2026-05-04
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-04
Games: 12 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM COL Lg Avg
Record 12-22 14-21
R/Game 3.51 4.29 4.50
RA/Game 4.38 4.91 4.49
OPS 0.636 0.725 0.715
wOBA 0.276 0.314 0.309
ERA 3.97 4.61 4.17
FIP 3.45 4.48 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.41 1.33
K/9 9.45 7.94 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.399 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.70 4.44 4.18
BP FIP 3.44 4.08 3.96
BP WHIP 1.28 1.38
BP K/9 9.26 8.93
BP Quality* 45.2 48.6 45.8
BP IP 134.0 162.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (42 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9640 (Temp: 0.9922 | Wind: 0.9716)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.4 - COL 4.8
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.4 - COL 4.8
Win Probability: NYM 46.2% - COL 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +117 / COL -117
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 10.5: 33.9%
Under 10.5: 66.1%
NYM -1.5: 31.2%
COL +1.5: 68.8%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 1.000 / COL 1.235
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.988 / COL 1.061
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.6 - COL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.6 - COL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: NYM 49.6% - COL 50.4% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +102 / COL -102
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -144 +117 -12.8%
COL ML +122 -117 +8.8%
NYM -1.5 +108 +221 -16.9%
COL +1.5 -130 -221 +12.3%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -18.4%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +13.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.7%
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -130 | Edge: 12.3%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Payton Tolle Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 2.31
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 0.9
K/9: 12.66 K/9: 10.75
BB/9: 4.22 BB/9: 1.47
FIP: 2.91 FIP: 2.28
IP: 10.7 IP: 43.3
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 2.71
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.258
Pitcher Edge: DET (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS DET Lg Avg
Record 13-21 18-17
R/Game 3.85 4.51 4.50
RA/Game 4.38 4.00 4.49
OPS 0.670 0.739 0.715
wOBA 0.295 0.321 0.309
ERA 4.22 3.81 4.17
FIP 4.34 3.62 3.99
WHIP 1.34 1.31 1.33
K/9 8.07 8.51 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.442 0.555 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.52 3.95 4.18
BP FIP 4.16 4.01 3.96
BP WHIP 1.27 1.42
BP K/9 8.30 8.58
BP Quality* 51.1 50.2 45.8
BP IP 130.3 120.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Tyler Samaniego (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Zack Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brant Hurter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Burch Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9659 (Temp: 1.0039 | Wind: 0.9622)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 2.9 - DET 4.4
Simulated Avg: BOS 2.9 - DET 4.4
Win Probability: BOS 32.6% - DET 67.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +206 / DET -206
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.0: 43.3%
Under 7.0: 45.0%
BOS +1.5: 51.2%
DET -1.5: 48.8%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.932 / DET 0.585
Bullpen Adj: BOS 1.116 / DET 1.096
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 1.2 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.2 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BOS 27.5% - DET 72.5% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +264 / DET -264
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +194 +206 -1.4%
DET ML -235 -206 -2.8%
BOS +1.5 -115 -105 -2.3%
DET -1.5 -104 +105 -2.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -9.0%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -7.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Nick Martinez
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
Record 16-18 21-12
R/Game 4.23 4.45 4.50
RA/Game 4.61 4.24 4.49
OPS 0.705 0.703 0.715
wOBA 0.303 0.303 0.309
ERA 4.24 3.76 4.17
FIP 3.69 4.07 3.99
WHIP 1.30 1.19 1.33
K/9 9.53 7.90 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.19 4.48 4.18
BP FIP 3.27 4.61 3.96
BP WHIP 1.30 1.33
BP K/9 10.38 8.06
BP Quality* 44.5 52.5 45.8
BP IP 143.7 131.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.2 - TB 4.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.1 - TB 4.3
Win Probability: TOR 48.0% - TB 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +108 / TB -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 45.2%
Under 8.0: 43.9%
TOR +1.5: 64.9%
TB -1.5: 35.1%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 1.000 / TB 0.970
Bullpen Adj: TOR 0.973 / TB 1.147
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.2 - TB 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.2 - TB 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 46.1% - TB 53.9% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +117 / TB -117
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +102 +108 -1.5%
TB ML -120 -108 -2.5%
TOR +1.5 -210 -185 -2.8%
TB -1.5 +172 +185 -1.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Aaron Nola Home: Janson Junk
ERA: 6.01 ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 9.39 K/9: 6.2
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 1.25
FIP: 4.44 FIP: 3.06
IP: 31.3 IP: 33.0
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Janson Junk)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
Record 14-20 16-18
R/Game 3.88 4.30 4.50
RA/Game 5.09 4.34 4.49
OPS 0.674 0.714 0.715
wOBA 0.294 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.72 3.97 4.17
FIP 3.46 3.72 3.99
WHIP 1.46 1.25 1.33
K/9 9.64 8.57 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.379 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 3.53 4.18
BP FIP 3.32 3.48 3.96
BP WHIP 1.40 1.25
BP K/9 9.11 9.87
BP Quality* 44.7 42.0 45.8
BP IP 130.3 118.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Phillips (47 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind out (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0538 (Temp: 1.0078 | Wind: 1.0457)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.4 - MIA 4.6
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.4 - MIA 4.6
Win Probability: PHI 37.1% - MIA 62.9%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +170 / MIA -170
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 40.3%
Under 8.5: 59.7%
PHI -1.5: 22.0%
MIA +1.5: 78.0%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 1.133 / MIA 0.905
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.976 / MIA 0.917
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 1.9 - MIA 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.9 - MIA 2.7
F5 Win Prob: PHI 36.6% - MIA 63.4% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +173 / MIA -173
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -116 +170 -16.6%
MIA ML -102 -170 +12.4%
PHI -1.5 +138 +355 -20.0%
MIA +1.5 -170 -355 +15.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.85%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00228
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Miami Marlins (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -102 | Edge: 12.4%
[HMC] Miami Marlins +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -170 | Edge: 15.0%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Baz Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 4.81 ERA: 2.67
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 9.2 K/9: 10.4
BB/9: 3.37 BB/9: 3.32
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 3.1
IP: 34.0 IP: 41.7
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
Record 15-19 23-11
R/Game 4.52 5.29 4.50
RA/Game 5.40 3.41 4.49
OPS 0.705 0.785 0.715
wOBA 0.307 0.335 0.309
ERA 4.75 3.04 4.17
FIP 4.32 3.30 3.99
WHIP 1.48 1.12 1.33
K/9 8.53 8.86 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.420 0.691 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 3.54 4.18
BP FIP 4.06 3.57 3.96
BP WHIP 1.36 1.30
BP K/9 9.30 8.56
BP Quality* 50.2 45.7 45.8
BP IP 129.7 107.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dietrich Enns (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9825 (Temp: 0.9900 | Wind: 0.9924)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 3.8 - NYY 5.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.8 - NYY 5.5
Win Probability: BAL 34.1% - NYY 66.0%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +194 / NYY -194
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.5%
Under 8.5: 45.5%
BAL +1.5: 49.6%
NYY -1.5: 50.4%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.003 / NYY 0.802
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.097 / NYY 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.0 - NYY 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.9 - NYY 2.9
F5 Win Prob: BAL 34.0% - NYY 66.0% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +194 / NYY -194
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +198 +194 +0.5%
NYY ML -240 -194 -4.6%
BAL +1.5 -105 +101 -1.6%
NYY -1.5 -113 -101 -2.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chase Petty Home: Edward Cabrera
ERA: 19.5 ERA: 3.45
WHIP: 3.67 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 10.5 K/9: 9.4
BB/9: 12.0 BB/9: 3.13
FIP: 11.27 FIP: 3.57
IP: 6.0 IP: 35.3
xERA: 11.12 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.471 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Edward Cabrera)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
Record 20-14 22-12
R/Game 4.16 5.43 4.50
RA/Game 4.78 4.20 4.49
OPS 0.688 0.782 0.715
wOBA 0.299 0.338 0.309
ERA 4.48 3.89 4.17
FIP 4.45 3.93 3.99
WHIP 1.49 1.17 1.33
K/9 7.95 8.25 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.615 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 3.87 4.18
BP FIP 4.47 4.14 3.96
BP WHIP 1.54 1.24
BP K/9 9.01 8.26
BP Quality* 52.7 45.9 45.8
BP IP 132.7 123.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Trevino (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 28%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9849 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 0.9810)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.9 - CHC 8.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.9 - CHC 8.0
Win Probability: CIN 20.1% - CHC 80.0%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +399 / CHC -399
Avg Total Runs: 12.0
Over 11.5: 49.4%
Under 11.5: 50.6%
CIN +1.5: 31.0%
CHC -1.5: 69.0%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 1.600 / CHC 0.888
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.150 / CHC 1.003
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - CHC 5.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - CHC 5.0
F5 Win Prob: CIN 18.0% - CHC 82.0% (Tie: 9.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +454 / CHC -454
F5 Avg Total: 7.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +172 +399 -16.7%
CHC ML -205 -399 +12.7%
CIN +1.5 -108 +222 -20.9%
CHC -1.5 -111 -222 +16.4%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -3.0%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -1.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Chicago Cubs (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -205 | Edge: 12.7%
[HMC] Chicago Cubs -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -111 | Edge: 16.4%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tanner Bibee Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 3.73
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.03 K/9: 6.81
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 3.6
IP: 35.3 IP: 37.3
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: KC (Michael Wacha)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
Record 18-17 15-19
R/Game 4.17 4.12 4.50
RA/Game 4.26 4.60 4.49
OPS 0.706 0.706 0.715
wOBA 0.306 0.306 0.309
ERA 3.98 4.37 4.17
FIP 4.02 4.31 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.39 1.33
K/9 9.28 8.81 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.491 0.450 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.30 4.99 4.18
BP FIP 3.85 4.71 3.96
BP WHIP 1.31 1.48
BP K/9 9.51 8.84
BP Quality* 53.9 57.5 45.8
BP IP 117.3 112.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Colin Holderman (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Pallette (36 pitches yesterday)
KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9976 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 0.9853)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.3 - KC 4.3
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.2 - KC 4.3
Win Probability: CLE 48.8% - KC 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +105 / KC -105
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 9.0: 37.0%
Under 9.0: 53.1%
CLE +1.5: 65.5%
KC -1.5: 34.5%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.959 / KC 0.918
Bullpen Adj: CLE 1.177 / KC 1.255
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.1 - KC 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.1 - KC 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CLE 47.9% - KC 52.1% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +109 / KC -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +106 +105 +0.2%
KC ML -124 -105 -4.1%
CLE +1.5 -194 -190 -0.5%
KC -1.5 +160 +190 -4.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -15.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +0.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chad Patrick Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 3.42 ERA: 3.49
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 9.05 K/9: 7.93
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 2.95
FIP: 3.49 FIP: 3.39
IP: 28.0 IP: 29.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
Record 18-15 20-14
R/Game 5.20 4.86 4.50
RA/Game 3.85 4.88 4.49
OPS 0.692 0.727 0.715
wOBA 0.299 0.312 0.309
ERA 3.56 4.53 4.17
FIP 3.46 4.39 3.99
WHIP 1.25 1.42 1.33
K/9 9.45 6.94 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.634 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.89 4.18
BP FIP 3.47 4.07 3.96
BP WHIP 1.39 1.48
BP K/9 8.99 7.77
BP Quality* 41.9 50.0 45.8
BP IP 135.0 130.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9681 (Temp: 1.0058 | Wind: 0.9624)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.0 - STL 4.1
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.0 - STL 4.2
Win Probability: MIL 58.2% - STL 41.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -139 / STL +139
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 52.4%
Under 8.5: 47.6%
MIL -1.5: 42.6%
STL +1.5: 57.4%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.840 / STL 0.987
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.916 / STL 1.091
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.7 - STL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.7 - STL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 58.4% - STL 41.6% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -141 / STL +141
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -116 -139 +4.5%
STL ML -102 +139 -8.7%
MIL -1.5 +140 +135 +0.9%
STL +1.5 -170 -135 -5.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Steven Okert
ERA: 2.56 ERA: 3.01
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 0.89
K/9: 9.95 K/9: 10.55
BB/9: 2.9 BB/9: 2.39
FIP: 2.96 FIP: 2.64
IP: 37.7 IP: 15.0
xERA: 2.74 xERA: 2.61
xwOBA: 0.259 xwOBA: 0.253
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Steven Okert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD HOU Lg Avg
Record 21-13 14-21
R/Game 5.15 5.09 4.50
RA/Game 3.32 5.74 4.49
OPS 0.789 0.788 0.715
wOBA 0.336 0.335 0.309
ERA 3.24 5.75 4.17
FIP 3.47 4.92 3.99
WHIP 1.13 1.62 1.33
K/9 8.89 9.28 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.690 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 6.20 4.18
BP FIP 3.19 5.61 3.96
BP WHIP 1.21 1.66
BP K/9 9.53 8.82
BP Quality* 39.7 68.5 45.8
BP IP 101.0 148.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (59 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9708 (Temp: 0.9998 | Wind: 0.9710)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 6.0 - HOU 3.8
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.1 - HOU 3.8
Win Probability: LAD 70.2% - HOU 29.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -236 / HOU +236
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 58.4%
Under 8.5: 41.6%
LAD -1.5: 55.9%
HOU +1.5: 44.1%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.667 / HOU 1.116
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.866 / HOU 1.400
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.1 - HOU 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.0 - HOU 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 69.0% - HOU 31.0% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -223 / HOU +223
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -205 -236 +3.0%
HOU ML +172 +236 -7.0%
LAD -1.5 -125 -127 +0.4%
HOU +1.5 +104 +127 -4.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +6.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Davis Martin Home: José Soriano
ERA: 3.73 ERA: 3.58
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 6.81 K/9: 8.54
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 4.0
FIP: 4.16 FIP: 3.46
IP: 37.0 IP: 42.7
xERA: 5.13 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: LAA (José Soriano)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS LAA Lg Avg
Record 16-18 13-22
R/Game 4.23 4.51 4.50
RA/Game 4.67 4.94 4.49
OPS 0.699 0.712 0.715
wOBA 0.301 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.25 4.54 4.17
FIP 4.23 4.07 3.99
WHIP 1.39 1.42 1.33
K/9 8.03 8.96 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.75 5.62 4.18
BP FIP 4.49 4.70 3.96
BP WHIP 1.53 1.53
BP K/9 8.18 8.81
BP Quality* 56.1 56.9 45.8
BP IP 156.7 129.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Bryan Hudson (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nick Sandlin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9733 (Temp: 0.9884 | Wind: 0.9847)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.2 - LAA 5.1
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.2 - LAA 5.1
Win Probability: CWS 41.3% - LAA 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +142 / LAA -142
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.5: 64.1%
Under 7.5: 35.9%
CWS +1.5: 57.2%
LAA -1.5: 42.8%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 1.053 / LAA 0.886
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.226 / LAA 1.242
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.0 - LAA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.0 - LAA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CWS 39.7% - LAA 60.3% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +152 / LAA -152
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +136 +142 -1.1%
LAA ML -162 -142 -3.1%
CWS +1.5 -156 -133 -3.8%
LAA -1.5 +130 +133 -0.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +11.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -16.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.7%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: JR Ritchie Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 2.92 ERA: 3.56
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 8.03 K/9: 11.36
BB/9: 4.38 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 5.95 FIP: 3.13
IP: 12.3 IP: 38.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SEA Lg Avg
Record 25-10 16-19
R/Game 5.86 4.09 4.50
RA/Game 3.54 4.03 4.49
OPS 0.806 0.693 0.715
wOBA 0.343 0.304 0.309
ERA 3.19 3.72 4.17
FIP 3.73 3.42 3.99
WHIP 1.17 1.26 1.33
K/9 8.68 8.33 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.715 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.22 3.20 4.18
BP FIP 3.24 3.10 3.96
BP WHIP 1.11 1.34
BP K/9 9.02 8.81
BP Quality* 41.5 41.3 45.8
BP IP 125.7 112.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9946 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 0.9926)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.4 - SEA 3.1
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.4 - SEA 3.1
Win Probability: ATL 64.0% - SEA 36.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -177 / SEA +177
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 46.2%
Under 7.5: 53.8%
ATL +1.5: 79.8%
SEA -1.5: 20.2%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.739 / SEA 0.773
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.906 / SEA 0.902
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.3 - SEA 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.3 - SEA 1.6
F5 Win Prob: ATL 64.3% - SEA 35.7% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -180 / SEA +180
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +132 -177 +20.9%
SEA ML -156 +177 -24.9%
ATL +1.5 -176 -395 +16.0%
SEA -1.5 +146 +395 -20.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +132 | Edge: 20.9%
[HMC] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -176 | Edge: 16.0%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | May 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Randy Vásquez Home: Trevor McDonald
ERA: 3.69 ERA: 1.8
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 5.91 K/9: 8.4
BB/9: 3.4 BB/9: 1.2
FIP: 4.41 FIP: 2.5
IP: 33.7 IP: 15.0
xERA: 5.37 xERA: 3.21
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: SF (Trevor McDonald)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SF Lg Avg
Record 20-13 13-21
R/Game 4.39 3.15 4.50
RA/Game 4.39 4.12 4.49
OPS 0.687 0.644 0.715
wOBA 0.298 0.279 0.309
ERA 4.26 3.87 4.17
FIP 3.61 3.94 3.99
WHIP 1.30 1.32 1.33
K/9 8.83 8.28 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.379 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.96 3.02 4.18
BP FIP 3.18 3.79 3.96
BP WHIP 1.26 1.30
BP K/9 9.14 8.52
BP Quality* 41.9 42.3 45.8
BP IP 132.3 110.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (31 pitches yesterday)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9678 (Temp: 0.9812 | Wind: 0.9864)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.2 - SF 3.0
Simulated Avg: SD 3.2 - SF 3.0
Win Probability: SD 52.1% - SF 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: SD -109 / SF +109
Avg Total Runs: 6.2
Over 8.0: 21.5%
Under 8.0: 69.2%
SD -1.5: 31.6%
SF +1.5: 68.4%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.095 / SF 0.729
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.915 / SF 0.923
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.6 - SF 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.6 - SF 1.8
F5 Win Prob: SD 46.5% - SF 53.5% (Tie: 21.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +115 / SF -115
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -142 -109 -6.6%
SF ML +120 +109 +2.4%
SD -1.5 +116 +216 -14.7%
SF +1.5 -140 -216 +10.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -30.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +16.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.8%
[HMC] San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -140 | Edge: 10.0%