2026-05-05
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-05
Games: 15 | Plays: 6
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jovani Morán Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 2.33 ERA: 3.6
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 7.91 K/9: 8.44
BB/9: 5.12 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 4.4 FIP: 3.22
IP: 19.3 IP: 40.3
xERA: 3.99 xERA: 3.79
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS DET Lg Avg
Record 14-21 18-18
R/Game 3.86 4.50 4.48
RA/Game 4.37 4.03 4.48
OPS 0.671 0.728 0.714
wOBA 0.296 0.317 0.309
ERA 4.14 3.84 4.16
FIP 4.27 3.61 3.98
WHIP 1.31 1.32 1.33
K/9 8.14 8.59 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.551 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.54 4.06 4.17
BP FIP 4.14 3.97 3.94
BP WHIP 1.28 1.43
BP K/9 8.37 8.74
BP Quality* 49.7 51.9 45.6
BP IP 132.3 128.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Garrett Whitlock (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Tyler Samaniego (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Ricky Vanasco (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Ty Madden (81 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Enmanuel De Jesus (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 36%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9721 (Temp: 0.9845 | Wind: 0.9873)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.5 - DET 4.1
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.5 - DET 4.1
Win Probability: BOS 42.8% - DET 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +134 / DET -134
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.0: 36.7%
Under 8.0: 52.8%
BOS +1.5: 61.3%
DET -1.5: 38.7%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.821 / DET 0.845
Bullpen Adj: BOS 1.090 / DET 1.138
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.7 - DET 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.7 - DET 2.0
F5 Win Prob: BOS 44.5% - DET 55.5% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +125 / DET -125
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +138 +134 +0.8%
DET ML -164 -134 -4.9%
BOS +1.5 -154 -158 +0.6%
DET -1.5 +128 +158 -5.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -15.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 2.74
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 8.82 K/9: 7.92
BB/9: 2.22 BB/9: 2.09
FIP: 3.33 FIP: 3.69
IP: 40.7 IP: 30.7
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
Record 16-19 22-12
R/Game 4.11 4.47 4.48
RA/Game 4.63 4.15 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.704 0.714
wOBA 0.302 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.27 3.68 4.16
FIP 3.68 4.01 3.98
WHIP 1.30 1.20 1.33
K/9 9.45 7.87 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 4.37 4.17
BP FIP 3.21 4.56 3.94
BP WHIP 1.31 1.34
BP K/9 10.32 8.03
BP Quality* 47.4 56.5 45.6
BP IP 147.3 135.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Ian Seymour (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.8 - TB 4.0
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.8 - TB 4.0
Win Probability: TOR 47.0% - TB 53.0%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +113 / TB -113
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.0: 49.6%
Under 7.0: 39.1%
TOR +1.5: 64.9%
TB -1.5: 35.1%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.845 / TB 0.812
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.039 / TB 1.239
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 1.8 - TB 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.8 - TB 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TOR 44.7% - TB 55.3% (Tie: 19.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +124 / TB -124
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +110 +113 -0.6%
TB ML -130 -113 -3.5%
TOR +1.5 -196 -185 -1.3%
TB -1.5 +162 +185 -3.1%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -2.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Luis Severino Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 4.52 ERA: 2.58
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 7.37 K/9: 9.79
BB/9: 3.3 BB/9: 2.15
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 2.45
IP: 38.3 IP: 40.3
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 3.02
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH PHI Lg Avg
Record 18-16 15-20
R/Game 4.39 3.77 4.48
RA/Game 4.69 4.97 4.48
OPS 0.733 0.667 0.714
wOBA 0.313 0.291 0.309
ERA 4.54 4.61 4.16
FIP 4.64 3.40 3.98
WHIP 1.46 1.45 1.33
K/9 7.96 9.57 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.376 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 4.18 4.17
BP FIP 4.32 3.27 3.94
BP WHIP 1.46 1.39
BP K/9 8.25 9.04
BP Quality* 49.2 44.1 45.6
BP IP 133.3 133.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Banks (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 30 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), strong wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9652 (Temp: 1.0115 | Wind: 0.9542)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 3.3 - PHI 4.0
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.3 - PHI 4.0
Win Probability: ATH 42.2% - PHI 57.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +137 / PHI -137
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
ATH -1.5: 25.1%
ATH +1.5: 60.9%
PHI -1.5: 39.1%
PHI +1.5: 74.9%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.031 / PHI 0.645
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.078 / PHI 0.967
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 1.6 - PHI 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.6 - PHI 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATH 37.8% - PHI 62.3% (Tie: 19.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +165 / PHI -165
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chris Bassitt Home: Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 4.22 ERA: 4.9
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.2 K/9: 7.03
BB/9: 3.05 BB/9: 2.92
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 4.04
IP: 28.0 IP: 47.3
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.64
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL MIA Lg Avg
Record 15-20 16-19
R/Game 4.43 4.17 4.48
RA/Game 5.60 4.23 4.48
OPS 0.704 0.706 0.714
wOBA 0.307 0.308 0.309
ERA 4.96 3.86 4.16
FIP 4.39 3.68 3.98
WHIP 1.50 1.24 1.33
K/9 8.43 8.57 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.394 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.91 3.40 4.17
BP FIP 4.12 3.41 3.94
BP WHIP 1.39 1.23
BP K/9 9.14 9.76
BP Quality* 56.4 42.6 45.6
BP IP 132.0 121.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Keegan Akin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dietrich Enns (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lou Trivino (31 pitches yesterday)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9999 (Temp: 1.0121 | Wind: 0.9879)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.1 - MIA 4.6
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.1 - MIA 4.6
Win Probability: BAL 44.7% - MIA 55.3%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +124 / MIA -124
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.0%
Under 8.5: 51.9%
BAL +1.5: 61.1%
MIA -1.5: 38.9%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.121 / MIA 1.073
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.237 / MIA 0.934
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.4 - MIA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.4 - MIA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BAL 49.9% - MIA 50.1% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +100 / MIA -100
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +118 +124 -1.2%
MIA ML -138 -124 -2.7%
BAL +1.5 -176 -157 -2.6%
MIA -1.5 +146 +157 -1.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Taj Bradley Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.61 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 8.34 K/9: 8.15
BB/9: 3.48 BB/9: 3.04
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 3.88
IP: 41.0 IP: 30.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN WSH Lg Avg
Record 15-20 16-19
R/Game 4.71 5.14 4.48
RA/Game 4.86 5.63 4.48
OPS 0.707 0.702 0.714
wOBA 0.310 0.302 0.309
ERA 4.46 4.81 4.16
FIP 3.98 4.87 3.98
WHIP 1.37 1.45 1.33
K/9 7.80 7.63 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.31 4.65 4.17
BP FIP 4.09 4.93 3.94
BP WHIP 1.55 1.45
BP K/9 7.42 6.78
BP Quality* 55.0 52.9 45.6
BP IP 123.7 164.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Topa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 28 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), strong wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9664 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9541)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.6 - WSH 5.4
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.6 - WSH 5.4
Win Probability: MIN 42.5% - WSH 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +135 / WSH -135
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 9.5: 50.4%
Under 9.5: 49.6%
MIN -1.5: 28.5%
WSH +1.5: 71.5%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.017 / WSH 0.971
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.206 / WSH 1.160
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.4 - WSH 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.4 - WSH 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIN 43.8% - WSH 56.2% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +128 / WSH -128
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -112 +135 -10.3%
WSH ML -104 -135 +6.5%
MIN -1.5 +130 +251 -15.0%
WSH +1.5 -156 -251 +10.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -2.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -156 | Edge: 10.6%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Elmer Rodríguez
ERA: 2.81 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 2.0
K/9: 9.96 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 1.94 BB/9: 9.0
FIP: 3.44 FIP: 4.6
IP: 31.3 IP: 4.0
xERA: 3.36 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX NYY Lg Avg
Record 16-18 24-11
R/Game 3.75 5.49 4.48
RA/Game 3.76 3.31 4.48
OPS 0.686 0.791 0.714
wOBA 0.298 0.337 0.309
ERA 3.65 2.95 4.16
FIP 3.86 3.25 3.98
WHIP 1.22 1.13 1.33
K/9 8.96 8.84 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.498 0.715 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.77 3.41 4.17
BP FIP 3.69 3.47 3.94
BP WHIP 1.15 1.29
BP K/9 7.66 8.59
BP Quality* 39.8 46.2 45.6
BP IP 121.3 111.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gavin Collyer (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9792 (Temp: 1.0048 | Wind: 0.9745)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.2 - NYY 4.5
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.1 - NYY 4.5
Win Probability: TEX 35.7% - NYY 64.3%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +180 / NYY -180
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 36.4%
Under 8.5: 63.6%
TEX +1.5: 53.8%
NYY -1.5: 46.2%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.782 / NYY 0.784
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.873 / NYY 1.013
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.6 - NYY 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.6 - NYY 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TEX 34.9% - NYY 65.0% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +186 / NYY -186
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +108 +180 -12.4%
NYY ML -126 -180 +8.6%
TEX +1.5 -200 -117 -12.8%
NYY -1.5 +164 +117 +8.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -16.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +11.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[HIGH CONVICTION] New York Yankees -1.5 (Run Line) [+164]
Model: 46.2% | Market: 37.9% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: +117 | Kelly: 3.34%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00230
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.3%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Jameson Taillon
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 7.69 K/9: 7.01
BB/9: 2.64 BB/9: 2.13
FIP: 3.83 FIP: 4.82
IP: 34.7 IP: 34.7
xERA: 3.56 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Andrew Abbott)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
Record 20-15 23-12
R/Game 4.14 5.43 4.48
RA/Game 4.80 4.20 4.48
OPS 0.691 0.783 0.714
wOBA 0.300 0.337 0.309
ERA 4.52 3.89 4.16
FIP 4.53 3.95 3.98
WHIP 1.50 1.19 1.33
K/9 7.86 8.37 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.433 0.615 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 3.85 4.17
BP FIP 4.57 4.11 3.94
BP WHIP 1.56 1.23
BP K/9 9.09 8.34
BP Quality* 53.4 50.2 45.6
BP IP 135.7 126.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Graham Ashcraft (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Phil Maton (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Ben Brown (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 53°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Cool (53°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9743 (Temp: 0.9768 | Wind: 0.9974)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.3 - CHC 5.6
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.3 - CHC 5.6
Win Probability: CIN 38.2% - CHC 61.8%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +161 / CHC -161
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 59.5%
Under 8.0: 30.8%
CIN +1.5: 53.5%
CHC -1.5: 46.5%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.878 / CHC 1.016
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.171 / CHC 1.101
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.4 - CHC 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - CHC 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CIN 44.0% - CHC 56.0% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +127 / CHC -127
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +134 +161 -4.5%
CHC ML -158 -161 +0.5%
CIN +1.5 -156 -115 -7.4%
CHC -1.5 +130 +115 +3.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.73%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00231
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gavin Williams Home: Stephen Kolek
ERA: 2.99 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 9.63 K/9: 6.15
BB/9: 4.36 BB/9: 2.48
FIP: 4.19 FIP: 3.6
IP: 43.3 IP: 112.7
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: KC (Stephen Kolek)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
Record 18-18 16-19
R/Game 4.11 4.17 4.48
RA/Game 4.31 4.54 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.706 0.714
wOBA 0.304 0.306 0.309
ERA 4.02 4.32 4.16
FIP 4.07 4.32 3.98
WHIP 1.27 1.37 1.33
K/9 9.25 8.67 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 4.94 4.17
BP FIP 3.93 4.70 3.94
BP WHIP 1.30 1.47
BP K/9 9.42 8.71
BP Quality* 51.0 54.2 45.6
BP IP 121.3 114.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Peyton Pallette (B2B, 36 pitches)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 53°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Cool (53°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9686 (Temp: 0.9771 | Wind: 0.9913)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.0 - KC 4.1
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.0 - KC 4.1
Win Probability: CLE 48.2% - KC 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +107 / KC -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.2%
Under 7.5: 47.8%
CLE -1.5: 31.4%
KC +1.5: 68.6%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.944 / KC 0.919
Bullpen Adj: CLE 1.118 / KC 1.189
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.0 - KC 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.0 - KC 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CLE 47.7% - KC 52.3% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +109 / KC -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -120 +107 -6.3%
KC ML +102 -107 +2.3%
CLE -1.5 +134 +218 -11.3%
KC +1.5 -162 -218 +6.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 6.75 ERA: 5.04
WHIP: 1.61 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 8.44 K/9: 6.37
BB/9: 5.06 BB/9: 3.53
FIP: 6.32 FIP: 4.54
IP: 26.7 IP: 31.3
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: STL (Andre Pallante)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
Record 18-16 21-14
R/Game 5.14 4.91 4.48
RA/Game 3.91 4.83 4.48
OPS 0.695 0.731 0.714
wOBA 0.301 0.313 0.309
ERA 3.64 4.50 4.16
FIP 3.42 4.40 3.98
WHIP 1.27 1.43 1.33
K/9 9.48 6.92 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.623 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.92 4.17
BP FIP 3.41 4.18 3.94
BP WHIP 1.39 1.50
BP K/9 9.01 7.68
BP Quality* 47.6 55.2 45.6
BP IP 139.7 133.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Jake Woodford (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 49°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 82%
Conditions: Cool (49°F), wind out (8 mph) | Rain likely (82%)
Weather Factor: 1.0115 (Temp: 0.9728 | Wind: 1.0398)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.8 - STL 5.6
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.8 - STL 5.6
Win Probability: MIL 51.2% - STL 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -105 / STL +105
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 7.5: 79.3%
Under 7.5: 20.7%
MIL +1.5: 64.4%
STL -1.5: 35.6%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 1.174 / STL 1.101
Bullpen Adj: MIL 1.043 / STL 1.211
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.1 - STL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.1 - STL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 48.5% - STL 51.4% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +106 / STL -106
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -106 -105 -0.2%
STL ML -110 +105 -3.6%
MIL +1.5 -200 -181 -2.2%
STL -1.5 +164 +181 -2.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +26.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -31.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 26.9%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shohei Ohtani Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 2.55 ERA: 3.52
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 11.63 K/9: 11.15
BB/9: 1.86 BB/9: 4.11
FIP: 1.85 FIP: 1.99
IP: 30.0 IP: 15.3
xERA: 2.53 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.249 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD HOU Lg Avg
Record 22-13 14-22
R/Game 5.23 5.03 4.48
RA/Game 3.29 5.81 4.48
OPS 0.795 0.782 0.714
wOBA 0.338 0.333 0.309
ERA 3.21 5.78 4.16
FIP 3.42 4.93 3.98
WHIP 1.12 1.63 1.33
K/9 9.06 9.33 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.701 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 6.22 4.17
BP FIP 3.06 5.59 3.94
BP WHIP 1.19 1.66
BP K/9 9.87 8.92
BP Quality* 39.9 70.0 45.6
BP IP 104.0 156.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kai-Wei Teng (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Weiss (95 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9751 (Temp: 1.0050 | Wind: 0.9703)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 6.3 - HOU 3.4
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.3 - HOU 3.4
Win Probability: LAD 75.6% - HOU 24.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -309 / HOU +309
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.6%
Under 8.5: 42.4%
LAD -1.5: 62.1%
HOU +1.5: 37.9%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.544 / HOU 1.172
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.875 / HOU 1.400
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.3 - HOU 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.3 - HOU 1.5
F5 Win Prob: LAD 77.9% - HOU 22.1% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -353 / HOU +353
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -225 -309 +6.3%
HOU ML +188 +309 -10.3%
LAD -1.5 -130 -164 +5.5%
HOU +1.5 +108 +164 -10.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Michael Lorenzen
ERA: 2.86 ERA: 4.93
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 10.28 K/9: 7.73
BB/9: 3.44 BB/9: 2.46
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 4.5
IP: 38.3 IP: 34.0
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Freddy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM COL Lg Avg
Record 13-22 14-22
R/Game 3.49 4.22 4.48
RA/Game 4.31 4.89 4.48
OPS 0.629 0.719 0.714
wOBA 0.274 0.311 0.309
ERA 3.91 4.59 4.16
FIP 3.36 4.45 3.98
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.33
K/9 9.51 7.94 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.404 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 4.34 4.17
BP FIP 3.25 3.97 3.94
BP WHIP 1.24 1.36
BP K/9 9.44 9.11
BP Quality* 43.7 46.0 45.6
BP IP 142.0 166.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Austin Warren (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Peterson (69 pitches yesterday)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 37°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 77%
Conditions: Cold (37°F), light wind (7 mph) | Rain likely (77%)
Weather Factor: 0.9894 (Temp: 0.9576 | Wind: 1.0332)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.2 - COL 4.2
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.2 - COL 4.2
Win Probability: NYM 48.9% - COL 51.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +104 / COL -104
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 9.5: 35.1%
Under 9.5: 64.9%
NYM -1.5: 32.6%
COL +1.5: 67.4%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.794 / COL 1.117
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.958 / COL 1.009
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.4 - COL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.4 - COL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYM 55.1% - COL 44.9% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -123 / COL +123
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -166 +104 -13.5%
COL ML +140 -104 +9.4%
NYM -1.5 -102 +207 -17.9%
COL +1.5 -118 -207 +13.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -17.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +12.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.5%
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -118 | Edge: 13.3%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Erick Fedde Home: Sam Aldegheri
ERA: 5.23 ERA: 7.9
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 2.2
K/9: 5.37 K/9: 7.9
BB/9: 4.13 BB/9: 6.59
FIP: 5.06 FIP: 6.38
IP: 33.3 IP: 13.7
xERA: 5.41 xERA: 7.3
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.402
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Erick Fedde)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS LAA Lg Avg
Record 17-18 13-23
R/Game 4.29 4.39 4.48
RA/Game 4.54 4.97 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.705 0.714
wOBA 0.305 0.306 0.309
ERA 4.13 4.58 4.16
FIP 4.11 4.09 3.98
WHIP 1.37 1.44 1.33
K/9 8.20 8.96 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.71 5.48 4.17
BP FIP 4.44 4.59 3.94
BP WHIP 1.51 1.54
BP K/9 8.28 8.75
BP Quality* 52.7 56.0 45.6
BP IP 158.7 134.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (58 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9825 (Temp: 0.9902 | Wind: 0.9923)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.6 - LAA 5.4
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.6 - LAA 5.4
Win Probability: CWS 51.5% - LAA 48.5%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -106 / LAA +106
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.0: 59.5%
Under 9.0: 31.6%
CWS +1.5: 65.5%
LAA -1.5: 34.5%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 1.256 / LAA 1.420
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.156 / LAA 1.228
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 3.3 - LAA 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.3 - LAA 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CWS 53.4% - LAA 46.6% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -115 / LAA +115
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -104 -106 +0.5%
LAA ML -112 +106 -4.4%
CWS +1.5 -205 -189 -1.8%
LAA -1.5 +168 +189 -2.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.73%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00232
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 4.18 ERA: 4.68
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 8.81 K/9: 7.95
BB/9: 2.02 BB/9: 3.66
FIP: 2.88 FIP: 4.57
IP: 29.0 IP: 32.7
xERA: 3.66 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Bubba Chandler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ARI Lg Avg
Record 19-16 16-17
R/Game 5.14 4.57 4.48
RA/Game 4.26 5.45 4.48
OPS 0.732 0.718 0.714
wOBA 0.318 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.72 5.04 4.16
FIP 3.40 4.50 3.98
WHIP 1.23 1.41 1.33
K/9 9.30 7.56 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.586 0.420 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.70 4.83 4.17
BP FIP 3.66 4.21 3.94
BP WHIP 1.29 1.25
BP K/9 9.46 7.90
BP Quality* 43.6 48.2 45.6
BP IP 143.7 126.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9967 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 0.9958)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.5 - ARI 4.4
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.5 - ARI 4.4
Win Probability: PIT 59.5% - ARI 40.5%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -147 / ARI +147
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.0: 49.8%
Under 9.0: 40.5%
PIT +1.5: 73.6%
ARI -1.5: 26.4%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.938 / ARI 1.100
Bullpen Adj: PIT 0.956 / ARI 1.056
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 3.1 - ARI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.1 - ARI 2.4
F5 Win Prob: PIT 60.2% - ARI 39.8% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -151 / ARI +151
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +116 -147 +13.2%
ARI ML -136 +147 -17.2%
PIT +1.5 -182 -279 +9.1%
ARI -1.5 +150 +279 -13.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[HIGH CONVICTION] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line) [-182]
Model: 73.6% | Market: 64.5% | Edge: 9.1%
Fair ML: -279 | Kelly: 6.41%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00233
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +116 | Edge: 13.2%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Elder Home: George Kirby
ERA: 4.62 ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 7.54 K/9: 9.19
BB/9: 2.9 BB/9: 2.1
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 3.22
IP: 43.0 IP: 45.0
xERA: 4.73 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SEA Lg Avg
Record 25-11 17-19
R/Game 5.81 4.11 4.48
RA/Game 3.58 4.03 4.48
OPS 0.809 0.699 0.714
wOBA 0.344 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.25 3.73 4.16
FIP 3.84 3.54 3.98
WHIP 1.19 1.25 1.33
K/9 8.64 8.32 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.707 0.509 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.29 3.12 4.17
BP FIP 3.32 3.03 3.94
BP WHIP 1.13 1.34
BP K/9 9.09 8.90
BP Quality* 42.2 40.6 45.6
BP IP 128.7 115.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Bummer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0051 (Temp: 0.9954 | Wind: 1.0098)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.7 - SEA 4.0
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.7 - SEA 4.0
Win Probability: ATL 56.7% - SEA 43.3%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -131 / SEA +131
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 58.8%
Under 7.5: 41.2%
ATL +1.5: 72.4%
SEA -1.5: 27.6%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.071 / SEA 0.875
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.925 / SEA 0.890
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.6 - SEA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.6 - SEA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATL 54.4% - SEA 45.6% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -120 / SEA +120
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +120 -131 +11.2%
SEA ML -142 +131 -15.4%
ATL +1.5 -182 -262 +7.8%
SEA -1.5 +150 +262 -12.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line) [-182]
Model: 72.4% | Market: 64.5% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -262 | Kelly: 5.52%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00234
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +120 | Edge: 11.2%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | May 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walker Buehler Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 5.01 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 6.92 K/9: 9.35
BB/9: 4.35 BB/9: 2.21
FIP: 4.98 FIP: 2.64
IP: 25.0 IP: 44.0
xERA: 5.41 xERA: 3.58
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SF Lg Avg
Record 20-14 14-21
R/Game 4.32 3.11 4.48
RA/Game 4.37 4.06 4.48
OPS 0.681 0.645 0.714
wOBA 0.294 0.279 0.309
ERA 4.26 3.81 4.16
FIP 3.64 3.94 3.98
WHIP 1.30 1.29 1.33
K/9 8.71 8.32 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.496 0.381 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.92 3.04 4.17
BP FIP 3.17 3.87 3.94
BP WHIP 1.26 1.29
BP K/9 9.10 8.55
BP Quality* 43.2 45.6 45.6
BP IP 134.7 112.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 55°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (55°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9605 (Temp: 0.9797 | Wind: 0.9804)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.3 - SF 3.0
Simulated Avg: SD 3.3 - SF 3.0
Win Probability: SD 53.7% - SF 46.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD -116 / SF +116
Avg Total Runs: 6.3
Over 7.5: 31.5%
Under 7.5: 68.5%
SD +1.5: 73.3%
SF -1.5: 26.7%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.096 / SF 0.762
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.948 / SF 1.000
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.6 - SF 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.7 - SF 1.7
F5 Win Prob: SD 48.0% - SF 52.0% (Tie: 20.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +108 / SF -108
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +112 -116 +6.5%
SF ML -132 +116 -10.6%
SD +1.5 -184 -275 +8.6%
SF -1.5 +152 +275 -13.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -20.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +16.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[HIGH CONVICTION] San Diego Padres +1.5 (Run Line) [-184]
Model: 73.3% | Market: 64.8% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -275 | Kelly: 6.07%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00235
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.1%