2026-05-01
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-01
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zac Gallen Home: Colin Rea
ERA: 4.54 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 7.23
BB/9: 2.94 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 4.26 FIP: 3.95
IP: 28.7 IP: 27.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Colin Rea)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CHC Lg Avg
Record 16-14 19-12
R/Game 4.73 5.39 4.51
RA/Game 5.41 4.29 4.50
OPS 0.731 0.777 0.715
wOBA 0.312 0.335 0.309
ERA 4.92 3.98 4.17
FIP 4.48 4.00 4.00
WHIP 1.38 1.19 1.33
K/9 7.60 8.15 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.603 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.00 3.77 4.22
BP FIP 4.28 4.07 4.00
BP WHIP 1.27 1.25
BP K/9 7.99 8.07
BP Quality* 53.6 45.4 46.0
BP IP 116.3 114.7
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: James McCann (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Philip Abner (34 pitches yesterday)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ketel Marte, James McCann, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Ketel Marte 2B OPS: 0.893 (480 AB)
James McCann C OPS: 0.755 (123 AB)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF OPS: 0.713 (500 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.9% of full strength
CHC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Miguel Amaya
Miguel Amaya C OPS: 0.814 (96 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 44°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Cold (44°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0114 (Temp: 0.9668 | Wind: 1.0461)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.3 - CHC 6.5
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.3 - CHC 6.5
Win Probability: ARI 32.2% - CHC 67.8%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +211 / CHC -211
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 7.0: 74.8%
Under 7.0: 17.3%
ARI +1.5: 46.0%
CHC -1.5: 54.0%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.143 / CHC 0.958
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.166 / CHC 0.986
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.4 - CHC 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.4 - CHC 3.5
F5 Win Prob: ARI 34.3% - CHC 65.7% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +191 / CHC -191
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +132 +211 -10.9%
CHC ML -156 -211 +6.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Over 7.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 22.4%
[LEAN] Chicago Cubs -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +140 | Edge: 12.3%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Jack Flaherty
ERA: 4.2 ERA: 4.76
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 10.73 K/9: 10.41
BB/9: 3.74 BB/9: 4.07
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 4.03
IP: 31.0 IP: 25.3
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX DET Lg Avg
Record 15-16 16-16
R/Game 3.91 4.46 4.51
RA/Game 3.63 4.17 4.50
OPS 0.690 0.743 0.715
wOBA 0.299 0.323 0.309
ERA 3.47 3.96 4.17
FIP 3.91 3.68 4.00
WHIP 1.21 1.31 1.33
K/9 8.91 8.60 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.531 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.91 4.36 4.22
BP FIP 3.83 4.35 4.00
BP WHIP 1.16 1.47
BP K/9 7.78 8.44
BP Quality* 39.4 53.6 46.0
BP IP 108.7 104.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Kyle Finnegan (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 48°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Cool (48°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9855 (Temp: 0.9714 | Wind: 1.0145)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 4.0 - DET 4.1
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.0 - DET 4.1
Win Probability: TEX 49.4% - DET 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +102 / DET -102
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 41.6%
Under 8.0: 47.8%
TEX -1.5: 32.7%
DET +1.5: 67.3%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.967 / DET 1.026
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.857 / DET 1.165
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.1 - DET 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.1 - DET 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TEX 46.4% - DET 53.6% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +116 / DET -116
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML -102 +102 -1.1%
DET ML -116 -102 -3.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brady Singer Home: Mitch Keller
ERA: 4.19 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 8.18 K/9: 7.48
BB/9: 3.01 BB/9: 2.65
FIP: 3.88 FIP: 3.67
IP: 29.0 IP: 34.0
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
Record 20-11 16-16
R/Game 4.30 4.68 4.51
RA/Game 4.37 4.37 4.50
OPS 0.700 0.699 0.715
wOBA 0.304 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.00 3.81 4.17
FIP 4.26 3.50 4.00
WHIP 1.41 1.27 1.33
K/9 8.02 9.18 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 3.75 4.22
BP FIP 4.22 3.69 4.00
BP WHIP 1.40 1.33
BP K/9 9.01 9.37
BP Quality* 46.6 47.2 46.0
BP IP 120.3 137.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chris Devenski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 49°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 48%
Conditions: Cool (49°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9458 (Temp: 0.9726 | Wind: 0.9724)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.9 - PIT 4.4
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.9 - PIT 4.4
Win Probability: CIN 44.4% - PIT 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +125 / PIT -125
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 43.6%
Under 8.0: 45.6%
CIN +1.5: 61.4%
PIT -1.5: 38.6%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.978 / PIT 0.967
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.014 / PIT 1.026
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - PIT 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - PIT 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CIN 45.4% - PIT 54.6% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +120 / PIT -120
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +116 +125 -1.9%
PIT ML -136 -125 -2.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: Jake Irvin
ERA: 4.18 ERA: 5.55
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 12.24 K/9: 6.9
BB/9: 4.12 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 3.33 FIP: 5.19
IP: 32.7 IP: 29.7
xERA: 3.41 xERA: 5.59
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.36
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL WSH Lg Avg
Record 16-14 15-17
R/Game 5.28 5.36 4.51
RA/Game 4.04 5.76 4.50
OPS 0.707 0.716 0.715
wOBA 0.304 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.72 5.10 4.17
FIP 3.62 4.98 4.00
WHIP 1.27 1.46 1.33
K/9 9.39 7.76 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.620 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 4.96 4.22
BP FIP 3.51 5.09 4.00
BP WHIP 1.38 1.47
BP K/9 9.07 7.00
BP Quality* 49.8 56.3 46.0
BP IP 126.3 150.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Grant Anderson (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Shane Drohan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Woodford (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brian Fitzpatrick (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitchell Parker (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9689 (Temp: 0.9933 | Wind: 0.9754)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 6.1 - WSH 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIL 6.2 - WSH 4.9
Win Probability: MIL 59.8% - WSH 40.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -149 / WSH +149
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 8.0: 68.8%
Under 8.0: 22.8%
MIL -1.5: 46.3%
WSH +1.5: 53.7%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.856 / WSH 1.267
Bullpen Adj: MIL 1.082 / WSH 1.223
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 3.5 - WSH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.5 - WSH 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIL 64.6% - WSH 35.4% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -183 / WSH +183
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -156 -149 -1.1%
WSH ML +132 +149 -2.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.4%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Will Warren
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
Record 15-16 20-11
R/Game 4.62 4.97 4.51
RA/Game 5.04 3.51 4.50
OPS 0.720 0.752 0.715
wOBA 0.313 0.322 0.309
ERA 4.33 3.20 4.17
FIP 4.05 3.37 4.00
WHIP 1.41 1.15 1.33
K/9 8.63 8.80 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.654 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.02 3.86 4.22
BP FIP 3.92 3.70 4.00
BP WHIP 1.27 1.35
BP K/9 9.50 8.70
BP Quality* 48.4 46.3 46.0
BP IP 118.3 97.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cameron Foster (32 pitches yesterday)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 55°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Cool (55°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9730 (Temp: 0.9794 | Wind: 0.9935)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.4 - NYY 5.0
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.4 - NYY 5.0
Win Probability: BAL 43.8% - NYY 56.2%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +128 / NYY -128
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.9%
Under 8.5: 45.1%
BAL +1.5: 59.6%
NYY -1.5: 40.4%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.000 / NYY 0.990
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.053 / NYY 1.007
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.5 - NYY 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.4 - NYY 2.7
F5 Win Prob: BAL 45.4% - NYY 54.6% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +120 / NYY -120
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +154 +128 +4.4%
NYY ML -184 -128 -8.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mike Burrows Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BOS Lg Avg
Record 12-20 12-19
R/Game 5.16 4.07 4.51
RA/Game 5.89 4.45 4.50
OPS 0.778 0.670 0.715
wOBA 0.332 0.294 0.309
ERA 5.89 4.28 4.17
FIP 4.93 4.32 4.00
WHIP 1.60 1.31 1.33
K/9 9.46 8.19 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.38 3.64 4.22
BP FIP 5.67 4.21 4.00
BP WHIP 1.67 1.23
BP K/9 9.01 8.37
BP Quality* 66.4 44.0 46.0
BP IP 134.3 115.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Alexander (31 pitches yesterday)
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 55°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (55°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9661 (Temp: 0.9801 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 5.0 - BOS 4.9
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.0 - BOS 4.9
Win Probability: HOU 50.8% - BOS 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -103 / BOS +103
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 9.5: 50.2%
Under 9.5: 49.8%
HOU -1.5: 36.3%
BOS +1.5: 63.7%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.009 / BOS 1.000
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.400 / BOS 0.956
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.9 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.9 - BOS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: HOU 58.2% - BOS 41.8% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -139 / BOS +139
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +102 -103 +1.3%
BOS ML -120 +103 -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robbie Ray Home: Shane McClanahan
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 9.23 K/9: 9.78
BB/9: 3.63 BB/9: 5.09
FIP: 3.9 FIP: 3.19
IP: 33.3 IP: 23.0
xERA: 3.71 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF TB Lg Avg
Record 13-18 18-12
R/Game 3.47 4.54 4.51
RA/Game 4.20 4.54 4.50
OPS 0.662 0.707 0.715
wOBA 0.286 0.306 0.309
ERA 3.94 4.06 4.17
FIP 3.93 4.25 4.00
WHIP 1.32 1.24 1.33
K/9 8.39 8.12 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.412 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.22 4.80 4.22
BP FIP 3.75 4.86 4.00
BP WHIP 1.29 1.39
BP K/9 8.82 8.21
BP Quality* 44.1 52.2 46.0
BP IP 101.7 118.0
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (39 pitches yesterday)
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.4 - TB 4.1
Simulated Avg: SF 3.4 - TB 4.1
Win Probability: SF 41.7% - TB 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: SF +140 / TB -140
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 45.4%
Under 7.5: 54.6%
SF +1.5: 60.4%
TB -1.5: 39.6%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.895 / TB 0.959
Bullpen Adj: SF 0.959 / TB 1.135
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.8 - TB 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.8 - TB 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SF 41.6% - TB 58.4% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +140 / TB -140
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +120 +140 -3.7%
TB ML -142 -140 -0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Eury Pérez
ERA: 2.74 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 11.7 K/9: 9.84
BB/9: 2.08 BB/9: 3.19
FIP: 2.8 FIP: 3.76
IP: 5.0 IP: 31.3
xERA: 2.49 xERA: 3.23
xwOBA: 0.247 xwOBA: 0.281
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
Record 12-19 15-16
R/Game 3.92 4.36 4.51
RA/Game 5.11 4.39 4.50
OPS 0.687 0.711 0.715
wOBA 0.298 0.309 0.309
ERA 4.72 3.99 4.17
FIP 3.52 3.83 4.00
WHIP 1.45 1.27 1.33
K/9 9.47 8.52 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.382 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 3.66 4.22
BP FIP 3.40 3.65 4.00
BP WHIP 1.38 1.30
BP K/9 9.21 9.84
BP Quality* 47.7 43.7 46.0
BP IP 121.7 105.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nolan Hoffman (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (45 pitches yesterday)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9797 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 0.9676)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.2 - MIA 4.2
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.2 - MIA 4.2
Win Probability: PHI 38.2% - MIA 61.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +161 / MIA -161
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.0: 34.0%
Under 8.0: 55.3%
PHI -1.5: 22.1%
MIA +1.5: 78.0%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 1.037 / MIA 0.890
Bullpen Adj: PHI 1.037 / MIA 0.949
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 1.8 - MIA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.8 - MIA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: PHI 39.7% - MIA 60.3% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +152 / MIA -152
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -120 +161 -16.3%
MIA ML +102 -161 +12.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Miami Marlins +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -170 | Edge: 15.0%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Patrick Corbin Home: Simeon Woods Richardson
ERA: 4.32 ERA: 4.43
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.57 K/9: 7.94
BB/9: 2.93 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 4.67
IP: 19.3 IP: 30.0
xERA: 4.77 xERA: 3.82
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Patrick Corbin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR MIN Lg Avg
Record 14-17 14-18
R/Game 4.05 4.76 4.51
RA/Game 4.68 4.67 4.50
OPS 0.694 0.708 0.715
wOBA 0.298 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.30 4.33 4.17
FIP 3.79 3.76 4.00
WHIP 1.30 1.35 1.33
K/9 9.53 8.06 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.433 0.509 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 5.10 4.22
BP FIP 3.40 3.88 4.00
BP WHIP 1.31 1.55
BP K/9 10.44 7.83
BP Quality* 46.8 51.8 46.0
BP IP 134.0 106.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 50°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (50°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9654 (Temp: 0.9736 | Wind: 0.9916)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.2 - MIN 4.9
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.2 - MIN 4.9
Win Probability: TOR 42.9% - MIN 57.1%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +133 / MIN -133
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 50.6%
Under 8.5: 49.4%
TOR -1.5: 27.8%
MIN +1.5: 72.2%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 1.033 / MIN 1.034
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.018 / MIN 1.126
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.2 - MIN 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.2 - MIN 2.7
F5 Win Prob: TOR 42.8% - MIN 57.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +134 / MIN -134
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -106 +133 -8.6%
MIN ML -110 -133 +4.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emmet Sheehan Home: Matthew Liberatore
ERA: 3.1 ERA: 4.3
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 10.73 K/9: 6.97
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 2.52
FIP: 2.98 FIP: 4.33
IP: 26.3 IP: 30.3
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Emmet Sheehan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD STL Lg Avg
Record 20-11 18-13
R/Game 5.35 4.92 4.51
RA/Game 3.37 5.05 4.50
OPS 0.798 0.725 0.715
wOBA 0.338 0.311 0.309
ERA 3.28 4.71 4.17
FIP 3.46 4.46 4.00
WHIP 1.14 1.42 1.33
K/9 9.13 7.05 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.700 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.92 4.99 4.22
BP FIP 3.28 4.11 4.00
BP WHIP 1.23 1.46
BP K/9 9.76 7.78
BP Quality* 40.4 57.8 46.0
BP IP 92.7 120.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9825 (Temp: 0.9836 | Wind: 0.9989)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.9 - STL 4.0
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.9 - STL 4.0
Win Probability: LAD 67.0% - STL 33.0%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -203 / STL +203
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 58.4%
Under 8.5: 41.6%
LAD -1.5: 52.6%
STL +1.5: 47.4%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.769 / STL 1.081
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.878 / STL 1.256
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.1 - STL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.1 - STL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: LAD 66.2% - STL 33.8% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -196 / STL +196
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -178 -203 +3.0%
STL ML +150 +203 -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Grant Holmes Home: Jose Quintana
ERA: 3.93 ERA: 4.07
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 9.17 K/9: 5.89
BB/9: 4.17 BB/9: 3.65
FIP: 4.3 FIP: 4.9
IP: 32.3 IP: 18.3
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 5.2
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Grant Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL COL Lg Avg
Record 22-10 14-18
R/Game 5.44 4.23 4.51
RA/Game 3.56 4.65 4.50
OPS 0.779 0.721 0.715
wOBA 0.334 0.311 0.309
ERA 3.23 4.34 4.17
FIP 3.72 4.36 4.00
WHIP 1.17 1.40 1.33
K/9 8.56 7.89 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.684 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.40 3.93 4.22
BP FIP 3.22 3.93 4.00
BP WHIP 1.14 1.34
BP K/9 9.12 9.05
BP Quality* 42.2 44.4 46.0
BP IP 114.0 146.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Bummer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Suarez (31 pitches yesterday)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0071 (Temp: 0.9848 | Wind: 1.0227)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 6.1 - COL 4.9
Simulated Avg: ATL 6.1 - COL 4.9
Win Probability: ATL 60.2% - COL 39.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -151 / COL +151
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 11.0: 42.3%
Under 11.0: 49.3%
ATL -1.5: 46.5%
COL +1.5: 53.5%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.030 / COL 1.015
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.918 / COL 0.965
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 3.5 - COL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.5 - COL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: ATL 59.1% - COL 40.9% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -145 / COL +145
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -184 -151 -4.6%
COL ML +154 +151 +0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Christian Scott Home: Walbert Urena
ERA: 6.75 ERA: 4.76
WHIP: 3.75 WHIP: 2.21
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 10.32
BB/9: 33.75 BB/9: 7.94
FIP: 13.1 FIP: 4.6
IP: 1.3 IP: 11.3
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Urena)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM LAA Lg Avg
Record 10-21 12-20
R/Game 3.57 4.64 4.51
RA/Game 4.53 5.04 4.50
OPS 0.645 0.727 0.715
wOBA 0.280 0.315 0.309
ERA 4.15 4.63 4.17
FIP 3.60 4.17 4.00
WHIP 1.30 1.45 1.33
K/9 9.27 8.91 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.391 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.04 5.59 4.22
BP FIP 3.60 4.68 4.00
BP WHIP 1.31 1.56
BP K/9 9.17 8.90
BP Quality* 42.8 55.5 46.0
BP IP 122.0 119.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9828 (Temp: 0.9958 | Wind: 0.9869)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.0 - LAA 4.9
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.0 - LAA 4.9
Win Probability: NYM 41.3% - LAA 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +142 / LAA -142
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 40.1%
Under 9.0: 50.0%
NYM -1.5: 26.4%
LAA +1.5: 73.6%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 1.121 / LAA 1.123
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.931 / LAA 1.208
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.2 - LAA 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.2 - LAA 2.9
F5 Win Prob: NYM 38.6% - LAA 61.4% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +159 / LAA -159
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -124 +142 -14.0%
LAA ML +106 -142 +10.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -154 | Edge: 13.0%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Joey Cantillo Home: J.T. Ginn
ERA: 3.17 ERA: 4.87
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 10.18 K/9: 9.51
BB/9: 3.95 BB/9: 3.11
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 4.42
IP: 30.3 IP: 25.0
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Joey Cantillo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE ATH Lg Avg
Record 16-16 17-14
R/Game 3.85 4.26 4.51
RA/Game 4.09 4.46 4.50
OPS 0.684 0.720 0.715
wOBA 0.297 0.308 0.309
ERA 3.76 4.28 4.17
FIP 3.85 4.53 4.00
WHIP 1.23 1.41 1.33
K/9 9.43 8.04 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.26 4.04 4.22
BP FIP 3.83 4.16 4.00
BP WHIP 1.26 1.42
BP K/9 9.75 8.35
BP Quality* 44.1 52.9 46.0
BP IP 105.7 122.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Scott Barlow (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Perkins (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (52 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9675 (Temp: 0.9831 | Wind: 0.9842)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.2 - ATH 3.9
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.2 - ATH 3.9
Win Probability: CLE 53.3% - ATH 46.7%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -114 / ATH +114
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
CLE -1.5: 36.0%
CLE +1.5: 70.0%
ATH -1.5: 30.0%
ATH +1.5: 63.9%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.845 / ATH 1.084
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.959 / ATH 1.150
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.3 - ATH 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.3 - ATH 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CLE 55.0% - ATH 45.0% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -122 / ATH +122
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Noah Schultz Home: Germán Márquez
ERA: 3.52 ERA: 6.37
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.66
K/9: 10.57 K/9: 5.95
BB/9: 5.28 BB/9: 3.3
FIP: 3.36 FIP: 5.35
IP: 15.3 IP: 24.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 5.81
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.366
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Noah Schultz)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS SD Lg Avg
Record 14-17 19-11
R/Game 4.14 4.59 4.51
RA/Game 4.89 4.29 4.50
OPS 0.696 0.696 0.715
wOBA 0.300 0.300 0.309
ERA 4.46 4.14 4.17
FIP 4.32 3.58 4.00
WHIP 1.41 1.30 1.33
K/9 8.02 8.76 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.424 0.531 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.80 3.99 4.22
BP FIP 4.56 3.27 4.00
BP WHIP 1.52 1.29
BP K/9 8.19 8.94
BP Quality* 53.6 41.2 46.0
BP IP 147.7 121.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9852 (Temp: 0.9894 | Wind: 0.9957)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.2 - SD 4.7
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.1 - SD 4.7
Win Probability: CWS 44.4% - SD 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +125 / SD -125
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 48.8%
Under 8.0: 40.8%
CWS +1.5: 61.1%
SD -1.5: 38.9%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 0.980 / SD 1.207
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.166 / SD 0.897
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.6 - SD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.6 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CWS 53.9% - SD 46.1% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -117 / SD +117
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +124 +125 -0.2%
SD ML -146 -125 -3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cole Ragans Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 4.73 ERA: 3.1
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 0.95
K/9: 13.73 K/9: 9.1
BB/9: 3.45 BB/9: 1.71
FIP: 3.0 FIP: 3.4
IP: 27.0 IP: 35.0
xERA: 2.67 xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: 0.256 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: KC (Cole Ragans)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC SEA Lg Avg
Record 12-19 16-16
R/Game 4.06 4.23 4.51
RA/Game 4.68 4.00 4.50
OPS 0.710 0.708 0.715
wOBA 0.307 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.45 3.69 4.17
FIP 4.32 3.52 4.00
WHIP 1.41 1.26 1.33
K/9 8.61 8.22 8.56
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.526 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.14 3.35 4.22
BP FIP 4.77 3.19 4.00
BP WHIP 1.54 1.34
BP K/9 8.63 8.71
BP Quality* 57.3 45.2 46.0
BP IP 103.0 103.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Brash (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0229 (Temp: 0.9897 | Wind: 1.0336)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.3 - SEA 4.8
Simulated Avg: KC 3.3 - SEA 4.8
Win Probability: KC 34.3% - SEA 65.7%
Fair Moneyline: KC +191 / SEA -191
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 52.3%
Under 7.0: 36.4%
KC +1.5: 51.7%
SEA -1.5: 48.3%
Pitcher Adj: KC 1.094 / SEA 0.770
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.246 / SEA 0.982
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 1.6 - SEA 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.6 - SEA 2.5
F5 Win Prob: KC 34.4% - SEA 65.6% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +190 / SEA -190
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +126 +191 -9.9%
SEA ML -148 -191 +6.0%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[HIGH CONVICTION] Seattle Mariners -1.5 (Run Line) [+150]
Model: 48.3% | Market: 40.0% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: +107 | Kelly: 3.48%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00221