2026-06-12
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-12
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Braxton Ashcraft
ERA: 4.95 ERA: 2.92
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 6.97 K/9: 9.37
BB/9: 2.65 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 4.0 FIP: 2.75
IP: 89.3 IP: 79.7
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA PIT Lg Avg
Record 34-35 35-34
R/Game 4.29 5.09 4.47
RA/Game 4.38 4.80 4.46
OPS 0.705 0.741 0.715
wOBA 0.306 0.321 0.308
ERA 4.12 4.21 4.15
FIP 3.74 3.64 4.01
WHIP 1.26 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.78 9.09 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.491 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.53 4.44 4.07
BP FIP 3.44 4.00 3.94
BP WHIP 1.22 1.37
BP K/9 9.69 9.31
BP Quality* 46.0 54.3 45.0
BP IP 252.7 269.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Evan Sisk (B2B, 31 pitches)
TIRED: Brandan Bidois (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9947 (Temp: 1.0164 | Wind: 0.9787)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.8 - PIT 5.3
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.8 - PIT 5.3
Win Probability: MIA 35.3% - PIT 64.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +183 / PIT -183
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.0%
Under 8.5: 48.0%
MIA +1.5: 51.0%
PIT -1.5: 49.0%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.075 / PIT 0.730
Bullpen Adj: MIA 1.022 / PIT 1.207
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.7 - PIT 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.7 - PIT 3.0
F5 Win Prob: MIA 28.4% - PIT 71.6% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +252 / PIT -252
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +122 +183 -9.7%
PIT ML -144 -183 +5.7%
MIA +1.5 -176 -104 -12.7%
PIT -1.5 +146 +104 +8.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line) [+146]
Model: 49.0% | Market: 40.7% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: +104 | Kelly: 3.51%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00754
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Miller Home: Zack Littell
ERA: 5.18 ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 7.63 K/9: 6.06
BB/9: 3.19 BB/9: 1.86
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 5.02
IP: 27.0 IP: 64.3
xERA: 5.27 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA WSH Lg Avg
Record 36-34 35-34
R/Game 4.24 5.39 4.47
RA/Game 3.87 5.29 4.46
OPS 0.715 0.742 0.715
wOBA 0.310 0.318 0.308
ERA 3.59 4.66 4.15
FIP 3.46 4.64 4.01
WHIP 1.20 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.68 7.77 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.542 0.509 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.29 4.83 4.07
BP FIP 3.41 4.79 3.94
BP WHIP 1.33 1.44
BP K/9 8.52 7.09
BP Quality* 43.0 54.1 45.0
BP IP 227.0 326.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nick Davila (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 33%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0384 (Temp: 1.0330 | Wind: 1.0052)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.8 - WSH 5.5
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.8 - WSH 5.5
Win Probability: SEA 43.5% - WSH 56.5%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +130 / WSH -130
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 9.5: 53.7%
Under 9.5: 46.3%
SEA -1.5: 29.9%
WSH +1.5: 70.1%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 1.018 / WSH 1.096
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.956 / WSH 1.202
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.6 - WSH 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.6 - WSH 3.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 42.6% - WSH 57.4% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +135 / WSH -135
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -146 +130 -15.8%
WSH ML +124 -130 +11.8%
SEA -1.5 +114 +234 -16.8%
WSH +1.5 -137 -234 +12.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +1.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +124 | Edge: 11.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00755
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -137 | Edge: 12.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00756
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Griffin Canning Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 4.28 ERA: 4.58
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.42 K/9: 8.85
BB/9: 4.24 BB/9: 3.48
FIP: 4.21 FIP: 4.07
IP: 32.7 IP: 77.0
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD BAL Lg Avg
Record 35-32 33-37
R/Game 3.81 4.73 4.47
RA/Game 4.03 5.13 4.46
OPS 0.651 0.723 0.715
wOBA 0.282 0.313 0.308
ERA 3.90 4.57 4.15
FIP 3.86 4.22 4.01
WHIP 1.28 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.49 7.81 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.14 4.60 4.07
BP FIP 3.24 3.79 3.94
BP WHIP 1.20 1.34
BP K/9 9.54 8.44
BP Quality* 37.4 52.1 45.0
BP IP 269.0 262.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0375 (Temp: 1.0227 | Wind: 1.0145)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.2 - BAL 4.9
Simulated Avg: SD 4.2 - BAL 4.9
Win Probability: SD 42.5% - BAL 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: SD +135 / BAL -135
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.0: 42.0%
Under 9.0: 48.1%
SD +1.5: 58.9%
BAL -1.5: 41.1%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.060 / BAL 0.995
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.831 / BAL 1.158
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - BAL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - BAL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: SD 37.7% - BAL 62.3% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +165 / BAL -165
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +110 +135 -5.1%
BAL ML -130 -135 +1.0%
SD +1.5 -184 -143 -5.9%
BAL -1.5 +152 +143 +1.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jack Flaherty Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 4.91 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 10.73 K/9: 7.74
BB/9: 3.88 BB/9: 2.73
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 4.32
IP: 62.7 IP: 77.0
xERA: 3.99 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: DET (Jack Flaherty)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
Record 29-40 37-33
R/Game 4.13 4.04 4.47
RA/Game 4.26 4.13 4.46
OPS 0.711 0.686 0.715
wOBA 0.309 0.299 0.308
ERA 3.97 3.82 4.15
FIP 3.83 3.87 4.01
WHIP 1.28 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.23 9.27 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.15 3.77 4.07
BP FIP 4.07 3.48 3.94
BP WHIP 1.38 1.29
BP K/9 8.45 10.32
BP Quality* 50.8 42.6 45.0
BP IP 260.0 236.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beau Brieske (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9956 (Temp: 1.0044 | Wind: 0.9913)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.8 - CLE 4.2
Simulated Avg: DET 3.8 - CLE 4.2
Win Probability: DET 45.6% - CLE 54.4%
Fair Moneyline: DET +119 / CLE -119
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 39.7%
Under 8.5: 60.3%
DET -1.5: 29.0%
CLE +1.5: 71.0%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.997 / CLE 0.975
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.129 / CLE 0.947
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - CLE 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - CLE 2.2
F5 Win Prob: DET 49.2% - CLE 50.8% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +103 / CLE -103
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML +102 +119 -3.9%
CLE ML -120 -119 -0.1%
DET -1.5 +168 +244 -8.3%
CLE +1.5 -205 -244 +3.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00757
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jack Leiter Home: Sonny Gray
ERA: 4.17 ERA: 3.94
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 9.1 K/9: 9.07
BB/9: 3.96 BB/9: 2.1
FIP: 4.12 FIP: 3.45
IP: 71.0 IP: 56.3
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX BOS Lg Avg
Record 34-34 27-39
R/Game 4.04 3.91 4.47
RA/Game 3.81 4.12 4.46
OPS 0.702 0.688 0.715
wOBA 0.305 0.299 0.308
ERA 3.66 3.93 4.15
FIP 3.88 3.86 4.01
WHIP 1.22 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.51 8.59 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.12 3.20 4.07
BP FIP 3.76 3.70 3.94
BP WHIP 1.20 1.20
BP K/9 7.57 8.98
BP Quality* 44.6 39.8 45.0
BP IP 236.7 250.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0284 (Temp: 1.0048 | Wind: 1.0235)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.8 - BOS 4.3
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.8 - BOS 4.4
Win Probability: TEX 43.9% - BOS 56.1%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +128 / BOS -128
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 42.1%
Under 8.5: 57.9%
TEX +1.5: 61.5%
BOS -1.5: 38.5%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 1.024 / BOS 0.897
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.991 / BOS 0.884
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.1 - BOS 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.2 - BOS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TEX 45.1% - BOS 54.9% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +122 / BOS -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +110 +128 -3.8%
BOS ML -130 -128 -0.4%
TEX +1.5 -200 -159 -5.2%
BOS -1.5 +162 +159 +0.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -10.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 4.09 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 7.66 K/9: 8.61
BB/9: 3.35 BB/9: 2.14
FIP: 4.27 FIP: 3.96
IP: 78.7 IP: 32.7
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Nick Lodolo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI CIN Lg Avg
Record 34-34 32-35
R/Game 4.25 4.27 4.47
RA/Game 4.60 5.07 4.46
OPS 0.692 0.708 0.715
wOBA 0.298 0.307 0.308
ERA 4.28 4.79 4.15
FIP 4.26 4.91 4.01
WHIP 1.28 1.47 1.31
K/9 7.10 7.92 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.422 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 5.13 4.07
BP FIP 3.82 5.03 3.94
BP WHIP 1.24 1.56
BP K/9 7.85 8.76
BP Quality* 45.8 60.1 45.0
BP IP 220.0 258.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zach Maxwell (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0247 (Temp: 1.0091 | Wind: 1.0154)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.9 - CIN 4.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.9 - CIN 4.9
Win Probability: ARI 50.0% - CIN 50.0%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -100 / CIN +100
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.5: 48.7%
Under 9.5: 51.3%
ARI -1.5: 35.2%
CIN +1.5: 64.8%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.038 / CIN 0.898
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.018 / CIN 1.336
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.3 - CIN 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.3 - CIN 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ARI 43.2% - CIN 56.8% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +131 / CIN -131
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -102 -100 -0.5%
CIN ML -116 +100 -3.7%
ARI -1.5 +146 +184 -5.5%
CIN +1.5 -178 -184 +0.8%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -3.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -1.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Spencer Strider Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 4.36 ERA: 2.77
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 9.68 K/9: 10.51
BB/9: 3.88 BB/9: 3.13
FIP: 4.34 FIP: 3.03
IP: 36.0 IP: 72.3
xERA: 4.93 xERA: 3.51
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
Record 45-23 30-38
R/Game 5.15 4.00 4.47
RA/Game 3.47 4.26 4.46
OPS 0.751 0.658 0.715
wOBA 0.322 0.284 0.308
ERA 3.20 3.88 4.15
FIP 3.71 3.66 4.01
WHIP 1.17 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.81 9.11 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.673 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.93 3.31 4.07
BP FIP 3.37 3.52 3.94
BP WHIP 1.10 1.20
BP K/9 8.97 9.06
BP Quality* 36.5 40.8 45.0
BP IP 239.7 296.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cionel Pérez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 21%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0116 (Temp: 1.0245 | Wind: 0.9875)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.0 - NYM 3.9
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.1 - NYM 3.9
Win Probability: ATL 51.2% - NYM 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -105 / NYM +105
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 39.8%
Under 8.0: 49.5%
ATL +1.5: 68.7%
NYM -1.5: 31.3%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.097 / NYM 0.755
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.811 / NYM 0.907
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.1 - NYM 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.1 - NYM 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATL 44.4% - NYM 55.6% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +125 / NYM -125
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +108 -105 +3.1%
NYM ML -126 +105 -7.0%
ATL +1.5 -205 -220 +1.5%
NYM -1.5 +168 +220 -6.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Weathers Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
Record 41-26 33-36
R/Game 5.10 4.07 4.47
RA/Game 3.57 4.33 4.46
OPS 0.763 0.699 0.715
wOBA 0.327 0.301 0.308
ERA 3.27 4.07 4.15
FIP 3.45 3.70 4.01
WHIP 1.17 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.69 9.09 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.658 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.41 3.86 4.07
BP FIP 3.53 3.59 3.94
BP WHIP 1.27 1.25
BP K/9 8.54 9.11
BP Quality* 40.4 44.8 45.0
BP IP 226.7 296.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0028 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 0.9991)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.0 - TOR 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.0 - TOR 4.0
Win Probability: NYY 59.7% - TOR 40.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -148 / TOR +148
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 50.6%
Under 8.0: 39.1%
NYY -1.5: 43.7%
TOR +1.5: 56.3%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.991 / TOR 1.000
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.898 / TOR 0.996
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.8 - TOR 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.8 - TOR 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYY 58.9% - TOR 41.1% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -143 / TOR +143
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -104 -148 +8.7%
TOR ML -112 +148 -12.5%
NYY -1.5 +155 +129 +4.5%
TOR +1.5 -188 -129 -9.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Roki Sasaki Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 4.32 ERA: 4.4
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 7.68 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 4.76 BB/9: 3.82
FIP: 5.16 FIP: 4.99
IP: 58.0 IP: 61.3
xERA: 5.66 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.362 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CWS Lg Avg
Record 44-25 36-31
R/Game 5.41 4.75 4.47
RA/Game 3.33 4.60 4.46
OPS 0.789 0.739 0.715
wOBA 0.337 0.317 0.308
ERA 3.28 4.28 4.15
FIP 3.48 4.13 4.01
WHIP 1.09 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.13 8.19 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.708 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 4.29 4.07
BP FIP 3.34 4.28 3.94
BP WHIP 1.21 1.34
BP K/9 9.93 8.34
BP Quality* 46.2 49.0 45.0
BP IP 215.7 300.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Will Klein (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9873 (Temp: 1.0018 | Wind: 0.9855)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.9 - CWS 5.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.8 - CWS 5.5
Win Probability: LAD 52.5% - CWS 47.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -111 / CWS +111
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 9.0: 62.0%
Under 9.0: 29.3%
LAD -1.5: 39.4%
CWS +1.5: 60.7%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 1.235 / CWS 1.146
Bullpen Adj: LAD 1.027 / CWS 1.089
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.4 - CWS 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.4 - CWS 3.2
F5 Win Prob: LAD 52.1% - CWS 47.9% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -109 / CWS +109
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -152 -111 -7.8%
CWS ML +128 +111 +3.6%
LAD -1.5 +106 +154 -9.2%
CWS +1.5 -128 -154 +4.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +9.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -23.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -163 | Kelly: 5.02%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00758
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Painter Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 6.21 ERA: 3.3
WHIP: 1.57 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 7.29 K/9: 12.42
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 3.6
FIP: 4.93 FIP: 2.78
IP: 58.0 IP: 78.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIL Lg Avg
Record 37-31 41-25
R/Game 4.06 5.33 4.47
RA/Game 4.26 3.77 4.46
OPS 0.687 0.729 0.715
wOBA 0.297 0.314 0.308
ERA 4.01 3.47 4.15
FIP 3.39 3.45 4.01
WHIP 1.29 1.22 1.31
K/9 9.51 9.73 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.653 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.79 3.43 4.07
BP FIP 3.13 3.48 3.94
BP WHIP 1.29 1.28
BP K/9 9.92 9.19
BP Quality* 42.6 40.2 45.0
BP IP 235.0 267.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9962 (Temp: 1.0044 | Wind: 0.9919)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.2 - MIL 6.2
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.2 - MIL 6.2
Win Probability: PHI 23.0% - MIL 77.0%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +334 / MIL -334
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 7.5: 64.5%
Under 7.5: 35.5%
PHI +1.5: 36.9%
MIL -1.5: 63.1%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 1.311 / MIL 0.754
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.947 / MIL 0.893
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 1.7 - MIL 3.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.7 - MIL 3.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 19.7% - MIL 80.3% (Tie: 12.2%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +408 / MIL -408
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML +205 +334 -9.8%
MIL ML -250 -334 +5.6%
PHI +1.5 -111 +171 -15.7%
MIL -1.5 -108 -171 +11.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -16.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00759
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -108 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00760
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tatsuya Imai Home: Luinder Avila
ERA: 5.24 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.6
K/9: 9.44 K/9: 8.04
BB/9: 6.03 BB/9: 5.46
FIP: 4.91 FIP: 3.96
IP: 34.3 IP: 31.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 2.09
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.226
Pitcher Edge: KC (Luinder Avila)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU KC Lg Avg
Record 31-39 28-41
R/Game 4.50 3.90 4.47
RA/Game 5.04 4.62 4.46
OPS 0.725 0.691 0.715
wOBA 0.310 0.299 0.308
ERA 4.85 4.37 4.15
FIP 4.67 4.32 4.01
WHIP 1.44 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.57 8.27 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.423 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.82 4.92 4.07
BP FIP 4.75 4.79 3.94
BP WHIP 1.42 1.55
BP K/9 8.63 8.68
BP Quality* 52.1 61.0 45.0
BP IP 274.3 232.3
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beck Way (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9983 (Temp: 1.0153 | Wind: 0.9832)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.5 - KC 4.7
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.5 - KC 4.7
Win Probability: HOU 47.9% - KC 52.1%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +109 / KC -109
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.5: 42.6%
Under 9.5: 57.4%
HOU -1.5: 32.7%
KC +1.5: 67.3%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.215 / KC 0.800
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.158 / KC 1.356
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.0 - KC 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.0 - KC 2.6
F5 Win Prob: HOU 38.6% - KC 61.4% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +159 / KC -159
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -116 +109 -5.8%
KC ML -102 -109 +1.6%
HOU -1.5 +138 +206 -9.4%
KC +1.5 -166 -206 +4.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -9.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +5.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Leahy Home: Joe Ryan
ERA: 3.53 ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 7.83 K/9: 10.09
BB/9: 3.13 BB/9: 1.99
FIP: 3.5 FIP: 3.18
IP: 59.0 IP: 76.3
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL MIN Lg Avg
Record 37-29 31-39
R/Game 4.52 4.54 4.47
RA/Game 4.35 5.13 4.46
OPS 0.715 0.705 0.715
wOBA 0.308 0.307 0.308
ERA 4.02 4.78 4.15
FIP 4.01 4.12 4.01
WHIP 1.33 1.39 1.31
K/9 7.76 8.26 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.00 5.07 4.07
BP FIP 3.84 4.23 3.94
BP WHIP 1.33 1.53
BP K/9 8.23 8.13
BP Quality* 48.9 54.6 45.0
BP IP 245.0 255.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cody Laweryson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9912 (Temp: 1.0066 | Wind: 0.9847)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.3 - MIN 4.6
Simulated Avg: STL 4.3 - MIN 4.6
Win Probability: STL 46.7% - MIN 53.3%
Fair Moneyline: STL +114 / MIN -114
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 39.3%
Under 9.0: 50.9%
STL +1.5: 63.2%
MIN -1.5: 36.8%
Pitcher Adj: STL 0.923 / MIN 0.793
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.087 / MIN 1.213
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.0 - MIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.0 - MIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: STL 42.7% - MIN 57.3% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +134 / MIN -134
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +116 +114 +0.4%
MIN ML -136 -114 -4.3%
STL +1.5 -178 -172 -0.9%
MIN -1.5 +146 +172 -3.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -13.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -1.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane McClanahan Home: Sam Aldegheri
ERA: 2.85 ERA: 2.25
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.85 K/9: 6.0
BB/9: 3.15 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 2.83 FIP: 4.1
IP: 60.0 IP: 12.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 7.3
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.402
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB LAA Lg Avg
Record 40-25 27-42
R/Game 4.57 4.46 4.47
RA/Game 4.38 5.07 4.46
OPS 0.722 0.701 0.715
wOBA 0.312 0.304 0.308
ERA 3.91 4.68 4.15
FIP 4.10 4.23 4.01
WHIP 1.22 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.83 9.04 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.519 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.63 4.84 4.07
BP FIP 4.67 4.58 3.94
BP WHIP 1.34 1.50
BP K/9 7.94 9.08
BP Quality* 50.3 52.0 45.0
BP IP 260.7 258.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9882 (Temp: 1.0078 | Wind: 0.9805)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.5 - LAA 3.9
Simulated Avg: TB 4.5 - LAA 3.9
Win Probability: TB 55.4% - LAA 44.6%
Fair Moneyline: TB -124 / LAA +124
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 9.0: 34.9%
Under 9.0: 55.2%
TB -1.5: 39.0%
LAA +1.5: 61.1%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.684 / LAA 0.893
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.118 / LAA 1.156
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.2 - LAA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.2 - LAA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TB 60.2% - LAA 39.8% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -152 / LAA +152
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -168 -124 -7.3%
LAA ML +142 +124 +3.3%
TB -1.5 -104 +157 -12.0%
LAA +1.5 -115 -157 +7.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -17.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +2.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line) [-115]
Model: 61.1% | Market: 53.5% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.06%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00761
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Gage Jump
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATH Lg Avg
Record 26-43 33-35
R/Game 4.30 4.38 4.47
RA/Game 5.75 4.99 4.46
OPS 0.715 0.735 0.715
wOBA 0.310 0.315 0.308
ERA 5.56 4.62 4.15
FIP 4.61 4.52 4.01
WHIP 1.51 1.42 1.31
K/9 7.41 8.27 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.370 0.441 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.20 4.47 4.07
BP FIP 4.16 3.71 3.94
BP WHIP 1.46 1.37
BP K/9 8.35 8.91
BP Quality* 55.2 47.0 45.0
BP IP 308.3 267.7
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blas Castaño (46 pitches yesterday)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9910 (Temp: 0.9861 | Wind: 1.0050)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.1 - ATH 5.0
Simulated Avg: COL 4.1 - ATH 5.0
Win Probability: COL 41.5% - ATH 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: COL +141 / ATH -141
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 13.5: 14.0%
Under 13.5: 86.0%
COL +1.5: 57.8%
ATH -1.5: 42.2%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.000 / ATH 0.904
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.227 / ATH 1.044
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.2 - ATH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.2 - ATH 2.5
F5 Win Prob: COL 44.5% - ATH 55.5% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +124 / ATH -124
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +168 +141 +4.2%
ATH ML -200 -141 -8.2%
COL +1.5 -106 -137 +6.3%
ATH -1.5 -113 +137 -10.8%
O 13.5 -110 N/A -38.4%
U 13.5 -110 N/A +33.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 13.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 33.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00762
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Javier Assad Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 3.74 ERA: 3.87
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 5.56 K/9: 9.11
BB/9: 2.86 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 3.47
IP: 32.3 IP: 69.7
xERA: 4.86 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SF Lg Avg
Record 35-34 28-41
R/Game 4.59 4.19 4.47
RA/Game 4.54 4.93 4.46
OPS 0.722 0.728 0.715
wOBA 0.314 0.310 0.308
ERA 4.31 4.55 4.15
FIP 4.48 4.18 4.01
WHIP 1.25 1.41 1.31
K/9 8.13 8.00 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.426 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.56 4.43 4.07
BP FIP 4.26 4.33 3.94
BP WHIP 1.26 1.48
BP K/9 7.99 7.59
BP Quality* 48.7 49.6 45.0
BP IP 258.0 239.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9647 (Temp: 0.9826 | Wind: 0.9818)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.1 - SF 4.1
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.1 - SF 4.1
Win Probability: CHC 49.8% - SF 50.2%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +101 / SF -101
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 42.6%
Under 8.5: 57.4%
CHC -1.5: 33.3%
SF +1.5: 66.7%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.012 / SF 0.925
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.082 / SF 1.102
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.1 - SF 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.1 - SF 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CHC 49.0% - SF 50.9% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +104 / SF -104
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML +100 +101 -0.2%
SF ML -118 -101 -4.0%
CHC -1.5 +168 +200 -4.0%
SF +1.5 -205 -200 -0.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -9.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================