clay Holmes
ERA: 4.24 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 6.17 K/9: 6.82
BB/9: 1.69 BB/9: 3.51
FIP: 5.17 FIP: 3.88
IP: 25.0 IP: 30.0
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Clay Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
Record 13-16 9-19
R/Game 5.18 3.57 4.52
RA/Game 5.84 4.37 4.52
OPS 0.715 0.651 0.716
wOBA 0.306 0.283 0.309
ERA 5.26 4.01 4.18
FIP 4.97 3.64 4.01
WHIP 1.48 1.30 1.32
K/9 7.87 9.02 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.405 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.33 3.78 4.19
BP FIP 5.20 3.53 4.01
BP WHIP 1.53 1.29
BP K/9 7.37 8.72
BP Quality* 58.3 41.7 45.9
BP IP 138.3 110.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gus Varland (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 54°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Cool (54°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9666 (Temp: 0.9778 | Wind: 0.9885)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.4 - NYM 4.1
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.4 - NYM 4.1
Win Probability: WSH 52.7% - NYM 47.3%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -111 / NYM +111
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.5%
Under 7.5: 43.5%
WSH +1.5: 69.0%
NYM -1.5: 30.9%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.161 / NYM 0.933
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.271 / NYM 0.908
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.5 - NYM 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.5 - NYM 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 55.7% - NYM 44.3% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -126 / NYM +126
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +158 -111 +13.9%
NYM ML -188 +111 -18.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[HIGH CONVICTION] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-146]
Model: 69.0% | Market: 59.3% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -223 | Kelly: 5.97%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00215
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Casey Mize Home: Martín Pérez
ERA: 3.68 ERA: 3.47
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 8.64 K/9: 6.93
BB/9: 2.31 BB/9: 3.43
FIP: 3.65 FIP: 4.12
IP: 28.7 IP: 23.3
xERA: 3.66 xERA: 5.37
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: DET (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET ATL Lg Avg
Record 15-14 20-9
R/Game 4.57 5.51 4.52
RA/Game 4.22 3.66 4.52
OPS 0.746 0.780 0.716
wOBA 0.323 0.335 0.309
ERA 3.95 3.34 4.18
FIP 3.74 3.73 4.01
WHIP 1.32 1.15 1.32
K/9 8.48 8.51 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.537 0.675 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.31 3.32 4.19
BP FIP 4.26 3.29 4.01
BP WHIP 1.46 1.12
BP K/9 8.31 8.85
BP Quality* 48.4 37.7 45.9
BP IP 95.0 103.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9868 (Temp: 0.9929 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.7 - ATL 5.5
Simulated Avg: DET 3.7 - ATL 5.5
Win Probability: DET 32.8% - ATL 67.2%
Fair Moneyline: DET +204 / ATL -204
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 52.4%
Under 8.5: 47.6%
DET +1.5: 48.5%
ATL -1.5: 51.5%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.919 / ATL 0.812
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.055 / ATL 0.821
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - ATL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - ATL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: DET 36.8% - ATL 63.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +172 / ATL -172
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML +106 +204 -15.7%
ATL ML -124 -204 +11.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -124 | Edge: 11.8%
[LEAN] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +168 | Edge: 14.2%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Joe Ryan
ERA: 3.6 ERA: 3.5
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 11.49 K/9: 10.04
BB/9: 2.09 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 3.09 FIP: 3.41
IP: 33.0 IP: 32.3
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA MIN Lg Avg
Record 14-16 13-16
R/Game 4.16 4.80 4.52
RA/Game 4.13 4.70 4.52
OPS 0.703 0.710 0.716
wOBA 0.308 0.311 0.309
ERA 3.79 4.34 4.18
FIP 3.59 3.74 4.01
WHIP 1.25 1.35 1.32
K/9 8.23 8.26 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.509 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 4.79 4.19
BP FIP 3.34 3.74 4.01
BP WHIP 1.37 1.51
BP K/9 8.62 8.13
BP Quality* 45.1 51.1 45.9
BP IP 96.0 98.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jose A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (42 pitches yesterday)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 48°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (48°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9909 (Temp: 0.9712 | Wind: 1.0203)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.8 - MIN 4.2
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.8 - MIN 4.2
Win Probability: SEA 46.1% - MIN 53.9%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +117 / MIN -117
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 51.1%
Under 7.5: 48.9%
SEA -1.5: 29.4%
MIN +1.5: 70.6%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.770 / MIN 0.823
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.984 / MIN 1.114
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 1.9 - MIN 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.9 - MIN 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 46.4% - MIN 53.6% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +116 / MIN -116
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -126 +117 -9.7%
MIN ML +108 -117 +5.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Minnesota Twins +1.5 (Run Line) [-172]
Model: 70.6% | Market: 63.2% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -240 | Kelly: 5.00%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00213
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 3.57 ERA: 3.8
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.46 K/9: 6.69
BB/9: 3.97 BB/9: 2.88
FIP: 3.37 FIP: 4.25
IP: 37.7 IP: 31.3
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 5.13
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.347
Pitcher Edge: LAA (José Soriano)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA CWS Lg Avg
Record 12-18 12-17
R/Game 4.76 4.14 4.52
RA/Game 5.11 5.04 4.52
OPS 0.731 0.689 0.716
wOBA 0.317 0.296 0.309
ERA 4.64 4.61 4.18
FIP 4.13 4.38 4.01
WHIP 1.44 1.44 1.32
K/9 8.86 7.88 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.411 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.58 4.88 4.19
BP FIP 4.69 4.58 4.01
BP WHIP 1.56 1.55
BP K/9 8.92 8.06
BP Quality* 58.4 57.2 45.9
BP IP 109.0 141.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nick Sandlin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Pomeranz (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Osvaldo Bido (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Cool (57°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9758 (Temp: 0.9822 | Wind: 0.9935)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 5.2 - CWS 4.3
Simulated Avg: LAA 5.2 - CWS 4.3
Win Probability: LAA 58.6% - CWS 41.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAA -142 / CWS +142
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 65.2%
Under 7.5: 34.8%
LAA -1.5: 43.2%
CWS +1.5: 56.8%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.874 / CWS 1.064
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.273 / CWS 1.247
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.7 - CWS 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.7 - CWS 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 62.8% - CWS 37.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -169 / CWS +169
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML -132 -142 +1.7%
CWS ML +112 +142 -5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.8%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Chad Patrick
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI MIL Lg Avg
Record 15-12 14-13
R/Game 4.89 4.91 4.52
RA/Game 5.02 4.12 4.52
OPS 0.741 0.691 0.716
wOBA 0.316 0.299 0.309
ERA 4.52 3.77 4.18
FIP 4.40 3.61 4.01
WHIP 1.32 1.28 1.32
K/9 7.73 9.26 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.579 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.70 3.98 4.19
BP FIP 4.33 3.59 4.01
BP WHIP 1.26 1.42
BP K/9 7.99 8.89
BP Quality* 49.8 46.8 45.9
BP IP 104.0 110.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0042 (Temp: 0.9844 | Wind: 1.0201)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.4 - MIL 5.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.4 - MIL 5.2
Win Probability: ARI 43.1% - MIL 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +132 / MIL -132
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.0: 56.3%
Under 8.0: 33.8%
ARI -1.5: 28.5%
MIL +1.5: 71.5%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.000 / MIL 0.869
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.085 / MIL 1.019
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.3 - MIL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.3 - MIL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ARI 43.5% - MIL 56.5% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +130 / MIL -130
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -104 +132 -7.9%
MIL ML -112 -132 +4.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 2.76 ERA: 2.85
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 10.36 K/9: 10.04
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 2.01
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 3.51
IP: 35.7 IP: 25.3
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 3.36
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TEX Lg Avg
Record 19-10 14-15
R/Game 5.18 4.01 4.52
RA/Game 3.61 3.75 4.52
OPS 0.771 0.694 0.716
wOBA 0.330 0.300 0.309
ERA 3.31 3.58 4.18
FIP 3.44 3.95 4.01
WHIP 1.15 1.24 1.32
K/9 8.81 8.96 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.660 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 2.92 4.19
BP FIP 3.81 3.70 4.01
BP WHIP 1.35 1.19
BP K/9 8.81 7.91
BP Quality* 47.1 43.6 45.9
BP IP 90.3 103.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Peyton Gray (B2B, 41 pitches)
TIRED: Gavin Collyer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 42%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9721 (Temp: 1.0010 | Wind: 0.9711)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.5 - TEX 3.8
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.5 - TEX 3.8
Win Probability: NYY 56.9% - TEX 43.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -132 / TEX +132
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 53.6%
Under 7.5: 46.4%
NYY -1.5: 39.7%
TEX +1.5: 60.3%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.813 / TEX 0.786
Bullpen Adj: NYY 1.027 / TEX 0.950
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.3 - TEX 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.3 - TEX 1.9
F5 Win Prob: NYY 57.8% - TEX 42.2% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -137 / TEX +137
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -120 -132 +2.3%
TEX ML +102 +132 -6.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Athletics
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kris Bubic Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC ATH Lg Avg
Record 11-17 15-13
R/Game 4.15 4.30 4.52
RA/Game 4.67 4.64 4.52
OPS 0.707 0.717 0.716
wOBA 0.305 0.306 0.309
ERA 4.44 4.48 4.18
FIP 4.36 4.52 4.01
WHIP 1.37 1.42 1.32
K/9 8.61 8.14 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.33 4.15 4.19
BP FIP 4.86 3.92 4.01
BP WHIP 1.55 1.43
BP K/9 8.80 8.74
BP Quality* 55.3 46.1 45.9
BP IP 92.3 109.0
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9768 (Temp: 0.9858 | Wind: 0.9908)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.1 - ATH 4.5
Simulated Avg: KC 4.1 - ATH 4.5
Win Probability: KC 45.8% - ATH 54.2%
Fair Moneyline: KC +118 / ATH -118
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
KC -1.5: 29.7%
KC +1.5: 62.7%
ATH -1.5: 37.3%
ATH +1.5: 70.3%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.903 / ATH 1.000
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.204 / ATH 1.004
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.3 - ATH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.3 - ATH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: KC 51.8% - ATH 48.2% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -107 / ATH +107
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Edward Cabrera Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 3.42 ERA: 5.05
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 9.36 K/9: 6.9
BB/9: 3.17 BB/9: 4.31
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 5.04
IP: 29.7 IP: 20.3
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Edward Cabrera)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SD Lg Avg
Record 17-12 19-9
R/Game 5.30 4.64 4.52
RA/Game 4.32 4.14 4.52
OPS 0.773 0.706 0.716
wOBA 0.333 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.00 3.98 4.18
FIP 3.99 3.45 4.01
WHIP 1.21 1.27 1.32
K/9 8.10 8.99 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.593 0.552 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.85 3.67 4.19
BP FIP 4.10 3.03 4.01
BP WHIP 1.27 1.25
BP K/9 8.07 9.18
BP Quality* 45.9 43.2 45.9
BP IP 109.3 113.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ben Brown (43 pitches yesterday)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0062 (Temp: 0.9892 | Wind: 1.0172)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.0 - SD 4.3
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.1 - SD 4.3
Win Probability: CHC 56.9% - SD 43.1%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -132 / SD +132
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.5%
Under 8.5: 45.5%
CHC -1.5: 41.4%
SD +1.5: 58.6%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 0.902 / SD 1.055
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.001 / SD 0.940
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.0 - SD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.0 - SD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CHC 60.9% - SD 39.1% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -156 / SD +156
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -118 -132 +2.7%
SD ML +100 +132 -6.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | April 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Janson Junk Home: Shohei Ohtani
ERA: 4.1 ERA: 2.59
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 6.21 K/9: 11.59
BB/9: 1.24 BB/9: 1.78
FIP: 3.08 FIP: 1.86
IP: 27.0 IP: 24.0
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 2.55
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.25
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Shohei Ohtani)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA LAD Lg Avg
Record 13-16 20-9
R/Game 4.46 5.56 4.52
RA/Game 4.59 3.47 4.52
OPS 0.714 0.812 0.716
wOBA 0.312 0.343 0.309
ERA 4.17 3.39 4.18
FIP 3.88 3.49 4.01
WHIP 1.28 1.14 1.32
K/9 8.70 8.92 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.703 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.80 4.10 4.19
BP FIP 3.65 3.45 4.01
BP WHIP 1.30 1.25
BP K/9 10.08 9.64
BP Quality* 48.5 47.9 45.9
BP IP 99.7 86.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Nardi (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Eder (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (60°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9825 (Temp: 0.9852 | Wind: 0.9972)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.6 - LAD 5.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.6 - LAD 5.5
Win Probability: MIA 31.8% - LAD 68.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +215 / LAD -215
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 7.5: 62.3%
Under 7.5: 37.7%
MIA +1.5: 47.4%
LAD -1.5: 52.6%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 0.991 / LAD 0.734
Bullpen Adj: MIA 1.056 / LAD 1.044
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.7 - LAD 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.7 - LAD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: MIA 29.7% - LAD 70.3% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +236 / LAD -236
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +235 +215 +1.9%
LAD ML -290 -215 -6.1%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[HIGH CONVICTION] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.9%
Fair ML: -165 | Kelly: 5.20%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00214