2026-05-16
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-16
Games: 15 | Plays: 11
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mason Fluharty Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 4.47 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 9.62 K/9: 8.7
BB/9: 4.1 BB/9: 2.34
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 3.61
IP: 15.0 IP: 31.0
xERA: 3.31 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.284 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR DET Lg Avg
Record 19-25 20-25
R/Game 4.14 4.13 4.40
RA/Game 4.48 4.33 4.40
OPS 0.683 0.712 0.707
wOBA 0.295 0.311 0.306
ERA 4.10 4.02 4.08
FIP 3.58 3.70 3.95
WHIP 1.31 1.32 1.31
K/9 9.11 8.55 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.478 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 3.94 4.04
BP FIP 3.43 3.89 3.88
BP WHIP 1.33 1.38
BP K/9 9.76 8.66
BP Quality* 44.1 47.8 44.7
BP IP 180.7 175.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Myles Straw
Davis Schneider LF OPS: 0.797 (188 AB)
Ernie Clement 2B OPS: 0.711 (545 AB)
Myles Straw RF OPS: 0.680 (267 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.5% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones, Colt Keith, Zack Short
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Colt Keith 3B OPS: 0.746 (414 AB)
Zack Short SS OPS: 0.671 (50 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9721 (Temp: 1.0005 | Wind: 0.9716)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.6 - DET 3.8
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.6 - DET 3.8
Win Probability: TOR 47.0% - DET 53.0%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +113 / DET -113
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.5: 34.0%
Under 8.5: 66.0%
TOR +1.5: 65.2%
DET -1.5: 34.8%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 1.041 / DET 0.895
Bullpen Adj: TOR 0.987 / DET 1.069
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.9 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.9 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TOR 44.6% - DET 55.4% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +124 / DET -124
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -104 +113 -4.0%
DET ML -112 -113 +0.2%
TOR +1.5 -200 -188 -1.4%
DET -1.5 +164 +188 -3.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -18.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +13.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00324
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Noah Cameron Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 3.5 ERA: 3.35
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.55 K/9: 7.97
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 3.09
FIP: 4.12 FIP: 3.38
IP: 35.7 IP: 39.7
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC STL Lg Avg
Record 19-26 26-18
R/Game 4.11 4.64 4.40
RA/Game 4.58 4.57 4.40
OPS 0.703 0.717 0.707
wOBA 0.305 0.308 0.306
ERA 4.38 4.24 4.08
FIP 4.31 4.30 3.95
WHIP 1.38 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.66 7.23 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.451 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.55 4.04
BP FIP 4.59 4.20 3.88
BP WHIP 1.47 1.42
BP K/9 8.77 7.96
BP Quality* 56.7 56.3 44.7
BP IP 154.0 164.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0083 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 1.0042)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.2 - STL 5.2
Simulated Avg: KC 4.2 - STL 5.1
Win Probability: KC 41.6% - STL 58.4%
Fair Moneyline: KC +141 / STL -141
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 44.5%
Under 9.0: 45.7%
KC +1.5: 57.5%
STL -1.5: 42.5%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.968 / STL 0.916
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.268 / STL 1.260
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.1 - STL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.1 - STL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: KC 42.6% - STL 57.4% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +135 / STL -135
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +100 +141 -8.4%
STL ML -118 -141 +4.3%
KC +1.5 -194 -135 -8.5%
STL -1.5 +160 +135 +4.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 4.39 ERA: 4.51
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 7.85 K/9: 5.87
BB/9: 3.64 BB/9: 2.18
FIP: 4.44 FIP: 5.27
IP: 48.0 IP: 42.0
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 5.81
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.366
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
Record 21-22 17-28
R/Game 4.37 4.20 4.40
RA/Game 4.77 5.18 4.40
OPS 0.690 0.708 0.707
wOBA 0.297 0.306 0.306
ERA 4.35 4.93 4.08
FIP 4.21 4.55 3.95
WHIP 1.27 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.55 7.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.405 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 4.35 4.04
BP FIP 3.82 3.89 3.88
BP WHIP 1.17 1.33
BP K/9 8.03 8.65
BP Quality* 44.2 48.6 44.7
BP IP 148.0 205.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (57 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0115 (Temp: 1.0121 | Wind: 0.9994)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 6.0 - COL 5.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 6.0 - COL 5.2
Win Probability: ARI 56.3% - COL 43.7%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -129 / COL +129
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 11.0: 43.7%
Under 11.0: 47.9%
ARI -1.5: 42.7%
COL +1.5: 57.3%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.091 / COL 1.291
Bullpen Adj: ARI 0.989 / COL 1.087
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 3.6 - COL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.6 - COL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ARI 57.8% - COL 42.2% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -137 / COL +137
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -142 -129 -2.4%
COL ML +120 +129 -1.8%
ARI -1.5 +108 +134 -5.4%
COL +1.5 -130 -134 +0.8%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -4.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Bassitt Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.51
K/9: 8.25 K/9: 8.02
BB/9: 3.05 BB/9: 3.09
FIP: 3.84 FIP: 3.82
IP: 38.0 IP: 40.3
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL WSH Lg Avg
Record 20-25 22-23
R/Game 4.33 5.31 4.40
RA/Game 5.18 5.73 4.40
OPS 0.690 0.729 0.707
wOBA 0.302 0.312 0.306
ERA 4.58 4.95 4.08
FIP 4.25 4.77 3.95
WHIP 1.42 1.43 1.31
K/9 8.38 7.69 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.419 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 4.80 4.04
BP FIP 3.87 4.83 3.88
BP WHIP 1.30 1.44
BP K/9 8.86 7.01
BP Quality* 44.3 57.3 44.7
BP IP 172.7 208.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Richard Lovelady (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gus Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Alvarez (48 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9886 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 0.9691)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.5 - WSH 5.2
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.5 - WSH 5.2
Win Probability: BAL 43.9% - WSH 56.1%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +128 / WSH -128
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 10.0: 38.8%
Under 10.0: 51.7%
BAL -1.5: 29.7%
WSH +1.5: 70.3%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 0.991 / WSH 0.986
Bullpen Adj: BAL 0.991 / WSH 1.282
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.3 - WSH 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.3 - WSH 2.9
F5 Win Prob: BAL 40.2% - WSH 59.8% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +149 / WSH -149
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -108 +128 -8.0%
WSH ML -108 -128 +4.1%
BAL -1.5 +146 +237 -11.0%
WSH +1.5 -176 -237 +6.6%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -13.5%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -0.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 2.4 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 9.82 K/9: 8.66
BB/9: 2.04 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 2.36 FIP: 3.04
IP: 55.3 IP: 39.0
xERA: 3.02 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI PIT Lg Avg
Record 22-23 24-21
R/Game 4.16 5.09 4.40
RA/Game 4.80 4.42 4.40
OPS 0.692 0.732 0.707
wOBA 0.300 0.318 0.306
ERA 4.41 3.81 4.08
FIP 3.44 3.47 3.95
WHIP 1.39 1.22 1.31
K/9 9.62 8.70 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.434 0.564 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.85 4.23 4.04
BP FIP 3.11 3.77 3.88
BP WHIP 1.32 1.38
BP K/9 9.86 8.76
BP Quality* 47.4 51.2 44.7
BP IP 170.7 176.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Keller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (35 pitches yesterday)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandan Bidois (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 39%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9690 (Temp: 1.0033 | Wind: 0.9658)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.8 - PIT 4.0
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.8 - PIT 4.0
Win Probability: PHI 47.2% - PIT 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +112 / PIT -112
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 38.3%
Under 8.5: 61.7%
PHI -1.5: 30.3%
PIT +1.5: 69.7%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.637 / PIT 0.867
Bullpen Adj: PHI 1.060 / PIT 1.145
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 1.9 - PIT 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.9 - PIT 1.7
F5 Win Prob: PHI 52.9% - PIT 47.1% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -112 / PIT +112
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -172 +112 -16.0%
PIT ML +144 -112 +11.8%
PHI -1.5 +100 +230 -19.7%
PIT +1.5 -120 -230 +15.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -14.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.3%
Fair ML: -161 | Kelly: 4.88%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00325
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +144 | Edge: 11.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00326
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -120 | Edge: 15.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00327
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 4.98 ERA: 3.82
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.0 K/9: 6.2
BB/9: 2.99 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 3.99 FIP: 3.98
IP: 57.7 IP: 47.7
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA TB Lg Avg
Record 20-25 29-14
R/Game 4.18 4.56 4.40
RA/Game 4.51 3.93 4.40
OPS 0.690 0.713 0.707
wOBA 0.302 0.307 0.306
ERA 4.24 3.48 4.08
FIP 3.76 3.94 3.95
WHIP 1.28 1.16 1.31
K/9 8.57 7.73 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.567 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.29 4.12 4.04
BP FIP 3.26 4.33 3.88
BP WHIP 1.17 1.27
BP K/9 9.30 7.87
BP Quality* 39.6 48.1 44.7
BP IP 158.7 172.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jesse Scholtens (68 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.0 - TB 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.0 - TB 4.5
Win Probability: MIA 44.5% - TB 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +125 / TB -125
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.5%
Under 7.5: 43.5%
MIA +1.5: 61.4%
TB -1.5: 38.6%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.094 / TB 0.971
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.886 / TB 1.076
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.1 - TB 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.1 - TB 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIA 41.0% - TB 59.0% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +144 / TB -144
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +118 +125 -1.4%
TB ML -138 -125 -2.5%
MIA +1.5 -184 -159 -3.4%
TB -1.5 +152 +159 -1.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Paddack Home: Joey Cantillo
ERA: 5.74 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 6.64 K/9: 9.67
BB/9: 2.25 BB/9: 3.97
FIP: 4.93 FIP: 3.66
IP: 30.7 IP: 45.3
xERA: 5.03 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.344 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Joey Cantillo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CLE Lg Avg
Record 24-21 24-22
R/Game 4.38 4.20 4.40
RA/Game 4.93 4.13 4.40
OPS 0.703 0.689 0.707
wOBA 0.305 0.301 0.306
ERA 4.64 3.88 4.08
FIP 4.74 3.89 3.95
WHIP 1.47 1.28 1.31
K/9 7.77 9.39 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 4.12 4.04
BP FIP 4.76 3.84 3.88
BP WHIP 1.54 1.29
BP K/9 8.97 10.10
BP Quality* 59.0 45.4 44.7
BP IP 175.7 155.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Graham Ashcraft (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9895 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 0.9892)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.8 - CLE 5.3
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.8 - CLE 5.3
Win Probability: CIN 35.7% - CLE 64.3%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +180 / CLE -180
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 51.9%
Under 8.5: 48.1%
CIN +1.5: 51.6%
CLE -1.5: 48.4%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 1.267 / CLE 0.870
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.320 / CLE 1.016
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.0 - CLE 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.0 - CLE 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CIN 36.3% - CLE 63.7% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +175 / CLE -175
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +136 +180 -6.7%
CLE ML -162 -180 +2.5%
CIN +1.5 -150 -107 -8.4%
CLE -1.5 +125 +107 +3.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Kai-Wei Teng
ERA: 2.89 ERA: 3.12
WHIP: 0.92 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 10.06 K/9: 7.96
BB/9: 1.86 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 3.39 FIP: 3.75
IP: 44.7 IP: 26.0
xERA: 3.36 xERA: 4.02
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
Record 21-23 18-28
R/Game 3.68 4.52 4.40
RA/Game 3.73 5.52 4.40
OPS 0.674 0.745 0.707
wOBA 0.294 0.319 0.306
ERA 3.60 5.47 4.08
FIP 3.83 4.82 3.95
WHIP 1.23 1.56 1.31
K/9 8.73 8.86 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.410 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.11 5.81 4.04
BP FIP 3.74 5.30 3.88
BP WHIP 1.25 1.59
BP K/9 7.53 8.59
BP Quality* 42.1 60.8 44.7
BP IP 150.7 190.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9829 (Temp: 1.0107 | Wind: 0.9725)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.3 - HOU 3.9
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.3 - HOU 3.9
Win Probability: TEX 54.3% - HOU 45.7%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -119 / HOU +119
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 42.5%
Under 8.0: 46.8%
TEX -1.5: 37.3%
HOU +1.5: 62.7%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.798 / HOU 1.110
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.942 / HOU 1.360
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.2 - HOU 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.2 - HOU 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TEX 54.3% - HOU 45.7% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -119 / HOU +119
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -148 -119 -5.3%
HOU ML +126 +119 +1.4%
TEX -1.5 +112 +168 -9.9%
HOU +1.5 -134 -168 +5.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jameson Taillon Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 3.74 ERA: 3.53
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 7.05 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 2.16 BB/9: 2.75
FIP: 4.83 FIP: 3.94
IP: 45.7 IP: 50.0
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 5.13
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.347
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC CWS Lg Avg
Record 29-16 22-22
R/Game 5.11 4.41 4.40
RA/Game 4.04 4.70 4.40
OPS 0.747 0.725 0.707
wOBA 0.324 0.310 0.306
ERA 3.80 4.35 4.08
FIP 4.14 4.19 3.95
WHIP 1.19 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.26 8.09 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.605 0.470 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 4.63 4.04
BP FIP 4.31 4.28 3.88
BP WHIP 1.25 1.45
BP K/9 8.01 8.15
BP Quality* 48.0 54.2 44.7
BP IP 163.0 194.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Javier Assad (39 pitches yesterday)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9936 (Temp: 1.0091 | Wind: 0.9846)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.5 - CWS 4.7
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.5 - CWS 4.7
Win Probability: CHC 57.2% - CWS 42.8%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -134 / CWS +134
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.5: 62.0%
Under 8.5: 38.0%
CHC +1.5: 71.4%
CWS -1.5: 28.6%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.033 / CWS 1.043
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.074 / CWS 1.213
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.9 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.9 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CHC 55.3% - CWS 44.7% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -124 / CWS +124
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -106 -134 +5.8%
CWS ML -110 +134 -9.6%
CHC +1.5 -184 -249 +6.6%
CWS -1.5 +152 +249 -11.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +9.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -14.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -163 | Kelly: 5.07%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00328
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Henderson Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 3.32
WHIP: 0.92 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 11.08 K/9: 9.95
BB/9: 1.38 BB/9: 3.32
FIP: 2.1 FIP: 4.05
IP: 13.0 IP: 19.0
xERA: 3.69 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL MIN Lg Avg
Record 25-17 20-25
R/Game 5.05 4.73 4.40
RA/Game 3.60 4.87 4.40
OPS 0.691 0.707 0.707
wOBA 0.300 0.309 0.306
ERA 3.32 4.43 4.08
FIP 3.22 3.93 3.95
WHIP 1.22 1.35 1.31
K/9 9.81 7.73 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.650 0.487 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.41 5.33 4.04
BP FIP 3.24 4.22 3.88
BP WHIP 1.33 1.58
BP K/9 9.30 7.41
BP Quality* 42.5 52.9 44.7
BP IP 171.3 160.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0310 (Temp: 1.0048 | Wind: 1.0261)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.5 - MIN 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.5 - MIN 4.6
Win Probability: MIL 57.6% - MIN 42.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -136 / MIN +136
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.5: 61.2%
Under 8.5: 38.9%
MIL -1.5: 43.1%
MIN +1.5: 56.9%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.895 / MIN 0.977
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.951 / MIN 1.183
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.8 - MIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.8 - MIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 55.3% - MIN 44.7% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -124 / MIN +124
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -124 -136 +2.2%
MIN ML +106 +136 -6.1%
MIL -1.5 +132 +132 -0.0%
MIN +1.5 -160 -132 -4.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.8%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.60%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00329
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walker Buehler Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 4.99 ERA: 3.53
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 6.82 K/9: 11.24
BB/9: 4.04 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 4.93 FIP: 3.29
IP: 36.3 IP: 50.0
xERA: 5.41 xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SEA Lg Avg
Record 26-18 22-24
R/Game 4.09 4.15 4.40
RA/Game 4.11 3.85 4.40
OPS 0.657 0.704 0.707
wOBA 0.285 0.308 0.306
ERA 4.04 3.58 4.08
FIP 3.43 3.45 3.95
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.86 8.60 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.497 0.535 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 3.08 4.04
BP FIP 2.97 3.20 3.88
BP WHIP 1.21 1.32
BP K/9 9.61 8.86
BP Quality* 40.3 42.6 44.7
BP IP 181.7 146.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nick Davila (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 51°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 45%
Conditions: Cool (51°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9802 (Temp: 0.9752 | Wind: 1.0052)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.2 - SEA 4.3
Simulated Avg: SD 3.2 - SEA 4.3
Win Probability: SD 37.5% - SEA 62.5%
Fair Moneyline: SD +167 / SEA -167
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 45.6%
Under 7.5: 54.4%
SD +1.5: 56.0%
SEA -1.5: 44.0%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.253 / SEA 0.804
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.902 / SEA 0.953
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.7 - SEA 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.7 - SEA 2.7
F5 Win Prob: SD 32.6% - SEA 67.4% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +207 / SEA -207
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +140 +167 -4.2%
SEA ML -166 -167 +0.1%
SD +1.5 -150 -127 -4.0%
SEA -1.5 +125 +127 -0.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Payton Tolle Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 1.99 ERA: 4.4
WHIP: 0.84 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 10.72 K/9: 7.85
BB/9: 2.38 BB/9: 3.03
FIP: 2.66 FIP: 4.03
IP: 22.7 IP: 54.7
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 4.73
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATL Lg Avg
Record 18-26 31-14
R/Game 3.70 5.33 4.40
RA/Game 4.02 3.29 4.40
OPS 0.668 0.775 0.707
wOBA 0.294 0.331 0.306
ERA 3.74 2.99 4.08
FIP 4.04 3.74 3.95
WHIP 1.25 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.37 8.91 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.708 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.18 3.06 4.04
BP FIP 3.78 3.38 3.88
BP WHIP 1.19 1.09
BP K/9 8.65 9.13
BP Quality* 46.1 42.9 44.7
BP IP 172.7 158.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Samaniego (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9969 (Temp: 1.0132 | Wind: 0.9839)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.8 - ATL 4.8
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.8 - ATL 4.8
Win Probability: BOS 39.9% - ATL 60.1%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +151 / ATL -151
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 56.8%
Under 7.5: 43.2%
BOS +1.5: 56.7%
ATL -1.5: 43.3%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.745 / ATL 1.070
Bullpen Adj: BOS 1.031 / ATL 0.960
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.2 - ATL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.2 - ATL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BOS 49.2% - ATL 50.8% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +103 / ATL -103
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +114 +151 -6.9%
ATL ML -134 -151 +2.9%
BOS +1.5 -178 -131 -7.3%
ATL -1.5 +146 +131 +2.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Carlos Rodón Home: Huascar Brazobán
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 3.49
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.32 K/9: 8.07
BB/9: 3.56 BB/9: 3.84
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 3.78
IP: 4.3 IP: 21.0
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY NYM Lg Avg
Record 28-17 18-26
R/Game 5.07 3.70 4.40
RA/Game 3.47 4.16 4.40
OPS 0.763 0.638 0.707
wOBA 0.326 0.277 0.306
ERA 3.19 3.78 4.08
FIP 3.32 3.42 3.95
WHIP 1.15 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.91 9.50 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.667 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.35 3.50 4.04
BP FIP 3.56 3.47 3.88
BP WHIP 1.26 1.26
BP K/9 8.66 9.47
BP Quality* 40.2 46.1 44.7
BP IP 150.7 177.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Tobias Myers (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Austin Warren (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9759 (Temp: 0.9947 | Wind: 0.9811)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.5 - NYM 3.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.5 - NYM 3.0
Win Probability: NYY 66.4% - NYM 33.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -198 / NYM +198
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.5: 34.6%
Under 8.5: 65.4%
NYY -1.5: 48.6%
NYM +1.5: 51.4%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.781 / NYM 0.898
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.899 / NYM 1.031
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.4 - NYM 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.4 - NYM 1.5
F5 Win Prob: NYY 66.1% - NYM 33.9% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -195 / NYM +195
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -122 -198 +11.4%
NYM ML +104 +198 -15.4%
NYY -1.5 +134 +106 +5.8%
NYM +1.5 -162 -106 -10.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -17.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +13.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -122 | Edge: 11.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00330
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00331
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Justin Wrobleski Home: José Soriano
ERA: 3.99 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 9.26 K/9: 8.61
BB/9: 2.29 BB/9: 3.93
FIP: 2.88 FIP: 3.49
IP: 44.7 IP: 54.3
xERA: 3.41 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Justin Wrobleski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD LAA Lg Avg
Record 27-18 16-29
R/Game 4.96 4.07 4.40
RA/Game 3.36 4.91 4.40
OPS 0.775 0.696 0.707
wOBA 0.331 0.303 0.306
ERA 3.29 4.59 4.08
FIP 3.38 4.17 3.95
WHIP 1.11 1.43 1.31
K/9 9.18 8.67 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.671 0.415 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.35 5.17 4.04
BP FIP 2.87 4.54 3.88
BP WHIP 1.17 1.50
BP K/9 9.55 8.84
BP Quality* 42.2 52.9 44.7
BP IP 142.3 167.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9643 (Temp: 0.9914 | Wind: 0.9727)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 4.8 - LAA 3.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.8 - LAA 3.5
Win Probability: LAD 62.9% - LAA 37.0%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -170 / LAA +170
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 44.3%
Under 8.5: 55.7%
LAD -1.5: 46.4%
LAA +1.5: 53.6%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.819 / LAA 0.909
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.944 / LAA 1.183
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.4 - LAA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.4 - LAA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: LAD 60.4% - LAA 39.6% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -153 / LAA +153
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -136 -170 +5.3%
LAA ML +116 +170 -9.2%
LAD -1.5 +118 +116 +0.5%
LAA +1.5 -142 -116 -5.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor McDonald Home: Luis Severino
ERA: 2.92 ERA: 4.42
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.76 K/9: 7.33
BB/9: 1.46 BB/9: 3.44
FIP: 3.75 FIP: 3.91
IP: 12.3 IP: 48.7
xERA: 3.21 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF ATH Lg Avg
Record 18-27 23-21
R/Game 3.31 4.43 4.40
RA/Game 4.38 4.48 4.40
OPS 0.654 0.737 0.707
wOBA 0.281 0.315 0.306
ERA 4.03 4.31 4.08
FIP 4.10 4.53 3.95
WHIP 1.33 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.07 7.95 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.375 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.40 4.52 4.04
BP FIP 3.95 4.05 3.88
BP WHIP 1.34 1.43
BP K/9 7.51 8.55
BP Quality* 46.4 55.4 44.7
BP IP 151.0 165.3
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tristan Beck (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Borucki (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Perkins (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), crosswind (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9864 (Temp: 0.9921 | Wind: 0.9942)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.7 - ATH 4.3
Simulated Avg: SF 3.7 - ATH 4.3
Win Probability: SF 43.1% - ATH 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: SF +132 / ATH -132
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
SF -1.5: 27.1%
SF +1.5: 60.7%
ATH -1.5: 39.2%
ATH +1.5: 72.9%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.879 / ATH 1.050
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.038 / ATH 1.239
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.9 - ATH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.9 - ATH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SF 45.2% - ATH 54.8% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +121 / ATH -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================