2026-05-12
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-12
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walbert Ureña Home: Slade Cecconi
ERA: 3.22 ERA: 4.72
WHIP: 1.57 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 8.87 K/9: 7.29
BB/9: 6.45 BB/9: 2.48
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 4.71
IP: 22.3 IP: 41.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.99
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA CLE Lg Avg
Record 16-26 22-21
R/Game 4.26 4.19 4.42
RA/Game 4.95 4.16 4.42
OPS 0.708 0.690 0.708
wOBA 0.308 0.301 0.306
ERA 4.63 3.89 4.11
FIP 4.10 3.92 3.96
WHIP 1.45 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.77 9.35 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.432 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.45 4.03 4.11
BP FIP 4.61 3.79 3.91
BP WHIP 1.54 1.29
BP K/9 8.96 9.91
BP Quality* 55.9 46.4 45.1
BP IP 158.7 145.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alek Manoah (91 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Pallette (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rhys Hoskins, David Fry
Rhys Hoskins 1B OPS: 0.748 (279 AB)
David Fry RF OPS: 0.592 (146 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9725 (Temp: 0.9933 | Wind: 0.9791)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.4 - CLE 4.3
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.4 - CLE 4.3
Win Probability: LAA 50.5% - CLE 49.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAA -102 / CLE +102
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.0: 58.7%
Under 7.0: 30.8%
LAA +1.5: 67.0%
CLE -1.5: 33.0%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.989 / CLE 1.170
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.239 / CLE 1.029
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.6 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.6 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: LAA 57.4% - CLE 42.6% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -135 / CLE +135
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +120 -102 +5.1%
CLE ML -142 +102 -9.2%
LAA +1.5 -188 -203 +1.7%
CLE -1.5 +155 +203 -6.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +6.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -21.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Trevor Rogers
ERA: 4.22 ERA: 2.31
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 9.93 K/9: 8.37
BB/9: 3.32 BB/9: 2.48
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 2.88
IP: 41.7 IP: 30.3
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
Record 26-16 19-23
R/Game 5.17 4.38 4.42
RA/Game 3.45 5.33 4.42
OPS 0.771 0.697 0.708
wOBA 0.329 0.304 0.306
ERA 3.15 4.68 4.11
FIP 3.34 4.21 3.96
WHIP 1.15 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.93 8.51 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.677 0.411 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.28 4.29 4.11
BP FIP 3.56 3.88 3.91
BP WHIP 1.26 1.33
BP K/9 8.81 9.07
BP Quality* 47.4 49.8 45.1
BP IP 140.0 163.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dietrich Enns (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9785 (Temp: 0.9929 | Wind: 0.9855)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.4 - BAL 4.6
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.4 - BAL 4.6
Win Probability: NYY 47.8% - BAL 52.2%
Fair Moneyline: NYY +109 / BAL -109
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 50.5%
Under 8.5: 49.5%
NYY -1.5: 32.5%
BAL +1.5: 67.5%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 1.016 / BAL 0.711
Bullpen Adj: NYY 1.051 / BAL 1.104
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.0 - BAL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.0 - BAL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYY 41.8% - BAL 58.2% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +139 / BAL -139
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -142 +109 -10.9%
BAL ML +120 -109 +6.7%
NYY -1.5 +112 +208 -14.7%
BAL +1.5 -134 -208 +10.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -134 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00283
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Miles Mikolas Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 5.21 ERA: 4.4
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 5.8 K/9: 8.07
BB/9: 2.26 BB/9: 2.99
FIP: 5.14 FIP: 4.05
IP: 32.7 IP: 38.3
xERA: 5.27 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Brady Singer)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH CIN Lg Avg
Record 19-22 22-19
R/Game 5.29 4.00 4.42
RA/Game 5.61 4.80 4.42
OPS 0.722 0.686 0.708
wOBA 0.310 0.298 0.306
ERA 4.82 4.52 4.11
FIP 4.80 4.62 3.96
WHIP 1.42 1.47 1.31
K/9 7.53 7.67 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.417 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.84 4.46 4.11
BP FIP 4.98 4.65 3.91
BP WHIP 1.44 1.55
BP K/9 6.76 8.92
BP Quality* 53.7 53.1 45.1
BP IP 187.7 157.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Graham Ashcraft (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe DH OPS: 0.688 (540 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9876 (Temp: 1.0057 | Wind: 0.9820)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 6.0 - CIN 5.3
Simulated Avg: WSH 6.0 - CIN 5.3
Win Probability: WSH 55.6% - CIN 44.4%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -125 / CIN +125
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 9.0: 61.1%
Under 9.0: 30.3%
WSH +1.5: 69.0%
CIN -1.5: 31.0%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.266 / CIN 1.025
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.191 / CIN 1.177
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 3.1 - CIN 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.2 - CIN 3.0
F5 Win Prob: WSH 53.0% - CIN 47.0% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -113 / CIN +113
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +134 -125 +12.9%
CIN ML -158 +125 -16.9%
WSH +1.5 -160 -223 +7.5%
CIN -1.5 +132 +223 -12.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +8.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -22.1%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 2 (2 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.57%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00284
[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-160]
Model: 69.0% | Market: 61.5% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -223 | Kelly: 4.85%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00278
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HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +134 | Edge: 12.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00285
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 5.16 ERA: 2.06
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 0.9
K/9: 7.6 K/9: 10.25
BB/9: 2.55 BB/9: 1.89
FIP: 4.56 FIP: 2.33
IP: 39.0 IP: 42.0
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 2.65
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.255
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL PIT Lg Avg
Record 16-25 22-19
R/Game 4.27 5.02 4.42
RA/Game 5.12 4.27 4.42
OPS 0.719 0.727 0.708
wOBA 0.311 0.316 0.306
ERA 4.84 3.73 4.11
FIP 4.62 3.46 3.96
WHIP 1.42 1.23 1.31
K/9 7.70 8.86 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.417 0.574 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 4.14 4.11
BP FIP 3.98 3.65 3.91
BP WHIP 1.35 1.36
BP K/9 8.92 9.17
BP Quality* 46.4 44.1 45.1
BP IP 184.7 161.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jordan Beck, Brenton Doyle
Jordan Beck LF OPS: 0.733 (539 AB)
Brenton Doyle CF OPS: 0.650 (502 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.2% of full strength
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9783 (Temp: 0.9968 | Wind: 0.9814)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 2.9 - PIT 5.4
Simulated Avg: COL 2.9 - PIT 5.4
Win Probability: COL 25.9% - PIT 74.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL +287 / PIT -287
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 43.5%
Under 8.5: 56.5%
COL +1.5: 41.9%
PIT -1.5: 58.1%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.150 / PIT 0.578
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.029 / PIT 0.978
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 1.3 - PIT 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 1.3 - PIT 3.1
F5 Win Prob: COL 19.4% - PIT 80.6% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +415 / PIT -415
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +152 +287 -13.8%
PIT ML -180 -287 +9.9%
COL +1.5 -142 +139 -16.8%
PIT -1.5 +118 -139 +12.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +118 | Edge: 12.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00286
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Wheeler Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BOS Lg Avg
Record 19-22 17-23
R/Game 4.15 3.90 4.42
RA/Game 4.93 4.20 4.42
OPS 0.699 0.667 0.708
wOBA 0.302 0.294 0.306
ERA 4.57 4.00 4.11
FIP 3.44 4.15 3.96
WHIP 1.41 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.68 8.10 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.422 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.96 3.39 4.11
BP FIP 3.16 3.98 3.91
BP WHIP 1.33 1.23
BP K/9 9.48 8.42
BP Quality* 40.8 42.1 45.1
BP IP 156.7 154.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Andruw Monasterio
Willson Contreras 1B OPS: 0.791 (490 AB)
Andruw Monasterio SS OPS: 0.756 (126 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9744 (Temp: 0.9860 | Wind: 0.9882)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.0 - BOS 3.6
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.0 - BOS 3.6
Win Probability: PHI 55.2% - BOS 44.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -123 / BOS +123
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 9.0: 27.1%
Under 9.0: 64.0%
PHI +1.5: 72.4%
BOS -1.5: 27.6%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.935 / BOS 1.000
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.905 / BOS 0.933
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.3 - BOS 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.3 - BOS 2.0
F5 Win Prob: PHI 56.6% - BOS 43.4% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -131 / BOS +131
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +112 -123 +8.0%
BOS ML -132 +123 -12.1%
PHI +1.5 -184 -262 +7.6%
BOS -1.5 +152 +262 -12.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -25.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +11.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (Run Line) [-184]
Model: 72.4% | Market: 64.8% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -262 | Kelly: 5.41%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00287
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00288
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane McClanahan Home: Patrick Corbin
ERA: 2.6 ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 8.83 K/9: 7.37
BB/9: 3.63 BB/9: 2.91
FIP: 2.73 FIP: 4.12
IP: 34.7 IP: 30.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.77
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
Record 27-13 18-23
R/Game 4.47 4.12 4.42
RA/Game 3.90 4.49 4.42
OPS 0.704 0.691 0.708
wOBA 0.304 0.298 0.306
ERA 3.48 4.16 4.11
FIP 3.91 3.61 3.96
WHIP 1.16 1.29 1.31
K/9 7.81 9.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.563 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 4.20 4.11
BP FIP 4.28 3.37 3.91
BP WHIP 1.26 1.29
BP K/9 8.06 9.73
BP Quality* 47.2 48.1 45.1
BP IP 156.3 169.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.7 - TOR 3.4
Simulated Avg: TB 4.7 - TOR 3.4
Win Probability: TB 62.9% - TOR 37.1%
Fair Moneyline: TB -170 / TOR +170
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.2%
Under 7.5: 47.8%
TB +1.5: 78.4%
TOR -1.5: 21.6%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.652 / TOR 1.066
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.047 / TOR 1.067
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.6 - TOR 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.6 - TOR 1.5
F5 Win Prob: TB 70.3% - TOR 29.7% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -237 / TOR +237
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +142 -170 +21.6%
TOR ML -168 +170 -25.6%
TB +1.5 -152 -362 +18.1%
TOR -1.5 +126 +362 -22.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Tampa Bay Rays (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +142 | Edge: 21.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00289
[HMC] Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -152 | Edge: 18.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00290
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jack Flaherty Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 4.85 ERA: 2.8
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 10.65 K/9: 10.06
BB/9: 4.12 BB/9: 3.45
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 3.48
IP: 34.0 IP: 43.3
xERA: 3.99 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Freddy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYM Lg Avg
Record 19-22 15-25
R/Game 4.27 3.48 4.42
RA/Game 4.17 4.25 4.42
OPS 0.714 0.628 0.708
wOBA 0.312 0.273 0.306
ERA 3.90 3.85 4.11
FIP 3.62 3.41 3.96
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.67 9.45 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.409 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.83 3.71 4.11
BP FIP 3.81 3.38 3.91
BP WHIP 1.37 1.28
BP K/9 8.75 9.57
BP Quality* 44.0 40.5 45.1
BP IP 157.3 162.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Slater, Luis Torrens, Vidal Bruján
Austin Slater LF OPS: 0.642 (148 AB)
Luis Torrens C OPS: 0.629 (261 AB)
Vidal Bruján 3B OPS: 0.615 (87 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 54°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (54°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9622 (Temp: 0.9788 | Wind: 0.9830)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.3 - NYM 3.3
Simulated Avg: DET 3.3 - NYM 3.3
Win Probability: DET 50.1% - NYM 49.9%
Fair Moneyline: DET -100 / NYM +100
Avg Total Runs: 6.6
Over 8.0: 25.1%
Under 8.0: 65.1%
DET -1.5: 30.7%
NYM +1.5: 69.3%
Pitcher Adj: DET 1.022 / NYM 0.801
Bullpen Adj: DET 0.976 / NYM 0.898
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 1.8 - NYM 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.8 - NYM 1.9
F5 Win Prob: DET 48.5% - NYM 51.5% (Tie: 20.7%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +106 / NYM -106
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -112 -100 -2.8%
NYM ML -104 +100 -1.1%
DET -1.5 +150 +225 -9.3%
NYM +1.5 -182 -225 +4.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -27.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +12.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00291
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Colin Rea Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 9.1
BB/9: 2.54 BB/9: 4.2
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 4.34
IP: 38.0 IP: 37.3
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 4.55
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Colin Rea)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC ATL Lg Avg
Record 27-14 28-13
R/Game 5.24 5.56 4.42
RA/Game 4.10 3.44 4.42
OPS 0.764 0.784 0.708
wOBA 0.329 0.335 0.306
ERA 3.81 3.14 4.11
FIP 4.09 3.76 3.96
WHIP 1.20 1.16 1.31
K/9 8.29 8.88 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.611 0.707 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 3.31 4.11
BP FIP 4.31 3.37 3.91
BP WHIP 1.24 1.14
BP K/9 7.91 9.17
BP Quality* 45.4 38.1 45.1
BP IP 149.0 141.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9906 (Temp: 0.9971 | Wind: 0.9934)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.0 - ATL 5.8
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.0 - ATL 5.8
Win Probability: CHC 43.6% - ATL 56.4%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +130 / ATL -130
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 9.0: 57.8%
Under 9.0: 33.0%
CHC -1.5: 30.4%
ATL +1.5: 69.6%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.005 / ATL 1.057
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.007 / ATL 0.845
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.1 - ATL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.1 - ATL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: CHC 48.6% - ATL 51.4% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +106 / ATL -106
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -142 +130 -15.1%
ATL ML +120 -130 +11.0%
CHC -1.5 +116 +229 -15.9%
ATL +1.5 -140 -229 +11.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +5.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -19.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +120 | Edge: 11.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00292
[HMC] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -140 | Edge: 11.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00293
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Stephen Kolek Home: Erick Fedde
ERA: 3.54 ERA: 5.25
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 6.1 K/9: 5.35
BB/9: 2.41 BB/9: 4.11
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 5.17
IP: 6.0 IP: 38.0
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: KC (Stephen Kolek)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
Record 19-22 19-21
R/Game 4.12 4.28 4.42
RA/Game 4.46 4.62 4.42
OPS 0.710 0.713 0.708
wOBA 0.307 0.305 0.306
ERA 4.27 4.24 4.11
FIP 4.23 4.22 3.96
WHIP 1.36 1.36 1.31
K/9 8.57 8.17 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.79 4.50 4.11
BP FIP 4.63 4.37 3.91
BP WHIP 1.47 1.46
BP K/9 8.55 8.14
BP Quality* 53.4 51.2 45.1
BP IP 139.0 178.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9700 (Temp: 0.9942 | Wind: 0.9756)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.8 - CWS 4.6
Simulated Avg: KC 4.8 - CWS 4.5
Win Probability: KC 52.3% - CWS 47.7%
Fair Moneyline: KC -110 / CWS +110
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.0: 54.1%
Under 8.0: 35.6%
KC -1.5: 36.9%
CWS +1.5: 63.1%
Pitcher Adj: KC 1.003 / CWS 1.283
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.184 / CWS 1.135
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.8 - CWS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.8 - CWS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: KC 57.7% - CWS 42.3% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -136 / CWS +136
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML -112 -110 -0.5%
CWS ML -104 +110 -3.3%
KC -1.5 +152 +171 -2.8%
CWS +1.5 -184 -171 -1.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -16.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eury Pérez Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 4.42 ERA: 4.89
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.88 K/9: 7.22
BB/9: 3.37 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 4.63
IP: 41.3 IP: 43.0
xERA: 3.23 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.281 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIN Lg Avg
Record 19-22 18-23
R/Game 4.29 4.73 4.42
RA/Game 4.37 5.02 4.42
OPS 0.705 0.708 0.708
wOBA 0.308 0.309 0.306
ERA 4.06 4.63 4.11
FIP 3.66 4.07 3.96
WHIP 1.26 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.44 7.75 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.473 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.37 5.54 4.11
BP FIP 3.27 4.38 3.91
BP WHIP 1.19 1.61
BP K/9 9.42 7.35
BP Quality* 40.1 57.6 45.1
BP IP 144.3 149.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Andrew Nardi (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis García (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Matt Wallner, Victor Caratini
Matt Wallner RF OPS: 0.775 (336 AB)
Victor Caratini C OPS: 0.728 (344 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 18 mph (gusts 34 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), strong wind out (18 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0471 (Temp: 0.9918 | Wind: 1.0557)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 5.3 - MIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIA 5.2 - MIN 4.4
Win Probability: MIA 57.2% - MIN 42.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -133 / MIN +133
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.2%
Under 8.5: 42.8%
MIA -1.5: 42.1%
MIN +1.5: 57.9%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 0.913 / MIN 1.119
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.889 / MIN 1.277
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.8 - MIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.8 - MIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 55.6% - MIN 44.4% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -125 / MIN +125
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -122 -133 +2.2%
MIN ML +104 +133 -6.2%
MIA -1.5 +140 +137 +0.5%
MIN +1.5 -170 -137 -5.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bradgley Rodriguez Home: Brandon Sproat
ERA: 1.83 ERA: 5.87
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 6.41 K/9: 8.8
BB/9: 2.29 BB/9: 5.28
FIP: 2.44 FIP: 5.87
IP: 19.7 IP: 30.7
xERA: 2.29 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.237 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: SD (Bradgley Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
Record 24-16 22-16
R/Game 4.25 5.13 4.42
RA/Game 4.17 3.71 4.42
OPS 0.667 0.686 0.708
wOBA 0.288 0.297 0.306
ERA 4.07 3.43 4.11
FIP 3.51 3.33 3.96
WHIP 1.23 1.24 1.31
K/9 8.80 9.74 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.644 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 3.42 4.11
BP FIP 3.03 3.26 3.91
BP WHIP 1.17 1.34
BP K/9 9.39 9.19
BP Quality* 40.4 42.7 45.1
BP IP 162.0 157.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9714 (Temp: 0.9946 | Wind: 0.9767)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.6 - MIL 4.1
Simulated Avg: SD 4.6 - MIL 4.2
Win Probability: SD 54.1% - MIL 45.9%
Fair Moneyline: SD -118 / MIL +118
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.0: 58.7%
Under 7.0: 30.8%
SD +1.5: 70.1%
MIL -1.5: 29.9%
Pitcher Adj: SD 0.772 / MIL 1.277
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.896 / MIL 0.947
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.9 - MIL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.9 - MIL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SD 61.8% - MIL 38.2% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -162 / MIL +162
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +100 -118 +4.1%
MIL ML -118 +118 -8.2%
SD +1.5 -220 -234 +1.3%
MIL -1.5 +180 +234 -5.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +6.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -21.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zac Gallen Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 4.8 ERA: 4.4
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.67 K/9: 10.51
BB/9: 3.03 BB/9: 3.87
FIP: 4.34 FIP: 3.68
IP: 38.3 IP: 40.0
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI TEX Lg Avg
Record 20-20 19-22
R/Game 4.25 3.63 4.42
RA/Game 4.78 3.73 4.42
OPS 0.686 0.679 0.708
wOBA 0.295 0.296 0.306
ERA 4.38 3.59 4.11
FIP 4.25 3.80 3.96
WHIP 1.29 1.22 1.31
K/9 7.51 8.86 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.34 2.68 4.11
BP FIP 3.94 3.70 3.91
BP WHIP 1.15 1.19
BP K/9 7.80 7.47
BP Quality* 47.5 41.4 45.1
BP IP 143.0 144.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jalen Beeks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9948 (Temp: 1.0120 | Wind: 0.9830)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.2 - TEX 4.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.2 - TEX 4.2
Win Probability: ARI 50.3% - TEX 49.7%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -101 / TEX +101
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 45.0%
Under 8.5: 55.0%
ARI +1.5: 67.1%
TEX -1.5: 32.9%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.078 / TEX 0.995
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.053 / TEX 0.918
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.5 - TEX 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.5 - TEX 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ARI 52.4% - TEX 47.6% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -110 / TEX +110
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +114 -101 +3.6%
TEX ML -134 +101 -7.6%
ARI +1.5 -184 -204 +2.3%
TEX -1.5 +155 +204 -6.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryan Woo Home: Tatsuya Imai
ERA: 3.19 ERA: 7.27
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 2.08
K/9: 9.03 K/9: 13.5
BB/9: 1.69 BB/9: 11.42
FIP: 3.43 FIP: 3.9
IP: 47.0 IP: 8.7
xERA: 3.07 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
Record 20-22 16-26
R/Game 4.05 4.69 4.42
RA/Game 3.95 5.55 4.42
OPS 0.693 0.758 0.708
wOBA 0.304 0.324 0.306
ERA 3.71 5.50 4.11
FIP 3.50 4.76 3.96
WHIP 1.23 1.58 1.31
K/9 8.63 9.09 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.424 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.31 5.98 4.11
BP FIP 3.23 5.44 3.91
BP WHIP 1.33 1.62
BP K/9 9.11 8.85
BP Quality* 42.0 62.1 45.1
BP IP 133.3 176.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nick Davila (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0178 (Temp: 1.0060 | Wind: 1.0117)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 5.7 - HOU 4.1
Simulated Avg: SEA 5.7 - HOU 4.1
Win Probability: SEA 63.4% - HOU 36.6%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -173 / HOU +173
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 48.2%
Under 9.0: 41.9%
SEA -1.5: 48.7%
HOU +1.5: 51.3%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.789 / HOU 1.424
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.931 / HOU 1.377
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 3.2 - HOU 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 3.2 - HOU 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 66.5% - HOU 33.5% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -198 / HOU +198
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -120 -173 +8.9%
HOU ML +102 +173 -12.9%
SEA -1.5 +132 +105 +5.6%
HOU +1.5 -160 -105 -10.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andre Pallante Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 5.12 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 6.31 K/9: 7.42
BB/9: 3.52 BB/9: 2.75
FIP: 4.56 FIP: 4.48
IP: 37.3 IP: 44.0
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL ATH Lg Avg
Record 23-17 21-19
R/Game 4.65 4.40 4.42
RA/Game 4.58 4.55 4.42
OPS 0.706 0.726 0.708
wOBA 0.304 0.311 0.306
ERA 4.25 4.42 4.11
FIP 4.26 4.55 3.96
WHIP 1.37 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.27 8.10 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 4.67 4.11
BP FIP 4.08 4.20 3.91
BP WHIP 1.42 1.45
BP K/9 7.97 8.56
BP Quality* 48.6 49.3 45.1
BP IP 149.0 150.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9644 (Temp: 0.9813 | Wind: 0.9827)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.8 - ATH 4.9
Simulated Avg: STL 4.8 - ATH 4.9
Win Probability: STL 48.7% - ATH 51.3%
Fair Moneyline: STL +105 / ATH -105
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
STL -1.5: 34.1%
STL +1.5: 63.9%
ATH -1.5: 36.1%
ATH +1.5: 65.9%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.121 / ATH 1.049
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.078 / ATH 1.093
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.7 - ATH 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.7 - ATH 2.8
F5 Win Prob: STL 48.6% - ATH 51.4% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +106 / ATH -106
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Adrian Houser Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 3.89 ERA: 2.61
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 6.24 K/9: 9.98
BB/9: 2.74 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 2.97
IP: 36.3 IP: 43.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 2.74
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.259
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
Record 17-24 24-17
R/Game 3.39 5.02 4.42
RA/Game 4.41 3.49 4.42
OPS 0.656 0.778 0.708
wOBA 0.282 0.332 0.306
ERA 4.03 3.42 4.11
FIP 4.06 3.41 3.96
WHIP 1.33 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.11 9.05 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.382 0.661 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 3.67 4.11
BP FIP 4.04 2.98 3.91
BP WHIP 1.39 1.21
BP K/9 7.59 9.38
BP Quality* 51.0 42.6 45.1
BP IP 138.7 127.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Ryan Borucki (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Wyatt Mills (B2B, 37 pitches)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9833 (Temp: 0.9867 | Wind: 0.9966)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 2.5 - LAD 5.0
Simulated Avg: SF 2.5 - LAD 5.1
Win Probability: SF 23.5% - LAD 76.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +325 / LAD -325
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.0: 35.8%
Under 8.0: 53.7%
SF +1.5: 40.1%
LAD -1.5: 59.9%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.966 / LAD 0.681
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.131 / LAD 0.945
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.2 - LAD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.2 - LAD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: SF 23.6% - LAD 76.4% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +323 / LAD -323
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +205 +325 -9.3%
LAD ML -250 -325 +5.1%
SF +1.5 -110 +150 -12.3%
LAD -1.5 -110 -150 +7.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -16.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +1.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (Run Line) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -150 | Kelly: 3.96%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00294