2026-06-02
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-02
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jack Flaherty Home: Steven Matz
ERA: 5.04 ERA: 3.47
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 10.66 K/9: 6.98
BB/9: 3.93 BB/9: 1.85
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 3.7
IP: 52.7 IP: 44.3
xERA: 3.99 xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET TB Lg Avg
Record 23-38 36-21
R/Game 3.82 4.75 4.43
RA/Game 4.44 4.44 4.42
OPS 0.687 0.727 0.710
wOBA 0.301 0.314 0.307
ERA 4.12 3.90 4.10
FIP 3.84 4.14 3.98
WHIP 1.29 1.24 1.30
K/9 8.26 7.67 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.431 0.531 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 4.75 4.04
BP FIP 4.27 4.73 3.94
BP WHIP 1.40 1.37
BP K/9 8.33 7.86
BP Quality* 54.4 57.2 44.9
BP IP 232.3 231.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Beau Brieske (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Will Vest (40 pitches yesterday)
TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Martin (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 3.7 - TB 5.2
Simulated Avg: DET 3.7 - TB 5.2
Win Probability: DET 35.9% - TB 64.0%
Fair Moneyline: DET +178 / TB -178
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.0%
Under 8.5: 50.0%
DET +1.5: 52.2%
TB -1.5: 47.8%
Pitcher Adj: DET 1.032 / TB 0.861
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.212 / TB 1.274
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 1.7 - TB 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.7 - TB 2.7
F5 Win Prob: DET 33.9% - TB 66.1% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +195 / TB -195
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +118 +178 -9.9%
TB ML -138 -178 +6.1%
DET +1.5 -166 -109 -10.2%
TB -1.5 +138 +109 +5.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Randy Vásquez Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 3.66 ERA: 5.92
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 5.8 K/9: 9.14
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 2.73
FIP: 4.49 FIP: 4.4
IP: 60.3 IP: 56.7
xERA: 5.37 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD PHI Lg Avg
Record 32-26 30-29
R/Game 3.91 3.90 4.43
RA/Game 4.02 4.34 4.42
OPS 0.656 0.673 0.710
wOBA 0.285 0.291 0.307
ERA 3.92 4.05 4.10
FIP 3.74 3.37 3.98
WHIP 1.26 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.42 9.42 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.07 3.94 4.04
BP FIP 3.05 3.25 3.94
BP WHIP 1.18 1.29
BP K/9 9.33 9.79
BP Quality* 36.2 40.6 44.9
BP IP 234.3 207.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9931 (Temp: 1.0052 | Wind: 0.9879)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.1 - PHI 4.0
Simulated Avg: SD 4.1 - PHI 4.0
Win Probability: SD 50.4% - PHI 49.6%
Fair Moneyline: SD -102 / PHI +102
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 41.6%
Under 8.0: 47.6%
SD +1.5: 67.6%
PHI -1.5: 32.4%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.120 / PHI 1.143
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.806 / PHI 0.904
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.5 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.5 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SD 49.8% - PHI 50.2% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +101 / PHI -101
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +120 -102 +5.0%
PHI ML -142 +102 -9.1%
SD +1.5 -170 -209 +4.7%
PHI -1.5 +140 +209 -9.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Baz Home: Connelly Early
ERA: 4.75 ERA: 2.95
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 9.03 K/9: 8.41
BB/9: 3.56 BB/9: 3.25
FIP: 4.12 FIP: 4.23
IP: 64.3 IP: 61.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 2.35
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.24
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
Record 28-32 25-33
R/Game 4.58 3.98 4.43
RA/Game 5.22 4.07 4.42
OPS 0.715 0.696 0.710
wOBA 0.310 0.303 0.307
ERA 4.63 3.82 4.10
FIP 4.23 3.85 3.98
WHIP 1.43 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.01 8.66 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.71 3.13 4.04
BP FIP 3.88 3.64 3.94
BP WHIP 1.38 1.17
BP K/9 8.51 8.95
BP Quality* 47.2 40.5 44.9
BP IP 227.3 227.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9917 (Temp: 0.9977 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 3.9 - BOS 4.4
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.9 - BOS 4.4
Win Probability: BAL 45.1% - BOS 54.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +122 / BOS -122
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 43.5%
Under 8.5: 56.5%
BAL +1.5: 62.3%
BOS -1.5: 37.7%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.023 / BOS 0.793
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.051 / BOS 0.902
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.1 - BOS 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.1 - BOS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BAL 45.1% - BOS 54.9% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +122 / BOS -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +112 +122 -2.0%
BOS ML -132 -122 -2.0%
BAL +1.5 -178 -165 -1.7%
BOS -1.5 +146 +165 -3.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Lake Bachar Home: Miles Mikolas
ERA: 3.93 ERA: 5.05
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 9.51 K/9: 5.75
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 5.04
IP: 28.7 IP: 50.3
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 5.27
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Lake Bachar)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
Record 27-34 31-30
R/Game 4.21 5.36 4.43
RA/Game 4.62 5.41 4.42
OPS 0.696 0.743 0.710
wOBA 0.304 0.318 0.307
ERA 4.36 4.68 4.10
FIP 3.89 4.56 3.98
WHIP 1.27 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.60 7.90 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.458 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 4.67 4.04
BP FIP 3.59 4.62 3.94
BP WHIP 1.20 1.41
BP K/9 9.39 7.19
BP Quality* 42.4 55.5 44.9
BP IP 216.7 289.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: William Kempner (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paxton Schultz (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cole Henry (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0306 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 1.0260)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 5.2 - WSH 5.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 5.2 - WSH 5.5
Win Probability: MIA 47.3% - WSH 52.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +111 / WSH -111
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.0: 56.2%
Under 9.0: 34.6%
MIA -1.5: 33.6%
WSH +1.5: 66.4%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.021 / WSH 1.250
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.944 / WSH 1.236
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.9 - WSH 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.9 - WSH 3.1
F5 Win Prob: MIA 47.8% - WSH 52.2% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +109 / WSH -109
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML -106 +111 -4.2%
WSH ML -110 -111 +0.3%
MIA -1.5 +150 +197 -6.4%
WSH +1.5 -182 -197 +1.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +3.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -17.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 3.33 ERA: 2.46
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 9.47 K/9: 10.28
BB/9: 4.26 BB/9: 3.07
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 2.96
IP: 58.0 IP: 72.0
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE NYY Lg Avg
Record 34-27 36-23
R/Game 4.08 5.17 4.43
RA/Game 4.07 3.51 4.42
OPS 0.692 0.770 0.710
wOBA 0.301 0.330 0.307
ERA 3.74 3.20 4.10
FIP 3.78 3.44 3.98
WHIP 1.28 1.18 1.30
K/9 9.43 8.68 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.670 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.83 3.59 4.04
BP FIP 3.53 3.73 3.94
BP WHIP 1.31 1.31
BP K/9 10.57 8.34
BP Quality* 44.7 42.3 44.9
BP IP 207.0 195.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Codi Heuer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Will Dion (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0070 (Temp: 1.0015 | Wind: 1.0054)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.4 - NYY 5.0
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.4 - NYY 5.0
Win Probability: CLE 34.2% - NYY 65.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +192 / NYY -192
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.2%
Under 7.5: 44.8%
CLE +1.5: 50.9%
NYY -1.5: 49.1%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.895 / NYY 0.789
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.996 / NYY 0.942
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.8 - NYY 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.8 - NYY 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CLE 35.5% - NYY 64.5% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +181 / NYY -181
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +200 +192 +0.9%
NYY ML -245 -192 -5.2%
CLE +1.5 -105 -104 -0.3%
NYY -1.5 -114 +104 -4.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Noah Cameron Home: Andrew Abbott
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 3.26
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 7.64 K/9: 7.36
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 4.03
IP: 52.7 IP: 62.7
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 3.56
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC CIN Lg Avg
Record 23-37 30-29
R/Game 3.83 4.37 4.43
RA/Game 4.70 5.03 4.42
OPS 0.690 0.709 0.710
wOBA 0.299 0.307 0.307
ERA 4.50 4.80 4.10
FIP 4.33 5.03 3.98
WHIP 1.41 1.46 1.30
K/9 8.30 7.71 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.408 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.08 5.00 4.04
BP FIP 4.77 5.07 3.94
BP WHIP 1.57 1.53
BP K/9 8.47 8.74
BP Quality* 61.7 62.6 44.9
BP IP 202.0 228.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Eli Morgan (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Black (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brandon Leibrandt (99 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0430 (Temp: 1.0023 | Wind: 1.0406)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.6 - CIN 5.6
Simulated Avg: KC 4.6 - CIN 5.6
Win Probability: KC 41.3% - CIN 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: KC +142 / CIN -142
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.0: 52.0%
Under 9.0: 38.4%
KC +1.5: 56.3%
CIN -1.5: 43.7%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.939 / CIN 0.896
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.374 / CIN 1.394
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.1 - CIN 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.1 - CIN 2.6
F5 Win Prob: KC 41.9% - CIN 58.1% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +138 / CIN -138
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +104 +142 -7.7%
CIN ML -122 -142 +3.7%
KC +1.5 -205 -129 -10.9%
CIN -1.5 +168 +129 +6.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -0.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 3.43 ERA: 4.34
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 8.74 K/9: 7.57
BB/9: 2.07 BB/9: 2.87
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 4.0
IP: 69.0 IP: 72.0
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 4.73
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR ATL Lg Avg
Record 29-31 40-20
R/Game 4.07 5.27 4.43
RA/Game 4.18 3.45 4.42
OPS 0.690 0.761 0.710
wOBA 0.297 0.326 0.307
ERA 3.89 3.16 4.10
FIP 3.56 3.75 3.98
WHIP 1.28 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.11 8.92 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.684 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.90 3.02 4.04
BP FIP 3.53 3.41 3.94
BP WHIP 1.29 1.08
BP K/9 9.26 8.97
BP Quality* 43.5 36.8 44.9
BP IP 253.7 211.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yariel Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0266 (Temp: 0.9965 | Wind: 1.0302)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.0 - ATL 5.0
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.0 - ATL 5.0
Win Probability: TOR 40.1% - ATL 59.9%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +149 / ATL -149
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 51.3%
Under 8.0: 38.4%
TOR -1.5: 25.5%
ATL +1.5: 74.5%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.837 / ATL 1.059
Bullpen Adj: TOR 0.969 / ATL 0.820
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.5 - ATL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.5 - ATL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TOR 48.1% - ATL 51.9% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +108 / ATL -108
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +100 +149 -9.9%
ATL ML -118 -149 +5.8%
TOR -1.5 +176 +293 -10.8%
ATL +1.5 -210 -293 +6.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Davis Martin Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 3.44 ERA: 5.13
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.47 K/9: 9.45
BB/9: 2.66 BB/9: 4.05
FIP: 3.76 FIP: 3.91
IP: 67.7 IP: 33.3
xERA: 5.13 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
Record 32-28 28-33
R/Game 4.68 4.66 4.43
RA/Game 4.60 4.95 4.42
OPS 0.733 0.703 0.710
wOBA 0.313 0.306 0.307
ERA 4.28 4.56 4.10
FIP 4.13 4.01 3.98
WHIP 1.30 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.18 8.09 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 4.79 4.04
BP FIP 4.30 4.12 3.94
BP WHIP 1.36 1.51
BP K/9 8.27 7.65
BP Quality* 52.8 51.6 44.9
BP IP 261.3 220.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9925 (Temp: 1.0128 | Wind: 0.9800)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.1 - MIN 5.1
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.1 - MIN 5.1
Win Probability: CWS 49.5% - MIN 50.5%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +102 / MIN -102
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.0: 62.1%
Under 8.0: 28.5%
CWS -1.5: 35.3%
MIN +1.5: 64.7%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 1.015 / MIN 1.073
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.176 / MIN 1.149
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.8 - MIN 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.8 - MIN 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CWS 51.8% - MIN 48.2% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -108 / MIN +108
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -120 +102 -5.0%
MIN ML +102 -102 +1.0%
CWS -1.5 +140 +183 -6.4%
MIN +1.5 -170 -183 +1.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +9.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -23.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -164 | Kelly: 5.12%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00692
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Trevor McDonald Home: Kyle Harrison
ERA: 4.34 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 8.38 K/9: 9.89
BB/9: 1.86 BB/9: 3.22
FIP: 2.76 FIP: 3.23
IP: 29.0 IP: 51.7
xERA: 3.21 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: SF (Trevor McDonald)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF MIL Lg Avg
Record 23-37 36-21
R/Game 3.90 4.98 4.43
RA/Game 4.93 3.44 4.42
OPS 0.703 0.700 0.710
wOBA 0.300 0.303 0.307
ERA 4.54 3.15 4.10
FIP 4.14 3.15 3.98
WHIP 1.40 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.05 9.77 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.394 0.663 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 3.18 4.04
BP FIP 4.15 3.21 3.94
BP WHIP 1.39 1.26
BP K/9 7.63 9.16
BP Quality* 51.1 41.1 44.9
BP IP 208.7 229.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wilkin Ramos (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Buddy Kennedy (39 pitches yesterday)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jake Woodford (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: DL Hall (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0061 (Temp: 0.9951 | Wind: 1.0111)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.4 - MIL 5.6
Simulated Avg: SF 3.4 - MIL 5.6
Win Probability: SF 29.1% - MIL 70.9%
Fair Moneyline: SF +243 / MIL -243
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 7.5: 61.0%
Under 7.5: 39.0%
SF +1.5: 44.5%
MIL -1.5: 55.5%
Pitcher Adj: SF 1.088 / MIL 0.873
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.138 / MIL 0.915
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.9 - MIL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.9 - MIL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: SF 31.4% - MIL 68.6% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +218 / MIL -218
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +172 +243 -7.6%
MIL ML -205 -243 +3.7%
SF +1.5 -128 +124 -11.6%
MIL -1.5 +106 -124 +6.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +8.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -13.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.55%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00693
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Dustin May
ERA: 2.42 ERA: 4.84
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 8.88 K/9: 8.1
BB/9: 1.65 BB/9: 3.4
FIP: 3.14 FIP: 4.18
IP: 68.7 IP: 61.0
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 5.2
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX STL Lg Avg
Record 29-31 31-27
R/Game 3.98 4.28 4.43
RA/Game 3.85 4.47 4.42
OPS 0.696 0.696 0.710
wOBA 0.303 0.300 0.307
ERA 3.69 4.12 4.10
FIP 3.95 4.10 3.98
WHIP 1.21 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.60 7.61 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.39 4.17 4.04
BP FIP 3.97 4.02 3.94
BP WHIP 1.25 1.37
BP K/9 7.55 8.08
BP Quality* 49.9 47.7 44.9
BP IP 207.3 216.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Peyton Gray (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0159 (Temp: 1.0090 | Wind: 1.0069)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.4 - STL 3.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.4 - STL 3.8
Win Probability: TEX 55.6% - STL 44.4%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -125 / STL +125
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.0: 53.6%
Under 7.0: 35.4%
TEX -1.5: 38.6%
STL +1.5: 61.4%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.710 / STL 1.147
Bullpen Adj: TEX 1.111 / STL 1.062
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.5 - STL 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.5 - STL 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TEX 64.4% - STL 35.6% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -181 / STL +181
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -112 -125 +2.8%
STL ML -104 +125 -6.6%
TEX -1.5 +158 +159 -0.1%
STL +1.5 -192 -159 -4.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +1.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -17.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gage Jump Home: Jameson Taillon
ERA: 7.2 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 2.0 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 7.05
BB/9: 1.8 BB/9: 2.22
FIP: 1.7 FIP: 5.21
IP: 5.0 IP: 60.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Gage Jump)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CHC Lg Avg
Record 28-31 32-28
R/Game 4.27 4.73 4.43
RA/Game 4.85 4.42 4.42
OPS 0.724 0.723 0.710
wOBA 0.312 0.315 0.307
ERA 4.48 4.19 4.10
FIP 4.56 4.34 3.98
WHIP 1.43 1.24 1.30
K/9 8.01 8.08 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.442 0.532 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 3.46 4.04
BP FIP 3.94 4.17 3.94
BP WHIP 1.40 1.24
BP K/9 8.39 7.94
BP Quality* 48.5 43.4 44.9
BP IP 230.7 218.7
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Perkins (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0302 (Temp: 0.9887 | Wind: 1.0420)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.7 - CHC 6.0
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.7 - CHC 6.0
Win Probability: ATH 38.2% - CHC 61.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +162 / CHC -162
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
ATH -1.5: 25.6%
ATH +1.5: 52.3%
CHC -1.5: 47.7%
CHC +1.5: 74.4%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.225 / CHC 1.094
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.080 / CHC 0.967
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.8 - CHC 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.8 - CHC 3.5
F5 Win Prob: ATH 40.3% - CHC 59.7% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +148 / CHC -148
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Mike Burrows
ERA: 4.28 ERA: 4.4
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 8.93 K/9: 8.64
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 2.93
FIP: 3.15 FIP: 4.2
IP: 52.0 IP: 63.3
xERA: 3.66 xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Bubba Chandler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT HOU Lg Avg
Record 32-28 27-34
R/Game 5.02 4.44 4.43
RA/Game 4.50 4.98 4.42
OPS 0.733 0.727 0.710
wOBA 0.319 0.311 0.307
ERA 3.91 4.92 4.10
FIP 3.56 4.70 3.98
WHIP 1.25 1.43 1.30
K/9 9.07 8.42 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.550 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 5.16 4.04
BP FIP 3.89 5.00 3.94
BP WHIP 1.33 1.46
BP K/9 9.27 8.17
BP Quality* 44.7 54.8 44.9
BP IP 232.0 239.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0035 (Temp: 1.0102 | Wind: 0.9934)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.5 - HOU 4.2
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.5 - HOU 4.2
Win Probability: PIT 61.6% - HOU 38.4%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -160 / HOU +160
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 47.9%
Under 9.0: 42.2%
PIT -1.5: 46.7%
HOU +1.5: 53.3%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.881 / HOU 1.048
Bullpen Adj: PIT 0.996 / HOU 1.220
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.9 - HOU 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.9 - HOU 2.2
F5 Win Prob: PIT 60.9% - HOU 39.1% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -156 / HOU +156
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -104 -160 +10.6%
HOU ML -112 +160 -14.4%
PIT -1.5 +152 +114 +7.0%
HOU +1.5 -184 -114 -11.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -104 | Edge: 10.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00694
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Grayson Rodriguez
ERA: 4.44 ERA: 7.53
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.67
K/9: 5.67 K/9: 8.79
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 5.02
FIP: 5.21 FIP: 4.64
IP: 58.3 IP: 14.3
xERA: 5.81 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Grayson Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL LAA Lg Avg
Record 23-38 23-38
R/Game 4.26 4.31 4.43
RA/Game 5.61 5.16 4.42
OPS 0.702 0.701 0.710
wOBA 0.305 0.304 0.307
ERA 5.42 4.77 4.10
FIP 4.59 4.27 3.98
WHIP 1.50 1.46 1.30
K/9 7.32 8.88 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.377 0.418 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.98 5.22 4.04
BP FIP 4.07 4.81 3.94
BP WHIP 1.43 1.55
BP K/9 8.27 8.76
BP Quality* 50.9 60.8 44.9
BP IP 273.0 226.0
Bullpen Edge: COL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Pomeranz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9776 (Temp: 0.9954 | Wind: 0.9821)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 5.8 - LAA 5.3
Simulated Avg: COL 5.8 - LAA 5.3
Win Probability: COL 53.9% - LAA 46.1%
Fair Moneyline: COL -117 / LAA +117
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 8.5: 68.5%
Under 8.5: 31.5%
COL +1.5: 67.8%
LAA -1.5: 32.2%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.275 / LAA 1.433
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.134 / LAA 1.354
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 3.3 - LAA 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 3.3 - LAA 3.0
F5 Win Prob: COL 53.4% - LAA 46.6% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: COL -114 / LAA +114
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +130 -117 +10.4%
LAA ML -154 +117 -14.5%
COL +1.5 -164 -210 +5.7%
LAA -1.5 +136 +210 -10.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +16.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -20.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +130 | Edge: 10.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00695
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00696
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eric Lauer Home: Michael Soroka
ERA: 3.73 ERA: 4.12
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 8.29 K/9: 9.32
BB/9: 2.51 BB/9: 2.65
FIP: 4.32 FIP: 3.37
IP: 42.3 IP: 61.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 3.53
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Michael Soroka)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
Record 38-22 32-27
R/Game 5.25 4.54 4.43
RA/Game 3.15 4.36 4.42
OPS 0.787 0.704 0.710
wOBA 0.336 0.302 0.307
ERA 3.10 3.97 4.10
FIP 3.38 4.16 3.98
WHIP 1.06 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.09 7.21 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.718 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.19 3.86 4.04
BP FIP 3.11 3.77 3.94
BP WHIP 1.12 1.15
BP K/9 9.37 7.81
BP Quality* 37.9 45.1 44.9
BP IP 186.3 193.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0465 (Temp: 1.0386 | Wind: 1.0076)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.1 - ARI 4.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.1 - ARI 4.5
Win Probability: LAD 54.9% - ARI 45.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -122 / ARI +122
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.5: 46.9%
Under 9.5: 53.1%
LAD -1.5: 39.8%
ARI +1.5: 60.2%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.980 / ARI 0.881
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.844 / ARI 1.004
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - ARI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - ARI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 50.8% - ARI 49.2% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -103 / ARI +103
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -124 -122 -0.5%
ARI ML +106 +122 -3.4%
LAD -1.5 +125 +151 -4.7%
ARI +1.5 -150 -151 +0.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +0.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | June 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Logan Gilbert
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM SEA Lg Avg
Record 26-34 32-29
R/Game 4.02 4.23 4.43
RA/Game 4.25 3.72 4.42
OPS 0.650 0.713 0.710
wOBA 0.281 0.309 0.307
ERA 3.79 3.43 4.10
FIP 3.49 3.40 3.98
WHIP 1.29 1.18 1.30
K/9 9.34 8.61 8.45
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.558 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.17 3.05 4.04
BP FIP 3.37 3.25 3.94
BP WHIP 1.22 1.31
BP K/9 9.31 8.70
BP Quality* 41.3 38.2 44.9
BP IP 258.0 197.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Manaea (63 pitches yesterday)
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0197 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 1.0079)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.1 - SEA 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.1 - SEA 4.0
Win Probability: NYM 40.1% - SEA 59.9%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +149 / SEA -149
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 41.8%
Under 7.5: 58.2%
NYM +1.5: 59.4%
SEA -1.5: 40.6%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 1.000 / SEA 0.811
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.920 / SEA 0.851
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.7 - SEA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.7 - SEA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYM 39.6% - SEA 60.4% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +152 / SEA -152
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +130 +149 -3.4%
SEA ML -154 -149 -0.7%
NYM +1.5 -176 -146 -4.4%
SEA -1.5 +146 +146 -0.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -10.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +5.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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