2026-06-03
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-03
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Max Meyer Home: Andrew Alvarez
ERA: 4.13 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.64 K/9: 9.77
BB/9: 2.99 BB/9: 2.87
FIP: 3.87 FIP: 2.72
IP: 66.7 IP: 15.7
xERA: 4.8 xERA: 2.87
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.265
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
Record 28-34 31-31
R/Game 4.26 5.32 4.43
RA/Game 4.60 5.44 4.43
OPS 0.701 0.740 0.710
wOBA 0.305 0.316 0.307
ERA 4.33 4.72 4.11
FIP 3.84 4.63 3.98
WHIP 1.27 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.64 7.87 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 4.77 4.04
BP FIP 3.50 4.75 3.92
BP WHIP 1.19 1.41
BP K/9 9.44 7.15
BP Quality* 46.4 53.5 44.8
BP IP 223.0 296.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Gusto (40 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Miles Mikolas (92 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jakob Marsee, Liam Hicks
Jakob Marsee CF OPS: 0.841 (209 AB)
Liam Hicks C OPS: 0.692 (332 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.0% of full strength
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0580 (Temp: 1.0144 | Wind: 1.0429)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.6 - WSH 5.8
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.6 - WSH 5.8
Win Probability: MIA 39.2% - WSH 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +155 / WSH -155
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.5: 63.8%
Under 8.5: 36.2%
MIA -1.5: 26.2%
WSH +1.5: 73.8%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.037 / WSH 1.080
Bullpen Adj: MIA 1.036 / WSH 1.194
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.5 - WSH 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.5 - WSH 3.2
F5 Win Prob: MIA 39.2% - WSH 60.8% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +155 / WSH -155
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML -108 +155 -12.7%
WSH ML -108 -155 +8.9%
MIA -1.5 +155 +282 -13.0%
WSH +1.5 -188 -282 +8.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +11.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -16.1%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-188]
Model: 73.8% | Market: 65.3% | Edge: 8.5%
Fair ML: -282 | Kelly: 6.14%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00697
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00698
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Troy Melton Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 2.68 ERA: 3.56
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 6.85 K/9: 6.06
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 2.07
FIP: 4.44 FIP: 3.88
IP: 12.7 IP: 66.7
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET TB Lg Avg
Record 24-38 36-22
R/Game 3.89 4.67 4.43
RA/Game 4.37 4.50 4.43
OPS 0.693 0.724 0.710
wOBA 0.303 0.312 0.307
ERA 4.05 3.97 4.11
FIP 3.80 4.20 3.98
WHIP 1.28 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.29 7.64 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 4.71 4.04
BP FIP 4.21 4.76 3.92
BP WHIP 1.38 1.36
BP K/9 8.34 7.77
BP Quality* 52.3 55.7 44.8
BP IP 236.3 238.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enmanuel De Jesus (35 pitches yesterday)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones, Zach McKinstry, Wenceel Pérez
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Zach McKinstry 2B OPS: 0.771 (452 AB)
Wenceel Pérez RF OPS: 0.738 (344 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.9% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Taylor Walls, Hunter Feduccia
Taylor Walls SS OPS: 0.599 (282 AB)
Hunter Feduccia C OPS: 0.472 (88 AB)
Run Adjustment: 100.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 3.5 - TB 4.5
Simulated Avg: DET 3.5 - TB 4.5
Win Probability: DET 39.6% - TB 60.4%
Fair Moneyline: DET +153 / TB -153
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 40.6%
Under 8.0: 48.5%
DET +1.5: 57.2%
TB -1.5: 42.8%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.852 / TB 0.938
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.167 / TB 1.243
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 1.8 - TB 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.8 - TB 2.1
F5 Win Prob: DET 42.5% - TB 57.5% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +135 / TB -135
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +126 +153 -4.6%
TB ML -148 -153 +0.7%
DET +1.5 -170 -134 -5.8%
TB -1.5 +140 +134 +1.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -11.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -3.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Erick Fedde Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 5.47 ERA: 4.52
WHIP: 1.51 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 5.39 K/9: 8.71
BB/9: 4.2 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 5.34 FIP: 3.96
IP: 53.3 IP: 56.0
xERA: 5.41 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
Record 32-29 29-33
R/Game 4.67 4.68 4.43
RA/Game 4.62 4.94 4.43
OPS 0.730 0.703 0.710
wOBA 0.312 0.307 0.307
ERA 4.32 4.56 4.11
FIP 4.12 3.96 3.98
WHIP 1.31 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.12 8.19 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 4.72 4.04
BP FIP 4.27 4.06 3.92
BP WHIP 1.34 1.51
BP K/9 8.23 7.83
BP Quality* 52.3 51.0 44.8
BP IP 264.7 223.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Edgar Quero, Randal Grichuk, Derek Hill, Luisangel Acuña
Edgar Quero C OPS: 0.689 (365 AB)
Randal Grichuk RF OPS: 0.674 (272 AB)
Derek Hill RF OPS: 0.609 (134 AB)
Luisangel Acuña CF OPS: 0.567 (175 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.2% of full strength
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Alex Jackson, Kody Clemens
Alex Jackson C OPS: 0.763 (91 AB)
Kody Clemens 1B OPS: 0.715 (348 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9810 (Temp: 1.0160 | Wind: 0.9655)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.7 - MIN 5.7
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.7 - MIN 5.7
Win Probability: CWS 41.2% - MIN 58.8%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +143 / MIN -143
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.5: 63.7%
Under 8.5: 36.3%
CWS +1.5: 55.9%
MIN -1.5: 44.1%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 1.313 / MIN 1.009
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.167 / MIN 1.138
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.5 - MIN 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.5 - MIN 3.3
F5 Win Prob: CWS 39.4% - MIN 60.6% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +154 / MIN -154
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +130 +143 -2.3%
MIN ML -154 -143 -1.8%
CWS +1.5 -164 -127 -6.2%
MIN -1.5 +136 +127 +1.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +11.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -16.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00699
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Freddy Peralta Home: George Kirby
ERA: 2.99 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 10.01 K/9: 8.9
BB/9: 3.52 BB/9: 2.07
FIP: 3.61 FIP: 3.25
IP: 66.0 IP: 74.0
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM SEA Lg Avg
Record 26-35 33-29
R/Game 4.00 4.29 4.43
RA/Game 4.31 3.71 4.43
OPS 0.650 0.717 0.710
wOBA 0.281 0.311 0.307
ERA 3.85 3.43 4.11
FIP 3.55 3.41 3.98
WHIP 1.30 1.18 1.30
K/9 9.33 8.65 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.566 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.27 3.00 4.04
BP FIP 3.43 3.23 3.92
BP WHIP 1.24 1.29
BP K/9 9.36 8.67
BP Quality* 42.0 37.8 44.8
BP IP 264.3 201.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonah Tong (83 pitches yesterday)
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9724 (Temp: 0.9921 | Wind: 0.9802)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.1 - SEA 3.5
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.1 - SEA 3.5
Win Probability: NYM 45.6% - SEA 54.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +119 / SEA -119
Avg Total Runs: 6.6
Over 7.5: 35.3%
Under 7.5: 64.7%
NYM +1.5: 65.5%
SEA -1.5: 34.5%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.825 / SEA 0.894
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.938 / SEA 0.844
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.8 - SEA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.8 - SEA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYM 49.5% - SEA 50.5% (Tie: 20.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +102 / SEA -102
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +120 +119 +0.2%
SEA ML -142 -119 -4.3%
NYM +1.5 -184 -190 +0.8%
SEA -1.5 +152 +190 -5.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -17.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +12.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00700
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walker Buehler Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 4.91 ERA: 2.15
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 6.86 K/9: 9.91
BB/9: 3.98 BB/9: 1.91
FIP: 4.77 FIP: 2.21
IP: 51.7 IP: 79.3
xERA: 5.41 xERA: 3.02
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD PHI Lg Avg
Record 32-27 31-29
R/Game 3.88 3.88 4.43
RA/Game 4.00 4.30 4.43
OPS 0.656 0.675 0.710
wOBA 0.284 0.292 0.307
ERA 3.92 4.02 4.11
FIP 3.76 3.35 3.98
WHIP 1.26 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.38 9.47 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.07 3.87 4.04
BP FIP 3.07 3.22 3.92
BP WHIP 1.20 1.28
BP K/9 9.29 9.78
BP Quality* 41.0 40.2 44.8
BP IP 237.3 211.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0010 (Temp: 1.0141 | Wind: 0.9870)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 2.8 - PHI 4.5
Simulated Avg: SD 2.8 - PHI 4.5
Win Probability: SD 31.7% - PHI 68.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD +215 / PHI -215
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.5: 43.9%
Under 7.5: 56.1%
SD +1.5: 50.2%
PHI -1.5: 49.8%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.224 / PHI 0.603
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.915 / PHI 0.897
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 1.3 - PHI 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.3 - PHI 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SD 24.5% - PHI 75.5% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +308 / PHI -308
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +180 +215 -4.0%
PHI ML -215 -215 +0.0%
SD +1.5 -113 -101 -2.8%
PHI -1.5 -106 +101 -1.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Bassitt Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 4.24 ERA: 2.61
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 0.9
K/9: 8.08 K/9: 10.02
BB/9: 2.91 BB/9: 2.4
FIP: 3.84 FIP: 2.62
IP: 53.3 IP: 41.3
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
Record 29-32 25-34
R/Game 4.57 3.95 4.43
RA/Game 5.16 4.07 4.43
OPS 0.717 0.693 0.710
wOBA 0.310 0.302 0.307
ERA 4.59 3.83 4.11
FIP 4.19 3.85 3.98
WHIP 1.42 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.03 8.70 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.67 3.08 4.04
BP FIP 3.85 3.60 3.92
BP WHIP 1.37 1.17
BP K/9 8.56 9.00
BP Quality* 48.4 41.6 44.8
BP IP 229.3 231.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Samaniego (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0241 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 1.0203)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.1 - BOS 4.4
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.1 - BOS 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 46.5% - BOS 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +115 / BOS -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 9.0: 36.7%
Under 9.0: 53.3%
BAL +1.5: 63.3%
BOS -1.5: 36.6%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 0.986 / BOS 0.811
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.080 / BOS 0.929
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.2 - BOS 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.2 - BOS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BAL 46.7% - BOS 53.3% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +114 / BOS -114
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +128 +115 +2.6%
BOS ML -152 -115 -6.8%
BAL +1.5 -156 -173 +2.4%
BOS -1.5 +130 +173 -6.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -15.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gavin Williams Home: Gerrit Cole
ERA: 3.06 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 0.71
K/9: 9.66 K/9: 8.53
BB/9: 3.9 BB/9: 2.13
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 1.92
IP: 76.3 IP: 12.7
xERA: 4.3 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE NYY Lg Avg
Record 35-27 36-24
R/Game 4.16 5.15 4.43
RA/Game 4.06 3.60 4.43
OPS 0.696 0.767 0.710
wOBA 0.303 0.329 0.307
ERA 3.75 3.29 4.11
FIP 3.77 3.43 3.98
WHIP 1.28 1.18 1.30
K/9 9.45 8.74 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.658 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 3.69 4.04
BP FIP 3.46 3.66 3.92
BP WHIP 1.29 1.32
BP K/9 10.61 8.55
BP Quality* 43.9 45.3 44.8
BP IP 212.0 200.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9916 (Temp: 0.9982 | Wind: 0.9934)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 2.9 - NYY 5.0
Simulated Avg: CLE 2.9 - NYY 5.0
Win Probability: CLE 28.5% - NYY 71.5%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +251 / NYY -251
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.0: 49.6%
Under 7.0: 39.1%
CLE +1.5: 45.4%
NYY -1.5: 54.6%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.937 / NYY 0.500
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.980 / NYY 1.011
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.1 - NYY 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.1 - NYY 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CLE 21.5% - NYY 78.5% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +366 / NYY -366
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +126 +251 -15.7%
NYY ML -148 -251 +11.8%
CLE +1.5 -172 +120 -17.8%
NYY -1.5 +142 -120 +13.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -2.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -148 | Edge: 11.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00701
[HMC] New York Yankees -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +142 | Edge: 13.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00702
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Stephen Kolek Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 6.06 K/9: 12.71
BB/9: 2.37 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 2.87
IP: 31.0 IP: 64.3
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CIN Lg Avg
Record 23-38 31-29
R/Game 3.82 4.37 4.43
RA/Game 4.69 5.00 4.43
OPS 0.686 0.707 0.710
wOBA 0.298 0.306 0.307
ERA 4.47 4.76 4.11
FIP 4.35 5.00 3.98
WHIP 1.39 1.46 1.30
K/9 8.34 7.75 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.407 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.11 4.91 4.04
BP FIP 4.88 5.03 3.92
BP WHIP 1.58 1.52
BP K/9 8.50 8.82
BP Quality* 59.4 57.5 44.8
BP IP 204.3 232.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Black (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eli Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0035 (Temp: 1.0099 | Wind: 0.9937)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.0 - CIN 5.2
Simulated Avg: KC 4.0 - CIN 5.2
Win Probability: KC 38.0% - CIN 62.0%
Fair Moneyline: KC +163 / CIN -163
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 53.7%
Under 8.5: 46.3%
KC +1.5: 54.0%
CIN -1.5: 46.0%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.938 / CIN 0.804
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.326 / CIN 1.283
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 1.8 - CIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.8 - CIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: KC 38.1% - CIN 61.9% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +162 / CIN -162
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +134 +163 -4.8%
CIN ML -158 -163 +0.8%
KC +1.5 -156 -117 -7.0%
CIN -1.5 +130 +117 +2.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Patrick Corbin Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 4.19 ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.3 K/9: 9.23
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 4.14
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 4.46
IP: 49.3 IP: 57.0
xERA: 4.77 xERA: 4.55
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Patrick Corbin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR ATL Lg Avg
Record 29-32 41-20
R/Game 4.05 5.25 4.43
RA/Game 4.18 3.44 4.43
OPS 0.690 0.760 0.710
wOBA 0.297 0.326 0.307
ERA 3.90 3.16 4.11
FIP 3.56 3.74 3.98
WHIP 1.27 1.15 1.30
K/9 9.12 8.92 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.684 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 2.99 4.04
BP FIP 3.52 3.38 3.92
BP WHIP 1.28 1.08
BP K/9 9.22 9.00
BP Quality* 43.3 36.6 44.8
BP IP 255.7 214.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0129 (Temp: 1.0023 | Wind: 1.0107)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.0 - ATL 5.6
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.9 - ATL 5.6
Win Probability: TOR 34.4% - ATL 65.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +191 / ATL -191
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.1%
Under 8.5: 43.9%
TOR +1.5: 49.6%
ATL -1.5: 50.4%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 1.056 / ATL 1.064
Bullpen Adj: TOR 0.967 / ATL 0.817
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.5 - ATL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.5 - ATL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: TOR 38.6% - ATL 61.4% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +159 / ATL -159
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +120 +191 -11.0%
ATL ML -142 -191 +6.9%
TOR +1.5 -176 +101 -14.1%
ATL -1.5 +146 -101 +9.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line) [+146]
Model: 50.4% | Market: 40.7% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -101 | Kelly: 4.09%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00703
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Webb Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF MIL Lg Avg
Record 23-38 37-21
R/Game 3.89 5.03 4.43
RA/Game 4.98 3.43 4.43
OPS 0.705 0.704 0.710
wOBA 0.300 0.305 0.307
ERA 4.60 3.15 4.11
FIP 4.17 3.13 3.98
WHIP 1.42 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.03 9.85 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.388 0.669 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 3.22 4.04
BP FIP 4.18 3.19 3.92
BP WHIP 1.43 1.27
BP K/9 7.61 9.10
BP Quality* 50.5 41.2 44.8
BP IP 211.7 232.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tristan Beck (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9828 (Temp: 1.0019 | Wind: 0.9808)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.6 - MIL 4.6
Simulated Avg: SF 3.6 - MIL 4.7
Win Probability: SF 38.8% - MIL 61.2%
Fair Moneyline: SF +158 / MIL -158
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 43.0%
Under 8.0: 46.4%
SF +1.5: 56.2%
MIL -1.5: 43.8%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.788 / MIL 1.000
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.127 / MIL 0.920
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.1 - MIL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.1 - MIL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SF 48.1% - MIL 51.9% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +108 / MIL -108
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +122 +158 -6.3%
MIL ML -144 -158 +2.2%
SF +1.5 -170 -128 -6.8%
MIL -1.5 +140 +128 +2.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 4.1 ERA: 4.96
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 10.12 K/9: 6.45
BB/9: 3.73 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 4.51
IP: 61.3 IP: 58.0
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX STL Lg Avg
Record 30-31 31-28
R/Game 4.03 4.27 4.43
RA/Game 3.85 4.51 4.43
OPS 0.696 0.698 0.710
wOBA 0.303 0.301 0.307
ERA 3.70 4.16 4.11
FIP 3.93 4.05 3.98
WHIP 1.21 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.62 7.74 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 4.27 4.04
BP FIP 3.93 3.96 3.92
BP WHIP 1.24 1.37
BP K/9 7.57 8.21
BP Quality* 48.0 49.2 44.8
BP IP 210.3 219.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jalen Beeks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9930 (Temp: 1.0108 | Wind: 0.9824)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.3 - STL 4.3
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.3 - STL 4.3
Win Probability: TEX 49.2% - STL 50.8%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +103 / STL -103
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 46.8%
Under 8.0: 42.7%
TEX -1.5: 33.2%
STL +1.5: 66.8%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.968 / STL 1.107
Bullpen Adj: TEX 1.071 / STL 1.098
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.4 - STL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.4 - STL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TEX 52.2% - STL 47.8% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -109 / STL +109
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -104 +103 -1.8%
STL ML -112 -103 -2.0%
TEX -1.5 +164 +201 -4.7%
STL +1.5 -200 -201 +0.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jeffrey Springs Home: Colin Rea
ERA: 4.1 ERA: 4.14
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 7.42 K/9: 7.24
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 2.63
FIP: 4.59 FIP: 4.09
IP: 66.3 IP: 59.3
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Colin Rea)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CHC Lg Avg
Record 29-31 32-29
R/Game 4.23 4.67 4.43
RA/Game 4.78 4.38 4.43
OPS 0.720 0.717 0.710
wOBA 0.310 0.313 0.307
ERA 4.42 4.16 4.11
FIP 4.52 4.32 3.98
WHIP 1.41 1.23 1.30
K/9 7.98 8.08 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 3.42 4.04
BP FIP 3.94 4.13 3.92
BP WHIP 1.39 1.23
BP K/9 8.36 7.93
BP Quality* 46.8 43.0 44.8
BP IP 232.7 221.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9910 (Temp: 0.9952 | Wind: 0.9958)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.3 - CHC 5.2
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.3 - CHC 5.2
Win Probability: ATH 41.3% - CHC 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +142 / CHC -142
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
ATH -1.5: 27.0%
ATH +1.5: 57.0%
CHC -1.5: 43.0%
CHC +1.5: 73.0%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.062 / CHC 1.034
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.045 / CHC 0.960
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.5 - CHC 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.5 - CHC 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATH 43.6% - CHC 56.4% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +129 / CHC -129
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Paul Skenes Home: Spencer Arrighetti
ERA: 2.29 ERA: 4.43
WHIP: 0.92 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 10.35 K/9: 7.98
BB/9: 1.89 BB/9: 5.06
FIP: 2.34 FIP: 4.85
IP: 65.3 IP: 47.0
xERA: 2.65 xERA: 5.44
xwOBA: 0.255 xwOBA: 0.356
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT HOU Lg Avg
Record 33-28 27-35
R/Game 5.10 4.47 4.43
RA/Game 4.52 5.06 4.43
OPS 0.740 0.726 0.710
wOBA 0.321 0.311 0.307
ERA 3.92 4.98 4.11
FIP 3.57 4.75 3.98
WHIP 1.25 1.44 1.30
K/9 9.07 8.47 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.554 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.08 5.22 4.04
BP FIP 3.86 4.99 3.92
BP WHIP 1.33 1.47
BP K/9 9.34 8.33
BP Quality* 46.1 56.4 44.8
BP IP 236.0 243.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Wilber Dotel (41 pitches yesterday)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 27%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0008 (Temp: 1.0036 | Wind: 0.9973)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 6.1 - HOU 3.5
Simulated Avg: PIT 6.1 - HOU 3.5
Win Probability: PIT 72.9% - HOU 27.1%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -269 / HOU +269
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 56.6%
Under 8.0: 33.5%
PIT -1.5: 58.7%
HOU +1.5: 41.3%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.593 / HOU 1.205
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.029 / HOU 1.259
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 3.4 - HOU 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.4 - HOU 1.5
F5 Win Prob: PIT 78.9% - HOU 21.1% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -373 / HOU +373
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -162 -269 +11.1%
HOU ML +136 +269 -15.3%
PIT -1.5 +106 -142 +10.1%
HOU +1.5 -128 +142 -14.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -162 | Edge: 11.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00704
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +106 | Edge: 10.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00705
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 5.52 ERA: 2.44
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 7.62 K/9: 8.32
BB/9: 2.71 BB/9: 5.08
FIP: 4.6 FIP: 3.82
IP: 57.3 IP: 44.3
xERA: 4.61 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL LAA Lg Avg
Record 24-38 23-39
R/Game 4.32 4.27 4.43
RA/Game 5.55 5.21 4.43
OPS 0.708 0.700 0.710
wOBA 0.307 0.304 0.307
ERA 5.36 4.83 4.11
FIP 4.54 4.32 3.98
WHIP 1.49 1.47 1.30
K/9 7.33 8.86 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.388 0.410 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.91 5.10 4.04
BP FIP 4.03 4.76 3.92
BP WHIP 1.42 1.54
BP K/9 8.25 8.75
BP Quality* 50.4 57.1 44.8
BP IP 277.0 231.3
Bullpen Edge: COL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Aldegheri (89 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9766 (Temp: 0.9970 | Wind: 0.9796)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.1 - LAA 5.0
Simulated Avg: COL 4.1 - LAA 5.0
Win Probability: COL 41.7% - LAA 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: COL +140 / LAA -140
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.0%
Under 8.5: 48.0%
COL +1.5: 57.9%
LAA -1.5: 42.1%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.176 / LAA 0.795
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.125 / LAA 1.275
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 1.9 - LAA 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 1.9 - LAA 2.8
F5 Win Prob: COL 34.4% - LAA 65.6% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +191 / LAA -191
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +130 +140 -1.7%
LAA ML -154 -140 -2.4%
COL +1.5 -162 -137 -3.9%
LAA -1.5 +134 +137 -0.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shohei Ohtani Home: Zac Gallen
ERA: 2.34 ERA: 4.94
WHIP: 0.98 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 11.38 K/9: 7.57
BB/9: 1.99 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 1.98 FIP: 4.54
IP: 55.0 IP: 59.3
xERA: 2.55 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.25 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Shohei Ohtani)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
Record 39-22 32-28
R/Game 5.26 4.55 4.43
RA/Game 3.18 4.38 4.43
OPS 0.787 0.706 0.710
wOBA 0.335 0.303 0.307
ERA 3.13 4.00 4.11
FIP 3.42 4.15 3.98
WHIP 1.08 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.00 7.26 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.715 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.26 3.89 4.04
BP FIP 3.15 3.75 3.92
BP WHIP 1.15 1.16
BP K/9 9.30 7.87
BP Quality* 40.1 48.2 44.8
BP IP 190.7 196.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Will Klein (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 5.7 - ARI 3.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.7 - ARI 3.2
Win Probability: LAD 72.9% - ARI 27.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -268 / ARI +268
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 40.3%
Under 9.0: 49.9%
LAD -1.5: 57.9%
ARI +1.5: 42.1%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.552 / ARI 1.106
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.895 / ARI 1.076
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 3.2 - ARI 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.2 - ARI 1.4
F5 Win Prob: LAD 78.7% - ARI 21.3% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -369 / ARI +369
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -200 -268 +6.2%
ARI ML +168 +268 -10.2%
LAD -1.5 -113 -138 +4.9%
ARI +1.5 -106 +138 -9.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================