2026-05-17
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-17
Games: 15 | Plays: 5
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eury Pérez Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 4.43 ERA: 2.85
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 9.95 K/9: 7.95
BB/9: 3.42 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 3.81 FIP: 3.71
IP: 47.3 IP: 42.7
xERA: 3.23 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.281 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA TB Lg Avg
Record 21-25 29-15
R/Game 4.30 4.57 4.41
RA/Game 4.52 4.07 4.40
OPS 0.698 0.710 0.707
wOBA 0.304 0.306 0.306
ERA 4.18 3.60 4.08
FIP 3.73 3.93 3.96
WHIP 1.28 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.56 7.76 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.553 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.32 4.48 4.05
BP FIP 3.28 4.35 3.89
BP WHIP 1.17 1.31
BP K/9 9.24 8.00
BP Quality* 42.8 48.2 44.8
BP IP 162.7 176.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Nardi (2 of last 3 days)
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Heriberto Hernández, Javier Sanoja
Heriberto Hernández LF OPS: 0.785 (256 AB)
Javier Sanoja 3B OPS: 0.683 (313 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.0% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ben Williamson
Ben Williamson 2B OPS: 0.604 (277 AB)
Run Adjustment: 99.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.6 - TB 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.6 - TB 4.2
Win Probability: MIA 43.9% - TB 56.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +128 / TB -128
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 49.4%
Under 7.5: 50.6%
MIA +1.5: 61.9%
TB -1.5: 38.1%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 0.922 / TB 0.837
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.955 / TB 1.076
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.8 - TB 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.8 - TB 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 41.8% - TB 58.2% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +139 / TB -139
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +122 +128 -1.1%
TB ML -144 -128 -2.9%
MIA +1.5 -176 -162 -1.9%
TB -1.5 +146 +162 -2.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Young Home: Richard Lovelady
ERA: 5.94 ERA: 1.96
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 1.75
K/9: 7.23 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 3.48 BB/9: 6.87
FIP: 5.26 FIP: 4.14
IP: 26.0 IP: 18.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 5.81
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.366
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Richard Lovelady)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL WSH Lg Avg
Record 20-26 23-23
R/Game 4.30 5.48 4.41
RA/Game 5.35 5.67 4.40
OPS 0.693 0.739 0.707
wOBA 0.303 0.316 0.306
ERA 4.77 4.90 4.08
FIP 4.33 4.75 3.96
WHIP 1.44 1.43 1.31
K/9 8.33 7.78 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.402 0.484 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.46 4.74 4.05
BP FIP 4.04 4.80 3.89
BP WHIP 1.34 1.44
BP K/9 8.76 7.09
BP Quality* 49.7 52.4 44.8
BP IP 175.7 210.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Josh Walker (B2B, 30 pitches)
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Curtis Mead
Joey Wiemer RF OPS: 0.715 (55 AB)
Curtis Mead 1B OPS: 0.620 (240 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0051 (Temp: 1.0238 | Wind: 0.9817)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.2 - WSH 6.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.2 - WSH 6.5
Win Probability: BAL 30.6% - WSH 69.4%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +227 / WSH -227
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 10.0: 47.5%
Under 10.0: 43.5%
BAL -1.5: 19.3%
WSH +1.5: 80.7%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.284 / WSH 0.913
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.109 / WSH 1.170
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.1 - WSH 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.1 - WSH 3.8
F5 Win Prob: BAL 27.5% - WSH 72.5% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +263 / WSH -263
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -120 +227 -23.9%
WSH ML +102 -227 +19.9%
BAL -1.5 +125 +419 -25.2%
WSH +1.5 -150 -419 +20.7%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +102 | Edge: 19.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00335
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -150 | Edge: 20.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00336
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 2.69 ERA: 1.97
WHIP: 0.94 WHIP: 0.87
K/9: 11.31 K/9: 10.29
BB/9: 2.0 BB/9: 1.82
FIP: 2.78 FIP: 2.25
IP: 24.7 IP: 50.0
xERA: 2.49 xERA: 2.65
xwOBA: 0.247 xwOBA: 0.255
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI PIT Lg Avg
Record 23-23 24-22
R/Game 4.20 4.98 4.41
RA/Game 4.70 4.46 4.40
OPS 0.695 0.727 0.707
wOBA 0.300 0.316 0.306
ERA 4.31 3.84 4.08
FIP 3.37 3.50 3.96
WHIP 1.37 1.24 1.31
K/9 9.69 8.75 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.449 0.550 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.85 4.14 4.05
BP FIP 3.11 3.72 3.89
BP WHIP 1.32 1.38
BP K/9 9.86 8.92
BP Quality* 41.4 50.7 44.8
BP IP 170.7 182.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandan Bidois (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Edmundo Sosa
Edmundo Sosa 2B OPS: 0.776 (243 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.5% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Marcell Ozuna, Nick Yorke
Marcell Ozuna DH OPS: 0.755 (487 AB)
Nick Yorke 3B OPS: 0.583 (69 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9896 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 0.9718)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.1 - PIT 4.4
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.1 - PIT 4.4
Win Probability: PHI 36.0% - PIT 64.0%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +178 / PIT -178
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.0: 45.2%
Under 7.0: 43.2%
PHI +1.5: 54.5%
PIT -1.5: 45.5%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.898 / PIT 0.569
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.924 / PIT 1.132
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 1.2 - PIT 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.2 - PIT 2.4
F5 Win Prob: PHI 27.6% - PIT 72.4% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +262 / PIT -262
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +110 +178 -11.6%
PIT ML -130 -178 +7.5%
PHI +1.5 -200 -120 -12.2%
PIT -1.5 +164 +120 +7.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -9.2%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line) [+164]
Model: 45.5% | Market: 37.9% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: +120 | Kelly: 3.08%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00337
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brayan Bello Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 3.88 ERA: 4.07
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 6.7 K/9: 9.12
BB/9: 3.32 BB/9: 4.31
FIP: 4.21 FIP: 4.41
IP: 39.0 IP: 41.3
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 4.55
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS ATL Lg Avg
Record 19-26 31-15
R/Game 3.69 5.26 4.41
RA/Game 3.98 3.28 4.40
OPS 0.667 0.770 0.707
wOBA 0.293 0.329 0.306
ERA 3.71 2.99 4.08
FIP 4.06 3.73 3.96
WHIP 1.24 1.13 1.31
K/9 8.25 8.82 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.703 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 3.04 4.05
BP FIP 3.81 3.36 3.89
BP WHIP 1.20 1.08
BP K/9 8.60 9.19
BP Quality* 43.2 36.7 44.8
BP IP 173.7 159.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Samaniego (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Caleb Durbin, Masataka Yoshida
Caleb Durbin 3B OPS: 0.721 (445 AB)
Masataka Yoshida DH OPS: 0.695 (188 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.7% of full strength
ATL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ha-Seong Kim, Kyle Farmer
Ha-Seong Kim SS OPS: 0.649 (171 AB)
Kyle Farmer DH OPS: 0.645 (277 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9998 (Temp: 1.0231 | Wind: 0.9772)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.5 - ATL 5.4
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.5 - ATL 5.4
Win Probability: BOS 31.1% - ATL 68.8%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +221 / ATL -221
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 49.8%
Under 8.5: 50.2%
BOS +1.5: 46.9%
ATL -1.5: 53.1%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 1.035 / ATL 1.072
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.964 / ATL 0.819
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.1 - ATL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.1 - ATL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 35.7% - ATL 64.3% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +180 / ATL -180
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +136 +221 -11.2%
ATL ML -162 -221 +7.0%
BOS +1.5 -150 +113 -13.1%
ATL -1.5 +125 -113 +8.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.2%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line) [+125]
Model: 53.1% | Market: 44.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -113 | Kelly: 3.88%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00338
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brady Singer Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.48 ERA: 3.23
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 7.97 K/9: 9.66
BB/9: 2.97 BB/9: 4.23
FIP: 4.28 FIP: 4.17
IP: 42.0 IP: 55.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CLE Lg Avg
Record 24-22 25-22
R/Game 4.37 4.26 4.41
RA/Game 4.98 4.13 4.40
OPS 0.701 0.692 0.707
wOBA 0.304 0.302 0.306
ERA 4.68 3.88 4.08
FIP 4.75 3.90 3.96
WHIP 1.48 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.79 9.36 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.89 4.02 4.05
BP FIP 4.85 3.79 3.89
BP WHIP 1.57 1.27
BP K/9 9.07 10.08
BP Quality* 61.6 43.2 44.8
BP IP 178.7 159.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Pierce Johnson (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Full strength lineup confirmed
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rhys Hoskins, David Fry
Rhys Hoskins 1B OPS: 0.748 (279 AB)
David Fry RF OPS: 0.592 (146 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0068 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 0.9910)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.1 - CLE 4.9
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.1 - CLE 4.9
Win Probability: CIN 41.7% - CLE 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +140 / CLE -140
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.0%
Under 8.5: 49.0%
CIN +1.5: 57.7%
CLE -1.5: 42.3%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 1.060 / CLE 0.976
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.375 / CLE 0.964
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - CLE 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - CLE 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CIN 47.8% - CLE 52.2% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +109 / CLE -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +138 +140 -0.3%
CLE ML -164 -140 -3.8%
CIN +1.5 -152 -136 -2.6%
CLE -1.5 +126 +136 -1.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Jack Flaherty
ERA: 3.66 ERA: 4.92
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 8.71 K/9: 10.51
BB/9: 2.14 BB/9: 4.23
FIP: 3.32 FIP: 4.0
IP: 51.3 IP: 37.7
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR DET Lg Avg
Record 20-25 20-26
R/Game 4.09 4.07 4.41
RA/Game 4.40 4.28 4.40
OPS 0.678 0.707 0.707
wOBA 0.293 0.310 0.306
ERA 4.02 3.94 4.08
FIP 3.54 3.70 3.96
WHIP 1.30 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.19 8.47 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.04 3.91 4.05
BP FIP 3.40 3.94 3.89
BP WHIP 1.31 1.37
BP K/9 9.84 8.57
BP Quality* 44.8 47.8 44.8
BP IP 189.3 179.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (56 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: George Springer, Tyler Heineman, Myles Straw
George Springer DH OPS: 0.959 (498 AB)
Tyler Heineman C OPS: 0.777 (149 AB)
Myles Straw RF OPS: 0.680 (267 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.2% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones, Zack Short
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Zack Short SS OPS: 0.671 (50 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9988 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 0.9808)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.8 - DET 3.6
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.8 - DET 3.5
Win Probability: TOR 52.5% - DET 47.5%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -110 / DET +110
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.5: 43.8%
Under 7.5: 56.2%
TOR -1.5: 34.2%
DET +1.5: 65.8%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.871 / DET 1.036
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.000 / DET 1.067
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.1 - DET 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.1 - DET 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TOR 54.8% - DET 45.2% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -121 / DET +121
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -124 -110 -2.9%
DET ML +106 +110 -1.0%
TOR -1.5 +140 +192 -7.4%
DET +1.5 -170 -192 +2.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Elmer Rodríguez Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 5.19 ERA: 2.8
WHIP: 2.08 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 5.19 K/9: 10.06
BB/9: 8.31 BB/9: 3.39
FIP: 4.71 FIP: 3.48
IP: 8.7 IP: 49.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Freddy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY NYM Lg Avg
Record 28-18 19-26
R/Game 5.02 3.76 4.41
RA/Game 3.52 4.13 4.40
OPS 0.762 0.639 0.707
wOBA 0.326 0.278 0.306
ERA 3.24 3.74 4.08
FIP 3.30 3.36 3.96
WHIP 1.16 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.98 9.60 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.657 0.456 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 3.45 4.05
BP FIP 3.53 3.37 3.89
BP WHIP 1.27 1.27
BP K/9 8.71 9.66
BP Quality* 40.4 44.0 44.8
BP IP 155.0 185.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Peterson (82 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Amed Rosario, Paul Goldschmidt, Austin Wells
Amed Rosario 3B OPS: 0.745 (181 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt 1B OPS: 0.731 (489 AB)
Austin Wells C OPS: 0.711 (401 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.7% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Slater, Luis Torrens, Vidal Bruján, Tyrone Taylor
Austin Slater RF OPS: 0.642 (148 AB)
Luis Torrens C OPS: 0.629 (261 AB)
Vidal Bruján SS OPS: 0.615 (87 AB)
Tyrone Taylor CF OPS: 0.598 (310 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9943 (Temp: 1.0264 | Wind: 0.9687)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.0 - NYM 3.3
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.0 - NYM 3.3
Win Probability: NYY 57.5% - NYM 42.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -135 / NYM +135
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 8.5: 31.9%
Under 8.5: 68.1%
NYY +1.5: 75.1%
NYM -1.5: 24.9%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.890 / NYM 0.807
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.902 / NYM 0.982
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.0 - NYM 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.0 - NYM 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYY 55.4% - NYM 44.6% (Tie: 19.5%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -124 / NYM +124
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML +102 -135 +8.0%
NYM ML -120 +135 -12.0%
NYY +1.5 -205 -302 +7.9%
NYM -1.5 +168 +302 -12.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -20.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +15.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] New York Yankees +1.5 (Run Line) [-205]
Model: 75.1% | Market: 67.2% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -302 | Kelly: 6.01%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00339
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00340
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 2.28 ERA: 2.76
WHIP: 0.92 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.92 K/9: 8.9
BB/9: 1.55 BB/9: 3.68
FIP: 3.03 FIP: 2.79
IP: 47.7 IP: 29.3
xERA: 3.0 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
Record 21-24 19-28
R/Game 3.62 4.51 4.41
RA/Game 3.73 5.43 4.40
OPS 0.671 0.746 0.707
wOBA 0.294 0.319 0.306
ERA 3.62 5.37 4.08
FIP 3.93 4.80 3.96
WHIP 1.22 1.56 1.31
K/9 8.66 8.86 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.416 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.07 5.73 4.05
BP FIP 3.74 5.30 3.89
BP WHIP 1.24 1.60
BP K/9 7.49 8.51
BP Quality* 40.4 60.6 44.8
BP IP 152.7 194.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Corey Seager, Danny Jansen, Andrew McCutchen, Sam Haggerty
Corey Seager SS OPS: 0.860 (380 AB)
Danny Jansen C OPS: 0.720 (288 AB)
Andrew McCutchen DH OPS: 0.700 (477 AB)
Sam Haggerty LF OPS: 0.698 (162 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.2% of full strength
HOU (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, Christian Vázquez
Isaac Paredes 3B OPS: 0.810 (378 AB)
Jose Altuve 2B OPS: 0.771 (588 AB)
Christian Vázquez C OPS: 0.545 (190 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9753 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 0.9577)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.7 - HOU 3.3
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.7 - HOU 3.3
Win Probability: TEX 54.7% - HOU 45.3%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -121 / HOU +121
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 8.0: 29.4%
Under 8.0: 60.3%
TEX -1.5: 35.7%
HOU +1.5: 64.3%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.694 / HOU 1.060
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.902 / HOU 1.353
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.9 - HOU 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.9 - HOU 1.6
F5 Win Prob: TEX 56.1% - HOU 43.9% (Tie: 20.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -128 / HOU +128
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -118 -121 +0.5%
HOU ML +100 +121 -4.7%
TEX -1.5 +140 +180 -6.0%
HOU +1.5 -170 -180 +1.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -23.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +7.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.16%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00341
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Colin Rea Home: Erick Fedde
ERA: 4.08 ERA: 5.2
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 7.25 K/9: 5.32
BB/9: 2.54 BB/9: 4.05
FIP: 4.0 FIP: 5.24
IP: 42.3 IP: 43.0
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Colin Rea)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC CWS Lg Avg
Record 29-17 23-22
R/Game 5.07 4.49 4.41
RA/Game 4.13 4.67 4.40
OPS 0.747 0.733 0.707
wOBA 0.324 0.313 0.306
ERA 3.90 4.32 4.08
FIP 4.26 4.20 3.96
WHIP 1.19 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.23 8.11 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.482 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.69 4.65 4.05
BP FIP 4.26 4.34 3.89
BP WHIP 1.23 1.45
BP K/9 8.08 8.12
BP Quality* 47.4 54.5 44.8
BP IP 166.0 197.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (31 pitches yesterday)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Trevor Richards (B2B, 34 pitches)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Moisés Ballesteros, Miguel Amaya
Moisés Ballesteros DH OPS: 0.868 (57 AB)
Miguel Amaya C OPS: 0.814 (96 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.3% of full strength
CWS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Randal Grichuk, Luisangel Acuña, Jarred Kelenic
Randal Grichuk RF OPS: 0.674 (272 AB)
Luisangel Acuña CF OPS: 0.567 (175 AB)
Jarred Kelenic RF OPS: 0.531 (60 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9790 (Temp: 1.0101 | Wind: 0.9693)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.7 - CWS 4.6
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.8 - CWS 4.6
Win Probability: CHC 59.7% - CWS 40.3%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -148 / CWS +148
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.5: 63.0%
Under 8.5: 37.0%
CHC -1.5: 45.4%
CWS +1.5: 54.6%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.029 / CWS 1.296
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.058 / CWS 1.217
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.3 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.3 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CHC 61.2% - CWS 38.8% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -158 / CWS +158
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -134 -148 +2.5%
CWS ML +114 +148 -6.5%
CHC -1.5 +128 +120 +1.6%
CWS +1.5 -154 -120 -6.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00342
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robert Gasser Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 4.68
WHIP: 1.59 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 7.94 K/9: 7.22
BB/9: 6.35 BB/9: 2.09
FIP: 5.73 FIP: 4.49
IP: 5.7 IP: 52.0
xERA: 4.96 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Bailey Ober)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL MIN Lg Avg
Record 26-17 20-26
R/Game 4.98 4.65 4.41
RA/Game 3.53 4.80 4.40
OPS 0.689 0.705 0.707
wOBA 0.299 0.308 0.306
ERA 3.26 4.36 4.08
FIP 3.20 3.92 3.96
WHIP 1.22 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.81 7.76 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.652 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 5.23 4.05
BP FIP 3.20 4.21 3.89
BP WHIP 1.31 1.57
BP K/9 9.24 7.33
BP Quality* 40.4 54.0 44.8
BP IP 175.3 163.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (52 pitches yesterday)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Andrew Vaughn, Gary Sánchez, Blake Perkins
Andrew Vaughn 1B OPS: 0.718 (406 AB)
Gary Sánchez DH OPS: 0.715 (91 AB)
Blake Perkins LF OPS: 0.646 (155 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.8% of full strength
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Byron Buxton, Josh Bell, Trevor Larnach, Tristan Gray
Byron Buxton CF OPS: 0.878 (488 AB)
Josh Bell DH OPS: 0.742 (468 AB)
Trevor Larnach LF OPS: 0.727 (503 AB)
Tristan Gray 3B OPS: 0.692 (78 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), crosswind (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9835 (Temp: 0.9958 | Wind: 0.9877)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.3 - MIN 3.6
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.3 - MIN 3.6
Win Probability: MIL 66.3% - MIN 33.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -196 / MIN +196
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 49.7%
Under 8.0: 39.8%
MIL -1.5: 50.4%
MIN +1.5: 49.6%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.795 / MIN 1.101
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.902 / MIN 1.205
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.9 - MIN 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.9 - MIN 1.9
F5 Win Prob: MIL 66.5% - MIN 33.6% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -198 / MIN +198
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -134 -196 +9.0%
MIN ML +114 +196 -13.0%
MIL -1.5 +128 -102 +6.6%
MIN +1.5 -154 +102 -11.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Stephen Kolek Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 3.7 ERA: 5.12
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 6.23 K/9: 6.34
BB/9: 2.48 BB/9: 3.57
FIP: 3.73 FIP: 4.53
IP: 10.7 IP: 42.3
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: KC (Stephen Kolek)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC STL Lg Avg
Record 19-27 27-18
R/Game 4.07 4.62 4.41
RA/Game 4.57 4.51 4.40
OPS 0.704 0.715 0.707
wOBA 0.305 0.307 0.306
ERA 4.38 4.19 4.08
FIP 4.27 4.32 3.96
WHIP 1.38 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.58 7.11 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.53 4.05
BP FIP 4.59 4.26 3.89
BP WHIP 1.48 1.41
BP K/9 8.65 7.81
BP Quality* 52.3 56.5 44.8
BP IP 156.0 167.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Starling Marte, Nick Loftin
Starling Marte RF OPS: 0.745 (293 AB)
Nick Loftin 2B OPS: 0.635 (168 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
STL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: José Fermín, Yohel Pozo, Pedro Pagés
José Fermín LF OPS: 0.794 (60 AB)
Yohel Pozo C OPS: 0.637 (160 AB)
Pedro Pagés C OPS: 0.635 (361 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), strong wind in (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9687 (Temp: 1.0212 | Wind: 0.9486)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.4 - STL 4.7
Simulated Avg: KC 4.4 - STL 4.7
Win Probability: KC 47.3% - STL 52.7%
Fair Moneyline: KC +112 / STL -112
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.0: 41.5%
Under 9.0: 48.5%
KC +1.5: 63.4%
STL -1.5: 36.6%
Pitcher Adj: KC 1.007 / STL 1.127
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.167 / STL 1.261
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.4 - STL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.3 - STL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 48.9% - STL 51.1% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +105 / STL -105
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +102 +112 -2.2%
STL ML -120 -112 -1.8%
KC +1.5 -196 -173 -2.8%
STL -1.5 +162 +173 -1.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Soroka Home: Michael Lorenzen
ERA: 4.29 ERA: 5.13
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 9.59 K/9: 7.63
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 2.58
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 4.5
IP: 43.3 IP: 44.0
xERA: 3.53 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Michael Soroka)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
Record 21-23 18-28
R/Game 4.32 4.20 4.41
RA/Game 4.75 5.11 4.40
OPS 0.692 0.710 0.707
wOBA 0.298 0.307 0.306
ERA 4.35 4.86 4.08
FIP 4.16 4.54 3.96
WHIP 1.28 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.56 7.50 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.457 0.411 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 4.26 4.05
BP FIP 3.82 3.89 3.89
BP WHIP 1.17 1.33
BP K/9 7.94 8.61
BP Quality* 44.2 46.8 44.8
BP IP 150.7 209.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 46%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0506 (Temp: 0.9963 | Wind: 1.0545)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 5.7 - COL 4.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 5.6 - COL 4.9
Win Probability: ARI 56.6% - COL 43.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -130 / COL +130
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 10.5: 45.9%
Under 10.5: 54.1%
ARI -1.5: 42.1%
COL +1.5: 57.9%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 0.911 / COL 1.151
Bullpen Adj: ARI 0.987 / COL 1.045
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 3.3 - COL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.3 - COL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ARI 60.1% - COL 39.9% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -150 / COL +150
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -144 -130 -2.4%
COL ML +122 +130 -1.6%
ARI -1.5 +110 +138 -5.5%
COL +1.5 -132 -138 +1.0%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -6.5%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +1.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Adrian Houser Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 3.88 ERA: 4.14
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 6.23 K/9: 7.47
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 4.01 FIP: 4.44
IP: 42.0 IP: 49.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: SF (Adrian Houser)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF ATH Lg Avg
Record 19-27 23-22
R/Game 3.37 4.42 4.41
RA/Game 4.37 4.51 4.40
OPS 0.663 0.734 0.707
wOBA 0.284 0.314 0.306
ERA 4.03 4.35 4.08
FIP 4.09 4.52 3.96
WHIP 1.33 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.07 8.02 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.383 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.52 4.49 4.05
BP FIP 4.02 3.99 3.89
BP WHIP 1.34 1.43
BP K/9 7.57 8.61
BP Quality* 47.1 52.0 44.8
BP IP 153.3 168.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Borucki (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Barlow (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0169 (Temp: 1.0047 | Wind: 1.0121)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.8 - ATH 4.8
Simulated Avg: SF 3.8 - ATH 4.8
Win Probability: SF 40.2% - ATH 59.8%
Fair Moneyline: SF +149 / ATH -149
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
SF -1.5: 25.0%
SF +1.5: 57.2%
ATH -1.5: 42.8%
ATH +1.5: 75.0%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.977 / ATH 1.058
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.051 / ATH 1.161
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.0 - ATH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.0 - ATH 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SF 41.6% - ATH 58.4% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +141 / ATH -141
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Roki Sasaki Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD LAA Lg Avg
Record 28-18 16-30
R/Game 5.17 4.02 4.41
RA/Game 3.33 5.13 4.40
OPS 0.779 0.695 0.707
wOBA 0.333 0.303 0.306
ERA 3.26 4.80 4.08
FIP 3.37 4.20 3.96
WHIP 1.12 1.44 1.31
K/9 9.13 8.68 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.692 0.390 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.28 5.48 4.05
BP FIP 2.91 4.60 3.89
BP WHIP 1.18 1.54
BP K/9 9.47 8.81
BP Quality* 43.8 56.0 44.8
BP IP 145.3 170.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wyatt Mills (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Charlie Barnes (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alek Manoah (59 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9716 (Temp: 0.9971 | Wind: 0.9744)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.5 - LAA 4.8
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.5 - LAA 4.8
Win Probability: LAD 56.1% - LAA 43.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -128 / LAA +128
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.5: 52.9%
Under 9.5: 47.1%
LAD -1.5: 41.6%
LAA +1.5: 58.4%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 1.330 / LAA 1.000
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.978 / LAA 1.250
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.8 - LAA 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.8 - LAA 2.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 47.5% - LAA 52.5% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +111 / LAA -111
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -142 -128 -2.6%
LAA ML +120 +128 -1.6%
LAD -1.5 +114 +140 -5.1%
LAA +1.5 -137 -140 +0.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +0.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Lucas Giolito Home: George Kirby
ERA: 3.41 ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 7.51 K/9: 9.14
BB/9: 3.48 BB/9: 2.11
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 3.15
IP: 145.0 IP: 57.0
xERA: 5.06 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.345 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SEA Lg Avg
Record 27-18 22-25
R/Game 4.16 4.15 4.41
RA/Game 4.11 3.91 4.40
OPS 0.661 0.703 0.707
wOBA 0.286 0.308 0.306
ERA 4.04 3.66 4.08
FIP 3.44 3.54 3.96
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.87 8.54 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 3.03 4.05
BP FIP 2.97 3.22 3.89
BP WHIP 1.21 1.33
BP K/9 9.55 8.78
BP Quality* 40.4 41.1 44.8
BP IP 185.7 148.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nick Davila (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Domingo Gonzalez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0052 (Temp: 0.9861 | Wind: 1.0194)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.4 - SEA 4.0
Simulated Avg: SD 3.5 - SEA 3.9
Win Probability: SD 44.6% - SEA 55.4%
Fair Moneyline: SD +124 / SEA -124
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 44.1%
Under 7.5: 55.9%
SD +1.5: 63.3%
SEA -1.5: 36.7%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.046 / SEA 0.878
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.902 / SEA 0.917
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.9 - SEA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.9 - SEA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SD 42.1% - SEA 57.9% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +138 / SEA -138
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +136 +124 +2.2%
SEA ML -162 -124 -6.5%
SD +1.5 -154 -172 +2.7%
SEA -1.5 +128 +172 -7.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================