2026-06-06
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-06
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryce Miller Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 5.34 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 7.47 K/9: 6.9
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 2.81
FIP: 4.85 FIP: 4.54
IP: 21.0 IP: 61.0
xERA: 5.27 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: DET (Keider Montero)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA DET Lg Avg
Record 33-31 26-38
R/Game 4.22 3.98 4.45
RA/Game 3.81 4.31 4.44
OPS 0.717 0.700 0.712
wOBA 0.311 0.305 0.307
ERA 3.53 4.00 4.14
FIP 3.38 3.80 3.99
WHIP 1.19 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.71 8.27 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.546 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.07 4.36 4.06
BP FIP 3.21 4.21 3.92
BP WHIP 1.29 1.38
BP K/9 8.74 8.35
BP Quality* 40.9 49.2 44.9
BP IP 208.0 241.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rob Refsnyder, J.P. Crawford, Mitch Garver
Rob Refsnyder DH OPS: 0.838 (182 AB)
J.P. Crawford SS OPS: 0.722 (570 AB)
Mitch Garver C OPS: 0.640 (254 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.0% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones, Zach McKinstry
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Zach McKinstry 2B OPS: 0.771 (452 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.2 - DET 3.7
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.2 - DET 3.7
Win Probability: SEA 55.3% - DET 44.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -124 / DET +124
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 9.0: 29.2%
Under 9.0: 61.1%
SEA -1.5: 38.0%
DET +1.5: 62.0%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 1.028 / DET 1.085
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.911 / DET 1.096
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.3 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.4 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 54.3% - DET 45.7% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -119 / DET +119
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -134 -124 -2.0%
DET ML +114 +124 -2.0%
SEA -1.5 +126 +163 -6.3%
DET +1.5 -152 -163 +1.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -23.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +8.7%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.8%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.59%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00727
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luinder Avila Home: Joe Ryan
ERA: 4.44 ERA: 3.34
WHIP: 1.71 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 8.54 K/9: 10.17
BB/9: 5.47 BB/9: 1.95
FIP: 4.01 FIP: 3.14
IP: 26.3 IP: 70.3
xERA: 2.09 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.226 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
Record 25-39 30-35
R/Game 3.89 4.63 4.45
RA/Game 4.67 5.00 4.44
OPS 0.688 0.704 0.712
wOBA 0.299 0.306 0.307
ERA 4.46 4.61 4.14
FIP 4.37 3.98 3.99
WHIP 1.39 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.34 8.13 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.417 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.95 4.80 4.06
BP FIP 4.80 4.11 3.92
BP WHIP 1.56 1.52
BP K/9 8.59 7.84
BP Quality* 56.8 56.1 44.9
BP IP 212.7 236.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Eric Orze (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.8 - MIN 5.5
Simulated Avg: KC 3.8 - MIN 5.5
Win Probability: KC 33.6% - MIN 66.4%
Fair Moneyline: KC +198 / MIN -198
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 53.7%
Under 8.5: 46.3%
KC +1.5: 49.1%
MIN -1.5: 50.9%
Pitcher Adj: KC 1.075 / MIN 0.795
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.265 / MIN 1.249
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 1.7 - MIN 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.7 - MIN 2.8
F5 Win Prob: KC 31.0% - MIN 69.0% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +222 / MIN -222
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +130 +198 -9.9%
MIN ML -154 -198 +5.8%
KC +1.5 -160 +104 -12.4%
MIN -1.5 +132 -104 +7.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Minnesota Twins -1.5 (Run Line) [+132]
Model: 50.9% | Market: 43.1% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -104 | Kelly: 3.41%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00720
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Lodolo Home: Matthew Liberatore
ERA: 3.6 ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 8.7 K/9: 7.59
BB/9: 2.13 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 4.1
IP: 27.7 IP: 62.0
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
Record 31-31 33-28
R/Game 4.31 4.38 4.45
RA/Game 5.08 4.46 4.44
OPS 0.706 0.705 0.712
wOBA 0.305 0.304 0.307
ERA 4.81 4.13 4.14
FIP 4.99 4.00 3.99
WHIP 1.47 1.36 1.30
K/9 7.89 7.73 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.425 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.11 4.19 4.06
BP FIP 5.07 3.90 3.92
BP WHIP 1.56 1.37
BP K/9 8.86 8.26
BP Quality* 57.2 47.2 44.9
BP IP 239.7 227.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zach McCambley (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hunter Dobbins (78 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Nathaniel Lowe
Tyler Stephenson C OPS: 0.737 (299 AB)
Will Benson RF OPS: 0.708 (230 AB)
Nathaniel Lowe DH OPS: 0.688 (540 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.0% of full strength
STL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman
Lars Nootbaar LF OPS: 0.686 (509 AB)
Nolan Gorman 3B OPS: 0.666 (351 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.2 - STL 4.9
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.2 - STL 4.9
Win Probability: CIN 43.3% - STL 56.7%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +131 / STL -131
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.5: 42.2%
Under 9.5: 57.8%
CIN +1.5: 59.4%
STL -1.5: 40.6%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 1.045 / STL 1.064
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.274 / STL 1.051
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.4 - STL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.4 - STL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CIN 48.2% - STL 51.8% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +107 / STL -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +108 +131 -4.8%
STL ML -126 -131 +1.0%
CIN +1.5 -194 -146 -6.6%
STL -1.5 +160 +146 +2.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -10.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Landen Roupp Home: Ben Brown
ERA: 3.94 ERA: 5.35
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 9.13 K/9: 10.1
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 3.43 FIP: 3.68
IP: 64.0 IP: 51.7
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 4.55
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF CHC Lg Avg
Record 26-38 33-31
R/Game 4.19 4.67 4.45
RA/Game 4.94 4.62 4.44
OPS 0.726 0.723 0.712
wOBA 0.308 0.315 0.307
ERA 4.56 4.39 4.14
FIP 4.22 4.49 3.99
WHIP 1.41 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.97 8.04 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.425 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.29 3.69 4.06
BP FIP 4.33 4.32 3.92
BP WHIP 1.45 1.25
BP K/9 7.53 7.83
BP Quality* 50.5 52.4 44.9
BP IP 222.3 234.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (45 pitches yesterday)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 4.7 - CHC 5.0
Simulated Avg: SF 4.7 - CHC 5.0
Win Probability: SF 47.5% - CHC 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +111 / CHC -111
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 7.5: 67.4%
Under 7.5: 32.6%
SF +1.5: 62.8%
CHC -1.5: 37.2%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.928 / CHC 1.063
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.125 / CHC 1.167
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.5 - CHC 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.5 - CHC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SF 50.3% - CHC 49.6% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -101 / CHC +101
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +124 +111 +2.8%
CHC ML -146 -111 -6.8%
SF +1.5 -170 -169 -0.2%
CHC -1.5 +140 +169 -4.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +15.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -19.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00721
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Bradish Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
Record 31-33 30-34
R/Game 4.70 4.06 4.45
RA/Game 5.12 4.33 4.44
OPS 0.721 0.693 0.712
wOBA 0.312 0.299 0.307
ERA 4.58 4.04 4.14
FIP 4.17 3.65 3.99
WHIP 1.41 1.28 1.30
K/9 7.95 8.96 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.68 4.00 4.06
BP FIP 3.79 3.59 3.92
BP WHIP 1.36 1.28
BP K/9 8.54 9.04
BP Quality* 51.0 45.6 44.9
BP IP 240.3 269.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yariel Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.6 - TOR 3.7
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.6 - TOR 3.7
Win Probability: BAL 59.8% - TOR 40.2%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -149 / TOR +149
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 43.5%
Under 8.0: 45.6%
BAL -1.5: 42.7%
TOR +1.5: 57.3%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 0.713 / TOR 1.000
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.136 / TOR 1.016
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.6 - TOR 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.6 - TOR 1.6
F5 Win Prob: BAL 67.6% - TOR 32.4% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -209 / TOR +209
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -108 -149 +7.8%
TOR ML -108 +149 -11.7%
BAL -1.5 +152 +134 +3.0%
TOR +1.5 -184 -134 -7.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Eisert Home: Andrew Painter
ERA: 4.37 ERA: 5.74
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 9.55 K/9: 7.26
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 2.87
FIP: 4.26 FIP: 4.64
IP: 12.7 IP: 53.3
xERA: 4.1 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Brandon Eisert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS PHI Lg Avg
Record 33-30 34-29
R/Game 4.75 3.97 4.45
RA/Game 4.60 4.29 4.44
OPS 0.737 0.682 0.712
wOBA 0.316 0.295 0.307
ERA 4.32 4.00 4.14
FIP 4.10 3.41 3.99
WHIP 1.31 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.12 9.44 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 3.87 4.06
BP FIP 4.19 3.24 3.92
BP WHIP 1.33 1.29
BP K/9 8.28 9.84
BP Quality* 47.1 43.3 44.9
BP IP 272.7 218.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brad Keller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0026 (Temp: 1.0329 | Wind: 0.9707)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.4 - PHI 4.4
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.4 - PHI 4.4
Win Probability: CWS 58.7% - PHI 41.3%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -142 / PHI +142
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.5: 48.4%
Under 9.5: 51.6%
CWS +1.5: 73.1%
PHI -1.5: 26.9%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 1.048 / PHI 1.227
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.049 / PHI 0.964
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 3.3 - PHI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.3 - PHI 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CWS 62.8% - PHI 37.2% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -169 / PHI +169
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +116 -142 +12.4%
PHI ML -134 +142 -16.0%
CWS +1.5 -164 -272 +11.0%
PHI -1.5 +136 +272 -15.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -0.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Chicago White Sox (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +116 | Edge: 12.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00722
[HMC] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -164 | Edge: 11.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00723
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Littell Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 4.08 ERA: 4.07
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 6.05 K/9: 7.7
BB/9: 1.85 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 5.06 FIP: 4.22
IP: 59.3 IP: 72.3
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH ARI Lg Avg
Record 32-32 33-30
R/Game 5.39 4.40 4.45
RA/Game 5.34 4.54 4.44
OPS 0.743 0.699 0.712
wOBA 0.318 0.300 0.307
ERA 4.65 4.16 4.14
FIP 4.61 4.25 3.99
WHIP 1.38 1.28 1.30
K/9 7.90 7.20 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.73 4.09 4.06
BP FIP 4.72 3.85 3.92
BP WHIP 1.43 1.22
BP K/9 7.22 7.93
BP Quality* 54.9 46.8 44.9
BP IP 304.3 206.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Paxton Schultz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Henry (36 pitches yesterday)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Philip Abner (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kade Strowd (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.5 - ARI 5.2
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.5 - ARI 5.2
Win Probability: WSH 52.5% - ARI 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -111 / ARI +111
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 9.0: 57.1%
Under 9.0: 33.8%
WSH +1.5: 66.5%
ARI -1.5: 33.5%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.104 / ARI 1.035
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.223 / ARI 1.042
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.1 - ARI 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.1 - ARI 2.7
F5 Win Prob: WSH 55.4% - ARI 44.6% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -124 / ARI +124
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +136 -111 +10.2%
ARI ML -162 +111 -14.4%
WSH +1.5 -156 -198 +5.5%
ARI -1.5 +130 +198 -9.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +4.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -18.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +136 | Edge: 10.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00724
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Tatsuya Imai
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
Record 30-33 29-36
R/Game 4.22 4.52 4.45
RA/Game 4.81 5.06 4.44
OPS 0.720 0.731 0.712
wOBA 0.310 0.312 0.307
ERA 4.47 4.97 4.14
FIP 4.49 4.74 3.99
WHIP 1.40 1.44 1.30
K/9 8.11 8.51 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 5.14 4.06
BP FIP 3.86 4.87 3.92
BP WHIP 1.38 1.45
BP K/9 8.46 8.62
BP Quality* 52.3 58.4 44.9
BP IP 245.7 255.7
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Barnett (64 pitches yesterday)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 37%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 1.0128 | Wind: 0.9905)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 5.3 - HOU 4.9
Simulated Avg: ATH 5.3 - HOU 4.9
Win Probability: ATH 53.1% - HOU 46.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATH -113 / HOU +113
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
ATH -1.5: 38.7%
ATH +1.5: 67.5%
HOU -1.5: 32.5%
HOU +1.5: 61.3%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.000 / HOU 1.254
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.165 / HOU 1.301
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.9 - HOU 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.9 - HOU 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATH 55.7% - HOU 44.3% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -126 / HOU +126
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Spencer Strider
ERA: 2.73 ERA: 4.33
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 9.37 K/9: 9.79
BB/9: 2.74 BB/9: 3.88
FIP: 2.72 FIP: 4.37
IP: 74.7 IP: 31.0
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 4.93
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ATL Lg Avg
Record 34-30 43-21
R/Game 5.12 5.23 4.45
RA/Game 4.59 3.48 4.44
OPS 0.738 0.758 0.712
wOBA 0.321 0.325 0.307
ERA 4.05 3.22 4.14
FIP 3.57 3.72 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.13 8.87 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.550 0.678 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 3.05 4.06
BP FIP 3.88 3.38 3.92
BP WHIP 1.35 1.09
BP K/9 9.45 8.95
BP Quality* 46.8 41.4 44.9
BP IP 246.7 224.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandan Bidois (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9972 (Temp: 1.0246 | Wind: 0.9733)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.2 - ATL 4.6
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.3 - ATL 4.6
Win Probability: PIT 55.7% - ATL 44.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -126 / ATL +126
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 59.2%
Under 8.0: 31.2%
PIT -1.5: 40.8%
ATL +1.5: 59.2%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.718 / ATL 1.100
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.042 / ATL 0.922
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 3.2 - ATL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.1 - ATL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: PIT 65.3% - ATL 34.7% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -188 / ATL +188
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -104 -126 +4.7%
ATL ML -112 +126 -8.5%
PIT -1.5 +162 +145 +2.6%
ATL +1.5 -196 -145 -7.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane McClanahan Home: Lake Bachar
ERA: 2.45 ERA: 3.92
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 8.67 K/9: 9.53
BB/9: 3.11 BB/9: 3.78
FIP: 2.68 FIP: 4.09
IP: 55.0 IP: 31.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.48
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB MIA Lg Avg
Record 37-23 29-35
R/Game 4.65 4.19 4.45
RA/Game 4.47 4.56 4.44
OPS 0.723 0.697 0.712
wOBA 0.312 0.304 0.307
ERA 3.95 4.31 4.14
FIP 4.16 3.83 3.99
WHIP 1.24 1.27 1.30
K/9 7.69 8.60 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 3.61 4.06
BP FIP 4.65 3.55 3.92
BP WHIP 1.35 1.21
BP K/9 7.84 9.35
BP Quality* 50.3 42.2 44.9
BP IP 245.7 232.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Phillips (82 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0377 (Temp: 1.0160 | Wind: 1.0213)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.3 - MIA 3.4
Simulated Avg: TB 4.3 - MIA 3.4
Win Probability: TB 59.6% - MIA 40.4%
Fair Moneyline: TB -147 / MIA +147
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.0: 37.5%
Under 8.0: 51.5%
TB -1.5: 41.9%
MIA +1.5: 58.1%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.625 / MIA 1.011
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.120 / MIA 0.940
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.5 - MIA 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.5 - MIA 1.4
F5 Win Prob: TB 70.0% - MIA 30.0% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -234 / MIA +234
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -136 -147 +1.9%
MIA ML +116 +147 -5.9%
TB -1.5 +125 +138 -2.5%
MIA +1.5 -150 -138 -1.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -14.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tanner Bibee Home: Jack Leiter
ERA: 4.36 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 7.94 K/9: 9.21
BB/9: 2.74 BB/9: 3.92
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 3.98
IP: 69.0 IP: 66.3
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jack Leiter)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE TEX Lg Avg
Record 36-29 31-32
R/Game 4.09 4.00 4.45
RA/Game 4.02 3.84 4.44
OPS 0.692 0.693 0.712
wOBA 0.301 0.301 0.307
ERA 3.72 3.70 4.14
FIP 3.77 3.88 3.99
WHIP 1.25 1.22 1.30
K/9 9.40 8.67 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.68 3.27 4.06
BP FIP 3.38 3.84 3.92
BP WHIP 1.25 1.22
BP K/9 10.60 7.69
BP Quality* 41.5 42.7 44.9
BP IP 220.0 217.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 21%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9997 (Temp: 1.0141 | Wind: 0.9858)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.2 - TEX 4.2
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.2 - TEX 4.2
Win Probability: CLE 49.6% - TEX 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +102 / TEX -102
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.9%
Under 7.5: 45.1%
CLE -1.5: 33.6%
TEX +1.5: 66.4%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.993 / TEX 1.004
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.924 / TEX 0.951
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.4 - TEX 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.4 - TEX 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CLE 50.8% - TEX 49.2% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -103 / TEX +103
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +100 +102 -0.4%
TEX ML -118 -102 -3.7%
CLE -1.5 +164 +198 -4.3%
TEX +1.5 -200 -198 -0.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Will Warren
ERA: 3.26 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 8.67 K/9: 9.59
BB/9: 2.4 BB/9: 3.28
FIP: 3.04 FIP: 3.71
IP: 58.7 IP: 64.3
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.278 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
Record 27-35 37-26
R/Game 4.00 5.05 4.45
RA/Game 4.06 3.60 4.44
OPS 0.698 0.761 0.712
wOBA 0.303 0.326 0.307
ERA 3.83 3.30 4.14
FIP 3.87 3.48 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.60 8.69 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.493 0.650 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.99 3.56 4.06
BP FIP 3.60 3.55 3.92
BP WHIP 1.18 1.28
BP K/9 8.94 8.59
BP Quality* 38.5 44.0 44.9
BP IP 240.7 209.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 39%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9898 (Temp: 1.0266 | Wind: 0.9642)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.8 - NYY 4.1
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.8 - NYY 4.1
Win Probability: BOS 46.9% - NYY 53.1%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +113 / NYY -113
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.5: 39.1%
Under 8.5: 60.9%
BOS +1.5: 64.6%
NYY -1.5: 35.4%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.758 / NYY 0.988
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.857 / NYY 0.980
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.1 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.1 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 50.6% - NYY 49.4% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -102 / NYY +102
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +110 +113 -0.7%
NYY ML -130 -113 -3.5%
BOS +1.5 -205 -182 -2.6%
NYY -1.5 +168 +182 -1.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -13.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +8.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.49%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00725
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL COL Lg Avg
Record 38-23 24-40
R/Game 5.08 4.36 4.45
RA/Game 3.59 5.69 4.44
OPS 0.703 0.708 0.712
wOBA 0.305 0.308 0.307
ERA 3.30 5.48 4.14
FIP 3.20 4.50 3.99
WHIP 1.21 1.50 1.30
K/9 9.70 7.40 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.654 0.381 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 5.04 4.06
BP FIP 3.21 3.99 3.92
BP WHIP 1.28 1.44
BP K/9 9.00 8.32
BP Quality* 40.3 52.3 44.9
BP IP 248.0 285.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (35 pitches yesterday)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 28 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), crosswind (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0056 (Temp: 1.0136 | Wind: 0.9921)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 6.2 - COL 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIL 6.1 - COL 4.2
Win Probability: MIL 66.5% - COL 33.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -198 / COL +198
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 10.5: 44.5%
Under 10.5: 55.5%
MIL -1.5: 52.7%
COL +1.5: 47.3%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.767 / COL 1.000
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.898 / COL 1.165
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.2 - COL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.2 - COL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 65.9% - COL 34.1% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -194 / COL +194
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -255 -198 -5.4%
COL ML +210 +198 +1.3%
MIL -1.5 -156 -111 -8.2%
COL +1.5 +130 +111 +3.8%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -7.9%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jack Kochanowicz Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 6.27 ERA: 2.61
WHIP: 1.66 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 6.07 K/9: 9.96
BB/9: 4.79 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 5.38 FIP: 3.04
IP: 63.7 IP: 69.3
xERA: 5.88 xERA: 2.74
xwOBA: 0.368 xwOBA: 0.259
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA LAD Lg Avg
Record 24-40 41-23
R/Game 4.31 5.17 4.45
RA/Game 5.12 3.08 4.44
OPS 0.700 0.783 0.712
wOBA 0.304 0.334 0.307
ERA 4.78 3.03 4.14
FIP 4.28 3.37 3.99
WHIP 1.45 1.06 1.30
K/9 8.88 9.07 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.422 0.721 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.14 3.27 4.06
BP FIP 4.75 3.20 3.92
BP WHIP 1.54 1.15
BP K/9 8.76 9.45
BP Quality* 55.6 38.8 44.9
BP IP 236.3 198.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9833 (Temp: 0.9923 | Wind: 0.9909)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.0 - LAD 6.7
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.1 - LAD 6.7
Win Probability: LAA 19.3% - LAD 80.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +418 / LAD -418
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 57.5%
Under 8.5: 42.5%
LAA +1.5: 32.3%
LAD -1.5: 67.7%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 1.396 / LAD 0.683
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.238 / LAD 0.864
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.6 - LAD 3.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.6 - LAD 3.8
F5 Win Prob: LAA 18.6% - LAD 81.4% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +438 / LAD -438
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +290 +418 -6.4%
LAD ML -360 -418 +2.4%
LAA +1.5 +132 +210 -10.8%
LAD -1.5 -160 -210 +6.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nolan McLean Home: Griffin Canning
ERA: 2.8 ERA: 4.35
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 10.61 K/9: 8.34
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 4.26
FIP: 3.02 FIP: 4.27
IP: 66.3 IP: 27.7
xERA: 3.51 xERA: 4.7
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM SD Lg Avg
Record 28-35 32-30
R/Game 4.06 3.79 4.45
RA/Game 4.19 4.03 4.44
OPS 0.654 0.645 0.712
wOBA 0.283 0.281 0.307
ERA 3.77 3.95 4.14
FIP 3.54 3.78 3.99
WHIP 1.28 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.26 8.43 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.19 3.18 4.06
BP FIP 3.40 3.12 3.92
BP WHIP 1.21 1.21
BP K/9 9.31 9.35
BP Quality* 39.9 41.6 44.9
BP IP 270.7 246.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Morgan (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9805 (Temp: 0.9905 | Wind: 0.9899)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.6 - SD 3.0
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.6 - SD 3.0
Win Probability: NYM 57.4% - SD 42.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -135 / SD +135
Avg Total Runs: 6.6
Over 7.5: 34.7%
Under 7.5: 65.3%
NYM -1.5: 37.8%
SD +1.5: 62.2%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.758 / SD 0.993
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.889 / SD 0.927
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.1 - SD 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.1 - SD 1.5
F5 Win Prob: NYM 61.9% - SD 38.1% (Tie: 19.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -162 / SD +162
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -124 -135 +2.0%
SD ML +106 +135 -5.9%
NYM -1.5 +134 +165 -4.9%
SD +1.5 -162 -165 +0.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -17.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +12.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00726