2026-05-25
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-25
Games: 13 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ben Brown Home: Carmen Mlodzinski
ERA: 5.59 ERA: 3.64
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 10.16 K/9: 8.05
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 2.59
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 3.1
IP: 38.7 IP: 50.0
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Carmen Mlodzinski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
Record 29-24 27-26
R/Game 4.77 4.83 4.37
RA/Game 4.40 4.42 4.37
OPS 0.725 0.718 0.705
wOBA 0.315 0.313 0.305
ERA 4.12 3.84 4.05
FIP 4.34 3.56 3.94
WHIP 1.23 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.12 8.84 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.538 0.541 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.56 4.13 3.99
BP FIP 4.22 3.86 3.88
BP WHIP 1.22 1.37
BP K/9 7.95 9.09
BP Quality* 46.8 46.6 44.4
BP IP 194.7 205.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0125 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 1.0087)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.4 - PIT 5.3
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.4 - PIT 5.3
Win Probability: CHC 41.6% - PIT 58.4%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +140 / PIT -140
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 58.0%
Under 8.0: 32.3%
CHC -1.5: 27.5%
PIT +1.5: 72.5%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.113 / PIT 0.883
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.054 / PIT 1.050
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.3 - PIT 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.3 - PIT 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 39.3% - PIT 60.7% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +155 / PIT -155
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -124 +140 -13.7%
PIT ML +106 -140 +9.8%
CHC -1.5 +136 +264 -14.9%
PIT +1.5 -164 -264 +10.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -20.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -164 | Edge: 10.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00623
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane McClanahan Home: Kyle Bradish
ERA: 2.82 ERA: 2.99
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.47 K/9: 12.29
BB/9: 3.43 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 2.72 FIP: 2.79
IP: 44.7 IP: 52.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
Record 34-16 23-30
R/Game 4.72 4.30 4.37
RA/Game 3.92 5.38 4.37
OPS 0.723 0.701 0.705
wOBA 0.311 0.305 0.305
ERA 3.51 4.85 4.05
FIP 3.94 4.27 3.94
WHIP 1.19 1.44 1.30
K/9 7.73 8.26 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.584 0.399 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 4.66 3.99
BP FIP 4.39 3.87 3.88
BP WHIP 1.31 1.35
BP K/9 7.98 8.66
BP Quality* 49.5 48.2 44.4
BP IP 197.3 204.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 27%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9844 (Temp: 1.0016 | Wind: 0.9828)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.1 - BAL 3.8
Simulated Avg: TB 4.1 - BAL 3.8
Win Probability: TB 52.8% - BAL 47.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB -112 / BAL +112
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 49.5%
Under 7.5: 50.5%
TB -1.5: 35.5%
BAL +1.5: 64.5%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.681 / BAL 0.727
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.115 / BAL 1.086
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.9 - BAL 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.9 - BAL 1.6
F5 Win Prob: TB 55.5% - BAL 44.5% (Tie: 20.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -125 / BAL +125
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -126 -112 -3.0%
BAL ML +108 +112 -0.8%
TB -1.5 +134 +182 -7.2%
BAL +1.5 -162 -182 +2.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 5.32 ERA: 4.27
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 9.85 K/9: 6.6
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 4.27
FIP: 3.7 FIP: 4.74
IP: 13.0 IP: 46.3
xERA: 4.67 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Zebby Matthews)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
Record 26-27 26-26
R/Game 4.68 4.52 4.37
RA/Game 4.60 4.85 4.37
OPS 0.714 0.721 0.705
wOBA 0.312 0.309 0.305
ERA 4.19 4.54 4.05
FIP 3.85 4.28 3.94
WHIP 1.32 1.37 1.30
K/9 7.83 8.20 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.75 4.82 3.99
BP FIP 3.99 4.52 3.88
BP WHIP 1.50 1.44
BP K/9 7.57 8.29
BP Quality* 56.8 55.7 44.4
BP IP 191.3 228.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Travis Adams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eric Orze (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0098 (Temp: 1.0118 | Wind: 0.9980)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 5.5 - CWS 5.6
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.4 - CWS 5.6
Win Probability: MIN 48.5% - CWS 51.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +106 / CWS -106
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 8.0: 68.2%
Under 8.0: 23.3%
MIN -1.5: 34.9%
CWS +1.5: 65.1%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.146 / CWS 1.124
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.279 / CWS 1.255
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.9 - CWS 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.9 - CWS 2.9
F5 Win Prob: MIN 50.2% - CWS 49.8% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -101 / CWS +101
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML -110 +106 -3.9%
CWS ML -106 -106 +0.0%
MIN -1.5 +155 +186 -4.3%
CWS +1.5 -188 -186 -0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +15.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -29.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00624
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 4.35 ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 12.44
BB/9: 2.69 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 3.0
IP: 51.7 IP: 57.0
xERA: 4.86 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
Record 29-22 30-20
R/Game 4.57 4.92 4.37
RA/Game 4.55 3.58 4.37
OPS 0.716 0.694 0.705
wOBA 0.308 0.301 0.305
ERA 4.20 3.31 4.05
FIP 4.23 3.21 3.94
WHIP 1.37 1.21 1.30
K/9 7.39 9.86 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.641 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 3.47 3.99
BP FIP 4.10 3.29 3.88
BP WHIP 1.39 1.30
BP K/9 7.98 9.12
BP Quality* 47.6 42.8 44.4
BP IP 190.7 202.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Shane Drohan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carlos Rodriguez (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 1.0123 | Wind: 0.9819)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.9 - MIL 5.4
Simulated Avg: STL 3.9 - MIL 5.4
Win Probability: STL 35.6% - MIL 64.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL +181 / MIL -181
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.5: 63.4%
Under 7.5: 36.6%
STL +1.5: 51.3%
MIL -1.5: 48.7%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.101 / MIL 0.816
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.072 / MIL 0.964
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.0 - MIL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.0 - MIL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: STL 34.3% - MIL 65.7% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +192 / MIL -192
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +184 +181 +0.4%
MIL ML -220 -181 -4.3%
STL +1.5 -120 -105 -3.2%
MIL -1.5 +100 +105 -1.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +11.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00625
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 4.2 ERA: 3.53
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.82 K/9: 6.93
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 3.61
IP: 52.3 IP: 63.3
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY KC Lg Avg
Record 31-22 22-31
R/Game 4.79 3.91 4.37
RA/Game 3.53 4.38 4.37
OPS 0.754 0.691 0.705
wOBA 0.323 0.300 0.305
ERA 3.24 4.19 4.05
FIP 3.29 4.17 3.94
WHIP 1.18 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.86 8.31 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.637 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 4.62 3.99
BP FIP 3.51 4.55 3.88
BP WHIP 1.29 1.49
BP K/9 8.82 8.37
BP Quality* 43.7 52.6 44.4
BP IP 179.7 177.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9925 (Temp: 1.0192 | Wind: 0.9738)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.8 - KC 3.9
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.8 - KC 3.9
Win Probability: NYY 58.4% - KC 41.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -140 / KC +140
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.0: 38.2%
Under 9.0: 51.9%
NYY -1.5: 42.2%
KC +1.5: 57.8%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 1.019 / KC 0.934
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.984 / KC 1.185
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.4 - KC 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.4 - KC 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYY 54.2% - KC 45.8% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -118 / KC +118
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -146 -140 -1.0%
KC ML +124 +140 -3.0%
NYY -1.5 +114 +137 -4.5%
KC +1.5 -137 -137 +0.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -14.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Lodolo Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 3.66 ERA: 2.49
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 8.76 K/9: 10.7
BB/9: 2.09 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 3.82 FIP: 2.85
IP: 15.0 IP: 58.0
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 3.51
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN NYM Lg Avg
Record 27-25 22-31
R/Game 4.40 3.89 4.37
RA/Game 5.06 4.28 4.37
OPS 0.703 0.642 0.705
wOBA 0.303 0.279 0.305
ERA 4.78 3.84 4.05
FIP 4.96 3.53 3.94
WHIP 1.47 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.78 9.22 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.456 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.04 3.46 3.99
BP FIP 5.18 3.44 3.88
BP WHIP 1.55 1.27
BP K/9 8.88 9.10
BP Quality* 55.9 40.0 44.4
BP IP 201.7 218.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9853 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 0.9844)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.3 - NYM 4.3
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.3 - NYM 4.3
Win Probability: CIN 38.8% - NYM 61.2%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +158 / NYM -158
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 47.2%
Under 7.5: 52.8%
CIN +1.5: 57.0%
NYM -1.5: 43.0%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 1.070 / NYM 0.739
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.259 / NYM 0.901
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 1.7 - NYM 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.7 - NYM 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CIN 40.1% - NYM 59.9% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +150 / NYM -150
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +136 +158 -3.6%
NYM ML -162 -158 -0.6%
CIN +1.5 -166 -132 -5.4%
NYM -1.5 +138 +132 +1.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 7.72 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 3.7
FIP: 4.08 FIP: 3.42
IP: 41.0 IP: 55.0
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
Record 28-24 22-31
R/Game 4.60 3.68 4.37
RA/Game 4.46 4.57 4.37
OPS 0.717 0.682 0.705
wOBA 0.307 0.292 0.305
ERA 4.08 4.22 4.05
FIP 4.06 4.07 3.94
WHIP 1.25 1.34 1.30
K/9 7.29 8.04 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 3.29 3.99
BP FIP 3.80 3.90 3.88
BP WHIP 1.17 1.30
BP K/9 7.60 7.84
BP Quality* 44.9 45.4 44.4
BP IP 171.7 180.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9560 (Temp: 0.9838 | Wind: 0.9718)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.0 - SF 3.4
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.0 - SF 3.4
Win Probability: ARI 55.9% - SF 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -127 / SF +127
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 44.5%
Under 7.5: 55.5%
ARI +1.5: 73.5%
SF -1.5: 26.5%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.007 / SF 0.930
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.011 / SF 1.023
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - SF 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - SF 1.9
F5 Win Prob: ARI 55.0% - SF 45.0% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -122 / SF +122
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +120 -127 +10.4%
SF ML -142 +127 -14.6%
ARI +1.5 -182 -278 +9.0%
SF -1.5 +150 +278 -13.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -7.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (Run Line) [-182]
Model: 73.5% | Market: 64.5% | Edge: 9.0%
Fair ML: -278 | Kelly: 6.33%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00626
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Arizona Diamondbacks (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +120 | Edge: 10.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00627
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zack Littell Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 4.09
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 5.91 K/9: 7.94
BB/9: 1.81 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 5.24 FIP: 4.07
IP: 46.3 IP: 60.0
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Tanner Bibee)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH CLE Lg Avg
Record 27-27 32-23
R/Game 5.33 4.22 4.37
RA/Game 5.59 3.80 4.37
OPS 0.735 0.693 0.705
wOBA 0.314 0.301 0.305
ERA 4.80 3.55 4.05
FIP 4.55 3.72 3.94
WHIP 1.38 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.92 9.51 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.548 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.77 3.69 3.99
BP FIP 4.61 3.68 3.88
BP WHIP 1.41 1.28
BP K/9 7.22 10.53
BP Quality* 55.8 43.2 44.4
BP IP 253.0 180.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Gus Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Richard Lovelady (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9776 (Temp: 0.9873 | Wind: 0.9902)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.8 - CLE 4.9
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.8 - CLE 4.9
Win Probability: WSH 48.7% - CLE 51.3%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +105 / CLE -105
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.7%
Under 8.5: 42.3%
WSH +1.5: 64.0%
CLE -1.5: 36.0%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.154 / CLE 0.969
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.257 / CLE 0.973
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.7 - CLE 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.7 - CLE 2.6
F5 Win Prob: WSH 51.8% - CLE 48.2% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -107 / CLE +107
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +146 +105 +8.0%
CLE ML -174 -105 -12.2%
WSH +1.5 -146 -178 +4.6%
CLE -1.5 +122 +178 -9.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Randy Vásquez
ERA: 4.19 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 10.61 K/9: 5.87
BB/9: 2.69 BB/9: 3.25
FIP: 2.78 FIP: 4.33
IP: 55.7 IP: 54.7
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 5.37
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI SD Lg Avg
Record 26-27 31-21
R/Game 4.02 4.06 4.37
RA/Game 4.47 3.94 4.37
OPS 0.683 0.661 0.705
wOBA 0.295 0.286 0.305
ERA 4.14 3.86 4.05
FIP 3.30 3.52 3.94
WHIP 1.33 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.45 8.77 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.451 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.99 3.16 3.99
BP FIP 3.24 3.03 3.88
BP WHIP 1.31 1.19
BP K/9 9.79 9.56
BP Quality* 42.4 45.4 44.4
BP IP 189.3 213.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0131 (Temp: 0.9951 | Wind: 1.0181)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.1 - SD 3.5
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.1 - SD 3.5
Win Probability: PHI 56.3% - SD 43.7%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -129 / SD +129
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 47.4%
Under 7.5: 52.6%
PHI -1.5: 38.3%
SD +1.5: 61.7%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.821 / SD 1.113
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.955 / SD 1.023
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.4 - SD 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.4 - SD 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 60.3% - SD 39.7% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -152 / SD +152
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -130 -129 -0.2%
SD ML +110 +129 -3.9%
PHI -1.5 +130 +161 -5.2%
SD +1.5 -156 -161 +0.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tatsuya Imai Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 8.31 ERA: 5.25
WHIP: 1.79 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 10.9 K/9: 7.73
BB/9: 7.27 BB/9: 3.4
FIP: 6.11 FIP: 4.5
IP: 17.3 IP: 45.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 5.73
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.364
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Kumar Rocker)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
Record 23-31 24-28
R/Game 4.31 3.87 4.37
RA/Game 5.20 3.75 4.37
OPS 0.727 0.692 0.705
wOBA 0.311 0.302 0.305
ERA 5.17 3.62 4.05
FIP 4.76 3.85 3.94
WHIP 1.50 1.21 1.30
K/9 8.58 8.64 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.415 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.60 2.96 3.99
BP FIP 5.24 3.63 3.88
BP WHIP 1.55 1.20
BP K/9 8.13 7.45
BP Quality* 64.1 40.6 44.4
BP IP 217.0 182.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0059 (Temp: 1.0081 | Wind: 0.9978)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.0 - TEX 6.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.0 - TEX 6.3
Win Probability: HOU 39.1% - TEX 60.9%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +156 / TEX -156
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 8.5: 70.7%
Under 8.5: 29.3%
HOU +1.5: 53.1%
TEX -1.5: 46.9%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.587 / TEX 1.264
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.400 / TEX 0.914
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 3.2 - TEX 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 3.2 - TEX 3.7
F5 Win Prob: HOU 44.4% - TEX 55.6% (Tie: 12.7%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +125 / TEX -125
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +110 +156 -8.5%
TEX ML -130 -156 +4.4%
HOU +1.5 -184 -113 -11.7%
TEX -1.5 +152 +113 +7.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +18.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -23.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Texas Rangers -1.5 (Run Line) [+152]
Model: 46.9% | Market: 39.7% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: +113 | Kelly: 3.01%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00628
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 18.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00629
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Janson Junk Home: Trey Yesavage
ERA: 4.43 ERA: 1.07
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 6.37 K/9: 10.3
BB/9: 1.37 BB/9: 2.84
FIP: 3.36 FIP: 1.76
IP: 55.0 IP: 25.3
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Trey Yesavage)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA TOR Lg Avg
Record 25-29 25-28
R/Game 4.28 4.04 4.37
RA/Game 4.48 4.15 4.37
OPS 0.699 0.679 0.705
wOBA 0.305 0.293 0.305
ERA 4.18 3.83 4.05
FIP 3.76 3.49 3.94
WHIP 1.27 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.59 9.43 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.487 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.33 3.85 3.99
BP FIP 3.26 3.43 3.88
BP WHIP 1.19 1.28
BP K/9 9.39 9.79
BP Quality* 44.4 45.7 44.4
BP IP 191.7 219.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Andrew Nardi (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yariel Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9768 (Temp: 0.9845 | Wind: 0.9922)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.4 - TOR 4.0
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.4 - TOR 4.0
Win Probability: MIA 42.8% - TOR 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +134 / TOR -134
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 43.7%
Under 7.5: 56.3%
MIA +1.5: 61.5%
TOR -1.5: 38.5%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 0.990 / TOR 0.673
Bullpen Adj: MIA 1.000 / TOR 1.029
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.6 - TOR 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.5 - TOR 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIA 37.2% - TOR 62.8% (Tie: 19.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +169 / TOR -169
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +142 +134 +1.5%
TOR ML -168 -134 -5.5%
MIA +1.5 -160 -160 -0.1%
TOR -1.5 +132 +160 -4.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tanner Gordon Home: Emmet Sheehan
ERA: 6.33 ERA: 3.36
WHIP: 1.5 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 7.41 K/9: 10.7
BB/9: 2.03 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 4.89 FIP: 3.19
IP: 27.3 IP: 45.7
xERA: 5.88 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.368 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Emmet Sheehan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
Record 20-34 33-20
R/Game 4.06 5.17 4.37
RA/Game 5.22 3.17 4.37
OPS 0.687 0.771 0.705
wOBA 0.299 0.331 0.305
ERA 4.98 3.10 4.05
FIP 4.48 3.32 3.94
WHIP 1.47 1.09 1.30
K/9 7.48 9.00 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.386 0.710 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.26 2.87 3.99
BP FIP 3.83 2.79 3.88
BP WHIP 1.36 1.11
BP K/9 8.49 9.47
BP Quality* 49.8 36.9 44.4
BP IP 245.0 166.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blas Castaño (45 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Hernández (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9766 (Temp: 0.9880 | Wind: 0.9885)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 3.0 - LAD 6.3
Simulated Avg: COL 3.0 - LAD 6.3
Win Probability: COL 20.8% - LAD 79.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL +382 / LAD -382
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 44.3%
Under 9.0: 46.1%
COL +1.5: 34.4%
LAD -1.5: 65.6%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.363 / LAD 0.782
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.122 / LAD 0.831
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 1.6 - LAD 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 1.6 - LAD 3.8
F5 Win Prob: COL 20.3% - LAD 79.7% (Tie: 12.4%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +392 / LAD -392
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +260 +382 -7.0%
LAD ML -320 -382 +3.1%
COL +1.5 +126 +191 -9.9%
LAD -1.5 -152 -191 +5.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Luis Castillo Home: Aaron Civale
ERA: 4.28 ERA: 4.41
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.34 K/9: 7.39
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 2.88
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 4.52
IP: 46.3 IP: 51.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Luis Castillo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
Record 25-29 27-26
R/Game 4.04 4.38 4.37
RA/Game 3.93 4.51 4.37
OPS 0.690 0.724 0.705
wOBA 0.303 0.312 0.305
ERA 3.66 4.25 4.05
FIP 3.46 4.56 3.94
WHIP 1.23 1.40 1.30
K/9 8.67 7.96 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.513 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 4.33 3.99
BP FIP 3.22 3.91 3.88
BP WHIP 1.35 1.40
BP K/9 9.05 8.38
BP Quality* 41.7 50.9 44.4
BP IP 171.0 199.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Alex Hoppe (B2B, 33 pitches)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Barlow (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Lopez (91 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9579 (Temp: 0.9806 | Wind: 0.9769)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.3 - ATH 4.3
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.3 - ATH 4.3
Win Probability: SEA 50.2% - ATH 49.8%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -101 / ATH +101
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
SEA -1.5: 34.0%
SEA +1.5: 66.7%
ATH -1.5: 33.3%
ATH +1.5: 66.0%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.994 / ATH 1.073
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.939 / ATH 1.146
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - ATH 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.3 - ATH 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SEA 48.9% - ATH 51.1% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +105 / ATH -105
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================