2026-05-19
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-19
Games: 15 | Plays: 6
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Martín Pérez Home: Braxton Garrett
ERA: 3.36 ERA: 33.75
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 6.75
K/9: 7.06 K/9: 20.25
BB/9: 3.43 BB/9: 33.75
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 10.02
IP: 36.0 IP: 1.3
xERA: 5.37 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Martín Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
Record 32-16 22-26
R/Game 5.21 4.44 4.44
RA/Game 3.42 4.46 4.43
OPS 0.765 0.705 0.709
wOBA 0.327 0.308 0.307
ERA 3.14 4.14 4.11
FIP 3.75 3.76 3.97
WHIP 1.15 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.79 8.52 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.684 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.29 3.25 4.08
BP FIP 3.53 3.29 3.91
BP WHIP 1.12 1.17
BP K/9 9.18 9.07
BP Quality* 41.6 41.2 45.0
BP IP 166.7 168.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Bummer (42 pitches yesterday)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0307 (Temp: 1.0156 | Wind: 1.0149)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 6.5 - MIA 4.3
Simulated Avg: ATL 6.5 - MIA 4.3
Win Probability: ATL 67.2% - MIA 32.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -205 / MIA +205
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 8.5: 66.7%
Under 8.5: 33.3%
ATL -1.5: 53.8%
MIA +1.5: 46.2%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.058 / MIA 1.600
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.924 / MIA 0.916
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 4.4 - MIA 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 4.4 - MIA 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 72.5% - MIA 27.6% (Tie: 11.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -263 / MIA +263
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -138 -205 +9.2%
MIA ML +118 +205 -13.1%
ATL -1.5 +116 -117 +7.5%
MIA +1.5 -140 +117 -12.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +14.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -19.1%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line) [+116]
Model: 53.8% | Market: 46.3% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -117 | Kelly: 3.50%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00353
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00354
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Parker Messick Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 2.62 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.91 K/9: 6.95
BB/9: 1.61 BB/9: 2.84
FIP: 2.94 FIP: 4.6
IP: 53.7 IP: 44.3
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
Record 27-22 20-28
R/Game 4.45 3.96 4.44
RA/Game 4.06 4.35 4.43
OPS 0.708 0.699 0.709
wOBA 0.308 0.307 0.307
ERA 3.82 4.03 4.11
FIP 3.89 3.73 3.97
WHIP 1.27 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.33 8.37 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.542 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.96 3.95 4.08
BP FIP 3.75 3.99 3.91
BP WHIP 1.27 1.37
BP K/9 10.12 8.49
BP Quality* 42.8 49.7 45.0
BP IP 163.7 186.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Enmanuel De Jesus (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Connor Seabold (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 32%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9902 (Temp: 1.0084 | Wind: 0.9819)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 4.7 - DET 3.2
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.7 - DET 3.2
Win Probability: CLE 65.5% - DET 34.4%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -190 / DET +190
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.0: 39.4%
Under 8.0: 49.9%
CLE -1.5: 48.5%
DET +1.5: 51.5%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.707 / DET 1.101
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.951 / DET 1.104
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.6 - DET 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.6 - DET 1.5
F5 Win Prob: CLE 70.3% - DET 29.7% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -237 / DET +237
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -120 -190 +11.0%
DET ML +102 +190 -15.1%
CLE -1.5 +142 +106 +7.2%
DET +1.5 -172 -106 -11.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -13.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (Run Line) [+142]
Model: 48.5% | Market: 41.3% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: +106 | Kelly: 3.06%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00355
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Cleveland Guardians (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -120 | Edge: 11.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00356
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Griffin Jax
ERA: 2.96 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 12.38 K/9: 12.76
BB/9: 3.32 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 2.72 FIP: 2.73
IP: 47.0 IP: 23.0
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 3.26
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
Record 21-27 31-15
R/Game 4.40 4.85 4.44
RA/Game 5.52 4.09 4.43
OPS 0.704 0.727 0.709
wOBA 0.307 0.314 0.307
ERA 4.97 3.64 4.11
FIP 4.35 3.92 3.97
WHIP 1.47 1.20 1.31
K/9 8.31 7.77 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.397 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.66 4.44 4.08
BP FIP 4.07 4.31 3.91
BP WHIP 1.38 1.32
BP K/9 8.74 8.06
BP Quality* 52.4 55.4 45.0
BP IP 185.3 184.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dietrich Enns (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cameron Foster (35 pitches yesterday)
TB: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Bigge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Solesky (58 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.4 - TB 4.2
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.4 - TB 4.2
Win Probability: BAL 51.1% - TB 48.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -104 / TB +104
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.9%
Under 7.5: 42.1%
BAL +1.5: 67.5%
TB -1.5: 32.5%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 0.708 / TB 0.939
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.164 / TB 1.231
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.2 - TB 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.2 - TB 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BAL 56.3% - TB 43.7% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -129 / TB +129
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +106 -104 +2.5%
TB ML -124 +104 -6.4%
BAL +1.5 -205 -208 +0.3%
TB -1.5 +168 +208 -4.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chase Burns Home: Jesús Luzardo
ERA: 3.88 ERA: 4.22
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 12.74 K/9: 10.7
BB/9: 3.25 BB/9: 2.68
FIP: 2.85 FIP: 2.79
IP: 53.0 IP: 49.7
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 3.33
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PHI Lg Avg
Record 24-24 25-23
R/Game 4.33 4.25 4.44
RA/Game 5.08 4.58 4.43
OPS 0.702 0.698 0.709
wOBA 0.304 0.302 0.307
ERA 4.82 4.21 4.11
FIP 4.95 3.35 3.97
WHIP 1.49 1.35 1.31
K/9 7.75 9.60 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.427 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.06 3.84 4.08
BP FIP 5.10 3.15 3.91
BP WHIP 1.58 1.31
BP K/9 8.90 9.79
BP Quality* 60.4 40.0 45.0
BP IP 185.0 175.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Connor Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0149 (Temp: 1.0339 | Wind: 0.9816)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.7 - PHI 4.7
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.8 - PHI 4.7
Win Probability: CIN 40.7% - PHI 59.3%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +146 / PHI -146
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 44.8%
Under 8.5: 55.2%
CIN +1.5: 57.7%
PHI -1.5: 42.3%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.810 / PHI 0.812
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.342 / PHI 0.889
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.0 - PHI 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.0 - PHI 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CIN 49.9% - PHI 50.1% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +100 / PHI -100
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +120 +146 -4.8%
PHI ML -142 -146 +0.6%
CIN +1.5 -178 -136 -6.3%
PHI -1.5 +146 +136 +1.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nolan McLean Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 2.28 ERA: 3.53
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 10.77 K/9: 8.65
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 2.73 FIP: 4.28
IP: 52.3 IP: 51.0
xERA: 3.51 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
Record 21-26 23-25
R/Game 4.09 5.46 4.44
RA/Game 4.23 5.92 4.43
OPS 0.653 0.740 0.709
wOBA 0.283 0.316 0.307
ERA 3.76 5.04 4.11
FIP 3.42 4.77 3.97
WHIP 1.29 1.44 1.31
K/9 9.49 7.78 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.40 5.01 4.08
BP FIP 3.40 4.81 3.91
BP WHIP 1.29 1.46
BP K/9 9.44 7.04
BP Quality* 44.2 61.0 45.0
BP IP 198.3 226.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Paxton Schultz (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: PJ Poulin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mitchell Parker (42 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0107 (Temp: 1.0274 | Wind: 0.9837)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.5 - WSH 4.5
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.5 - WSH 4.5
Win Probability: NYM 49.4% - WSH 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +102 / WSH -102
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.0: 40.6%
Under 9.0: 49.4%
NYM -1.5: 33.7%
WSH +1.5: 66.3%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.703 / WSH 0.968
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.982 / WSH 1.356
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.2 - WSH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.1 - WSH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYM 50.4% - WSH 49.6% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -102 / WSH +102
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -154 +102 -11.2%
WSH ML +130 -102 +7.1%
NYM -1.5 +108 +197 -14.4%
WSH +1.5 -130 -197 +9.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-130]
Model: 66.3% | Market: 56.5% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -197 | Kelly: 5.65%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00357
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dylan Cease Home: Will Warren
ERA: 4.0 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 11.87 K/9: 9.93
BB/9: 3.75 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 2.98 FIP: 3.72
IP: 52.3 IP: 47.3
xERA: 3.46 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
Record 21-26 29-19
R/Game 4.13 5.08 4.44
RA/Game 4.38 3.65 4.43
OPS 0.679 0.766 0.709
wOBA 0.293 0.328 0.307
ERA 4.03 3.35 4.11
FIP 3.60 3.36 3.97
WHIP 1.30 1.17 1.31
K/9 9.08 8.93 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.648 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 3.57 4.08
BP FIP 3.52 3.59 3.91
BP WHIP 1.31 1.29
BP K/9 9.67 8.69
BP Quality* 47.2 51.8 45.0
BP IP 196.3 163.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yariel Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: David Bednar (B2B, 36 pitches)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0032 (Temp: 1.0263 | Wind: 0.9776)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.3 - NYY 4.8
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.3 - NYY 4.8
Win Probability: TOR 45.6% - NYY 54.4%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +120 / NYY -120
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 51.5%
Under 8.5: 48.5%
TOR +1.5: 61.7%
NYY -1.5: 38.3%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.828 / NYY 1.006
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.049 / NYY 1.151
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.3 - NYY 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.3 - NYY 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 48.5% - NYY 51.5% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +106 / NYY -106
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +120 +120 +0.1%
NYY ML -142 -120 -4.2%
TOR +1.5 -170 -161 -1.3%
NYY -1.5 +140 +161 -3.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Bailey Falter
ERA: 3.03 ERA: 4.45
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 8.52 K/9: 5.82
BB/9: 2.18 BB/9: 3.3
FIP: 3.03 FIP: 4.88
IP: 44.3 IP: 5.3
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 4.9
xwOBA: 0.278 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS KC Lg Avg
Record 20-27 20-28
R/Game 3.62 3.96 4.44
RA/Game 4.00 4.44 4.43
OPS 0.667 0.700 0.709
wOBA 0.293 0.304 0.307
ERA 3.75 4.26 4.11
FIP 4.05 4.23 3.97
WHIP 1.24 1.36 1.31
K/9 8.30 8.47 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.11 4.40 4.08
BP FIP 3.75 4.53 3.91
BP WHIP 1.18 1.47
BP K/9 8.72 8.57
BP Quality* 41.1 50.2 45.0
BP IP 179.7 161.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0168 (Temp: 0.9810 | Wind: 1.0365)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.8 - KC 3.3
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.8 - KC 3.3
Win Probability: BOS 55.4% - KC 44.6%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -124 / KC +124
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.5: 41.6%
Under 7.5: 58.4%
BOS -1.5: 36.9%
KC +1.5: 63.1%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.748 / KC 1.046
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.913 / KC 1.116
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.1 - KC 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.1 - KC 1.7
F5 Win Prob: BOS 58.5% - KC 41.5% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -141 / KC +141
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -132 -124 -1.5%
KC ML +112 +124 -2.6%
BOS -1.5 +134 +171 -5.8%
KC +1.5 -162 -171 +1.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -10.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Lance McCullers Jr. Home: Zebby Matthews
ERA: 6.59 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 1.75 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 9.9 K/9: 9.88
BB/9: 6.04 BB/9: 2.68
FIP: 5.26 FIP: 3.71
IP: 39.3 IP: 7.0
xERA: 5.34 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Zebby Matthews)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU MIN Lg Avg
Record 19-30 22-26
R/Game 4.39 4.69 4.44
RA/Game 5.49 4.75 4.43
OPS 0.738 0.711 0.709
wOBA 0.316 0.310 0.307
ERA 5.45 4.32 4.11
FIP 4.82 3.97 3.97
WHIP 1.55 1.35 1.31
K/9 8.80 7.66 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.399 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.82 5.17 4.08
BP FIP 5.31 4.21 3.91
BP WHIP 1.61 1.58
BP K/9 8.37 7.31
BP Quality* 61.1 61.4 45.0
BP IP 201.0 172.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Justin Topa (B2B, 31 pitches)
TIRED: Eric Orze (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 48°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (48°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9864 (Temp: 0.9706 | Wind: 1.0162)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.2 - MIN 6.5
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.2 - MIN 6.5
Win Probability: HOU 39.4% - MIN 60.6%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +154 / MIN -154
Avg Total Runs: 11.7
Over 8.5: 73.1%
Under 8.5: 26.9%
HOU +1.5: 52.6%
MIN -1.5: 47.4%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.368 / MIN 1.104
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.358 / MIN 1.364
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.6 - MIN 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.6 - MIN 3.6
F5 Win Prob: HOU 37.1% - MIN 62.9% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +169 / MIN -169
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +120 +154 -6.0%
MIN ML -142 -154 +1.9%
HOU +1.5 -178 -111 -11.5%
MIN -1.5 +146 +111 +6.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +20.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -25.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 20.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00358
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: Ben Brown
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 5.67
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 12.44 K/9: 10.17
BB/9: 3.91 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 3.07 FIP: 3.84
IP: 51.0 IP: 33.7
xERA: 3.41 xERA: 4.55
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
Record 27-18 29-19
R/Game 5.04 5.08 4.44
RA/Game 3.56 4.33 4.43
OPS 0.701 0.747 0.709
wOBA 0.303 0.323 0.307
ERA 3.28 4.10 4.11
FIP 3.22 4.32 3.97
WHIP 1.21 1.22 1.31
K/9 9.80 8.15 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.655 0.573 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.28 3.75 4.08
BP FIP 3.18 4.32 3.91
BP WHIP 1.29 1.24
BP K/9 9.31 8.01
BP Quality* 39.9 49.5 45.0
BP IP 183.7 175.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Shane Drohan (42 pitches yesterday)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ty Blach (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0076 (Temp: 0.9936 | Wind: 1.0141)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.7 - CHC 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.7 - CHC 4.6
Win Probability: MIL 59.7% - CHC 40.3%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -148 / CHC +148
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.0: 62.9%
Under 8.0: 27.9%
MIL -1.5: 45.2%
CHC +1.5: 54.8%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.819 / CHC 1.106
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.887 / CHC 1.100
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.2 - CHC 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.2 - CHC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 60.9% - CHC 39.1% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -156 / CHC +156
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -116 -148 +6.0%
CHC ML -102 +148 -10.2%
MIL -1.5 +146 +121 +4.5%
CHC +1.5 -176 -121 -8.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +10.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -24.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00359
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mitch Keller Home: Matthew Liberatore
ERA: 4.04 ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.36 K/9: 7.05
BB/9: 2.59 BB/9: 2.65
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 4.26
IP: 52.7 IP: 47.0
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Mitch Keller)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
Record 24-23 27-19
R/Game 4.87 4.52 4.44
RA/Game 4.49 4.46 4.43
OPS 0.720 0.709 0.709
wOBA 0.313 0.305 0.307
ERA 3.88 4.12 4.11
FIP 3.49 4.29 3.97
WHIP 1.23 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.84 7.15 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.537 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 4.46 4.08
BP FIP 3.71 4.25 3.91
BP WHIP 1.36 1.41
BP K/9 9.02 7.81
BP Quality* 48.8 50.2 45.0
BP IP 186.7 169.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 32%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0151 (Temp: 0.9978 | Wind: 1.0173)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.3 - STL 4.8
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.2 - STL 4.8
Win Probability: PIT 54.3% - STL 45.7%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -119 / STL +119
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.0: 60.0%
Under 8.0: 30.5%
PIT -1.5: 39.8%
STL +1.5: 60.2%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.982 / STL 1.088
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.084 / STL 1.116
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.9 - STL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.9 - STL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: PIT 56.6% - STL 43.4% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -130 / STL +130
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -108 -119 +2.3%
STL ML -108 +119 -6.2%
PIT -1.5 +155 +152 +0.5%
STL +1.5 -188 -152 -5.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -150 | Kelly: 3.97%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00360
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kumar Rocker Home: Sammy Peralta
ERA: 5.42 ERA: 7.59
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.88
K/9: 7.69 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 3.42 BB/9: 5.06
FIP: 4.57 FIP: 3.29
IP: 37.3 IP: 10.7
xERA: 5.73 xERA: 3.51
xwOBA: 0.364 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: COL (Sammy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX COL Lg Avg
Record 22-25 19-29
R/Game 3.77 4.29 4.44
RA/Game 3.72 5.19 4.43
OPS 0.675 0.708 0.709
wOBA 0.295 0.307 0.307
ERA 3.58 4.93 4.11
FIP 3.86 4.56 3.97
WHIP 1.21 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.66 7.59 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.414 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.06 4.28 4.08
BP FIP 3.66 3.88 3.91
BP WHIP 1.21 1.32
BP K/9 7.40 8.72
BP Quality* 42.8 49.7 45.0
BP IP 161.7 216.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gavin Collyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (44 pitches yesterday)
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 41°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 40%
Conditions: Cold (41°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9800 (Temp: 0.9633 | Wind: 1.0174)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 5.5 - COL 5.6
Simulated Avg: TEX 5.5 - COL 5.6
Win Probability: TEX 48.6% - COL 51.4%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +106 / COL -106
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 10.5: 50.7%
Under 10.5: 49.3%
TEX -1.5: 35.2%
COL +1.5: 64.8%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 1.262 / COL 1.458
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.951 / COL 1.104
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 3.4 - COL 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 3.4 - COL 3.4
F5 Win Prob: TEX 49.9% - COL 50.1% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +100 / COL -100
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -126 +106 -7.2%
COL ML +108 -106 +3.4%
TEX -1.5 +122 +184 -9.9%
COL +1.5 -146 -184 +5.5%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -1.7%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob Lopez Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 4.47 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.99 K/9: 10.89
BB/9: 4.15 BB/9: 3.42
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 3.0
IP: 40.3 IP: 49.3
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 3.61
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
Record 23-24 17-31
R/Game 4.28 3.92 4.44
RA/Game 4.57 5.15 4.43
OPS 0.725 0.682 0.709
wOBA 0.312 0.298 0.307
ERA 4.28 4.81 4.11
FIP 4.52 4.14 3.97
WHIP 1.44 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.00 8.67 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.378 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.68 5.43 4.08
BP FIP 4.09 4.50 3.91
BP WHIP 1.46 1.53
BP K/9 8.51 8.85
BP Quality* 48.8 56.8 45.0
BP IP 171.3 179.0
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 1.0071 | Wind: 0.9961)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.3 - LAA 4.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.3 - LAA 4.3
Win Probability: ATH 50.3% - LAA 49.7%
Fair Moneyline: ATH -101 / LAA +101
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
ATH -1.5: 34.1%
ATH +1.5: 66.7%
LAA -1.5: 33.3%
LAA +1.5: 65.9%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.032 / LAA 0.844
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.084 / LAA 1.262
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.0 - LAA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.0 - LAA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 44.8% - LAA 55.2% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +123 / LAA -123
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emmet Sheehan Home: Griffin Canning
ERA: 3.21 ERA: 4.36
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 10.84 K/9: 8.52
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 4.41
FIP: 3.04 FIP: 4.02
IP: 41.7 IP: 11.0
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 4.7
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Emmet Sheehan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
Record 29-19 29-18
R/Game 5.17 4.17 4.44
RA/Game 3.23 4.00 4.43
OPS 0.772 0.663 0.709
wOBA 0.331 0.287 0.307
ERA 3.17 3.93 4.11
FIP 3.31 3.41 3.97
WHIP 1.10 1.24 1.31
K/9 9.17 8.87 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.703 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.22 3.38 4.08
BP FIP 2.87 2.99 3.91
BP WHIP 1.17 1.21
BP K/9 9.47 9.53
BP Quality* 35.8 38.7 45.0
BP IP 148.3 191.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9965 (Temp: 0.9965 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.6 - SD 3.1
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.5 - SD 3.1
Win Probability: LAD 64.8% - SD 35.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -184 / SD +184
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.5: 36.8%
Under 8.5: 63.2%
LAD -1.5: 47.0%
SD +1.5: 53.0%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.747 / SD 0.998
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.796 / SD 0.860
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - SD 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - SD 1.7
F5 Win Prob: LAD 68.0% - SD 32.0% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -212 / SD +212
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -156 -184 +3.8%
SD ML +132 +184 -7.9%
LAD -1.5 +106 +113 -1.5%
SD +1.5 -128 -113 -3.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -15.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +10.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00361
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Landen Roupp Home: Ryne Nelson
ERA: 3.72 ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 9.13 K/9: 7.94
BB/9: 3.82 BB/9: 2.5
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 3.9
IP: 49.0 IP: 45.0
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
Record 20-28 23-23
R/Game 3.48 4.57 4.44
RA/Game 4.46 4.72 4.43
OPS 0.668 0.709 0.709
wOBA 0.286 0.305 0.307
ERA 4.11 4.33 4.11
FIP 4.12 4.11 3.97
WHIP 1.34 1.28 1.31
K/9 7.93 7.56 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.388 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 4.41 4.08
BP FIP 3.92 3.80 3.91
BP WHIP 1.32 1.18
BP K/9 7.54 7.74
BP Quality* 43.2 50.4 45.0
BP IP 160.0 157.0
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0184 (Temp: 1.0195 | Wind: 0.9989)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.6 - ARI 4.5
Simulated Avg: SF 3.6 - ARI 4.5
Win Probability: SF 40.2% - ARI 59.8%
Fair Moneyline: SF +149 / ARI -149
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.5: 41.3%
Under 8.5: 58.7%
SF -1.5: 24.5%
ARI +1.5: 75.5%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.925 / ARI 0.952
Bullpen Adj: SF 0.960 / ARI 1.120
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.9 - ARI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.9 - ARI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SF 39.8% - ARI 60.2% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +152 / ARI -152
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +100 +149 -9.8%
ARI ML -118 -149 +5.7%
SF -1.5 +160 +309 -14.0%
ARI +1.5 -194 -309 +9.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -11.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +6.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (Run Line) [-194]
Model: 75.5% | Market: 66.0% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -309 | Kelly: 7.02%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00362
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Anthony Kay Home: Bryce Miller
ERA: 4.61 ERA: 5.61
WHIP: 1.54 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 6.37 K/9: 7.3
BB/9: 4.17 BB/9: 3.34
FIP: 4.98 FIP: 5.04
IP: 41.0 IP: 5.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 5.27
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS SEA Lg Avg
Record 24-23 23-26
R/Game 4.51 4.16 4.44
RA/Game 4.77 3.94 4.43
OPS 0.734 0.696 0.709
wOBA 0.313 0.305 0.307
ERA 4.40 3.69 4.11
FIP 4.28 3.56 3.97
WHIP 1.37 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.08 8.62 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.475 0.525 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 3.08 4.08
BP FIP 4.43 3.27 3.91
BP WHIP 1.44 1.34
BP K/9 8.04 8.83
BP Quality* 53.4 40.1 45.0
BP IP 207.0 155.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Domingo Gonzalez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Cool (57°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9957 (Temp: 0.9824 | Wind: 1.0135)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 3.9 - SEA 4.7
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.9 - SEA 4.7
Win Probability: CWS 42.0% - SEA 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +138 / SEA -138
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.8%
Under 7.5: 42.2%
CWS +1.5: 59.0%
SEA -1.5: 41.0%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 1.176 / SEA 0.991
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.187 / SEA 0.891
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.3 - SEA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.3 - SEA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CWS 45.9% - SEA 54.1% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +118 / SEA -118
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +128 +138 -1.8%
SEA ML -152 -138 -2.3%
CWS +1.5 -170 -144 -4.0%
SEA -1.5 +140 +144 -0.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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