2026-05-28
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-28
Games: 6 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | May 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grayson Rodriguez Home: Jack Flaherty
ERA: 10.61 ERA: 5.05
WHIP: 2.14 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 8.68 K/9: 10.52
BB/9: 5.79 BB/9: 4.01
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 4.07
IP: 9.3 IP: 47.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: DET (Jack Flaherty)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA DET Lg Avg
Record 21-35 22-34
R/Game 4.05 3.88 4.38
RA/Game 5.16 4.32 4.37
OPS 0.690 0.689 0.706
wOBA 0.300 0.302 0.305
ERA 4.81 3.98 4.05
FIP 4.11 3.77 3.94
WHIP 1.44 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.85 8.37 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.391 0.450 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.24 4.02 3.98
BP FIP 4.70 4.05 3.90
BP WHIP 1.53 1.37
BP K/9 8.78 8.41
BP Quality* 55.6 48.8 44.5
BP IP 206.0 217.3
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brent Suter (40 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones, Zack Short
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Zack Short SS OPS: 0.671 (50 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0588 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0588)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.5 - DET 5.4
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.5 - DET 5.4
Win Probability: LAA 41.1% - DET 58.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +143 / DET -143
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 58.7%
Under 8.5: 41.3%
LAA +1.5: 56.4%
DET -1.5: 43.6%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 1.474 / DET 1.059
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.249 / DET 1.097
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.5 - DET 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.5 - DET 3.2
F5 Win Prob: LAA 40.0% - DET 60.0% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +150 / DET -150
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +110 +143 -6.5%
DET ML -130 -143 +2.4%
LAA +1.5 -182 -129 -8.1%
DET -1.5 +150 +129 +3.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +6.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -11.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kendry Rojas Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 1.26 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 8.79 K/9: 7.44
BB/9: 6.28 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 3.24 FIP: 3.82
IP: 14.3 IP: 61.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 5.13
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.347
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Kendry Rojas)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
Record 27-29 28-27
R/Game 4.57 4.65 4.38
RA/Game 4.73 4.73 4.37
OPS 0.704 0.728 0.706
wOBA 0.307 0.312 0.305
ERA 4.33 4.40 4.05
FIP 3.89 4.21 3.94
WHIP 1.33 1.33 1.30
K/9 7.89 8.20 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.493 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.94 4.73 3.98
BP FIP 4.08 4.45 3.90
BP WHIP 1.53 1.42
BP K/9 7.55 8.28
BP Quality* 52.1 51.9 44.5
BP IP 200.3 238.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Travis Adams (33 pitches yesterday)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), wind out (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0614 (Temp: 0.9906 | Wind: 1.0714)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 5.2 - CWS 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.2 - CWS 4.7
Win Probability: MIN 54.2% - CWS 45.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -118 / CWS +118
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 7.5: 69.0%
Under 7.5: 31.0%
MIN +1.5: 69.0%
CWS -1.5: 31.0%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 0.766 / CWS 1.037
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.171 / CWS 1.166
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.8 - CWS 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.8 - CWS 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIN 60.6% - CWS 39.4% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -154 / CWS +154
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +128 -118 +10.4%
CWS ML -152 +118 -14.5%
MIN +1.5 -162 -222 +7.1%
CWS -1.5 +134 +222 -11.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +16.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -21.4%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Minnesota Twins +1.5 (Run Line) [-162]
Model: 69.0% | Market: 61.8% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -222 | Kelly: 4.68%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00649
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HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Minnesota Twins (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +128 | Edge: 10.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00650
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00651
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | May 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Sale Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 2.38 ERA: 2.45
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 0.82
K/9: 11.43 K/9: 9.57
BB/9: 2.22 BB/9: 2.21
FIP: 2.47 FIP: 2.77
IP: 62.0 IP: 36.7
xERA: 2.87 xERA: 4.7
xwOBA: 0.265 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL BOS Lg Avg
Record 37-19 23-31
R/Game 5.16 3.85 4.38
RA/Game 3.46 4.02 4.37
OPS 0.751 0.690 0.706
wOBA 0.323 0.301 0.305
ERA 3.17 3.74 4.05
FIP 3.80 3.93 3.94
WHIP 1.15 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.82 8.49 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.675 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 3.06 3.98
BP FIP 3.52 3.61 3.90
BP WHIP 1.11 1.19
BP K/9 8.89 9.00
BP Quality* 39.6 40.3 44.5
BP IP 196.3 209.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Carlos Carrasco (46 pitches yesterday)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0184 (Temp: 0.9908 | Wind: 1.0279)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.7 - BOS 3.1
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.7 - BOS 3.1
Win Probability: ATL 66.2% - BOS 33.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -196 / BOS +196
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.0: 48.4%
Under 7.0: 40.1%
ATL -1.5: 48.9%
BOS +1.5: 51.1%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.639 / BOS 0.831
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.890 / BOS 0.906
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.5 - BOS 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.5 - BOS 1.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 69.9% - BOS 30.1% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -232 / BOS +232
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -136 -196 +8.6%
BOS ML +116 +196 -12.5%
ATL -1.5 +126 +104 +4.7%
BOS +1.5 -152 -104 -9.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -12.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Patrick Corbin Home: Chris Bassitt
ERA: 4.26 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 8.24
BB/9: 2.87 BB/9: 2.95
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 3.8
IP: 44.3 IP: 47.3
xERA: 4.77 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
Record 27-29 26-30
R/Game 4.04 4.54 4.38
RA/Game 4.11 5.27 4.37
OPS 0.684 0.709 0.706
wOBA 0.295 0.307 0.305
ERA 3.78 4.68 4.05
FIP 3.44 4.22 3.94
WHIP 1.26 1.43 1.30
K/9 9.30 8.18 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.432 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 4.56 3.98
BP FIP 3.39 3.82 3.90
BP WHIP 1.27 1.35
BP K/9 9.54 8.63
BP Quality* 46.6 52.2 44.5
BP IP 234.0 217.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Andrews (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0297 (Temp: 0.9932 | Wind: 1.0368)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.5 - BAL 5.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.4 - BAL 5.2
Win Probability: TOR 43.1% - BAL 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +132 / BAL -132
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 57.0%
Under 8.5: 43.0%
TOR +1.5: 58.5%
BAL -1.5: 41.5%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 1.074 / BAL 1.001
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.047 / BAL 1.173
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.3 - BAL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.3 - BAL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: TOR 41.4% - BAL 58.6% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +141 / BAL -141
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +108 +132 -5.0%
BAL ML -126 -132 +1.2%
TOR +1.5 -196 -141 -7.7%
BAL -1.5 +162 +141 +3.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Colin Rea Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 2.29
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 7.21 K/9: 10.17
BB/9: 2.57 BB/9: 1.8
FIP: 4.05 FIP: 2.37
IP: 54.0 IP: 60.0
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 2.65
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.255
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
Record 30-26 29-27
R/Game 4.73 4.89 4.38
RA/Game 4.48 4.39 4.37
OPS 0.725 0.724 0.706
wOBA 0.316 0.315 0.305
ERA 4.22 3.81 4.05
FIP 4.35 3.58 3.94
WHIP 1.24 1.24 1.30
K/9 8.18 8.83 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.525 0.549 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 4.13 3.98
BP FIP 4.25 3.90 3.90
BP WHIP 1.24 1.36
BP K/9 8.02 9.22
BP Quality* 45.6 48.2 44.5
BP IP 204.3 215.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0198 (Temp: 0.9962 | Wind: 1.0238)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 3.7 - PIT 5.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.7 - PIT 5.2
Win Probability: CHC 35.8% - PIT 64.2%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +180 / PIT -180
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 59.9%
Under 7.5: 40.1%
CHC +1.5: 52.1%
PIT -1.5: 47.9%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.046 / PIT 0.604
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.025 / PIT 1.083
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 1.6 - PIT 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.6 - PIT 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CHC 27.6% - PIT 72.4% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +263 / PIT -263
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +146 +180 -4.9%
PIT ML -174 -180 +0.7%
CHC +1.5 -146 -109 -7.3%
PIT -1.5 +122 +109 +2.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.93%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00652
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Spencer Arrighetti Home: Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 4.54 ERA: 2.28
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 8.08 K/9: 8.92
BB/9: 5.17 BB/9: 1.62
FIP: 4.86 FIP: 3.03
IP: 41.0 IP: 61.7
xERA: 5.44 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.356 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
Record 25-32 25-30
R/Game 4.44 3.89 4.38
RA/Game 5.16 3.91 4.37
OPS 0.734 0.687 0.706
wOBA 0.314 0.299 0.305
ERA 5.12 3.74 4.05
FIP 4.76 3.99 3.94
WHIP 1.47 1.21 1.30
K/9 8.45 8.56 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.432 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.46 3.14 3.98
BP FIP 5.20 3.93 3.90
BP WHIP 1.52 1.23
BP K/9 8.12 7.39
BP Quality* 57.2 42.8 44.5
BP IP 224.0 192.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chris Martin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9974 (Temp: 1.0036 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 3.7 - TEX 5.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 3.7 - TEX 5.3
Win Probability: HOU 35.1% - TEX 64.9%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +185 / TEX -185
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 7.5: 60.9%
Under 7.5: 39.1%
HOU +1.5: 51.4%
TEX -1.5: 48.6%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.230 / TEX 0.699
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.285 / TEX 0.962
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 1.8 - TEX 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 1.8 - TEX 2.8
F5 Win Prob: HOU 32.6% - TEX 67.3% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +206 / TEX -206
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +124 +185 -9.6%
TEX ML -146 -185 +5.6%
HOU +1.5 -178 -106 -12.6%
TEX -1.5 +146 +106 +8.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +8.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 2 (2 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.5%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.47%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00653
[STANDARD EDGE] Texas Rangers -1.5 (Run Line) [+146]
Model: 48.6% | Market: 40.7% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: +106 | Kelly: 3.36%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00654