2026-10-28
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-28
Games: 1 | Plays: 0
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[NO ANNOUNCED STARTER] TB starter not announced (TBD)
[NO ANNOUNCED STARTER] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (an unknown starter is never priced as league average).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | October 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL TB Lg Avg
Record 103-59 98-64
R/Game 5.14 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 4.01 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.51 3.70 4.17
FIP 3.58 3.93 4.03
WHIP 1.18 1.14 1.30
K/9 9.61 8.25 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.633 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 3.63 4.22
BP FIP 3.61 3.88 4.05
BP WHIP 1.25 1.15
BP K/9 9.02 8.78
BP Quality* 40.7 41.6 46.1
BP IP 571.0 486.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.6 - TB 2.9
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.7 - TB 2.9
Win Probability: MIL 68.2% - TB 31.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -214 / TB +214
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 6.5: 57.7%
Under 6.5: 42.3%
MIL -1.5: 50.7%
TB +1.5: 49.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.7 - TB 1.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.7 - TB 1.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 77.4% - TB 22.6% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -342 / TB +342
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -157 -214 +7.1%
TB ML +130 +214 -11.6%
MIL -1.5 +118 -103 +4.8%
TB +1.5 -142 +103 -9.4%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +5.4%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -10.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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