2026-05-18
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-18
Games: 14 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Slade Cecconi Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 4.63 ERA: 3.83
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 7.47 K/9: 8.46
BB/9: 2.49 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 3.36
IP: 45.0 IP: 50.0
xERA: 4.99 xERA: 3.79
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
Record 26-22 20-27
R/Game 4.38 4.00 4.42
RA/Game 4.10 4.28 4.41
OPS 0.705 0.702 0.708
wOBA 0.307 0.307 0.306
ERA 3.86 3.95 4.09
FIP 3.88 3.70 3.96
WHIP 1.28 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.42 8.40 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.529 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.00 3.84 4.05
BP FIP 3.75 3.93 3.89
BP WHIP 1.28 1.36
BP K/9 10.17 8.47
BP Quality* 44.5 47.5 44.8
BP IP 162.0 182.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Burch Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Kyle Manzardo, Daniel Schneemann, Patrick Bailey
Kyle Manzardo 1B OPS: 0.768 (470 AB)
Daniel Schneemann CF OPS: 0.637 (379 AB)
Patrick Bailey C OPS: 0.602 (409 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.6% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 37 mph)
Precip Chance: 55%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), strong wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9550 (Temp: 1.0006 | Wind: 0.9544)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.8 - DET 4.0
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.7 - DET 4.0
Win Probability: CLE 47.0% - DET 53.0%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +113 / DET -113
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 38.0%
Under 8.0: 51.5%
CLE -1.5: 29.8%
DET +1.5: 70.2%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 1.162 / DET 0.887
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.993 / DET 1.060
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.9 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.9 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CLE 43.0% - DET 57.0% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +133 / DET -133
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -120 +113 -7.6%
DET ML +102 -113 +3.5%
CLE -1.5 +142 +236 -11.6%
DET +1.5 -172 -236 +7.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -14.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -0.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Shane McClanahan
ERA: 2.6 ERA: 2.27
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 8.33 K/9: 9.3
BB/9: 2.59 BB/9: 3.4
FIP: 3.06 FIP: 2.5
IP: 34.3 IP: 39.7
xERA: 3.41 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
Record 21-26 30-15
R/Game 4.36 4.60 4.42
RA/Game 5.30 4.04 4.41
OPS 0.699 0.714 0.708
wOBA 0.305 0.308 0.306
ERA 4.74 3.59 4.09
FIP 4.31 3.91 3.96
WHIP 1.44 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.38 7.70 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.412 0.559 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 4.44 4.05
BP FIP 3.95 4.30 3.89
BP WHIP 1.33 1.31
BP K/9 8.90 7.99
BP Quality* 48.9 52.3 44.8
BP IP 181.0 180.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (38 pitches yesterday)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Colton Cowser
Colton Cowser CF OPS: 0.654 (327 AB)
Run Adjustment: 99.2% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Cedric Mullins, Ben Williamson
Cedric Mullins CF OPS: 0.690 (435 AB)
Ben Williamson 2B OPS: 0.604 (277 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 3.4 - TB 4.0
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.4 - TB 4.0
Win Probability: BAL 43.3% - TB 56.7%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +131 / TB -131
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.5: 43.5%
Under 7.5: 56.5%
BAL +1.5: 62.1%
TB -1.5: 37.9%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 0.750 / TB 0.589
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.092 / TB 1.167
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 1.4 - TB 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.3 - TB 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BAL 38.6% - TB 61.4% (Tie: 21.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +159 / TB -159
F5 Avg Total: 3.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -102 +131 -7.2%
TB ML -116 -131 +3.0%
BAL +1.5 -200 -164 -4.5%
TB -1.5 +164 +164 +0.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Lodolo Home: Andrew Painter
ERA: 3.64 ERA: 6.21
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.59
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 8.12
BB/9: 1.9 BB/9: 2.87
FIP: 3.72 FIP: 4.66
IP: 9.3 IP: 37.7
xERA: 3.48 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Nick Lodolo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PHI Lg Avg
Record 24-23 24-23
R/Game 4.34 4.23 4.42
RA/Game 5.09 4.60 4.41
OPS 0.704 0.696 0.708
wOBA 0.305 0.301 0.306
ERA 4.81 4.22 4.09
FIP 4.89 3.33 3.96
WHIP 1.49 1.36 1.31
K/9 7.83 9.68 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.428 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.03 3.81 4.05
BP FIP 5.04 3.09 3.89
BP WHIP 1.58 1.31
BP K/9 9.02 9.80
BP Quality* 63.0 41.2 44.8
BP IP 182.7 172.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Connor Phillips (B2B, 33 pitches)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Will Benson
Will Benson RF OPS: 0.708 (230 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.4% of full strength
PHI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh
Kyle Schwarber DH OPS: 0.928 (604 AB)
Brandon Marsh LF OPS: 0.785 (379 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9942 (Temp: 1.0269 | Wind: 0.9682)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.9 - PHI 5.1
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.9 - PHI 5.1
Win Probability: CIN 48.2% - PHI 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +108 / PHI -108
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.0: 49.9%
Under 9.0: 40.4%
CIN +1.5: 63.3%
PHI -1.5: 36.7%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 1.119 / PHI 1.291
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.400 / PHI 0.920
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 3.1 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 3.1 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CIN 58.1% - PHI 41.9% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -139 / PHI +139
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +126 +108 +3.9%
PHI ML -148 -108 -7.9%
CIN +1.5 -170 -172 +0.3%
PHI -1.5 +140 +172 -5.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -12.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: JR Ritchie Home: Max Meyer
ERA: 3.32 ERA: 4.34
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.06 K/9: 9.65
BB/9: 6.23 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 6.0 FIP: 4.0
IP: 21.7 IP: 47.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.8
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Max Meyer)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
Record 32-15 21-26
R/Game 5.32 4.28 4.42
RA/Game 3.23 4.55 4.41
OPS 0.772 0.699 0.708
wOBA 0.330 0.305 0.306
ERA 2.94 4.23 4.09
FIP 3.69 3.80 3.96
WHIP 1.13 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.79 8.51 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.713 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.04 3.31 4.05
BP FIP 3.32 3.31 3.89
BP WHIP 1.09 1.18
BP K/9 9.18 9.07
BP Quality* 38.0 41.6 44.8
BP IP 162.7 165.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Andrew Nardi (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Phillips (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Kyle Farmer
Kyle Farmer DH OPS: 0.645 (277 AB)
Run Adjustment: 99.3% of full strength
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Heriberto Hernández, Christopher Morel
Heriberto Hernández LF OPS: 0.785 (256 AB)
Christopher Morel 1B OPS: 0.685 (278 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0249 (Temp: 1.0091 | Wind: 1.0156)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 5.0 - MIA 3.2
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.0 - MIA 3.2
Win Probability: ATL 68.4% - MIA 31.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -216 / MIA +216
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 42.1%
Under 8.0: 47.2%
ATL -1.5: 52.0%
MIA +1.5: 48.0%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.756 / MIA 1.067
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.848 / MIA 0.929
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 3.0 - MIA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.9 - MIA 1.6
F5 Win Prob: ATL 71.4% - MIA 28.6% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -249 / MIA +249
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -126 -216 +12.6%
MIA ML +108 +216 -16.5%
ATL -1.5 +136 -108 +9.7%
MIA +1.5 -164 +108 -14.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.2%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line) [+136]
Model: 52.0% | Market: 42.4% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -108 | Kelly: 4.19%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00343
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -126 | Edge: 12.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00344
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Christian Scott Home: Jake Irvin
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 5.75
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 11.49 K/9: 7.05
BB/9: 5.17 BB/9: 3.39
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 5.17
IP: 15.7 IP: 42.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 5.59
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.36
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
Record 20-26 23-24
R/Game 3.83 5.43 4.42
RA/Game 4.17 5.70 4.41
OPS 0.644 0.738 0.708
wOBA 0.280 0.316 0.306
ERA 3.76 4.95 4.09
FIP 3.41 4.77 3.96
WHIP 1.28 1.43 1.31
K/9 9.54 7.81 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.45 4.78 4.05
BP FIP 3.37 4.80 3.89
BP WHIP 1.27 1.44
BP K/9 9.60 7.17
BP Quality* 42.5 55.5 44.8
BP IP 190.3 218.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Manaea (57 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Paxton Schultz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Miles Mikolas (93 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Slater, Vidal Bruján
Austin Slater RF OPS: 0.642 (148 AB)
Vidal Bruján SS OPS: 0.615 (87 AB)
Run Adjustment: 99.1% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Nasim Nuñez, Curtis Mead, Keibert Ruiz
Joey Wiemer RF OPS: 0.715 (55 AB)
Nasim Nuñez 2B OPS: 0.699 (82 AB)
Curtis Mead 1B OPS: 0.620 (240 AB)
Keibert Ruiz C OPS: 0.595 (255 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0079 (Temp: 1.0311 | Wind: 0.9775)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.8 - WSH 4.8
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.8 - WSH 4.8
Win Probability: NYM 49.0% - WSH 51.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +104 / WSH -104
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 46.7%
Under 9.0: 43.3%
NYM -1.5: 34.0%
WSH +1.5: 66.0%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.889 / WSH 1.335
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.949 / WSH 1.239
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.8 - WSH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.8 - WSH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: NYM 52.3% - WSH 47.7% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -110 / WSH +110
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -162 +104 -12.8%
WSH ML +136 -104 +8.6%
NYM -1.5 +105 +194 -14.8%
WSH +1.5 -126 -194 +10.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -126 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00345
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Patrick Corbin Home: Ryan Weathers
ERA: 4.31 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 7.23 K/9: 9.17
BB/9: 2.88 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 4.21
IP: 34.3 IP: 45.0
xERA: 4.77 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
Record 21-25 28-19
R/Game 4.09 5.04 4.42
RA/Game 4.33 3.60 4.41
OPS 0.676 0.759 0.708
wOBA 0.292 0.325 0.306
ERA 3.96 3.29 4.09
FIP 3.51 3.34 3.96
WHIP 1.29 1.17 1.31
K/9 9.15 8.84 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.650 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.02 3.60 4.05
BP FIP 3.40 3.62 3.89
BP WHIP 1.31 1.29
BP K/9 9.78 8.55
BP Quality* 46.3 49.1 44.8
BP IP 192.3 160.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Heineman, Jesús Sánchez
Tyler Heineman C OPS: 0.777 (149 AB)
Jesús Sánchez RF OPS: 0.699 (451 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Trent Grisham, Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon
Trent Grisham CF OPS: 0.812 (494 AB)
Austin Wells C OPS: 0.711 (401 AB)
Ryan McMahon 3B OPS: 0.693 (509 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9960 (Temp: 0.9990 | Wind: 0.9970)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.9 - NYY 5.1
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.0 - NYY 5.1
Win Probability: TOR 39.0% - NYY 61.0%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +157 / NYY -157
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 51.2%
Under 8.5: 48.8%
TOR +1.5: 55.3%
NYY -1.5: 44.7%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 1.072 / NYY 0.980
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.033 / NYY 1.096
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.1 - NYY 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.1 - NYY 2.8
F5 Win Prob: TOR 38.2% - NYY 61.8% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +162 / NYY -162
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +110 +157 -8.7%
NYY ML -130 -157 +4.5%
TOR +1.5 -184 -124 -9.5%
NYY -1.5 +155 +124 +5.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sonny Gray Home: Seth Lugo
ERA: 4.06 ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 9.12 K/9: 7.77
BB/9: 1.94 BB/9: 3.37
FIP: 3.46 FIP: 4.35
IP: 34.0 IP: 52.7
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 5.16
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.348
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS KC Lg Avg
Record 19-27 20-27
R/Game 3.63 4.02 4.42
RA/Game 4.07 4.47 4.41
OPS 0.666 0.704 0.708
wOBA 0.292 0.305 0.306
ERA 3.81 4.28 4.09
FIP 4.12 4.24 3.96
WHIP 1.25 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.20 8.48 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.452 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 4.42 4.05
BP FIP 3.80 4.57 3.89
BP WHIP 1.19 1.47
BP K/9 8.66 8.57
BP Quality* 43.1 53.4 44.8
BP IP 176.7 158.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (48 pitches yesterday)
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Carlos Narváez, Caleb Durbin, Ceddanne Rafaela
Carlos Narváez C OPS: 0.725 (403 AB)
Caleb Durbin 3B OPS: 0.721 (445 AB)
Ceddanne Rafaela CF OPS: 0.709 (546 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.6% of full strength
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Starling Marte, Nick Loftin
Starling Marte RF OPS: 0.745 (293 AB)
Nick Loftin 2B OPS: 0.635 (168 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 35 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), strong wind in (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9622 (Temp: 1.0072 | Wind: 0.9554)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.7 - KC 3.6
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.7 - KC 3.6
Win Probability: BOS 51.0% - KC 49.0%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -104 / KC +104
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 9.0: 23.3%
Under 9.0: 67.9%
BOS -1.5: 32.9%
KC +1.5: 67.1%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.919 / KC 1.115
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.962 / KC 1.192
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.0 - KC 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.0 - KC 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 52.0% - KC 48.0% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -108 / KC +108
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -112 -104 -1.9%
KC ML -104 +104 -1.9%
BOS -1.5 +146 +204 -7.8%
KC +1.5 -178 -204 +3.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -29.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +15.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00346
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tatsuya Imai Home: Kendry Rojas
ERA: 9.24 ERA: 2.45
WHIP: 2.05 WHIP: 2.18
K/9: 11.37 K/9: 9.82
BB/9: 9.95 BB/9: 9.82
FIP: 5.93 FIP: 4.2
IP: 12.7 IP: 7.3
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Kendry Rojas)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU MIN Lg Avg
Record 19-29 21-26
R/Game 4.42 4.66 4.42
RA/Game 5.48 4.79 4.41
OPS 0.741 0.707 0.708
wOBA 0.317 0.309 0.306
ERA 5.43 4.35 4.09
FIP 4.80 3.98 3.96
WHIP 1.55 1.35 1.31
K/9 8.84 7.70 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.403 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.78 5.16 4.05
BP FIP 5.31 4.19 3.89
BP WHIP 1.60 1.57
BP K/9 8.47 7.37
BP Quality* 62.3 58.2 44.8
BP IP 197.7 167.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cody Bolton (51 pitches yesterday)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 31%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9911 (Temp: 0.9809 | Wind: 1.0104)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.8 - MIN 7.2
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.8 - MIN 7.2
Win Probability: HOU 31.3% - MIN 68.7%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +220 / MIN -220
Avg Total Runs: 12.0
Over 8.5: 74.8%
Under 8.5: 25.2%
HOU +1.5: 43.9%
MIN -1.5: 56.1%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.600 / MIN 0.971
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.391 / MIN 1.299
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.4 - MIN 4.2
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.4 - MIN 4.2
F5 Win Prob: HOU 27.1% - MIN 72.9% (Tie: 11.8%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +269 / MIN -269
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +120 +220 -14.2%
MIN ML -142 -220 +10.1%
HOU +1.5 -182 +128 -20.7%
MIN -1.5 +150 -128 +16.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +22.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -27.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Minnesota Twins (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -142 | Edge: 10.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00347
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 22.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00348
[HMC] Minnesota Twins -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +150 | Edge: 16.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00349
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 5.75 ERA: 3.37
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 0.97
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 7.92
BB/9: 5.0 BB/9: 1.76
FIP: 5.66 FIP: 4.3
IP: 36.0 IP: 54.3
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Shota Imanaga)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
Record 26-18 29-18
R/Game 4.95 5.13 4.42
RA/Game 3.57 4.23 4.41
OPS 0.693 0.749 0.708
wOBA 0.300 0.324 0.306
ERA 3.29 3.99 4.09
FIP 3.22 4.28 3.96
WHIP 1.21 1.20 1.31
K/9 9.80 8.24 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.646 0.587 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.36 3.80 4.05
BP FIP 3.23 4.36 3.89
BP WHIP 1.30 1.24
BP K/9 9.28 8.12
BP Quality* 39.0 48.3 44.8
BP IP 179.3 170.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Ryan Rolison (3 consecutive days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9769 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 0.9769)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.0 - CHC 5.8
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.0 - CHC 5.8
Win Probability: MIL 43.0% - CHC 57.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +132 / CHC -132
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 8.5: 67.0%
Under 8.5: 33.0%
MIL -1.5: 29.9%
CHC +1.5: 70.1%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 1.256 / CHC 0.975
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.871 / CHC 1.078
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.7 - CHC 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.7 - CHC 3.7
F5 Win Prob: MIL 36.9% - CHC 63.1% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +171 / CHC -171
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -120 +132 -11.5%
CHC ML +102 -132 +7.4%
MIL -1.5 +142 +234 -11.4%
CHC +1.5 -172 -234 +6.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +14.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -19.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00350
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Jose Quintana
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 10.3 K/9: 5.71
BB/9: 3.74 BB/9: 3.58
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 4.82
IP: 48.0 IP: 34.0
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 5.2
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX COL Lg Avg
Record 22-24 18-29
R/Game 3.72 4.23 4.42
RA/Game 3.65 5.17 4.41
OPS 0.672 0.710 0.708
wOBA 0.294 0.307 0.306
ERA 3.54 4.91 4.09
FIP 3.88 4.57 3.96
WHIP 1.21 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.69 7.58 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.410 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.03 4.22 4.05
BP FIP 3.70 3.89 3.89
BP WHIP 1.23 1.32
BP K/9 7.51 8.69
BP Quality* 40.0 48.0 44.8
BP IP 154.7 213.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blas Castaño (45 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 42°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 26%
Conditions: Cold (42°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0004 (Temp: 0.9644 | Wind: 1.0374)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.7 - COL 4.7
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.7 - COL 4.7
Win Probability: TEX 49.5% - COL 50.5%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +102 / COL -102
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.5: 44.9%
Under 9.5: 55.1%
TEX -1.5: 34.4%
COL +1.5: 65.6%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.990 / COL 1.158
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.893 / COL 1.071
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.7 - COL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.7 - COL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: TEX 50.7% - COL 49.3% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -103 / COL +103
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -148 +102 -10.1%
COL ML +126 -102 +6.2%
TEX -1.5 +108 +191 -13.7%
COL +1.5 -130 -191 +9.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -7.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +2.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [-130]
Model: 65.6% | Market: 56.5% | Edge: 9.1%
Fair ML: -191 | Kelly: 5.25%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00351
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: J.T. Ginn Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 4.69 ERA: 3.29
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 9.3 K/9: 8.56
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 5.6
FIP: 4.33 FIP: 4.02
IP: 43.3 IP: 27.3
xERA: 3.74 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
Record 23-23 16-31
R/Game 4.35 3.96 4.42
RA/Game 4.63 5.23 4.41
OPS 0.729 0.688 0.708
wOBA 0.313 0.300 0.306
ERA 4.32 4.91 4.09
FIP 4.56 4.16 3.96
WHIP 1.46 1.45 1.31
K/9 7.93 8.73 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.375 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.68 5.47 4.05
BP FIP 4.09 4.51 3.89
BP WHIP 1.46 1.53
BP K/9 8.51 8.90
BP Quality* 51.8 58.5 44.8
BP IP 171.3 176.0
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9687 (Temp: 0.9936 | Wind: 0.9749)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.8 - LAA 4.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.8 - LAA 4.3
Win Probability: ATH 54.5% - LAA 45.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATH -120 / LAA +120
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
ATH -1.5: 38.9%
ATH +1.5: 70.3%
LAA -1.5: 29.7%
LAA +1.5: 61.1%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.030 / LAA 1.042
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.156 / LAA 1.306
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.4 - LAA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.4 - LAA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATH 53.0% - LAA 47.0% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -113 / LAA +113
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Michael King
ERA: 2.74 ERA: 3.23
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 10.01 K/9: 9.19
BB/9: 2.77 BB/9: 3.36
FIP: 3.08 FIP: 4.02
IP: 50.0 IP: 51.3
xERA: 2.74 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.259 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
Record 29-18 28-18
R/Game 5.28 4.24 4.42
RA/Game 3.28 4.09 4.41
OPS 0.778 0.667 0.708
wOBA 0.333 0.288 0.306
ERA 3.21 4.02 4.09
FIP 3.31 3.43 3.96
WHIP 1.10 1.25 1.31
K/9 9.17 8.85 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.705 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.24 3.42 4.05
BP FIP 2.87 2.95 3.89
BP WHIP 1.17 1.20
BP K/9 9.53 9.59
BP Quality* 41.9 41.5 44.8
BP IP 147.3 189.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wyatt Mills (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Charlie Barnes (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9742 (Temp: 0.9891 | Wind: 0.9850)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.6 - SD 3.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.6 - SD 3.2
Win Probability: LAD 63.9% - SD 36.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -177 / SD +177
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 38.0%
Under 8.5: 62.0%
LAD -1.5: 46.4%
SD +1.5: 53.6%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.703 / SD 0.956
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.935 / SD 0.926
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.6 - SD 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.6 - SD 1.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 68.7% - SD 31.3% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -219 / SD +219
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -156 -177 +3.0%
SD ML +132 +177 -7.0%
LAD -1.5 +105 +115 -2.4%
SD +1.5 -126 -115 -2.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -14.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -163 | Kelly: 5.02%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00352
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robbie Ray Home: Zac Gallen
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 4.88
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 9.07 K/9: 7.65
BB/9: 3.59 BB/9: 3.05
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 4.44
IP: 50.3 IP: 43.0
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: SF (Robbie Ray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
Record 20-27 22-23
R/Game 3.51 4.40 4.42
RA/Game 4.30 4.78 4.41
OPS 0.668 0.699 0.708
wOBA 0.286 0.301 0.306
ERA 3.97 4.39 4.09
FIP 4.08 4.13 3.96
WHIP 1.32 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.02 7.57 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.408 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.45 4.50 4.05
BP FIP 3.96 3.84 3.89
BP WHIP 1.32 1.18
BP K/9 7.60 7.77
BP Quality* 44.9 46.3 44.8
BP IP 156.3 154.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0117 (Temp: 1.0154 | Wind: 0.9963)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.8 - ARI 4.4
Simulated Avg: SF 3.8 - ARI 4.4
Win Probability: SF 43.1% - ARI 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: SF +132 / ARI -132
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 42.6%
Under 8.5: 57.4%
SF +1.5: 60.4%
ARI -1.5: 39.6%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.933 / ARI 1.098
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.002 / ARI 1.033
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.2 - ARI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.2 - ARI 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 46.7% - ARI 53.3% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +114 / ARI -114
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +100 +132 -6.9%
ARI ML -118 -132 +2.8%
SF +1.5 -196 -152 -5.9%
ARI -1.5 +162 +152 +1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -9.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Noah Schultz Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 4.91 ERA: 3.19
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 0.95
K/9: 7.98 K/9: 9.15
BB/9: 6.44 BB/9: 1.73
FIP: 4.36 FIP: 3.37
IP: 29.3 IP: 53.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS SEA Lg Avg
Record 24-22 22-26
R/Game 4.59 4.12 4.42
RA/Game 4.74 4.00 4.41
OPS 0.737 0.695 0.708
wOBA 0.314 0.305 0.306
ERA 4.35 3.75 4.09
FIP 4.27 3.57 3.96
WHIP 1.38 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.04 8.57 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 3.08 4.05
BP FIP 4.40 3.21 3.89
BP WHIP 1.44 1.34
BP K/9 8.02 8.82
BP Quality* 56.0 44.3 44.8
BP IP 204.3 152.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (32 pitches yesterday)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Domingo Gonzalez (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9797 (Temp: 0.9882 | Wind: 0.9913)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 3.6 - SEA 4.5
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.6 - SEA 4.5
Win Probability: CWS 40.2% - SEA 59.8%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +149 / SEA -149
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.6%
Under 7.5: 47.4%
CWS +1.5: 57.8%
SEA -1.5: 42.2%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 1.118 / SEA 0.787
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.250 / SEA 0.989
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 1.8 - SEA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.8 - SEA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CWS 39.8% - SEA 60.2% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +151 / SEA -151
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +140 +149 -1.5%
SEA ML -166 -149 -2.6%
CWS +1.5 -162 -137 -4.0%
SEA -1.5 +134 +137 -0.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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