2026-05-09
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-09
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jack Kochanowicz Home: Trey Yesavage
ERA: 6.06 ERA: 0.96
WHIP: 1.64 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 5.98 K/9: 8.68
BB/9: 4.67 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 5.42 FIP: 2.13
IP: 41.3 IP: 9.3
xERA: 5.88 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.368 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Trey Yesavage)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA TOR Lg Avg
Record 15-24 17-21
R/Game 4.36 3.92 4.47
RA/Game 4.77 4.45 4.46
OPS 0.707 0.683 0.711
wOBA 0.307 0.295 0.308
ERA 4.42 4.11 4.15
FIP 4.02 3.58 3.98
WHIP 1.42 1.29 1.32
K/9 9.02 9.25 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.14 4.15 4.14
BP FIP 4.36 3.20 3.93
BP WHIP 1.48 1.32
BP K/9 9.24 10.17
BP Quality* 53.2 42.8 45.4
BP IP 147.0 154.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9437 (Temp: 0.9849 | Wind: 0.9582)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.5 - TOR 4.9
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.5 - TOR 4.9
Win Probability: LAA 36.2% - TOR 63.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +176 / TOR -176
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 45.0%
Under 8.5: 55.0%
LAA +1.5: 53.4%
TOR -1.5: 46.6%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 1.383 / TOR 0.839
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.172 / TOR 0.943
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.9 - TOR 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.9 - TOR 2.9
F5 Win Prob: LAA 33.9% - TOR 66.1% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +195 / TOR -195
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +152 +176 -3.4%
TOR ML -180 -176 -0.5%
LAA +1.5 -146 -114 -6.0%
TOR -1.5 +122 +114 +1.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Aaron Civale Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 4.47 ERA: 4.89
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.53 K/9: 9.11
BB/9: 2.82 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 4.28 FIP: 4.13
IP: 36.7 IP: 39.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH BAL Lg Avg
Record 20-18 17-22
R/Game 4.45 4.54 4.47
RA/Game 4.68 5.51 4.46
OPS 0.729 0.704 0.711
wOBA 0.312 0.307 0.308
ERA 4.53 4.81 4.15
FIP 4.67 4.30 3.98
WHIP 1.44 1.47 1.32
K/9 7.95 8.42 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.412 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 4.63 4.14
BP FIP 4.37 4.10 3.93
BP WHIP 1.48 1.35
BP K/9 8.27 9.02
BP Quality* 55.2 49.1 45.4
BP IP 143.7 147.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Perkins (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trey Gibson (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 24%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9737 (Temp: 1.0048 | Wind: 0.9690)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.5 - BAL 5.1
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.5 - BAL 5.1
Win Probability: ATH 44.5% - BAL 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +125 / BAL -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
ATH -1.5: 30.2%
ATH +1.5: 59.9%
BAL -1.5: 40.1%
BAL +1.5: 69.8%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.028 / BAL 1.020
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.216 / BAL 1.081
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.5 - BAL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.5 - BAL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATH 47.9% - BAL 52.1% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +109 / BAL -109
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Spencer Arrighetti Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 4.96 ERA: 4.1
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.11 K/9: 13.16
BB/9: 5.13 BB/9: 3.23
FIP: 5.03 FIP: 2.77
IP: 23.0 IP: 41.0
xERA: 5.44 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.356 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU CIN Lg Avg
Record 16-23 20-19
R/Game 5.00 4.00 4.47
RA/Game 5.69 5.03 4.46
OPS 0.779 0.686 0.711
wOBA 0.331 0.298 0.308
ERA 5.67 4.73 4.15
FIP 4.84 4.71 3.98
WHIP 1.61 1.51 1.32
K/9 9.23 7.67 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.397 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.21 4.64 4.14
BP FIP 5.51 4.82 3.93
BP WHIP 1.66 1.61
BP K/9 8.91 8.80
BP Quality* 62.0 56.5 45.4
BP IP 166.7 151.3
Bullpen Edge: CIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Stephenson
Tyler Stephenson C OPS: 0.737 (299 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9824 (Temp: 1.0039 | Wind: 0.9786)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 5.1 - CIN 5.6
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.1 - CIN 5.6
Win Probability: HOU 45.5% - CIN 54.5%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +120 / CIN -120
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 8.5: 65.5%
Under 8.5: 34.5%
HOU +1.5: 60.0%
CIN -1.5: 40.0%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.298 / CIN 0.807
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.366 / CIN 1.244
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.3 - CIN 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.4 - CIN 3.0
F5 Win Prob: HOU 40.2% - CIN 59.8% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +149 / CIN -149
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +136 +120 +3.1%
CIN ML -162 -120 -7.3%
HOU +1.5 -152 -150 -0.3%
CIN -1.5 +126 +150 -4.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +13.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -17.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00250
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 3.9 ERA: 2.04
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 0.74
K/9: 6.24 K/9: 11.72
BB/9: 2.25 BB/9: 3.06
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 2.25
IP: 42.0 IP: 17.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.7
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
Record 25-13 17-22
R/Game 4.39 3.97 4.47
RA/Game 3.95 4.21 4.46
OPS 0.700 0.667 0.711
wOBA 0.302 0.294 0.308
ERA 3.51 4.00 4.15
FIP 3.96 4.14 3.98
WHIP 1.17 1.30 1.32
K/9 7.75 8.18 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.549 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.02 3.42 4.14
BP FIP 4.33 3.96 3.93
BP WHIP 1.28 1.24
BP K/9 7.86 8.58
BP Quality* 50.8 45.1 45.4
BP IP 150.0 150.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Englert (46 pitches yesterday)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Samaniego (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 29 mph)
Precip Chance: 47%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), crosswind (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9843 (Temp: 0.9905 | Wind: 0.9938)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.9 - BOS 4.3
Simulated Avg: TB 3.9 - BOS 4.3
Win Probability: TB 45.2% - BOS 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: TB +121 / BOS -121
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 42.4%
Under 8.0: 46.6%
TB +1.5: 62.5%
BOS -1.5: 37.5%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.964 / BOS 0.775
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.119 / BOS 0.993
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.9 - BOS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.9 - BOS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 45.0% - BOS 55.0% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +122 / BOS -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +126 +121 +0.9%
BOS ML -148 -121 -4.8%
TB +1.5 -178 -166 -1.6%
BOS -1.5 +146 +166 -3.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Littell Home: Janson Junk
ERA: 4.3 ERA: 3.9
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 6.05 K/9: 6.31
BB/9: 1.8 BB/9: 1.22
FIP: 5.25 FIP: 3.07
IP: 32.3 IP: 38.3
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Janson Junk)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
Record 19-20 17-22
R/Game 5.33 4.18 4.47
RA/Game 5.56 4.36 4.46
OPS 0.719 0.696 0.711
wOBA 0.309 0.305 0.308
ERA 4.73 4.03 4.15
FIP 4.78 3.69 3.98
WHIP 1.42 1.26 1.32
K/9 7.57 8.54 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 3.32 4.14
BP FIP 4.83 3.31 3.93
BP WHIP 1.42 1.20
BP K/9 6.83 9.56
BP Quality* 54.9 38.7 45.4
BP IP 179.3 138.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: PJ Poulin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Lord (31 pitches yesterday)
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9821 (Temp: 1.0207 | Wind: 0.9622)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.2 - MIA 4.5
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.2 - MIA 4.5
Win Probability: WSH 46.6% - MIA 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +115 / MIA -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.4%
Under 8.5: 51.6%
WSH +1.5: 63.1%
MIA -1.5: 36.9%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.133 / MIA 0.906
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.209 / MIA 0.852
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.4 - MIA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.4 - MIA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: WSH 50.3% - MIA 49.7% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -101 / MIA +101
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +132 +115 +3.5%
MIA ML -156 -115 -7.5%
WSH +1.5 -160 -171 +1.6%
MIA -1.5 +132 +171 -6.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Freeland Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 4.99 ERA: 5.82
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.11 K/9: 9.33
BB/9: 2.21 BB/9: 2.76
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 4.35
IP: 25.0 IP: 37.3
xERA: 4.96 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL PHI Lg Avg
Record 16-23 17-22
R/Game 4.41 3.97 4.47
RA/Game 5.00 5.10 4.46
OPS 0.731 0.684 0.711
wOBA 0.316 0.297 0.308
ERA 4.70 4.73 4.15
FIP 4.51 3.52 3.98
WHIP 1.41 1.45 1.32
K/9 7.80 9.64 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.388 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 4.13 4.14
BP FIP 4.03 3.30 3.93
BP WHIP 1.35 1.39
BP K/9 9.02 9.28
BP Quality* 49.6 50.0 45.4
BP IP 178.7 150.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Keller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 52%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), crosswind (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9890 (Temp: 0.9962 | Wind: 0.9928)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.9 - PHI 4.7
Simulated Avg: COL 4.9 - PHI 4.7
Win Probability: COL 51.6% - PHI 48.4%
Fair Moneyline: COL -107 / PHI +107
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.4%
Under 8.5: 43.6%
COL +1.5: 66.9%
PHI -1.5: 33.1%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.160 / PHI 1.118
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.093 / PHI 1.101
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.8 - PHI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.8 - PHI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 52.2% - PHI 47.8% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: COL -109 / PHI +109
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +152 -107 +12.0%
PHI ML -180 +107 -15.9%
COL +1.5 -142 -202 +8.2%
PHI -1.5 +118 +202 -12.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [-142]
Model: 66.9% | Market: 58.7% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -202 | Kelly: 4.95%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00251
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +152 | Edge: 12.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00252
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joe Ryan Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 4.32
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 10.0 K/9: 8.05
BB/9: 2.11 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 3.34 FIP: 4.22
IP: 38.7 IP: 39.3
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
Record 16-23 21-19
R/Game 4.79 4.20 4.47
RA/Game 5.15 4.25 4.46
OPS 0.713 0.697 0.711
wOBA 0.312 0.304 0.308
ERA 4.76 4.01 4.15
FIP 4.09 4.07 3.98
WHIP 1.39 1.29 1.32
K/9 7.78 9.25 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.81 4.22 4.14
BP FIP 4.40 3.99 3.93
BP WHIP 1.59 1.31
BP K/9 7.33 9.71
BP Quality* 58.4 54.2 45.4
BP IP 136.3 134.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Cade Smith (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 75%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (14 mph) | Rain likely (75%)
Weather Factor: 0.9592 (Temp: 0.9932 | Wind: 0.9658)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.7 - CLE 4.0
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.7 - CLE 4.0
Win Probability: MIN 56.4% - CLE 43.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -130 / CLE +130
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 47.8%
Under 8.0: 41.5%
MIN +1.5: 72.2%
CLE -1.5: 27.8%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 0.821 / CLE 0.974
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.286 / CLE 1.194
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.4 - CLE 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.4 - CLE 1.8
F5 Win Prob: MIN 61.0% - CLE 39.0% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -157 / CLE +157
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -102 -130 +5.9%
CLE ML -116 +130 -10.1%
MIN +1.5 -188 -260 +7.0%
CLE -1.5 +155 +260 -11.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Edward Cabrera Home: Jack Leiter
ERA: 3.48 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 9.46 K/9: 9.06
BB/9: 3.12 BB/9: 3.8
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 4.07
IP: 41.3 IP: 38.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Edward Cabrera)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC TEX Lg Avg
Record 27-12 17-21
R/Game 5.51 3.68 4.47
RA/Game 4.08 4.00 4.46
OPS 0.783 0.681 0.711
wOBA 0.336 0.297 0.308
ERA 3.75 3.85 4.15
FIP 4.05 3.95 3.98
WHIP 1.19 1.25 1.32
K/9 8.31 8.82 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.635 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.83 2.93 4.14
BP FIP 4.27 3.84 3.93
BP WHIP 1.23 1.24
BP K/9 7.97 7.50
BP Quality* 48.0 43.3 45.4
BP IP 143.3 132.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Javier Assad (41 pitches yesterday)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cal Quantrill (70 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0099 (Temp: 1.0237 | Wind: 0.9865)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.7 - TEX 3.9
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.7 - TEX 3.9
Win Probability: CHC 66.5% - TEX 33.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -198 / TEX +198
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.7%
Under 8.5: 43.3%
CHC -1.5: 51.6%
TEX +1.5: 48.4%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 0.901 / TEX 1.019
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.057 / TEX 0.954
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.3 - TEX 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.3 - TEX 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 69.7% - TEX 30.3% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -230 / TEX +230
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -138 -198 +8.5%
TEX ML +118 +198 -12.4%
CHC -1.5 +126 -107 +7.4%
TEX +1.5 -152 +107 -11.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago Cubs -1.5 (Run Line) [+126]
Model: 51.6% | Market: 44.2% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -107 | Kelly: 3.30%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00253
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Burch Smith Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 1.59 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 12.71 K/9: 6.72
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 1.33 FIP: 3.63
IP: 11.3 IP: 44.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: DET (Burch Smith)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET KC Lg Avg
Record 18-21 18-21
R/Game 4.31 4.13 4.47
RA/Game 4.18 4.51 4.46
OPS 0.719 0.710 0.711
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.308
ERA 3.89 4.31 4.15
FIP 3.60 4.28 3.98
WHIP 1.32 1.37 1.32
K/9 8.76 8.55 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.88 4.77 4.14
BP FIP 3.87 4.65 3.93
BP WHIP 1.43 1.46
BP K/9 8.92 8.45
BP Quality* 47.9 59.4 45.4
BP IP 141.3 132.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brant Hurter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Luinder Avila (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eric Cerantola (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nick Mears (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0232 (Temp: 1.0087 | Wind: 1.0143)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.6 - KC 3.6
Simulated Avg: DET 4.6 - KC 3.6
Win Probability: DET 59.9% - KC 40.1%
Fair Moneyline: DET -150 / KC +150
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 9.5: 33.4%
Under 9.5: 66.6%
DET +1.5: 75.8%
KC -1.5: 24.1%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.716 / KC 0.924
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.055 / KC 1.308
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.2 - KC 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.2 - KC 1.7
F5 Win Prob: DET 60.2% - KC 39.8% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -151 / KC +151
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML +118 -150 +14.1%
KC ML -138 +150 -17.9%
DET +1.5 -176 -314 +12.1%
KC -1.5 +146 +314 -16.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -19.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +14.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Detroit Tigers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +118 | Edge: 14.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00254
[HMC] Under 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00255
[HMC] Detroit Tigers +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -176 | Edge: 12.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00256
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Luis Castillo Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 4.09 ERA: 5.7
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.67
K/9: 8.08 K/9: 6.0
BB/9: 2.51 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 3.77 FIP: 5.87
IP: 34.3 IP: 30.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Luis Castillo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA CWS Lg Avg
Record 19-20 17-21
R/Game 4.23 4.29 4.47
RA/Game 4.03 4.82 4.46
OPS 0.707 0.707 0.711
wOBA 0.309 0.305 0.308
ERA 3.75 4.44 4.15
FIP 3.52 4.34 3.98
WHIP 1.23 1.38 1.32
K/9 8.40 8.05 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.28 4.68 4.14
BP FIP 3.11 4.45 3.93
BP WHIP 1.33 1.47
BP K/9 9.05 8.11
BP Quality* 39.9 50.8 45.4
BP IP 123.3 171.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9565 (Temp: 0.9923 | Wind: 0.9639)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 5.1 - CWS 3.9
Simulated Avg: SEA 5.1 - CWS 3.8
Win Probability: SEA 61.9% - CWS 38.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -162 / CWS +162
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.5: 40.2%
Under 9.5: 59.8%
SEA -1.5: 46.1%
CWS +1.5: 53.9%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.950 / CWS 1.398
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.879 / CWS 1.119
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 3.1 - CWS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 3.1 - CWS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 64.2% - CWS 35.8% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -179 / CWS +179
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -134 -162 +4.6%
CWS ML +114 +162 -8.6%
SEA -1.5 +118 +117 +0.2%
CWS +1.5 -142 -117 -4.8%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.90%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00257
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Kyle Harrison
ERA: 2.63 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 10.3 K/9: 9.77
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 3.39
FIP: 3.09 FIP: 3.42
IP: 47.3 IP: 29.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY MIL Lg Avg
Record 26-13 20-16
R/Game 5.36 5.19 4.47
RA/Game 3.44 3.75 4.46
OPS 0.782 0.695 0.711
wOBA 0.333 0.301 0.308
ERA 3.12 3.49 4.15
FIP 3.33 3.31 3.98
WHIP 1.17 1.24 1.32
K/9 8.80 9.61 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.693 0.645 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.18 3.60 4.14
BP FIP 3.41 3.32 3.93
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 8.63 8.96
BP Quality* 39.0 42.2 45.4
BP IP 130.3 147.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Shane Drohan (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0262 (Temp: 0.9868 | Wind: 1.0400)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.8 - MIL 4.4
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.7 - MIL 4.5
Win Probability: NYY 52.3% - MIL 47.7%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -110 / MIL +110
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 7.5: 62.7%
Under 7.5: 37.3%
NYY -1.5: 37.0%
MIL +1.5: 63.0%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.802 / MIL 0.862
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.859 / MIL 0.930
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.6 - MIL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.6 - MIL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: NYY 53.2% - MIL 46.8% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -114 / MIL +114
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -142 -110 -6.4%
MIL ML +120 +110 +2.2%
NYY -1.5 +125 +170 -7.5%
MIL +1.5 -150 -170 +3.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +10.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00258
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Clay Holmes Home: Merrill Kelly
ERA: 3.16 ERA: 4.25
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 6.92 K/9: 7.99
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 4.19
IP: 42.7 IP: 19.0
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Clay Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ARI Lg Avg
Record 15-23 17-20
R/Game 3.61 4.38 4.47
RA/Game 4.29 5.11 4.46
OPS 0.639 0.698 0.711
wOBA 0.278 0.300 0.308
ERA 3.92 4.69 4.15
FIP 3.44 4.39 3.98
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.32
K/9 9.50 7.61 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.421 0.430 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.93 4.51 4.14
BP FIP 3.46 4.01 3.93
BP WHIP 1.30 1.18
BP K/9 9.63 7.85
BP Quality* 47.7 50.1 45.4
BP IP 153.3 137.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.9 - ARI 4.4
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.9 - ARI 4.4
Win Probability: NYM 44.7% - ARI 55.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +124 / ARI -124
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 9.0: 33.8%
Under 9.0: 56.2%
NYM -1.5: 28.6%
ARI +1.5: 71.4%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.920 / ARI 1.088
Bullpen Adj: NYM 1.051 / ARI 1.104
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.2 - ARI 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.2 - ARI 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYM 47.8% - ARI 52.2% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +109 / ARI -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -116 +124 -9.0%
ARI ML -102 -124 +4.8%
NYM -1.5 +134 +250 -14.1%
ARI +1.5 -162 -250 +9.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -18.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +3.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (Run Line) [-162]
Model: 71.4% | Market: 61.8% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -250 | Kelly: 6.26%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00259
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dustin May Home: Randy Vásquez
ERA: 5.0 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.92 K/9: 5.85
BB/9: 3.49 BB/9: 3.39
FIP: 4.36 FIP: 4.44
IP: 36.7 IP: 39.3
xERA: 5.2 xERA: 5.37
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL SD Lg Avg
Record 23-15 22-16
R/Game 4.79 4.29 4.47
RA/Game 4.63 4.29 4.46
OPS 0.720 0.672 0.711
wOBA 0.309 0.291 0.308
ERA 4.33 4.19 4.15
FIP 4.26 3.57 3.98
WHIP 1.38 1.27 1.32
K/9 7.03 8.79 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.67 3.62 4.14
BP FIP 4.03 3.11 3.93
BP WHIP 1.44 1.21
BP K/9 7.63 9.23
BP Quality* 48.7 41.5 45.4
BP IP 142.7 154.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9852 (Temp: 0.9954 | Wind: 0.9897)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.6 - SD 4.7
Simulated Avg: STL 4.6 - SD 4.7
Win Probability: STL 48.9% - SD 51.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL +104 / SD -104
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 7.5: 63.6%
Under 7.5: 36.4%
STL +1.5: 64.7%
SD -1.5: 35.4%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.160 / SD 1.104
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.073 / SD 0.914
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.8 - SD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.8 - SD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: STL 51.8% - SD 48.2% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -107 / SD +107
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +122 +104 +3.9%
SD ML -144 -104 -8.0%
STL +1.5 -184 -183 -0.1%
SD -1.5 +152 +183 -4.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +11.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00260
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 2.77 ERA: 3.68
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 9.28 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 3.08 BB/9: 3.77
FIP: 2.7 FIP: 3.53
IP: 41.7 IP: 39.7
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT SF Lg Avg
Record 21-18 15-23
R/Game 4.79 3.16 4.47
RA/Game 4.23 4.18 4.46
OPS 0.716 0.642 0.711
wOBA 0.313 0.277 0.308
ERA 3.74 3.91 4.15
FIP 3.42 4.04 3.98
WHIP 1.23 1.30 1.32
K/9 8.99 8.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.374 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 3.35 4.14
BP FIP 3.62 4.05 3.93
BP WHIP 1.33 1.33
BP K/9 9.31 8.01
BP Quality* 45.0 48.0 45.4
BP IP 152.7 123.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), strong crosswind (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9587 (Temp: 0.9838 | Wind: 0.9745)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.2 - SF 2.4
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.2 - SF 2.5
Win Probability: PIT 69.9% - SF 30.1%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -233 / SF +233
Avg Total Runs: 6.6
Over 7.0: 35.2%
Under 7.0: 53.0%
PIT -1.5: 50.9%
SF +1.5: 49.1%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.716 / SF 0.920
Bullpen Adj: PIT 0.991 / SF 1.057
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.2 - SF 1.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.2 - SF 1.2
F5 Win Prob: PIT 72.2% - SF 27.8% (Tie: 19.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -260 / SF +260
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -112 -233 +17.1%
SF ML -104 +233 -20.9%
PIT -1.5 +158 -104 +12.1%
SF +1.5 -192 +104 -16.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -17.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A +0.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -112 | Edge: 17.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00261
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +158 | Edge: 12.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00262
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Spencer Strider Home: Blake Snell
ERA: 4.55 ERA: 2.35
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 9.6 K/9: 10.57
BB/9: 3.94 BB/9: 3.82
FIP: 4.41 FIP: 2.66
IP: 3.3 IP: 61.3
xERA: 4.93 xERA: 3.28
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
Record 26-13 24-14
R/Game 5.49 5.24 4.47
RA/Game 3.51 3.16 4.46
OPS 0.787 0.792 0.711
wOBA 0.336 0.337 0.308
ERA 3.20 3.10 4.15
FIP 3.75 3.37 3.98
WHIP 1.17 1.10 1.32
K/9 8.84 9.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.693 0.716 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.20 3.38 4.14
BP FIP 3.17 2.93 3.93
BP WHIP 1.13 1.13
BP K/9 9.40 9.59
BP Quality* 36.7 40.7 45.4
BP IP 135.0 117.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9856 (Temp: 0.9909 | Wind: 0.9946)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 3.9 - LAD 4.2
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.9 - LAD 4.2
Win Probability: ATL 46.7% - LAD 53.3%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +114 / LAD -114
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 42.1%
Under 8.5: 57.9%
ATL +1.5: 64.0%
LAD -1.5: 36.0%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.836 / LAD 0.675
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.808 / LAD 0.896
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 1.9 - LAD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.9 - LAD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATL 42.8% - LAD 57.2% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +134 / LAD -134
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +146 +114 +6.0%
LAD ML -174 -114 -10.2%
ATL +1.5 -137 -178 +6.2%
LAD -1.5 +114 +178 -10.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -10.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================