2026-06-09
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-09
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Trevor Rogers
ERA: 3.57 ERA: 3.22
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 10.97 K/9: 7.93
BB/9: 2.11 BB/9: 2.62
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 3.3
IP: 73.7 IP: 54.3
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BAL Lg Avg
Record 35-32 31-36
R/Game 4.24 4.66 4.45
RA/Game 3.76 5.16 4.45
OPS 0.718 0.719 0.712
wOBA 0.312 0.311 0.307
ERA 3.49 4.60 4.13
FIP 3.39 4.19 3.99
WHIP 1.19 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.68 7.86 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.554 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.18 4.66 4.06
BP FIP 3.29 3.81 3.92
BP WHIP 1.32 1.35
BP K/9 8.63 8.53
BP Quality* 47.9 49.4 44.8
BP IP 218.0 251.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Brash (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.9 - BAL 4.5
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.9 - BAL 4.5
Win Probability: SEA 44.3% - BAL 55.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +126 / BAL -126
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 44.1%
Under 8.5: 55.9%
SEA -1.5: 28.4%
BAL +1.5: 71.6%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.814 / BAL 0.804
Bullpen Adj: SEA 1.069 / BAL 1.103
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.9 - BAL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.9 - BAL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 45.4% - BAL 54.6% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +120 / BAL -120
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -108 +126 -7.6%
BAL ML -108 -126 +3.7%
SEA -1.5 +142 +253 -13.0%
BAL +1.5 -172 -253 +8.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.5%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (Run Line) [-172]
Model: 71.6% | Market: 63.2% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -253 | Kelly: 5.72%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00738
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Eric Lauer (stats from ???, scheduled for LAD)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eric Lauer Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 3.77 ERA: 2.29
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 8.12 K/9: 10.43
BB/9: 2.52 BB/9: 1.88
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 2.3
IP: 47.0 IP: 70.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 2.65
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.255
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PIT Lg Avg
Record 42-24 34-32
R/Game 5.23 5.05 4.45
RA/Game 3.21 4.59 4.45
OPS 0.784 0.735 0.712
wOBA 0.335 0.319 0.307
ERA 3.17 4.03 4.13
FIP 3.39 3.55 3.99
WHIP 1.07 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.09 9.14 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.709 0.543 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.66 4.14 4.06
BP FIP 3.32 3.81 3.92
BP WHIP 1.18 1.32
BP K/9 9.62 9.43
BP Quality* 40.8 44.5 44.8
BP IP 206.7 256.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 3.8 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: LAD 3.8 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: LAD 39.8% - PIT 60.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +151 / PIT -151
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 46.5%
Under 8.5: 53.5%
LAD -1.5: 24.9%
PIT +1.5: 75.2%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.982 / PIT 0.586
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.911 / PIT 0.993
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 1.6 - PIT 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 1.6 - PIT 2.7
F5 Win Prob: LAD 30.9% - PIT 69.1% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +224 / PIT -224
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -104 +151 -11.2%
PIT ML -112 -151 +7.3%
LAD -1.5 +160 +302 -13.6%
PIT +1.5 -194 -302 +9.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Payton Tolle Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 2.28 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 9.7 K/9: 5.97
BB/9: 2.47 BB/9: 2.07
FIP: 2.59 FIP: 3.98
IP: 47.3 IP: 70.7
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
Record 27-37 38-25
R/Game 3.91 4.54 4.45
RA/Game 4.08 4.40 4.45
OPS 0.690 0.716 0.712
wOBA 0.300 0.310 0.307
ERA 3.87 3.90 4.13
FIP 3.89 4.11 3.99
WHIP 1.28 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.68 7.81 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.480 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 4.52 4.06
BP FIP 3.68 4.54 3.92
BP WHIP 1.19 1.34
BP K/9 9.05 7.99
BP Quality* 40.9 53.9 44.8
BP IP 245.7 256.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.9 - TB 3.7
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.9 - TB 3.7
Win Probability: BOS 51.6% - TB 48.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -106 / TB +106
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 46.6%
Under 7.5: 53.4%
BOS -1.5: 33.7%
TB +1.5: 66.3%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.785 / TB 0.952
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.913 / TB 1.203
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.0 - TB 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.0 - TB 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 51.0% - TB 49.0% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -104 / TB +104
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -116 -106 -2.1%
TB ML -102 +106 -2.1%
BOS -1.5 +158 +197 -5.1%
TB +1.5 -192 -197 +0.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Taj Bradley Home: Troy Melton
ERA: 4.58 ERA: 2.67
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 8.75 K/9: 6.82
BB/9: 3.63 BB/9: 2.93
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 4.43
IP: 60.7 IP: 20.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
Record 30-37 27-39
R/Game 4.60 3.94 4.45
RA/Game 4.99 4.30 4.45
OPS 0.701 0.695 0.712
wOBA 0.305 0.303 0.307
ERA 4.60 4.00 4.13
FIP 3.96 3.76 3.99
WHIP 1.38 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.20 8.29 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.463 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 4.26 4.06
BP FIP 4.10 4.12 3.92
BP WHIP 1.51 1.38
BP K/9 7.93 8.45
BP Quality* 50.2 48.4 44.8
BP IP 244.0 249.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.2 - DET 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.2 - DET 4.2
Win Probability: MIN 49.8% - DET 50.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +101 / DET -101
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 44.3%
Under 8.5: 55.7%
MIN +1.5: 66.7%
DET -1.5: 33.3%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.008 / DET 0.840
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.121 / DET 1.080
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.1 - DET 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.1 - DET 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIN 47.9% - DET 52.1% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +109 / DET -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +108 +101 +1.7%
DET ML -126 -101 -5.6%
MIN +1.5 -200 -200 +0.1%
DET -1.5 +164 +200 -4.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zac Gallen Home: Max Meyer
ERA: 5.01 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 7.39 K/9: 9.62
BB/9: 2.98 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 4.6 FIP: 3.8
IP: 64.3 IP: 73.7
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.8
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Max Meyer)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI MIA Lg Avg
Record 34-31 31-35
R/Game 4.35 4.18 4.45
RA/Game 4.51 4.48 4.45
OPS 0.695 0.698 0.712
wOBA 0.298 0.304 0.307
ERA 4.14 4.24 4.13
FIP 4.27 3.77 3.99
WHIP 1.27 1.26 1.30
K/9 7.21 8.66 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 3.60 4.06
BP FIP 3.85 3.50 3.92
BP WHIP 1.23 1.22
BP K/9 7.92 9.45
BP Quality* 43.9 43.5 44.8
BP IP 211.3 240.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.0 - MIA 4.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.0 - MIA 4.2
Win Probability: ARI 47.6% - MIA 52.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +110 / MIA -110
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 53.0%
Under 7.5: 47.0%
ARI +1.5: 65.0%
MIA -1.5: 35.0%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.111 / MIA 1.018
Bullpen Adj: ARI 0.980 / MIA 0.971
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.3 - MIA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.2 - MIA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ARI 46.9% - MIA 53.1% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +113 / MIA -113
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +110 +110 -0.0%
MIA ML -130 -110 -4.1%
ARI +1.5 -188 -185 -0.3%
MIA -1.5 +155 +185 -4.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Slade Cecconi
ERA: 2.0 ERA: 4.53
WHIP: 0.89 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 7.0 K/9: 7.34
BB/9: 2.0 BB/9: 2.41
FIP: 4.38 FIP: 4.4
IP: 18.0 IP: 67.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.99
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CLE Lg Avg
Record 39-26 37-31
R/Game 5.09 4.07 4.45
RA/Game 3.58 4.09 4.45
OPS 0.764 0.688 0.712
wOBA 0.327 0.299 0.307
ERA 3.27 3.78 4.13
FIP 3.46 3.85 3.99
WHIP 1.16 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.68 9.31 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.655 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 3.73 4.06
BP FIP 3.57 3.41 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.28
BP K/9 8.56 10.45
BP Quality* 46.9 42.0 44.8
BP IP 218.7 229.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: David Bednar (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 23%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0099 (Temp: 1.0121 | Wind: 0.9978)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.1 - CLE 3.4
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.1 - CLE 3.3
Win Probability: NYY 67.4% - CLE 32.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -206 / CLE +206
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 45.3%
Under 8.5: 54.7%
NYY -1.5: 50.9%
CLE +1.5: 49.1%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.669 / CLE 1.123
Bullpen Adj: NYY 1.047 / CLE 0.938
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 3.1 - CLE 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 3.1 - CLE 1.5
F5 Win Prob: NYY 76.0% - CLE 24.0% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -317 / CLE +317
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -124 -206 +12.0%
CLE ML +106 +206 -15.9%
NYY -1.5 +134 -104 +8.2%
CLE +1.5 -162 +104 -12.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] New York Yankees -1.5 (Run Line) [+134]
Model: 50.9% | Market: 42.7% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -104 | Kelly: 3.58%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00739
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -124 | Edge: 12.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00740
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 2.62 ERA: 4.08
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 11.0 K/9: 12.1
BB/9: 2.01 BB/9: 3.79
FIP: 2.96 FIP: 3.12
IP: 50.7 IP: 62.0
xERA: 2.49 xERA: 3.46
xwOBA: 0.247 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI TOR Lg Avg
Record 36-30 32-35
R/Game 4.05 4.09 4.45
RA/Game 4.29 4.33 4.45
OPS 0.688 0.699 0.712
wOBA 0.297 0.300 0.307
ERA 4.02 4.05 4.13
FIP 3.40 3.70 3.99
WHIP 1.29 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.50 9.01 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.68 3.88 4.06
BP FIP 3.15 3.59 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.25
BP K/9 9.91 9.10
BP Quality* 40.6 47.9 44.8
BP IP 229.7 287.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Simeon Woods Richardson (48 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9832 (Temp: 0.9981 | Wind: 0.9851)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.6 - TOR 3.1
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.7 - TOR 3.1
Win Probability: PHI 56.0% - TOR 44.0%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -127 / TOR +127
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 7.5: 37.3%
Under 7.5: 62.7%
PHI -1.5: 36.9%
TOR +1.5: 63.1%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.656 / TOR 0.842
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.906 / TOR 1.069
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 1.8 - TOR 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.8 - TOR 1.5
F5 Win Prob: PHI 57.4% - TOR 42.6% (Tie: 21.5%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -135 / TOR +135
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -106 -127 +4.6%
TOR ML -110 +127 -8.4%
PHI -1.5 +164 +171 -1.0%
TOR +1.5 -200 -171 -3.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -15.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +10.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00741
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dustin May Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 4.83 ERA: 3.05
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.28 K/9: 9.97
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 3.5
FIP: 4.08 FIP: 3.63
IP: 66.7 IP: 72.0
xERA: 5.2 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Freddy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL NYM Lg Avg
Record 35-28 29-36
R/Game 4.41 4.08 4.45
RA/Game 4.44 4.15 4.45
OPS 0.709 0.661 0.712
wOBA 0.305 0.285 0.307
ERA 4.09 3.75 4.13
FIP 4.04 3.56 3.99
WHIP 1.35 1.28 1.30
K/9 7.72 9.19 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.497 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 3.24 4.06
BP FIP 3.89 3.45 3.92
BP WHIP 1.37 1.21
BP K/9 8.22 9.24
BP Quality* 49.8 38.8 44.8
BP IP 235.3 280.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9820 (Temp: 0.9950 | Wind: 0.9870)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 3.5 - NYM 4.4
Simulated Avg: STL 3.5 - NYM 4.4
Win Probability: STL 39.5% - NYM 60.5%
Fair Moneyline: STL +153 / NYM -153
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.5: 49.6%
Under 7.5: 50.3%
STL +1.5: 57.2%
NYM -1.5: 42.8%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.128 / NYM 0.827
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.112 / NYM 0.866
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 1.9 - NYM 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.9 - NYM 2.5
F5 Win Prob: STL 40.1% - NYM 59.9% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +149 / NYM -149
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +108 +153 -8.6%
NYM ML -126 -153 +4.8%
STL +1.5 -205 -134 -10.0%
NYM -1.5 +168 +134 +5.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Stephen Kolek
ERA: 2.54 ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 8.93 K/9: 6.19
BB/9: 1.66 BB/9: 2.38
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 3.67
IP: 74.7 IP: 38.0
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX KC Lg Avg
Record 32-33 27-39
R/Game 4.03 3.91 4.45
RA/Game 3.82 4.64 4.45
OPS 0.698 0.688 0.712
wOBA 0.303 0.298 0.307
ERA 3.66 4.41 4.13
FIP 3.90 4.35 3.99
WHIP 1.21 1.37 1.30
K/9 8.58 8.32 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.525 0.423 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 5.00 4.06
BP FIP 3.79 4.85 3.92
BP WHIP 1.21 1.55
BP K/9 7.60 8.52
BP Quality* 42.0 55.6 44.8
BP IP 225.0 219.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Luis Curvelo (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9795 (Temp: 1.0232 | Wind: 0.9573)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.0 - KC 3.1
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.0 - KC 3.1
Win Probability: TEX 60.2% - KC 39.8%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -151 / KC +151
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 9.5: 22.6%
Under 9.5: 77.5%
TEX -1.5: 41.4%
KC +1.5: 58.6%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.714 / KC 0.931
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.938 / KC 1.241
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.0 - KC 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.0 - KC 1.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 60.5% - KC 39.5% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -153 / KC +153
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -124 -151 +4.8%
KC ML +106 +151 -8.7%
TEX -1.5 +126 +142 -2.9%
KC +1.5 -152 -142 -1.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -29.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +25.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 25.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00742
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Grant Holmes Home: Erick Fedde
ERA: 3.95 ERA: 5.36
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 9.12 K/9: 5.36
BB/9: 4.1 BB/9: 4.15
FIP: 4.48 FIP: 5.31
IP: 63.0 IP: 58.3
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Grant Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CWS Lg Avg
Record 45-21 34-31
R/Game 5.21 4.77 4.45
RA/Game 3.45 4.65 4.45
OPS 0.753 0.741 0.712
wOBA 0.323 0.317 0.307
ERA 3.19 4.38 4.13
FIP 3.70 4.14 3.99
WHIP 1.16 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.88 8.25 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.680 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.96 4.44 4.06
BP FIP 3.33 4.29 3.92
BP WHIP 1.10 1.35
BP K/9 9.10 8.51
BP Quality* 37.9 48.1 44.8
BP IP 231.3 287.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0090 (Temp: 1.0186 | Wind: 0.9906)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 6.2 - CWS 4.8
Simulated Avg: ATL 6.2 - CWS 4.8
Win Probability: ATL 61.9% - CWS 38.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -162 / CWS +162
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.0: 59.2%
Under 9.0: 31.9%
ATL -1.5: 48.3%
CWS +1.5: 51.7%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.059 / CWS 1.297
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.846 / CWS 1.074
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 3.8 - CWS 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.8 - CWS 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATL 61.6% - CWS 38.4% (Tie: 12.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -160 / CWS +160
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -154 -162 +1.2%
CWS ML +130 +162 -5.3%
ATL -1.5 +102 +107 -1.2%
CWS +1.5 -122 -107 -3.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +6.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Colin Rea Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 4.13 ERA: 4.41
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.19 K/9: 5.75
BB/9: 2.65 BB/9: 2.23
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 5.14
IP: 64.7 IP: 63.3
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 5.81
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.366
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Colin Rea)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC COL Lg Avg
Record 34-32 24-42
R/Game 4.59 4.30 4.45
RA/Game 4.55 5.80 4.45
OPS 0.721 0.704 0.712
wOBA 0.314 0.306 0.307
ERA 4.29 5.60 4.13
FIP 4.44 4.59 3.99
WHIP 1.23 1.52 1.30
K/9 8.08 7.37 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.366 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.56 5.30 4.06
BP FIP 4.25 4.11 3.92
BP WHIP 1.22 1.47
BP K/9 7.88 8.34
BP Quality* 46.9 50.9 44.8
BP IP 248.0 295.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Palencia (2 of last 3 days)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), strong crosswind (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0038 (Temp: 1.0210 | Wind: 0.9832)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 6.3 - COL 5.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 6.3 - COL 5.2
Win Probability: CHC 58.5% - COL 41.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -141 / COL +141
Avg Total Runs: 11.5
Over 12.5: 38.1%
Under 12.5: 61.9%
CHC -1.5: 45.1%
COL +1.5: 54.9%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.026 / COL 1.257
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.047 / COL 1.136
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.7 - COL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.6 - COL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CHC 60.5% - COL 39.5% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -153 / COL +153
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -154 -141 -2.1%
COL ML +130 +141 -2.0%
CHC -1.5 -102 +122 -5.4%
COL +1.5 -118 -122 +0.8%
O 12.5 -110 N/A -14.3%
U 12.5 -110 N/A +9.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 12.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -162 | Kelly: 4.98%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00743
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kai-Wei Teng Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 3.06 ERA: 2.68
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.43 K/9: 8.58
BB/9: 4.02 BB/9: 5.01
FIP: 4.23 FIP: 3.9
IP: 47.0 IP: 50.3
xERA: 4.02 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
Record 31-37 25-42
R/Game 4.59 4.40 4.45
RA/Game 5.00 5.18 4.45
OPS 0.732 0.702 0.712
wOBA 0.313 0.304 0.307
ERA 4.89 4.79 4.13
FIP 4.68 4.27 3.99
WHIP 1.43 1.46 1.30
K/9 8.61 8.95 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.426 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.94 4.90 4.06
BP FIP 4.76 4.62 3.92
BP WHIP 1.42 1.51
BP K/9 8.74 9.01
BP Quality* 54.0 58.4 44.8
BP IP 267.7 251.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Pomeranz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9807 (Temp: 0.9990 | Wind: 0.9816)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.5 - LAA 4.7
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.5 - LAA 4.6
Win Probability: HOU 48.7% - LAA 51.3%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +105 / LAA -105
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 52.5%
Under 8.5: 47.5%
HOU -1.5: 33.4%
LAA +1.5: 66.6%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 0.936 / LAA 0.826
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.205 / LAA 1.304
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.1 - LAA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.1 - LAA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: HOU 45.9% - LAA 54.1% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +118 / LAA -118
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -120 +105 -5.8%
LAA ML +102 -105 +1.8%
HOU -1.5 +134 +199 -9.3%
LAA +1.5 -162 -199 +4.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chase Burns Home: Lucas Giolito
ERA: 3.71 ERA: 3.58
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 12.7 K/9: 7.33
BB/9: 3.1 BB/9: 3.88
FIP: 2.87 FIP: 4.38
IP: 70.3 IP: 16.7
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 5.06
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SD Lg Avg
Record 31-34 34-31
R/Game 4.26 3.80 4.45
RA/Game 5.11 4.02 4.45
OPS 0.707 0.647 0.712
wOBA 0.306 0.281 0.307
ERA 4.84 3.94 4.13
FIP 5.00 3.80 3.99
WHIP 1.47 1.27 1.30
K/9 7.87 8.47 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.418 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.19 3.19 4.06
BP FIP 5.08 3.21 3.92
BP WHIP 1.57 1.20
BP K/9 8.76 9.39
BP Quality* 62.1 43.5 44.8
BP IP 249.7 259.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zach McCambley (32 pitches yesterday)
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9966 (Temp: 0.9953 | Wind: 1.0013)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.8 - SD 3.9
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.8 - SD 3.9
Win Probability: CIN 48.9% - SD 51.1%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +104 / SD -104
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 47.4%
Under 7.5: 52.6%
CIN -1.5: 31.5%
SD +1.5: 68.5%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.797 / SD 0.919
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.386 / SD 0.971
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - SD 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.0 - SD 1.6
F5 Win Prob: CIN 58.7% - SD 41.3% (Tie: 19.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -142 / SD +142
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML -122 +104 -6.0%
SD ML +104 -104 +2.1%
CIN -1.5 +134 +217 -11.2%
SD +1.5 -162 -217 +6.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Alvarez Home: Adrian Houser
ERA: 3.54 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 9.74 K/9: 6.38
BB/9: 2.66 BB/9: 3.02
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 4.1
IP: 20.3 IP: 60.7
xERA: 2.87 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.265 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH SF Lg Avg
Record 34-33 27-40
R/Game 5.31 4.10 4.45
RA/Game 5.24 4.84 4.45
OPS 0.738 0.718 0.712
wOBA 0.316 0.305 0.307
ERA 4.58 4.45 4.13
FIP 4.57 4.17 3.99
WHIP 1.37 1.40 1.30
K/9 7.80 7.99 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.426 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 4.27 4.06
BP FIP 4.63 4.31 3.92
BP WHIP 1.42 1.45
BP K/9 7.13 7.54
BP Quality* 55.5 56.3 44.8
BP IP 319.3 231.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mitchell Parker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gus Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Miles Mikolas (54 pitches yesterday)
SF: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Keaton Winn (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9724 (Temp: 0.9896 | Wind: 0.9827)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 5.3 - SF 4.3
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.3 - SF 4.3
Win Probability: WSH 58.9% - SF 41.1%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -143 / SF +143
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.8%
Under 8.5: 44.2%
WSH -1.5: 43.7%
SF +1.5: 56.3%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.008 / SF 0.985
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.239 / SF 1.257
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.7 - SF 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.7 - SF 2.1
F5 Win Prob: WSH 58.6% - SF 41.4% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -142 / SF +142
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML -104 -143 +7.9%
SF ML -112 +143 -11.7%
WSH -1.5 +164 +129 +5.9%
SF +1.5 -200 -129 -10.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robert Gasser Home: J.T. Ginn
ERA: 4.73 ERA: 4.34
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 8.1 K/9: 9.34
BB/9: 4.73 BB/9: 3.28
FIP: 4.83 FIP: 4.23
IP: 13.3 IP: 65.7
xERA: 4.96 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: ATH (J.T. Ginn)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL ATH Lg Avg
Record 41-23 31-35
R/Game 5.38 4.35 4.45
RA/Game 3.72 5.02 4.45
OPS 0.727 0.727 0.712
wOBA 0.314 0.312 0.307
ERA 3.39 4.64 4.13
FIP 3.30 4.55 3.99
WHIP 1.21 1.42 1.30
K/9 9.79 8.19 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.662 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.36 4.62 4.06
BP FIP 3.33 3.83 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.39
BP K/9 9.26 8.75
BP Quality* 45.2 54.3 44.8
BP IP 262.3 259.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Rom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (36 pitches yesterday)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Hogan Harris (B2B, 35 pitches)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9789 (Temp: 0.9906 | Wind: 0.9881)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.7 - ATH 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.8 - ATH 4.4
Win Probability: MIL 62.0% - ATH 38.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -163 / ATH +163
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
MIL -1.5: 47.7%
MIL +1.5: 75.3%
ATH -1.5: 24.7%
ATH +1.5: 52.3%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.951 / ATH 0.989
Bullpen Adj: MIL 1.009 / ATH 1.212
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 3.0 - ATH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.9 - ATH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIL 59.4% - ATH 40.6% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -146 / ATH +146
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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