2026-05-21
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-21
Games: 7 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 3.26 ERA: 3.58
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 9.59 K/9: 8.62
BB/9: 4.06 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 3.74 FIP: 3.55
IP: 50.3 IP: 37.0
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
Record 29-22 20-30
R/Game 4.41 3.90 4.43
RA/Game 4.00 4.32 4.42
OPS 0.703 0.692 0.708
wOBA 0.306 0.304 0.306
ERA 3.72 3.98 4.10
FIP 3.85 3.72 3.96
WHIP 1.26 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.37 8.31 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.545 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.82 3.90 4.04
BP FIP 3.68 3.91 3.88
BP WHIP 1.28 1.36
BP K/9 10.34 8.40
BP Quality* 46.6 49.1 44.7
BP IP 169.7 196.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brant Hurter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Will Vest (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 4.1 - DET 3.7
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.2 - DET 3.7
Win Probability: CLE 54.1% - DET 45.9%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -118 / DET +118
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.5: 50.2%
Under 7.5: 49.8%
CLE +1.5: 71.2%
DET -1.5: 28.8%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.880 / DET 0.877
Bullpen Adj: CLE 1.043 / DET 1.098
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.1 - DET 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.1 - DET 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CLE 53.7% - DET 46.3% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -116 / DET +116
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +102 -118 +4.6%
DET ML -120 +118 -8.6%
CLE +1.5 -220 -247 +2.4%
DET -1.5 +180 +247 -6.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -2.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Dustin May
ERA: 2.81 ERA: 4.92
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 9.15 K/9: 7.88
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 3.54
FIP: 2.75 FIP: 4.33
IP: 55.3 IP: 48.7
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 5.2
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
Record 25-24 28-20
R/Game 4.94 4.52 4.43
RA/Game 4.49 4.54 4.42
OPS 0.724 0.710 0.708
wOBA 0.315 0.305 0.306
ERA 3.89 4.21 4.10
FIP 3.58 4.23 3.96
WHIP 1.23 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.74 7.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.543 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 4.53 4.04
BP FIP 3.86 4.16 3.88
BP WHIP 1.36 1.42
BP K/9 9.09 7.86
BP Quality* 46.6 50.1 44.7
BP IP 194.0 178.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Pushard (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 5.5 - STL 3.9
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.5 - STL 3.9
Win Probability: PIT 64.3% - STL 35.7%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -180 / STL +180
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 65.3%
Under 7.5: 34.7%
PIT -1.5: 49.3%
STL +1.5: 50.7%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.732 / STL 1.166
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.043 / STL 1.121
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 3.1 - STL 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.1 - STL 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PIT 70.3% - STL 29.7% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -237 / STL +237
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -132 -180 +7.4%
STL ML +112 +180 -11.4%
PIT -1.5 +132 +103 +6.2%
STL +1.5 -160 -103 -10.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00592
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: David Peterson Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.39 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 8.22 K/9: 8.15
BB/9: 3.48 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 3.25 FIP: 3.85
IP: 43.3 IP: 46.7
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: NYM (David Peterson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
Record 21-28 25-25
R/Game 4.12 5.58 4.43
RA/Game 4.41 5.88 4.42
OPS 0.658 0.744 0.708
wOBA 0.284 0.318 0.306
ERA 3.91 5.04 4.10
FIP 3.50 4.78 3.96
WHIP 1.29 1.42 1.31
K/9 9.37 7.81 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.48 4.95 4.04
BP FIP 3.42 4.80 3.88
BP WHIP 1.28 1.43
BP K/9 9.29 7.14
BP Quality* 43.0 54.5 44.7
BP IP 204.3 234.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Austin Warren (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Andrew Alvarez (56 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.3 - WSH 5.4
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.3 - WSH 5.4
Win Probability: NYM 39.4% - WSH 60.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +154 / WSH -154
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.3%
Under 8.5: 42.7%
NYM -1.5: 25.7%
WSH +1.5: 74.3%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.978 / WSH 0.984
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.962 / WSH 1.219
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Win Prob: NYM 37.0% - WSH 63.0% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +170 / WSH -170
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -112 +154 -13.4%
WSH ML -104 -154 +9.6%
NYM -1.5 +150 +289 -14.3%
WSH +1.5 -182 -289 +9.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-182]
Model: 74.3% | Market: 64.5% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -289 | Kelly: 6.89%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00594
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Spencer Strider Home: Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 4.28 ERA: 4.84
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.55 K/9: 7.05
BB/9: 3.87 BB/9: 2.91
FIP: 4.25 FIP: 3.91
IP: 14.7 IP: 63.7
xERA: 4.93 xERA: 4.64
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Sandy Alcantara)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
Record 34-16 22-28
R/Game 5.34 4.36 4.43
RA/Game 3.38 4.62 4.42
OPS 0.768 0.697 0.708
wOBA 0.329 0.305 0.306
ERA 3.11 4.30 4.10
FIP 3.69 3.81 3.96
WHIP 1.14 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.86 8.52 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.698 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.18 3.38 4.04
BP FIP 3.53 3.32 3.88
BP WHIP 1.12 1.19
BP K/9 9.02 9.17
BP Quality* 39.8 43.4 44.7
BP IP 172.7 178.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Phillips (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 5.0 - MIA 3.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.0 - MIA 3.6
Win Probability: ATL 63.4% - MIA 36.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -173 / MIA +173
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.5: 57.5%
Under 7.5: 42.5%
ATL -1.5: 47.2%
MIA +1.5: 52.8%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.873 / MIA 1.073
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.890 / MIA 0.971
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.9 - MIA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.9 - MIA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: ATL 65.3% - MIA 34.7% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -188 / MIA +188
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -136 -173 +5.8%
MIA ML +116 +173 -9.7%
ATL -1.5 +126 +112 +3.0%
MIA +1.5 -152 -112 -7.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | May 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braydon Fisher Home: Carlos Rodón
ERA: 2.71 ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 11.08 K/9: 9.46
BB/9: 3.42 BB/9: 3.68
FIP: 2.82 FIP: 3.61
IP: 26.3 IP: 8.0
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 3.33
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Braydon Fisher)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
Record 22-27 30-20
R/Game 4.08 5.00 4.43
RA/Game 4.33 3.62 4.42
OPS 0.675 0.759 0.708
wOBA 0.292 0.325 0.306
ERA 4.00 3.34 4.10
FIP 3.58 3.30 3.96
WHIP 1.29 1.17 1.31
K/9 9.20 8.93 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.644 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.05 3.48 4.04
BP FIP 3.48 3.52 3.88
BP WHIP 1.31 1.27
BP K/9 9.65 8.75
BP Quality* 48.3 42.0 44.7
BP IP 202.3 170.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9760 (Temp: 0.9858 | Wind: 0.9900)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.4 - NYY 4.7
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.4 - NYY 4.7
Win Probability: TOR 35.9% - NYY 64.1%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +179 / NYY -179
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.5: 41.3%
Under 8.5: 58.7%
TOR +1.5: 53.1%
NYY -1.5: 46.9%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.850 / NYY 0.810
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.081 / NYY 0.940
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.8 - NYY 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.8 - NYY 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TOR 39.6% - NYY 60.4% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +152 / NYY -152
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +144 +179 -5.1%
NYY ML -172 -179 +0.9%
TOR +1.5 -146 -113 -6.2%
NYY -1.5 +122 +113 +1.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -11.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +6.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luis Severino Home: José Soriano
ERA: 4.51 ERA: 3.73
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.44 K/9: 8.67
BB/9: 3.44 BB/9: 4.08
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 3.51
IP: 54.7 IP: 59.7
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: LAA (José Soriano)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
Record 25-24 17-33
R/Game 4.51 3.98 4.43
RA/Game 4.61 5.34 4.42
OPS 0.730 0.688 0.708
wOBA 0.314 0.299 0.306
ERA 4.32 4.99 4.10
FIP 4.57 4.16 3.96
WHIP 1.43 1.45 1.31
K/9 7.90 8.71 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.369 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 5.60 4.04
BP FIP 3.98 4.66 3.88
BP WHIP 1.41 1.55
BP K/9 8.42 8.74
BP Quality* 53.4 59.8 44.7
BP IP 181.7 186.3
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Hogan Harris (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Scott Barlow (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (34 pitches yesterday)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9749 (Temp: 0.9959 | Wind: 0.9789)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.7 - LAA 4.5
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.7 - LAA 4.5
Win Probability: ATH 52.3% - LAA 47.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH -110 / LAA +110
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
ATH -1.5: 36.9%
ATH +1.5: 67.8%
LAA -1.5: 32.1%
LAA +1.5: 63.1%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.057 / LAA 0.915
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.195 / LAA 1.338
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.2 - LAA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.2 - LAA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 48.5% - LAA 51.5% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +106 / LAA -106
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | May 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zach Agnos Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 6.61 ERA: 4.38
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 5.46 K/9: 7.89
BB/9: 4.88 BB/9: 3.55
FIP: 5.59 FIP: 4.35
IP: 29.0 IP: 53.3
xERA: 6.52 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.384 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
Record 19-31 25-23
R/Game 4.20 4.60 4.43
RA/Game 5.28 4.65 4.42
OPS 0.698 0.715 0.708
wOBA 0.303 0.306 0.306
ERA 5.00 4.23 4.10
FIP 4.59 4.14 3.96
WHIP 1.47 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.55 7.47 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.397 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 4.17 4.04
BP FIP 3.88 3.77 3.88
BP WHIP 1.36 1.15
BP K/9 8.56 7.72
BP Quality* 50.3 46.2 44.7
BP IP 229.3 162.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0332 (Temp: 1.0258 | Wind: 1.0072)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.5 - ARI 6.2
Simulated Avg: COL 4.6 - ARI 6.2
Win Probability: COL 36.0% - ARI 64.0%
Fair Moneyline: COL +178 / ARI -178
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 9.0: 57.3%
Under 9.0: 33.7%
COL +1.5: 50.1%
ARI -1.5: 49.9%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.377 / ARI 1.076
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.125 / ARI 1.034
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - ARI 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - ARI 3.7
F5 Win Prob: COL 35.4% - ARI 64.6% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +182 / ARI -182
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +166 +178 -1.6%
ARI ML -198 -178 -2.5%
COL +1.5 -120 -100 -4.5%
ARI -1.5 +100 +100 -0.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +4.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -18.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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