2026-05-14
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-14
Games: 11 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chase Dollander Home: Mason Montgomery
ERA: 6.34 ERA: 5.51
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.63
K/9: 7.66 K/9: 12.38
BB/9: 4.45 BB/9: 5.24
FIP: 5.21 FIP: 3.75
IP: 43.0 IP: 15.7
xERA: 5.13 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Mason Montgomery)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL PIT Lg Avg
Record 17-26 23-20
R/Game 4.33 4.95 4.41
RA/Game 5.05 4.33 4.41
OPS 0.718 0.725 0.707
wOBA 0.310 0.316 0.306
ERA 4.77 3.75 4.09
FIP 4.58 3.44 3.96
WHIP 1.41 1.22 1.31
K/9 7.64 8.80 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.430 0.562 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.34 4.14 4.08
BP FIP 3.99 3.70 3.90
BP WHIP 1.33 1.37
BP K/9 8.78 9.04
BP Quality* 47.5 44.5 44.9
BP IP 192.7 165.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Freeman
Tyler Freeman RF OPS: 0.715 (377 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.2% of full strength
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 51°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Cool (51°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9624 (Temp: 0.9744 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.1 - PIT 5.8
Simulated Avg: COL 4.1 - PIT 5.8
Win Probability: COL 34.6% - PIT 65.3%
Fair Moneyline: COL +189 / PIT -189
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 7.5: 69.3%
Under 7.5: 30.7%
COL +1.5: 49.6%
PIT -1.5: 50.4%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.336 / PIT 1.089
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.058 / PIT 0.991
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.4 - PIT 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.4 - PIT 3.5
F5 Win Prob: COL 34.5% - PIT 65.5% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +190 / PIT -190
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +150 +189 -5.4%
PIT ML -178 -189 +1.3%
COL +1.5 -146 +102 -9.7%
PIT -1.5 +122 -102 +5.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +16.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -21.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00306
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Foster Griffin Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 2.12 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.1 K/9: 12.84
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 2.88
IP: 46.7 IP: 47.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH CIN Lg Avg
Record 21-22 22-21
R/Game 5.47 4.07 4.41
RA/Game 5.60 5.00 4.41
OPS 0.738 0.685 0.707
wOBA 0.316 0.298 0.306
ERA 4.77 4.69 4.09
FIP 4.73 4.78 3.96
WHIP 1.42 1.48 1.31
K/9 7.58 7.75 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.407 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.63 4.64 4.08
BP FIP 4.80 4.80 3.90
BP WHIP 1.42 1.54
BP K/9 6.87 8.96
BP Quality* 53.5 54.3 44.9
BP IP 200.3 168.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitchell Parker (44 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, José Tena, Curtis Mead, Keibert Ruiz
Joey Wiemer RF OPS: 0.715 (55 AB)
José Tena DH OPS: 0.669 (152 AB)
Curtis Mead 1B OPS: 0.620 (240 AB)
Keibert Ruiz C OPS: 0.595 (255 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.8% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: TJ Friedl, Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Nathaniel Lowe
TJ Friedl CF OPS: 0.742 (579 AB)
Tyler Stephenson C OPS: 0.737 (299 AB)
Will Benson RF OPS: 0.708 (230 AB)
Nathaniel Lowe DH OPS: 0.688 (540 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0333 (Temp: 0.9873 | Wind: 1.0466)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 5.6 - CIN 4.0
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.6 - CIN 4.0
Win Probability: WSH 63.7% - CIN 36.3%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -176 / CIN +176
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 57.2%
Under 8.0: 32.9%
WSH +1.5: 77.6%
CIN -1.5: 22.4%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 0.785 / CIN 0.825
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.192 / CIN 1.209
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.6 - CIN 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.6 - CIN 1.8
F5 Win Prob: WSH 64.1% - CIN 35.9% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -179 / CIN +179
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +132 -176 +20.6%
CIN ML -156 +176 -24.7%
WSH +1.5 -162 -347 +15.8%
CIN -1.5 +134 +347 -20.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +132 | Edge: 20.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00308
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -162 | Edge: 15.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00309
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Keider Montero Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 4.13 ERA: 2.22
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 7.04 K/9: 10.83
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 4.51 FIP: 2.68
IP: 39.7 IP: 45.3
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 3.53
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYM Lg Avg
Record 19-24 17-25
R/Game 4.16 3.62 4.41
RA/Game 4.28 4.14 4.41
OPS 0.713 0.630 0.707
wOBA 0.312 0.274 0.306
ERA 3.94 3.75 4.09
FIP 3.55 3.38 3.96
WHIP 1.32 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.75 9.48 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.89 3.53 4.08
BP FIP 3.70 3.35 3.90
BP WHIP 1.39 1.27
BP K/9 8.98 9.58
BP Quality* 43.8 41.2 44.9
BP IP 164.3 171.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones, Zack Short, Matt Vierling
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Zack Short SS OPS: 0.671 (50 AB)
Matt Vierling CF OPS: 0.617 (88 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.8% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Slater, Luis Torrens, Vidal Bruján, Tyrone Taylor
Austin Slater RF OPS: 0.642 (148 AB)
Luis Torrens C OPS: 0.629 (261 AB)
Vidal Bruján SS OPS: 0.615 (87 AB)
Tyrone Taylor CF OPS: 0.598 (310 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9850 (Temp: 0.9898 | Wind: 0.9952)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 2.9 - NYM 3.6
Simulated Avg: DET 2.9 - NYM 3.6
Win Probability: DET 40.7% - NYM 59.3%
Fair Moneyline: DET +146 / NYM -146
Avg Total Runs: 6.5
Over 7.5: 34.3%
Under 7.5: 65.7%
DET +1.5: 61.2%
NYM -1.5: 38.8%
Pitcher Adj: DET 1.093 / NYM 0.700
Bullpen Adj: DET 0.976 / NYM 0.918
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 1.4 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.4 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: DET 36.3% - NYM 63.7% (Tie: 20.3%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +176 / NYM -176
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +138 +146 -1.3%
NYM ML -164 -146 -2.8%
DET +1.5 -170 -158 -1.8%
NYM -1.5 +140 +158 -2.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -18.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +13.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00310
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Zebby Matthews
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA MIN Lg Avg
Record 20-23 19-24
R/Game 4.30 4.70 4.41
RA/Game 4.35 5.00 4.41
OPS 0.699 0.708 0.707
wOBA 0.305 0.309 0.306
ERA 4.06 4.57 4.09
FIP 3.73 4.02 3.96
WHIP 1.26 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.60 7.71 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.495 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.31 5.39 4.08
BP FIP 3.35 4.27 3.90
BP WHIP 1.19 1.58
BP K/9 9.44 7.42
BP Quality* 41.8 54.8 44.9
BP IP 149.7 155.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Josh Ekness (B2B, 31 pitches)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Justin Topa (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Josh Bell, Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Tristan Gray
Josh Bell DH OPS: 0.742 (468 AB)
Trevor Larnach LF OPS: 0.727 (503 AB)
Kody Clemens 1B OPS: 0.715 (348 AB)
Tristan Gray 3B OPS: 0.692 (78 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), strong wind in (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9575 (Temp: 1.0054 | Wind: 0.9524)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.7 - MIN 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.7 - MIN 4.2
Win Probability: MIA 54.7% - MIN 45.3%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -121 / MIN +121
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 49.5%
Under 8.5: 50.5%
MIA +1.5: 70.5%
MIN -1.5: 29.5%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.000 / MIN 1.107
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.931 / MIN 1.220
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.5 - MIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.5 - MIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIA 52.9% - MIN 47.0% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -113 / MIN +113
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +108 -121 +6.6%
MIN ML -126 +121 -10.4%
MIA +1.5 -184 -238 +5.7%
MIN -1.5 +152 +238 -10.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Griffin Canning Home: Kyle Harrison
ERA: 3.94 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 8.44 K/9: 9.86
BB/9: 4.17 BB/9: 3.52
FIP: 3.97 FIP: 3.48
IP: 9.3 IP: 33.7
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Kyle Harrison)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
Record 25-17 23-17
R/Game 4.21 5.05 4.41
RA/Game 4.14 3.70 4.41
OPS 0.662 0.690 0.707
wOBA 0.286 0.299 0.306
ERA 4.06 3.43 4.09
FIP 3.47 3.28 3.96
WHIP 1.24 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.78 9.90 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.639 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.60 3.53 4.08
BP FIP 3.03 3.25 3.90
BP WHIP 1.20 1.33
BP K/9 9.35 9.42
BP Quality* 38.0 41.4 44.9
BP IP 172.3 163.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9836 (Temp: 0.9878 | Wind: 0.9958)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 3.7 - MIL 4.7
Simulated Avg: SD 3.7 - MIL 4.7
Win Probability: SD 39.9% - MIL 60.1%
Fair Moneyline: SD +151 / MIL -151
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 44.4%
Under 8.0: 44.7%
SD +1.5: 57.1%
MIL -1.5: 42.9%
Pitcher Adj: SD 0.987 / MIL 0.923
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.846 / MIL 0.922
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.1 - MIL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.1 - MIL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: SD 39.9% - MIL 60.1% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +151 / MIL -151
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +124 +151 -4.8%
MIL ML -146 -151 +0.8%
SD +1.5 -172 -133 -6.2%
MIL -1.5 +142 +133 +1.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luis Castillo Home: Mike Burrows
ERA: 4.23 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.21 K/9: 8.95
BB/9: 2.46 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 3.84 FIP: 3.97
IP: 38.3 IP: 44.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
Record 21-23 17-27
R/Game 4.16 4.61 4.41
RA/Game 3.91 5.59 4.41
OPS 0.700 0.753 0.707
wOBA 0.307 0.321 0.306
ERA 3.63 5.54 4.09
FIP 3.47 4.83 3.96
WHIP 1.23 1.58 1.31
K/9 8.65 8.99 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.528 0.413 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 5.91 4.08
BP FIP 3.20 5.36 3.90
BP WHIP 1.33 1.61
BP K/9 9.06 8.68
BP Quality* 45.8 63.0 44.9
BP IP 140.0 185.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Nick Davila (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0082 (Temp: 1.0232 | Wind: 0.9853)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.8 - HOU 4.7
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.8 - HOU 4.7
Win Probability: SEA 50.7% - HOU 49.3%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -103 / HOU +103
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 46.3%
Under 9.0: 43.7%
SEA -1.5: 35.8%
HOU +1.5: 64.2%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.980 / HOU 1.015
Bullpen Adj: SEA 1.020 / HOU 1.400
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.3 - HOU 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.3 - HOU 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SEA 46.3% - HOU 53.7% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +116 / HOU -116
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -126 -103 -5.0%
HOU ML +108 +103 +1.2%
SEA -1.5 +130 +179 -7.7%
HOU +1.5 -156 -179 +3.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Jacob Lopez
ERA: 3.91 ERA: 4.49
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 5.71 K/9: 10.2
BB/9: 1.91 BB/9: 4.09
FIP: 4.05 FIP: 4.47
IP: 45.3 IP: 35.3
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: STL (Michael McGreevy)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL ATH Lg Avg
Record 24-18 22-20
R/Game 4.62 4.43 4.41
RA/Game 4.60 4.52 4.41
OPS 0.708 0.731 0.707
wOBA 0.305 0.313 0.306
ERA 4.29 4.37 4.09
FIP 4.30 4.47 3.96
WHIP 1.38 1.45 1.31
K/9 7.25 8.07 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 4.63 4.08
BP FIP 4.19 4.17 3.90
BP WHIP 1.41 1.44
BP K/9 7.85 8.58
BP Quality* 48.9 48.9 44.9
BP IP 156.0 157.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9840 (Temp: 1.0026 | Wind: 0.9815)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.8 - ATH 4.8
Simulated Avg: STL 4.8 - ATH 4.8
Win Probability: STL 49.6% - ATH 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL +102 / ATH -102
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
STL -1.5: 34.7%
STL +1.5: 64.9%
ATH -1.5: 35.1%
ATH +1.5: 65.3%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.035 / ATH 1.023
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.089 / ATH 1.089
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.6 - ATH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.6 - ATH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: STL 50.8% - ATH 49.2% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -103 / ATH +103
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 4.34 ERA: 3.11
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 10.85 K/9: 8.39
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 2.2
FIP: 2.81 FIP: 3.09
IP: 43.7 IP: 39.0
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 3.16
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI BOS Lg Avg
Record 20-23 18-24
R/Game 4.02 3.81 4.41
RA/Game 4.79 4.07 4.41
OPS 0.689 0.667 0.707
wOBA 0.298 0.294 0.306
ERA 4.44 3.88 4.09
FIP 3.42 4.11 3.96
WHIP 1.39 1.27 1.31
K/9 9.60 8.17 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.421 0.470 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.96 3.22 4.08
BP FIP 3.17 3.86 3.90
BP WHIP 1.33 1.21
BP K/9 9.60 8.45
BP Quality* 40.8 40.8 44.9
BP IP 161.3 165.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 55°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 90%
Conditions: Cool (55°F), light wind (4 mph) | Rain likely (90%)
Weather Factor: 0.9722 (Temp: 0.9795 | Wind: 0.9925)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.3 - BOS 3.4
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.3 - BOS 3.4
Win Probability: PHI 48.5% - BOS 51.5%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +106 / BOS -106
Avg Total Runs: 6.7
Over 7.5: 36.4%
Under 7.5: 63.6%
PHI -1.5: 29.8%
BOS +1.5: 70.2%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.825 / BOS 0.763
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.909 / BOS 0.909
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 1.7 - BOS 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.7 - BOS 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 48.3% - BOS 51.7% (Tie: 20.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +107 / BOS -107
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -112 +106 -4.3%
BOS ML -104 -106 +0.5%
PHI -1.5 +152 +235 -9.8%
BOS +1.5 -184 -235 +5.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -16.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +11.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00311
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ben Brown Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 5.8 ERA: 2.49
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 10.18 K/9: 11.47
BB/9: 2.71 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 2.55
IP: 29.7 IP: 49.0
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 2.87
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.265
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC ATL Lg Avg
Record 27-16 30-13
R/Game 5.07 5.51 4.41
RA/Game 4.12 3.35 4.41
OPS 0.748 0.787 0.707
wOBA 0.324 0.336 0.306
ERA 3.86 3.06 4.09
FIP 4.14 3.74 3.96
WHIP 1.20 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.22 8.91 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.594 0.713 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 3.10 4.08
BP FIP 4.32 3.28 3.90
BP WHIP 1.26 1.10
BP K/9 7.97 9.18
BP Quality* 45.6 39.7 44.9
BP IP 153.7 151.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0285 (Temp: 0.9947 | Wind: 1.0340)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 3.9 - ATL 6.4
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.9 - ATL 6.4
Win Probability: CHC 28.3% - ATL 71.7%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +254 / ATL -254
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 7.5: 71.3%
Under 7.5: 28.7%
CHC +1.5: 42.3%
ATL -1.5: 57.7%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.133 / ATL 0.647
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.016 / ATL 0.884
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 1.9 - ATL 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.9 - ATL 3.7
F5 Win Prob: CHC 24.7% - ATL 75.3% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +304 / ATL -304
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML +144 +254 -12.7%
ATL ML -172 -254 +8.5%
CHC +1.5 -152 +137 -18.0%
ATL -1.5 +126 -137 +13.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +18.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -23.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 18.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00312
[HMC] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +126 | Edge: 13.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00313
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kris Bubic Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 2.77 ERA: 4.89
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.57
K/9: 9.01 K/9: 6.43
BB/9: 3.35 BB/9: 4.37
FIP: 2.92 FIP: 5.36
IP: 46.3 IP: 35.0
xERA: 3.16 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.278 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: KC (Kris Bubic)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
Record 19-24 21-21
R/Game 4.16 4.36 4.41
RA/Game 4.53 4.64 4.41
OPS 0.711 0.719 0.707
wOBA 0.308 0.308 0.306
ERA 4.38 4.27 4.09
FIP 4.28 4.25 3.96
WHIP 1.37 1.36 1.31
K/9 8.66 8.14 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.71 4.53 4.08
BP FIP 4.68 4.31 3.90
BP WHIP 1.45 1.44
BP K/9 8.73 8.24
BP Quality* 51.7 50.9 44.9
BP IP 145.3 186.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 55°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (55°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9811 (Temp: 0.9795 | Wind: 1.0016)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.8 - CWS 3.9
Simulated Avg: KC 4.8 - CWS 3.9
Win Probability: KC 58.8% - CWS 41.2%
Fair Moneyline: KC -142 / CWS +142
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 48.8%
Under 8.0: 40.7%
KC -1.5: 42.8%
CWS +1.5: 57.2%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.725 / CWS 1.265
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.151 / CWS 1.134
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.8 - CWS 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.8 - CWS 1.8
F5 Win Prob: KC 68.4% - CWS 31.6% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -217 / CWS +217
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML -138 -142 +0.8%
CWS ML +118 +142 -4.6%
KC -1.5 +126 +134 -1.5%
CWS +1.5 -152 -134 -3.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Landen Roupp Home: Emmet Sheehan
ERA: 3.64 ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 9.04 K/9: 10.91
BB/9: 3.83 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 2.99
IP: 43.7 IP: 35.7
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Emmet Sheehan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
Record 18-25 25-18
R/Game 3.37 4.93 4.41
RA/Game 4.35 3.47 4.41
OPS 0.656 0.775 0.707
wOBA 0.282 0.331 0.306
ERA 3.97 3.40 4.09
FIP 4.13 3.41 3.96
WHIP 1.33 1.13 1.31
K/9 7.98 9.12 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.386 0.656 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 3.60 4.08
BP FIP 4.01 2.93 3.90
BP WHIP 1.37 1.22
BP K/9 7.49 9.39
BP Quality* 48.7 40.7 44.9
BP IP 145.3 132.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Peguero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tristan Beck (36 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9821 (Temp: 0.9868 | Wind: 0.9953)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 2.5 - LAD 4.7
Simulated Avg: SF 2.6 - LAD 4.7
Win Probability: SF 26.5% - LAD 73.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +277 / LAD -277
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 8.5: 32.8%
Under 8.5: 67.2%
SF +1.5: 44.4%
LAD -1.5: 55.6%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.925 / LAD 0.745
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.085 / LAD 0.906
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.3 - LAD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.3 - LAD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SF 28.3% - LAD 71.7% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +253 / LAD -253
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +146 +277 -14.1%
LAD ML -174 -277 +10.0%
SF +1.5 -138 +125 -13.6%
LAD -1.5 +116 -125 +9.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -19.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +14.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (Run Line) [+116]
Model: 55.6% | Market: 46.3% | Edge: 9.3%
Fair ML: -125 | Kelly: 4.32%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00316
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00315