2026-05-11
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-11
Games: 6 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Joey Cantillo
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA CLE Lg Avg
Record 16-25 21-21
R/Game 4.32 4.12 4.43
RA/Game 4.90 4.21 4.43
OPS 0.710 0.689 0.709
wOBA 0.308 0.300 0.306
ERA 4.56 3.94 4.11
FIP 4.06 3.96 3.96
WHIP 1.43 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.87 9.36 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.442 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.38 3.98 4.11
BP FIP 4.54 3.84 3.92
BP WHIP 1.51 1.28
BP K/9 9.16 9.80
BP Quality* 53.5 46.4 45.1
BP IP 152.3 142.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 53°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (53°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0218 (Temp: 0.9774 | Wind: 1.0454)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.9 - CLE 4.5
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.9 - CLE 4.5
Win Probability: LAA 44.1% - CLE 55.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +127 / CLE -127
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.4%
Under 7.5: 44.6%
LAA +1.5: 60.9%
CLE -1.5: 39.1%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 1.000 / CLE 0.874
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.186 / CLE 1.029
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.1 - CLE 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.0 - CLE 2.3
F5 Win Prob: LAA 45.8% - CLE 54.2% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +118 / CLE -118
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +142 +127 +2.7%
CLE ML -168 -127 -6.8%
LAA +1.5 -156 -156 -0.0%
CLE -1.5 +130 +156 -4.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Weathers Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 3.8 ERA: 6.02
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 9.05 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 3.44
FIP: 4.3 FIP: 5.26
IP: 38.7 IP: 20.7
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Ryan Weathers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
Record 26-15 18-23
R/Game 5.24 4.41 4.43
RA/Game 3.46 5.41 4.43
OPS 0.775 0.702 0.709
wOBA 0.331 0.307 0.306
ERA 3.14 4.74 4.11
FIP 3.35 4.23 3.96
WHIP 1.16 1.46 1.31
K/9 8.85 8.49 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.681 0.408 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.25 4.39 4.11
BP FIP 3.50 3.95 3.92
BP WHIP 1.26 1.34
BP K/9 8.78 9.06
BP Quality* 44.1 47.5 45.1
BP IP 138.3 160.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chris Bassitt (94 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0214 (Temp: 0.9920 | Wind: 1.0297)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 6.3 - BAL 4.6
Simulated Avg: NYY 6.3 - BAL 4.6
Win Probability: NYY 64.1% - BAL 35.9%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -178 / BAL +178
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.0: 59.1%
Under 9.0: 32.0%
NYY -1.5: 50.4%
BAL +1.5: 49.6%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.987 / BAL 1.278
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.978 / BAL 1.053
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 3.8 - BAL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 3.8 - BAL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: NYY 66.7% - BAL 33.3% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -201 / BAL +201
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -172 -178 +0.8%
BAL ML +144 +178 -5.1%
NYY -1.5 -104 -102 -0.6%
BAL +1.5 -115 +102 -3.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +6.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | May 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 2.8 ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 7.91 K/9: 8.69
BB/9: 2.07 BB/9: 2.2
FIP: 3.71 FIP: 3.31
IP: 36.7 IP: 46.7
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
Record 26-13 18-22
R/Game 4.38 4.10 4.43
RA/Game 3.87 4.40 4.43
OPS 0.700 0.694 0.709
wOBA 0.302 0.299 0.306
ERA 3.44 4.08 4.11
FIP 3.90 3.61 3.96
WHIP 1.16 1.28 1.31
K/9 7.76 9.16 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.93 4.25 4.11
BP FIP 4.25 3.38 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.31
BP K/9 7.98 9.87
BP Quality* 45.6 45.4 45.1
BP IP 153.3 165.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eric Lauer (80 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 51°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (51°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0050 (Temp: 0.9743 | Wind: 1.0315)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.0 - TOR 3.8
Simulated Avg: TB 3.9 - TOR 3.8
Win Probability: TB 51.5% - TOR 48.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB -106 / TOR +106
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 48.2%
Under 7.5: 51.8%
TB +1.5: 69.5%
TOR -1.5: 30.5%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.828 / TOR 0.852
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.011 / TOR 1.007
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.1 - TOR 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.1 - TOR 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TB 53.3% - TOR 46.7% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -114 / TOR +114
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +110 -106 +3.9%
TOR ML -130 +106 -8.0%
TB +1.5 -210 -228 +1.7%
TOR -1.5 +172 +228 -6.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Soroka Home: Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 4.44 ERA: 2.28
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 9.68 K/9: 8.92
BB/9: 2.86 BB/9: 1.55
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 3.03
IP: 37.0 IP: 47.7
xERA: 3.53 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI TEX Lg Avg
Record 19-20 19-21
R/Game 4.33 3.73 4.43
RA/Game 4.90 3.80 4.43
OPS 0.691 0.686 0.709
wOBA 0.297 0.299 0.306
ERA 4.50 3.65 4.11
FIP 4.31 3.84 3.96
WHIP 1.31 1.23 1.31
K/9 7.53 8.88 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 2.80 4.11
BP FIP 3.98 3.77 3.92
BP WHIP 1.16 1.20
BP K/9 7.82 7.42
BP Quality* 46.6 39.3 45.1
BP IP 140.3 138.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0103 (Temp: 1.0042 | Wind: 1.0060)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 3.5 - TEX 3.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.5 - TEX 3.9
Win Probability: ARI 44.7% - TEX 55.3%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +124 / TEX -124
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 44.4%
Under 7.5: 55.6%
ARI +1.5: 63.5%
TEX -1.5: 36.5%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 0.919 / TEX 0.689
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.033 / TEX 0.871
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 1.8 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.8 - TEX 2.0
F5 Win Prob: ARI 44.0% - TEX 56.0% (Tie: 19.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +127 / TEX -127
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +110 +124 -2.9%
TEX ML -130 -124 -1.2%
ARI +1.5 -210 -174 -4.2%
TEX -1.5 +176 +174 +0.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: George Kirby Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 3.92 ERA: 2.42
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 9.1 K/9: 9.27
BB/9: 2.07 BB/9: 4.43
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 2.52
IP: 52.0 IP: 22.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
Record 19-22 16-25
R/Game 4.07 4.78 4.43
RA/Game 4.02 5.61 4.43
OPS 0.697 0.762 0.709
wOBA 0.305 0.325 0.306
ERA 3.78 5.57 4.11
FIP 3.56 4.80 3.96
WHIP 1.23 1.60 1.31
K/9 8.52 9.14 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.41 6.05 4.11
BP FIP 3.30 5.47 3.92
BP WHIP 1.35 1.63
BP K/9 8.98 8.90
BP Quality* 42.8 65.6 45.1
BP IP 129.3 174.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Simpson (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Logan VanWey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cody Bolton (50 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0183 (Temp: 0.9965 | Wind: 1.0219)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.8 - HOU 4.5
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.9 - HOU 4.5
Win Probability: SEA 53.0% - HOU 47.0%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -113 / HOU +113
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.4%
Under 8.5: 45.6%
SEA -1.5: 37.6%
HOU +1.5: 62.4%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.879 / HOU 1.049
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.949 / HOU 1.400
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - HOU 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.4 - HOU 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SEA 50.2% - HOU 49.8% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -101 / HOU +101
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -146 -113 -6.3%
HOU ML +124 +113 +2.3%
SEA -1.5 +112 +166 -9.5%
HOU +1.5 -134 -166 +5.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor McDonald Home: Roki Sasaki
ERA: 1.29 ERA: 4.72
WHIP: 0.29 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 10.29 K/9: 7.15
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 5.32
FIP: 2.67 FIP: 5.68
IP: 7.0 IP: 28.7
xERA: 3.21 xERA: 5.66
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.362
Pitcher Edge: SF (Trevor McDonald)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
Record 16-24 24-16
R/Game 3.25 5.08 4.43
RA/Game 4.45 3.35 4.43
OPS 0.649 0.778 0.709
wOBA 0.279 0.332 0.306
ERA 4.06 3.27 4.11
FIP 4.07 3.37 3.96
WHIP 1.33 1.12 1.31
K/9 8.14 9.10 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.360 0.681 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 3.35 4.11
BP FIP 4.11 2.89 3.92
BP WHIP 1.42 1.16
BP K/9 7.60 9.53
BP Quality* 53.4 36.2 45.1
BP IP 135.0 123.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Borucki (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Peguero (30 pitches yesterday)
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9838 (Temp: 0.9888 | Wind: 0.9949)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 2.7 - LAD 4.9
Simulated Avg: SF 2.7 - LAD 4.9
Win Probability: SF 26.4% - LAD 73.6%
Fair Moneyline: SF +279 / LAD -279
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 9.5: 26.8%
Under 9.5: 73.2%
SF +1.5: 44.1%
LAD -1.5: 55.9%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.853 / LAD 0.937
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.184 / LAD 0.803
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.6 - LAD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.6 - LAD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 36.3% - LAD 63.7% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +176 / LAD -176
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +154 +279 -13.0%
LAD ML -184 -279 +8.8%
SF +1.5 -128 +127 -12.1%
LAD -1.5 +106 -127 +7.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -25.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +20.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (Run Line) [+106]
Model: 55.9% | Market: 48.5% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -127 | Kelly: 3.58%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00276
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 20.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00277