2026-05-02
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-02
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Ryan Weathers
ERA: 2.82 ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 12.55 K/9: 9.03
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 2.61 FIP: 4.29
IP: 30.0 IP: 33.7
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Kyle Bradish)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
Record 15-17 21-11
R/Game 4.56 5.02 4.52
RA/Game 5.10 3.45 4.51
OPS 0.713 0.760 0.716
wOBA 0.309 0.326 0.309
ERA 4.41 3.12 4.18
FIP 4.11 3.33 4.01
WHIP 1.43 1.13 1.33
K/9 8.64 8.89 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.666 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.02 3.75 4.20
BP FIP 3.91 3.65 3.99
BP WHIP 1.29 1.33
BP K/9 9.48 8.71
BP Quality* 48.6 45.5 45.9
BP IP 122.3 100.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Tyler Wells (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (65 pitches yesterday)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Amed Rosario, Paul Goldschmidt, Austin Wells
Amed Rosario 3B OPS: 0.745 (181 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt 1B OPS: 0.731 (489 AB)
Austin Wells C OPS: 0.711 (401 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (60°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9711 (Temp: 0.9851 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.2 - NYY 3.9
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.2 - NYY 3.9
Win Probability: BAL 53.1% - NYY 46.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -113 / NYY +113
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 42.3%
Under 8.5: 57.7%
BAL +1.5: 70.0%
NYY -1.5: 30.0%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 0.677 / NYY 0.973
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.058 / NYY 0.991
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.4 - NYY 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.4 - NYY 1.8
F5 Win Prob: BAL 61.2% - NYY 38.8% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -158 / NYY +158
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +144 -113 +12.2%
NYY ML -172 +113 -16.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -134 | Edge: 12.7%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dylan Cease Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 4.26 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 0.89
K/9: 11.96 K/9: 11.0
BB/9: 3.99 BB/9: 3.0
FIP: 3.12 FIP: 1.66
IP: 31.3 IP: 9.0
xERA: 3.46 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Connor Prielipp)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR MIN Lg Avg
Record 15-17 14-19
R/Game 4.11 4.72 4.52
RA/Game 4.64 4.73 4.51
OPS 0.697 0.708 0.716
wOBA 0.299 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.26 4.34 4.18
FIP 3.76 3.83 4.01
WHIP 1.30 1.36 1.33
K/9 9.55 7.90 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 5.00 4.20
BP FIP 3.32 3.86 3.99
BP WHIP 1.32 1.52
BP K/9 10.58 7.60
BP Quality* 46.2 54.2 45.9
BP IP 137.7 111.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eric Orze (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Heineman, Jesús Sánchez
Tyler Heineman C OPS: 0.777 (149 AB)
Jesús Sánchez LF OPS: 0.699 (451 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Martin, Victor Caratini
Austin Martin LF OPS: 0.739 (156 AB)
Victor Caratini C OPS: 0.728 (344 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9752 (Temp: 0.9887 | Wind: 0.9863)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.1 - MIN 4.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.1 - MIN 4.2
Win Probability: TOR 49.6% - MIN 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +102 / MIN -102
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 43.1%
Under 8.0: 45.9%
TOR -1.5: 32.9%
MIN +1.5: 67.1%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.843 / MIN 1.023
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.007 / MIN 1.180
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.2 - MIN 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.2 - MIN 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TOR 51.1% - MIN 48.9% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -104 / MIN +104
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -132 +102 -7.3%
MIN ML +112 -102 +3.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryne Nelson Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 4.13 ERA: 3.58
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 0.97
K/9: 7.83 K/9: 7.74
BB/9: 2.65 BB/9: 1.75
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 4.47
IP: 25.7 IP: 34.3
xERA: 3.93 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Ryne Nelson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CHC Lg Avg
Record 16-15 20-12
R/Game 4.73 5.42 4.52
RA/Game 5.44 4.32 4.51
OPS 0.730 0.775 0.716
wOBA 0.311 0.335 0.309
ERA 4.98 3.99 4.18
FIP 4.46 3.96 4.01
WHIP 1.38 1.20 1.33
K/9 7.53 8.30 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.603 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.85 3.87 4.20
BP FIP 4.23 4.09 3.99
BP WHIP 1.24 1.25
BP K/9 7.86 8.31
BP Quality* 49.7 45.8 45.9
BP IP 120.7 118.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (36 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Gabriel Moreno, Adrian Del Castillo
Gabriel Moreno C OPS: 0.786 (277 AB)
Adrian Del Castillo C OPS: 0.682 (120 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
CHC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Carson Kelly, Nico Hoerner
Carson Kelly C OPS: 0.761 (369 AB)
Nico Hoerner 2B OPS: 0.739 (599 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 52°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (52°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9757 (Temp: 0.9761 | Wind: 0.9996)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.5 - CHC 5.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.5 - CHC 5.9
Win Probability: ARI 37.6% - CHC 62.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +166 / CHC -166
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 7.0: 72.3%
Under 7.0: 19.3%
ARI +1.5: 52.0%
CHC -1.5: 48.0%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.110 / CHC 0.983
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.084 / CHC 0.997
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.5 - CHC 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.5 - CHC 3.3
F5 Win Prob: ARI 38.7% - CHC 61.3% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +158 / CHC -158
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +136 +166 -4.8%
CHC ML -162 -166 +0.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Over 7.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 19.9%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Slade Cecconi Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE ATH Lg Avg
Record 17-16 17-15
R/Game 3.97 4.27 4.52
RA/Game 4.12 4.55 4.51
OPS 0.694 0.720 0.716
wOBA 0.300 0.309 0.309
ERA 3.80 4.38 4.18
FIP 3.88 4.55 4.01
WHIP 1.24 1.43 1.33
K/9 9.35 8.06 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 4.09 4.20
BP FIP 3.82 4.22 3.99
BP WHIP 1.27 1.44
BP K/9 9.66 8.37
BP Quality* 46.9 51.9 45.9
BP IP 110.7 126.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Brady Basso (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Wynns
Austin Wynns C OPS: 0.865 (103 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9623 (Temp: 0.9866 | Wind: 0.9754)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 4.1 - ATH 4.6
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.1 - ATH 4.5
Win Probability: CLE 44.9% - ATH 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +123 / ATH -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
CLE -1.5: 29.2%
CLE +1.5: 61.7%
ATH -1.5: 38.3%
ATH +1.5: 70.8%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 1.142 / ATH 1.000
Bullpen Adj: CLE 1.022 / ATH 1.131
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.2 - ATH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.2 - ATH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CLE 42.6% - ATH 57.4% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +134 / ATH -134
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Rhett Lowder Home: Carmen Mlodzinski
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 6.62 K/9: 8.3
BB/9: 2.65 BB/9: 2.6
FIP: 2.89 FIP: 3.02
IP: 34.0 IP: 28.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
Record 20-12 17-16
R/Game 4.21 4.83 4.52
RA/Game 4.50 4.29 4.51
OPS 0.689 0.716 0.716
wOBA 0.300 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.16 3.73 4.18
FIP 4.45 3.45 4.01
WHIP 1.43 1.24 1.33
K/9 7.95 9.18 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.554 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.69 3.70 4.20
BP FIP 4.46 3.65 3.99
BP WHIP 1.44 1.32
BP K/9 8.97 9.39
BP Quality* 51.7 46.8 45.9
BP IP 125.0 139.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Trevino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zach Maxwell (42 pitches yesterday)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Devenski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jake Mangum, Joey Bart, Jared Triolo
Jake Mangum LF OPS: 0.698 (405 AB)
Joey Bart C OPS: 0.695 (285 AB)
Jared Triolo SS OPS: 0.667 (331 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 45°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 30%
Conditions: Cold (45°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9649 (Temp: 0.9672 | Wind: 0.9976)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.7 - PIT 4.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.6 - PIT 4.0
Win Probability: CIN 46.4% - PIT 53.6%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +116 / PIT -116
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 36.4%
Under 8.5: 63.6%
CIN +1.5: 64.3%
PIT -1.5: 35.7%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.719 / PIT 0.883
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.127 / PIT 1.019
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 1.9 - PIT 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.9 - PIT 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CIN 53.6% - PIT 46.4% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -116 / PIT +116
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +114 +116 -0.4%
PIT ML -134 -116 -3.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.3%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 3.79 ERA: 2.67
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 9.85 K/9: 8.02
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 2.67
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 4.14
IP: 23.7 IP: 33.7
xERA: 4.16 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Kyle Harrison)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL WSH Lg Avg
Record 17-14 15-18
R/Game 5.31 5.27 4.52
RA/Game 3.96 5.77 4.51
OPS 0.707 0.707 0.716
wOBA 0.305 0.304 0.309
ERA 3.64 5.03 4.18
FIP 3.57 4.95 4.01
WHIP 1.26 1.47 1.33
K/9 9.51 7.74 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.631 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 4.82 4.20
BP FIP 3.50 5.05 3.99
BP WHIP 1.38 1.47
BP K/9 9.16 6.90
BP Quality* 46.6 58.6 45.9
BP IP 130.0 154.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brian Fitzpatrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (45 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cionel Pérez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paxton Schultz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andre Granillo (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 0.9890 | Wind: 1.0143)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.2 - WSH 5.0
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.2 - WSH 5.0
Win Probability: MIL 52.1% - WSH 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -109 / WSH +109
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 7.5: 71.4%
Under 7.5: 28.6%
MIL -1.5: 37.7%
WSH +1.5: 62.3%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.885 / WSH 0.850
Bullpen Adj: MIL 1.016 / WSH 1.277
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.4 - WSH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.5 - WSH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 48.2% - WSH 51.8% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +107 / WSH -107
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -134 -109 -5.1%
WSH ML +114 +109 +1.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 19.1%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Spencer Arrighetti Home: Connelly Early
ERA: 5.06 ERA: 2.84
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.12 K/9: 7.96
BB/9: 5.04 BB/9: 3.98
FIP: 5.06 FIP: 4.3
IP: 18.0 IP: 31.7
xERA: 5.44 xERA: 2.35
xwOBA: 0.356 xwOBA: 0.24
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Connelly Early)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BOS Lg Avg
Record 12-21 13-19
R/Game 5.07 4.02 4.52
RA/Game 5.86 4.36 4.51
OPS 0.779 0.672 0.716
wOBA 0.333 0.295 0.309
ERA 5.88 4.19 4.18
FIP 4.93 4.32 4.01
WHIP 1.61 1.32 1.33
K/9 9.34 8.12 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.38 3.53 4.20
BP FIP 5.67 4.15 3.99
BP WHIP 1.67 1.24
BP K/9 8.92 8.32
BP Quality* 63.5 44.9 45.9
BP IP 136.3 119.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Andruw Monasterio, Carlos Narváez
Andruw Monasterio SS OPS: 0.756 (126 AB)
Carlos Narváez C OPS: 0.725 (403 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 52°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 41%
Conditions: Cool (52°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9781 (Temp: 0.9764 | Wind: 1.0018)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.4 - BOS 5.5
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.4 - BOS 5.5
Win Probability: HOU 40.1% - BOS 59.9%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +149 / BOS -149
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 48.8%
Under 9.0: 41.1%
HOU +1.5: 55.4%
BOS -1.5: 44.6%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.328 / BOS 0.778
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.383 / BOS 0.978
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - BOS 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - BOS 2.9
F5 Win Prob: HOU 39.2% - BOS 60.8% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +155 / BOS -155
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +116 +149 -6.2%
BOS ML -134 -149 +2.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Painter Home: Max Meyer
ERA: 5.25 ERA: 4.48
WHIP: 1.5 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 7.88 K/9: 9.54
BB/9: 2.25 BB/9: 2.92
FIP: 3.18 FIP: 4.11
IP: 24.0 IP: 30.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.8
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Andrew Painter)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
Record 13-19 15-17
R/Game 3.95 4.38 4.52
RA/Game 5.14 4.42 4.51
OPS 0.686 0.710 0.716
wOBA 0.298 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.75 4.03 4.18
FIP 3.47 3.80 4.01
WHIP 1.45 1.28 1.33
K/9 9.56 8.58 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.383 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 3.82 4.20
BP FIP 3.35 3.69 3.99
BP WHIP 1.40 1.30
BP K/9 9.28 9.86
BP Quality* 52.6 44.4 45.9
BP IP 124.7 109.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: DEPLETED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Jonathan Bowlan (B2B, 31 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Brad Keller (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (50 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Christopher Morel, Javier Sanoja
Christopher Morel LF OPS: 0.685 (278 AB)
Javier Sanoja 3B OPS: 0.683 (313 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9911 (Temp: 1.0303 | Wind: 0.9619)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.7 - MIA 4.7
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.6 - MIA 4.7
Win Probability: PHI 39.2% - MIA 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +155 / MIA -155
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 43.5%
Under 8.5: 56.5%
PHI +1.5: 56.6%
MIA -1.5: 43.4%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 1.184 / MIA 1.063
Bullpen Adj: PHI 1.147 / MIA 0.967
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.1 - MIA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.1 - MIA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PHI 42.2% - MIA 57.8% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +137 / MIA -137
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML +112 +155 -8.0%
MIA ML -132 -155 +3.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Landen Roupp Home: Griffin Jax
ERA: 3.59 ERA: 4.29
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.75 K/9: 13.39
BB/9: 3.76 BB/9: 2.96
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 2.55
IP: 35.3 IP: 11.3
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 3.26
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: TB (Griffin Jax)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF TB Lg Avg
Record 13-19 19-12
R/Game 3.34 4.50 4.52
RA/Game 4.16 4.42 4.51
OPS 0.655 0.704 0.716
wOBA 0.283 0.304 0.309
ERA 3.93 3.94 4.18
FIP 3.96 4.17 4.01
WHIP 1.30 1.22 1.33
K/9 8.34 8.06 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.400 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.17 4.71 4.20
BP FIP 3.72 4.83 3.99
BP WHIP 1.29 1.37
BP K/9 8.80 8.11
BP Quality* 40.8 51.7 45.9
BP IP 103.3 121.0
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.3 - TB 4.0
Simulated Avg: SF 3.3 - TB 4.0
Win Probability: SF 41.5% - TB 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +141 / TB -141
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.5: 42.8%
Under 7.5: 57.2%
SF -1.5: 24.6%
TB +1.5: 75.4%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.912 / TB 0.976
Bullpen Adj: SF 0.889 / TB 1.126
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.7 - TB 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.7 - TB 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SF 40.3% - TB 59.7% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +148 / TB -148
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML -110 +141 -10.9%
TB ML -106 -141 +7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -188 | Edge: 10.2%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Roki Sasaki Home: Michael McGreevy
ERA: 4.73 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.2 K/9: 5.5
BB/9: 5.41 BB/9: 1.79
FIP: 5.72 FIP: 4.16
IP: 22.7 IP: 33.3
xERA: 5.66 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.362 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: STL (Michael McGreevy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD STL Lg Avg
Record 20-12 19-13
R/Game 5.26 4.99 4.52
RA/Game 3.45 4.97 4.51
OPS 0.794 0.732 0.716
wOBA 0.337 0.314 0.309
ERA 3.35 4.64 4.18
FIP 3.47 4.44 4.01
WHIP 1.14 1.41 1.33
K/9 9.21 7.00 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.685 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 4.90 4.20
BP FIP 3.23 4.12 3.99
BP WHIP 1.24 1.46
BP K/9 9.72 7.70
BP Quality* 41.8 57.5 45.9
BP IP 96.0 124.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (57°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0100 (Temp: 0.9822 | Wind: 1.0283)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.8 - STL 4.7
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.8 - STL 4.7
Win Probability: LAD 59.2% - STL 40.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -145 / STL +145
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 8.5: 64.0%
Under 8.5: 36.0%
LAD -1.5: 45.1%
STL +1.5: 54.9%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.933 / STL 1.039
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.911 / STL 1.253
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.0 - STL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.0 - STL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 56.0% - STL 44.0% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -128 / STL +128
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -136 -145 +1.6%
STL ML +116 +145 -5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[LEAN] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.7%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kumar Rocker Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 5.4 ERA: 4.32
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 7.77 K/9: 7.22
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 2.88
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 4.56
IP: 26.7 IP: 27.0
xERA: 5.73 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.364 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX DET Lg Avg
Record 16-16 16-17
R/Game 3.93 4.44 4.52
RA/Game 3.63 4.19 4.51
OPS 0.693 0.737 0.716
wOBA 0.300 0.321 0.309
ERA 3.48 3.99 4.18
FIP 3.89 3.66 4.01
WHIP 1.21 1.32 1.33
K/9 8.84 8.67 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.536 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.83 4.24 4.20
BP FIP 3.78 4.21 3.99
BP WHIP 1.14 1.45
BP K/9 7.65 8.62
BP Quality* 40.3 50.8 45.9
BP IP 114.0 110.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Burch Smith (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 48°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (48°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9676 (Temp: 0.9710 | Wind: 0.9966)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.8 - DET 4.2
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.8 - DET 4.2
Win Probability: TEX 45.9% - DET 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +118 / DET -118
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 40.5%
Under 8.5: 59.5%
TEX +1.5: 63.6%
DET -1.5: 36.4%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 1.016 / DET 0.986
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.878 / DET 1.106
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.0 - DET 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.0 - DET 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TEX 43.4% - DET 56.6% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +130 / DET -130
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +110 +118 -1.7%
DET ML -130 -118 -2.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.75%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00222
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chris Sale Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL COL Lg Avg
Record 23-10 14-19
R/Game 5.54 4.30 4.52
RA/Game 3.60 4.70 4.51
OPS 0.785 0.722 0.716
wOBA 0.336 0.313 0.309
ERA 3.24 4.38 4.18
FIP 3.74 4.40 4.01
WHIP 1.17 1.39 1.33
K/9 8.45 7.85 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.686 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.26 4.16 4.20
BP FIP 3.20 4.03 3.99
BP WHIP 1.12 1.37
BP K/9 8.91 9.09
BP Quality* 37.1 47.3 45.9
BP IP 118.0 149.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9909 (Temp: 0.9948 | Wind: 0.9961)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 6.3 - COL 3.5
Simulated Avg: ATL 6.3 - COL 3.5
Win Probability: ATL 73.6% - COL 26.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -279 / COL +279
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.5: 48.6%
Under 9.5: 51.4%
ATL -1.5: 59.9%
COL +1.5: 40.1%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.639 / COL 1.000
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.808 / COL 1.030
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 3.5 - COL 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.5 - COL 1.8
F5 Win Prob: ATL 75.1% - COL 24.9% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -302 / COL +302
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -220 -279 +4.9%
COL ML +184 +279 -8.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sean Burke Home: Michael King
ERA: 4.1 ERA: 3.26
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.63 K/9: 9.29
BB/9: 3.95 BB/9: 3.33
FIP: 4.6 FIP: 4.11
IP: 33.7 IP: 33.7
xERA: 4.96 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: SD (Michael King)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS SD Lg Avg
Record 15-17 19-12
R/Game 4.26 4.52 4.52
RA/Game 4.82 4.41 4.51
OPS 0.702 0.692 0.716
wOBA 0.302 0.298 0.309
ERA 4.40 4.27 4.18
FIP 4.29 3.67 4.01
WHIP 1.41 1.31 1.33
K/9 7.93 8.65 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.84 3.97 4.20
BP FIP 4.54 3.27 3.99
BP WHIP 1.53 1.29
BP K/9 8.18 8.85
BP Quality* 55.2 44.2 45.9
BP IP 150.7 125.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Osvaldo Bido (31 pitches yesterday)
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (41 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0002 (Temp: 0.9918 | Wind: 1.0085)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 3.8 - SD 5.1
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.8 - SD 5.0
Win Probability: CWS 37.6% - SD 62.4%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +166 / SD -166
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 59.9%
Under 7.5: 40.1%
CWS +1.5: 54.1%
SD -1.5: 45.9%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 1.101 / SD 0.946
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.203 / SD 0.963
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.1 - SD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.1 - SD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CWS 40.6% - SD 59.4% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +146 / SD -146
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +154 +166 -1.8%
SD ML -184 -166 -2.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.94%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00223
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nolan McLean Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 2.14 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 10.82 K/9: 11.02
BB/9: 2.92 BB/9: 3.34
FIP: 2.7 FIP: 2.98
IP: 35.3 IP: 33.7
xERA: 3.51 xERA: 3.61
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM LAA Lg Avg
Record 11-21 12-21
R/Game 3.55 4.61 4.52
RA/Game 4.49 5.01 4.51
OPS 0.642 0.719 0.716
wOBA 0.280 0.312 0.309
ERA 4.09 4.61 4.18
FIP 3.53 4.16 4.01
WHIP 1.27 1.44 1.33
K/9 9.42 8.85 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.392 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.93 5.64 4.20
BP FIP 3.50 4.74 3.99
BP WHIP 1.27 1.57
BP K/9 9.31 8.77
BP Quality* 46.2 57.5 45.9
BP IP 126.0 123.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9727 (Temp: 0.9915 | Wind: 0.9811)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.4 - LAA 3.8
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.4 - LAA 3.8
Win Probability: NYM 46.0% - LAA 54.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +118 / LAA -118
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 41.9%
Under 7.5: 58.1%
NYM -1.5: 28.1%
LAA +1.5: 71.9%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.680 / LAA 0.827
Bullpen Adj: NYM 1.006 / LAA 1.252
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 1.6 - LAA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.6 - LAA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: NYM 47.1% - LAA 52.9% (Tie: 21.5%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +112 / LAA -112
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -130 +118 -10.6%
LAA ML +110 -118 +6.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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MODEL LEANS (display only — not logged)
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[LEAN] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -154 | Edge: 11.2%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Seth Lugo Home: Emerson Hancock
ERA: 3.89 ERA: 4.55
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.68 K/9: 6.73
BB/9: 3.28 BB/9: 2.84
FIP: 4.54 FIP: 4.8
IP: 37.7 IP: 34.7
xERA: 5.16 xERA: 5.51
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: 0.358
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC SEA Lg Avg
Record 13-19 16-17
R/Game 4.14 4.27 4.52
RA/Game 4.74 4.07 4.51
OPS 0.714 0.711 0.716
wOBA 0.308 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.52 3.78 4.18
FIP 4.44 3.56 4.01
WHIP 1.41 1.26 1.33
K/9 8.76 8.17 8.55
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.521 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.17 3.32 4.20
BP FIP 4.82 3.14 3.99
BP WHIP 1.54 1.35
BP K/9 8.77 8.88
BP Quality* 56.1 40.4 45.9
BP IP 106.7 106.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jose A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0375 (Temp: 0.9939 | Wind: 1.0439)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.2 - SEA 4.9
Simulated Avg: KC 4.2 - SEA 4.9
Win Probability: KC 43.4% - SEA 56.6%
Fair Moneyline: KC +131 / SEA -131
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 7.5: 62.1%
Under 7.5: 37.9%
KC +1.5: 59.3%
SEA -1.5: 40.7%
Pitcher Adj: KC 1.099 / SEA 1.193
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.222 / SEA 0.880
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.6 - SEA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.6 - SEA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: KC 51.1% - SEA 48.9% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -105 / SEA +105
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +124 +131 -1.3%
SEA ML -146 -131 -2.7%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[HIGH CONVICTION] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -164 | Kelly: 5.11%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00224