MLB
Major League Baseball
2026 season
Standard Confidence
257-220-8P
485 graded plays · W–L–P
- Units
- +2.0u
- ROI
- +0.4%
- Win rate
- 53.9%
High Confidence
358-317-12P
687 graded plays · W–L–P
- Units
- +4.7u
- ROI
- +0.7%
- Win rate
- 53.0%
50,000 Simulations.
Find the Outliers.
A Monte Carlo sports model that surfaces the games where the market is wrong. Daily picks, fully transparent track record, free.
Every sport. Every play accounted for.
Records by Sport
Official 2026 season results, split by confidence. Explore each sport for the full record and latest picks.
NFL
National Football League
2026 season
Standard Confidence
6-10
16 graded plays · W–L
- Units
- -4.6u
- ROI
- -28.5%
- Win rate
- 37.5%
High Confidence
11-23
34 graded plays · W–L
- Units
- -7.7u
- ROI
- -22.7%
- Win rate
- 32.4%
CFB
College Football
2026 season
Standard Confidence
45-56
101 graded plays · W–L
- Units
- -15.4u
- ROI
- -15.2%
- Win rate
- 44.6%
High Confidence
19-22
41 graded plays · W–L
- Units
- -4.7u
- ROI
- -11.4%
- Win rate
- 46.3%
NHL
National Hockey League
2026 season
Standard Confidence
11-17
28 graded plays · W–L
- Units
- -3.9u
- ROI
- -13.9%
- Win rate
- 39.3%
High Confidence
15-13
28 graded plays · W–L
- Units
- +4.9u
- ROI
- +17.5%
- Win rate
- 53.6%
NBA
National Basketball Association
Coming soon
Standard Confidence
Records available at launch.
High Confidence
Records available at launch.
CBB
College Basketball
Coming soon
Standard Confidence
Records available at launch.
High Confidence
Records available at launch.
01
Simulate.
Every game runs through 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations using team-level efficiency metrics, contextual modifiers, and real-time inputs. The model produces a probability distribution, not a single point estimate.
02
Compare.
The model's probabilities are compared against the market's implied odds. The gap between them is the edge. Plays are only released when the edge clears a disciplined threshold.
03
Track.
Every play is logged publicly: the bet, the edge at release, the closing line, and the result. Closing line value is tracked to verify the edge was real, not lucky.
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