2026-04-29
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-04-29
Games: 13 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 2.72 ERA: 3.1
WHIP: 0.98 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 7.83 K/9: 9.6
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 4.52
FIP: 3.76 FIP: 4.32
IP: 25.7 IP: 35.7
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
Record 18-11 15-16
R/Game 4.64 3.88 4.49
RA/Game 4.58 4.17 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.685 0.715
wOBA 0.309 0.297 0.309
ERA 4.10 3.88 4.16
FIP 4.29 3.94 4.00
WHIP 1.23 1.25 1.32
K/9 8.15 9.33 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.467 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 4.29 4.20
BP FIP 4.86 3.87 4.00
BP WHIP 1.39 1.26
BP K/9 8.37 9.62
BP Quality* 56.9 47.5 45.9
BP IP 115.0 104.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jonny DeLuca, Nick Fortes, Ben Williamson
Jonny DeLuca RF OPS: 0.812 (57 AB)
Nick Fortes C OPS: 0.645 (218 AB)
Ben Williamson 2B OPS: 0.604 (277 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rhys Hoskins, David Fry
Rhys Hoskins 1B OPS: 0.748 (279 AB)
David Fry RF OPS: 0.592 (146 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 48°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 64%
Conditions: Cool (48°F), light wind (8 mph) | Rain likely (64%)
Weather Factor: 1.0085 (Temp: 0.9716 | Wind: 1.0380)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.2 - CLE 3.8
Simulated Avg: TB 4.2 - CLE 3.8
Win Probability: TB 54.5% - CLE 45.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB -120 / CLE +120
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 6.5: 63.1%
Under 6.5: 36.9%
TB -1.5: 37.5%
CLE +1.5: 62.5%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.852 / CLE 0.963
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.239 / CLE 1.034
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.3 - CLE 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.3 - CLE 1.8
F5 Win Prob: TB 60.5% - CLE 39.5% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -153 / CLE +153
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -102 -120 +4.0%
CLE ML -116 +120 -8.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.8%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Nathan Eovaldi
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TEX Lg Avg
Record 20-10 14-16
R/Game 5.12 3.95 4.49
RA/Game 3.55 3.73 4.48
OPS 0.764 0.692 0.715
wOBA 0.327 0.299 0.309
ERA 3.22 3.56 4.16
FIP 3.39 3.96 4.00
WHIP 1.15 1.22 1.32
K/9 8.86 8.92 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.663 0.525 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.93 2.98 4.20
BP FIP 3.78 3.86 4.00
BP WHIP 1.37 1.17
BP K/9 8.80 7.85
BP Quality* 45.5 42.8 45.9
BP IP 93.3 106.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gavin Collyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Amed Rosario, Paul Goldschmidt, Austin Wells
Amed Rosario 3B OPS: 0.745 (181 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt 1B OPS: 0.731 (489 AB)
Austin Wells C OPS: 0.711 (401 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.7% of full strength
TEX (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Danny Jansen, Josh Smith, Andrew McCutchen, Sam Haggerty
Danny Jansen C OPS: 0.720 (288 AB)
Josh Smith 2B OPS: 0.701 (495 AB)
Andrew McCutchen LF OPS: 0.700 (477 AB)
Sam Haggerty LF OPS: 0.698 (162 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 29%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9747 (Temp: 0.9891 | Wind: 0.9855)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 3.9 - TEX 3.9
Simulated Avg: NYY 3.9 - TEX 3.9
Win Probability: NYY 50.2% - TEX 49.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -101 / TEX +101
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 38.0%
Under 8.5: 62.1%
NYY -1.5: 32.8%
TEX +1.5: 67.2%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 1.000 / TEX 0.697
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.991 / TEX 0.933
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 1.9 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 1.9 - TEX 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYY 45.6% - TEX 54.4% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +119 / TEX -119
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -118 -101 -3.9%
TEX ML +100 +101 -0.2%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[HIGH CONVICTION] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -164 | Kelly: 5.08%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00216
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brayan Bello Home: Eric Lauer
ERA: 4.16 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 6.62 K/9: 8.63
BB/9: 3.49 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 4.54 FIP: 4.07
IP: 22.0 IP: 22.7
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Eric Lauer)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
Record 12-18 13-16
R/Game 4.18 4.07 4.49
RA/Game 4.34 4.71 4.48
OPS 0.672 0.697 0.715
wOBA 0.295 0.299 0.309
ERA 4.13 4.29 4.16
FIP 4.24 3.73 4.00
WHIP 1.30 1.29 1.32
K/9 8.33 9.66 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.48 4.20 4.20
BP FIP 4.02 3.50 4.00
BP WHIP 1.23 1.30
BP K/9 8.58 10.36
BP Quality* 44.0 47.2 45.9
BP IP 111.0 127.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zack Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jarren Duran, Nate Eaton, Carlos Narváez
Jarren Duran LF OPS: 0.774 (620 AB)
Nate Eaton OF OPS: 0.731 (81 AB)
Carlos Narváez C OPS: 0.725 (403 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.8% of full strength
TOR (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: George Springer, Davis Schneider, Tyler Heineman, Lenyn Sosa
George Springer DH OPS: 0.959 (498 AB)
Davis Schneider LF OPS: 0.797 (188 AB)
Tyler Heineman C OPS: 0.777 (149 AB)
Lenyn Sosa 2B OPS: 0.727 (518 AB)
Run Adjustment: 87.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.8 - TOR 3.6
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.8 - TOR 3.6
Win Probability: BOS 52.0% - TOR 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -109 / TOR +109
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.5: 33.7%
Under 8.5: 66.3%
BOS +1.5: 70.0%
TOR -1.5: 30.0%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.996 / TOR 0.964
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.959 / TOR 1.028
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.1 - TOR 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.1 - TOR 2.0
F5 Win Prob: BOS 51.7% - TOR 48.3% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -107 / TOR +107
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +106 -109 +3.5%
TOR ML -124 +109 -7.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.9%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Tyler Glasnow
ERA: 4.96 ERA: 3.08
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 7.07 K/9: 10.53
BB/9: 2.92 BB/9: 3.94
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 3.42
IP: 41.3 IP: 33.0
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 3.33
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tyler Glasnow)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA LAD Lg Avg
Record 14-16 20-10
R/Game 4.40 5.44 4.49
RA/Game 4.47 3.40 4.48
OPS 0.711 0.801 0.715
wOBA 0.310 0.340 0.309
ERA 4.06 3.30 4.16
FIP 3.84 3.41 4.00
WHIP 1.27 1.13 1.32
K/9 8.58 9.03 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.702 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.77 3.98 4.20
BP FIP 3.62 3.35 4.00
BP WHIP 1.30 1.24
BP K/9 9.89 9.72
BP Quality* 52.8 45.5 45.9
BP IP 102.7 89.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Michael Petersen (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Nardi (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Agustín Ramírez, Christopher Morel, Javier Sanoja
Agustín Ramírez C OPS: 0.700 (537 AB)
Christopher Morel LF OPS: 0.685 (278 AB)
Javier Sanoja 3B OPS: 0.683 (313 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.9% of full strength
LAD (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Will Smith, Teoscar Hernández, Miguel Rojas
Will Smith C OPS: 0.901 (362 AB)
Teoscar Hernández LF OPS: 0.738 (511 AB)
Miguel Rojas SS OPS: 0.715 (290 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9909 (Temp: 1.0039 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.5 - LAD 5.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.5 - LAD 5.5
Win Probability: MIA 30.9% - LAD 69.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +223 / LAD -223
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.1%
Under 8.5: 49.9%
MIA +1.5: 46.8%
LAD -1.5: 53.2%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.080 / LAD 0.794
Bullpen Adj: MIA 1.151 / LAD 0.990
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.8 - LAD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.8 - LAD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: MIA 31.2% - LAD 68.8% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +221 / LAD -221
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +194 +223 -3.1%
LAD ML -235 -223 -1.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jameson Taillon Home: Matt Waldron
ERA: 3.8 ERA: 12.46
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 2.31
K/9: 6.99 K/9: 7.27
BB/9: 2.16 BB/9: 4.15
FIP: 4.8 FIP: 5.86
IP: 27.7 IP: 8.7
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 11.19
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.472
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Jameson Taillon)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC SD Lg Avg
Record 18-12 19-10
R/Game 5.38 4.60 4.49
RA/Game 4.29 4.26 4.48
OPS 0.773 0.700 0.715
wOBA 0.334 0.302 0.309
ERA 3.98 4.10 4.16
FIP 3.96 3.48 4.00
WHIP 1.20 1.28 1.32
K/9 8.15 8.93 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.603 0.536 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 3.96 4.20
BP FIP 4.04 3.13 4.00
BP WHIP 1.24 1.27
BP K/9 8.07 9.07
BP Quality* 45.1 44.9 45.9
BP IP 112.7 117.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly
Seiya Suzuki RF OPS: 0.804 (571 AB)
Carson Kelly C OPS: 0.761 (369 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.9% of full strength
SD (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ramón Laureano, Bryce Johnson, Gavin Sheets
Ramón Laureano LF OPS: 0.854 (441 AB)
Bryce Johnson RF OPS: 0.817 (76 AB)
Gavin Sheets 1B OPS: 0.746 (492 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9946 (Temp: 0.9995 | Wind: 0.9951)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 5.8 - SD 3.9
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.8 - SD 3.9
Win Probability: CHC 67.0% - SD 33.0%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -203 / SD +203
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 48.0%
Under 9.0: 42.3%
CHC -1.5: 52.3%
SD +1.5: 47.7%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 0.939 / SD 1.388
Bullpen Adj: CHC 0.984 / SD 0.977
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 3.7 - SD 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.7 - SD 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CHC 72.1% - SD 27.9% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -259 / SD +259
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -104 -203 +16.0%
SD ML -112 +203 -19.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Chicago Cubs (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -104 | Edge: 16.1%
[LEAN] Chicago Cubs -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +152 | Edge: 12.7%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Peter Lambert Home: Chris Bassitt
ERA: 3.27 ERA: 4.36
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 13.09 K/9: 8.12
BB/9: 3.27 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 1.28 FIP: 4.05
IP: 11.0 IP: 21.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BAL Lg Avg
Record 11-19 14-15
R/Game 5.00 4.43 4.49
RA/Game 5.70 4.92 4.48
OPS 0.774 0.718 0.715
wOBA 0.329 0.311 0.309
ERA 5.66 4.33 4.16
FIP 4.86 4.08 4.00
WHIP 1.58 1.40 1.32
K/9 9.43 8.72 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.452 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.90 4.21 4.20
BP FIP 5.43 4.02 4.00
BP WHIP 1.61 1.26
BP K/9 9.05 9.67
BP Quality* 61.8 49.4 45.9
BP IP 127.7 111.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Weiss (54 pitches yesterday)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 72%
Conditions: Cool (60°F), light wind (4 mph) | Rain likely (72%)
Weather Factor: 0.9774 (Temp: 0.9855 | Wind: 0.9918)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.2 - BAL 5.5
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.2 - BAL 5.5
Win Probability: HOU 47.0% - BAL 52.9%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +113 / BAL -113
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.5: 56.6%
Under 9.5: 43.4%
HOU +1.5: 61.3%
BAL -1.5: 38.7%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.131 / BAL 1.044
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.345 / BAL 1.077
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.9 - BAL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.9 - BAL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: HOU 51.0% - BAL 49.0% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -104 / BAL +104
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +108 +113 -1.0%
BAL ML -126 -113 -2.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Brandon Williamson
ERA: 4.47 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 6.14 K/9: 5.4
BB/9: 2.06 BB/9: 5.76
FIP: 5.12 FIP: 5.9
IP: 26.3 IP: 25.0
xERA: 5.81 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: COL (Tomoyuki Sugano)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL CIN Lg Avg
Record 13-17 19-10
R/Game 3.96 4.33 4.49
RA/Game 4.79 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.705 0.695 0.715
wOBA 0.305 0.303 0.309
ERA 4.44 3.74 4.16
FIP 4.37 4.22 4.00
WHIP 1.40 1.37 1.32
K/9 7.80 7.95 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.419 0.523 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.94 3.01 4.20
BP FIP 4.01 4.20 4.00
BP WHIP 1.34 1.36
BP K/9 8.84 8.85
BP Quality* 46.2 44.7 45.9
BP IP 140.0 111.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Gordon (50 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Troy Johnston, Tyler Freeman, Edouard Julien
Troy Johnston RF OPS: 0.751 (112 AB)
Tyler Freeman RF OPS: 0.715 (377 AB)
Edouard Julien 2B OPS: 0.633 (182 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.4% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson
Tyler Stephenson C OPS: 0.737 (299 AB)
Will Benson RF OPS: 0.708 (230 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Cool (60°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0035 (Temp: 0.9851 | Wind: 1.0186)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.1 - CIN 4.8
Simulated Avg: COL 4.0 - CIN 4.8
Win Probability: COL 42.8% - CIN 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL +134 / CIN -134
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.5: 38.9%
Under 9.5: 61.1%
COL +1.5: 59.4%
CIN -1.5: 40.6%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.071 / CIN 1.058
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.007 / CIN 0.974
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.4 - CIN 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.4 - CIN 2.7
F5 Win Prob: COL 45.2% - CIN 54.8% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +121 / CIN -121
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +146 +134 +2.1%
CIN ML -174 -134 -6.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[HIGH CONVICTION] Under 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.56%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00217
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andre Pallante Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 5.16 ERA: 4.14
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 6.28 K/9: 8.75
BB/9: 3.65 BB/9: 1.84
FIP: 4.58 FIP: 2.79
IP: 25.3 IP: 24.0
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Bubba Chandler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
Record 16-13 16-14
R/Game 4.73 4.63 4.49
RA/Game 5.05 4.17 4.48
OPS 0.717 0.697 0.715
wOBA 0.308 0.303 0.309
ERA 4.72 3.63 4.16
FIP 4.44 3.47 4.00
WHIP 1.40 1.25 1.32
K/9 7.00 9.00 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.546 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.93 3.54 4.20
BP FIP 4.02 3.71 4.00
BP WHIP 1.43 1.30
BP K/9 7.80 9.34
BP Quality* 50.9 47.9 45.9
BP IP 113.0 129.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Barco (84 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 44%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9740 (Temp: 0.9842 | Wind: 0.9896)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.3 - PIT 5.2
Simulated Avg: STL 4.3 - PIT 5.2
Win Probability: STL 41.5% - PIT 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: STL +141 / PIT -141
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 65.6%
Under 7.5: 34.4%
STL +1.5: 57.0%
PIT -1.5: 43.0%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.177 / PIT 0.922
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.108 / PIT 1.043
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.3 - PIT 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.3 - PIT 2.9
F5 Win Prob: STL 39.7% - PIT 60.3% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +152 / PIT -152
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +184 +141 +6.3%
PIT ML -220 -141 -10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.2%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Webb Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 3.5 ERA: 2.58
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 9.4 K/9: 9.8
BB/9: 2.2 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 2.59 FIP: 2.46
IP: 37.0 IP: 33.7
xERA: 3.58 xERA: 3.02
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF PHI Lg Avg
Record 13-16 10-19
R/Game 3.52 3.94 4.49
RA/Game 4.18 5.14 4.48
OPS 0.661 0.679 0.715
wOBA 0.285 0.297 0.309
ERA 3.94 4.75 4.16
FIP 3.83 3.62 4.00
WHIP 1.31 1.43 1.32
K/9 8.54 9.40 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.420 0.383 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.11 4.21 4.20
BP FIP 3.73 3.56 4.00
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 8.97 9.02
BP Quality* 41.8 45.1 45.9
BP IP 95.0 111.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Blade Tidwell (47 pitches yesterday)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 23%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9713 (Temp: 0.9834 | Wind: 0.9877)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 2.7 - PHI 3.3
Simulated Avg: SF 2.7 - PHI 3.3
Win Probability: SF 41.9% - PHI 58.1%
Fair Moneyline: SF +138 / PHI -138
Avg Total Runs: 6.0
Over 8.5: 19.4%
Under 8.5: 80.7%
SF +1.5: 63.4%
PHI -1.5: 36.6%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.761 / PHI 0.646
Bullpen Adj: SF 0.910 / PHI 0.983
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.2 - PHI 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.3 - PHI 1.7
F5 Win Prob: SF 39.8% - PHI 60.2% (Tie: 22.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +151 / PHI -151
F5 Avg Total: 2.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +120 +138 -3.5%
PHI ML -142 -138 -0.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 28.3%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cade Cavalli Home: David Peterson
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 4.32
WHIP: 1.51 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 7.88 K/9: 8.01
BB/9: 3.05 BB/9: 3.5
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 3.35
IP: 24.7 IP: 26.7
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: NYM (David Peterson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
Record 13-17 10-19
R/Game 5.06 3.67 4.49
RA/Game 5.91 4.24 4.48
OPS 0.706 0.649 0.715
wOBA 0.302 0.282 0.309
ERA 5.23 3.90 4.16
FIP 5.05 3.57 4.00
WHIP 1.48 1.28 1.32
K/9 7.76 9.09 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.429 0.431 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.18 3.69 4.20
BP FIP 5.17 3.47 4.00
BP WHIP 1.50 1.27
BP K/9 7.26 8.86
BP Quality* 57.5 40.9 45.9
BP IP 142.7 113.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Andre Granillo (32 pitches yesterday)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 50°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Cool (50°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9670 (Temp: 0.9741 | Wind: 0.9927)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.4 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.4 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: WSH 51.4% - NYM 48.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -106 / NYM +106
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.5%
Under 7.5: 42.5%
WSH +1.5: 67.7%
NYM -1.5: 32.3%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.159 / NYM 0.977
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.254 / NYM 0.891
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.5 - NYM 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.5 - NYM 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 55.2% - NYM 44.8% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -123 / NYM +123
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +190 -106 +16.9%
NYM ML -230 +106 -21.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -120 | Edge: 13.2%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tarik Skubal Home: JR Ritchie
ERA: 2.3 ERA: 2.57
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 10.81 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 1.51 BB/9: 2.57
FIP: 2.26 FIP: 5.67
IP: 36.3 IP: 7.0
xERA: 2.71 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.258 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: DET (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET ATL Lg Avg
Record 15-15 21-9
R/Game 4.50 5.52 4.49
RA/Game 4.24 3.59 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.784 0.715
wOBA 0.323 0.336 0.309
ERA 4.00 3.27 4.16
FIP 3.73 3.75 4.00
WHIP 1.33 1.16 1.32
K/9 8.52 8.49 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.685 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 3.33 4.20
BP FIP 4.24 3.33 4.00
BP WHIP 1.45 1.12
BP K/9 8.38 8.79
BP Quality* 51.4 39.4 45.9
BP IP 100.7 107.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brant Hurter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Burch Smith (33 pitches yesterday)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aaron Bummer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0053 (Temp: 1.0034 | Wind: 1.0018)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.6 - ATL 4.6
Simulated Avg: DET 3.6 - ATL 4.6
Win Probability: DET 39.0% - ATL 61.0%
Fair Moneyline: DET +156 / ATL -156
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 43.1%
Under 8.5: 56.9%
DET -1.5: 23.8%
ATL +1.5: 76.2%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.584 / ATL 0.753
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.119 / ATL 0.859
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 1.9 - ATL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.9 - ATL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: DET 51.0% - ATL 49.0% (Tie: 19.7%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -104 / ATL +104
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -108 +156 -12.9%
ATL ML -108 -156 +9.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -194 | Edge: 10.2%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Brandon Sproat
ERA: 4.72 ERA: 6.45
WHIP: 1.51 WHIP: 1.57
K/9: 7.98 K/9: 8.06
BB/9: 3.55 BB/9: 5.24
FIP: 4.58 FIP: 5.97
IP: 28.0 IP: 22.3
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI MIL Lg Avg
Record 15-13 15-13
R/Game 4.80 5.14 4.49
RA/Game 5.25 4.07 4.48
OPS 0.732 0.700 0.715
wOBA 0.312 0.302 0.309
ERA 4.75 3.72 4.16
FIP 4.46 3.59 4.00
WHIP 1.36 1.27 1.32
K/9 7.58 9.24 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.605 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.07 3.89 4.20
BP FIP 4.31 3.53 4.00
BP WHIP 1.30 1.40
BP K/9 7.87 8.83
BP Quality* 52.7 44.6 45.9
BP IP 107.0 114.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Hoffmann (38 pitches yesterday)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jake Woodford (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: James McCann
James McCann C OPS: 0.755 (123 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.7% of full strength
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.9 - MIL 5.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.9 - MIL 5.9
Win Probability: ARI 41.4% - MIL 58.6%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +142 / MIL -142
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 7.5: 75.7%
Under 7.5: 24.3%
ARI +1.5: 55.4%
MIL -1.5: 44.6%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.140 / MIL 1.156
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.148 / MIL 0.971
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 3.0 - MIL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.0 - MIL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 46.2% - MIL 53.8% (Tie: 13.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +116 / MIL -116
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +104 +142 -7.6%
MIL ML -122 -142 +3.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[HIGH CONVICTION] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [+176]
Model: 44.6% | Market: 36.2% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: +124 | Kelly: 3.27%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00218
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 23.3%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Athletics
Regular Season | April 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Wacha Home: Luis Severino
ERA: 3.67 ERA: 4.65
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 6.74 K/9: 7.26
BB/9: 2.41 BB/9: 3.33
FIP: 3.54 FIP: 3.94
IP: 32.3 IP: 31.3
xERA: 4.19 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: KC (Michael Wacha)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC ATH Lg Avg
Record 12-17 15-14
R/Game 4.15 4.20 4.49
RA/Game 4.59 4.61 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.712 0.715
wOBA 0.307 0.305 0.309
ERA 4.35 4.41 4.16
FIP 4.32 4.55 4.00
WHIP 1.37 1.42 1.32
K/9 8.66 8.08 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.15 4.18 4.20
BP FIP 4.78 4.07 4.00
BP WHIP 1.54 1.41
BP K/9 8.84 8.68
BP Quality* 57.2 51.2 45.9
BP IP 97.3 114.0
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nick Mears (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Perkins (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9780 (Temp: 0.9876 | Wind: 0.9903)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.4 - ATH 4.5
Simulated Avg: KC 4.4 - ATH 4.5
Win Probability: KC 48.8% - ATH 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: KC +105 / ATH -105
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
KC -1.5: 33.2%
KC +1.5: 64.8%
ATH -1.5: 35.2%
ATH +1.5: 66.8%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.913 / ATH 1.046
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.247 / ATH 1.115
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.4 - ATH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.4 - ATH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: KC 53.7% - ATH 46.3% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -116 / ATH +116
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================