2026-05-03
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-03
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trey Yesavage Home: Joe Ryan
ERA: 0.96 ERA: 3.49
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 8.68 K/9: 10.0
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 2.11
FIP: 2.13 FIP: 3.34
IP: 9.3 IP: 38.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Trey Yesavage)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR MIN Lg Avg
Record 16-18 15-20
R/Game 4.23 4.71 4.49
RA/Game 4.61 4.86 4.48
OPS 0.705 0.707 0.715
wOBA 0.303 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.24 4.46 4.16
FIP 3.69 3.98 3.99
WHIP 1.30 1.37 1.33
K/9 9.53 7.80 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 5.48 4.20
BP FIP 3.29 4.13 3.98
BP WHIP 1.30 1.56
BP K/9 10.48 7.36
BP Quality* 42.9 57.4 45.9
BP IP 139.7 115.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Topa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis García (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: George Springer, Davis Schneider, Myles Straw
George Springer DH OPS: 0.959 (498 AB)
Davis Schneider LF OPS: 0.797 (188 AB)
Myles Straw RF OPS: 0.680 (267 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.0% of full strength
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell
Ryan Jeffers C OPS: 0.753 (406 AB)
Josh Bell 1B OPS: 0.742 (468 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0353 (Temp: 0.9954 | Wind: 1.0400)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.9 - MIN 4.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.9 - MIN 4.3
Win Probability: TOR 46.3% - MIN 53.7%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +116 / MIN -116
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
TOR -1.5: 29.7%
TOR +1.5: 63.6%
MIN -1.5: 36.4%
MIN +1.5: 70.3%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.861 / MIN 0.819
Bullpen Adj: TOR 0.934 / MIN 1.251
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.8 - MIN 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.8 - MIN 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TOR 41.1% - MIN 58.9% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +143 / MIN -143
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cody Bolton Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 4.63 ERA: 3.11
WHIP: 1.8 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 10.8 K/9: 8.39
BB/9: 6.94 BB/9: 2.2
FIP: 4.13 FIP: 3.09
IP: 11.7 IP: 39.0
xERA: 6.43 xERA: 3.16
xwOBA: 0.382 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BOS Lg Avg
Record 14-21 13-21
R/Game 5.09 3.85 4.49
RA/Game 5.74 4.38 4.48
OPS 0.788 0.670 0.715
wOBA 0.335 0.295 0.309
ERA 5.75 4.22 4.16
FIP 4.92 4.34 3.99
WHIP 1.62 1.34 1.33
K/9 9.28 8.07 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.48 3.47 4.20
BP FIP 5.71 4.21 3.98
BP WHIP 1.69 1.25
BP K/9 8.79 8.26
BP Quality* 68.7 45.0 45.9
BP IP 140.3 124.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Yainer Diaz, Daniel Johnson
Yainer Diaz C OPS: 0.701 (542 AB)
Daniel Johnson CF OPS: 0.548 (53 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.4% of full strength
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Trevor Story
Trevor Story SS OPS: 0.741 (612 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 53°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (53°F), strong crosswind (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9554 (Temp: 0.9767 | Wind: 0.9782)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.2 - BOS 5.1
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.1 - BOS 5.1
Win Probability: HOU 40.6% - BOS 59.4%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +147 / BOS -147
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
HOU -1.5: 26.2%
HOU +1.5: 56.3%
BOS -1.5: 43.7%
BOS +1.5: 73.8%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.275 / BOS 0.750
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.400 / BOS 0.980
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.1 - BOS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.1 - BOS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: HOU 39.6% - BOS 60.4% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +152 / BOS -152
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chase Burns Home: Braxton Ashcraft
ERA: 4.1 ERA: 2.77
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 13.16 K/9: 9.28
BB/9: 3.23 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 2.77 FIP: 2.7
IP: 41.0 IP: 41.7
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
Record 20-14 19-16
R/Game 4.16 5.14 4.49
RA/Game 4.78 4.26 4.48
OPS 0.688 0.732 0.715
wOBA 0.299 0.318 0.309
ERA 4.48 3.72 4.16
FIP 4.45 3.40 3.99
WHIP 1.49 1.23 1.33
K/9 7.95 9.30 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.586 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 3.73 4.20
BP FIP 4.43 3.70 3.98
BP WHIP 1.52 1.31
BP K/9 9.08 9.42
BP Quality* 58.2 45.5 45.9
BP IP 131.7 142.3
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: DEPLETED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Sam Moll (B2B, 40 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Jose Trevino (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Connor Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (39 pitches yesterday)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Devenski (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Stephenson
Tyler Stephenson C OPS: 0.737 (299 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.9% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jake Mangum, Jared Triolo
Jake Mangum LF OPS: 0.698 (405 AB)
Jared Triolo SS OPS: 0.667 (331 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9544 (Temp: 0.9862 | Wind: 0.9678)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.1 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.1 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: CIN 32.4% - PIT 67.6%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +209 / PIT -209
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
CIN -1.5: 18.0%
CIN +1.5: 50.0%
PIT -1.5: 50.0%
PIT +1.5: 82.0%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.806 / PIT 0.715
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.268 / PIT 0.991
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 1.5 - PIT 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.5 - PIT 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CIN 37.3% - PIT 62.7% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +168 / PIT -168
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trey Gibson Home: Max Fried
ERA: 5.79 ERA: 2.75
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 3.86 K/9: 8.4
BB/9: 3.86 BB/9: 2.4
FIP: 9.06 FIP: 2.81
IP: 4.7 IP: 52.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
Record 15-19 23-11
R/Game 4.52 5.29 4.49
RA/Game 5.40 3.41 4.48
OPS 0.705 0.785 0.715
wOBA 0.307 0.335 0.309
ERA 4.75 3.04 4.16
FIP 4.32 3.30 3.99
WHIP 1.48 1.12 1.33
K/9 8.53 8.86 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.420 0.691 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 3.65 4.20
BP FIP 3.98 3.64 3.98
BP WHIP 1.30 1.32
BP K/9 9.47 8.60
BP Quality* 49.5 45.1 45.9
BP IP 126.3 104.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keegan Akin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Gunnar Henderson, Dylan Beavers
Gunnar Henderson SS OPS: 0.787 (577 AB)
Dylan Beavers RF OPS: 0.775 (110 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.6% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Amed Rosario, Paul Goldschmidt
Amed Rosario 3B OPS: 0.745 (181 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt 1B OPS: 0.731 (489 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (57°F), strong wind in (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9545 (Temp: 0.9816 | Wind: 0.9723)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 3.3 - NYY 5.7
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.3 - NYY 5.7
Win Probability: BAL 27.8% - NYY 72.2%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +260 / NYY -260
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 50.5%
Under 8.5: 49.5%
BAL +1.5: 43.0%
NYY -1.5: 57.0%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.193 / NYY 0.720
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.078 / NYY 0.983
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 1.6 - NYY 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.6 - NYY 3.2
F5 Win Prob: BAL 24.5% - NYY 75.5% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +309 / NYY -309
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +166 +260 -9.8%
NYY ML -198 -260 +5.8%
BAL +1.5 -128 +132 -13.1%
NYY -1.5 +106 -132 +8.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[HIGH CONVICTION] New York Yankees -1.5 (Run Line) [+106]
Model: 57.0% | Market: 48.5% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -132 | Kelly: 4.08%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00227
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Henderson Home: PJ Poulin
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 0.88 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 12.38 K/9: 6.23
BB/9: 1.13 BB/9: 4.67
FIP: 0.73 FIP: 5.53
IP: 8.0 IP: 17.3
xERA: 3.69 xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL WSH Lg Avg
Record 18-15 16-19
R/Game 5.20 5.14 4.49
RA/Game 3.85 5.63 4.48
OPS 0.692 0.702 0.715
wOBA 0.299 0.302 0.309
ERA 3.56 4.81 4.16
FIP 3.46 4.87 3.99
WHIP 1.25 1.45 1.33
K/9 9.45 7.63 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.634 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.65 4.74 4.20
BP FIP 3.47 5.04 3.98
BP WHIP 1.37 1.48
BP K/9 9.05 6.85
BP Quality* 44.7 55.4 45.9
BP IP 133.0 157.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brad Lord (50 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Brice Turang, Blake Perkins
Brice Turang 2B OPS: 0.794 (584 AB)
Blake Perkins LF OPS: 0.646 (155 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Curtis Mead
Joey Wiemer RF OPS: 0.715 (55 AB)
Curtis Mead 1B OPS: 0.620 (240 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), crosswind (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9857 (Temp: 0.9863 | Wind: 0.9994)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.2 - WSH 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.3 - WSH 4.6
Win Probability: MIL 55.9% - WSH 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -127 / WSH +127
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
MIL -1.5: 41.0%
MIL +1.5: 70.4%
WSH -1.5: 29.6%
WSH +1.5: 59.0%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.901 / WSH 1.043
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.975 / WSH 1.207
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.8 - WSH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.8 - WSH 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 54.9% - WSH 45.1% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -121 / WSH +121
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Steven Matz
ERA: 2.74 ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 7.18 K/9: 6.89
BB/9: 3.31 BB/9: 1.66
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 3.63
IP: 36.0 IP: 37.3
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF TB Lg Avg
Record 13-21 21-12
R/Game 3.15 4.45 4.49
RA/Game 4.12 4.24 4.48
OPS 0.644 0.703 0.715
wOBA 0.279 0.303 0.309
ERA 3.87 3.76 4.16
FIP 3.94 4.07 3.99
WHIP 1.32 1.19 1.33
K/9 8.28 7.90 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.379 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.04 4.61 4.20
BP FIP 3.75 4.71 3.98
BP WHIP 1.28 1.36
BP K/9 8.73 8.03
BP Quality* 43.5 52.2 45.9
BP IP 107.0 127.3
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Borucki (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jesse Scholtens (47 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Christian Koss
Christian Koss 2B OPS: 0.677 (174 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.8% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Yandy Díaz, Jonny DeLuca
Yandy Díaz 1B OPS: 0.848 (583 AB)
Jonny DeLuca RF OPS: 0.812 (57 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 2.8 - TB 3.7
Simulated Avg: SF 2.8 - TB 3.7
Win Probability: SF 38.9% - TB 61.1%
Fair Moneyline: SF +157 / TB -157
Avg Total Runs: 6.5
SF -1.5: 21.1%
SF +1.5: 59.4%
TB -1.5: 40.6%
TB +1.5: 78.9%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.871 / TB 0.826
Bullpen Adj: SF 0.948 / TB 1.137
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.4 - TB 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.4 - TB 1.9
F5 Win Prob: SF 36.8% - TB 63.2% (Tie: 21.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +171 / TB -171
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Chris Paddack
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 5.74
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 10.72 K/9: 6.64
BB/9: 2.63 BB/9: 2.25
FIP: 2.75 FIP: 4.93
IP: 40.7 IP: 30.7
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 5.03
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.344
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
Record 14-20 16-18
R/Game 3.88 4.30 4.49
RA/Game 5.09 4.34 4.48
OPS 0.674 0.714 0.715
wOBA 0.294 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.72 3.97 4.16
FIP 3.46 3.72 3.99
WHIP 1.46 1.25 1.33
K/9 9.64 8.57 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.379 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.37 3.73 4.20
BP FIP 3.32 3.59 3.98
BP WHIP 1.43 1.28
BP K/9 9.30 10.02
BP Quality* 52.7 42.0 45.9
BP IP 127.7 111.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Banks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Keller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Edmundo Sosa, Adolis García
Edmundo Sosa 2B OPS: 0.776 (243 AB)
Adolis García RF OPS: 0.665 (507 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.5% of full strength
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jakob Marsee, Liam Hicks, Graham Pauley
Jakob Marsee CF OPS: 0.841 (209 AB)
Liam Hicks C OPS: 0.692 (332 AB)
Graham Pauley 3B OPS: 0.677 (161 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 29%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0095 (Temp: 1.0112 | Wind: 0.9983)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.8 - MIA 3.6
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.8 - MIA 3.6
Win Probability: PHI 51.8% - MIA 48.2%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -108 / MIA +108
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.5: 34.2%
Under 8.5: 65.8%
PHI -1.5: 33.9%
MIA +1.5: 66.1%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.794 / MIA 1.242
Bullpen Adj: PHI 1.148 / MIA 0.914
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.4 - MIA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.4 - MIA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: PHI 63.4% - MIA 36.5% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -174 / MIA +174
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -116 -108 -1.9%
MIA ML -102 +108 -2.3%
PHI -1.5 +146 +195 -6.8%
MIA +1.5 -176 -195 +2.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -18.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +13.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.5%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Justin Wrobleski Home: Dustin May
ERA: 3.88 ERA: 5.0
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 9.33 K/9: 7.92
BB/9: 2.33 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 2.81 FIP: 4.36
IP: 36.0 IP: 36.7
xERA: 3.41 xERA: 5.2
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Justin Wrobleski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD STL Lg Avg
Record 21-13 20-14
R/Game 5.15 4.86 4.49
RA/Game 3.32 4.88 4.48
OPS 0.789 0.727 0.715
wOBA 0.336 0.312 0.309
ERA 3.24 4.53 4.16
FIP 3.47 4.39 3.99
WHIP 1.13 1.42 1.33
K/9 8.89 6.94 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.690 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 4.99 4.20
BP FIP 3.20 4.08 3.98
BP WHIP 1.22 1.48
BP K/9 9.63 7.82
BP Quality* 39.8 56.2 45.9
BP IP 98.0 127.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Will Smith, Alex Call, Miguel Rojas
Will Smith C OPS: 0.901 (362 AB)
Alex Call LF OPS: 0.746 (270 AB)
Miguel Rojas SS OPS: 0.715 (290 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.5% of full strength
STL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, Yohel Pozo
Nolan Gorman 3B OPS: 0.666 (351 AB)
Thomas Saggese LF OPS: 0.641 (275 AB)
Yohel Pozo C OPS: 0.637 (160 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9553 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 0.9553)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.2 - STL 3.8
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.2 - STL 3.8
Win Probability: LAD 63.8% - STL 36.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -176 / STL +176
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
LAD -1.5: 48.0%
LAD +1.5: 78.1%
STL -1.5: 21.9%
STL +1.5: 52.0%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.790 / STL 1.157
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.868 / STL 1.225
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.9 - STL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.9 - STL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAD 64.5% - STL 35.5% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -182 / STL +182
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Matthew Boyd
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 3.61
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.99 K/9: 8.27
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 4.19 FIP: 3.3
IP: 19.0 IP: 24.0
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI CHC Lg Avg
Record 16-17 22-12
R/Game 4.57 5.43 4.49
RA/Game 5.45 4.20 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.782 0.715
wOBA 0.307 0.338 0.309
ERA 5.04 3.89 4.16
FIP 4.50 3.93 3.99
WHIP 1.41 1.17 1.33
K/9 7.56 8.25 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.420 0.615 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.83 3.81 4.20
BP FIP 4.21 4.06 3.98
BP WHIP 1.23 1.23
BP K/9 7.91 8.24
BP Quality* 51.0 43.9 45.9
BP IP 123.0 120.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: James McCann, Adrian Del Castillo
James McCann C OPS: 0.755 (123 AB)
Adrian Del Castillo C OPS: 0.682 (120 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.6% of full strength
CHC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Miguel Amaya
Miguel Amaya C OPS: 0.814 (96 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 18 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), strong wind in (18 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9306 (Temp: 0.9846 | Wind: 0.9451)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 3.9 - CHC 5.8
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.9 - CHC 5.8
Win Probability: ARI 32.1% - CHC 67.9%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +212 / CHC -212
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
ARI -1.5: 19.3%
ARI +1.5: 47.1%
CHC -1.5: 52.9%
CHC +1.5: 80.7%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.135 / CHC 0.908
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.111 / CHC 0.956
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - CHC 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - CHC 3.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 33.4% - CHC 66.6% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +199 / CHC -199
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Spencer Strider Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 4.55 ERA: 4.99
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 9.6 K/9: 7.11
BB/9: 3.94 BB/9: 2.21
FIP: 4.41 FIP: 4.06
IP: 3.3 IP: 25.0
xERA: 4.93 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: COL (Kyle Freeland)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL COL Lg Avg
Record 25-10 14-21
R/Game 5.86 4.29 4.49
RA/Game 3.54 4.91 4.48
OPS 0.806 0.725 0.715
wOBA 0.343 0.314 0.309
ERA 3.19 4.61 4.16
FIP 3.73 4.48 3.99
WHIP 1.17 1.41 1.33
K/9 8.68 7.94 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.715 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 4.28 4.20
BP FIP 3.12 4.08 3.98
BP WHIP 1.10 1.36
BP K/9 8.93 9.08
BP Quality* 36.2 49.3 45.9
BP IP 120.0 157.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chase Dollander (97 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tanner Gordon (41 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dominic Smith, Mike Yastrzemski, Michael Harris II, Kyle Farmer
Dominic Smith 1B OPS: 0.750 (204 AB)
Mike Yastrzemski LF OPS: 0.736 (477 AB)
Michael Harris II CF OPS: 0.677 (611 AB)
Kyle Farmer 3B OPS: 0.645 (277 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.8% of full strength
COL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jordan Beck, Tyler Freeman, Brenton Doyle
Jordan Beck LF OPS: 0.733 (539 AB)
Tyler Freeman RF OPS: 0.715 (377 AB)
Brenton Doyle CF OPS: 0.650 (502 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9950 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 0.9913)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 6.9 - COL 3.9
Simulated Avg: ATL 6.8 - COL 3.9
Win Probability: ATL 73.9% - COL 26.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -284 / COL +284
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
ATL -1.5: 60.9%
ATL +1.5: 84.8%
COL -1.5: 15.2%
COL +1.5: 39.1%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.832 / COL 1.145
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.789 / COL 1.074
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 4.0 - COL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 4.0 - COL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATL 73.3% - COL 26.7% (Tie: 12.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -275 / COL +275
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Parker Messick Home: Aaron Civale
ERA: 2.66 ERA: 4.47
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 8.81 K/9: 7.53
BB/9: 1.52 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 2.95 FIP: 4.28
IP: 41.3 IP: 36.7
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE ATH Lg Avg
Record 18-17 18-16
R/Game 4.17 4.39 4.49
RA/Game 4.26 4.69 4.48
OPS 0.706 0.733 0.715
wOBA 0.306 0.313 0.309
ERA 3.98 4.54 4.16
FIP 4.02 4.64 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.46 1.33
K/9 9.28 7.96 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.491 0.470 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.49 4.20
BP FIP 3.84 4.36 3.98
BP WHIP 1.28 1.49
BP K/9 9.52 8.31
BP Quality* 48.6 55.8 45.9
BP IP 114.3 130.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Scott Barlow (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brady Basso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Morales (64 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rhys Hoskins, Bo Naylor, Angel Martínez, David Fry
Rhys Hoskins 1B OPS: 0.748 (279 AB)
Bo Naylor C OPS: 0.661 (359 AB)
Angel Martínez LF OPS: 0.628 (446 AB)
David Fry RF OPS: 0.592 (146 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.2% of full strength
ATH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Carlos Cortes, Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler
Carlos Cortes RF OPS: 0.866 (94 AB)
Shea Langeliers C OPS: 0.861 (481 AB)
Lawrence Butler RF OPS: 0.710 (569 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9660 (Temp: 0.9887 | Wind: 0.9770)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.3 - ATH 3.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.3 - ATH 3.4
Win Probability: CLE 58.9% - ATH 41.1%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -143 / ATH +143
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
CLE -1.5: 41.3%
CLE +1.5: 75.6%
ATH -1.5: 24.4%
ATH +1.5: 58.7%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.702 / ATH 1.025
Bullpen Adj: CLE 1.059 / ATH 1.216
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.2 - ATH 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.3 - ATH 1.6
F5 Win Prob: CLE 63.6% - ATH 36.4% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -175 / ATH +175
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Clay Holmes Home: Jack Kochanowicz
ERA: 3.16 ERA: 6.06
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.64
K/9: 6.92 K/9: 5.98
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 4.67
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 5.42
IP: 42.7 IP: 41.3
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 5.88
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.368
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Clay Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM LAA Lg Avg
Record 12-22 13-22
R/Game 3.51 4.51 4.49
RA/Game 4.38 4.94 4.48
OPS 0.636 0.712 0.715
wOBA 0.276 0.310 0.309
ERA 3.97 4.54 4.16
FIP 3.45 4.07 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.42 1.33
K/9 9.45 8.96 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.399 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.77 5.53 4.20
BP FIP 3.51 4.66 3.98
BP WHIP 1.28 1.54
BP K/9 9.08 8.79
BP Quality* 48.8 55.0 45.9
BP IP 131.7 127.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (36 pitches yesterday)
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Francisco Alvarez, Andy Ibáñez, Austin Slater
Francisco Alvarez C OPS: 0.786 (246 AB)
Andy Ibáñez 2B OPS: 0.653 (176 AB)
Austin Slater LF OPS: 0.642 (148 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.7% of full strength
LAA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Yoán Moncada, Adam Frazier, Travis d'Arnaud
Yoán Moncada 3B OPS: 0.784 (248 AB)
Adam Frazier 2B OPS: 0.684 (419 AB)
Travis d'Arnaud C OPS: 0.598 (213 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9811 (Temp: 0.9971 | Wind: 0.9840)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.2 - LAA 4.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.3 - LAA 4.3
Win Probability: NYM 49.9% - LAA 50.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +100 / LAA -100
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
NYM -1.5: 33.7%
NYM +1.5: 66.4%
LAA -1.5: 33.6%
LAA +1.5: 66.3%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.918 / LAA 1.380
Bullpen Adj: NYM 1.064 / LAA 1.198
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.5 - LAA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.5 - LAA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYM 55.4% - LAA 44.6% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -124 / LAA +124
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kris Bubic Home: Luis Castillo
ERA: 2.7 ERA: 4.09
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.04 K/9: 8.08
BB/9: 3.26 BB/9: 2.51
FIP: 2.9 FIP: 3.77
IP: 40.7 IP: 34.3
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.278 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: KC (Kris Bubic)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC SEA Lg Avg
Record 15-19 16-19
R/Game 4.12 4.09 4.49
RA/Game 4.60 4.03 4.48
OPS 0.706 0.693 0.715
wOBA 0.306 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.37 3.72 4.16
FIP 4.31 3.42 3.99
WHIP 1.39 1.26 1.33
K/9 8.81 8.33 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.450 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.08 3.21 4.20
BP FIP 4.76 3.05 3.98
BP WHIP 1.50 1.34
BP K/9 8.75 8.89
BP Quality* 56.7 38.0 45.9
BP IP 110.7 109.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Starling Marte, Nick Loftin
Starling Marte RF OPS: 0.745 (293 AB)
Nick Loftin 3B OPS: 0.635 (168 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
SEA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Cal Raleigh, Dominic Canzone
Cal Raleigh C OPS: 0.948 (596 AB)
Dominic Canzone RF OPS: 0.839 (243 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0356 (Temp: 1.0076 | Wind: 1.0277)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.4 - SEA 3.4
Simulated Avg: KC 3.4 - SEA 3.4
Win Probability: KC 49.8% - SEA 50.2%
Fair Moneyline: KC +101 / SEA -101
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
KC -1.5: 31.3%
KC +1.5: 69.1%
SEA -1.5: 30.9%
SEA +1.5: 68.7%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.707 / SEA 0.948
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.235 / SEA 0.828
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.0 - SEA 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.0 - SEA 1.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 62.8% - SEA 37.2% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -169 / SEA +169
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Anthony Kay Home: Griffin Canning
ERA: 5.7 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.67 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 6.0 K/9: 8.37
BB/9: 4.5 BB/9: 4.17
FIP: 5.87 FIP: 4.02
IP: 30.0 IP: 5.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.7
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: SD (Griffin Canning)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS SD Lg Avg
Record 16-18 20-13
R/Game 4.23 4.39 4.49
RA/Game 4.67 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.699 0.687 0.715
wOBA 0.301 0.298 0.309
ERA 4.25 4.26 4.16
FIP 4.23 3.61 3.99
WHIP 1.39 1.30 1.33
K/9 8.03 8.83 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.78 3.95 4.20
BP FIP 4.54 3.20 3.98
BP WHIP 1.53 1.27
BP K/9 8.16 8.88
BP Quality* 53.6 40.7 45.9
BP IP 153.7 128.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (30 pitches yesterday)
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hays, Miguel Vargas, Edgar Quero, Derek Hill
Austin Hays LF OPS: 0.768 (380 AB)
Miguel Vargas 3B OPS: 0.717 (504 AB)
Edgar Quero C OPS: 0.689 (365 AB)
Derek Hill RF OPS: 0.609 (134 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.7% of full strength
SD (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bryce Johnson, Fernando Tatis Jr., Gavin Sheets
Bryce Johnson RF OPS: 0.817 (76 AB)
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF OPS: 0.814 (594 AB)
Gavin Sheets 1B OPS: 0.746 (492 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0045 (Temp: 0.9953 | Wind: 1.0092)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 3.6 - SD 5.2
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.6 - SD 5.2
Win Probability: CWS 33.9% - SD 66.1%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +195 / SD -195
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
CWS -1.5: 19.9%
CWS +1.5: 50.4%
SD -1.5: 49.6%
SD +1.5: 80.1%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 1.395 / SD 0.998
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.168 / SD 0.887
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.1 - SD 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.1 - SD 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CWS 35.2% - SD 64.8% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +184 / SD -184
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jack Leiter Home: Tyler Holton
ERA: 4.18 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 9.06 K/9: 7.3
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 2.04
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 4.62
IP: 38.0 IP: 13.7
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 3.79
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jack Leiter)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX DET Lg Avg
Record 16-17 17-17
R/Game 3.72 4.31 4.49
RA/Game 3.56 3.97 4.48
OPS 0.687 0.738 0.715
wOBA 0.298 0.321 0.309
ERA 3.58 3.84 4.16
FIP 3.87 3.63 3.99
WHIP 1.22 1.31 1.33
K/9 8.94 8.54 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.520 0.538 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.65 4.17 4.20
BP FIP 3.73 4.13 3.98
BP WHIP 1.14 1.45
BP K/9 7.60 8.73
BP Quality* 41.0 48.7 45.9
BP IP 120.0 112.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cal Quantrill (56 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (35 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Danny Jansen, Sam Haggerty
Danny Jansen C OPS: 0.720 (288 AB)
Sam Haggerty LF OPS: 0.698 (162 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.7% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones, Dillon Dingler, Gleyber Torres, Zack Short
Jahmai Jones RF OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Dillon Dingler C OPS: 0.752 (435 AB)
Gleyber Torres 2B OPS: 0.745 (532 AB)
Zack Short 3B OPS: 0.671 (50 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 30 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), strong wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9402 (Temp: 0.9833 | Wind: 0.9562)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.2 - DET 3.6
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.2 - DET 3.5
Win Probability: TEX 45.6% - DET 54.4%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +120 / DET -120
Avg Total Runs: 6.7
Over 6.5: 48.6%
Under 6.5: 51.4%
TEX +1.5: 65.4%
DET -1.5: 34.6%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 1.017 / DET 0.911
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.894 / DET 1.061
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 1.7 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.7 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TEX 42.3% - DET 57.7% (Tie: 19.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +136 / DET -136
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +1200 +120 +37.9%
DET ML -4500 -120 -43.4%
TEX +1.5 -260 -189 -6.9%
DET -1.5 +188 +189 -0.1%
O 6.5 -110 N/A -3.8%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -1.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Texas Rangers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +1200 | Edge: 37.9%