2026-05-23
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-23
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andre Pallante Home: Chris Paddack
ERA: 4.98 ERA: 5.69
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 6.45 K/9: 6.62
BB/9: 3.45 BB/9: 2.24
FIP: 4.47 FIP: 4.86
IP: 49.0 IP: 35.7
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 5.03
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.344
Pitcher Edge: STL (Andre Pallante)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
Record 28-21 26-24
R/Game 4.47 4.42 4.40
RA/Game 4.57 4.98 4.40
OPS 0.709 0.706 0.706
wOBA 0.305 0.305 0.305
ERA 4.24 4.71 4.08
FIP 4.24 4.89 3.94
WHIP 1.38 1.46 1.30
K/9 7.27 7.86 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 4.98 4.02
BP FIP 4.19 5.02 3.88
BP WHIP 1.41 1.54
BP K/9 7.80 9.02
BP Quality* 53.2 54.9 44.5
BP IP 182.3 191.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Pushard (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: José Fermín, Thomas Saggese, Yohel Pozo, Pedro Pagés
José Fermín LF OPS: 0.794 (60 AB)
Thomas Saggese LF OPS: 0.641 (275 AB)
Yohel Pozo C OPS: 0.637 (160 AB)
Pedro Pagés C OPS: 0.635 (361 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.1% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: TJ Friedl, Will Benson
TJ Friedl CF OPS: 0.742 (579 AB)
Will Benson RF OPS: 0.708 (230 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 0.9996 | Wind: 1.0035)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 5.6 - CIN 5.3
Simulated Avg: STL 5.6 - CIN 5.3
Win Probability: STL 52.1% - CIN 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: STL -109 / CIN +109
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 9.5: 58.2%
Under 9.5: 41.8%
STL -1.5: 38.4%
CIN +1.5: 61.7%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.112 / CIN 1.257
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.196 / CIN 1.234
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 3.1 - CIN 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.2 - CIN 2.9
F5 Win Prob: STL 54.4% - CIN 45.6% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -119 / CIN +119
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -110 -109 -0.3%
CIN ML -106 +109 -3.6%
STL -1.5 +146 +161 -2.3%
CIN +1.5 -176 -161 -2.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +5.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -10.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (Game 2)
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Leahy Home: Chase Petty
ERA: 3.29 ERA: 4.76
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 7.8 K/9: 1.59
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 3.4 FIP: 6.08
IP: 45.7 IP: 5.7
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 11.12
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.471
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
Record 28-21 26-24
R/Game 4.47 4.42 4.40
RA/Game 4.57 4.98 4.40
OPS 0.709 0.706 0.706
wOBA 0.305 0.305 0.305
ERA 4.24 4.71 4.08
FIP 4.24 4.89 3.94
WHIP 1.38 1.46 1.30
K/9 7.27 7.86 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 4.98 4.02
BP FIP 4.19 5.02 3.88
BP WHIP 1.41 1.54
BP K/9 7.80 9.02
BP Quality* 57.7 54.9 44.5
BP IP 182.3 191.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Pushard (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: José Fermín, Thomas Saggese, Yohel Pozo, Pedro Pagés
José Fermín LF OPS: 0.794 (60 AB)
Thomas Saggese LF OPS: 0.641 (275 AB)
Yohel Pozo C OPS: 0.637 (160 AB)
Pedro Pagés C OPS: 0.635 (361 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.1% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: TJ Friedl, Will Benson
TJ Friedl CF OPS: 0.742 (579 AB)
Will Benson RF OPS: 0.708 (230 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 0.9996 | Wind: 1.0035)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 5.3 - CIN 5.0
Simulated Avg: STL 5.3 - CIN 5.0
Win Probability: STL 52.6% - CIN 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL -111 / CIN +111
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.5: 53.3%
Under 9.5: 46.7%
STL -1.5: 38.5%
CIN +1.5: 61.5%
Pitcher Adj: STL 0.914 / CIN 1.157
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.297 / CIN 1.234
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.9 - CIN 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.9 - CIN 2.3
F5 Win Prob: STL 58.7% - CIN 41.3% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -142 / CIN +142
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -110 -111 +0.2%
CIN ML -106 +111 -4.0%
STL -1.5 +146 +160 -2.2%
CIN +1.5 -176 -160 -2.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -5.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kai-Wei Teng Home: Colin Rea
ERA: 2.61 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.71 K/9: 7.27
BB/9: 3.48 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 3.97
IP: 31.0 IP: 47.0
xERA: 4.02 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Kai-Wei Teng)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CHC Lg Avg
Record 21-31 29-22
R/Game 4.27 4.86 4.40
RA/Game 5.31 4.35 4.40
OPS 0.724 0.731 0.706
wOBA 0.311 0.317 0.305
ERA 5.28 4.07 4.08
FIP 4.80 4.26 3.94
WHIP 1.52 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.64 8.18 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.402 0.550 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.70 3.61 4.02
BP FIP 5.23 4.25 3.88
BP WHIP 1.57 1.22
BP K/9 8.27 8.02
BP Quality* 58.5 48.5 44.5
BP IP 210.0 189.7
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9775 (Temp: 0.9882 | Wind: 0.9891)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.5 - CHC 5.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.5 - CHC 5.3
Win Probability: HOU 42.4% - CHC 57.6%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +136 / CHC -136
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 7.5: 67.7%
Under 7.5: 32.3%
HOU +1.5: 57.6%
CHC -1.5: 42.4%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 0.856 / CHC 1.031
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.315 / CHC 1.090
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.5 - CHC 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.5 - CHC 2.4
F5 Win Prob: HOU 51.5% - CHC 48.5% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -106 / CHC +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +126 +136 -1.8%
CHC ML -148 -136 -2.1%
HOU +1.5 -182 -136 -6.9%
CHC -1.5 +150 +136 +2.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +15.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -20.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00610
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Paul Skenes Home: Patrick Corbin
ERA: 2.16 ERA: 4.36
WHIP: 0.88 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 10.35 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 1.81 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 2.29 FIP: 4.16
IP: 55.0 IP: 38.3
xERA: 2.65 xERA: 4.77
xwOBA: 0.255 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT TOR Lg Avg
Record 26-25 24-27
R/Game 4.90 4.08 4.40
RA/Game 4.47 4.20 4.40
OPS 0.723 0.675 0.706
wOBA 0.314 0.292 0.305
ERA 3.86 3.88 4.08
FIP 3.53 3.48 3.94
WHIP 1.23 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.93 9.33 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.542 0.487 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 3.90 4.02
BP FIP 3.84 3.38 3.88
BP WHIP 1.38 1.29
BP K/9 9.14 9.75
BP Quality* 48.4 47.2 44.5
BP IP 199.0 212.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.2 - TOR 3.3
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.2 - TOR 3.3
Win Probability: PIT 68.1% - TOR 31.9%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -214 / TOR +214
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.0%
Under 7.5: 44.0%
PIT -1.5: 52.0%
TOR +1.5: 48.0%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.584 / TOR 1.084
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.088 / TOR 1.061
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.9 - TOR 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.9 - TOR 1.3
F5 Win Prob: PIT 77.3% - TOR 22.7% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -340 / TOR +340
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -154 -214 +7.5%
TOR ML +130 +214 -11.6%
PIT -1.5 +112 -108 +4.9%
TOR +1.5 -134 +108 -9.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Framber Valdez Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 3.92 ERA: 5.9
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 8.37 K/9: 7.23
BB/9: 3.26 BB/9: 3.57
FIP: 3.39 FIP: 5.3
IP: 55.0 IP: 29.7
xERA: 3.79 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET BAL Lg Avg
Record 20-32 22-29
R/Game 3.85 4.35 4.40
RA/Game 4.35 5.45 4.40
OPS 0.689 0.708 0.706
wOBA 0.302 0.307 0.305
ERA 3.97 4.95 4.08
FIP 3.74 4.28 3.94
WHIP 1.30 1.45 1.30
K/9 8.34 8.41 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.399 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.86 4.77 4.02
BP FIP 3.94 3.88 3.88
BP WHIP 1.37 1.36
BP K/9 8.38 8.82
BP Quality* 52.2 53.2 44.5
BP IP 203.0 198.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Enmanuel De Jesus (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brant Hurter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Seabold (34 pitches yesterday)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Bassitt (58 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 52°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 70%
Conditions: Cool (52°F), wind out (8 mph) | Rain likely (70%)
Weather Factor: 1.0045 (Temp: 0.9764 | Wind: 1.0288)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.9 - BAL 4.6
Simulated Avg: DET 4.9 - BAL 4.6
Win Probability: DET 52.8% - BAL 47.2%
Fair Moneyline: DET -112 / BAL +112
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 65.4%
Under 7.5: 34.6%
DET -1.5: 37.8%
BAL +1.5: 62.2%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.898 / BAL 1.306
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.173 / BAL 1.196
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.8 - BAL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.8 - BAL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: DET 58.8% - BAL 41.2% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -143 / BAL +143
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -102 -112 +2.3%
BAL ML -116 +112 -6.5%
DET -1.5 +155 +165 -1.4%
BAL +1.5 -188 -165 -3.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +13.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00611
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Slade Cecconi Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 4.55 ERA: 2.61
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 7.37 K/9: 11.27
BB/9: 2.49 BB/9: 1.98
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 2.73
IP: 52.3 IP: 31.7
xERA: 4.99 xERA: 2.49
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.247
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE PHI Lg Avg
Record 31-22 25-26
R/Game 4.32 4.10 4.40
RA/Game 3.87 4.59 4.40
OPS 0.698 0.686 0.706
wOBA 0.304 0.296 0.305
ERA 3.60 4.24 4.08
FIP 3.76 3.33 3.94
WHIP 1.24 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.49 9.53 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.550 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.78 4.07 4.02
BP FIP 3.67 3.24 3.88
BP WHIP 1.27 1.33
BP K/9 10.50 9.80
BP Quality* 43.3 41.3 44.5
BP IP 174.0 183.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 53°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 89%
Conditions: Cool (53°F), wind out (10 mph) | Rain likely (89%)
Weather Factor: 1.0101 (Temp: 0.9768 | Wind: 1.0340)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.3 - PHI 4.7
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.3 - PHI 4.7
Win Probability: CLE 35.4% - PHI 64.6%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +182 / PHI -182
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 51.8%
Under 7.0: 37.0%
CLE +1.5: 52.5%
PHI -1.5: 47.5%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 1.160 / PHI 0.641
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.973 / PHI 0.928
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.6 - PHI 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.6 - PHI 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CLE 29.4% - PHI 70.6% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +240 / PHI -240
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +160 +182 -3.0%
PHI ML -190 -182 -0.9%
CLE +1.5 -138 -110 -5.5%
PHI -1.5 +115 +110 +1.0%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -0.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryan Hudson Home: Adrian Houser
ERA: 1.57 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 6.17
BB/9: 3.91 BB/9: 2.95
FIP: 2.4 FIP: 4.04
IP: 23.0 IP: 48.0
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Bryan Hudson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS SF Lg Avg
Record 26-24 20-31
R/Game 4.54 3.47 4.40
RA/Game 4.68 4.59 4.40
OPS 0.724 0.665 0.706
wOBA 0.310 0.285 0.305
ERA 4.34 4.23 4.08
FIP 4.20 4.08 3.94
WHIP 1.35 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.26 7.96 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.375 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 3.42 4.02
BP FIP 4.39 3.97 3.88
BP WHIP 1.40 1.33
BP K/9 8.28 7.63
BP Quality* 51.0 46.5 44.5
BP IP 217.3 171.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Borucki (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (41 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9525 (Temp: 0.9923 | Wind: 0.9598)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.0 - SF 3.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.1 - SF 3.0
Win Probability: CWS 61.9% - SF 38.1%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -162 / SF +162
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 8.5: 30.1%
Under 8.5: 69.9%
CWS -1.5: 42.8%
SF +1.5: 57.2%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 0.792 / SF 0.976
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.146 / SF 1.045
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.2 - SF 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.2 - SF 1.4
F5 Win Prob: CWS 66.1% - SF 33.9% (Tie: 19.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -195 / SF +195
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +102 -162 +12.4%
SF ML -120 +162 -16.4%
CWS -1.5 +168 +134 +5.4%
SF +1.5 -205 -134 -10.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -22.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +17.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Chicago White Sox (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +102 | Edge: 12.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00612
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00613
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: George Kirby Home: Stephen Kolek
ERA: 3.99 ERA: 3.57
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 9.13 K/9: 6.17
BB/9: 2.14 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 3.24 FIP: 3.69
IP: 62.7 IP: 17.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA KC Lg Avg
Record 25-27 20-31
R/Game 4.08 3.80 4.40
RA/Game 3.83 4.43 4.40
OPS 0.691 0.689 0.706
wOBA 0.303 0.299 0.305
ERA 3.57 4.24 4.08
FIP 3.47 4.20 3.94
WHIP 1.22 1.37 1.30
K/9 8.80 8.50 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.529 0.431 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.04 4.53 4.02
BP FIP 3.17 4.59 3.88
BP WHIP 1.33 1.48
BP K/9 9.24 8.40
BP Quality* 40.8 52.4 44.5
BP IP 165.7 174.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Brash (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0245 (Temp: 1.0112 | Wind: 1.0131)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.3 - KC 3.6
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.3 - KC 3.5
Win Probability: SEA 57.4% - KC 42.6%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -135 / KC +135
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 38.5%
Under 8.5: 61.5%
SEA -1.5: 40.1%
KC +1.5: 59.9%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.895 / KC 0.974
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.917 / KC 1.178
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.2 - KC 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.2 - KC 1.9
F5 Win Prob: SEA 55.2% - KC 44.8% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -123 / KC +123
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -134 -135 +0.1%
KC ML +114 +135 -4.1%
SEA -1.5 +128 +149 -3.7%
KC +1.5 -154 -149 -0.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -13.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.1%
Fair ML: -160 | Kelly: 4.79%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00614
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Taj Bradley Home: Jovani Morán
ERA: 4.55 ERA: 2.81
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.46 K/9: 10.17
BB/9: 3.47 BB/9: 4.91
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 4.5
IP: 47.0 IP: 25.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN BOS Lg Avg
Record 24-27 22-28
R/Game 4.67 3.74 4.40
RA/Game 4.65 4.00 4.40
OPS 0.711 0.679 0.706
wOBA 0.310 0.297 0.305
ERA 4.22 3.74 4.08
FIP 3.86 4.03 3.94
WHIP 1.32 1.23 1.30
K/9 7.78 8.38 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.86 3.13 4.02
BP FIP 4.03 3.75 3.88
BP WHIP 1.51 1.18
BP K/9 7.51 8.81
BP Quality* 51.4 41.2 44.5
BP IP 183.3 190.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Cool (60°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0329 (Temp: 0.9854 | Wind: 1.0482)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.3 - BOS 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.3 - BOS 4.5
Win Probability: MIN 48.2% - BOS 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +108 / BOS -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 48.6%
Under 8.5: 51.4%
MIN -1.5: 32.5%
BOS +1.5: 67.5%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.026 / BOS 0.825
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.155 / BOS 0.926
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.3 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.3 - BOS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIN 48.9% - BOS 51.1% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +104 / BOS -104
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -102 +108 -2.3%
BOS ML -116 -108 -1.9%
MIN -1.5 +168 +208 -4.8%
BOS +1.5 -205 -208 +0.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Irvin Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 5.73 ERA: 3.94
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.24 K/9: 9.01
BB/9: 3.37 BB/9: 4.22
FIP: 5.13 FIP: 4.34
IP: 46.7 IP: 47.3
xERA: 5.59 xERA: 4.55
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Grant Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
Record 25-27 36-16
R/Game 5.46 5.40 4.40
RA/Game 5.79 3.38 4.40
OPS 0.738 0.771 0.706
wOBA 0.315 0.330 0.305
ERA 4.96 3.08 4.08
FIP 4.66 3.74 3.94
WHIP 1.41 1.13 1.30
K/9 7.86 8.88 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.702 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 3.14 4.02
BP FIP 4.68 3.51 3.88
BP WHIP 1.43 1.11
BP K/9 7.21 9.03
BP Quality* 58.1 41.0 44.5
BP IP 246.0 180.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Miles Mikolas (66 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mitchell Parker (31 pitches yesterday)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 0.9933)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.5 - ATL 7.4
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.5 - ATL 7.4
Win Probability: WSH 35.4% - ATL 64.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +183 / ATL -183
Avg Total Runs: 12.9
Over 8.5: 79.5%
Under 8.5: 20.5%
WSH +1.5: 47.8%
ATL -1.5: 52.2%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.334 / ATL 1.057
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.306 / ATL 0.921
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.2 - ATL 4.1
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.3 - ATL 4.1
F5 Win Prob: WSH 39.9% - ATL 60.1% (Tie: 11.9%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +151 / ATL -151
F5 Avg Total: 7.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +144 +183 -5.6%
ATL ML -172 -183 +1.4%
WSH +1.5 -134 +109 -9.5%
ATL -1.5 +112 -109 +5.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +27.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -31.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 27.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00615
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Max Meyer
ERA: 2.87 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 9.98 K/9: 9.63
BB/9: 3.58 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 3.59 FIP: 3.93
IP: 54.3 IP: 53.7
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 4.8
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Freddy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM MIA Lg Avg
Record 22-29 23-29
R/Game 4.02 4.29 4.40
RA/Game 4.29 4.63 4.40
OPS 0.650 0.694 0.706
wOBA 0.282 0.303 0.305
ERA 3.82 4.33 4.08
FIP 3.48 3.82 3.94
WHIP 1.28 1.28 1.30
K/9 9.25 8.55 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.35 3.42 4.02
BP FIP 3.35 3.30 3.88
BP WHIP 1.25 1.19
BP K/9 9.21 9.42
BP Quality* 40.5 40.4 44.5
BP IP 215.0 184.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sean Manaea (65 pitches yesterday)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0063 (Temp: 1.0199 | Wind: 0.9866)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.7 - MIA 3.5
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.7 - MIA 3.5
Win Probability: NYM 51.6% - MIA 48.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -107 / MIA +107
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 42.2%
Under 7.5: 57.8%
NYM -1.5: 33.0%
MIA +1.5: 67.0%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.822 / MIA 1.054
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.910 / MIA 0.908
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.2 - MIA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.2 - MIA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: NYM 55.6% - MIA 44.4% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -125 / MIA +125
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -104 -107 +0.6%
MIA ML -112 +107 -4.4%
NYM -1.5 +164 +203 -4.9%
MIA +1.5 -200 -203 +0.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -10.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Roki Sasaki Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 4.6 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 5.01 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 5.46 FIP: 3.1
IP: 40.7 IP: 4.0
xERA: 5.66 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.362 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Robert Gasser)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIL Lg Avg
Record 31-20 30-18
R/Game 5.06 5.04 4.40
RA/Game 3.22 3.40 4.40
OPS 0.769 0.701 0.706
wOBA 0.330 0.303 0.305
ERA 3.17 3.12 4.08
FIP 3.37 3.12 3.94
WHIP 1.10 1.19 1.30
K/9 9.00 9.92 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.696 0.673 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.98 3.22 4.02
BP FIP 2.86 3.16 3.88
BP WHIP 1.13 1.28
BP K/9 9.21 9.30
BP Quality* 34.7 41.1 44.5
BP IP 160.3 192.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Shane Drohan (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9773 (Temp: 0.9807 | Wind: 0.9965)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.2 - MIL 5.4
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.2 - MIL 5.4
Win Probability: LAD 38.1% - MIL 61.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +162 / MIL -162
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 46.7%
Under 9.0: 43.7%
LAD -1.5: 24.5%
MIL +1.5: 75.5%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 1.303 / MIL 0.832
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.780 / MIL 0.924
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.2 - MIL 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.2 - MIL 3.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 31.3% - MIL 68.7% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +220 / MIL -220
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -124 +162 -17.2%
MIL ML +106 -162 +13.3%
LAD -1.5 +134 +308 -18.2%
MIL +1.5 -162 -308 +13.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +106 | Edge: 13.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00616
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -162 | Edge: 13.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00617
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: J.T. Ginn Home: Lucas Giolito
ERA: 4.6 ERA: 3.47
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.37 K/9: 7.45
BB/9: 3.06 BB/9: 3.53
FIP: 4.27 FIP: 4.1
IP: 51.3 IP: 5.0
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 5.06
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SD Lg Avg
Record 26-25 30-20
R/Game 4.45 4.14 4.40
RA/Game 4.61 4.00 4.40
OPS 0.725 0.662 0.706
wOBA 0.311 0.286 0.305
ERA 4.33 3.91 4.08
FIP 4.58 3.50 3.94
WHIP 1.41 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.92 8.76 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.516 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 3.26 4.02
BP FIP 3.93 3.08 3.88
BP WHIP 1.42 1.20
BP K/9 8.40 9.47
BP Quality* 48.8 37.1 44.5
BP IP 186.3 204.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9944 (Temp: 0.9903 | Wind: 1.0041)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 3.7 - SD 4.2
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.7 - SD 4.2
Win Probability: ATH 44.5% - SD 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +125 / SD -125
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
ATH -1.5: 28.3%
ATH +1.5: 62.1%
SD -1.5: 37.9%
SD +1.5: 71.7%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.021 / SD 0.937
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.097 / SD 0.834
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.2 - SD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.2 - SD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 48.8% - SD 51.2% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +105 / SD -105
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 2.22 ERA: 2.7
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.96 K/9: 8.1
BB/9: 1.59 BB/9: 5.13
FIP: 2.99 FIP: 3.79
IP: 54.7 IP: 33.3
xERA: 3.0 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
Record 24-26 18-34
R/Game 3.96 4.04 4.40
RA/Game 3.76 5.31 4.40
OPS 0.698 0.693 0.706
wOBA 0.304 0.301 0.305
ERA 3.64 4.94 4.08
FIP 3.90 4.17 3.94
WHIP 1.21 1.45 1.30
K/9 8.59 8.64 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.524 0.378 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.92 5.50 4.02
BP FIP 3.68 4.74 3.88
BP WHIP 1.18 1.55
BP K/9 7.35 8.58
BP Quality* 40.6 62.9 44.5
BP IP 178.7 193.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cal Quantrill (39 pitches yesterday)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9727 (Temp: 0.9891 | Wind: 0.9835)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.0 - LAA 3.1
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.0 - LAA 3.1
Win Probability: TEX 59.9% - LAA 40.1%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -149 / LAA +149
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 8.0: 31.4%
Under 8.0: 58.4%
TEX -1.5: 41.3%
LAA +1.5: 58.7%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.687 / LAA 0.822
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.912 / LAA 1.400
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.8 - LAA 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.8 - LAA 1.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 55.1% - LAA 44.9% (Tie: 21.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -123 / LAA +123
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -136 -149 +2.2%
LAA ML +116 +149 -6.2%
TEX -1.5 +126 +142 -3.0%
LAA +1.5 -152 -142 -1.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -21.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +6.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | May 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Zac Gallen
ERA: 5.32 ERA: 4.82
WHIP: 1.5 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.67 K/9: 7.64
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 3.0
FIP: 4.61 FIP: 4.43
IP: 48.7 IP: 49.0
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
Record 20-32 26-24
R/Game 4.12 4.50 4.40
RA/Game 5.15 4.54 4.40
OPS 0.692 0.708 0.706
wOBA 0.301 0.304 0.305
ERA 4.88 4.14 4.08
FIP 4.54 4.08 3.94
WHIP 1.46 1.26 1.30
K/9 7.47 7.37 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.398 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 4.20 4.02
BP FIP 3.92 3.75 3.88
BP WHIP 1.37 1.18
BP K/9 8.49 7.71
BP Quality* 50.5 52.5 44.5
BP IP 235.3 167.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Juan Morillo (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0342 (Temp: 1.0240 | Wind: 1.0099)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.8 - ARI 5.5
Simulated Avg: COL 4.8 - ARI 5.6
Win Probability: COL 42.9% - ARI 57.1%
Fair Moneyline: COL +133 / ARI -133
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.6%
Under 9.0: 37.2%
COL +1.5: 57.9%
ARI -1.5: 42.1%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.173 / ARI 1.096
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.135 / ARI 1.180
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - ARI 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - ARI 3.1
F5 Win Prob: COL 42.0% - ARI 58.0% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +138 / ARI -138
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +146 +133 +2.2%
ARI ML -174 -133 -6.4%
COL +1.5 -138 -137 -0.1%
ARI -1.5 +115 +137 -4.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -15.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================