2026-05-13
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-13
Games: 15 | Plays: 5
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Max Fried Home: Kyle Bradish
ERA: 2.87 ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.36 K/9: 12.46
BB/9: 2.46 BB/9: 3.27
FIP: 2.81 FIP: 2.73
IP: 58.7 IP: 41.0
xERA: 3.38 xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: 0.287 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
Record 27-16 19-24
R/Game 5.19 4.33 4.42
RA/Game 3.42 5.35 4.42
OPS 0.773 0.691 0.708
wOBA 0.330 0.302 0.306
ERA 3.12 4.71 4.11
FIP 3.30 4.26 3.96
WHIP 1.14 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.91 8.47 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.682 0.404 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.20 4.16 4.09
BP FIP 3.52 3.86 3.90
BP WHIP 1.25 1.32
BP K/9 8.73 9.02
BP Quality* 45.4 49.2 45.0
BP IP 143.3 168.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), strong wind in (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9568 (Temp: 1.0071 | Wind: 0.9501)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.3 - BAL 3.6
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.3 - BAL 3.6
Win Probability: NYY 56.7% - BAL 43.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -131 / BAL +131
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 40.1%
Under 8.5: 59.9%
NYY -1.5: 39.2%
BAL +1.5: 60.8%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.736 / BAL 0.715
Bullpen Adj: NYY 1.009 / BAL 1.093
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.0 - BAL 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.0 - BAL 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYY 54.4% - BAL 45.6% (Tie: 20.0%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -120 / BAL +120
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -186 -131 -8.4%
BAL ML +156 +131 +4.3%
NYY -1.5 -114 +155 -14.1%
BAL +1.5 -105 -155 +9.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.5%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 2 (2 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.95%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00295
[STANDARD EDGE] Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (Run Line) [-105]
Model: 60.8% | Market: 51.2% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.90%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00296
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Reid Detmers Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 4.04 ERA: 2.62
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 10.94 K/9: 8.88
BB/9: 3.43 BB/9: 1.53
FIP: 2.96 FIP: 2.9
IP: 43.7 IP: 47.0
xERA: 3.61 xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA CLE Lg Avg
Record 16-27 23-21
R/Game 4.21 4.16 4.42
RA/Game 4.91 4.11 4.42
OPS 0.709 0.687 0.708
wOBA 0.308 0.300 0.306
ERA 4.58 3.85 4.11
FIP 4.12 3.90 3.96
WHIP 1.44 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.68 9.43 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.430 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.34 4.01 4.09
BP FIP 4.64 3.84 3.90
BP WHIP 1.53 1.29
BP K/9 8.80 9.94
BP Quality* 57.2 46.6 45.0
BP IP 161.7 150.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: José Fermin (B2B, 26 pitches)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 55°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (55°F), crosswind (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9814 (Temp: 0.9791 | Wind: 1.0023)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.3 - CLE 4.1
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.3 - CLE 4.1
Win Probability: LAA 40.4% - CLE 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +148 / CLE -148
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.0: 44.8%
Under 7.0: 43.4%
LAA +1.5: 59.5%
CLE -1.5: 40.5%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.841 / CLE 0.703
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.271 / CLE 1.036
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.6 - CLE 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.6 - CLE 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAA 43.5% - CLE 56.5% (Tie: 21.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +130 / CLE -130
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +132 +148 -2.7%
CLE ML -156 -148 -1.3%
LAA +1.5 -166 -147 -2.9%
CLE -1.5 +138 +147 -1.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -7.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -9.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jake Irvin Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 5.59 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 6.91 K/9: 8.8
BB/9: 3.22 BB/9: 1.78
FIP: 5.13 FIP: 3.65
IP: 39.7 IP: 5.3
xERA: 5.59 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Nick Lodolo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH CIN Lg Avg
Record 20-22 22-20
R/Game 5.40 4.00 4.42
RA/Game 5.57 4.93 4.42
OPS 0.736 0.684 0.708
wOBA 0.315 0.298 0.306
ERA 4.77 4.65 4.11
FIP 4.73 4.78 3.96
WHIP 1.42 1.48 1.31
K/9 7.59 7.72 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.406 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.79 4.70 4.09
BP FIP 4.85 4.82 3.90
BP WHIP 1.44 1.57
BP K/9 6.94 9.07
BP Quality* 55.8 57.8 45.0
BP IP 193.3 162.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Paxton Schultz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Lord (36 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Connor Phillips (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), strong wind out (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0397 (Temp: 0.9910 | Wind: 1.0492)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 6.8 - CIN 5.8
Simulated Avg: WSH 6.8 - CIN 5.8
Win Probability: WSH 57.3% - CIN 42.7%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -134 / CIN +134
Avg Total Runs: 12.7
Over 9.0: 71.3%
Under 9.0: 21.5%
WSH +1.5: 69.4%
CIN -1.5: 30.6%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.315 / CIN 1.072
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.240 / CIN 1.284
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 3.5 - CIN 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.5 - CIN 3.3
F5 Win Prob: WSH 53.6% - CIN 46.4% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -116 / CIN +116
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +134 -134 +14.6%
CIN ML -158 +134 -18.5%
WSH +1.5 -146 -227 +10.1%
CIN -1.5 +122 +227 -14.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +18.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -30.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +134 | Edge: 14.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00297
[HMC] Over 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 18.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00298
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -146 | Edge: 10.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00299
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jose Quintana Home: Mitch Keller
ERA: 3.95 ERA: 3.89
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 5.76 K/9: 7.44
BB/9: 3.5 BB/9: 2.62
FIP: 4.83 FIP: 3.64
IP: 30.0 IP: 47.0
xERA: 5.2 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Mitch Keller)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL PIT Lg Avg
Record 16-26 23-19
R/Game 4.19 4.98 4.42
RA/Game 5.07 4.19 4.42
OPS 0.711 0.727 0.708
wOBA 0.308 0.317 0.306
ERA 4.81 3.67 4.11
FIP 4.59 3.40 3.96
WHIP 1.42 1.22 1.31
K/9 7.70 8.89 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.414 0.578 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.41 4.17 4.09
BP FIP 3.97 3.64 3.90
BP WHIP 1.36 1.36
BP K/9 8.87 9.11
BP Quality* 47.8 45.7 45.0
BP IP 187.7 162.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), crosswind (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9777 (Temp: 0.9867 | Wind: 0.9909)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 3.9 - PIT 5.4
Simulated Avg: COL 3.9 - PIT 5.4
Win Probability: COL 35.8% - PIT 64.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL +180 / PIT -180
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 53.8%
Under 8.5: 46.2%
COL +1.5: 51.3%
PIT -1.5: 48.7%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.153 / PIT 0.970
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.062 / PIT 1.016
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.1 - PIT 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.1 - PIT 3.1
F5 Win Prob: COL 35.5% - PIT 64.5% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +182 / PIT -182
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +150 +180 -4.3%
PIT ML -178 -180 +0.2%
COL +1.5 -140 -105 -7.0%
PIT -1.5 +116 +105 +2.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Painter Home: Sonny Gray
ERA: 6.89 ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.71 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 8.27 K/9: 9.12
BB/9: 3.31 BB/9: 1.95
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 3.45
IP: 32.7 IP: 28.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BOS Lg Avg
Record 20-22 17-24
R/Game 4.10 3.83 4.42
RA/Game 4.83 4.15 4.42
OPS 0.695 0.664 0.708
wOBA 0.300 0.293 0.306
ERA 4.46 3.95 4.11
FIP 3.40 4.13 3.96
WHIP 1.40 1.28 1.31
K/9 9.62 8.12 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.425 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.92 3.28 4.09
BP FIP 3.14 3.89 3.90
BP WHIP 1.33 1.21
BP K/9 9.55 8.39
BP Quality* 42.0 45.6 45.0
BP IP 158.3 162.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Zack Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Samaniego (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (88 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 30 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9791 (Temp: 0.9915 | Wind: 0.9875)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.1 - BOS 4.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.1 - BOS 4.8
Win Probability: PHI 43.5% - BOS 56.5%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +130 / BOS -130
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 39.3%
Under 9.0: 50.7%
PHI +1.5: 59.6%
BOS -1.5: 40.4%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 1.364 / BOS 0.981
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.933 / BOS 1.013
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.3 - BOS 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.3 - BOS 3.0
F5 Win Prob: PHI 38.6% - BOS 61.4% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +159 / BOS -159
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +112 +130 -3.7%
BOS ML -132 -130 -0.4%
PHI +1.5 -178 -148 -4.4%
BOS -1.5 +146 +148 -0.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -13.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -1.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Griffin Jax Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 4.3 ERA: 4.1
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 13.07 K/9: 11.88
BB/9: 3.04 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 2.65 FIP: 3.03
IP: 18.0 IP: 45.3
xERA: 3.26 xERA: 3.46
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: TB (Griffin Jax)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
Record 28-13 18-24
R/Game 4.54 4.17 4.42
RA/Game 3.95 4.55 4.42
OPS 0.709 0.684 0.708
wOBA 0.306 0.295 0.306
ERA 3.48 4.19 4.11
FIP 3.85 3.63 3.96
WHIP 1.15 1.30 1.31
K/9 7.90 9.06 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.563 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 4.22 4.09
BP FIP 4.22 3.44 3.90
BP WHIP 1.27 1.30
BP K/9 8.09 9.77
BP Quality* 53.4 45.6 45.0
BP IP 161.3 175.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (32 pitches yesterday)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.0 - TOR 4.4
Simulated Avg: TB 4.1 - TOR 4.4
Win Probability: TB 46.5% - TOR 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB +115 / TOR -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.8%
Under 7.5: 44.2%
TB +1.5: 63.4%
TOR -1.5: 36.6%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.927 / TOR 0.839
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.187 / TOR 1.013
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.1 - TOR 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.1 - TOR 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 48.4% - TOR 51.6% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +106 / TOR -106
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +134 +115 +3.8%
TOR ML -158 -115 -7.8%
TB +1.5 -162 -173 +1.6%
TOR -1.5 +134 +173 -6.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Framber Valdez Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 3.27
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.43 K/9: 12.27
BB/9: 3.17 BB/9: 5.73
FIP: 3.41 FIP: 3.46
IP: 43.3 IP: 11.0
xERA: 3.79 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYM Lg Avg
Record 19-23 16-25
R/Game 4.21 3.63 4.42
RA/Game 4.31 4.20 4.42
OPS 0.716 0.634 0.708
wOBA 0.313 0.276 0.306
ERA 3.99 3.80 4.11
FIP 3.61 3.40 3.96
WHIP 1.33 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.68 9.49 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.95 3.64 4.09
BP FIP 3.77 3.37 3.90
BP WHIP 1.40 1.29
BP K/9 8.85 9.62
BP Quality* 47.4 41.8 45.0
BP IP 161.7 165.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Enmanuel De Jesus (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ricky Vanasco (38 pitches yesterday)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Austin Warren (41 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 18 mph (gusts 44 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Cool (60°F), strong wind in (18 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9554 (Temp: 0.9855 | Wind: 0.9695)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.4 - NYM 3.3
Simulated Avg: DET 3.4 - NYM 3.3
Win Probability: DET 51.2% - NYM 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: DET -105 / NYM +105
Avg Total Runs: 6.7
Over 8.0: 26.4%
Under 8.0: 63.5%
DET +1.5: 70.4%
NYM -1.5: 29.6%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.890 / NYM 0.873
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.053 / NYM 0.929
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 1.9 - NYM 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.9 - NYM 1.7
F5 Win Prob: DET 54.1% - NYM 45.9% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -118 / NYM +118
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -106 -105 -0.3%
NYM ML -110 +105 -3.5%
DET +1.5 -192 -238 +4.7%
NYM -1.5 +158 +238 -9.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -26.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +11.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00300
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shota Imanaga Home: JR Ritchie
ERA: 3.4 ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 0.98 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 7.92 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 1.81 BB/9: 6.23
FIP: 4.35 FIP: 6.68
IP: 47.3 IP: 17.3
xERA: 4.07 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Shota Imanaga)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC ATL Lg Avg
Record 27-15 29-13
R/Game 5.17 5.55 4.42
RA/Game 4.12 3.40 4.42
OPS 0.756 0.787 0.708
wOBA 0.327 0.336 0.306
ERA 3.85 3.11 4.11
FIP 4.13 3.77 3.96
WHIP 1.21 1.15 1.31
K/9 8.23 8.88 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.602 0.710 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.77 3.20 4.09
BP FIP 4.25 3.33 3.90
BP WHIP 1.24 1.11
BP K/9 7.96 9.10
BP Quality* 44.8 40.3 45.0
BP IP 152.7 146.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (36 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0042 (Temp: 1.0036 | Wind: 1.0005)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.4 - ATL 5.7
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.4 - ATL 5.7
Win Probability: CHC 37.5% - ATL 62.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +167 / ATL -167
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.5: 61.0%
Under 8.5: 39.0%
CHC -1.5: 24.4%
ATL +1.5: 75.6%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 0.977 / ATL 0.807
Bullpen Adj: CHC 0.996 / ATL 0.896
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.4 - ATL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.4 - ATL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CHC 38.9% - ATL 61.1% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +157 / ATL -157
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -144 +167 -21.5%
ATL ML +122 -167 +17.4%
CHC -1.5 +116 +310 -21.9%
ATL +1.5 -140 -310 +17.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.51%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00301
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +122 | Edge: 17.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00302
[HMC] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -140 | Edge: 17.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00303
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Seth Lugo Home: Noah Schultz
ERA: 3.94 ERA: 4.68
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.78 K/9: 8.28
BB/9: 3.36 BB/9: 5.76
FIP: 4.42 FIP: 4.22
IP: 47.7 IP: 25.0
xERA: 5.16 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
Record 19-23 20-21
R/Game 4.14 4.32 4.42
RA/Game 4.50 4.63 4.42
OPS 0.713 0.715 0.708
wOBA 0.308 0.306 0.306
ERA 4.33 4.26 4.11
FIP 4.28 4.25 3.96
WHIP 1.36 1.36 1.31
K/9 8.65 8.09 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.74 4.55 4.09
BP FIP 4.64 4.33 3.90
BP WHIP 1.45 1.46
BP K/9 8.66 8.11
BP Quality* 53.1 52.7 45.0
BP IP 142.3 182.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 50°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (50°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9964 (Temp: 0.9741 | Wind: 1.0230)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.5 - CWS 5.0
Simulated Avg: KC 4.5 - CWS 5.0
Win Probability: KC 45.4% - CWS 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: KC +120 / CWS -120
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 55.6%
Under 8.0: 34.4%
KC -1.5: 30.8%
CWS +1.5: 69.2%
Pitcher Adj: KC 1.109 / CWS 1.077
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.180 / CWS 1.171
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.5 - CWS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.4 - CWS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: KC 46.1% - CWS 53.9% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +117 / CWS -117
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML -112 +120 -7.5%
CWS ML -104 -120 +3.6%
KC -1.5 +146 +225 -9.8%
CWS +1.5 -178 -225 +5.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Meyer Home: Simeon Woods Richardson
ERA: 4.29 ERA: 4.7
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 9.5 K/9: 7.67
BB/9: 2.88 BB/9: 3.71
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 4.77
IP: 42.0 IP: 39.0
xERA: 4.8 xERA: 3.82
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Max Meyer)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIN Lg Avg
Record 19-23 19-23
R/Game 4.19 4.69 4.42
RA/Game 4.33 4.90 4.42
OPS 0.694 0.705 0.708
wOBA 0.304 0.308 0.306
ERA 4.04 4.51 4.11
FIP 3.68 4.01 3.96
WHIP 1.26 1.36 1.31
K/9 8.50 7.73 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.32 5.54 4.09
BP FIP 3.30 4.38 3.90
BP WHIP 1.20 1.61
BP K/9 9.41 7.35
BP Quality* 40.2 54.6 45.0
BP IP 146.3 149.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0257 (Temp: 0.9962 | Wind: 1.0296)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.8 - MIN 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.8 - MIN 4.9
Win Probability: MIA 48.8% - MIN 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +105 / MIN -105
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 58.2%
Under 8.5: 41.8%
MIA -1.5: 34.2%
MIN +1.5: 65.8%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.054 / MIN 1.075
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.893 / MIN 1.213
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.6 - MIN 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.6 - MIN 2.9
F5 Win Prob: MIA 45.2% - MIN 54.8% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +121 / MIN -121
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -124 +105 -6.5%
MIN ML +106 -105 +2.6%
MIA -1.5 +136 +192 -8.2%
MIN +1.5 -164 -192 +3.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael King Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 3.28 ERA: 3.92
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.22 K/9: 12.42
BB/9: 3.36 BB/9: 4.06
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 3.18
IP: 45.7 IP: 44.0
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
Record 24-17 23-16
R/Game 4.24 5.15 4.42
RA/Game 4.22 3.72 4.42
OPS 0.667 0.692 0.708
wOBA 0.288 0.300 0.306
ERA 4.13 3.45 4.11
FIP 3.50 3.31 3.96
WHIP 1.24 1.24 1.31
K/9 8.83 9.82 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.645 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 3.40 4.09
BP FIP 3.05 3.19 3.90
BP WHIP 1.20 1.33
BP K/9 9.43 9.37
BP Quality* 41.3 42.2 45.0
BP IP 169.0 161.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Waldron (59 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (34 pitches yesterday)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 53°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (53°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0065 (Temp: 0.9776 | Wind: 1.0296)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.6 - MIL 4.9
Simulated Avg: SD 3.6 - MIL 4.9
Win Probability: SD 36.7% - MIL 63.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD +172 / MIL -172
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.0: 57.1%
Under 7.0: 32.4%
SD +1.5: 53.6%
MIL -1.5: 46.4%
Pitcher Adj: SD 0.959 / MIL 0.838
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.918 / MIL 0.938
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.9 - MIL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.0 - MIL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SD 36.2% - MIL 63.8% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +176 / MIL -176
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +128 +172 -7.1%
MIL ML -152 -172 +3.0%
SD +1.5 -170 -116 -9.4%
MIL -1.5 +140 +116 +4.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +4.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -20.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryne Nelson Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 3.91 ERA: 5.59
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 7.84 K/9: 7.77
BB/9: 2.61 BB/9: 3.3
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 4.58
IP: 38.0 IP: 32.3
xERA: 3.93 xERA: 5.73
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.364
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Ryne Nelson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI TEX Lg Avg
Record 20-21 20-22
R/Game 4.24 3.71 4.42
RA/Game 4.83 3.74 4.42
OPS 0.683 0.684 0.708
wOBA 0.293 0.298 0.306
ERA 4.46 3.60 4.11
FIP 4.26 3.82 3.96
WHIP 1.30 1.21 1.31
K/9 7.60 8.76 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 2.84 4.09
BP FIP 3.84 3.76 3.90
BP WHIP 1.15 1.21
BP K/9 8.00 7.41
BP Quality* 45.2 41.0 45.0
BP IP 146.3 145.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandon Pfaadt (39 pitches yesterday)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0022 (Temp: 1.0192 | Wind: 0.9834)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 5.0 - TEX 3.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 5.0 - TEX 3.9
Win Probability: ARI 59.8% - TEX 40.2%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -149 / TEX +149
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.0%
Under 8.5: 50.0%
ARI +1.5: 74.8%
TEX -1.5: 25.2%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 0.958 / TEX 1.274
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.004 / TEX 0.911
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 3.2 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.1 - TEX 2.1
F5 Win Prob: ARI 65.7% - TEX 34.3% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -192 / TEX +192
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -106 -149 +8.3%
TEX ML -110 +149 -12.2%
ARI +1.5 -192 -297 +9.1%
TEX -1.5 +158 +297 -13.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (Run Line) [-192]
Model: 74.8% | Market: 65.8% | Edge: 9.1%
Fair ML: -297 | Kelly: 6.62%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00304
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Miller Home: Lance McCullers Jr.
ERA: 5.68 ERA: 6.69
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.75
K/9: 7.37 K/9: 9.89
BB/9: 3.39 BB/9: 6.13
FIP: 5.04 FIP: 5.21
IP: 90.3 IP: 34.0
xERA: 5.27 xERA: 5.34
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.353
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
Record 21-22 16-27
R/Game 4.19 4.63 4.42
RA/Game 3.91 5.65 4.42
OPS 0.700 0.751 0.708
wOBA 0.307 0.321 0.306
ERA 3.67 5.61 4.11
FIP 3.45 4.82 3.96
WHIP 1.22 1.59 1.31
K/9 8.71 8.97 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.532 0.410 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.23 6.02 4.09
BP FIP 3.20 5.41 3.90
BP WHIP 1.32 1.62
BP K/9 9.11 8.65
BP Quality* 40.0 63.7 45.0
BP IP 136.3 181.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jayden Murray (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0042 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 0.9918)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 5.7 - HOU 5.3
Simulated Avg: SEA 5.7 - HOU 5.3
Win Probability: SEA 53.3% - HOU 46.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -114 / HOU +114
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.0: 59.2%
Under 9.0: 31.9%
SEA -1.5: 39.6%
HOU +1.5: 60.4%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 1.285 / HOU 1.369
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.889 / HOU 1.400
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 3.2 - HOU 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 3.1 - HOU 3.3
F5 Win Prob: SEA 47.5% - HOU 52.5% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +111 / HOU -111
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -124 -114 -2.1%
HOU ML +106 +114 -1.8%
SEA -1.5 +126 +152 -4.6%
HOU +1.5 -152 -152 +0.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +6.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: J.T. Ginn
ERA: 4.18 ERA: 4.83
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.0 K/9: 9.45
BB/9: 2.61 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 4.24 FIP: 4.38
IP: 42.0 IP: 37.3
xERA: 4.86 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ATH Lg Avg
Record 24-17 21-20
R/Game 4.68 4.39 4.42
RA/Game 4.56 4.59 4.42
OPS 0.706 0.724 0.708
wOBA 0.304 0.311 0.306
ERA 4.24 4.45 4.11
FIP 4.27 4.53 3.96
WHIP 1.36 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.26 8.12 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 4.67 4.09
BP FIP 4.14 4.23 3.90
BP WHIP 1.41 1.44
BP K/9 7.94 8.57
BP Quality* 54.6 49.3 45.0
BP IP 153.0 154.3
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9733 (Temp: 0.9898 | Wind: 0.9833)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.9 - ATH 5.1
Simulated Avg: STL 4.9 - ATH 5.1
Win Probability: STL 47.9% - ATH 52.1%
Fair Moneyline: STL +109 / ATH -109
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
STL -1.5: 33.5%
STL +1.5: 63.0%
ATH -1.5: 37.0%
ATH +1.5: 66.5%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.081 / ATH 1.039
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.213 / ATH 1.096
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.7 - ATH 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.7 - ATH 2.7
F5 Win Prob: STL 50.1% - ATH 49.9% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -100 / ATH +100
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robbie Ray Home: Shohei Ohtani
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 2.54
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 9.2 K/9: 11.59
BB/9: 3.59 BB/9: 1.8
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 1.94
IP: 45.7 IP: 37.0
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 2.53
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.249
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Shohei Ohtani)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
Record 18-24 24-18
R/Game 3.45 4.95 4.42
RA/Game 4.36 3.55 4.42
OPS 0.661 0.772 0.708
wOBA 0.283 0.330 0.306
ERA 3.98 3.48 4.11
FIP 4.06 3.46 3.96
WHIP 1.33 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.10 9.10 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.395 0.648 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.55 3.66 4.09
BP FIP 4.01 2.96 3.90
BP WHIP 1.38 1.22
BP K/9 7.67 9.39
BP Quality* 52.0 42.6 45.0
BP IP 142.0 130.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Peguero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Wyatt Mills (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9800 (Temp: 0.9861 | Wind: 0.9938)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 2.3 - LAD 4.9
Simulated Avg: SF 2.3 - LAD 4.8
Win Probability: SF 23.0% - LAD 77.0%
Fair Moneyline: SF +335 / LAD -335
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 41.1%
Under 7.5: 58.9%
SF +1.5: 40.3%
LAD -1.5: 59.7%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.913 / LAD 0.559
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.156 / LAD 0.947
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.0 - LAD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.0 - LAD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SF 21.9% - LAD 78.1% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +357 / LAD -357
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +205 +335 -9.8%
LAD ML -250 -335 +5.6%
SF +1.5 -110 +148 -12.1%
LAD -1.5 -110 -148 +7.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (Run Line) [-110]
Model: 59.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.83%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00305