2026-05-10
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-10
Games: 5 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | May 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Tyler Mahle
ERA: 4.17 ERA: 2.74
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 8.76 K/9: 7.18
BB/9: 2.3 BB/9: 3.31
FIP: 2.96 FIP: 3.64
IP: 34.0 IP: 36.0
xERA: 3.66 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Bubba Chandler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT SF Lg Avg
Record 22-18 15-24
R/Game 5.00 3.15 4.38
RA/Game 4.20 4.41 4.38
OPS 0.728 0.641 0.711
wOBA 0.317 0.277 0.307
ERA 3.73 4.07 4.13
FIP 3.43 4.00 3.97
WHIP 1.22 1.33 1.32
K/9 8.94 8.18 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.579 0.351 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 3.85 4.15
BP FIP 3.66 4.02 3.92
BP WHIP 1.34 1.42
BP K/9 9.25 7.90
BP Quality* 48.5 50.2 45.3
BP IP 154.7 128.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Cam Sanders (B2B, 34 pitches)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Gregory Santos (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bryan Reynolds, Joey Bart, Jared Triolo
Bryan Reynolds LF OPS: 0.720 (587 AB)
Joey Bart C OPS: 0.695 (285 AB)
Jared Triolo SS OPS: 0.667 (331 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.7% of full strength
SF (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Christian Koss, Eric Haase
Christian Koss 2B OPS: 0.677 (174 AB)
Eric Haase C OPS: 0.646 (70 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9715 (Temp: 0.9908 | Wind: 0.9806)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.2 - SF 2.7
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.2 - SF 2.8
Win Probability: PIT 66.5% - SF 33.5%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -199 / SF +199
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 8.0: 29.7%
Under 8.0: 60.3%
PIT +1.5: 82.8%
SF -1.5: 17.2%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.849 / SF 0.878
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.071 / SF 1.108
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.1 - SF 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.1 - SF 1.4
F5 Win Prob: PIT 66.2% - SF 33.8% (Tie: 19.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -196 / SF +196
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +108 -199 +18.5%
SF ML -126 +199 -22.3%
PIT +1.5 -194 -481 +16.8%
SF -1.5 +160 +481 -21.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -22.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +7.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.14%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00273
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HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +108 | Edge: 18.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00268
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -194 | Edge: 16.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00269
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | May 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Huascar Brazobán Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 4.52
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 8.11 K/9: 7.99
BB/9: 3.82 BB/9: 3.66
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 4.49
IP: 17.7 IP: 39.7
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Huascar Brazobán)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ARI Lg Avg
Record 15-24 18-20
R/Game 3.54 4.32 4.38
RA/Game 4.23 5.00 4.38
OPS 0.633 0.695 0.711
wOBA 0.275 0.299 0.307
ERA 3.88 4.59 4.13
FIP 3.42 4.33 3.97
WHIP 1.26 1.32 1.32
K/9 9.49 7.62 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.419 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 4.45 4.15
BP FIP 3.47 3.97 3.92
BP WHIP 1.30 1.16
BP K/9 9.60 7.86
BP Quality* 44.6 48.1 45.3
BP IP 155.7 139.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Austin Warren (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty
Francisco Alvarez C OPS: 0.786 (246 AB)
Brett Baty RF OPS: 0.748 (393 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.9% of full strength
ARI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Gabriel Moreno C OPS: 0.786 (277 AB)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF OPS: 0.713 (500 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.6 - ARI 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.6 - ARI 4.0
Win Probability: NYM 45.2% - ARI 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +121 / ARI -121
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 35.8%
Under 8.5: 64.2%
NYM +1.5: 63.2%
ARI -1.5: 36.8%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.904 / ARI 1.091
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.985 / ARI 1.062
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.0 - ARI 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - ARI 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYM 48.2% - ARI 51.8% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +108 / ARI -108
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -102 +121 -5.3%
ARI ML -116 -121 +1.1%
NYM +1.5 -194 -172 -2.7%
ARI -1.5 +160 +172 -1.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -16.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +11.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00274
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Leahy Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 3.44 ERA: 5.07
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 7.95 K/9: 6.98
BB/9: 2.96 BB/9: 4.2
FIP: 3.37 FIP: 4.93
IP: 34.7 IP: 30.3
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL SD Lg Avg
Record 23-16 23-16
R/Game 4.72 4.28 4.38
RA/Game 4.62 4.23 4.38
OPS 0.716 0.670 0.711
wOBA 0.308 0.290 0.307
ERA 4.31 4.14 4.13
FIP 4.27 3.51 3.97
WHIP 1.37 1.26 1.32
K/9 7.13 8.87 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.67 3.59 4.15
BP FIP 4.07 3.07 3.92
BP WHIP 1.43 1.20
BP K/9 7.71 9.34
BP Quality* 48.8 41.1 45.3
BP IP 144.7 158.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: José Fermín, Yohel Pozo, Victor Scott II
José Fermín LF OPS: 0.794 (60 AB)
Yohel Pozo C OPS: 0.637 (160 AB)
Victor Scott II CF OPS: 0.601 (398 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.3% of full strength
SD (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ramón Laureano, Bryce Johnson, Nick Castellanos
Ramón Laureano LF OPS: 0.854 (441 AB)
Bryce Johnson RF OPS: 0.817 (76 AB)
Nick Castellanos RF OPS: 0.694 (547 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9786 (Temp: 0.9994 | Wind: 0.9792)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.6 - SD 3.7
Simulated Avg: STL 4.6 - SD 3.7
Win Probability: STL 59.6% - SD 40.5%
Fair Moneyline: STL -147 / SD +147
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 43.8%
Under 8.5: 56.2%
STL +1.5: 75.4%
SD -1.5: 24.6%
Pitcher Adj: STL 0.909 / SD 1.243
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.077 / SD 0.907
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.9 - SD 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.9 - SD 1.9
F5 Win Prob: STL 66.5% - SD 33.5% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -199 / SD +199
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +112 -147 +12.4%
SD ML -132 +147 -16.4%
STL +1.5 -194 -306 +9.4%
SD -1.5 +160 +306 -13.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (Run Line) [-194]
Model: 75.4% | Market: 66.0% | Edge: 9.4%
Fair ML: -306 | Kelly: 6.90%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00271
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HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] St. Louis Cardinals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +112 | Edge: 12.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00272
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryce Elder Home: Justin Wrobleski
ERA: 4.55 ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 9.33
BB/9: 2.94 BB/9: 2.33
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 2.81
IP: 49.0 IP: 36.0
xERA: 4.73 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Justin Wrobleski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
Record 27-13 24-15
R/Game 5.53 5.15 4.38
RA/Game 3.48 3.26 4.38
OPS 0.785 0.787 0.711
wOBA 0.335 0.335 0.307
ERA 3.17 3.17 4.13
FIP 3.75 3.33 3.97
WHIP 1.17 1.12 1.32
K/9 8.85 9.16 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.700 0.699 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.26 3.36 4.15
BP FIP 3.27 2.89 3.92
BP WHIP 1.14 1.14
BP K/9 9.26 9.56
BP Quality* 38.9 39.1 45.3
BP IP 138.0 123.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Reynaldo López (42 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Paul Gervase (50 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dominic Smith, Mike Yastrzemski
Dominic Smith 1B OPS: 0.750 (204 AB)
Mike Yastrzemski LF OPS: 0.736 (477 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.7% of full strength
LAD (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Will Smith, Teoscar Hernández, Miguel Rojas
Will Smith C OPS: 0.901 (362 AB)
Teoscar Hernández LF OPS: 0.738 (511 AB)
Miguel Rojas SS OPS: 0.715 (290 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9958 (Temp: 1.0073 | Wind: 0.9886)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.1 - LAD 4.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.1 - LAD 4.6
Win Probability: ATL 44.6% - LAD 55.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +124 / LAD -124
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.5: 38.7%
Under 9.5: 61.3%
ATL +1.5: 61.1%
LAD -1.5: 39.0%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.072 / LAD 0.796
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.859 / LAD 0.863
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.2 - LAD 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.2 - LAD 2.8
F5 Win Prob: ATL 41.3% - LAD 58.7% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +142 / LAD -142
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +116 +124 -1.7%
LAD ML -136 -124 -2.2%
ATL +1.5 -182 -157 -3.5%
LAD -1.5 +150 +157 -1.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -13.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +8.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.9%
Fair ML: -158 | Kelly: 4.67%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00275
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brenan Hanifee Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 3.0 ERA: 3.4
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 6.0 K/9: 7.51
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 3.12 FIP: 4.14
IP: 6.7 IP: 31.7
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: DET (Brenan Hanifee)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET KC Lg Avg
Record 18-22 19-21
R/Game 4.22 4.15 4.38
RA/Game 4.20 4.42 4.38
OPS 0.711 0.712 0.711
wOBA 0.311 0.308 0.307
ERA 3.93 4.23 4.13
FIP 3.65 4.21 3.97
WHIP 1.31 1.35 1.32
K/9 8.69 8.56 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 4.77 4.15
BP FIP 3.89 4.58 3.92
BP WHIP 1.39 1.46
BP K/9 8.76 8.53
BP Quality* 47.6 53.1 45.3
BP IP 149.0 134.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ty Madden (87 pitches yesterday)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nick Mears (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Starling Marte, Salvador Perez
Starling Marte RF OPS: 0.745 (293 AB)
Salvador Perez C OPS: 0.730 (597 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0238 (Temp: 0.9952 | Wind: 1.0287)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.4 - KC 4.0
Simulated Avg: DET 4.4 - KC 4.0
Win Probability: DET 54.1% - KC 45.9%
Fair Moneyline: DET -118 / KC +118
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 44.2%
Under 8.5: 55.8%
DET +1.5: 70.4%
KC -1.5: 29.6%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.907 / KC 0.952
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.051 / KC 1.172
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.2 - KC 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.2 - KC 2.0
F5 Win Prob: DET 53.4% - KC 46.6% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -114 / KC +114
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +104 -118 +5.1%
KC ML -122 +118 -9.0%
DET +1.5 -200 -238 +3.8%
KC -1.5 +164 +238 -8.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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