2026-05-15
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-15
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Aaron Nola Home: Braxton Ashcraft
ERA: 5.81 ERA: 2.72
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 9.29 K/9: 9.23
BB/9: 2.79 BB/9: 2.98
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 2.72
IP: 42.0 IP: 48.7
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI PIT Lg Avg
Record 21-23 24-20
R/Game 4.00 5.00 4.41
RA/Game 4.70 4.27 4.41
OPS 0.687 0.728 0.707
wOBA 0.297 0.317 0.306
ERA 4.36 3.71 4.10
FIP 3.38 3.43 3.96
WHIP 1.38 1.22 1.31
K/9 9.61 8.76 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.426 0.571 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.94 4.05 4.07
BP FIP 3.12 3.70 3.90
BP WHIP 1.33 1.35
BP K/9 9.75 8.83
BP Quality* 44.9 47.1 44.9
BP IP 164.3 173.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Keller (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (76 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9824 (Temp: 0.9952 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.2 - PIT 5.3
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.2 - PIT 5.3
Win Probability: PHI 29.9% - PIT 70.1%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +234 / PIT -234
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.1%
Under 8.0: 43.4%
PHI +1.5: 46.3%
PIT -1.5: 53.7%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 1.133 / PIT 0.724
Bullpen Adj: PHI 1.000 / PIT 1.049
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 1.5 - PIT 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.5 - PIT 3.1
F5 Win Prob: PHI 24.7% - PIT 75.3% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +304 / PIT -304
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +116 +234 -16.4%
PIT ML -134 -234 +12.8%
PHI +1.5 -178 +116 -17.7%
PIT -1.5 +146 -116 +13.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -134 | Edge: 12.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00317
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +146 | Edge: 13.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00318
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Baz Home: Zack Littell
ERA: 5.01 ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.11 K/9: 5.98
BB/9: 3.55 BB/9: 1.78
FIP: 4.16 FIP: 5.23
IP: 44.3 IP: 36.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL WSH Lg Avg
Record 20-24 21-23
R/Game 4.39 5.36 4.41
RA/Game 5.23 5.82 4.41
OPS 0.693 0.731 0.707
wOBA 0.303 0.313 0.306
ERA 4.60 5.01 4.10
FIP 4.24 4.82 3.96
WHIP 1.43 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.44 7.63 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.420 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 4.81 4.07
BP FIP 3.89 4.89 3.90
BP WHIP 1.31 1.44
BP K/9 8.86 6.84
BP Quality* 46.1 54.6 44.9
BP IP 171.7 204.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zak Kent (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0091 (Temp: 0.9990 | Wind: 1.0101)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 5.0 - WSH 5.6
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.0 - WSH 5.6
Win Probability: BAL 44.4% - WSH 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +125 / WSH -125
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.5: 55.6%
Under 9.5: 44.4%
BAL -1.5: 30.9%
WSH +1.5: 69.0%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.043 / WSH 1.142
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.027 / WSH 1.216
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.7 - WSH 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.7 - WSH 3.1
F5 Win Prob: BAL 44.8% - WSH 55.2% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +123 / WSH -123
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -144 +125 -14.7%
WSH ML +122 -125 +10.6%
BAL -1.5 +114 +223 -15.8%
WSH +1.5 -137 -223 +11.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +3.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -8.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +122 | Edge: 10.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00319
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -137 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00320
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trey Yesavage Home: Ty Madden
ERA: 0.68 ERA: 2.45
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 0.73
K/9: 10.13 K/9: 9.82
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 1.64
FIP: 1.97 FIP: 2.65
IP: 13.3 IP: 11.0
xERA: 4.1 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Trey Yesavage)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR DET Lg Avg
Record 19-24 19-25
R/Game 4.19 4.16 4.41
RA/Game 4.51 4.39 4.41
OPS 0.686 0.713 0.707
wOBA 0.296 0.312 0.306
ERA 4.13 4.07 4.10
FIP 3.60 3.73 3.96
WHIP 1.30 1.33 1.31
K/9 9.10 8.61 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 4.08 4.07
BP FIP 3.43 3.95 3.90
BP WHIP 1.32 1.41
BP K/9 9.76 8.80
BP Quality* 47.1 50.2 44.9
BP IP 178.0 167.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enmanuel De Jesus (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ricky Vanasco (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9682 (Temp: 0.9950 | Wind: 0.9731)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.7 - DET 3.4
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.7 - DET 3.4
Win Probability: TOR 54.0% - DET 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -117 / DET +117
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 8.0: 30.4%
Under 8.0: 58.8%
TOR -1.5: 35.6%
DET +1.5: 64.4%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.671 / DET 0.835
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.049 / DET 1.118
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.8 - DET 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.8 - DET 1.5
F5 Win Prob: TOR 57.9% - DET 42.1% (Tie: 21.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -137 / DET +137
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -124 -117 -1.4%
DET ML +106 +117 -2.5%
TOR -1.5 +140 +181 -6.1%
DET +1.5 -170 -181 +1.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -22.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +6.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 3.28 ERA: 4.22
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 7.64 K/9: 8.24
BB/9: 2.73 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 4.18
IP: 46.3 IP: 45.3
xERA: 3.56 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Andrew Abbott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CLE Lg Avg
Record 23-21 24-21
R/Game 4.32 4.16 4.41
RA/Game 4.91 4.07 4.41
OPS 0.699 0.687 0.707
wOBA 0.304 0.300 0.306
ERA 4.61 3.81 4.10
FIP 4.72 3.88 3.96
WHIP 1.46 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.81 9.51 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.442 0.510 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.61 3.95 4.07
BP FIP 4.75 3.77 3.90
BP WHIP 1.53 1.28
BP K/9 8.97 10.14
BP Quality* 58.3 46.0 44.9
BP IP 171.7 152.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9806 (Temp: 0.9920 | Wind: 0.9886)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.0 - CLE 4.2
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.0 - CLE 4.2
Win Probability: CIN 47.5% - CLE 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +111 / CLE -111
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 42.7%
Under 8.0: 46.8%
CIN +1.5: 64.7%
CLE -1.5: 35.3%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.873 / CLE 0.976
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.298 / CLE 1.024
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.2 - CLE 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.2 - CLE 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CIN 54.5% - CLE 45.5% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -120 / CLE +120
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +114 +111 +0.8%
CLE ML -134 -111 -4.7%
CIN +1.5 -196 -184 -1.5%
CLE -1.5 +162 +184 -2.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Janson Junk Home: Jesse Scholtens
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 3.29
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 6.39 K/9: 6.91
BB/9: 1.28 BB/9: 3.29
FIP: 3.11 FIP: 4.57
IP: 44.3 IP: 27.3
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 3.19
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.279
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Janson Junk)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA TB Lg Avg
Record 20-24 28-14
R/Game 4.23 4.50 4.41
RA/Game 4.45 3.98 4.41
OPS 0.693 0.705 0.707
wOBA 0.303 0.305 0.306
ERA 4.17 3.49 4.10
FIP 3.72 3.93 3.96
WHIP 1.27 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.59 7.77 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.556 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 4.18 4.07
BP FIP 3.30 4.36 3.90
BP WHIP 1.18 1.29
BP K/9 9.27 7.99
BP Quality* 43.1 51.6 44.9
BP IP 156.3 165.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.8 - TB 4.1
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.8 - TB 4.1
Win Probability: MIA 46.6% - TB 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +114 / TB -114
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 40.0%
Under 8.0: 49.3%
MIA +1.5: 64.3%
TB -1.5: 35.7%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 0.925 / TB 0.832
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.960 / TB 1.149
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - TB 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - TB 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIA 43.0% - TB 57.0% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +133 / TB -133
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML -102 +114 -3.9%
TB ML -116 -114 -0.3%
MIA +1.5 -200 -180 -2.4%
TB -1.5 +164 +180 -2.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Joe Ryan
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL MIN Lg Avg
Record 24-17 20-24
R/Game 5.10 4.80 4.41
RA/Game 3.63 4.91 4.41
OPS 0.695 0.710 0.707
wOBA 0.301 0.310 0.306
ERA 3.35 4.49 4.10
FIP 3.25 3.98 3.96
WHIP 1.23 1.36 1.31
K/9 9.90 7.72 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.650 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 5.38 4.07
BP FIP 3.26 4.26 3.90
BP WHIP 1.33 1.58
BP K/9 9.36 7.49
BP Quality* 42.7 54.8 44.9
BP IP 167.3 157.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brian Fitzpatrick (35 pitches yesterday)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kendry Rojas (41 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0213 (Temp: 1.0164 | Wind: 1.0049)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.1 - MIN 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.1 - MIN 4.9
Win Probability: MIL 51.2% - MIN 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -105 / MIN +105
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 60.5%
Under 8.5: 39.5%
MIL -1.5: 37.0%
MIN +1.5: 63.0%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 1.000 / MIN 0.825
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.951 / MIN 1.220
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.4 - MIN 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.4 - MIN 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIL 43.4% - MIN 56.6% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +130 / MIN -130
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -108 -105 -0.7%
MIN ML -108 +105 -3.2%
MIL -1.5 +146 +170 -3.6%
MIN +1.5 -178 -170 -1.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.1%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.27%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00321
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Connelly Early Home: Spencer Strider
ERA: 3.16 ERA: 4.36
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 8.23 K/9: 9.64
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 3.84
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 4.28
IP: 42.7 IP: 9.3
xERA: 2.35 xERA: 4.93
xwOBA: 0.24 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS ATL Lg Avg
Record 18-25 30-14
R/Game 3.74 5.39 4.41
RA/Game 4.05 3.32 4.41
OPS 0.667 0.779 0.707
wOBA 0.293 0.333 0.306
ERA 3.83 3.02 4.10
FIP 4.05 3.73 3.96
WHIP 1.26 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.31 8.93 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.708 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.25 3.10 4.07
BP FIP 3.85 3.35 3.90
BP WHIP 1.21 1.09
BP K/9 8.59 9.12
BP Quality* 46.8 41.4 44.9
BP IP 168.7 154.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tyler Samaniego (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zack Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reynaldo López (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9901 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.1 - ATL 5.0
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.2 - ATL 5.0
Win Probability: BOS 31.6% - ATL 68.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +216 / ATL -216
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 41.7%
Under 8.0: 47.7%
BOS +1.5: 48.5%
ATL -1.5: 51.5%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.789 / ATL 0.802
Bullpen Adj: BOS 1.042 / ATL 0.922
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.7 - ATL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.7 - ATL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BOS 36.2% - ATL 63.8% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +176 / ATL -176
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +130 +216 -11.9%
ATL ML -154 -216 +7.8%
BOS +1.5 -166 +106 -13.9%
ATL -1.5 +138 -106 +9.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line) [+138]
Model: 51.5% | Market: 42.0% | Edge: 9.4%
Fair ML: -106 | Kelly: 4.08%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00322
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Clay Holmes
ERA: 2.55 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 10.26 K/9: 6.98
BB/9: 3.23 BB/9: 3.45
FIP: 3.02 FIP: 3.73
IP: 53.3 IP: 48.3
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY NYM Lg Avg
Record 27-17 18-25
R/Game 5.07 3.74 4.41
RA/Game 3.50 4.14 4.41
OPS 0.763 0.641 0.707
wOBA 0.326 0.279 0.306
ERA 3.22 3.75 4.10
FIP 3.32 3.42 3.96
WHIP 1.15 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.88 9.47 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.663 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 3.54 4.07
BP FIP 3.57 3.40 3.90
BP WHIP 1.25 1.26
BP K/9 8.74 9.57
BP Quality* 40.1 41.3 44.9
BP IP 148.3 173.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9817 (Temp: 0.9876 | Wind: 0.9940)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.4 - NYM 3.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.4 - NYM 3.0
Win Probability: NYY 64.6% - NYM 35.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -183 / NYM +183
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 44.5%
Under 7.5: 55.5%
NYY -1.5: 46.4%
NYM +1.5: 53.6%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.800 / NYM 0.926
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.893 / NYM 0.920
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.5 - NYM 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - NYM 1.6
F5 Win Prob: NYY 65.8% - NYM 34.2% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -193 / NYM +193
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -154 -183 +4.0%
NYM ML +130 +183 -8.1%
NYY -1.5 +116 +116 +0.1%
NYM +1.5 -140 -116 -4.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -7.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Edward Cabrera Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 3.61 ERA: 4.13
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 9.48 K/9: 8.64
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 3.85
FIP: 3.71 FIP: 4.56
IP: 46.3 IP: 44.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Edward Cabrera)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC CWS Lg Avg
Record 28-16 22-21
R/Game 5.00 4.40 4.41
RA/Game 4.02 4.58 4.41
OPS 0.743 0.721 0.707
wOBA 0.322 0.309 0.306
ERA 3.77 4.22 4.10
FIP 4.06 4.22 3.96
WHIP 1.19 1.35 1.31
K/9 8.33 8.06 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.598 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 4.46 4.07
BP FIP 4.20 4.28 3.90
BP WHIP 1.24 1.42
BP K/9 8.05 8.16
BP Quality* 47.4 54.8 44.9
BP IP 158.7 189.7
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Sean Newcomb (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9673 (Temp: 0.9975 | Wind: 0.9698)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.5 - CWS 4.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.5 - CWS 4.2
Win Probability: CHC 61.2% - CWS 38.8%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -158 / CWS +158
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.5%
Under 8.5: 42.5%
CHC -1.5: 46.4%
CWS +1.5: 53.6%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 0.927 / CWS 1.120
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.056 / CWS 1.220
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.0 - CWS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.0 - CWS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CHC 61.6% - CWS 38.4% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -160 / CWS +160
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -146 -158 +1.9%
CWS ML +124 +158 -5.8%
CHC -1.5 +110 +116 -1.2%
CWS +1.5 -132 -116 -3.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jack Leiter Home: Spencer Arrighetti
ERA: 4.09 ERA: 4.85
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 9.14 K/9: 8.12
BB/9: 3.94 BB/9: 5.13
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 4.96
IP: 42.7 IP: 28.7
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 5.44
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.356
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jack Leiter)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
Record 21-22 17-28
R/Game 3.77 4.58 4.41
RA/Game 3.77 5.64 4.41
OPS 0.684 0.748 0.707
wOBA 0.298 0.320 0.306
ERA 3.63 5.59 4.10
FIP 3.84 4.86 3.96
WHIP 1.23 1.58 1.31
K/9 8.70 8.92 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.405 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.07 5.86 4.07
BP FIP 3.78 5.33 3.90
BP WHIP 1.25 1.61
BP K/9 7.40 8.62
BP Quality* 42.2 61.2 44.9
BP IP 149.7 189.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cody Bolton (56 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9758 (Temp: 1.0052 | Wind: 0.9707)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.8 - HOU 4.5
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.8 - HOU 4.5
Win Probability: TEX 52.2% - HOU 47.8%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -109 / HOU +109
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.1%
Under 8.5: 46.9%
TEX -1.5: 37.0%
HOU +1.5: 63.1%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 1.025 / HOU 1.291
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.940 / HOU 1.363
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.6 - HOU 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.6 - HOU 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TEX 50.5% - HOU 49.5% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -102 / HOU +102
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -108 -109 +0.3%
HOU ML -108 +109 -4.2%
TEX -1.5 +150 +171 -3.1%
HOU +1.5 -182 -171 -1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Wacha Home: Dustin May
ERA: 3.58 ERA: 4.93
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 8.0
BB/9: 2.49 BB/9: 3.47
FIP: 3.59 FIP: 4.35
IP: 51.3 IP: 42.7
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 5.2
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: KC (Michael Wacha)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC STL Lg Avg
Record 19-25 25-18
R/Game 4.11 4.63 4.41
RA/Game 4.57 4.58 4.41
OPS 0.708 0.711 0.707
wOBA 0.307 0.306 0.306
ERA 4.43 4.29 4.10
FIP 4.29 4.32 3.96
WHIP 1.38 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.64 7.27 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.452 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.64 4.70 4.07
BP FIP 4.64 4.23 3.90
BP WHIP 1.45 1.43
BP K/9 8.68 7.98
BP Quality* 54.3 55.5 44.9
BP IP 149.3 159.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luinder Avila (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0013 (Temp: 1.0115 | Wind: 0.9899)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.8 - STL 4.9
Simulated Avg: KC 4.8 - STL 4.9
Win Probability: KC 49.0% - STL 51.0%
Fair Moneyline: KC +104 / STL -104
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.0%
Under 8.5: 43.0%
KC +1.5: 64.3%
STL -1.5: 35.7%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.924 / STL 1.169
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.209 / STL 1.236
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.6 - STL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.6 - STL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 53.9% - STL 46.1% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -117 / STL +117
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML -106 +104 -2.5%
STL ML -110 -104 -1.3%
KC +1.5 -188 -180 -1.0%
STL -1.5 +155 +180 -3.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 4.11 ERA: 5.15
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 7.99 K/9: 7.12
BB/9: 2.9 BB/9: 2.15
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 4.21
IP: 26.0 IP: 30.0
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
Record 20-22 17-27
R/Game 4.26 4.27 4.41
RA/Game 4.86 5.09 4.41
OPS 0.686 0.714 0.707
wOBA 0.295 0.309 0.306
ERA 4.50 4.83 4.10
FIP 4.22 4.57 3.96
WHIP 1.29 1.42 1.31
K/9 7.66 7.64 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.421 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 4.37 4.07
BP FIP 3.82 3.92 3.90
BP WHIP 1.17 1.33
BP K/9 8.03 8.79
BP Quality* 44.2 51.7 44.9
BP IP 148.0 199.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Gordon (69 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0054 (Temp: 1.0121 | Wind: 0.9933)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 5.5 - COL 5.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 5.5 - COL 5.2
Win Probability: ARI 52.8% - COL 47.2%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -112 / COL +112
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 11.5: 39.3%
Under 11.5: 60.7%
ARI -1.5: 38.9%
COL +1.5: 61.1%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.060 / COL 1.148
Bullpen Adj: ARI 0.984 / COL 1.151
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 3.1 - COL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.1 - COL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ARI 52.6% - COL 47.4% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -111 / COL +111
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -120 -112 -1.7%
COL ML +102 +112 -2.3%
ARI -1.5 +126 +157 -5.3%
COL +1.5 -152 -157 +0.8%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -13.1%
U 11.5 -110 N/A +8.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 11.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: -154 | Kelly: 4.36%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00323
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Blake Snell Home: Jack Kochanowicz
ERA: 2.63 ERA: 6.16
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.66
K/9: 10.7 K/9: 5.87
BB/9: 3.88 BB/9: 4.67
FIP: 2.63 FIP: 5.38
IP: 3.0 IP: 45.3
xERA: 3.28 xERA: 5.88
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.368
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD LAA Lg Avg
Record 26-18 16-28
R/Game 4.93 4.16 4.41
RA/Game 3.43 4.89 4.41
OPS 0.775 0.705 0.707
wOBA 0.331 0.306 0.306
ERA 3.36 4.55 4.10
FIP 3.41 4.10 3.96
WHIP 1.12 1.43 1.31
K/9 9.14 8.71 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.660 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.52 5.27 4.07
BP FIP 2.90 4.58 3.90
BP WHIP 1.20 1.52
BP K/9 9.44 8.84
BP Quality* 40.2 53.6 44.9
BP IP 135.3 164.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9714 (Temp: 0.9922 | Wind: 0.9790)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 6.2 - LAA 3.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.2 - LAA 3.5
Win Probability: LAD 74.2% - LAA 25.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -288 / LAA +288
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 47.3%
Under 9.0: 42.8%
LAD -1.5: 60.3%
LAA +1.5: 39.7%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.784 / LAA 1.402
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.895 / LAA 1.194
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.7 - LAA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.7 - LAA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: LAD 77.1% - LAA 22.9% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -336 / LAA +336
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -230 -288 +4.5%
LAA ML +190 +288 -8.7%
LAD -1.5 -134 -152 +3.1%
LAA +1.5 +112 +152 -7.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Randy Vásquez Home: Emerson Hancock
ERA: 3.66 ERA: 4.51
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 6.0 K/9: 7.09
BB/9: 3.3 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 4.34 FIP: 4.62
IP: 44.3 IP: 47.7
xERA: 5.37 xERA: 5.51
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.358
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SEA Lg Avg
Record 25-18 22-23
R/Game 4.14 4.24 4.41
RA/Game 4.21 3.89 4.41
OPS 0.659 0.708 0.707
wOBA 0.285 0.310 0.306
ERA 4.14 3.62 4.10
FIP 3.46 3.49 3.96
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.86 8.63 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.540 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.53 3.08 4.07
BP FIP 2.98 3.21 3.90
BP WHIP 1.20 1.32
BP K/9 9.47 8.98
BP Quality* 42.0 44.1 44.9
BP IP 178.7 143.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Matt Waldron (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (52 pitches yesterday)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Nick Davila (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Domingo Gonzalez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 51°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 46%
Conditions: Cool (51°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9515 (Temp: 0.9744 | Wind: 0.9764)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.0 - SEA 4.0
Simulated Avg: SD 4.0 - SEA 4.0
Win Probability: SD 49.7% - SEA 50.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD +101 / SEA -101
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.0: 51.3%
Under 7.0: 37.2%
SD +1.5: 67.0%
SEA -1.5: 33.0%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.105 / SEA 1.196
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.935 / SEA 0.982
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.4 - SEA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.4 - SEA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SD 51.5% - SEA 48.5% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -106 / SEA +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +118 +101 +3.8%
SEA ML -138 -101 -7.7%
SD +1.5 -188 -203 +1.7%
SEA -1.5 +155 +203 -6.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -1.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Aaron Civale
ERA: 2.87 ERA: 4.33
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.36 K/9: 7.62
BB/9: 3.31 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 3.72 FIP: 4.22
IP: 41.7 IP: 41.7
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: SF (Tyler Mahle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF ATH Lg Avg
Record 18-26 22-21
R/Game 3.34 4.42 4.41
RA/Game 4.36 4.53 4.41
OPS 0.650 0.734 0.707
wOBA 0.279 0.314 0.306
ERA 4.00 4.36 4.10
FIP 4.12 4.51 3.96
WHIP 1.33 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.03 7.98 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.380 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 4.63 4.07
BP FIP 4.01 4.12 3.90
BP WHIP 1.37 1.43
BP K/9 7.48 8.48
BP Quality* 47.2 56.1 44.9
BP IP 148.0 161.3
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Peguero (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Barlow (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Perkins (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9907 (Temp: 0.9982 | Wind: 0.9925)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.7 - ATH 4.4
Simulated Avg: SF 3.7 - ATH 4.4
Win Probability: SF 42.5% - ATH 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +135 / ATH -135
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
SF -1.5: 26.2%
SF +1.5: 60.2%
ATH -1.5: 39.8%
ATH +1.5: 73.8%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.900 / ATH 1.026
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.051 / ATH 1.249
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.9 - ATH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.9 - ATH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 44.0% - ATH 56.0% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +127 / ATH -127
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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