2026-04-30
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-04-30
Games: 5 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles (Game 2)
Regular Season | April 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Lance McCullers Jr. Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 6.54 ERA: 6.03
WHIP: 1.77 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 9.72 K/9: 7.26
BB/9: 6.09 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 5.28 FIP: 5.24
IP: 25.3 IP: 10.7
xERA: 5.34 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BAL Lg Avg
Record 11-19 14-15
R/Game 4.88 4.31 4.44
RA/Game 5.58 4.78 4.43
OPS 0.772 0.714 0.714
wOBA 0.329 0.310 0.308
ERA 5.65 4.27 4.14
FIP 4.89 4.05 4.00
WHIP 1.58 1.39 1.32
K/9 9.37 8.73 8.57
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.98 4.20 4.20
BP FIP 5.49 4.02 4.01
BP WHIP 1.63 1.26
BP K/9 9.01 9.68
BP Quality* 60.9 44.8 45.9
BP IP 127.7 111.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Cam Smith, Daniel Johnson
Cam Smith RF OPS: 0.670 (441 AB)
Daniel Johnson CF OPS: 0.548 (53 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.9% of full strength
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler O'Neill
Tyler O'Neill RF OPS: 0.684 (181 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), crosswind (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9937 (Temp: 0.9927 | Wind: 1.0011)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 5.3 - BAL 6.2
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.3 - BAL 6.2
Win Probability: HOU 42.8% - BAL 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +134 / BAL -134
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 9.0: 62.6%
Under 9.0: 28.8%
HOU +1.5: 56.4%
BAL -1.5: 43.6%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.451 / BAL 1.201
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.326 / BAL 0.977
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 3.2 - BAL 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 3.3 - BAL 3.5
F5 Win Prob: HOU 46.9% - BAL 53.1% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +113 / BAL -113
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +108 +134 -5.3%
BAL ML -126 -134 +1.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
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[LEAN] Over 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.2%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (Game 2)
Regular Season | April 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF PHI Lg Avg
Record 13-16 10-19
R/Game 3.39 3.80 4.44
RA/Game 4.06 5.03 4.43
OPS 0.661 0.681 0.714
wOBA 0.286 0.298 0.308
ERA 3.91 4.77 4.14
FIP 3.86 3.61 4.00
WHIP 1.32 1.44 1.32
K/9 8.52 9.38 8.57
Pythag Win% 0.416 0.376 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.09 4.21 4.20
BP FIP 3.74 3.55 4.01
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 9.01 9.03
BP Quality* 40.3 43.5 45.9
BP IP 95.0 111.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Christian Koss, Eric Haase
Christian Koss 2B OPS: 0.677 (174 AB)
Eric Haase C OPS: 0.646 (70 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.1% of full strength
PHI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Alec Bohm, Dylan Moore
Alec Bohm 3B OPS: 0.740 (464 AB)
Dylan Moore CF OPS: 0.641 (219 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 30%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9975 (Temp: 0.9888 | Wind: 1.0088)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.3 - PHI 3.7
Simulated Avg: SF 3.3 - PHI 3.7
Win Probability: SF 45.2% - PHI 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: SF +121 / PHI -121
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 8.0: 29.2%
Under 8.0: 60.7%
SF +1.5: 64.7%
PHI -1.5: 35.3%
Pitcher Adj: SF 1.000 / PHI 1.000
Bullpen Adj: SF 0.877 / PHI 0.949
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.9 - PHI 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.9 - PHI 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SF 45.3% - PHI 54.7% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +121 / PHI -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +120 +121 -0.3%
PHI ML -142 -121 -3.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[HIGH CONVICTION] Under 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.37%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00219
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | April 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Soroka Home: Brandon Woodruff
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 9.76 K/9: 10.93
BB/9: 2.82 BB/9: 1.94
FIP: 3.5 FIP: 3.13
IP: 27.7 IP: 28.7
xERA: 3.53 xERA: 2.22
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.233
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Brandon Woodruff)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI MIL Lg Avg
Record 16-13 15-14
R/Game 4.84 5.05 4.44
RA/Game 5.17 4.13 4.43
OPS 0.739 0.695 0.714
wOBA 0.315 0.300 0.308
ERA 4.68 3.79 4.14
FIP 4.40 3.71 4.00
WHIP 1.35 1.29 1.32
K/9 7.63 9.27 8.57
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.592 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.91 3.89 4.20
BP FIP 4.19 3.67 4.01
BP WHIP 1.26 1.41
BP K/9 8.02 8.86
BP Quality* 49.8 45.2 45.9
BP IP 111.3 118.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: DL Hall (42 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Full strength lineup confirmed
MIL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Gary Sánchez, Blake Perkins, Joey Ortiz
Gary Sánchez C OPS: 0.715 (91 AB)
Blake Perkins LF OPS: 0.646 (155 AB)
Joey Ortiz SS OPS: 0.593 (470 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.3 - MIL 5.4
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.3 - MIL 5.4
Win Probability: ARI 39.2% - MIL 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +155 / MIL -155
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 7.5: 67.3%
Under 7.5: 32.7%
ARI +1.5: 54.5%
MIL -1.5: 45.5%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.089 / MIL 0.866
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.085 / MIL 0.985
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.3 - MIL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.3 - MIL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ARI 39.2% - MIL 60.8% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +155 / MIL -155
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +106 +155 -9.3%
MIL ML -124 -155 +5.4%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[HIGH CONVICTION] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [+180]
Model: 45.5% | Market: 35.7% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: +120 | Kelly: 3.80%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00220
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MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
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[LEAN] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.9%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Athletics
Regular Season | April 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Noah Cameron Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 3.3 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 7.48 K/9: 7.36
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 2.83
FIP: 4.19 FIP: 4.48
IP: 26.3 IP: 35.7
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC ATH Lg Avg
Record 12-18 16-14
R/Game 4.09 4.22 4.44
RA/Game 4.62 4.52 4.43
OPS 0.705 0.716 0.714
wOBA 0.306 0.307 0.308
ERA 4.40 4.33 4.14
FIP 4.35 4.49 4.00
WHIP 1.39 1.41 1.32
K/9 8.67 8.11 8.57
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.13 4.17 4.20
BP FIP 4.75 4.07 4.01
BP WHIP 1.54 1.42
BP K/9 8.80 8.60
BP Quality* 54.0 49.8 45.9
BP IP 100.3 116.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Vinnie Pasquantino, Kyle Isbel
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B OPS: 0.798 (621 AB)
Kyle Isbel CF OPS: 0.654 (368 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.4% of full strength
ATH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Jeff McNeil
Tyler Soderstrom LF OPS: 0.820 (561 AB)
Brent Rooker RF OPS: 0.814 (626 AB)
Jeff McNeil 2B OPS: 0.746 (399 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9750 (Temp: 0.9917 | Wind: 0.9831)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.1 - ATH 4.2
Simulated Avg: KC 4.1 - ATH 4.2
Win Probability: KC 49.6% - ATH 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: KC +102 / ATH -102
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
KC -1.5: 32.7%
KC +1.5: 66.8%
ATH -1.5: 33.2%
ATH +1.5: 67.3%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.956 / ATH 1.042
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.177 / ATH 1.086
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.3 - ATH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.3 - ATH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: KC 53.2% - ATH 46.8% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -114 / ATH +114
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | April 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 3.42 ERA: 4.9
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 8.97 K/9: 7.42
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 2.11
FIP: 3.2 FIP: 4.57
IP: 35.0 IP: 32.0
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR MIN Lg Avg
Record 14-16 13-18
R/Game 4.16 4.68 4.44
RA/Game 4.61 4.77 4.43
OPS 0.701 0.706 0.714
wOBA 0.301 0.310 0.308
ERA 4.20 4.43 4.14
FIP 3.73 3.73 4.00
WHIP 1.30 1.36 1.32
K/9 9.58 8.25 8.57
Pythag Win% 0.453 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.08 5.22 4.20
BP FIP 3.43 3.86 4.01
BP WHIP 1.31 1.56
BP K/9 10.35 8.06
BP Quality* 44.9 52.1 45.9
BP IP 131.7 103.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 47°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (47°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9622 (Temp: 0.9705 | Wind: 0.9915)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.4 - MIN 4.1
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.5 - MIN 4.1
Win Probability: TOR 53.1% - MIN 46.9%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -113 / MIN +113
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 46.2%
Under 8.0: 43.0%
TOR -1.5: 36.7%
MIN +1.5: 63.3%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.832 / MIN 1.106
Bullpen Adj: TOR 0.979 / MIN 1.135
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.5 - MIN 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.5 - MIN 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TOR 55.4% - MIN 44.6% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -124 / MIN +124
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -134 -113 -4.1%
MIN ML +114 +113 +0.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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