2026-05-08
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-08
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mike Burrows Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 4.35 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 8.99 K/9: 8.96
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 1.78
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 3.53
IP: 37.7 IP: 156.7
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Nick Lodolo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CIN Lg Avg
Record 15-23 20-18
R/Game 4.87 4.11 4.48
RA/Game 5.84 4.89 4.48
OPS 0.767 0.693 0.714
wOBA 0.327 0.301 0.308
ERA 5.82 4.59 4.17
FIP 4.94 4.61 4.00
WHIP 1.63 1.51 1.33
K/9 9.23 7.77 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.417 0.420 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.29 4.39 4.16
BP FIP 5.58 4.69 3.94
BP WHIP 1.66 1.59
BP K/9 8.85 8.90
BP Quality* 62.6 58.0 45.5
BP IP 164.7 147.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Connor Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Franco (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9708 (Temp: 0.9957 | Wind: 0.9750)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.0 - CIN 5.0
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.0 - CIN 5.1
Win Probability: HOU 49.3% - CIN 50.7%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +103 / CIN -103
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 9.0: 51.4%
Under 9.0: 39.1%
HOU +1.5: 64.0%
CIN -1.5: 36.0%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.012 / CIN 0.830
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.376 / CIN 1.275
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.3 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.3 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: HOU 47.9% - CIN 52.1% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +109 / CIN -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +118 +103 +3.4%
CIN ML -138 -103 -7.3%
HOU +1.5 -176 -178 +0.3%
CIN -1.5 +142 +178 -5.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -1.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chase Dollander Home: Jesús Luzardo
ERA: 6.43 ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.54 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 7.6 K/9: 10.72
BB/9: 4.45 BB/9: 2.63
FIP: 5.25 FIP: 2.75
IP: 37.3 IP: 40.7
xERA: 5.13 xERA: 3.33
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL PHI Lg Avg
Record 15-23 17-21
R/Game 4.29 3.89 4.48
RA/Game 4.95 5.00 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.682 0.714
wOBA 0.315 0.296 0.308
ERA 4.67 4.67 4.17
FIP 4.48 3.52 4.00
WHIP 1.41 1.45 1.33
K/9 7.76 9.52 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.388 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.31 4.24 4.16
BP FIP 4.02 3.36 3.94
BP WHIP 1.35 1.42
BP K/9 8.98 9.17
BP Quality* 46.1 46.4 45.5
BP IP 173.3 142.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tanner Banks (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (44 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9866 (Temp: 0.9946 | Wind: 0.9919)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 3.8 - PHI 4.8
Simulated Avg: COL 3.8 - PHI 4.8
Win Probability: COL 39.5% - PHI 60.5%
Fair Moneyline: COL +153 / PHI -153
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.2%
Under 7.5: 42.8%
COL +1.5: 56.0%
PHI -1.5: 44.0%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.320 / PHI 0.792
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.013 / PHI 1.020
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 1.9 - PHI 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 1.9 - PHI 2.9
F5 Win Prob: COL 33.6% - PHI 66.4% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +198 / PHI -198
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +184 +153 +4.3%
PHI ML -220 -153 -8.3%
COL +1.5 -126 -127 +0.2%
PHI -1.5 +105 +127 -4.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob Lopez Home: Kyle Bradish
ERA: 4.51 ERA: 3.03
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 10.27 K/9: 12.43
BB/9: 4.11 BB/9: 3.36
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 2.82
IP: 30.0 IP: 34.0
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Kyle Bradish)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH BAL Lg Avg
Record 19-18 17-21
R/Game 4.46 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.73 5.55 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.708 0.714
wOBA 0.314 0.309 0.308
ERA 4.57 4.83 4.17
FIP 4.65 4.38 4.00
WHIP 1.46 1.48 1.33
K/9 7.92 8.32 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.413 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.82 4.63 4.16
BP FIP 4.41 4.12 3.94
BP WHIP 1.50 1.35
BP K/9 8.23 9.02
BP Quality* 51.2 55.2 45.5
BP IP 140.0 145.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Keegan Akin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9839 (Temp: 0.9948 | Wind: 0.9890)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - BAL 4.9
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.0 - BAL 5.0
Win Probability: ATH 40.5% - BAL 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +147 / BAL -147
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
ATH -1.5: 25.7%
ATH +1.5: 56.7%
BAL -1.5: 43.3%
BAL +1.5: 74.3%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 0.995 / BAL 0.712
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.125 / BAL 1.213
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 1.8 - BAL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.8 - BAL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATH 35.6% - BAL 64.4% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +181 / BAL -181
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Reid Detmers Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 4.25
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 11.03 K/9: 11.85
BB/9: 3.23 BB/9: 3.89
FIP: 2.9 FIP: 3.13
IP: 40.0 IP: 38.3
xERA: 3.61 xERA: 3.46
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TOR Lg Avg
Record 15-23 16-21
R/Game 4.47 3.97 4.48
RA/Game 4.84 4.57 4.48
OPS 0.714 0.690 0.714
wOBA 0.310 0.297 0.308
ERA 4.47 4.23 4.17
FIP 4.05 3.66 4.00
WHIP 1.42 1.31 1.33
K/9 8.99 9.20 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.437 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.30 4.20 4.16
BP FIP 4.48 3.21 3.94
BP WHIP 1.52 1.33
BP K/9 9.15 10.24
BP Quality* 54.6 43.1 45.5
BP IP 142.7 152.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Drew Pomeranz (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.9 - TOR 4.0
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.9 - TOR 4.0
Win Probability: LAA 49.2% - TOR 50.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +103 / TOR -103
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 49.5%
Under 7.5: 50.5%
LAA +1.5: 66.8%
TOR -1.5: 33.2%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.822 / TOR 0.845
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.200 / TOR 0.947
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.1 - TOR 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.1 - TOR 1.8
F5 Win Prob: LAA 54.9% - TOR 45.1% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -122 / TOR +122
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +136 +103 +6.9%
TOR ML -162 -103 -11.1%
LAA +1.5 -164 -201 +4.7%
TOR -1.5 +136 +201 -9.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jesse Scholtens Home: Connelly Early
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 3.79
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 7.82
BB/9: 2.38 BB/9: 4.29
FIP: 3.54 FIP: 4.61
IP: 22.7 IP: 35.7
xERA: 3.19 xERA: 2.35
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.24
Pitcher Edge: TB (Jesse Scholtens)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
Record 25-12 16-22
R/Game 4.51 4.03 4.48
RA/Game 4.00 4.32 4.48
OPS 0.709 0.668 0.714
wOBA 0.306 0.295 0.308
ERA 3.54 4.11 4.17
FIP 3.90 4.23 4.00
WHIP 1.17 1.32 1.33
K/9 7.75 8.08 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.555 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.47 4.16
BP FIP 4.40 4.03 3.94
BP WHIP 1.30 1.26
BP K/9 7.85 8.45
BP Quality* 53.1 48.8 45.5
BP IP 146.7 148.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Hunter Bigge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Tyler Samaniego (B2B, 31 pitches)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (51 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 55°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (55°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9612 (Temp: 0.9791 | Wind: 0.9817)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.2 - BOS 4.0
Simulated Avg: TB 4.2 - BOS 4.0
Win Probability: TB 52.8% - BOS 47.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB -112 / BOS +112
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 42.8%
Under 8.5: 57.2%
TB +1.5: 69.6%
BOS -1.5: 30.4%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.814 / BOS 0.867
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.167 / BOS 1.073
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.2 - BOS 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.2 - BOS 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TB 56.1% - BOS 43.9% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -128 / BOS +128
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML +118 -112 +6.9%
BOS ML -138 +112 -10.8%
TB +1.5 -182 -229 +5.1%
BOS -1.5 +150 +229 -9.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -9.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Foster Griffin Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
Record 18-20 17-21
R/Game 5.39 4.24 4.48
RA/Game 5.66 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.721 0.702 0.714
wOBA 0.309 0.307 0.308
ERA 4.83 4.06 4.17
FIP 4.83 3.65 4.00
WHIP 1.43 1.26 1.33
K/9 7.48 8.61 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.483 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 3.42 4.16
BP FIP 4.86 3.33 3.94
BP WHIP 1.42 1.21
BP K/9 6.80 9.58
BP Quality* 53.7 43.7 45.5
BP IP 177.3 134.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Nardi (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0017 (Temp: 1.0139 | Wind: 0.9880)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.8 - MIA 3.9
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.9 - MIA 3.9
Win Probability: WSH 59.8% - MIA 40.2%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -149 / MIA +149
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 48.2%
Under 8.5: 51.8%
WSH +1.5: 74.9%
MIA -1.5: 25.1%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 0.812 / MIA 1.000
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.180 / MIA 0.960
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.8 - MIA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.7 - MIA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: WSH 66.1% - MIA 33.9% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -195 / MIA +195
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +108 -149 +11.8%
MIA ML -126 +149 -15.6%
WSH +1.5 -205 -298 +7.7%
MIA -1.5 +168 +298 -12.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-205]
Model: 74.9% | Market: 67.2% | Edge: 7.7%
Fair ML: -298 | Kelly: 5.85%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00241
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +108 | Edge: 11.8%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Connor Prielipp Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 2.66
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 9.64 K/9: 8.81
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 1.52
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 2.95
IP: 14.0 IP: 41.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
Record 16-22 20-19
R/Game 4.82 4.15 4.48
RA/Game 5.13 4.26 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.696 0.714
wOBA 0.310 0.303 0.308
ERA 4.80 4.01 4.17
FIP 4.08 4.11 4.00
WHIP 1.39 1.28 1.33
K/9 7.81 9.20 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.80 4.12 4.16
BP FIP 4.41 3.95 3.94
BP WHIP 1.59 1.29
BP K/9 7.49 9.69
BP Quality* 59.8 50.5 45.5
BP IP 133.3 131.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis García (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Klein (31 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Brogdon (36 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 52°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 41%
Conditions: Cool (52°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9488 (Temp: 0.9765 | Wind: 0.9716)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 3.8 - CLE 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIN 3.8 - CLE 4.5
Win Probability: MIN 42.0% - CLE 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +138 / CLE -138
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.7%
Under 7.5: 45.3%
MIN +1.5: 59.0%
CLE -1.5: 41.0%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.061 / CLE 0.700
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.314 / CLE 1.110
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 1.7 - CLE 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.7 - CLE 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIN 38.8% - CLE 61.2% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +158 / CLE -158
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +122 +138 -3.0%
CLE ML -144 -138 -1.0%
MIN +1.5 -184 -144 -5.8%
CLE -1.5 +152 +144 +1.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Keider Montero Home: Kris Bubic
ERA: 4.22 ERA: 2.7
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.07 K/9: 9.04
BB/9: 2.87 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 4.58 FIP: 2.9
IP: 33.7 IP: 40.7
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 3.16
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: KC (Kris Bubic)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET KC Lg Avg
Record 18-20 17-21
R/Game 4.34 4.13 4.48
RA/Game 4.18 4.55 4.48
OPS 0.719 0.711 0.714
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.308
ERA 3.88 4.35 4.17
FIP 3.62 4.30 4.00
WHIP 1.32 1.37 1.33
K/9 8.83 8.62 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.456 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 4.90 4.16
BP FIP 3.87 4.68 3.94
BP WHIP 1.41 1.46
BP K/9 8.96 8.60
BP Quality* 45.8 60.0 45.5
BP IP 138.7 128.7
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Burch Smith (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Eric Cerantola (B2B, 44 pitches)
TIRED: Nick Mears (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9845 (Temp: 0.9976 | Wind: 0.9868)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.0 - KC 4.3
Simulated Avg: DET 4.0 - KC 4.3
Win Probability: DET 46.6% - KC 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: DET +115 / KC -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 43.8%
Under 8.5: 56.2%
DET +1.5: 63.6%
KC -1.5: 36.4%
Pitcher Adj: DET 1.084 / KC 0.705
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.007 / KC 1.319
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 1.6 - KC 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.6 - KC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 34.9% - KC 65.1% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +186 / KC -186
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML +120 +115 +1.1%
KC ML -142 -115 -5.2%
DET +1.5 -176 -175 -0.1%
KC -1.5 +146 +175 -4.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emerson Hancock Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 4.44 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 7.11 K/9: 8.67
BB/9: 2.74 BB/9: 3.88
FIP: 4.61 FIP: 4.51
IP: 41.7 IP: 39.7
xERA: 5.51 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.358 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA CWS Lg Avg
Record 18-20 17-20
R/Game 4.03 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 3.92 4.62 4.48
OPS 0.696 0.702 0.714
wOBA 0.305 0.303 0.308
ERA 3.63 4.23 4.17
FIP 3.47 4.23 4.00
WHIP 1.23 1.37 1.33
K/9 8.43 8.08 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.455 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.14 4.49 4.16
BP FIP 3.05 4.35 3.94
BP WHIP 1.32 1.47
BP K/9 9.05 8.17
BP Quality* 39.1 49.7 45.5
BP IP 120.3 166.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jose A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9789 (Temp: 0.9834 | Wind: 0.9954)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.2 - CWS 4.4
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.2 - CWS 4.3
Win Probability: SEA 48.3% - CWS 51.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +107 / CWS -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 46.6%
Under 8.0: 42.6%
SEA -1.5: 32.4%
CWS +1.5: 67.6%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 1.171 / CWS 1.089
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.859 / CWS 1.092
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - CWS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.4 - CWS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: SEA 44.6% - CWS 55.4% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +124 / CWS -124
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -142 +107 -10.3%
CWS ML +120 -107 +6.2%
SEA -1.5 +126 +209 -11.9%
CWS +1.5 -152 -209 +7.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-152]
Model: 67.6% | Market: 60.3% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -209 | Kelly: 4.59%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00242
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Fried Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 2.75 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 8.4 K/9: 12.28
BB/9: 2.4 BB/9: 4.09
FIP: 2.81 FIP: 3.27
IP: 52.7 IP: 38.0
xERA: 3.38 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.287 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY MIL Lg Avg
Record 26-12 19-16
R/Game 5.50 5.17 4.48
RA/Game 3.37 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.794 0.696 0.714
wOBA 0.337 0.301 0.308
ERA 3.04 3.60 4.17
FIP 3.35 3.38 4.00
WHIP 1.16 1.26 1.33
K/9 8.82 9.48 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.710 0.631 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 3.67 4.16
BP FIP 3.44 3.36 3.94
BP WHIP 1.26 1.37
BP K/9 8.63 8.96
BP Quality* 43.6 41.3 45.5
BP IP 128.3 144.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendan Beck (52 pitches yesterday)
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9610 (Temp: 0.9882 | Wind: 0.9724)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.5 - MIL 4.1
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.5 - MIL 4.1
Win Probability: NYY 53.9% - MIL 46.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -117 / MIL +117
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.0: 57.0%
Under 7.0: 31.9%
NYY -1.5: 37.4%
MIL +1.5: 62.6%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.718 / MIL 0.843
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.958 / MIL 0.908
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.4 - MIL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.4 - MIL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: NYY 58.1% - MIL 41.9% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -139 / MIL +139
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -134 -117 -3.3%
MIL ML +114 +117 -0.7%
NYY -1.5 +128 +167 -6.4%
MIL +1.5 -154 -167 +1.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +4.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -20.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ben Brown Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 5.92 ERA: 5.56
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 10.24 K/9: 7.78
BB/9: 2.71 BB/9: 3.21
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 4.52
IP: 25.7 IP: 28.7
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 5.73
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.364
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Ben Brown)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC TEX Lg Avg
Record 26-12 17-20
R/Game 5.47 3.76 4.48
RA/Game 4.16 3.92 4.48
OPS 0.782 0.689 0.714
wOBA 0.336 0.300 0.308
ERA 3.83 3.85 4.17
FIP 4.06 3.92 4.00
WHIP 1.20 1.24 1.33
K/9 8.42 8.90 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.623 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.90 2.98 4.16
BP FIP 4.23 3.85 3.94
BP WHIP 1.24 1.23
BP K/9 8.20 7.60
BP Quality* 52.5 44.9 45.5
BP IP 138.3 126.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Trent Thornton (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Palencia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gavin Hollowell (49 pitches yesterday)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jalen Beeks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9757 (Temp: 1.0052 | Wind: 0.9706)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.8 - TEX 4.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.8 - TEX 4.5
Win Probability: CHC 61.0% - TEX 39.0%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -156 / TEX +156
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.5: 62.6%
Under 8.5: 37.4%
CHC -1.5: 46.7%
TEX +1.5: 53.3%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.119 / TEX 1.087
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.154 / TEX 0.987
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.4 - TEX 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.4 - TEX 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CHC 63.2% - TEX 36.8% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -172 / TEX +172
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -136 -156 +3.3%
TEX ML +116 +156 -7.3%
CHC -1.5 +122 +114 +1.7%
TEX +1.5 -146 -114 -6.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nolan McLean Home: Ryne Nelson
ERA: 2.24 ERA: 4.03
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 10.89 K/9: 7.78
BB/9: 2.9 BB/9: 2.67
FIP: 2.65 FIP: 3.99
IP: 39.3 IP: 31.3
xERA: 3.53 xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ARI Lg Avg
Record 14-23 17-19
R/Game 3.62 4.47 4.48
RA/Game 4.38 5.17 4.48
OPS 0.644 0.704 0.714
wOBA 0.280 0.302 0.308
ERA 4.01 4.78 4.17
FIP 3.44 4.44 4.00
WHIP 1.28 1.37 1.33
K/9 9.52 7.57 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.414 0.434 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.04 4.56 4.16
BP FIP 3.48 4.08 3.94
BP WHIP 1.31 1.18
BP K/9 9.64 7.84
BP Quality* 42.2 47.6 45.5
BP IP 149.3 134.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0349 (Temp: 1.0333 | Wind: 1.0015)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.7 - ARI 3.7
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.7 - ARI 3.8
Win Probability: NYM 48.8% - ARI 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +105 / ARI -105
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.5: 34.1%
Under 8.5: 65.9%
NYM -1.5: 31.2%
ARI +1.5: 68.8%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.685 / ARI 0.954
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.927 / ARI 1.046
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.0 - ARI 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - ARI 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYM 53.7% - ARI 46.3% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -116 / ARI +116
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -136 +105 -8.8%
ARI ML +116 -105 +4.9%
NYM -1.5 +128 +220 -12.6%
ARI +1.5 -154 -220 +8.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -18.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +13.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[HIGH CONVICTION] Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (Run Line) [-154]
Model: 68.8% | Market: 60.6% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -220 | Kelly: 5.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00243
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.5%
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Griffin Canning
ERA: 4.04 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 5.47 K/9: 8.37
BB/9: 1.87 BB/9: 4.17
FIP: 4.14 FIP: 4.02
IP: 39.3 IP: 5.0
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 4.7
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL SD Lg Avg
Record 22-15 22-15
R/Game 4.76 4.41 4.48
RA/Game 4.76 4.24 4.48
OPS 0.722 0.685 0.714
wOBA 0.309 0.295 0.308
ERA 4.45 4.15 4.17
FIP 4.33 3.62 4.00
WHIP 1.41 1.26 1.33
K/9 6.95 8.78 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.77 3.74 4.16
BP FIP 4.07 3.15 3.94
BP WHIP 1.47 1.21
BP K/9 7.73 9.28
BP Quality* 49.5 40.6 45.5
BP IP 139.7 149.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9966 (Temp: 0.9904 | Wind: 1.0062)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.2 - SD 4.5
Simulated Avg: STL 4.2 - SD 4.5
Win Probability: STL 46.2% - SD 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: STL +116 / SD -116
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.4%
Under 8.0: 41.2%
STL +1.5: 62.7%
SD -1.5: 37.3%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.031 / SD 0.974
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.088 / SD 0.892
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.4 - SD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.4 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: STL 50.1% - SD 49.9% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -100 / SD +100
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +124 +116 +1.6%
SD ML -146 -116 -5.5%
STL +1.5 -176 -168 -1.1%
SD -1.5 +146 +168 -3.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chris Sale Home: Emmet Sheehan
ERA: 2.49 ERA: 3.23
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 11.56 K/9: 10.84
BB/9: 2.35 BB/9: 2.68
FIP: 2.54 FIP: 3.04
IP: 42.0 IP: 31.0
xERA: 2.87 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.265 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
Record 26-12 23-14
R/Game 5.61 5.30 4.48
RA/Game 3.53 3.22 4.48
OPS 0.792 0.798 0.714
wOBA 0.337 0.340 0.308
ERA 3.22 3.16 4.17
FIP 3.77 3.42 4.00
WHIP 1.18 1.09 1.33
K/9 8.87 9.06 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.700 0.714 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.22 3.50 4.16
BP FIP 3.17 2.94 3.94
BP WHIP 1.13 1.13
BP K/9 9.47 9.64
BP Quality* 36.7 36.6 45.5
BP IP 134.0 113.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9821 (Temp: 0.9867 | Wind: 0.9954)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.0 - LAD 3.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.0 - LAD 3.6
Win Probability: ATL 54.0% - LAD 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -118 / LAD +118
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.0: 36.5%
Under 8.0: 52.7%
ATL +1.5: 71.2%
LAD -1.5: 28.8%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.634 / LAD 0.737
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.807 / LAD 0.804
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.2 - LAD 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.2 - LAD 1.8
F5 Win Prob: ATL 57.2% - LAD 42.8% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -133 / LAD +133
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +104 -118 +5.0%
LAD ML -122 +118 -9.0%
ATL +1.5 -210 -247 +3.5%
LAD -1.5 +172 +247 -8.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -15.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +0.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | May 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Carmen Mlodzinski Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT SF Lg Avg
Record 21-17 14-23
R/Game 4.87 3.11 4.48
RA/Game 4.21 4.24 4.48
OPS 0.719 0.637 0.714
wOBA 0.313 0.275 0.308
ERA 3.70 3.96 4.17
FIP 3.42 4.01 4.00
WHIP 1.22 1.30 1.33
K/9 9.07 8.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.566 0.361 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.94 3.36 4.16
BP FIP 3.68 4.02 3.94
BP WHIP 1.31 1.33
BP K/9 9.20 8.13
BP Quality* 46.2 44.8 45.5
BP IP 150.7 120.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Joel Peguero (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (57°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9620 (Temp: 0.9819 | Wind: 0.9798)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.3 - SF 2.7
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.3 - SF 2.7
Win Probability: PIT 68.0% - SF 32.0%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -213 / SF +213
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 7.5: 40.3%
Under 7.5: 59.7%
PIT +1.5: 83.7%
SF -1.5: 16.3%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.857 / SF 1.000
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.015 / SF 0.985
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.5 - SF 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.5 - SF 1.4
F5 Win Prob: PIT 70.9% - SF 29.1% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -243 / SF +243
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -102 -213 +17.5%
SF ML -116 +213 -21.7%
PIT +1.5 -200 -514 +17.0%
SF -1.5 +164 +514 -21.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -12.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +7.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.85%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00244
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -102 | Edge: 17.5%
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -200 | Edge: 17.0%