2026-06-11
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-11
Games: 8 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hunter Dobbins Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 4.09 ERA: 2.5
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 6.73 K/9: 10.25
BB/9: 2.58 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 3.73 FIP: 2.68
IP: 13.0 IP: 36.0
xERA: 3.93 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL NYM Lg Avg
Record 37-28 29-38
R/Game 4.52 3.99 4.46
RA/Game 4.34 4.27 4.46
OPS 0.714 0.654 0.714
wOBA 0.308 0.283 0.308
ERA 4.00 3.88 4.15
FIP 3.99 3.62 4.00
WHIP 1.33 1.28 1.31
K/9 7.73 9.11 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.519 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.99 3.36 4.08
BP FIP 3.83 3.54 3.94
BP WHIP 1.34 1.21
BP K/9 8.20 9.10
BP Quality* 45.9 44.1 45.1
BP IP 241.3 291.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cionel Pérez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Peterson (63 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jonathan Pintaro (46 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: José Fermín, Pedro Pagés
José Fermín LF OPS: 0.794 (60 AB)
Pedro Pagés C OPS: 0.635 (361 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.3% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Mark Vientos, Eric Wagaman, Luis Torrens, Vidal Bruján
Mark Vientos 1B OPS: 0.702 (424 AB)
Eric Wagaman 1B OPS: 0.674 (476 AB)
Luis Torrens C OPS: 0.629 (261 AB)
Vidal Bruján SS OPS: 0.615 (87 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0162 (Temp: 1.0365 | Wind: 0.9805)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.2 - NYM 3.8
Simulated Avg: STL 3.2 - NYM 3.9
Win Probability: STL 42.8% - NYM 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: STL +134 / NYM -134
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 9.0: 22.1%
Under 9.0: 69.4%
STL +1.5: 62.0%
NYM -1.5: 38.0%
Pitcher Adj: STL 0.973 / NYM 0.628
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.018 / NYM 0.978
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 1.5 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.5 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: STL 37.7% - NYM 62.3% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +165 / NYM -165
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +124 +134 -1.9%
NYM ML -146 -134 -2.1%
STL +1.5 -176 -163 -1.7%
NYM -1.5 +146 +163 -2.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -30.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +17.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00748
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 5.36 ERA: 4.23
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.66 K/9: 6.76
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 3.84 FIP: 4.57
IP: 30.3 IP: 66.0
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Zebby Matthews)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
Record 31-38 28-40
R/Game 4.61 4.03 4.46
RA/Game 5.04 4.32 4.46
OPS 0.710 0.701 0.714
wOBA 0.309 0.306 0.308
ERA 4.68 4.03 4.15
FIP 4.01 3.86 4.00
WHIP 1.38 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.30 8.25 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.97 4.20 4.08
BP FIP 4.07 4.11 3.94
BP WHIP 1.52 1.39
BP K/9 8.16 8.43
BP Quality* 56.4 48.3 45.1
BP IP 253.7 257.3
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Travis Adams (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (30 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luke Keaschall, Alex Jackson
Luke Keaschall 2B OPS: 0.827 (182 AB)
Alex Jackson C OPS: 0.763 (91 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones, Wenceel Pérez
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Wenceel Pérez RF OPS: 0.738 (344 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9946 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9819)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.5 - DET 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.5 - DET 4.4
Win Probability: MIN 51.4% - DET 48.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -106 / DET +106
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.5: 40.2%
Under 9.5: 59.8%
MIN +1.5: 67.4%
DET -1.5: 32.6%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.087 / DET 1.089
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.251 / DET 1.071
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.6 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.6 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIN 55.1% - DET 44.9% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -123 / DET +123
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +110 -106 +3.8%
DET ML -130 +106 -7.9%
MIN +1.5 -196 -207 +1.2%
DET -1.5 +162 +207 -5.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.88%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00749
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Tyler Phillips
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 2.74
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 7.47 K/9: 6.11
BB/9: 2.78 BB/9: 2.88
FIP: 4.36 FIP: 4.0
IP: 58.3 IP: 43.3
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Tyler Phillips)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI MIA Lg Avg
Record 34-33 33-35
R/Game 4.31 4.32 4.46
RA/Game 4.64 4.44 4.46
OPS 0.696 0.707 0.714
wOBA 0.299 0.307 0.308
ERA 4.30 4.18 4.15
FIP 4.28 3.78 4.00
WHIP 1.28 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.13 8.71 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.25 3.58 4.08
BP FIP 3.84 3.50 3.94
BP WHIP 1.24 1.23
BP K/9 7.80 9.55
BP Quality* 44.5 43.6 45.1
BP IP 218.0 248.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: William Kempner (36 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Heriberto Hernández, Connor Norby, Christopher Morel
Heriberto Hernández LF OPS: 0.785 (256 AB)
Connor Norby 1B OPS: 0.689 (311 AB)
Christopher Morel 1B OPS: 0.685 (278 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0201 (Temp: 1.0219 | Wind: 0.9982)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 3.6 - MIA 4.0
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.6 - MIA 4.0
Win Probability: ARI 45.5% - MIA 54.5%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +120 / MIA -120
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 36.1%
Under 8.5: 63.9%
ARI -1.5: 28.3%
MIA +1.5: 71.7%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.021 / MIA 0.859
Bullpen Adj: ARI 0.987 / MIA 0.967
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 1.9 - MIA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.9 - MIA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 44.4% - MIA 55.6% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +125 / MIA -125
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -102 +120 -5.0%
MIA ML -116 -120 +0.8%
ARI -1.5 +155 +254 -10.9%
MIA +1.5 -188 -254 +6.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -16.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +11.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00750
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | June 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kumar Rocker Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 5.05 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.64 K/9: 6.89
BB/9: 3.41 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 4.47 FIP: 3.66
IP: 61.0 IP: 81.0
xERA: 5.73 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.364 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: KC (Michael Wacha)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX KC Lg Avg
Record 33-34 28-40
R/Game 4.04 3.93 4.46
RA/Game 3.84 4.63 4.46
OPS 0.701 0.694 0.714
wOBA 0.305 0.300 0.308
ERA 3.68 4.38 4.15
FIP 3.90 4.33 4.00
WHIP 1.22 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.53 8.31 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.524 0.425 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.18 4.96 4.08
BP FIP 3.79 4.84 3.94
BP WHIP 1.21 1.56
BP K/9 7.55 8.60
BP Quality* 40.6 63.0 45.1
BP IP 232.3 230.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Alex Lange (B2B, 32 pitches)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Black (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Maikel Garcia, Starling Marte, Salvador Perez, Tyler Tolbert
Maikel Garcia 3B OPS: 0.800 (595 AB)
Starling Marte RF OPS: 0.745 (293 AB)
Salvador Perez C OPS: 0.730 (597 AB)
Tyler Tolbert 2B OPS: 0.701 (50 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 19 mph (gusts 30 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), strong crosswind (19 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0071 (Temp: 1.0243 | Wind: 0.9832)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 4.4 - KC 4.0
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.4 - KC 4.0
Win Probability: TEX 54.0% - KC 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -117 / KC +117
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 10.5: 26.5%
Under 10.5: 73.5%
TEX -1.5: 37.5%
KC +1.5: 62.5%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 1.218 / KC 0.927
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.900 / KC 1.397
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.1 - KC 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.0 - KC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 43.1% - KC 56.9% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +132 / KC -132
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +100 -117 +4.0%
KC ML -118 +117 -8.1%
TEX -1.5 +152 +167 -2.2%
KC +1.5 -184 -167 -2.3%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -25.9%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +21.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 21.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00751
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Edward Cabrera Home: Ryan Feltner
ERA: 3.99 ERA: 4.64
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 9.33 K/9: 7.23
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 3.97 FIP: 4.41
IP: 57.7 IP: 32.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Edward Cabrera)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC COL Lg Avg
Record 34-34 26-42
R/Game 4.53 4.32 4.46
RA/Game 4.56 5.71 4.46
OPS 0.720 0.710 0.714
wOBA 0.313 0.308 0.308
ERA 4.33 5.51 4.15
FIP 4.46 4.58 4.00
WHIP 1.25 1.51 1.31
K/9 8.09 7.40 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.497 0.376 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 5.19 4.08
BP FIP 4.27 4.12 3.94
BP WHIP 1.25 1.47
BP K/9 7.89 8.33
BP Quality* 44.2 53.6 45.1
BP IP 254.3 303.7
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0394 (Temp: 1.0062 | Wind: 1.0330)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 5.7 - COL 5.1
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.7 - COL 5.1
Win Probability: CHC 54.7% - COL 45.3%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -121 / COL +121
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 11.0: 39.6%
Under 11.0: 52.0%
CHC -1.5: 41.0%
COL +1.5: 59.0%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 0.964 / COL 0.984
Bullpen Adj: CHC 0.980 / COL 1.188
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.9 - COL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.9 - COL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CHC 52.0% - COL 48.0% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -108 / COL +108
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -152 -121 -5.6%
COL ML +128 +121 +1.4%
CHC -1.5 +102 +144 -8.5%
COL +1.5 -122 -144 +4.1%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Justin Wrobleski Home: Mitch Keller
ERA: 3.83 ERA: 4.42
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.98 K/9: 7.33
BB/9: 2.17 BB/9: 2.69
FIP: 2.88 FIP: 3.67
IP: 68.7 IP: 73.0
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Justin Wrobleski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PIT Lg Avg
Record 43-25 35-33
R/Game 5.37 5.07 4.46
RA/Game 3.29 4.75 4.46
OPS 0.789 0.737 0.714
wOBA 0.337 0.320 0.308
ERA 3.24 4.16 4.15
FIP 3.46 3.61 4.00
WHIP 1.08 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.12 9.12 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.710 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.83 4.45 4.08
BP FIP 3.42 4.00 3.94
BP WHIP 1.21 1.37
BP K/9 9.75 9.35
BP Quality* 40.6 48.3 45.1
BP IP 211.3 264.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (76 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 29 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9676 (Temp: 1.0110 | Wind: 0.9571)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 5.1 - PIT 4.1
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.1 - PIT 4.1
Win Probability: LAD 59.3% - PIT 40.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -146 / PIT +146
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.5: 43.2%
Under 9.5: 56.8%
LAD -1.5: 43.6%
PIT +1.5: 56.4%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.798 / PIT 0.995
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.900 / PIT 1.071
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.8 - PIT 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.8 - PIT 2.1
F5 Win Prob: LAD 60.5% - PIT 39.5% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -153 / PIT +153
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -166 -146 -3.1%
PIT ML +140 +146 -1.0%
LAD -1.5 -104 +129 -7.4%
PIT +1.5 -115 -129 +2.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -9.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +4.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryan Woo Home: Kyle Bradish
ERA: 3.24 ERA: 3.04
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 9.26 K/9: 11.59
BB/9: 1.7 BB/9: 3.5
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 3.02
IP: 77.0 IP: 69.3
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BAL Lg Avg
Record 36-33 32-37
R/Game 4.23 4.70 4.46
RA/Game 3.83 5.13 4.46
OPS 0.713 0.722 0.714
wOBA 0.310 0.313 0.308
ERA 3.54 4.56 4.15
FIP 3.43 4.18 4.00
WHIP 1.19 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.69 7.79 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.546 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.33 4.69 4.08
BP FIP 3.42 3.83 3.94
BP WHIP 1.33 1.35
BP K/9 8.52 8.46
BP Quality* 41.6 46.6 45.1
BP IP 224.0 257.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Domingo Gonzalez (39 pitches yesterday)
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 28%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0186 (Temp: 1.0295 | Wind: 0.9894)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.7 - BAL 4.1
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.7 - BAL 4.1
Win Probability: SEA 45.2% - BAL 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +121 / BAL -121
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 38.2%
Under 8.5: 61.8%
SEA -1.5: 28.4%
BAL +1.5: 71.6%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.762 / BAL 0.735
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.922 / BAL 1.033
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.8 - BAL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.8 - BAL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 43.8% - BAL 56.2% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +128 / BAL -128
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -116 +121 -8.5%
BAL ML -102 -121 +4.3%
SEA -1.5 +142 +252 -12.9%
BAL +1.5 -172 -252 +8.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -14.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.4%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 2 (2 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.4%
Fair ML: -162 | Kelly: 4.94%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00752
[STANDARD EDGE] Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (Run Line) [-172]
Model: 71.6% | Market: 63.2% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -252 | Kelly: 5.70%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00753
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Martín Pérez Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL CWS Lg Avg
Record 45-23 36-31
R/Game 5.15 4.75 4.46
RA/Game 3.47 4.60 4.46
OPS 0.751 0.739 0.714
wOBA 0.322 0.317 0.308
ERA 3.20 4.28 4.15
FIP 3.71 4.13 4.00
WHIP 1.17 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.81 8.19 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.673 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.93 4.29 4.08
BP FIP 3.37 4.28 3.94
BP WHIP 1.10 1.34
BP K/9 8.97 8.34
BP Quality* 36.5 49.0 45.1
BP IP 239.7 300.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 60%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind in (12 mph) | Rain likely (60%)
Weather Factor: 0.9640 (Temp: 0.9982 | Wind: 0.9658)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 5.0 - CWS 4.4
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.0 - CWS 4.4
Win Probability: ATL 55.5% - CWS 44.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -125 / CWS +125
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.2%
Under 8.5: 44.8%
ATL -1.5: 40.1%
CWS +1.5: 59.9%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.048 / CWS 1.000
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.809 / CWS 1.086
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.7 - CWS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.7 - CWS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ATL 50.8% - CWS 49.2% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -103 / CWS +103
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -118 -125 +1.4%
CWS ML +100 +125 -5.5%
ATL -1.5 +142 +149 -1.2%
CWS +1.5 -172 -149 -3.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================