2026-06-10
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-10
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jake Bennett Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 4.35 ERA: 2.84
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 3.48 K/9: 8.0
BB/9: 3.48 BB/9: 2.02
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 3.56
IP: 10.3 IP: 66.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
Record 27-38 39-25
R/Game 3.89 4.53 4.46
RA/Game 4.08 4.38 4.45
OPS 0.687 0.718 0.713
wOBA 0.299 0.311 0.308
ERA 3.88 3.89 4.14
FIP 3.86 4.08 4.00
WHIP 1.28 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.63 7.72 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.516 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.13 4.49 4.05
BP FIP 3.66 4.53 3.92
BP WHIP 1.20 1.33
BP K/9 9.05 7.93
BP Quality* 40.8 53.7 44.8
BP IP 247.7 258.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.5 - TB 4.2
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.5 - TB 4.2
Win Probability: BOS 42.3% - TB 57.7%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +137 / TB -137
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 48.3%
Under 7.5: 51.7%
BOS +1.5: 60.5%
TB -1.5: 39.5%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.983 / TB 0.810
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.911 / TB 1.199
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 1.7 - TB 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.7 - TB 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BOS 36.3% - TB 63.7% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +175 / TB -175
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +126 +137 -2.0%
TB ML -148 -137 -1.9%
BOS +1.5 -184 -153 -4.2%
TB -1.5 +152 +153 -0.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Carlos Rodón Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 3.06 ERA: 2.6
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.4 K/9: 8.89
BB/9: 3.7 BB/9: 1.84
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 3.08
IP: 25.0 IP: 75.0
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CLE Lg Avg
Record 40-26 37-32
R/Game 5.06 4.04 4.46
RA/Game 3.56 4.07 4.45
OPS 0.762 0.688 0.713
wOBA 0.327 0.299 0.308
ERA 3.25 3.77 4.14
FIP 3.44 3.88 4.00
WHIP 1.17 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.69 9.29 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.656 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 3.71 4.05
BP FIP 3.54 3.48 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.27
BP K/9 8.57 10.31
BP Quality* 52.5 45.3 44.8
BP IP 223.7 233.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +12.0)
UNAVAIL: Tim Hill (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon 3B OPS: 0.693 (509 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.6% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Kyle Manzardo, Steven Kwan, Patrick Bailey
Kyle Manzardo 1B OPS: 0.768 (470 AB)
Steven Kwan CF OPS: 0.704 (625 AB)
Patrick Bailey C OPS: 0.602 (409 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.0 - CLE 3.6
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.0 - CLE 3.6
Win Probability: NYY 53.9% - CLE 46.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -117 / CLE +117
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.0: 35.4%
Under 8.0: 53.8%
NYY -1.5: 36.2%
CLE +1.5: 63.8%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.767 / CLE 0.714
Bullpen Adj: NYY 1.172 / CLE 1.011
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 1.9 - CLE 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 1.9 - CLE 1.6
F5 Win Prob: NYY 56.2% - CLE 43.8% (Tie: 20.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -128 / CLE +128
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML +102 -117 +4.4%
CLE ML -120 +117 -8.5%
NYY -1.5 +172 +176 -0.6%
CLE +1.5 -210 -176 -3.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -17.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +1.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Foster Griffin Home: Robbie Ray
ERA: 3.63 ERA: 3.82
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 8.63 K/9: 8.88
BB/9: 2.63 BB/9: 4.04
FIP: 4.59 FIP: 4.39
IP: 72.0 IP: 67.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH SF Lg Avg
Record 35-33 27-41
R/Game 5.32 4.09 4.46
RA/Game 5.21 4.85 4.45
OPS 0.739 0.721 0.713
wOBA 0.317 0.307 0.308
ERA 4.56 4.46 4.14
FIP 4.58 4.17 4.00
WHIP 1.38 1.40 1.31
K/9 7.77 8.03 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.422 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 4.27 4.05
BP FIP 4.65 4.31 3.92
BP WHIP 1.41 1.46
BP K/9 7.08 7.58
BP Quality* 55.4 56.4 44.8
BP IP 324.3 236.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Gus Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Lord (57 pitches yesterday)
SF: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Dylan Smith (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9935 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 0.9820)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 5.4 - SF 4.3
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.4 - SF 4.3
Win Probability: WSH 59.2% - SF 40.8%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -145 / SF +145
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 57.4%
Under 8.0: 32.8%
WSH -1.5: 44.1%
SF +1.5: 55.9%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 1.016 / SF 0.968
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.237 / SF 1.259
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.7 - SF 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.7 - SF 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 58.0% - SF 42.0% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -138 / SF +138
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML -104 -145 +8.2%
SF ML -112 +145 -12.1%
WSH -1.5 +158 +127 +5.3%
SF +1.5 -192 -127 -9.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brady Singer Home: Michael King
ERA: 4.67 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.04 K/9: 8.98
BB/9: 3.16 BB/9: 3.32
FIP: 4.7 FIP: 4.07
IP: 55.0 IP: 74.0
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: SD (Michael King)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN SD Lg Avg
Record 32-34 34-32
R/Game 4.27 3.79 4.46
RA/Game 5.08 4.03 4.45
OPS 0.706 0.648 0.713
wOBA 0.305 0.281 0.308
ERA 4.78 3.89 4.14
FIP 4.94 3.80 4.00
WHIP 1.47 1.28 1.31
K/9 7.93 8.56 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.422 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.08 3.14 4.05
BP FIP 5.02 3.19 3.92
BP WHIP 1.56 1.20
BP K/9 8.78 9.58
BP Quality* 62.9 47.7 44.8
BP IP 255.3 266.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
SD: DEPLETED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Adrian Morejon (B2B, 34 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Jason Adam (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9763 (Temp: 1.0012 | Wind: 0.9752)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.9 - SD 4.4
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.9 - SD 4.4
Win Probability: CIN 44.9% - SD 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +123 / SD -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 44.0%
Under 8.0: 45.1%
CIN +1.5: 61.8%
SD -1.5: 38.2%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 1.097 / SD 0.961
Bullpen Adj: CIN 1.400 / SD 1.065
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - SD 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - SD 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CIN 48.7% - SD 51.3% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +106 / SD -106
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +138 +123 +2.9%
SD ML -164 -123 -7.0%
CIN +1.5 -162 -162 +0.0%
SD -1.5 +134 +162 -4.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: George Kirby Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 5.53
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 7.19
BB/9: 2.07 BB/9: 3.35
FIP: 3.22 FIP: 5.04
IP: 78.0 IP: 49.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BAL Lg Avg
Record 36-32 31-37
R/Game 4.26 4.66 4.46
RA/Game 3.78 5.18 4.45
OPS 0.718 0.718 0.713
wOBA 0.312 0.311 0.308
ERA 3.48 4.60 4.14
FIP 3.40 4.20 4.00
WHIP 1.18 1.41 1.31
K/9 8.66 7.80 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.555 0.452 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.20 4.65 4.05
BP FIP 3.33 3.84 3.92
BP WHIP 1.32 1.35
BP K/9 8.59 8.46
BP Quality* 46.7 49.6 44.8
BP IP 222.0 255.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 43%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9869 (Temp: 1.0066 | Wind: 0.9805)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.8 - BAL 4.6
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.8 - BAL 4.5
Win Probability: SEA 52.7% - BAL 47.3%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -111 / BAL +111
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 44.6%
Under 9.0: 45.7%
SEA -1.5: 37.4%
BAL +1.5: 62.6%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.890 / BAL 1.182
Bullpen Adj: SEA 1.042 / BAL 1.107
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.8 - BAL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.8 - BAL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SEA 56.7% - BAL 43.3% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -131 / BAL +131
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -110 -111 +0.3%
BAL ML -106 +111 -4.2%
SEA -1.5 +146 +168 -3.3%
BAL +1.5 -178 -168 -1.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shohei Ohtani Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 2.26 ERA: 4.82
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.61
K/9: 11.3 K/9: 9.64
BB/9: 1.99 BB/9: 3.86
FIP: 1.97 FIP: 5.04
IP: 61.0 IP: 9.3
xERA: 2.55 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.25 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Shohei Ohtani)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PIT Lg Avg
Record 43-24 34-33
R/Game 5.33 5.01 4.46
RA/Game 3.21 4.70 4.45
OPS 0.788 0.732 0.713
wOBA 0.337 0.318 0.308
ERA 3.17 4.11 4.14
FIP 3.40 3.58 4.00
WHIP 1.07 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.13 9.14 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.717 0.529 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.64 4.33 4.05
BP FIP 3.28 3.92 3.92
BP WHIP 1.18 1.36
BP K/9 9.77 9.39
BP Quality* 40.5 49.0 44.8
BP IP 210.0 259.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandan Bidois (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9999 (Temp: 1.0270 | Wind: 0.9736)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.4 - PIT 3.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.4 - PIT 3.5
Win Probability: LAD 68.1% - PIT 31.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -213 / PIT +213
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 49.4%
Under 8.5: 50.6%
LAD -1.5: 52.4%
PIT +1.5: 47.6%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.542 / PIT 1.027
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.904 / PIT 1.094
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 3.0 - PIT 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.0 - PIT 1.5
F5 Win Prob: LAD 74.8% - PIT 25.2% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -297 / PIT +297
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -205 -213 +0.9%
PIT ML +172 +213 -4.9%
LAD -1.5 -125 -110 -3.1%
PIT +1.5 +104 +110 -1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Framber Valdez
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
Record 30-38 28-39
R/Game 4.59 4.03 4.46
RA/Game 5.06 4.30 4.45
OPS 0.706 0.703 0.713
wOBA 0.307 0.306 0.308
ERA 4.69 4.00 4.14
FIP 4.04 3.81 4.00
WHIP 1.38 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.21 8.33 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.98 4.19 4.05
BP FIP 4.13 4.09 3.92
BP WHIP 1.51 1.38
BP K/9 7.99 8.53
BP Quality* 53.7 51.0 44.8
BP IP 247.7 253.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cody Laweryson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0117 (Temp: 1.0241 | Wind: 0.9879)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.5 - DET 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.5 - DET 4.5
Win Probability: MIN 49.9% - DET 50.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +100 / DET -100
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 40.3%
Under 9.0: 49.9%
MIN +1.5: 65.9%
DET -1.5: 34.1%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.000 / DET 0.888
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.199 / DET 1.138
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.2 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.2 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIN 49.3% - DET 50.7% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +103 / DET -103
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +146 +100 +9.3%
DET ML -174 -100 -13.4%
MIN +1.5 -142 -193 +7.2%
DET -1.5 +118 +193 -11.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Minnesota Twins +1.5 (Run Line) [-142]
Model: 65.9% | Market: 58.7% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -193 | Kelly: 4.35%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00744
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryne Nelson Home: Ryan Gusto
ERA: 3.84 ERA: 5.82
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 7.39 K/9: 8.6
BB/9: 2.48 BB/9: 3.15
FIP: 4.19 FIP: 4.35
IP: 72.3 IP: 5.0
xERA: 3.93 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI MIA Lg Avg
Record 34-32 32-35
R/Game 4.38 4.27 4.46
RA/Game 4.59 4.51 4.45
OPS 0.700 0.703 0.713
wOBA 0.300 0.306 0.308
ERA 4.24 4.25 4.14
FIP 4.25 3.80 4.00
WHIP 1.28 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.17 8.69 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.29 3.66 4.05
BP FIP 3.86 3.52 3.92
BP WHIP 1.25 1.24
BP K/9 7.86 9.53
BP Quality* 47.8 44.0 44.8
BP IP 214.0 243.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0102 (Temp: 1.0153 | Wind: 0.9950)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.2 - MIA 4.1
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.2 - MIA 4.1
Win Probability: ARI 51.1% - MIA 48.9%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -105 / MIA +105
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 44.4%
Under 8.5: 55.6%
ARI -1.5: 34.7%
MIA +1.5: 65.3%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 0.969 / MIA 1.102
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.067 / MIA 0.982
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.5 - MIA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.5 - MIA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 55.4% - MIA 44.6% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -124 / MIA +124
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -116 -105 -2.6%
MIA ML -102 +105 -1.6%
ARI -1.5 +146 +188 -6.0%
MIA +1.5 -178 -188 +1.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Max Scherzer
ERA: 4.16 ERA: 5.83
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 10.31 K/9: 8.13
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 2.64
FIP: 2.95 FIP: 5.36
IP: 73.0 IP: 18.7
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 4.64
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI TOR Lg Avg
Record 36-31 33-35
R/Game 4.01 4.07 4.46
RA/Game 4.27 4.29 4.45
OPS 0.684 0.699 0.713
wOBA 0.296 0.301 0.308
ERA 4.01 4.02 4.14
FIP 3.39 3.65 4.00
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.31
K/9 9.49 9.09 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 3.87 4.05
BP FIP 3.12 3.57 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.25
BP K/9 9.95 9.13
BP Quality* 43.6 44.8 44.8
BP IP 231.7 290.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0048 (Temp: 1.0065 | Wind: 0.9984)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.3 - TOR 3.7
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.3 - TOR 3.7
Win Probability: PHI 56.2% - TOR 43.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -128 / TOR +128
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 40.2%
Under 8.5: 59.8%
PHI -1.5: 39.1%
TOR +1.5: 60.9%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.818 / TOR 1.146
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.973 / TOR 1.000
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.5 - TOR 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.5 - TOR 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 62.0% - TOR 38.0% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -163 / TOR +163
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -136 -128 -1.4%
TOR ML +116 +128 -2.5%
PHI -1.5 +125 +156 -5.4%
TOR +1.5 -150 -156 +0.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.91%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00745
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andre Pallante Home: Austin Warren
ERA: 4.85 ERA: 2.01
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 6.51 K/9: 9.27
BB/9: 3.37 BB/9: 3.63
FIP: 4.44 FIP: 3.41
IP: 63.7 IP: 22.3
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Austin Warren)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL NYM Lg Avg
Record 36-28 29-37
R/Game 4.45 4.02 4.46
RA/Game 4.38 4.20 4.45
OPS 0.710 0.658 0.713
wOBA 0.306 0.284 0.308
ERA 4.03 3.80 4.14
FIP 3.99 3.56 4.00
WHIP 1.34 1.28 1.31
K/9 7.74 9.14 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.04 3.24 4.05
BP FIP 3.86 3.43 3.92
BP WHIP 1.36 1.21
BP K/9 8.23 9.17
BP Quality* 44.9 38.7 44.8
BP IP 238.3 283.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9934 (Temp: 1.0057 | Wind: 0.9878)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 3.3 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: STL 3.3 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: STL 40.8% - NYM 59.2%
Fair Moneyline: STL +145 / NYM -145
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.5: 35.1%
Under 8.5: 64.9%
STL +1.5: 59.1%
NYM -1.5: 40.9%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.085 / NYM 0.745
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.002 / NYM 0.864
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 1.8 - NYM 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.8 - NYM 2.4
F5 Win Prob: STL 38.9% - NYM 61.2% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +157 / NYM -157
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +116 +145 -5.5%
NYM ML -136 -145 +1.6%
STL +1.5 -176 -145 -4.6%
NYM -1.5 +146 +145 +0.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -17.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +12.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00746
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Seth Lugo
ERA: 4.19 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 10.1 K/9: 7.68
BB/9: 3.79 BB/9: 3.2
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 4.42
IP: 66.0 IP: 76.0
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 5.16
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.348
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX KC Lg Avg
Record 32-34 28-39
R/Game 4.02 3.93 4.46
RA/Game 3.83 4.61 4.45
OPS 0.697 0.691 0.713
wOBA 0.303 0.299 0.308
ERA 3.69 4.38 4.14
FIP 3.93 4.32 4.00
WHIP 1.22 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.51 8.31 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.17 4.95 4.05
BP FIP 3.84 4.79 3.92
BP WHIP 1.21 1.53
BP K/9 7.52 8.57
BP Quality* 40.8 55.0 44.8
BP IP 227.3 223.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 20 mph (gusts 39 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), strong wind in (20 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9612 (Temp: 1.0237 | Wind: 0.9390)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.3 - KC 3.6
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.3 - KC 3.6
Win Probability: TEX 57.9% - KC 42.1%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -137 / KC +137
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 10.0: 22.2%
Under 10.0: 70.0%
TEX -1.5: 40.5%
KC +1.5: 59.5%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.965 / KC 1.108
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.911 / KC 1.228
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.3 - KC 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.3 - KC 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TEX 55.5% - KC 44.5% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -125 / KC +125
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -120 -137 +3.3%
KC ML +102 +137 -7.4%
TEX -1.5 +132 +147 -2.6%
KC +1.5 -160 -147 -2.0%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -30.2%
U 10.0 -110 N/A +17.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00747
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chris Sale Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CWS Lg Avg
Record 45-22 35-31
R/Game 5.21 4.79 4.46
RA/Game 3.49 4.65 4.45
OPS 0.755 0.741 0.713
wOBA 0.324 0.317 0.308
ERA 3.22 4.35 4.14
FIP 3.74 4.16 4.00
WHIP 1.17 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.81 8.21 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.675 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.96 4.33 4.05
BP FIP 3.39 4.28 3.92
BP WHIP 1.10 1.34
BP K/9 8.99 8.39
BP Quality* 39.7 50.6 44.8
BP IP 237.3 297.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Carlos Carrasco (30 pitches yesterday)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (88 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 31 mph)
Precip Chance: 48%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), strong wind in (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9725 (Temp: 1.0214 | Wind: 0.9521)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 5.2 - CWS 3.5
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.2 - CWS 3.5
Win Probability: ATL 66.9% - CWS 33.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -202 / CWS +202
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.5: 58.5%
Under 7.5: 41.5%
ATL -1.5: 50.8%
CWS +1.5: 49.2%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 0.628 / CWS 1.000
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.886 / CWS 1.129
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.8 - CWS 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.8 - CWS 1.6
F5 Win Prob: ATL 70.0% - CWS 30.0% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -233 / CWS +233
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -154 -202 +6.3%
CWS ML +130 +202 -10.4%
ATL -1.5 +112 -103 +3.7%
CWS +1.5 -134 +103 -8.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shota Imanaga Home: Michael Lorenzen
ERA: 4.11 ERA: 5.89
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 7.83 K/9: 7.72
BB/9: 1.85 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 4.81 FIP: 4.63
IP: 76.0 IP: 60.7
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC COL Lg Avg
Record 34-33 25-42
R/Game 4.57 4.34 4.46
RA/Game 4.58 5.76 4.45
OPS 0.721 0.711 0.713
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.308
ERA 4.34 5.56 4.14
FIP 4.48 4.59 4.00
WHIP 1.24 1.52 1.31
K/9 8.03 7.35 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.374 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 5.23 4.05
BP FIP 4.25 4.10 3.92
BP WHIP 1.23 1.47
BP K/9 7.84 8.32
BP Quality* 43.8 52.2 44.8
BP IP 251.3 299.7
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), crosswind (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0178 (Temp: 1.0198 | Wind: 0.9981)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 6.2 - COL 5.3
Simulated Avg: CHC 6.2 - COL 5.3
Win Probability: CHC 57.2% - COL 42.8%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -134 / COL +134
Avg Total Runs: 11.5
Over 12.0: 37.8%
Under 12.0: 54.2%
CHC -1.5: 43.7%
COL +1.5: 56.3%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.057 / COL 1.193
Bullpen Adj: CHC 0.978 / COL 1.165
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.5 - COL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.5 - COL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 56.9% - COL 43.1% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -132 / COL +132
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -172 -134 -6.1%
COL ML +144 +134 +1.8%
CHC -1.5 -115 +129 -9.7%
COL +1.5 -104 -129 +5.3%
O 12.0 -110 N/A -14.6%
U 12.0 -110 N/A +1.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 6.17 ERA: 4.25
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 8.68
BB/9: 4.83 BB/9: 4.14
FIP: 5.36 FIP: 3.88
IP: 54.0 IP: 32.0
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Jack Perkins)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL ATH Lg Avg
Record 41-24 32-35
R/Game 5.37 4.39 4.46
RA/Game 3.77 5.01 4.45
OPS 0.727 0.732 0.713
wOBA 0.313 0.314 0.308
ERA 3.46 4.65 4.14
FIP 3.40 4.52 4.00
WHIP 1.22 1.42 1.31
K/9 9.78 8.26 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.656 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.36 4.56 4.05
BP FIP 3.39 3.76 3.92
BP WHIP 1.27 1.37
BP K/9 9.19 8.91
BP Quality* 42.5 52.1 44.8
BP IP 265.3 262.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Barnett (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0016 (Temp: 1.0132 | Wind: 0.9886)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.6 - ATH 5.2
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.6 - ATH 5.2
Win Probability: MIL 53.8% - ATH 46.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -117 / ATH +117
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
MIL -1.5: 39.9%
MIL +1.5: 67.6%
ATH -1.5: 32.4%
ATH +1.5: 60.1%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 1.240 / ATH 0.939
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.949 / ATH 1.163
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.9 - ATH 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.9 - ATH 3.1
F5 Win Prob: MIL 45.7% - ATH 54.3% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +119 / ATH -119
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Peter Lambert Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 3.55 ERA: 4.07
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 8.35 K/9: 11.08
BB/9: 4.44 BB/9: 3.3
FIP: 3.49 FIP: 2.9
IP: 50.7 IP: 74.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.61
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
Record 31-38 26-42
R/Game 4.54 4.49 4.46
RA/Game 5.07 5.12 4.45
OPS 0.728 0.702 0.713
wOBA 0.312 0.305 0.308
ERA 4.90 4.73 4.14
FIP 4.66 4.25 4.00
WHIP 1.44 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.60 8.99 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.449 0.440 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 4.86 4.05
BP FIP 4.76 4.57 3.92
BP WHIP 1.42 1.50
BP K/9 8.68 9.05
BP Quality* 55.3 58.0 44.8
BP IP 271.7 255.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (34 pitches yesterday)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Drew Pomeranz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Suter (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9789 (Temp: 0.9998 | Wind: 0.9791)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.5 - LAA 4.5
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.5 - LAA 4.6
Win Probability: HOU 49.0% - LAA 51.0%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +104 / LAA -104
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.4%
Under 8.5: 48.6%
HOU -1.5: 33.6%
LAA +1.5: 66.5%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 0.849 / LAA 0.831
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.234 / LAA 1.295
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.0 - LAA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.0 - LAA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 48.6% - LAA 51.4% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +106 / LAA -106
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML -102 +104 -1.5%
LAA ML -116 -104 -2.7%
HOU -1.5 +164 +198 -4.3%
LAA +1.5 -200 -198 -0.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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