2026-05-30
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-05-30
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Framber Valdez Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 3.85 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 8.33 K/9: 6.71
BB/9: 3.25 BB/9: 3.96
FIP: 3.43 FIP: 4.67
IP: 61.0 IP: 52.3
xERA: 3.79 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
Record 22-36 30-27
R/Game 3.81 4.67 4.39
RA/Game 4.36 4.65 4.38
OPS 0.682 0.728 0.707
wOBA 0.300 0.312 0.306
ERA 4.01 4.31 4.06
FIP 3.74 4.16 3.96
WHIP 1.29 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.33 8.19 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.438 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.15 4.61 3.97
BP FIP 4.06 4.40 3.90
BP WHIP 1.38 1.39
BP K/9 8.38 8.29
BP Quality* 50.8 51.0 44.4
BP IP 223.3 249.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (84 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Zach McKinstry, Colt Keith
Zach McKinstry 2B OPS: 0.771 (452 AB)
Colt Keith 3B OPS: 0.746 (414 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.4% of full strength
CWS (Home): Full strength lineup confirmed
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind out (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0609 (Temp: 0.9968 | Wind: 1.0644)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.2 - CWS 5.1
Simulated Avg: DET 4.2 - CWS 5.0
Win Probability: DET 41.5% - CWS 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: DET +141 / CWS -141
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 7.5: 63.2%
Under 7.5: 36.8%
DET -1.5: 26.8%
CWS +1.5: 73.2%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.902 / CWS 1.080
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.144 / CWS 1.149
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.3 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.3 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 46.2% - CWS 53.8% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +116 / CWS -116
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML -120 +141 -13.1%
CWS ML +102 -141 +9.0%
DET -1.5 +142 +273 -14.5%
CWS +1.5 -172 -273 +9.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +10.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-172]
Model: 73.2% | Market: 63.2% | Edge: 9.9%
Fair ML: -273 | Kelly: 6.76%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00663
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00664
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael King Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 3.23 ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 9.27 K/9: 8.71
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 2.76
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 4.18
IP: 62.0 IP: 62.0
xERA: 4.27 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD WSH Lg Avg
Record 32-24 29-29
R/Game 3.95 5.36 4.39
RA/Game 3.93 5.47 4.38
OPS 0.654 0.745 0.707
wOBA 0.284 0.318 0.306
ERA 3.85 4.65 4.06
FIP 3.69 4.50 3.96
WHIP 1.25 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.53 7.84 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.02 4.60 3.97
BP FIP 3.05 4.53 3.90
BP WHIP 1.17 1.41
BP K/9 9.38 7.12
BP Quality* 42.0 56.4 44.4
BP IP 229.3 278.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (30 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Alvarez (74 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mitchell Parker (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cole Henry (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0638 (Temp: 0.9999 | Wind: 1.0639)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.4 - WSH 5.4
Simulated Avg: SD 4.4 - WSH 5.4
Win Probability: SD 41.2% - WSH 58.8%
Fair Moneyline: SD +143 / WSH -143
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 7.5: 68.6%
Under 7.5: 31.4%
SD -1.5: 27.2%
WSH +1.5: 72.8%
Pitcher Adj: SD 0.959 / WSH 0.975
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.946 / WSH 1.270
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Win Prob: SD 37.6% - WSH 62.4% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +166 / WSH -166
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -130 +143 -15.3%
WSH ML +110 -143 +11.2%
SD -1.5 +136 +268 -15.2%
WSH +1.5 -164 -268 +10.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +16.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -21.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +110 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00665
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00666
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -164 | Edge: 10.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00667
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Seth Lugo Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 5.28
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 7.66 K/9: 7.76
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 4.35 FIP: 4.5
IP: 65.0 IP: 50.0
xERA: 5.16 xERA: 5.73
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: 0.364
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC TEX Lg Avg
Record 22-35 26-31
R/Game 3.72 3.93 4.39
RA/Game 4.68 3.88 4.38
OPS 0.680 0.690 0.707
wOBA 0.295 0.300 0.306
ERA 4.49 3.71 4.06
FIP 4.35 4.00 3.96
WHIP 1.39 1.20 1.30
K/9 8.23 8.47 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.396 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.08 3.11 3.97
BP FIP 4.83 3.91 3.90
BP WHIP 1.55 1.23
BP K/9 8.35 7.36
BP Quality* 54.4 44.2 44.4
BP IP 193.0 197.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gavin Collyer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Evan Carter, Sam Haggerty, Kyle Higashioka
Evan Carter CF OPS: 0.728 (194 AB)
Sam Haggerty LF OPS: 0.698 (162 AB)
Kyle Higashioka C OPS: 0.694 (303 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9856 (Temp: 1.0291 | Wind: 0.9577)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.4 - TEX 4.6
Simulated Avg: KC 4.4 - TEX 4.6
Win Probability: KC 47.5% - TEX 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +110 / TEX -110
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 51.5%
Under 8.0: 38.1%
KC +1.5: 64.0%
TEX -1.5: 36.0%
Pitcher Adj: KC 1.121 / TEX 1.262
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.225 / TEX 0.995
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.7 - TEX 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.7 - TEX 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 54.3% - TEX 45.7% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -119 / TEX +119
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +106 +110 -1.0%
TEX ML -124 -110 -2.9%
KC +1.5 -210 -177 -3.8%
TEX -1.5 +172 +177 -0.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trey Yesavage Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 2.25 ERA: 5.69
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.51
K/9: 9.84 K/9: 7.16
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 3.54
FIP: 1.85 FIP: 5.21
IP: 32.0 IP: 36.3
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Trey Yesavage)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
Record 29-29 26-32
R/Game 4.03 4.48 4.39
RA/Game 4.07 5.22 4.38
OPS 0.689 0.710 0.707
wOBA 0.297 0.307 0.306
ERA 3.75 4.65 4.06
FIP 3.51 4.25 3.96
WHIP 1.25 1.43 1.30
K/9 9.17 8.07 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.496 0.430 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 4.56 3.97
BP FIP 3.53 3.81 3.90
BP WHIP 1.26 1.36
BP K/9 9.32 8.60
BP Quality* 50.2 50.7 44.4
BP IP 245.3 223.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Austin Voth (70 pitches yesterday)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Keegan Akin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind out (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0605 (Temp: 0.9981 | Wind: 1.0626)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 5.1 - BAL 4.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 5.1 - BAL 4.2
Win Probability: TOR 57.7% - BAL 42.3%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -136 / BAL +136
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 7.5: 64.1%
Under 7.5: 35.9%
TOR -1.5: 42.1%
BAL +1.5: 57.9%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.674 / BAL 1.232
Bullpen Adj: TOR 1.131 / BAL 1.142
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 3.0 - BAL 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 3.0 - BAL 1.8
F5 Win Prob: TOR 68.3% - BAL 31.7% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -215 / BAL +215
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -122 -136 +2.7%
BAL ML +104 +136 -6.7%
TOR -1.5 +146 +138 +1.4%
BAL +1.5 -178 -138 -6.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +11.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -16.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00668
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bailey Ober Home: Mitch Keller
ERA: 4.73 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 7.02 K/9: 7.28
BB/9: 2.09 BB/9: 2.62
FIP: 4.65 FIP: 3.67
IP: 62.0 IP: 64.3
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Mitch Keller)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN PIT Lg Avg
Record 27-31 30-28
R/Game 4.53 4.86 4.39
RA/Game 4.78 4.45 4.38
OPS 0.699 0.723 0.707
wOBA 0.305 0.315 0.306
ERA 4.38 3.84 4.06
FIP 3.87 3.59 3.96
WHIP 1.33 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.04 8.97 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.541 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.80 4.10 3.97
BP FIP 4.03 3.88 3.90
BP WHIP 1.50 1.35
BP K/9 7.76 9.28
BP Quality* 57.1 49.4 44.4
BP IP 210.0 224.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Eric Orze (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Travis Adams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wilber Dotel (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0466 (Temp: 0.9994 | Wind: 1.0472)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.8 - PIT 6.1
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.7 - PIT 6.1
Win Probability: MIN 38.5% - PIT 61.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +160 / PIT -160
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 8.5: 66.9%
Under 8.5: 33.1%
MIN +1.5: 52.8%
PIT -1.5: 47.2%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.125 / PIT 0.993
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.286 / PIT 1.113
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.5 - PIT 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.5 - PIT 3.1
F5 Win Prob: MIN 40.9% - PIT 59.1% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +145 / PIT -145
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +118 +160 -7.4%
PIT ML -138 -160 +3.6%
MIN +1.5 -184 -112 -12.0%
PIT -1.5 +152 +112 +7.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +14.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -19.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line) [+152]
Model: 47.2% | Market: 39.7% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: +112 | Kelly: 3.11%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00669
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00670
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sonny Gray Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 2.57
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 9.22 K/9: 8.99
BB/9: 1.98 BB/9: 1.77
FIP: 3.35 FIP: 2.97
IP: 44.0 IP: 64.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS CLE Lg Avg
Record 23-33 34-25
R/Game 3.80 4.14 4.39
RA/Game 4.12 3.90 4.38
OPS 0.689 0.692 0.707
wOBA 0.301 0.301 0.306
ERA 3.87 3.63 4.06
FIP 3.94 3.77 3.96
WHIP 1.26 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.50 9.42 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.463 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.23 3.51 3.97
BP FIP 3.73 3.50 3.90
BP WHIP 1.18 1.26
BP K/9 8.86 10.48
BP Quality* 42.8 43.1 44.4
BP IP 220.3 200.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (63 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), wind out (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0588 (Temp: 0.9909 | Wind: 1.0686)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.1 - CLE 4.0
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.2 - CLE 4.0
Win Probability: BOS 39.6% - CLE 60.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +152 / CLE -152
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 6.5: 54.0%
Under 6.5: 46.0%
BOS +1.5: 58.5%
CLE -1.5: 41.5%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.912 / CLE 0.716
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.964 / CLE 0.971
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.5 - CLE 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.5 - CLE 2.2
F5 Win Prob: BOS 37.2% - CLE 62.8% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +169 / CLE -169
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +110 +152 -8.0%
CLE ML -130 -152 +3.8%
BOS +1.5 -220 -141 -10.2%
CLE -1.5 +180 +141 +5.8%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +1.6%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -6.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Reid Detmers Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 2.77
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 11.12 K/9: 7.83
BB/9: 3.27 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 2.89 FIP: 3.64
IP: 63.0 IP: 55.0
xERA: 3.61 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA TB Lg Avg
Record 22-36 35-19
R/Game 4.12 4.70 4.39
RA/Game 5.14 4.20 4.38
OPS 0.693 0.726 0.707
wOBA 0.301 0.313 0.306
ERA 4.77 3.63 4.06
FIP 4.18 3.96 3.96
WHIP 1.44 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.84 7.71 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.400 0.551 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.31 4.47 3.97
BP FIP 4.80 4.48 3.90
BP WHIP 1.55 1.34
BP K/9 8.79 7.99
BP Quality* 58.0 51.9 44.4
BP IP 212.0 217.3
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hunter Bigge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Hunter Feduccia
Hunter Feduccia C OPS: 0.472 (88 AB)
Run Adjustment: 100.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.8 - TB 4.8
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.7 - TB 4.8
Win Probability: LAA 39.3% - TB 60.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +154 / TB -154
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.0: 56.7%
Under 7.0: 32.3%
LAA +1.5: 56.2%
TB -1.5: 43.8%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.851 / TB 0.829
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.306 / TB 1.169
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 1.8 - TB 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.8 - TB 2.1
F5 Win Prob: LAA 43.5% - TB 56.5% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +130 / TB -130
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +136 +154 -3.0%
TB ML -162 -154 -1.2%
LAA +1.5 -172 -129 -7.0%
TB -1.5 +142 +129 +2.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -20.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Phillips Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 2.73 ERA: 3.2
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 6.09 K/9: 10.66
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 4.97
FIP: 4.01 FIP: 2.9
IP: 33.7 IP: 25.3
xERA: 3.64 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
Record 26-32 24-33
R/Game 4.28 3.91 4.39
RA/Game 4.53 4.39 4.38
OPS 0.699 0.643 0.707
wOBA 0.305 0.279 0.306
ERA 4.24 3.92 4.06
FIP 3.80 3.52 3.96
WHIP 1.27 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.65 9.33 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.33 3.31 3.97
BP FIP 3.36 3.40 3.90
BP WHIP 1.17 1.27
BP K/9 9.38 9.24
BP Quality* 41.6 43.8 44.4
BP IP 205.3 241.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), strong crosswind (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0055 (Temp: 0.9846 | Wind: 1.0212)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.8 - NYM 3.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.8 - NYM 3.5
Win Probability: MIA 53.0% - NYM 47.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -113 / NYM +113
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.0: 43.6%
Under 7.0: 44.6%
MIA +1.5: 71.1%
NYM -1.5: 28.9%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 0.877 / NYM 0.895
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.937 / NYM 0.986
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.0 - NYM 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.0 - NYM 1.9
F5 Win Prob: MIA 53.2% - NYM 46.8% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -114 / NYM +114
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +112 -113 +5.8%
NYM ML -132 +113 -9.9%
MIA +1.5 -210 -246 +3.3%
NYM -1.5 +172 +246 -7.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -8.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -7.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 5.84 ERA: 3.79
WHIP: 1.54 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.67 K/9: 8.93
BB/9: 5.44 BB/9: 4.02
FIP: 5.38 FIP: 3.1
IP: 44.7 IP: 40.3
xERA: 4.13 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL HOU Lg Avg
Record 34-20 26-33
R/Game 4.89 4.44 4.39
RA/Game 3.43 5.08 4.38
OPS 0.694 0.730 0.707
wOBA 0.301 0.312 0.306
ERA 3.12 5.02 4.06
FIP 3.14 4.76 3.96
WHIP 1.18 1.45 1.30
K/9 9.76 8.44 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.657 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.17 5.31 3.97
BP FIP 3.20 5.12 3.90
BP WHIP 1.26 1.50
BP K/9 9.11 8.11
BP Quality* 42.5 62.2 44.4
BP IP 218.3 232.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: DL Hall (36 pitches yesterday)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Zach Dezenzo
Zach Dezenzo LF OPS: 0.688 (98 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0092 (Temp: 1.0228 | Wind: 0.9867)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.2 - HOU 5.1
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.2 - HOU 5.1
Win Probability: MIL 50.6% - HOU 49.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -103 / HOU +103
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.5: 61.8%
Under 8.5: 38.2%
MIL -1.5: 36.2%
HOU +1.5: 63.8%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 1.246 / HOU 0.832
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.957 / HOU 1.400
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.3 - HOU 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.3 - HOU 3.1
F5 Win Prob: MIL 37.6% - HOU 62.4% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +166 / HOU -166
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -112 -103 -2.2%
HOU ML -104 +103 -1.6%
MIL -1.5 +150 +176 -3.8%
HOU +1.5 -182 -176 -0.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +9.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -14.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.4%
Fair ML: -162 | Kelly: 4.96%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00671
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ben Brown Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 5.47 ERA: 3.46
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 10.15 K/9: 7.97
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 3.74 FIP: 3.5
IP: 44.7 IP: 50.7
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
Record 31-27 30-25
R/Game 4.78 4.38 4.39
RA/Game 4.47 4.55 4.38
OPS 0.724 0.706 0.707
wOBA 0.315 0.304 0.306
ERA 4.23 4.23 4.06
FIP 4.40 4.15 3.96
WHIP 1.24 1.37 1.30
K/9 8.14 7.66 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.531 0.483 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 4.27 3.97
BP FIP 4.18 4.00 3.90
BP WHIP 1.24 1.36
BP K/9 8.03 8.05
BP Quality* 49.5 47.9 44.4
BP IP 210.7 204.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0028 (Temp: 1.0156 | Wind: 0.9874)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.6 - STL 4.9
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.6 - STL 4.9
Win Probability: CHC 47.5% - STL 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +111 / STL -111
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 56.0%
Under 8.0: 34.0%
CHC -1.5: 32.7%
STL +1.5: 67.3%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.098 / STL 0.939
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.115 / STL 1.079
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.5 - STL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.5 - STL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CHC 46.3% - STL 53.7% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +116 / STL -116
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -132 +111 -9.4%
STL ML +112 -111 +5.4%
CHC -1.5 +130 +205 -10.7%
STL +1.5 -156 -205 +6.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Martín Pérez Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 3.37 ERA: 4.67
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.2 K/9: 8.08
BB/9: 3.41 BB/9: 2.94
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 4.46
IP: 46.7 IP: 46.0
xERA: 5.37 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Martín Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CIN Lg Avg
Record 39-19 29-27
R/Game 5.29 4.43 4.39
RA/Game 3.43 4.98 4.38
OPS 0.759 0.709 0.707
wOBA 0.325 0.307 0.306
ERA 3.14 4.71 4.06
FIP 3.76 4.88 3.96
WHIP 1.15 1.45 1.30
K/9 8.90 7.81 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.689 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.03 5.00 3.97
BP FIP 3.42 4.97 3.90
BP WHIP 1.09 1.53
BP K/9 8.93 8.90
BP Quality* 40.0 57.6 44.4
BP IP 204.7 214.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Zach Maxwell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0404 (Temp: 1.0033 | Wind: 1.0370)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 6.8 - CIN 5.0
Simulated Avg: ATL 6.8 - CIN 5.0
Win Probability: ATL 64.0% - CIN 36.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -178 / CIN +178
Avg Total Runs: 11.8
Over 9.5: 65.2%
Under 9.5: 34.8%
ATL -1.5: 51.3%
CIN +1.5: 48.7%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.067 / CIN 1.095
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.901 / CIN 1.297
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 3.5 - CIN 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.5 - CIN 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ATL 57.6% - CIN 42.4% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -136 / CIN +136
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -132 -178 +7.1%
CIN ML +112 +178 -11.2%
ATL -1.5 +126 -105 +7.1%
CIN +1.5 -152 +105 -11.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +12.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -17.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line) [+126]
Model: 51.3% | Market: 44.2% | Edge: 7.0%
Fair ML: -105 | Kelly: 3.16%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00672
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00673
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Adrian Houser Home: Ryan Feltner
ERA: 3.88 ERA: 4.97
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.48
K/9: 6.24 K/9: 7.45
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 3.57
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 4.56
IP: 52.7 IP: 20.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: SF (Adrian Houser)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF COL Lg Avg
Record 22-35 21-37
R/Game 3.68 4.09 4.39
RA/Game 4.67 5.38 4.38
OPS 0.684 0.690 0.707
wOBA 0.292 0.300 0.306
ERA 4.28 5.19 4.06
FIP 4.12 4.57 3.96
WHIP 1.35 1.48 1.30
K/9 8.04 7.37 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.394 0.377 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.59 4.52 3.97
BP FIP 4.08 3.93 3.90
BP WHIP 1.33 1.37
BP K/9 7.74 8.29
BP Quality* 47.4 46.7 44.4
BP IP 195.3 260.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9830 (Temp: 0.9911 | Wind: 0.9918)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.8 - COL 4.8
Simulated Avg: SF 4.8 - COL 4.8
Win Probability: SF 49.3% - COL 50.7%
Fair Moneyline: SF +103 / COL -103
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 11.0: 29.3%
Under 11.0: 62.5%
SF -1.5: 34.7%
COL +1.5: 65.3%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.979 / COL 1.257
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.068 / COL 1.052
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.9 - COL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.9 - COL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SF 55.2% - COL 44.8% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -123 / COL +123
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML -116 +103 -4.4%
COL ML -102 -103 +0.2%
SF -1.5 +130 +188 -8.8%
COL +1.5 -156 -188 +4.3%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -23.1%
U 11.0 -110 N/A +10.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 11.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00674
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Athletics
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Weathers Home: J.T. Ginn
ERA: 3.75 ERA: 4.59
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 9.12 K/9: 9.39
BB/9: 2.73 BB/9: 3.29
FIP: 4.19 FIP: 4.3
IP: 57.3 IP: 53.7
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY ATH Lg Avg
Record 35-22 27-30
R/Game 5.05 4.18 4.39
RA/Game 3.39 4.72 4.38
OPS 0.773 0.715 0.707
wOBA 0.330 0.309 0.306
ERA 3.12 4.35 4.06
FIP 3.34 4.60 3.96
WHIP 1.16 1.42 1.30
K/9 8.67 7.98 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.675 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.39 4.32 3.97
BP FIP 3.60 3.96 3.90
BP WHIP 1.28 1.38
BP K/9 8.43 8.32
BP Quality* 43.8 50.9 44.4
BP IP 191.0 220.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (33 pitches yesterday)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9751 (Temp: 0.9884 | Wind: 0.9866)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.4 - ATH 4.2
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.4 - ATH 4.2
Win Probability: NYY 60.3% - ATH 39.7%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -152 / ATH +152
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
NYY -1.5: 45.1%
NYY +1.5: 74.6%
ATH -1.5: 25.4%
ATH +1.5: 54.9%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.985 / ATH 1.029
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.986 / ATH 1.146
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.9 - ATH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.9 - ATH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYY 58.4% - ATH 41.6% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -140 / ATH +140
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryne Nelson Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 3.79 ERA: 3.22
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 7.6 K/9: 9.17
BB/9: 2.54 BB/9: 1.82
FIP: 3.99 FIP: 3.29
IP: 60.0 IP: 63.7
xERA: 3.93 xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SEA Lg Avg
Record 31-25 29-29
R/Game 4.66 4.26 4.39
RA/Game 4.43 3.83 4.38
OPS 0.718 0.708 0.707
wOBA 0.308 0.309 0.306
ERA 4.05 3.57 4.06
FIP 4.10 3.46 3.96
WHIP 1.24 1.23 1.30
K/9 7.29 8.58 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.549 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.06 3.18 3.97
BP FIP 3.87 3.29 3.90
BP WHIP 1.16 1.35
BP K/9 7.78 8.82
BP Quality* 46.3 42.1 44.4
BP IP 184.0 186.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandon Pfaadt (31 pitches yesterday)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0175 (Temp: 0.9804 | Wind: 1.0378)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 3.7 - SEA 4.1
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.7 - SEA 4.1
Win Probability: ARI 45.7% - SEA 54.3%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +119 / SEA -119
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.0: 49.7%
Under 7.0: 38.7%
ARI +1.5: 63.2%
SEA -1.5: 36.8%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 0.965 / SEA 0.787
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.043 / SEA 0.948
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 1.9 - SEA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.9 - SEA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 45.2% - SEA 54.8% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +121 / SEA -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +132 +119 +2.6%
SEA ML -156 -119 -6.6%
ARI +1.5 -178 -172 -0.8%
SEA -1.5 +146 +172 -3.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -2.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -13.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | May 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Roki Sasaki
ERA: 4.06 ERA: 4.58
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 10.56 K/9: 7.33
BB/9: 2.69 BB/9: 4.96
FIP: 2.76 FIP: 5.38
IP: 61.7 IP: 45.7
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 5.66
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.362
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI LAD Lg Avg
Record 29-28 37-20
R/Game 3.95 5.30 4.39
RA/Game 4.28 3.16 4.38
OPS 0.677 0.788 0.707
wOBA 0.293 0.336 0.306
ERA 3.98 3.10 4.06
FIP 3.33 3.31 3.96
WHIP 1.29 1.08 1.30
K/9 9.45 9.07 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.463 0.721 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 3.05 3.97
BP FIP 3.22 2.91 3.90
BP WHIP 1.28 1.12
BP K/9 9.89 9.49
BP Quality* 40.1 36.5 44.4
BP IP 199.3 177.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9849 (Temp: 0.9926 | Wind: 0.9922)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.1 - LAD 4.4
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.1 - LAD 4.3
Win Probability: PHI 46.9% - LAD 53.1%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +113 / LAD -113
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 45.2%
Under 8.5: 54.8%
PHI +1.5: 64.2%
LAD -1.5: 35.8%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.809 / LAD 1.300
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.903 / LAD 0.822
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.7 - LAD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.7 - LAD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: PHI 56.7% - LAD 43.3% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -131 / LAD +131
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML +108 +113 -1.2%
LAD ML -126 -113 -2.7%
PHI +1.5 -200 -179 -2.5%
LAD -1.5 +164 +179 -2.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================