2026-05-27
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-27
Games: 15 | Plays: 8
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eury Pérez Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 4.46 ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 9.83 K/9: 8.74
BB/9: 3.42 BB/9: 2.04
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 3.19
IP: 58.7 IP: 64.0
xERA: 3.23 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.281 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA TOR Lg Avg
Record 26-30 26-29
R/Game 4.29 4.07 4.39
RA/Game 4.50 4.16 4.38
OPS 0.695 0.685 0.707
wOBA 0.303 0.296 0.306
ERA 4.22 3.83 4.07
FIP 3.80 3.46 3.95
WHIP 1.27 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.55 9.33 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.27 3.80 3.98
BP FIP 3.27 3.42 3.89
BP WHIP 1.18 1.27
BP K/9 9.41 9.59
BP Quality* 42.6 49.9 44.4
BP IP 198.0 230.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Cade Gibson (B2B, 35 pitches)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Tanner Andrews (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yariel Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (66 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Heriberto Hernández, Javier Sanoja
Heriberto Hernández LF OPS: 0.785 (256 AB)
Javier Sanoja 3B OPS: 0.683 (313 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.0% of full strength
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9772 (Temp: 0.9995 | Wind: 0.9777)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.8 - TOR 3.9
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.8 - TOR 3.9
Win Probability: MIA 49.1% - TOR 50.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +103 / TOR -103
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 47.4%
Under 7.5: 52.6%
MIA +1.5: 67.1%
TOR -1.5: 32.9%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 0.939 / TOR 0.849
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.959 / TOR 1.124
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - TOR 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - TOR 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIA 45.4% - TOR 54.6% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +121 / TOR -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +128 +103 +5.3%
TOR ML -152 -103 -9.5%
MIA +1.5 -176 -204 +3.4%
TOR -1.5 +146 +204 -7.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: PJ Poulin Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 3.42 ERA: 3.12
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 6.08 K/9: 9.8
BB/9: 5.7 BB/9: 3.96
FIP: 5.84 FIP: 3.99
IP: 23.7 IP: 69.3
xERA: 3.93 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH CLE Lg Avg
Record 29-27 32-25
R/Game 5.43 4.16 4.39
RA/Game 5.48 3.95 4.38
OPS 0.747 0.692 0.707
wOBA 0.319 0.301 0.306
ERA 4.72 3.67 4.07
FIP 4.48 3.85 3.95
WHIP 1.37 1.27 1.30
K/9 7.98 9.47 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.496 0.524 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.69 3.58 3.98
BP FIP 4.50 3.60 3.89
BP WHIP 1.40 1.28
BP K/9 7.36 10.43
BP Quality* 51.9 45.4 44.4
BP IP 263.0 193.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitchell Parker (47 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Codi Heuer (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Will Dion (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Nasim Nuñez, Dylan Crews, Keibert Ruiz
Nasim Nuñez 2B OPS: 0.699 (82 AB)
Dylan Crews CF OPS: 0.632 (293 AB)
Keibert Ruiz C OPS: 0.595 (255 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.9% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rhys Hoskins, Patrick Bailey, David Fry
Rhys Hoskins 1B OPS: 0.748 (279 AB)
Patrick Bailey C OPS: 0.602 (409 AB)
David Fry RF OPS: 0.592 (146 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0194 (Temp: 0.9993 | Wind: 1.0202)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 5.1 - CLE 4.5
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.1 - CLE 4.4
Win Probability: WSH 55.6% - CLE 44.4%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -125 / CLE +125
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 55.6%
Under 8.0: 34.4%
WSH +1.5: 70.7%
CLE -1.5: 29.3%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.032 / CLE 0.954
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.169 / CLE 1.023
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.8 - CLE 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.8 - CLE 2.3
F5 Win Prob: WSH 56.7% - CLE 43.3% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -131 / CLE +131
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +160 -125 +17.2%
CLE ML -190 +125 -21.2%
WSH +1.5 -137 -241 +12.9%
CLE -1.5 +114 +241 -17.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +160 | Edge: 17.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00640
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -137 | Edge: 12.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00641
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dustin May Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
Record 29-24 32-20
R/Game 4.42 4.94 4.39
RA/Game 4.58 3.46 4.38
OPS 0.702 0.703 0.707
wOBA 0.302 0.304 0.306
ERA 4.27 3.19 4.07
FIP 4.23 3.15 3.95
WHIP 1.39 1.19 1.30
K/9 7.60 9.83 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.657 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.37 3.34 3.98
BP FIP 4.10 3.26 3.89
BP WHIP 1.39 1.29
BP K/9 8.06 9.07
BP Quality* 47.5 39.1 44.4
BP IP 197.7 207.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0344 (Temp: 1.0055 | Wind: 1.0287)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.2 - MIL 5.8
Simulated Avg: STL 4.2 - MIL 5.8
Win Probability: STL 35.3% - MIL 64.7%
Fair Moneyline: STL +184 / MIL -184
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.5: 60.4%
Under 8.5: 39.6%
STL +1.5: 50.0%
MIL -1.5: 50.0%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.177 / MIL 1.000
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.070 / MIL 0.881
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.5 - MIL 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.5 - MIL 3.3
F5 Win Prob: STL 38.2% - MIL 61.8% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +162 / MIL -162
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +126 +184 -9.0%
MIL ML -148 -184 +5.1%
STL +1.5 -160 -100 -11.5%
MIL -1.5 +132 +100 +6.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.20%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00642
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 3.63 ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 11.01 K/9: 7.29
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 3.43 FIP: 4.61
IP: 62.3 IP: 61.3
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
Record 27-29 27-28
R/Game 4.12 4.27 4.39
RA/Game 3.84 4.58 4.38
OPS 0.697 0.719 0.707
wOBA 0.305 0.309 0.306
ERA 3.58 4.33 4.07
FIP 3.46 4.55 3.95
WHIP 1.22 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.63 8.00 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.533 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.17 4.23 3.98
BP FIP 3.29 3.83 3.89
BP WHIP 1.33 1.37
BP K/9 8.95 8.50
BP Quality* 40.3 48.4 44.4
BP IP 179.0 208.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9729 (Temp: 0.9957 | Wind: 0.9771)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.4 - ATH 3.8
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.4 - ATH 3.8
Win Probability: SEA 56.3% - ATH 43.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -129 / ATH +129
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
SEA -1.5: 39.1%
SEA +1.5: 72.6%
ATH -1.5: 27.4%
ATH +1.5: 60.9%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.826 / ATH 1.075
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.908 / ATH 1.090
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - ATH 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.5 - ATH 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SEA 58.6% - ATH 41.4% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -141 / ATH +141
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Soroka Home: Trevor McDonald
ERA: 4.16 ERA: 4.76
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 9.48 K/9: 8.34
BB/9: 2.73 BB/9: 1.59
FIP: 3.42 FIP: 2.92
IP: 55.0 IP: 22.7
xERA: 3.53 xERA: 3.21
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: SF (Trevor McDonald)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
Record 30-24 22-33
R/Game 4.67 3.67 4.39
RA/Game 4.43 4.64 4.38
OPS 0.721 0.685 0.707
wOBA 0.309 0.293 0.306
ERA 4.06 4.25 4.07
FIP 4.07 4.11 3.95
WHIP 1.25 1.35 1.30
K/9 7.30 8.04 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.524 0.395 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 3.39 3.98
BP FIP 3.89 3.97 3.89
BP WHIP 1.16 1.32
BP K/9 7.64 7.79
BP Quality* 43.9 47.7 44.4
BP IP 176.7 188.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Borucki (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9644 (Temp: 0.9933 | Wind: 0.9709)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.5 - SF 3.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.6 - SF 3.2
Win Probability: ARI 64.4% - SF 35.6%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -181 / SF +181
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 48.8%
Under 7.5: 51.2%
ARI -1.5: 46.8%
SF +1.5: 53.2%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 0.895 / SF 1.094
Bullpen Adj: ARI 0.989 / SF 1.074
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.6 - SF 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.5 - SF 1.7
F5 Win Prob: ARI 65.8% - SF 34.2% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -193 / SF +193
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -126 -181 +8.6%
SF ML +108 +181 -12.5%
ARI -1.5 +134 +114 +4.1%
SF +1.5 -162 -114 -8.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 2.22 ERA: 4.96
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 9.84 K/9: 6.97
BB/9: 1.97 BB/9: 4.11
FIP: 2.27 FIP: 4.86
IP: 72.3 IP: 46.3
xERA: 3.02 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI SD Lg Avg
Record 28-27 31-23
R/Game 4.00 3.96 4.39
RA/Game 4.36 3.93 4.38
OPS 0.685 0.655 0.707
wOBA 0.296 0.284 0.306
ERA 4.04 3.85 4.07
FIP 3.29 3.64 3.95
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.49 8.65 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.92 3.08 3.98
BP FIP 3.25 3.03 3.89
BP WHIP 1.30 1.18
BP K/9 9.95 9.48
BP Quality* 45.1 39.1 44.4
BP IP 195.3 219.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Keller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 0.9932 | Wind: 1.0008)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.1 - SD 3.0
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.1 - SD 3.0
Win Probability: PHI 62.2% - SD 37.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -164 / SD +164
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.5: 40.9%
Under 7.5: 59.1%
PHI -1.5: 43.3%
SD +1.5: 56.7%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.619 / SD 1.248
Bullpen Adj: PHI 1.016 / SD 0.881
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.6 - SD 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.6 - SD 1.3
F5 Win Prob: PHI 73.7% - SD 26.3% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -280 / SD +280
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -148 -164 +2.5%
SD ML +126 +164 -6.4%
PHI -1.5 +115 +131 -3.2%
SD +1.5 -138 -131 -1.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -11.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Steven Matz Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
Record 34-18 25-30
R/Game 4.69 4.42 4.39
RA/Game 4.06 5.33 4.38
OPS 0.721 0.699 0.707
wOBA 0.310 0.303 0.306
ERA 3.44 4.73 4.07
FIP 3.93 4.23 3.95
WHIP 1.20 1.43 1.30
K/9 7.74 8.26 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.566 0.415 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 4.59 3.98
BP FIP 4.40 3.85 3.89
BP WHIP 1.32 1.35
BP K/9 8.00 8.63
BP Quality* 49.3 50.9 44.4
BP IP 210.3 213.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Martin (52 pitches yesterday)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dietrich Enns (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0122 (Temp: 1.0090 | Wind: 1.0032)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 5.0 - BAL 4.4
Simulated Avg: TB 5.0 - BAL 4.4
Win Probability: TB 55.4% - BAL 44.6%
Fair Moneyline: TB -124 / BAL +124
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.0: 45.5%
Under 9.0: 44.8%
TB -1.5: 40.3%
BAL +1.5: 59.7%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.842 / BAL 1.000
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.110 / BAL 1.146
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.7 - BAL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.7 - BAL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 58.5% - BAL 41.5% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -141 / BAL +141
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -108 -124 +3.5%
BAL ML -108 +124 -7.4%
TB -1.5 +146 +148 -0.4%
BAL +1.5 -176 -148 -4.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 3.69 ERA: 3.55
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.7 K/9: 8.51
BB/9: 4.0 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 3.44 FIP: 3.49
IP: 66.3 IP: 43.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA DET Lg Avg
Record 21-34 21-34
R/Game 4.13 3.87 4.39
RA/Game 5.18 4.40 4.38
OPS 0.698 0.685 0.707
wOBA 0.303 0.301 0.306
ERA 4.83 4.05 4.07
FIP 4.10 3.80 3.95
WHIP 1.43 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.88 8.36 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.397 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.32 4.11 3.98
BP FIP 4.74 4.07 3.89
BP WHIP 1.54 1.39
BP K/9 8.82 8.48
BP Quality* 56.1 49.3 44.4
BP IP 203.0 212.3
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (43 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Will Vest (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0532 (Temp: 1.0093 | Wind: 1.0435)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.1 - DET 4.3
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.1 - DET 4.3
Win Probability: LAA 47.2% - DET 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +112 / DET -112
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.7%
Under 7.5: 44.3%
LAA +1.5: 64.3%
DET -1.5: 35.7%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.912 / DET 0.876
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.264 / DET 1.110
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.1 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.1 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: LAA 49.6% - DET 50.4% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +102 / DET -102
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +106 +112 -1.4%
DET ML -124 -112 -2.5%
LAA +1.5 -205 -180 -2.9%
DET -1.5 +168 +180 -1.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jameson Taillon Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 4.11 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 7.04 K/9: 8.93
BB/9: 2.17 BB/9: 2.68
FIP: 5.12 FIP: 3.15
IP: 55.3 IP: 47.0
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Bubba Chandler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
Record 29-26 29-26
R/Game 4.64 4.91 4.39
RA/Game 4.49 4.29 4.38
OPS 0.718 0.724 0.707
wOBA 0.313 0.315 0.306
ERA 4.23 3.72 4.07
FIP 4.34 3.54 3.95
WHIP 1.24 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.16 8.81 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.561 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.64 4.00 3.98
BP FIP 4.29 3.77 3.89
BP WHIP 1.24 1.34
BP K/9 7.95 9.18
BP Quality* 46.0 45.5 44.4
BP IP 200.3 211.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (32 pitches yesterday)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9977 (Temp: 1.0069 | Wind: 0.9909)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.2 - PIT 5.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.2 - PIT 5.2
Win Probability: CHC 40.1% - PIT 59.9%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +150 / PIT -150
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 45.0%
Under 9.0: 45.1%
CHC -1.5: 25.9%
PIT +1.5: 74.1%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.087 / PIT 0.882
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.036 / PIT 1.025
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.2 - PIT 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.2 - PIT 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CHC 39.4% - PIT 60.6% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +154 / PIT -154
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -102 +150 -10.4%
PIT ML -116 -150 +6.2%
CHC -1.5 +158 +287 -12.9%
PIT +1.5 -192 -287 +8.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line) [-192]
Model: 74.1% | Market: 65.8% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -287 | Kelly: 6.11%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00643
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Elder Home: Connelly Early
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.64 K/9: 8.33
BB/9: 2.88 BB/9: 3.17
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 4.47
IP: 68.7 IP: 54.0
xERA: 4.73 xERA: 2.35
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.24
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Bryce Elder)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL BOS Lg Avg
Record 37-18 22-31
R/Game 5.25 3.77 4.39
RA/Game 3.38 4.09 4.38
OPS 0.756 0.686 0.707
wOBA 0.325 0.300 0.306
ERA 3.09 3.82 4.07
FIP 3.79 3.96 3.95
WHIP 1.14 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.91 8.50 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.691 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 3.09 3.98
BP FIP 3.49 3.61 3.89
BP WHIP 1.11 1.19
BP K/9 9.02 9.04
BP Quality* 39.4 43.4 44.4
BP IP 191.7 207.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Danny Coulombe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9890 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 0.9735)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.8 - BOS 4.0
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.8 - BOS 4.0
Win Probability: ATL 58.2% - BOS 41.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -139 / BOS +139
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 48.9%
Under 8.5: 51.1%
ATL -1.5: 41.9%
BOS +1.5: 58.1%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.064 / BOS 0.846
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.887 / BOS 0.977
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.5 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.5 - BOS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATL 53.6% - BOS 46.4% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -115 / BOS +115
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -108 -139 +6.3%
BOS ML -108 +139 -10.2%
ATL -1.5 +142 +138 +0.6%
BOS +1.5 -172 -138 -5.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Huascar Brazobán
ERA: 3.22 ERA: 3.41
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 7.43 K/9: 8.01
BB/9: 2.9 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 3.77
IP: 56.7 IP: 26.0
xERA: 3.56 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN NYM Lg Avg
Record 29-25 22-33
R/Game 4.50 3.82 4.39
RA/Game 4.94 4.38 4.38
OPS 0.708 0.641 0.707
wOBA 0.306 0.278 0.306
ERA 4.67 3.96 4.07
FIP 4.86 3.51 3.95
WHIP 1.45 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.90 9.38 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.457 0.437 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.92 3.35 3.98
BP FIP 5.05 3.33 3.89
BP WHIP 1.52 1.25
BP K/9 8.90 9.38
BP Quality* 57.7 40.4 44.4
BP IP 208.3 228.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sean Manaea (68 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0044 (Temp: 1.0149 | Wind: 0.9897)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.9 - NYM 4.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.0 - NYM 4.0
Win Probability: CIN 49.3% - NYM 50.7%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +103 / NYM -103
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 40.0%
Under 8.5: 60.0%
CIN -1.5: 32.4%
NYM +1.5: 67.6%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.891 / NYM 0.919
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.300 / NYM 0.910
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.2 - NYM 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.2 - NYM 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CIN 56.5% - NYM 43.5% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -130 / NYM +130
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +102 +103 -0.2%
NYM ML -120 -103 -3.9%
CIN -1.5 +164 +209 -5.5%
NYM +1.5 -200 -209 +0.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -150 | Kelly: 3.98%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00644
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Connor Prielipp Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 4.03 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 9.31 K/9: 7.44
BB/9: 3.72 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 3.82
IP: 29.0 IP: 61.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 5.13
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.347
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
Record 27-28 27-27
R/Game 4.62 4.46 4.39
RA/Game 4.55 4.78 4.38
OPS 0.708 0.717 0.707
wOBA 0.309 0.308 0.306
ERA 4.12 4.45 4.07
FIP 3.84 4.20 3.95
WHIP 1.30 1.35 1.30
K/9 7.87 8.26 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 4.75 3.98
BP FIP 3.94 4.42 3.89
BP WHIP 1.48 1.43
BP K/9 7.55 8.35
BP Quality* 53.0 57.9 44.4
BP IP 196.7 235.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0195 (Temp: 0.9912 | Wind: 1.0285)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.3 - CWS 5.0
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.3 - CWS 5.0
Win Probability: MIN 52.0% - CWS 48.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -108 / CWS +108
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 7.5: 72.0%
Under 7.5: 28.0%
MIN -1.5: 37.6%
CWS +1.5: 62.3%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.003 / CWS 1.032
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.194 / CWS 1.304
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.7 - CWS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.7 - CWS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIN 51.7% - CWS 48.3% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -107 / CWS +107
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +100 -108 +2.0%
CWS ML -118 +108 -6.1%
MIN -1.5 +164 +166 -0.2%
CWS +1.5 -200 -166 -4.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +19.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -24.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 19.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00645
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 0.83 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 3.0 K/9: 7.65
BB/9: 4.5 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 3.96
IP: 6.0 IP: 47.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY KC Lg Avg
Record 33-22 22-33
R/Game 4.96 3.84 4.39
RA/Game 3.47 4.56 4.38
OPS 0.770 0.688 0.707
wOBA 0.330 0.298 0.306
ERA 3.19 4.39 4.07
FIP 3.36 4.32 3.95
WHIP 1.17 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.74 8.21 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.658 0.421 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.89 3.98
BP FIP 3.59 4.71 3.89
BP WHIP 1.29 1.55
BP K/9 8.63 8.27
BP Quality* 43.9 62.2 44.4
BP IP 185.7 186.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Yarbrough (44 pitches yesterday)
KC: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luinder Avila (67 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Eli Morgan (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Tolbert (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0163 (Temp: 1.0172 | Wind: 0.9991)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.5 - KC 3.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.5 - KC 3.1
Win Probability: NYY 73.5% - KC 26.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -278 / KC +278
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 9.0: 36.9%
Under 9.0: 53.3%
NYY -1.5: 58.1%
KC +1.5: 41.9%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.627 / KC 0.950
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.989 / KC 1.400
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.6 - KC 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.6 - KC 1.4
F5 Win Prob: NYY 73.1% - KC 26.9% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -271 / KC +271
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -156 -278 +12.6%
KC ML +132 +278 -16.6%
NYY -1.5 +105 -139 +9.4%
KC +1.5 -126 +139 -13.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -15.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +0.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] New York Yankees -1.5 (Run Line) [+105]
Model: 58.1% | Market: 48.8% | Edge: 9.4%
Fair ML: -139 | Kelly: 4.57%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00646
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -156 | Edge: 12.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00647
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mike Burrows Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 4.46 ERA: 3.22
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 0.95
K/9: 8.68 K/9: 9.95
BB/9: 2.99 BB/9: 1.9
FIP: 4.22 FIP: 3.75
IP: 56.3 IP: 53.7
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 3.36
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
Record 24-32 25-29
R/Game 4.45 3.91 4.39
RA/Game 5.20 3.91 4.38
OPS 0.733 0.688 0.707
wOBA 0.314 0.300 0.306
ERA 5.16 3.75 4.07
FIP 4.77 3.97 3.95
WHIP 1.48 1.21 1.30
K/9 8.42 8.57 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.429 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.47 3.14 3.98
BP FIP 5.19 3.84 3.89
BP WHIP 1.53 1.21
BP K/9 8.03 7.42
BP Quality* 58.8 42.2 44.4
BP IP 222.0 189.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0019 (Temp: 1.0078 | Wind: 0.9941)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.1 - TEX 5.0
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.1 - TEX 5.0
Win Probability: HOU 41.7% - TEX 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +140 / TEX -140
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 7.5: 61.8%
Under 7.5: 38.2%
HOU +1.5: 58.2%
TEX -1.5: 41.8%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.061 / TEX 0.855
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.324 / TEX 0.950
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - TEX 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - TEX 2.5
F5 Win Prob: HOU 45.9% - TEX 54.1% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +118 / TEX -118
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +138 +140 -0.3%
TEX ML -164 -140 -3.9%
HOU +1.5 -162 -139 -3.7%
TEX -1.5 +134 +139 -0.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +9.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -14.2%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -162 | Kelly: 4.97%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00648
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Shohei Ohtani
ERA: 4.42 ERA: 2.38
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 5.69 K/9: 11.42
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 1.87
FIP: 5.14 FIP: 1.95
IP: 53.7 IP: 49.0
xERA: 5.81 xERA: 2.53
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: 0.249
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Shohei Ohtani)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
Record 20-36 35-20
R/Game 4.07 5.35 4.39
RA/Game 5.39 3.22 4.38
OPS 0.690 0.785 0.707
wOBA 0.300 0.335 0.306
ERA 5.19 3.15 4.07
FIP 4.55 3.36 3.95
WHIP 1.48 1.10 1.30
K/9 7.42 9.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.374 0.717 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 3.08 3.98
BP FIP 3.93 2.97 3.89
BP WHIP 1.38 1.14
BP K/9 8.36 9.50
BP Quality* 52.9 38.6 44.4
BP IP 252.0 172.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brett Sullivan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Welinton Herrera (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (42 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Will Klein (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Hernández (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9733 (Temp: 0.9843 | Wind: 0.9888)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 2.6 - LAD 6.4
Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - LAD 6.4
Win Probability: COL 16.3% - LAD 83.7%
Fair Moneyline: COL +514 / LAD -514
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 49.8%
Under 8.5: 50.2%
COL +1.5: 29.4%
LAD -1.5: 70.6%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.276 / LAD 0.555
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.191 / LAD 0.869
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 1.2 - LAD 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 1.2 - LAD 3.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 14.1% - LAD 85.9% (Tie: 12.4%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +607 / LAD -607
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +330 +514 -7.0%
LAD ML -420 -514 +2.9%
COL +1.5 +146 +241 -11.3%
LAD -1.5 -176 -241 +6.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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