50,000 Simulations.
Find the Outliers.

A Monte Carlo sports model that surfaces the games where the market is wrong. Daily picks, fully transparent track record, free.

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Every sport. Every play accounted for.

Records by Sport

Official 2026 season results, split by confidence. Explore each sport for the full record and latest picks.

MLB

Major League Baseball

2026 season

Standard Confidence

242-208-7P

457 graded plays · W–L–P

Units: 0.0u
ROI: 0.0%
Win rate: 53.8%

High Confidence

345-303-12P

660 graded plays · W–L–P

Units: +7.1u
ROI: +1.1%
Win rate: 53.2%

NFL

National Football League

2026 season

Standard Confidence

2-2

4 graded plays · W–L

Units: -0.2u
ROI: -4.3%
Win rate: 50.0%

High Confidence

1-4

5 graded plays · W–L

Units: -3.1u
ROI: -62.1%
Win rate: 20.0%

CFB

College Football

2026 season

Standard Confidence

5-5

10 graded plays · W–L

Units: -0.4u
ROI: -4.1%
Win rate: 50.0%

High Confidence

23-28

51 graded plays · W–L

Units: -7.1u
ROI: -13.9%
Win rate: 45.1%

NHL

National Hockey League

Coming soon

Standard Confidence

Records available at launch.

High Confidence

Records available at launch.

NBA

National Basketball Association

Coming soon

Standard Confidence

Records available at launch.

High Confidence

Records available at launch.

CBB

College Basketball

Coming soon

Standard Confidence

Records available at launch.

High Confidence

Records available at launch.

Simulate.

Every game runs through 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations using team-level efficiency metrics, contextual modifiers, and real-time inputs. The model produces a probability distribution, not a single point estimate.

Compare.

The model's probabilities are compared against the market's implied odds. The gap between them is the edge. Plays are only released when the edge clears a disciplined threshold.

Track.

Every play is logged publicly: the bet, the edge at release, the closing line, and the result. Closing line value is tracked to verify the edge was real, not lucky.

Read the full methodology →