2026-06-08
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-08
Games: 8 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Emerson Hancock Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BAL Lg Avg
Record 34-32 31-35
R/Game 4.21 4.68 4.44
RA/Game 3.77 5.15 4.44
OPS 0.718 0.722 0.712
wOBA 0.312 0.312 0.307
ERA 3.50 4.58 4.13
FIP 3.39 4.19 3.99
WHIP 1.18 1.42 1.30
K/9 8.72 7.90 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.550 0.456 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 4.63 4.06
BP FIP 3.27 3.79 3.92
BP WHIP 1.31 1.35
BP K/9 8.66 8.50
BP Quality* 43.1 49.3 44.8
BP IP 214.0 246.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.4 - BAL 5.2
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.4 - BAL 5.2
Win Probability: SEA 41.9% - BAL 58.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +139 / BAL -139
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 46.9%
Under 9.0: 43.4%
SEA -1.5: 27.6%
BAL +1.5: 72.4%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 1.150 / BAL 1.000
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.962 / BAL 1.100
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - BAL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.4 - BAL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 39.3% - BAL 60.7% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +155 / BAL -155
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -130 +139 -14.7%
BAL ML +110 -139 +10.5%
SEA -1.5 +126 +262 -16.6%
BAL +1.5 -152 -262 +12.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +110 | Edge: 10.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00735
[HMC] Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -152 | Edge: 12.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00736
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Connelly Early Home: Ian Seymour
ERA: 3.26 ERA: 3.68
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.55 K/9: 10.09
BB/9: 3.12 BB/9: 3.04
FIP: 4.4 FIP: 3.02
IP: 66.3 IP: 31.0
xERA: 2.35 xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: 0.24 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: TB (Ian Seymour)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
Record 27-36 37-25
R/Game 3.95 4.56 4.44
RA/Game 4.10 4.45 4.44
OPS 0.694 0.715 0.712
wOBA 0.302 0.310 0.307
ERA 3.88 3.95 4.13
FIP 3.87 4.13 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.64 7.77 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 4.61 4.06
BP FIP 3.69 4.61 3.92
BP WHIP 1.19 1.35
BP K/9 9.02 7.97
BP Quality* 41.0 53.1 44.8
BP IP 242.3 251.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Matz (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.7 - TB 3.9
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.7 - TB 3.8
Win Probability: BOS 47.6% - TB 52.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +110 / TB -110
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 45.8%
Under 7.5: 54.2%
BOS -1.5: 30.3%
TB +1.5: 69.7%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.823 / TB 0.848
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.915 / TB 1.185
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 1.8 - TB 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.8 - TB 2.0
F5 Win Prob: BOS 45.2% - TB 54.8% (Tie: 19.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +121 / TB -121
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -112 +110 -5.2%
TB ML -104 -110 +1.4%
BOS -1.5 +150 +230 -9.7%
TB +1.5 -182 -230 +5.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 3.11
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 9.59 K/9: 9.69
BB/9: 3.28 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 3.71 FIP: 3.99
IP: 64.3 IP: 81.7
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CLE Lg Avg
Record 38-26 37-30
R/Game 5.06 4.06 4.44
RA/Game 3.56 4.04 4.44
OPS 0.763 0.690 0.712
wOBA 0.327 0.300 0.307
ERA 3.27 3.77 4.13
FIP 3.45 3.82 3.99
WHIP 1.16 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.65 9.31 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.655 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 3.74 4.06
BP FIP 3.53 3.43 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.27
BP K/9 8.49 10.49
BP Quality* 40.7 42.1 44.8
BP IP 213.0 224.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Will Dion (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.5 - CLE 3.8
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.5 - CLE 3.8
Win Probability: NYY 56.8% - CLE 43.2%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -132 / CLE +132
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 44.3%
Under 8.0: 45.2%
NYY +1.5: 73.2%
CLE -1.5: 26.8%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.991 / CLE 0.939
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.908 / CLE 0.940
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.5 - CLE 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - CLE 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYY 56.0% - CLE 44.0% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -127 / CLE +127
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML +106 -132 +8.3%
CLE ML -124 +132 -12.2%
NYY +1.5 -205 -273 +6.0%
CLE -1.5 +168 +273 -10.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Patrick Corbin
ERA: 2.11 ERA: 4.27
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 9.93 K/9: 7.13
BB/9: 1.89 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 2.18 FIP: 4.13
IP: 86.3 IP: 54.3
xERA: 3.02 xERA: 4.77
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI TOR Lg Avg
Record 35-30 32-34
R/Game 4.03 4.12 4.44
RA/Game 4.32 4.32 4.44
OPS 0.687 0.700 0.712
wOBA 0.297 0.301 0.307
ERA 4.05 4.04 4.13
FIP 3.41 3.69 3.99
WHIP 1.29 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.48 9.02 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 3.96 4.06
BP FIP 3.14 3.63 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.27
BP K/9 9.96 9.14
BP Quality* 42.2 48.5 44.8
BP IP 227.7 281.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Seabold (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - TOR 3.1
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - TOR 3.1
Win Probability: PHI 62.0% - TOR 38.0%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -163 / TOR +163
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.5: 43.6%
Under 7.5: 56.4%
PHI -1.5: 43.8%
TOR +1.5: 56.2%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.595 / TOR 1.063
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.942 / TOR 1.083
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.4 - TOR 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.4 - TOR 1.4
F5 Win Prob: PHI 69.1% - TOR 30.9% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -224 / TOR +224
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -176 -163 -1.8%
TOR ML +148 +163 -2.3%
PHI -1.5 -105 +128 -7.4%
TOR +1.5 -114 -128 +2.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Spencer Arrighetti Home: Grayson Rodriguez
ERA: 4.47 ERA: 9.5
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.89
K/9: 7.96 K/9: 8.5
BB/9: 5.01 BB/9: 5.5
FIP: 4.84 FIP: 5.93
IP: 51.0 IP: 18.0
xERA: 5.44 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.356 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Spencer Arrighetti)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
Record 30-37 25-41
R/Game 4.58 4.41 4.44
RA/Game 5.01 5.18 4.44
OPS 0.734 0.702 0.712
wOBA 0.314 0.305 0.307
ERA 4.91 4.82 4.13
FIP 4.70 4.31 3.99
WHIP 1.44 1.46 1.30
K/9 8.57 8.90 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.98 4.96 4.06
BP FIP 4.78 4.65 3.92
BP WHIP 1.42 1.51
BP K/9 8.70 8.93
BP Quality* 54.2 57.3 44.8
BP IP 263.7 247.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (33 pitches yesterday)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Pomeranz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9776 (Temp: 0.9963 | Wind: 0.9813)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 6.5 - LAA 5.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 6.5 - LAA 5.3
Win Probability: HOU 59.4% - LAA 40.6%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -146 / LAA +146
Avg Total Runs: 11.9
Over 9.0: 65.8%
Under 9.0: 26.1%
HOU -1.5: 46.2%
LAA +1.5: 53.8%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.200 / LAA 1.600
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.210 / LAA 1.279
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 4.0 - LAA 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 4.0 - LAA 2.9
F5 Win Prob: HOU 63.0% - LAA 37.0% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -170 / LAA +170
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML -126 -146 +3.6%
LAA ML +108 +146 -7.4%
HOU -1.5 +126 +116 +2.0%
LAA +1.5 -152 -116 -6.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +13.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -26.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00737
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 4.79
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 7.35 K/9: 6.94
BB/9: 2.97 BB/9: 3.93
FIP: 4.02 FIP: 4.67
IP: 68.7 IP: 57.7
xERA: 3.56 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Andrew Abbott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN SD Lg Avg
Record 31-33 33-31
R/Game 4.30 3.77 4.44
RA/Game 5.09 4.05 4.44
OPS 0.708 0.644 0.712
wOBA 0.306 0.280 0.307
ERA 4.81 3.97 4.13
FIP 5.01 3.83 3.99
WHIP 1.47 1.27 1.30
K/9 7.89 8.43 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.423 0.467 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.12 3.21 4.06
BP FIP 5.10 3.24 3.92
BP WHIP 1.55 1.21
BP K/9 8.83 9.31
BP Quality* 61.8 42.3 44.8
BP IP 247.7 255.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Paddack (33 pitches yesterday)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (36 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9906 (Temp: 0.9928 | Wind: 0.9978)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.4 - SD 4.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.4 - SD 4.0
Win Probability: CIN 53.6% - SD 46.4%
Fair Moneyline: CIN -116 / SD +116
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.1%
Under 7.5: 44.9%
CIN +1.5: 70.1%
SD -1.5: 29.9%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.891 / SD 1.201
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.379 / SD 0.944
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.7 - SD 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.7 - SD 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CIN 65.6% - SD 34.4% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -191 / SD +191
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +116 -116 +7.3%
SD ML -134 +116 -10.9%
CIN +1.5 -194 -234 +4.1%
SD -1.5 +160 +234 -8.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Miles Mikolas Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 5.11 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 5.76 K/9: 9.17
BB/9: 2.2 BB/9: 2.25
FIP: 5.11 FIP: 2.69
IP: 56.3 IP: 59.3
xERA: 5.27 xERA: 3.58
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH SF Lg Avg
Record 33-33 27-39
R/Game 5.33 4.12 4.44
RA/Game 5.27 4.85 4.44
OPS 0.741 0.718 0.712
wOBA 0.317 0.305 0.307
ERA 4.61 4.46 4.13
FIP 4.61 4.22 3.99
WHIP 1.37 1.41 1.30
K/9 7.81 7.99 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.426 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 4.17 4.06
BP FIP 4.70 4.32 3.92
BP WHIP 1.41 1.45
BP K/9 7.14 7.53
BP Quality* 52.9 54.5 44.8
BP IP 311.3 230.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Riley Cornelio (44 pitches yesterday)
SF: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Cool (57°F), crosswind (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9716 (Temp: 0.9820 | Wind: 0.9894)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.6 - SF 4.7
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.6 - SF 4.7
Win Probability: WSH 48.6% - SF 51.4%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +106 / SF -106
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.0: 54.2%
Under 8.0: 35.6%
WSH +1.5: 64.3%
SF -1.5: 35.7%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.251 / SF 0.776
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.181 / SF 1.217
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.1 - SF 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.1 - SF 2.7
F5 Win Prob: WSH 40.2% - SF 59.8% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +148 / SF -148
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +130 +106 +5.1%
SF ML -154 -106 -9.2%
WSH +1.5 -166 -180 +1.9%
SF -1.5 +138 +180 -6.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -16.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 3.26 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 10.18 K/9: 7.43
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 2.79
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 4.68
IP: 57.3 IP: 70.0
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Kyle Harrison)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL ATH Lg Avg
Record 40-23 31-34
R/Game 5.22 4.20 4.44
RA/Game 3.56 4.86 4.44
OPS 0.720 0.716 0.712
wOBA 0.311 0.309 0.307
ERA 3.26 4.54 4.13
FIP 3.18 4.51 3.99
WHIP 1.20 1.41 1.30
K/9 9.68 8.12 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.669 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.31 4.46 4.06
BP FIP 3.22 3.79 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.38
BP K/9 9.05 8.56
BP Quality* 40.1 46.0 44.8
BP IP 252.7 252.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9719 (Temp: 0.9840 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.4 - ATH 3.8
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.4 - ATH 3.7
Win Probability: MIL 65.5% - ATH 34.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -190 / ATH +190
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
MIL -1.5: 50.0%
MIL +1.5: 79.3%
ATH -1.5: 20.7%
ATH +1.5: 50.0%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.859 / ATH 1.073
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.895 / ATH 1.027
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 3.1 - ATH 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.1 - ATH 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIL 66.4% - ATH 33.6% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -198 / ATH +198
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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