2026-06-07
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-07
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mason Montgomery Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 5.59 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.62 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 12.27 K/9: 7.59
BB/9: 5.2 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 3.8 FIP: 3.98
IP: 24.7 IP: 78.7
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 4.73
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ATL Lg Avg
Record 34-31 44-21
R/Game 5.09 5.25 4.44
RA/Game 4.62 3.48 4.44
OPS 0.737 0.758 0.711
wOBA 0.320 0.325 0.307
ERA 4.09 3.21 4.13
FIP 3.57 3.69 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.17 1.30
K/9 9.11 8.89 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.545 0.680 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 3.00 4.04
BP FIP 3.87 3.34 3.92
BP WHIP 1.34 1.09
BP K/9 9.41 9.07
BP Quality* 45.0 42.5 44.8
BP IP 249.7 228.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Wynns, Michael Harris II, Eli White
Austin Wynns C OPS: 0.865 (103 AB)
Michael Harris II CF OPS: 0.677 (611 AB)
Eli White CF OPS: 0.676 (256 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 5.1 - ATL 5.5
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.1 - ATL 5.6
Win Probability: PIT 45.9% - ATL 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +118 / ATL -118
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 8.5: 66.0%
Under 8.5: 34.1%
PIT +1.5: 60.2%
ATL -1.5: 39.8%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 1.136 / ATL 1.047
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.004 / ATL 0.949
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 3.0 - ATL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.0 - ATL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: PIT 47.2% - ATL 52.8% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +112 / ATL -112
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +132 +118 +2.8%
ATL ML -156 -118 -6.9%
PIT +1.5 -154 -151 -0.4%
ATL -1.5 +128 +151 -4.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +13.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -18.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00728
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Gilbert Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 3.88 ERA: 5.85
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.65 K/9: 9.28
BB/9: 4.24 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 4.34
IP: 51.0 IP: 61.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Tyler Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS PHI Lg Avg
Record 34-30 34-30
R/Game 4.77 3.95 4.44
RA/Game 4.58 4.31 4.44
OPS 0.740 0.682 0.711
wOBA 0.316 0.295 0.307
ERA 4.30 4.03 4.13
FIP 4.11 3.43 3.99
WHIP 1.30 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.23 9.45 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.30 3.79 4.04
BP FIP 4.22 3.19 3.92
BP WHIP 1.33 1.27
BP K/9 8.48 9.89
BP Quality* 48.7 39.7 44.8
BP IP 280.3 223.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sean Burke (90 pitches yesterday)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Edgar Quero, Randal Grichuk, Derek Hill, Luisangel Acuña
Edgar Quero C OPS: 0.689 (365 AB)
Randal Grichuk RF OPS: 0.674 (272 AB)
Derek Hill RF OPS: 0.609 (134 AB)
Luisangel Acuña CF OPS: 0.567 (175 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.2% of full strength
PHI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Edmundo Sosa, J.T. Realmuto
Edmundo Sosa 2B OPS: 0.776 (243 AB)
J.T. Realmuto C OPS: 0.699 (502 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.8 - PHI 4.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.8 - PHI 4.0
Win Probability: CWS 57.6% - PHI 42.4%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -136 / PHI +136
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 39.2%
Under 9.0: 50.9%
CWS +1.5: 73.0%
PHI -1.5: 27.0%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 0.951 / PHI 1.124
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.087 / PHI 0.886
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 3.0 - PHI 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.0 - PHI 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CWS 64.0% - PHI 36.0% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -178 / PHI +178
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +144 -136 +16.6%
PHI ML -172 +136 -20.8%
CWS +1.5 -142 -271 +14.3%
PHI -1.5 +118 +271 -18.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -13.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -1.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Chicago White Sox (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +144 | Edge: 16.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00729
[HMC] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -142 | Edge: 14.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00730
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 3.26 ERA: 2.56
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 8.67 K/9: 10.19
BB/9: 2.4 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 3.04 FIP: 2.98
IP: 58.7 IP: 76.3
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.278 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
Record 27-35 37-26
R/Game 4.00 5.05 4.44
RA/Game 4.06 3.60 4.44
OPS 0.698 0.761 0.711
wOBA 0.303 0.326 0.307
ERA 3.83 3.30 4.13
FIP 3.87 3.48 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.60 8.69 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.493 0.650 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.99 3.56 4.04
BP FIP 3.60 3.55 3.92
BP WHIP 1.18 1.28
BP K/9 8.94 8.59
BP Quality* 38.5 41.0 44.8
BP IP 240.7 209.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Andruw Monasterio, Carlos Narváez
Andruw Monasterio SS OPS: 0.756 (126 AB)
Carlos Narváez C OPS: 0.725 (403 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.8% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon 3B OPS: 0.693 (509 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.2 - NYY 4.1
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.2 - NYY 4.1
Win Probability: BOS 39.2% - NYY 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +155 / NYY -155
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 8.0: 32.4%
Under 8.0: 57.3%
BOS +1.5: 58.2%
NYY -1.5: 41.8%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.760 / NYY 0.791
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.859 / NYY 0.915
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 1.7 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.7 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 41.1% - NYY 58.9% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +143 / NYY -143
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +130 +155 -4.3%
NYY ML -154 -155 +0.2%
BOS +1.5 -166 -139 -4.2%
NYY -1.5 +138 +139 -0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -20.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Baz Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 4.67 ERA: 3.5
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 8.98 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 3.53 BB/9: 2.09
FIP: 4.05 FIP: 3.17
IP: 71.3 IP: 75.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
Record 31-34 31-34
R/Game 4.69 4.09 4.44
RA/Game 5.14 4.32 4.44
OPS 0.720 0.698 0.711
wOBA 0.312 0.300 0.307
ERA 4.61 4.04 4.13
FIP 4.17 3.68 3.99
WHIP 1.42 1.27 1.30
K/9 7.93 9.01 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.64 4.02 4.04
BP FIP 3.76 3.65 3.92
BP WHIP 1.35 1.27
BP K/9 8.51 9.11
BP Quality* 49.2 48.8 44.8
BP IP 244.3 277.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keegan Akin (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (73 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Daulton Varsho, Tyler Heineman, Nathan Lukes
Daulton Varsho CF OPS: 0.832 (248 AB)
Tyler Heineman C OPS: 0.777 (149 AB)
Nathan Lukes RF OPS: 0.730 (388 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.3 - TOR 4.0
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.3 - TOR 4.0
Win Probability: BAL 53.0% - TOR 47.0%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -113 / TOR +113
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 43.7%
Under 8.0: 45.4%
BAL +1.5: 69.6%
TOR -1.5: 30.4%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.004 / TOR 0.836
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.098 / TOR 1.089
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.2 - TOR 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.2 - TOR 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BAL 51.1% - TOR 48.9% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -105 / TOR +105
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +116 -113 +6.7%
TOR ML -136 +113 -10.7%
BAL +1.5 -184 -229 +4.8%
TOR -1.5 +152 +229 -9.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luis Castillo Home: Jack Flaherty
ERA: 4.11 ERA: 4.89
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 8.37 K/9: 10.66
BB/9: 2.66 BB/9: 3.93
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 3.88
IP: 55.3 IP: 57.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA DET Lg Avg
Record 34-31 26-39
R/Game 4.22 3.92 4.44
RA/Game 3.75 4.31 4.44
OPS 0.717 0.697 0.711
wOBA 0.311 0.304 0.307
ERA 3.47 4.00 4.13
FIP 3.37 3.79 3.99
WHIP 1.18 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.75 8.25 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.553 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.03 4.29 4.04
BP FIP 3.23 4.15 3.92
BP WHIP 1.29 1.37
BP K/9 8.70 8.44
BP Quality* 37.9 48.5 44.8
BP IP 211.0 245.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ty Madden (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rob Refsnyder, J.P. Crawford, Mitch Garver
Rob Refsnyder DH OPS: 0.838 (182 AB)
J.P. Crawford SS OPS: 0.722 (570 AB)
Mitch Garver C OPS: 0.640 (254 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.0% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0511 (Temp: 1.0131 | Wind: 1.0375)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.2 - DET 3.6
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.2 - DET 3.6
Win Probability: SEA 55.9% - DET 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -127 / DET +127
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 38.4%
Under 8.5: 61.6%
SEA -1.5: 38.4%
DET +1.5: 61.7%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.957 / DET 1.010
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.846 / DET 1.083
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.3 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.3 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 53.8% - DET 46.2% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -117 / DET +117
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -108 -127 +4.0%
DET ML -108 +127 -7.8%
SEA -1.5 +152 +161 -1.3%
DET +1.5 -184 -161 -3.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -14.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.2%
Fair ML: -160 | Kelly: 4.85%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00731
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Griffin Jax Home: Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 4.34 ERA: 5.07
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 12.49 K/9: 6.92
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 3.01 FIP: 4.08
IP: 34.0 IP: 82.3
xERA: 3.26 xERA: 4.64
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: TB (Griffin Jax)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB MIA Lg Avg
Record 37-24 30-35
R/Game 4.62 4.18 4.44
RA/Game 4.46 4.54 4.44
OPS 0.720 0.699 0.711
wOBA 0.311 0.304 0.307
ERA 3.96 4.29 4.13
FIP 4.14 3.81 3.99
WHIP 1.24 1.26 1.30
K/9 7.76 8.64 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 3.63 4.04
BP FIP 4.61 3.53 3.92
BP WHIP 1.34 1.22
BP K/9 7.93 9.42
BP Quality* 49.8 45.3 44.8
BP IP 248.7 238.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Connor Norby, Christopher Morel
Connor Norby 1B OPS: 0.689 (311 AB)
Christopher Morel 1B OPS: 0.685 (278 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0122 (Temp: 1.0191 | Wind: 0.9933)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.5 - MIA 3.7
Simulated Avg: TB 4.5 - MIA 3.7
Win Probability: TB 58.4% - MIA 41.6%
Fair Moneyline: TB -141 / MIA +141
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 53.6%
Under 7.5: 46.4%
TB -1.5: 41.4%
MIA +1.5: 58.6%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.831 / MIA 1.095
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.112 / MIA 1.011
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.6 - MIA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.6 - MIA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: TB 64.6% - MIA 35.4% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -183 / MIA +183
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -116 -141 +4.7%
MIA ML -102 +141 -8.9%
TB -1.5 +150 +142 +1.4%
MIA +1.5 -182 -142 -5.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +1.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gage Jump Home: Mike Burrows
ERA: 3.75 ERA: 4.53
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.5 K/9: 8.55
BB/9: 1.5 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 1.93 FIP: 4.37
IP: 12.0 IP: 68.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Gage Jump)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
Record 30-34 30-36
R/Game 4.19 4.65 4.44
RA/Game 4.94 5.02 4.44
OPS 0.717 0.739 0.711
wOBA 0.309 0.316 0.307
ERA 4.61 4.92 4.13
FIP 4.54 4.69 3.99
WHIP 1.42 1.44 1.30
K/9 8.14 8.58 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.425 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 5.06 4.04
BP FIP 3.83 4.83 3.92
BP WHIP 1.39 1.44
BP K/9 8.51 8.66
BP Quality* 49.5 56.4 44.8
BP IP 249.7 259.7
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Suarez (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (44 pitches yesterday)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alimber Santa (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jose Altuve, Taylor Trammell
Jose Altuve 2B OPS: 0.771 (588 AB)
Taylor Trammell CF OPS: 0.629 (117 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9899 (Temp: 1.0180 | Wind: 0.9724)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.7 - HOU 4.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.7 - HOU 4.8
Win Probability: ATH 48.0% - HOU 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +108 / HOU -108
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
ATH -1.5: 32.9%
ATH +1.5: 63.6%
HOU -1.5: 36.4%
HOU +1.5: 67.2%
Pitcher Adj: ATH 1.033 / HOU 1.064
Bullpen Adj: ATH 1.105 / HOU 1.259
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.4 - HOU 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.4 - HOU 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATH 47.4% - HOU 52.6% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +111 / HOU -111
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Noah Cameron Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 5.26
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.74 K/9: 9.61
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 3.89
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 3.58
IP: 59.7 IP: 39.3
xERA: 4.07 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
Record 26-39 30-36
R/Game 3.88 4.59 4.44
RA/Game 4.63 4.97 4.44
OPS 0.687 0.703 0.711
wOBA 0.298 0.306 0.307
ERA 4.42 4.58 4.13
FIP 4.37 3.99 3.99
WHIP 1.38 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.32 8.10 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.419 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.90 4.81 4.04
BP FIP 4.81 4.10 3.92
BP WHIP 1.55 1.51
BP K/9 8.60 7.78
BP Quality* 58.1 56.0 44.8
BP IP 216.7 239.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eric Orze (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9958 (Temp: 1.0231 | Wind: 0.9733)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.3 - MIN 5.1
Simulated Avg: KC 4.3 - MIN 5.1
Win Probability: KC 42.5% - MIN 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +135 / MIN -135
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.5%
Under 8.5: 45.5%
KC -1.5: 28.0%
MIN +1.5: 72.0%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.923 / MIN 1.030
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.297 / MIN 1.250
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.2 - MIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.2 - MIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 46.7% - MIN 53.3% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +114 / MIN -114
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML -110 +135 -9.9%
MIN ML -106 -135 +6.1%
KC -1.5 +142 +257 -13.3%
MIN +1.5 -172 -257 +8.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Minnesota Twins +1.5 (Run Line) [-172]
Model: 72.0% | Market: 63.2% | Edge: 8.8%
Fair ML: -257 | Kelly: 5.97%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00732
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Rhett Lowder Home: Michael McGreevy
ERA: 5.4 ERA: 3.93
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 6.34 K/9: 5.63
BB/9: 4.23 BB/9: 2.03
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 4.13
IP: 38.3 IP: 66.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Rhett Lowder)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
Record 31-32 34-28
R/Game 4.32 4.40 4.44
RA/Game 5.10 4.47 4.44
OPS 0.706 0.708 0.711
wOBA 0.305 0.305 0.307
ERA 4.83 4.11 4.13
FIP 5.00 4.01 3.99
WHIP 1.47 1.36 1.30
K/9 7.89 7.70 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.425 0.493 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.12 4.11 4.04
BP FIP 5.07 3.88 3.92
BP WHIP 1.55 1.36
BP K/9 8.90 8.17
BP Quality* 55.6 45.3 44.8
BP IP 242.7 232.3
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Eugenio Suárez, Noelvi Marte
Eugenio Suárez DH OPS: 0.824 (588 AB)
Noelvi Marte RF OPS: 0.748 (339 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.4% of full strength
STL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Masyn Winn, Pedro Pagés
Masyn Winn SS OPS: 0.673 (491 AB)
Pedro Pagés C OPS: 0.635 (361 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9997 (Temp: 1.0235 | Wind: 0.9767)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.0 - STL 5.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.0 - STL 5.0
Win Probability: CIN 40.8% - STL 59.2%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +145 / STL -145
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.5: 40.9%
Under 9.5: 59.1%
CIN +1.5: 56.9%
STL -1.5: 43.1%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 1.072 / STL 1.034
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.241 / STL 1.011
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - STL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - STL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CIN 45.2% - STL 54.8% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +121 / STL -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +118 +145 -5.1%
STL ML -138 -145 +1.2%
CIN +1.5 -182 -132 -7.6%
STL -1.5 +150 +132 +3.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -11.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +6.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 3.47 ERA: 3.14
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 0.95
K/9: 9.43 K/9: 10.06
BB/9: 4.33 BB/9: 1.89
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 3.68
IP: 62.0 IP: 64.7
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 3.36
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE TEX Lg Avg
Record 37-29 31-33
R/Game 4.12 3.94 4.44
RA/Game 3.95 3.88 4.44
OPS 0.693 0.688 0.711
wOBA 0.301 0.300 0.307
ERA 3.67 3.72 4.13
FIP 3.76 3.93 3.99
WHIP 1.24 1.22 1.30
K/9 9.32 8.59 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.519 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 3.20 4.04
BP FIP 3.37 3.82 3.92
BP WHIP 1.25 1.21
BP K/9 10.59 7.62
BP Quality* 41.4 42.3 44.8
BP IP 221.0 222.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cal Quantrill (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9931 (Temp: 1.0191 | Wind: 0.9745)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.7 - TEX 3.9
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.7 - TEX 3.9
Win Probability: CLE 48.4% - TEX 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +107 / TEX -107
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 46.6%
Under 7.5: 53.4%
CLE +1.5: 66.7%
TEX -1.5: 33.3%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.905 / TEX 0.831
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.924 / TEX 0.944
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.0 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.0 - TEX 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CLE 47.5% - TEX 52.4% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +110 / TEX -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +120 +107 +3.0%
TEX ML -142 -107 -7.1%
CLE +1.5 -184 -200 +1.9%
TEX -1.5 +152 +200 -6.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Drohan Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 2.87 ERA: 5.86
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 9.48 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 2.87 BB/9: 2.3
FIP: 2.78 FIP: 4.53
IP: 31.3 IP: 48.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL COL Lg Avg
Record 39-23 24-41
R/Game 5.11 4.31 4.44
RA/Game 3.55 5.71 4.44
OPS 0.711 0.705 0.711
wOBA 0.308 0.306 0.307
ERA 3.25 5.50 4.13
FIP 3.18 4.60 3.99
WHIP 1.21 1.51 1.30
K/9 9.73 7.41 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.661 0.374 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.31 5.09 4.04
BP FIP 3.20 4.08 3.92
BP WHIP 1.28 1.45
BP K/9 9.04 8.36
BP Quality* 40.2 57.4 44.8
BP IP 250.0 291.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Brennan Bernardino (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blas Castaño (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: TJ Shook (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0676 (Temp: 1.0334 | Wind: 1.0330)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 7.6 - COL 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIL 7.6 - COL 4.2
Win Probability: MIL 75.8% - COL 24.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -313 / COL +313
Avg Total Runs: 11.8
Over 11.5: 48.0%
Under 11.5: 52.0%
MIL -1.5: 64.2%
COL +1.5: 35.8%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.682 / COL 1.214
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.897 / COL 1.281
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 4.2 - COL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 4.2 - COL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIL 77.5% - COL 22.5% (Tie: 11.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -344 / COL +344
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -176 -313 +12.0%
COL ML +148 +313 -16.1%
MIL -1.5 -120 -179 +9.6%
COL +1.5 +100 +179 -14.2%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -4.4%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -0.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [-120]
Model: 64.2% | Market: 54.5% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -179 | Kelly: 5.30%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00733
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -176 | Edge: 12.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00734
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cade Cavalli Home: Michael Soroka
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 8.48 K/9: 9.31
BB/9: 2.98 BB/9: 2.6
FIP: 3.61 FIP: 3.37
IP: 64.7 IP: 67.0
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 3.53
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ARI Lg Avg
Record 33-32 33-31
R/Game 5.40 4.34 4.44
RA/Game 5.28 4.56 4.44
OPS 0.746 0.692 0.711
wOBA 0.319 0.297 0.307
ERA 4.59 4.19 4.13
FIP 4.58 4.28 3.99
WHIP 1.37 1.28 1.30
K/9 7.86 7.21 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.478 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.67 4.13 4.04
BP FIP 4.70 3.86 3.92
BP WHIP 1.41 1.24
BP K/9 7.15 7.95
BP Quality* 51.4 44.2 44.8
BP IP 308.3 209.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.9 - ARI 4.6
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.9 - ARI 4.6
Win Probability: WSH 53.0% - ARI 47.0%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -113 / ARI +113
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 55.5%
Under 8.0: 34.4%
WSH +1.5: 68.2%
ARI -1.5: 31.8%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 0.943 / ARI 0.878
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.147 / ARI 0.987
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.6 - ARI 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.6 - ARI 2.3
F5 Win Prob: WSH 55.1% - ARI 44.9% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -123 / ARI +123
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +112 -113 +5.8%
ARI ML -132 +113 -9.9%
WSH +1.5 -196 -215 +2.0%
ARI -1.5 +162 +215 -6.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Emmet Sheehan
ERA: 3.69 ERA: 3.35
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 8.83 K/9: 10.51
BB/9: 4.28 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 3.59 FIP: 3.23
IP: 76.0 IP: 58.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Emmet Sheehan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA LAD Lg Avg
Record 24-41 42-23
R/Game 4.28 5.23 4.44
RA/Game 5.18 3.06 4.44
OPS 0.696 0.782 0.711
wOBA 0.302 0.334 0.307
ERA 4.84 3.01 4.13
FIP 4.30 3.37 3.99
WHIP 1.45 1.05 1.30
K/9 8.90 9.01 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.413 0.727 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.05 3.30 4.04
BP FIP 4.72 3.26 3.92
BP WHIP 1.52 1.15
BP K/9 8.78 9.45
BP Quality* 58.0 39.2 44.8
BP IP 244.0 199.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brent Suter (55 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (34 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9927 (Temp: 1.0057 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.3 - LAD 5.5
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.3 - LAD 5.5
Win Probability: LAA 28.7% - LAD 71.3%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +248 / LAD -248
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 48.5%
Under 8.5: 51.5%
LAA +1.5: 44.6%
LAD -1.5: 55.4%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.913 / LAD 0.770
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.295 / LAD 0.875
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 1.7 - LAD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.7 - LAD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: LAA 34.9% - LAD 65.1% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +187 / LAD -187
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +180 +248 -7.0%
LAD ML -215 -248 +3.0%
LAA +1.5 -118 +124 -9.5%
LAD -1.5 -102 -124 +4.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Huascar Brazobán Home: Randy Vásquez
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 3.66
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.02 K/9: 5.81
BB/9: 3.83 BB/9: 3.15
FIP: 3.77 FIP: 4.5
IP: 32.0 IP: 65.3
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 5.37
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Huascar Brazobán)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM SD Lg Avg
Record 28-36 33-30
R/Game 4.03 3.78 4.44
RA/Game 4.17 4.00 4.44
OPS 0.653 0.644 0.711
wOBA 0.282 0.280 0.307
ERA 3.77 3.92 4.13
FIP 3.55 3.78 3.99
WHIP 1.28 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.22 8.45 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.23 3.16 4.04
BP FIP 3.44 3.15 3.92
BP WHIP 1.21 1.20
BP K/9 9.28 9.35
BP Quality* 40.2 41.6 44.8
BP IP 272.7 250.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Austin Warren (34 pitches yesterday)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9772 (Temp: 0.9993 | Wind: 0.9779)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.8 - SD 3.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.8 - SD 3.2
Win Probability: NYM 56.5% - SD 43.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -130 / SD +130
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.5: 40.7%
Under 7.5: 59.3%
NYM -1.5: 37.7%
SD +1.5: 62.3%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.905 / SD 1.112
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.897 / SD 0.929
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.3 - SD 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.3 - SD 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYM 59.9% - SD 40.1% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -150 / SD +150
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -108 -130 +4.6%
SD ML -108 +130 -8.4%
NYM -1.5 +150 +165 -2.3%
SD +1.5 -182 -165 -2.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -11.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor McDonald Home: Jameson Taillon
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.21 K/9: 7.11
BB/9: 2.38 BB/9: 2.2
FIP: 3.22 FIP: 5.17
IP: 34.0 IP: 66.7
xERA: 3.21 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: SF (Trevor McDonald)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF CHC Lg Avg
Record 26-39 34-31
R/Game 4.15 4.65 4.44
RA/Game 4.91 4.58 4.44
OPS 0.722 0.724 0.711
wOBA 0.307 0.315 0.307
ERA 4.52 4.35 4.13
FIP 4.25 4.47 3.99
WHIP 1.41 1.24 1.30
K/9 7.97 8.08 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.424 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 3.69 4.04
BP FIP 4.36 4.32 3.92
BP WHIP 1.46 1.25
BP K/9 7.54 7.91
BP Quality* 52.1 49.4 44.8
BP IP 225.7 239.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0273 (Temp: 0.9975 | Wind: 1.0299)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 4.7 - CHC 5.0
Simulated Avg: SF 4.7 - CHC 5.0
Win Probability: SF 47.5% - CHC 52.4%
Fair Moneyline: SF +110 / CHC -110
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 58.0%
Under 8.0: 32.2%
SF +1.5: 62.8%
CHC -1.5: 37.2%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.856 / CHC 1.080
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.163 / CHC 1.103
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.6 - CHC 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.6 - CHC 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SF 53.8% - CHC 46.2% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -116 / CHC +116
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +108 +110 -0.5%
CHC ML -126 -110 -3.3%
SF +1.5 -205 -169 -4.4%
CHC -1.5 +168 +169 -0.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -20.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================