2026-05-06
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-06
Games: 15 | Plays: 5
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Patrick Corbin Home: Shane McClanahan
ERA: 4.29 ERA: 3.1
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.55 K/9: 9.31
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 4.03
FIP: 4.12 FIP: 2.82
IP: 24.7 IP: 29.0
xERA: 4.77 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
Record 16-20 23-12
R/Game 4.08 4.46 4.49
RA/Game 4.61 4.11 4.49
OPS 0.698 0.704 0.714
wOBA 0.301 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.28 3.65 4.16
FIP 3.64 4.01 3.99
WHIP 1.31 1.20 1.33
K/9 9.35 7.82 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.537 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 4.29 4.16
BP FIP 3.18 4.56 3.93
BP WHIP 1.33 1.34
BP K/9 10.31 7.94
BP Quality* 46.2 56.3 45.5
BP IP 149.3 138.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Hunter Bigge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Daulton Varsho, Jesús Sánchez
Daulton Varsho CF OPS: 0.832 (248 AB)
Jesús Sánchez LF OPS: 0.699 (451 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.3% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jake Fraley, Cedric Mullins
Jake Fraley RF OPS: 0.714 (191 AB)
Cedric Mullins CF OPS: 0.690 (435 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.6 - TB 4.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.6 - TB 4.3
Win Probability: TOR 42.4% - TB 57.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +136 / TB -136
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 50.9%
Under 7.5: 49.1%
TOR +1.5: 60.3%
TB -1.5: 39.7%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 1.030 / TB 0.825
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.015 / TB 1.237
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.7 - TB 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.7 - TB 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 36.7% - TB 63.3% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +172 / TB -172
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +118 +136 -3.5%
TB ML -138 -136 -0.3%
TOR +1.5 -192 -152 -5.5%
TB -1.5 +158 +152 +1.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -3.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 6.75 ERA: 5.04
WHIP: 1.61 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 8.44 K/9: 6.37
BB/9: 5.06 BB/9: 3.53
FIP: 6.32 FIP: 4.54
IP: 26.7 IP: 31.3
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: STL (Andre Pallante)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
Record 18-16 21-14
R/Game 5.14 4.91 4.49
RA/Game 3.91 4.83 4.49
OPS 0.695 0.729 0.714
wOBA 0.301 0.312 0.309
ERA 3.64 4.50 4.16
FIP 3.42 4.40 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.43 1.33
K/9 9.48 6.92 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.623 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.92 4.16
BP FIP 3.41 4.18 3.93
BP WHIP 1.39 1.50
BP K/9 9.01 7.68
BP Quality* 43.1 50.7 45.5
BP IP 139.7 133.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jake Woodford (2 of last 3 days)
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Gary Sánchez, Luis Rengifo
Gary Sánchez C OPS: 0.715 (91 AB)
Luis Rengifo 3B OPS: 0.622 (501 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.9% of full strength
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Cool (57°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0057 (Temp: 0.9822 | Wind: 1.0239)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.4 - STL 5.4
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.4 - STL 5.4
Win Probability: MIL 50.2% - STL 49.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -101 / STL +101
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 8.0: 66.9%
Under 8.0: 24.6%
MIL +1.5: 64.3%
STL -1.5: 35.7%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 1.174 / STL 1.101
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.947 / STL 1.114
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 3.0 - STL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.0 - STL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 47.4% - STL 52.6% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +111 / STL -111
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -106 -101 -1.3%
STL ML -110 +101 -2.6%
MIL +1.5 -196 -180 -1.9%
STL -1.5 +162 +180 -2.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +14.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -27.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.5%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Glasnow Home: Lance McCullers Jr.
ERA: 3.08 ERA: 6.48
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.74
K/9: 10.63 K/9: 9.84
BB/9: 4.07 BB/9: 6.09
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 5.17
IP: 38.7 IP: 31.3
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 5.34
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.353
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tyler Glasnow)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD HOU Lg Avg
Record 22-14 15-22
R/Game 5.11 4.95 4.49
RA/Game 3.25 5.68 4.49
OPS 0.788 0.775 0.714
wOBA 0.336 0.330 0.309
ERA 3.19 5.65 4.16
FIP 3.44 4.88 3.99
WHIP 1.11 1.62 1.33
K/9 9.09 9.24 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.696 0.437 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.69 6.20 4.16
BP FIP 3.04 5.54 3.93
BP WHIP 1.18 1.65
BP K/9 9.86 8.92
BP Quality* 39.6 65.1 45.5
BP IP 105.0 158.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 26%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0027 (Temp: 1.0115 | Wind: 0.9913)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 6.8 - HOU 4.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.8 - HOU 4.2
Win Probability: LAD 71.4% - HOU 28.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -250 / HOU +250
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 8.5: 68.0%
Under 8.5: 31.9%
LAD -1.5: 58.5%
HOU +1.5: 41.5%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.804 / HOU 1.336
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.870 / HOU 1.400
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 3.8 - HOU 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.8 - HOU 2.2
F5 Win Prob: LAD 70.4% - HOU 29.6% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -238 / HOU +238
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -215 -250 +3.2%
HOU ML +180 +250 -7.2%
LAD -1.5 -134 -141 +1.2%
HOU +1.5 +112 +141 -5.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +15.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -20.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.7%
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matt Waldron Home: Adrian Houser
ERA: 9.88 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.98 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 5.27 K/9: 6.3
BB/9: 3.29 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 5.87 FIP: 3.93
IP: 13.7 IP: 30.3
xERA: 11.19 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.472 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: SF (Adrian Houser)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD SF Lg Avg
Record 21-14 14-22
R/Game 4.49 3.17 4.49
RA/Game 4.40 4.22 4.49
OPS 0.690 0.645 0.714
wOBA 0.298 0.278 0.309
ERA 4.30 3.99 4.16
FIP 3.65 3.95 3.99
WHIP 1.29 1.30 1.33
K/9 8.68 8.23 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.371 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.90 3.21 4.16
BP FIP 3.21 3.87 3.93
BP WHIP 1.24 1.31
BP K/9 9.04 8.26
BP Quality* 41.7 46.4 45.5
BP IP 138.3 117.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9798 (Temp: 0.9927 | Wind: 0.9870)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.0 - SF 3.9
Simulated Avg: SD 4.0 - SF 3.9
Win Probability: SD 50.7% - SF 49.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD -103 / SF +103
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.5: 39.7%
Under 8.5: 60.3%
SD -1.5: 34.1%
SF +1.5: 65.9%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.570 / SF 0.956
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.916 / SF 1.020
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - SF 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - SF 2.6
F5 Win Prob: SD 43.3% - SF 56.7% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +131 / SF -131
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -112 -103 -2.2%
SF ML -104 +103 -1.7%
SD -1.5 +146 +194 -6.6%
SF +1.5 -176 -194 +2.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00236
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Noah Schultz Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 2.53 ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.84
K/9: 8.44 K/9: 9.37
BB/9: 5.06 BB/9: 7.16
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 4.2
IP: 21.3 IP: 16.3
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Noah Schultz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS LAA Lg Avg
Record 17-19 14-23
R/Game 4.25 4.38 4.49
RA/Game 4.53 4.92 4.49
OPS 0.708 0.709 0.714
wOBA 0.305 0.308 0.309
ERA 4.14 4.54 4.16
FIP 4.19 4.09 3.99
WHIP 1.36 1.44 1.33
K/9 8.14 8.96 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.61 5.35 4.16
BP FIP 4.37 4.54 3.93
BP WHIP 1.49 1.53
BP K/9 8.28 9.02
BP Quality* 54.8 56.7 45.5
BP IP 162.0 139.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jordan Leasure (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Drew Pomeranz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9811 (Temp: 1.0015 | Wind: 0.9796)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.6 - LAA 4.4
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.6 - LAA 4.4
Win Probability: CWS 52.0% - LAA 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -109 / LAA +109
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.0: 40.6%
Under 9.0: 49.7%
CWS -1.5: 36.3%
LAA +1.5: 63.7%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 0.840 / LAA 1.026
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.204 / LAA 1.246
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.4 - LAA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.4 - LAA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CWS 55.8% - LAA 44.2% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -126 / LAA +126
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML -108 -109 +0.1%
LAA ML -108 +109 -4.0%
CWS -1.5 +146 +176 -4.4%
LAA +1.5 -178 -176 -0.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Martín Pérez Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 3.39 ERA: 3.27
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 6.95 K/9: 8.91
BB/9: 3.5 BB/9: 1.66
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 3.5
IP: 28.3 IP: 41.0
xERA: 5.37 xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL SEA Lg Avg
Record 26-11 17-20
R/Game 5.73 4.05 4.49
RA/Game 3.54 4.00 4.49
OPS 0.802 0.694 0.714
wOBA 0.341 0.304 0.309
ERA 3.22 3.71 4.16
FIP 3.78 3.53 3.99
WHIP 1.18 1.24 1.33
K/9 8.84 8.34 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.707 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.21 3.14 4.16
BP FIP 3.21 3.10 3.93
BP WHIP 1.12 1.33
BP K/9 9.36 9.05
BP Quality* 42.8 40.9 45.5
BP IP 131.7 117.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Aaron Bummer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jose A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9764 (Temp: 0.9881 | Wind: 0.9882)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.3 - SEA 3.2
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.3 - SEA 3.2
Win Probability: ATL 61.3% - SEA 38.7%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -158 / SEA +158
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.0: 35.4%
Under 8.0: 54.0%
ATL +1.5: 77.9%
SEA -1.5: 22.1%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.790 / SEA 0.791
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.941 / SEA 0.899
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.3 - SEA 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.3 - SEA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: ATL 62.4% - SEA 37.6% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -166 / SEA +166
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +116 -158 +15.0%
SEA ML -134 +158 -18.6%
ATL +1.5 -196 -353 +11.7%
SEA -1.5 +162 +353 -16.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -16.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +1.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +116 | Edge: 15.0%
[HMC] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -196 | Edge: 11.7%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sonny Gray Home: Jack Flaherty
ERA: 4.28 ERA: 4.89
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 9.31 K/9: 10.39
BB/9: 1.9 BB/9: 4.19
FIP: 3.45 FIP: 4.12
IP: 23.0 IP: 29.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS DET Lg Avg
Record 15-21 18-19
R/Game 4.03 4.46 4.49
RA/Game 4.33 4.19 4.49
OPS 0.679 0.725 0.714
wOBA 0.299 0.317 0.309
ERA 4.11 3.93 4.16
FIP 4.23 3.67 3.99
WHIP 1.31 1.32 1.33
K/9 8.25 8.65 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.529 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.40 3.88 4.16
BP FIP 3.98 3.84 3.93
BP WHIP 1.24 1.40
BP K/9 8.47 8.89
BP Quality* 46.6 51.9 45.5
BP IP 140.3 134.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (94 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Enmanuel De Jesus (B2B, 32 pitches)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ricky Vanasco (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Burch Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9754 (Temp: 0.9807 | Wind: 0.9946)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.1 - DET 4.5
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.1 - DET 4.5
Win Probability: BOS 46.5% - DET 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +115 / DET -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 46.7%
Under 8.5: 53.3%
BOS +1.5: 63.2%
DET -1.5: 36.8%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 1.004 / DET 1.037
Bullpen Adj: BOS 1.024 / DET 1.141
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.2 - DET 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.2 - DET 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BOS 46.9% - DET 53.1% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +113 / DET -113
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -102 +115 -4.0%
DET ML -116 -115 -0.2%
BOS +1.5 -184 -172 -1.6%
DET -1.5 +152 +172 -2.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jeffrey Springs Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 4.08 ERA: 2.7
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 7.44 K/9: 11.71
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 2.1
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 2.76
IP: 38.7 IP: 11.0
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 2.49
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.247
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH PHI Lg Avg
Record 18-17 16-20
R/Game 4.29 3.92 4.49
RA/Game 4.80 4.86 4.49
OPS 0.724 0.681 0.714
wOBA 0.310 0.296 0.309
ERA 4.68 4.51 4.16
FIP 4.73 3.35 3.99
WHIP 1.47 1.44 1.33
K/9 7.92 9.64 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.82 4.22 4.16
BP FIP 4.47 3.30 3.93
BP WHIP 1.49 1.41
BP K/9 8.25 9.11
BP Quality* 52.9 43.0 45.5
BP IP 136.3 134.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 23%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9757 (Temp: 0.9957 | Wind: 0.9799)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 3.9 - PHI 4.4
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.9 - PHI 4.4
Win Probability: ATH 44.8% - PHI 55.2%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +123 / PHI -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
ATH -1.5: 28.8%
ATH +1.5: 61.8%
PHI -1.5: 38.2%
PHI +1.5: 71.2%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.040 / PHI 0.910
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.163 / PHI 0.945
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.2 - PHI 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.1 - PHI 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 47.6% - PHI 52.4% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +110 / PHI -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Young Home: Eury Pérez
ERA: 6.07 ERA: 4.29
WHIP: 1.54 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.18 K/9: 9.86
BB/9: 3.4 BB/9: 3.21
FIP: 5.34 FIP: 3.72
IP: 14.7 IP: 36.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.23
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.281
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL MIA Lg Avg
Record 16-20 16-20
R/Game 4.56 4.25 4.49
RA/Game 5.64 4.36 4.49
OPS 0.705 0.710 0.714
wOBA 0.307 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.90 4.01 4.16
FIP 4.42 3.65 3.99
WHIP 1.50 1.25 1.33
K/9 8.47 8.61 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.404 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.86 3.42 4.16
BP FIP 4.21 3.37 3.93
BP WHIP 1.38 1.22
BP K/9 9.26 9.76
BP Quality* 56.5 43.9 45.5
BP IP 137.0 126.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keegan Akin (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 1.0139 | Wind: 0.9803)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 3.8 - MIA 5.1
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.8 - MIA 5.1
Win Probability: BAL 37.0% - MIA 63.0%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +170 / MIA -170
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 49.5%
Under 8.5: 50.5%
BAL +1.5: 53.5%
MIA -1.5: 46.5%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.290 / MIA 0.887
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.242 / MIA 0.965
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.1 - MIA 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.0 - MIA 2.8
F5 Win Prob: BAL 37.1% - MIA 62.9% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +170 / MIA -170
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +106 +170 -11.5%
MIA ML -124 -170 +7.6%
BAL +1.5 -194 -115 -12.4%
MIA -1.5 +160 +115 +8.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Miami Marlins -1.5 (Run Line) [+160]
Model: 46.5% | Market: 38.5% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: +115 | Kelly: 3.25%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00237
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bailey Ober Home: Miles Mikolas
ERA: 4.79 ERA: 5.23
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.28 K/9: 5.82
BB/9: 2.14 BB/9: 2.3
FIP: 4.6 FIP: 5.14
IP: 38.0 IP: 27.3
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 5.27
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Bailey Ober)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN WSH Lg Avg
Record 16-20 16-20
R/Game 4.89 5.08 4.49
RA/Game 4.81 5.78 4.49
OPS 0.712 0.697 0.714
wOBA 0.312 0.301 0.309
ERA 4.41 4.90 4.16
FIP 3.92 4.89 3.99
WHIP 1.36 1.46 1.33
K/9 7.86 7.53 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.26 4.77 4.16
BP FIP 4.06 4.98 3.93
BP WHIP 1.54 1.45
BP K/9 7.39 6.68
BP Quality* 53.1 56.5 45.5
BP IP 126.7 169.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Eric Orze (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Andre Granillo (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9901 (Temp: 1.0018 | Wind: 0.9883)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.7 - WSH 5.7
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.7 - WSH 5.7
Win Probability: MIN 50.1% - WSH 49.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -101 / WSH +101
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 9.5: 61.8%
Under 9.5: 38.2%
MIN -1.5: 36.9%
WSH +1.5: 63.1%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.097 / WSH 1.210
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.167 / WSH 1.242
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Win Prob: MIN 51.8% - WSH 48.2% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -108 / WSH +108
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -136 -101 -7.5%
WSH ML +116 +101 +3.6%
MIN -1.5 +120 +171 -8.5%
WSH +1.5 -144 -171 +4.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +9.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -14.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[HIGH CONVICTION] Over 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -162 | Kelly: 4.97%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00238
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Will Warren
ERA: 2.34 ERA: 4.03
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 8.91 K/9: 9.78
BB/9: 1.61 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 3.05 FIP: 3.7
IP: 39.7 IP: 37.7
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX NYY Lg Avg
Record 16-19 25-11
R/Game 3.74 5.53 4.49
RA/Game 3.86 3.33 4.49
OPS 0.689 0.797 0.714
wOBA 0.299 0.338 0.309
ERA 3.77 2.98 4.16
FIP 3.95 3.25 3.99
WHIP 1.23 1.14 1.33
K/9 8.95 8.81 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.716 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.78 3.36 4.16
BP FIP 3.84 3.38 3.93
BP WHIP 1.17 1.28
BP K/9 7.54 8.74
BP Quality* 40.7 45.6 45.5
BP IP 123.0 115.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 28%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9709 (Temp: 0.9932 | Wind: 0.9775)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.5 - NYY 4.2
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.5 - NYY 4.2
Win Probability: TEX 42.3% - NYY 57.7%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +136 / NYY -136
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.5: 37.8%
Under 8.5: 62.2%
TEX +1.5: 60.6%
NYY -1.5: 39.4%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.686 / NYY 0.983
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.895 / NYY 1.002
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.0 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.0 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TEX 48.0% - NYY 52.0% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +108 / NYY -108
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +168 +136 +5.0%
NYY ML -200 -136 -9.0%
TEX +1.5 -125 -154 +5.1%
NYY -1.5 +104 +154 -9.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -14.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[HIGH CONVICTION] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -164 | Kelly: 5.14%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00239
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brady Singer Home: Colin Rea
ERA: 4.34 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.03 K/9: 7.3
BB/9: 3.05 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 3.89
IP: 32.3 IP: 32.7
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
Record 20-16 24-12
R/Game 4.08 5.36 4.49
RA/Game 4.75 4.14 4.49
OPS 0.687 0.780 0.714
wOBA 0.298 0.336 0.309
ERA 4.45 3.83 4.16
FIP 4.55 3.97 3.99
WHIP 1.50 1.17 1.33
K/9 7.83 8.36 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.431 0.616 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 3.72 4.16
BP FIP 4.65 4.04 3.93
BP WHIP 1.58 1.21
BP K/9 9.06 8.33
BP Quality* 54.1 47.8 45.5
BP IP 139.0 130.7
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 52°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (52°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9976 (Temp: 0.9765 | Wind: 1.0217)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.2 - CHC 6.2
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.2 - CHC 6.1
Win Probability: CIN 33.3% - CHC 66.7%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +201 / CHC -201
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.0: 63.1%
Under 8.0: 27.8%
CIN +1.5: 47.7%
CHC -1.5: 52.3%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 1.010 / CHC 0.994
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.189 / CHC 1.051
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - CHC 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - CHC 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CIN 37.2% - CHC 62.8% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +169 / CHC -169
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +142 +201 -8.1%
CHC ML -168 -201 +4.1%
CIN +1.5 -150 +110 -12.3%
CHC -1.5 +125 -110 +7.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +10.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -24.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago Cubs -1.5 (Run Line) [+125]
Model: 52.3% | Market: 44.4% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -110 | Kelly: 3.55%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00240
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.7%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Cole Ragans
ERA: 3.3 ERA: 4.79
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 10.05 K/9: 13.72
BB/9: 4.01 BB/9: 3.51
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 3.2
IP: 34.3 IP: 32.3
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 2.67
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.256
Pitcher Edge: KC (Cole Ragans)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
Record 18-19 17-19
R/Game 4.08 4.19 4.49
RA/Game 4.32 4.50 4.49
OPS 0.693 0.710 0.714
wOBA 0.301 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.06 4.28 4.16
FIP 4.08 4.32 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.35 1.33
K/9 9.30 8.57 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 4.82 4.16
BP FIP 3.87 4.68 3.93
BP WHIP 1.28 1.45
BP K/9 9.49 8.64
BP Quality* 47.3 53.6 45.5
BP IP 123.3 117.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Peyton Pallette (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9978 (Temp: 0.9843 | Wind: 1.0137)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.8 - KC 4.0
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.8 - KC 3.9
Win Probability: CLE 48.7% - KC 51.3%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +105 / KC -105
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 48.9%
Under 7.5: 51.1%
CLE +1.5: 66.5%
KC -1.5: 33.5%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.864 / KC 0.820
Bullpen Adj: CLE 1.040 / KC 1.178
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.8 - KC 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.8 - KC 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CLE 46.0% - KC 54.0% (Tie: 19.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +117 / KC -117
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +116 +105 +2.4%
KC ML -134 -105 -6.0%
CLE +1.5 -192 -199 +0.8%
KC -1.5 +158 +199 -5.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Michael Lorenzen
ERA: 2.86 ERA: 4.93
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 10.28 K/9: 7.73
BB/9: 3.44 BB/9: 2.46
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 4.5
IP: 38.3 IP: 34.0
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Freddy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM COL Lg Avg
Record 13-22 14-22
R/Game 3.49 4.22 4.49
RA/Game 4.31 4.89 4.49
OPS 0.629 0.719 0.714
wOBA 0.274 0.311 0.309
ERA 3.91 4.59 4.16
FIP 3.36 4.45 3.99
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.33
K/9 9.51 7.94 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.404 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 4.34 4.16
BP FIP 3.25 3.97 3.93
BP WHIP 1.24 1.36
BP K/9 9.44 9.11
BP Quality* 39.2 46.0 45.5
BP IP 142.0 166.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 38°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cold (38°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9484 (Temp: 0.9590 | Wind: 0.9890)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.0 - COL 3.9
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.0 - COL 3.9
Win Probability: NYM 51.0% - COL 49.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -104 / COL +104
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 9.5: 29.8%
Under 9.5: 70.2%
NYM -1.5: 33.9%
COL +1.5: 66.1%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.794 / COL 1.117
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.862 / COL 1.011
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.3 - COL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.3 - COL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: NYM 55.2% - COL 44.8% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -123 / COL +123
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -166 -104 -11.4%
COL ML +140 +104 +7.3%
NYM -1.5 -108 +195 -18.0%
COL +1.5 -111 -195 +13.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -22.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +17.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.8%
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -111 | Edge: 13.5%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | May 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Paul Skenes Home: Michael Soroka
ERA: 2.16 ERA: 4.55
WHIP: 0.92 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 10.35 K/9: 9.72
BB/9: 1.98 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 2.37 FIP: 3.55
IP: 34.0 IP: 30.7
xERA: 2.65 xERA: 3.53
xwOBA: 0.255 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ARI Lg Avg
Record 19-17 17-17
R/Game 5.00 4.68 4.49
RA/Game 4.39 5.31 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.723 0.714
wOBA 0.314 0.309 0.309
ERA 3.85 4.91 4.16
FIP 3.44 4.43 3.99
WHIP 1.25 1.38 1.33
K/9 9.18 7.58 8.54
Pythag Win% 0.559 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.05 4.76 4.16
BP FIP 3.67 4.16 3.93
BP WHIP 1.32 1.23
BP K/9 9.27 7.91
BP Quality* 43.6 47.6 45.5
BP IP 146.7 128.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0101 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9973)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.8 - ARI 3.6
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.8 - ARI 3.6
Win Probability: PIT 62.5% - ARI 37.5%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -167 / ARI +167
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 44.6%
Under 8.0: 44.8%
PIT -1.5: 45.7%
ARI +1.5: 54.3%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.581 / ARI 0.912
Bullpen Adj: PIT 0.958 / ARI 1.045
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.6 - ARI 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.6 - ARI 1.6
F5 Win Prob: PIT 68.5% - ARI 31.5% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -217 / ARI +217
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -132 -167 +5.7%
ARI ML +112 +167 -9.7%
PIT -1.5 +130 +119 +2.2%
ARI +1.5 -156 -119 -6.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================