2026-05-29
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-29
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grant Holmes Home: Chris Paddack
ERA: 3.93 ERA: 5.7
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 9.24 K/9: 6.69
BB/9: 4.2 BB/9: 2.34
FIP: 4.38 FIP: 4.8
IP: 52.3 IP: 40.7
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 5.03
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.344
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Grant Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL CIN Lg Avg
Record 38-19 29-26
R/Game 5.25 4.45 4.37
RA/Game 3.44 4.93 4.37
OPS 0.756 0.707 0.706
wOBA 0.324 0.306 0.305
ERA 3.15 4.65 4.05
FIP 3.76 4.88 3.94
WHIP 1.15 1.44 1.30
K/9 8.86 7.86 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.684 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.10 4.92 3.97
BP FIP 3.48 5.04 3.90
BP WHIP 1.10 1.52
BP K/9 8.85 8.86
BP Quality* 39.1 54.6 44.4
BP IP 200.3 210.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 2 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0121 (Temp: 1.0131 | Wind: 0.9991)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 7.0 - CIN 4.9
Simulated Avg: ATL 6.9 - CIN 4.8
Win Probability: ATL 66.2% - CIN 33.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -196 / CIN +196
Avg Total Runs: 11.8
Over 9.5: 65.2%
Under 9.5: 34.8%
ATL -1.5: 53.6%
CIN +1.5: 46.4%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.068 / CIN 1.261
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.881 / CIN 1.230
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 3.9 - CIN 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 4.0 - CIN 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATL 63.1% - CIN 36.9% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -171 / CIN +171
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -146 -196 +6.9%
CIN ML +124 +196 -10.9%
ATL -1.5 +104 -115 +4.6%
CIN +1.5 -125 +115 -9.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +12.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -17.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00655
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Lucas Giolito Home: Paxton Schultz
ERA: 3.37 ERA: 5.3
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 7.34 K/9: 10.13
BB/9: 3.69 BB/9: 2.41
FIP: 4.13 FIP: 3.05
IP: 10.0 IP: 18.7
xERA: 5.06 xERA: 3.77
xwOBA: 0.345 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Paxton Schultz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD WSH Lg Avg
Record 31-24 29-28
R/Game 3.89 5.37 4.37
RA/Game 3.91 5.44 4.37
OPS 0.652 0.744 0.706
wOBA 0.283 0.317 0.305
ERA 3.83 4.64 4.05
FIP 3.64 4.47 3.94
WHIP 1.24 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.54 7.89 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.498 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.07 4.60 3.97
BP FIP 3.08 4.47 3.90
BP WHIP 1.17 1.41
BP K/9 9.36 7.20
BP Quality* 37.8 50.1 44.4
BP IP 223.0 270.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9900 (Temp: 1.0084 | Wind: 0.9818)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.3 - WSH 4.7
Simulated Avg: SD 4.3 - WSH 4.7
Win Probability: SD 46.7% - WSH 53.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD +114 / WSH -114
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.0: 40.9%
Under 9.0: 48.9%
SD -1.5: 31.3%
WSH +1.5: 68.7%
Pitcher Adj: SD 0.900 / WSH 1.211
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.851 / WSH 1.128
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.5 - WSH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.5 - WSH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: SD 48.5% - WSH 51.5% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +106 / WSH -106
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -110 +114 -5.7%
WSH ML -106 -114 +1.9%
SD -1.5 +150 +220 -8.7%
WSH +1.5 -184 -220 +4.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Taj Bradley Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN PIT Lg Avg
Record 27-30 29-28
R/Game 4.53 4.84 4.37
RA/Game 4.75 4.44 4.37
OPS 0.699 0.723 0.706
wOBA 0.305 0.315 0.305
ERA 4.35 3.81 4.05
FIP 3.86 3.58 3.94
WHIP 1.33 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.94 8.92 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.540 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.81 4.19 3.97
BP FIP 4.01 3.95 3.90
BP WHIP 1.51 1.37
BP K/9 7.61 9.23
BP Quality* 58.6 50.2 44.4
BP IP 205.7 219.3
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Travis Adams (B2B, 33 pitches)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brandan Bidois (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9818 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 0.9774)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.5 - PIT 5.4
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.5 - PIT 5.4
Win Probability: MIN 41.2% - PIT 58.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +143 / PIT -143
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 59.4%
Under 8.0: 31.0%
MIN +1.5: 56.3%
PIT -1.5: 43.7%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.021 / PIT 1.000
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.320 / PIT 1.131
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.4 - PIT 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.4 - PIT 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIN 45.6% - PIT 54.4% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +119 / PIT -119
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +114 +143 -5.5%
PIT ML -134 -143 +1.6%
MIN +1.5 -192 -129 -9.5%
PIT -1.5 +158 +129 +5.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.4%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.0%
Fair ML: -146 | Kelly: 3.68%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00656
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Trevor Rogers
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
Record 28-29 26-31
R/Game 4.00 4.47 4.37
RA/Game 4.05 5.21 4.37
OPS 0.684 0.708 0.706
wOBA 0.295 0.306 0.305
ERA 3.73 4.63 4.05
FIP 3.43 4.24 3.94
WHIP 1.25 1.43 1.30
K/9 9.28 8.12 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.431 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.54 3.97
BP FIP 3.35 3.84 3.90
BP WHIP 1.26 1.36
BP K/9 9.53 8.63
BP Quality* 44.6 50.8 44.4
BP IP 238.0 220.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9890 (Temp: 0.9995 | Wind: 0.9895)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.7 - BAL 4.6
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.7 - BAL 4.6
Win Probability: TOR 40.8% - BAL 59.2%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +145 / BAL -145
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 44.0%
Under 8.5: 56.0%
TOR -1.5: 25.1%
BAL +1.5: 74.8%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 1.000 / BAL 0.802
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.005 / BAL 1.144
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.8 - BAL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.8 - BAL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TOR 36.9% - BAL 63.1% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +171 / BAL -171
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -102 +145 -9.7%
BAL ML -116 -145 +5.5%
TOR -1.5 +168 +298 -12.2%
BAL +1.5 -205 -298 +7.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (Run Line) [-205]
Model: 74.9% | Market: 67.2% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -298 | Kelly: 5.82%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00657
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Samaniego Home: Slade Cecconi
ERA: 1.04 ERA: 4.58
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 7.41
BB/9: 3.63 BB/9: 2.48
FIP: 3.56 FIP: 4.54
IP: 17.3 IP: 57.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.99
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Tyler Samaniego)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS CLE Lg Avg
Record 23-32 33-25
R/Game 3.82 4.14 4.37
RA/Game 4.13 3.91 4.37
OPS 0.689 0.692 0.706
wOBA 0.301 0.301 0.305
ERA 3.86 3.64 4.05
FIP 3.99 3.82 3.94
WHIP 1.26 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.51 9.45 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.525 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.33 3.59 3.97
BP FIP 3.79 3.56 3.90
BP WHIP 1.20 1.27
BP K/9 8.94 10.51
BP Quality* 49.6 40.7 44.4
BP IP 213.3 195.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Ryan Watson (B2B, 34 pitches)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Coulombe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (31 pitches yesterday)
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9916 (Temp: 1.0008 | Wind: 0.9909)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.8 - CLE 3.5
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.8 - CLE 3.5
Win Probability: BOS 53.5% - CLE 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -115 / CLE +115
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 8.0: 32.6%
Under 8.0: 56.8%
BOS +1.5: 71.7%
CLE -1.5: 28.3%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.675 / CLE 1.162
Bullpen Adj: BOS 1.117 / CLE 0.917
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.4 - CLE 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.4 - CLE 1.5
F5 Win Prob: BOS 66.5% - CLE 33.6% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -198 / CLE +198
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +104 -115 +4.5%
CLE ML -122 +115 -8.5%
BOS +1.5 -210 -253 +3.9%
CLE -1.5 +172 +253 -8.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -19.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +4.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walbert Ureña Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 2.58 ERA: 3.61
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.45 K/9: 6.05
BB/9: 5.17 BB/9: 2.15
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 3.96
IP: 38.3 IP: 59.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA TB Lg Avg
Record 22-35 34-19
R/Game 4.11 4.64 4.37
RA/Game 5.09 4.19 4.37
OPS 0.693 0.720 0.706
wOBA 0.301 0.310 0.305
ERA 4.74 3.59 4.05
FIP 4.13 3.99 3.94
WHIP 1.43 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.85 7.70 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.403 0.547 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.14 4.39 3.97
BP FIP 4.70 4.47 3.90
BP WHIP 1.53 1.33
BP K/9 8.79 7.94
BP Quality* 55.3 48.5 44.4
BP IP 210.0 215.3
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.9 - TB 4.4
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.9 - TB 4.4
Win Probability: LAA 44.4% - TB 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +125 / TB -125
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 44.4%
Under 8.0: 44.9%
LAA +1.5: 61.8%
TB -1.5: 38.2%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.791 / TB 0.963
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.245 / TB 1.092
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.1 - TB 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.1 - TB 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 52.3% - TB 47.7% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -110 / TB +110
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +146 +125 +3.7%
TB ML -174 -125 -7.9%
LAA +1.5 -150 -162 +1.8%
TB -1.5 +125 +162 -6.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Max Meyer Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 4.04 ERA: 2.96
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 9.66 K/9: 10.03
BB/9: 2.93 BB/9: 3.55
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 3.65
IP: 60.7 IP: 61.3
xERA: 4.8 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
Record 26-31 23-33
R/Game 4.23 3.82 4.37
RA/Game 4.46 4.34 4.37
OPS 0.696 0.642 0.706
wOBA 0.304 0.278 0.305
ERA 4.19 3.91 4.05
FIP 3.78 3.52 3.94
WHIP 1.27 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.65 9.35 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.30 3.28 3.97
BP FIP 3.32 3.37 3.90
BP WHIP 1.17 1.27
BP K/9 9.40 9.29
BP Quality* 38.4 39.1 44.4
BP IP 202.0 236.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9749 (Temp: 1.0030 | Wind: 0.9720)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.4 - NYM 3.6
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.3 - NYM 3.6
Win Probability: MIA 46.9% - NYM 53.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +113 / NYM -113
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 7.5: 39.2%
Under 7.5: 60.8%
MIA +1.5: 66.1%
NYM -1.5: 33.9%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.045 / NYM 0.840
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.865 / NYM 0.881
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIA 45.0% - NYM 55.0% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +122 / NYM -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +106 +113 -1.7%
NYM ML -124 -113 -2.2%
MIA +1.5 -215 -195 -2.2%
NYM -1.5 +176 +195 -2.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -13.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +8.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.40%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00658
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shota Imanaga Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 3.83 ERA: 4.87
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 7.92 K/9: 6.4
BB/9: 1.86 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 4.48
IP: 64.7 IP: 55.0
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
Record 31-26 29-25
R/Game 4.77 4.35 4.37
RA/Game 4.44 4.54 4.37
OPS 0.723 0.701 0.706
wOBA 0.315 0.302 0.305
ERA 4.19 4.22 4.05
FIP 4.35 4.17 3.94
WHIP 1.24 1.37 1.30
K/9 8.17 7.66 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.533 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 4.35 3.97
BP FIP 4.22 4.08 3.90
BP WHIP 1.24 1.39
BP K/9 8.00 8.06
BP Quality* 48.2 47.3 44.4
BP IP 208.0 198.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Caleb Thielbar (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0139 (Temp: 1.0177 | Wind: 0.9963)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.1 - STL 4.7
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.1 - STL 4.7
Win Probability: CHC 53.8% - STL 46.2%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -117 / STL +117
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.0: 58.8%
Under 8.0: 31.3%
CHC -1.5: 39.1%
STL +1.5: 60.9%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.033 / STL 1.115
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.086 / STL 1.065
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.9 - STL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.9 - STL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CHC 56.6% - STL 43.4% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -130 / STL +130
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -142 -117 -4.8%
STL ML +120 +117 +0.7%
CHC -1.5 +120 +155 -6.3%
STL +1.5 -144 -155 +1.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Troy Melton Home: Erick Fedde
ERA: 2.73 ERA: 5.49
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.51
K/9: 7.02 K/9: 5.37
BB/9: 3.01 BB/9: 4.15
FIP: 4.48 FIP: 5.32
IP: 5.7 IP: 49.3
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: DET (Troy Melton)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
Record 22-35 29-27
R/Game 3.82 4.68 4.37
RA/Game 4.37 4.68 4.37
OPS 0.686 0.727 0.706
wOBA 0.301 0.312 0.305
ERA 4.03 4.36 4.05
FIP 3.73 4.17 3.94
WHIP 1.29 1.32 1.30
K/9 8.44 8.19 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 4.71 3.97
BP FIP 4.03 4.41 3.90
BP WHIP 1.38 1.41
BP K/9 8.40 8.29
BP Quality* 50.6 51.6 44.4
BP IP 220.7 241.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Brenan Hanifee (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Ricky Vanasco (47 pitches yesterday)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0176 (Temp: 0.9946 | Wind: 1.0231)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.8 - CWS 4.9
Simulated Avg: DET 4.8 - CWS 4.9
Win Probability: DET 48.5% - CWS 51.5%
Fair Moneyline: DET +106 / CWS -106
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.8%
Under 8.5: 42.2%
DET -1.5: 33.9%
CWS +1.5: 66.1%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.931 / CWS 1.332
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.140 / CWS 1.162
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.9 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.9 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 55.5% - CWS 44.5% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -124 / CWS +124
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -120 +106 -6.1%
CWS ML +102 -106 +2.0%
DET -1.5 +138 +195 -8.1%
CWS +1.5 -166 -195 +3.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Stephen Kolek Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 3.43 ERA: 4.25
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 6.0 K/9: 10.34
BB/9: 2.39 BB/9: 3.81
FIP: 3.66 FIP: 3.63
IP: 26.0 IP: 55.0
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC TEX Lg Avg
Record 22-34 25-31
R/Game 3.77 3.84 4.37
RA/Game 4.61 3.93 4.37
OPS 0.683 0.684 0.706
wOBA 0.296 0.298 0.305
ERA 4.44 3.76 4.05
FIP 4.32 4.02 3.94
WHIP 1.39 1.21 1.30
K/9 8.19 8.53 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.409 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.02 3.10 3.97
BP FIP 4.76 3.91 3.90
BP WHIP 1.55 1.22
BP K/9 8.24 7.36
BP Quality* 53.9 41.0 44.4
BP IP 190.0 194.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9980 (Temp: 1.0228 | Wind: 0.9758)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.8 - TEX 4.5
Simulated Avg: KC 3.8 - TEX 4.5
Win Probability: KC 42.4% - TEX 57.6%
Fair Moneyline: KC +136 / TEX -136
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.1%
Under 7.5: 45.9%
KC +1.5: 59.2%
TEX -1.5: 40.8%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.997 / TEX 0.995
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.214 / TEX 0.923
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.2 - TEX 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.2 - TEX 2.3
F5 Win Prob: KC 48.7% - TEX 51.3% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +105 / TEX -105
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +108 +136 -5.7%
TEX ML -126 -136 +1.9%
KC +1.5 -210 -145 -8.5%
TEX -1.5 +172 +145 +4.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +1.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Coleman Crow Home: Kai-Wei Teng
ERA: 2.61 ERA: 2.19
WHIP: 0.77 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 6.1 K/9: 8.76
BB/9: 0.87 BB/9: 3.65
FIP: 2.03 FIP: 3.42
IP: 10.3 IP: 37.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.02
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Coleman Crow)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL HOU Lg Avg
Record 33-20 26-32
R/Game 4.89 4.45 4.37
RA/Game 3.42 5.09 4.37
OPS 0.696 0.732 0.706
wOBA 0.302 0.313 0.305
ERA 3.14 5.05 4.05
FIP 3.12 4.74 3.94
WHIP 1.19 1.46 1.30
K/9 9.79 8.45 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.658 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.26 5.39 3.97
BP FIP 3.24 5.16 3.90
BP WHIP 1.28 1.52
BP K/9 9.03 8.21
BP Quality* 40.2 58.2 44.4
BP IP 212.3 227.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9915 (Temp: 1.0128 | Wind: 0.9791)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.8 - HOU 3.6
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.8 - HOU 3.6
Win Probability: MIL 62.4% - HOU 37.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -166 / HOU +166
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 45.1%
Under 8.5: 54.9%
MIL -1.5: 45.7%
HOU +1.5: 54.3%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.723 / HOU 0.820
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.905 / HOU 1.311
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.2 - HOU 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.2 - HOU 1.8
F5 Win Prob: MIL 57.8% - HOU 42.2% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -137 / HOU +137
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -118 -166 +8.3%
HOU ML +100 +166 -12.4%
MIL -1.5 +134 +119 +2.9%
HOU +1.5 -162 -119 -7.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Webb Home: Michael Lorenzen
ERA: 3.64 ERA: 5.45
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.51
K/9: 9.31 K/9: 7.7
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 2.65
FIP: 2.68 FIP: 4.61
IP: 48.0 IP: 53.7
xERA: 3.58 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF COL Lg Avg
Record 22-34 20-37
R/Game 3.64 4.02 4.37
RA/Game 4.61 5.37 4.37
OPS 0.681 0.683 0.706
wOBA 0.291 0.297 0.305
ERA 4.21 5.18 4.05
FIP 4.07 4.60 3.94
WHIP 1.34 1.47 1.30
K/9 8.04 7.38 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.394 0.370 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.35 4.51 3.97
BP FIP 3.93 3.97 3.90
BP WHIP 1.30 1.37
BP K/9 7.77 8.28
BP Quality* 42.8 46.9 44.4
BP IP 191.0 255.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0074 (Temp: 1.0104 | Wind: 0.9971)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.7 - COL 4.1
Simulated Avg: SF 4.7 - COL 4.1
Win Probability: SF 55.2% - COL 44.8%
Fair Moneyline: SF -123 / COL +123
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 10.5: 29.9%
Under 10.5: 70.1%
SF -1.5: 39.2%
COL +1.5: 60.8%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.799 / COL 1.190
Bullpen Adj: SF 0.964 / COL 1.056
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.8 - COL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.8 - COL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SF 61.3% - COL 38.7% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -158 / COL +158
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML -166 -123 -7.2%
COL ML +140 +123 +3.1%
SF -1.5 -111 +155 -13.4%
COL +1.5 -110 -155 +8.4%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -22.4%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +17.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [-110]
Model: 60.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.42%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00659
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00660
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Carlos Rodón Home: Luis Severino
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 4.44
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 9.56 K/9: 7.64
BB/9: 3.73 BB/9: 3.32
FIP: 3.56 FIP: 3.92
IP: 13.0 IP: 61.7
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Carlos Rodón)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY ATH Lg Avg
Record 34-22 27-29
R/Game 5.00 4.21 4.37
RA/Game 3.41 4.66 4.37
OPS 0.770 0.716 0.706
wOBA 0.329 0.309 0.305
ERA 3.14 4.36 4.05
FIP 3.31 4.56 3.94
WHIP 1.16 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.76 8.02 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.668 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.40 4.32 3.97
BP FIP 3.58 3.89 3.90
BP WHIP 1.27 1.38
BP K/9 8.52 8.42
BP Quality* 40.6 47.6 44.4
BP IP 188.0 212.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9649 (Temp: 0.9828 | Wind: 0.9818)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.2 - ATH 3.6
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.2 - ATH 3.6
Win Probability: NYY 66.0% - ATH 34.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -194 / ATH +194
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
NYY -1.5: 49.9%
NYY +1.5: 80.0%
ATH -1.5: 20.0%
ATH +1.5: 50.1%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.779 / ATH 1.060
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.914 / ATH 1.072
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.9 - ATH 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.9 - ATH 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYY 67.8% - ATH 32.2% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -210 / ATH +210
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zac Gallen Home: George Kirby
ERA: 4.82 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 8.98
BB/9: 3.01 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 4.36 FIP: 3.21
IP: 54.3 IP: 68.7
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SEA Lg Avg
Record 31-24 28-29
R/Game 4.64 4.21 4.37
RA/Game 4.38 3.79 4.37
OPS 0.716 0.700 0.706
wOBA 0.307 0.306 0.305
ERA 4.02 3.54 4.05
FIP 4.04 3.44 3.94
WHIP 1.24 1.22 1.30
K/9 7.26 8.62 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.548 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.16 3.97
BP FIP 3.87 3.28 3.90
BP WHIP 1.16 1.33
BP K/9 7.61 8.90
BP Quality* 46.6 38.8 44.4
BP IP 179.7 182.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 51°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Cool (51°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9788 (Temp: 0.9748 | Wind: 1.0041)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 3.7 - SEA 4.3
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.7 - SEA 4.3
Win Probability: ARI 44.0% - SEA 56.0%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +127 / SEA -127
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 51.1%
Under 7.5: 48.9%
ARI +1.5: 61.9%
SEA -1.5: 38.1%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.097 / SEA 0.899
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.050 / SEA 0.874
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - SEA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - SEA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ARI 45.1% - SEA 54.9% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +122 / SEA -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +128 +127 +0.2%
SEA ML -152 -127 -4.3%
ARI +1.5 -166 -162 -0.5%
SEA -1.5 +138 +162 -3.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -3.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Justin Wrobleski
ERA: 2.53 ERA: 4.03
WHIP: 0.92 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 11.19 K/9: 9.06
BB/9: 1.97 BB/9: 2.29
FIP: 2.7 FIP: 2.92
IP: 37.7 IP: 55.7
xERA: 2.49 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.247 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI LAD Lg Avg
Record 29-27 36-20
R/Game 3.98 5.32 4.37
RA/Game 4.29 3.18 4.37
OPS 0.682 0.786 0.706
wOBA 0.295 0.336 0.305
ERA 3.97 3.12 4.05
FIP 3.24 3.33 3.94
WHIP 1.30 1.09 1.30
K/9 9.51 9.04 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.720 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.88 3.03 3.97
BP FIP 3.23 2.93 3.90
BP WHIP 1.29 1.12
BP K/9 9.94 9.50
BP Quality* 40.3 35.0 44.4
BP IP 197.3 175.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9799 (Temp: 0.9872 | Wind: 0.9926)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.0 - LAD 3.9
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.0 - LAD 3.9
Win Probability: PHI 40.0% - LAD 60.0%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +150 / LAD -150
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 8.5: 28.2%
Under 8.5: 71.8%
PHI -1.5: 22.7%
LAD +1.5: 77.3%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.638 / LAD 0.834
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.908 / LAD 0.788
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 1.7 - LAD 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.7 - LAD 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 48.2% - LAD 51.8% (Tie: 20.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +108 / LAD -108
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +100 +150 -10.0%
LAD ML -118 -150 +5.9%
PHI -1.5 +160 +341 -15.8%
LAD +1.5 -194 -341 +11.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -24.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +19.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 19.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00661
[HMC] Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -194 | Edge: 11.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00662