2026-06-13
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-13
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 4.31 ERA: 5.15
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 7.63 K/9: 10.1
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 3.71
FIP: 4.16 FIP: 3.28
IP: 66.3 IP: 43.7
xERA: 4.86 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Connor Prielipp)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL MIN Lg Avg
Record 37-30 32-39
R/Game 4.57 4.61 4.48
RA/Game 4.42 5.17 4.47
OPS 0.717 0.712 0.715
wOBA 0.308 0.309 0.309
ERA 4.10 4.81 4.17
FIP 4.08 4.11 4.02
WHIP 1.34 1.40 1.31
K/9 7.75 8.30 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 5.15 4.07
BP FIP 4.01 4.23 3.94
BP WHIP 1.33 1.54
BP K/9 8.17 8.14
BP Quality* 50.2 57.9 45.0
BP IP 248.0 258.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), strong crosswind (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0181 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 1.0172)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 5.0 - MIN 5.2
Simulated Avg: STL 5.0 - MIN 5.2
Win Probability: STL 48.0% - MIN 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL +108 / MIN -108
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.1%
Under 9.0: 37.3%
STL -1.5: 33.8%
MIN +1.5: 66.2%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.065 / MIN 0.966
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.116 / MIN 1.287
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.5 - MIN 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.5 - MIN 2.8
F5 Win Prob: STL 44.6% - MIN 55.4% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +124 / MIN -124
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML -110 +108 -4.3%
MIN ML -106 -108 +0.5%
STL -1.5 +150 +196 -6.2%
MIN +1.5 -182 -196 +1.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +0.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -15.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 2.52 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 10.12 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 2.91 BB/9: 2.03
FIP: 2.93 FIP: 3.24
IP: 82.0 IP: 80.0
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
Record 41-27 34-36
R/Game 5.10 4.13 4.48
RA/Game 3.63 4.34 4.47
OPS 0.763 0.702 0.715
wOBA 0.327 0.302 0.309
ERA 3.36 4.08 4.17
FIP 3.48 3.72 4.02
WHIP 1.18 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.70 9.08 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.651 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 3.81 4.07
BP FIP 3.51 3.56 3.94
BP WHIP 1.29 1.25
BP K/9 8.64 9.14
BP Quality* 42.0 46.0 45.0
BP IP 230.3 300.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9681 (Temp: 1.0121 | Wind: 0.9565)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.4 - TOR 3.4
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.4 - TOR 3.4
Win Probability: NYY 60.4% - TOR 39.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -152 / TOR +152
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 49.4%
Under 7.5: 50.6%
NYY -1.5: 42.9%
TOR +1.5: 57.1%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.776 / TOR 0.840
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.933 / TOR 1.022
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.3 - TOR 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.3 - TOR 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYY 60.1% - TOR 39.9% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -150 / TOR +150
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -118 -152 +6.3%
TOR ML +100 +152 -10.4%
NYY -1.5 +150 +133 +2.9%
TOR +1.5 -182 -133 -7.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Randy Vásquez Home: Trey Gibson
ERA: 3.76 ERA: 4.24
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 5.86 K/9: 2.65
BB/9: 3.17 BB/9: 4.24
FIP: 4.53 FIP: 5.45
IP: 69.3 IP: 17.0
xERA: 5.37 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: SD (Randy Vásquez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD BAL Lg Avg
Record 35-33 34-37
R/Game 3.79 4.76 4.48
RA/Game 4.07 5.10 4.47
OPS 0.650 0.727 0.715
wOBA 0.282 0.314 0.309
ERA 3.95 4.53 4.17
FIP 3.89 4.20 4.02
WHIP 1.29 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.54 7.78 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.11 4.53 4.07
BP FIP 3.23 3.76 3.94
BP WHIP 1.21 1.33
BP K/9 9.60 8.48
BP Quality* 38.8 50.1 45.0
BP IP 272.0 266.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0257 (Temp: 1.0276 | Wind: 0.9981)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.2 - BAL 5.1
Simulated Avg: SD 4.2 - BAL 5.1
Win Probability: SD 41.3% - BAL 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: SD +142 / BAL -142
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 10.0: 34.6%
Under 10.0: 56.2%
SD +1.5: 57.4%
BAL -1.5: 42.6%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.111 / BAL 1.059
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.862 / BAL 1.113
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.3 - BAL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.3 - BAL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: SD 38.2% - BAL 61.8% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +162 / BAL -162
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +108 +142 -6.7%
BAL ML -126 -142 +2.9%
SD +1.5 -194 -135 -8.6%
BAL -1.5 +160 +135 +4.2%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -17.7%
U 10.0 -110 N/A +3.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luis Castillo Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 4.1
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 8.36 K/9: 8.37
BB/9: 2.64 BB/9: 2.95
FIP: 3.8 FIP: 3.72
IP: 61.0 IP: 69.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA WSH Lg Avg
Record 37-34 35-35
R/Game 4.32 5.34 4.48
RA/Game 3.85 5.36 4.47
OPS 0.719 0.739 0.715
wOBA 0.311 0.316 0.309
ERA 3.57 4.74 4.17
FIP 3.47 4.68 4.02
WHIP 1.18 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.67 7.72 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.553 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.28 4.86 4.07
BP FIP 3.40 4.82 3.94
BP WHIP 1.32 1.44
BP K/9 8.53 7.04
BP Quality* 39.8 57.4 45.0
BP IP 228.0 333.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Paxton Schultz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gus Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley Cornelio (73 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0188 (Temp: 1.0282 | Wind: 0.9909)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.6 - WSH 5.0
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.6 - WSH 5.0
Win Probability: SEA 45.9% - WSH 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +118 / WSH -118
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 46.6%
Under 9.0: 43.5%
SEA -1.5: 31.2%
WSH +1.5: 68.8%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 0.946 / WSH 0.949
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.884 / WSH 1.276
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.2 - WSH 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.2 - WSH 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SEA 40.5% - WSH 59.5% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +147 / WSH -147
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +100 +118 -4.1%
WSH ML -118 -118 -0.1%
SEA -1.5 +162 +220 -6.9%
WSH +1.5 -196 -220 +2.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Lake Bachar Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 3.88 ERA: 4.33
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 9.55 K/9: 8.92
BB/9: 3.75 BB/9: 2.74
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 3.15
IP: 36.3 IP: 62.3
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Bubba Chandler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PIT Lg Avg
Record 35-35 35-35
R/Game 4.34 5.06 4.48
RA/Game 4.36 4.84 4.47
OPS 0.707 0.739 0.715
wOBA 0.307 0.321 0.309
ERA 4.11 4.26 4.17
FIP 3.75 3.66 4.02
WHIP 1.25 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.78 9.06 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.498 0.520 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 4.57 4.07
BP FIP 3.43 4.06 3.94
BP WHIP 1.22 1.38
BP K/9 9.72 9.27
BP Quality* 39.9 52.1 45.0
BP IP 253.7 273.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wilber Dotel (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Antwone Kelly (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9979 (Temp: 1.0220 | Wind: 0.9763)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.1 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.1 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: MIA 42.9% - PIT 57.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +133 / PIT -133
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 39.9%
Under 9.0: 49.9%
MIA +1.5: 59.2%
PIT -1.5: 40.8%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 0.998 / PIT 0.869
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.887 / PIT 1.158
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.0 - PIT 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.0 - PIT 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIA 37.8% - PIT 62.2% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +164 / PIT -164
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +112 +133 -4.3%
PIT ML -132 -133 +0.2%
MIA +1.5 -200 -145 -7.4%
PIT -1.5 +164 +145 +2.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Soroka Home: Rhett Lowder
ERA: 4.06 ERA: 5.01
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 9.25 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 5.01
FIP: 3.4 FIP: 3.9
IP: 74.0 IP: 41.3
xERA: 3.53 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Michael Soroka)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CIN Lg Avg
Record 35-34 32-36
R/Game 4.26 4.24 4.48
RA/Game 4.57 5.07 4.47
OPS 0.690 0.708 0.715
wOBA 0.297 0.306 0.309
ERA 4.23 4.74 4.17
FIP 4.28 4.89 4.02
WHIP 1.28 1.47 1.31
K/9 7.11 7.89 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.418 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 5.06 4.07
BP FIP 3.81 5.04 3.94
BP WHIP 1.23 1.56
BP K/9 7.83 8.67
BP Quality* 48.3 56.9 45.0
BP IP 226.3 261.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (36 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zach Maxwell (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0060 (Temp: 1.0255 | Wind: 0.9810)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 5.1 - CIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: ARI 5.1 - CIN 4.4
Win Probability: ARI 56.3% - CIN 43.7%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -129 / CIN +129
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.5: 46.2%
Under 9.5: 53.8%
ARI -1.5: 41.1%
CIN +1.5: 58.9%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 0.866 / CIN 1.042
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.073 / CIN 1.264
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.6 - CIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.6 - CIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 56.7% - CIN 43.3% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -131 / CIN +131
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -146 -129 -3.0%
CIN ML +124 +129 -1.0%
ARI -1.5 +112 +143 -6.1%
CIN +1.5 -134 -143 +1.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -6.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +1.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tarik Skubal Home: Joey Cantillo
ERA: 2.31 ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 0.9 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 10.75 K/9: 9.5
BB/9: 1.47 BB/9: 4.32
FIP: 2.28 FIP: 4.1
IP: 43.3 IP: 67.0
xERA: 2.71 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.258 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: DET (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
Record 29-41 38-33
R/Game 4.10 4.03 4.48
RA/Game 4.24 4.10 4.47
OPS 0.706 0.689 0.715
wOBA 0.307 0.299 0.309
ERA 3.97 3.79 4.17
FIP 3.81 3.88 4.02
WHIP 1.28 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.24 9.27 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.74 4.07
BP FIP 4.01 3.47 3.94
BP WHIP 1.38 1.28
BP K/9 8.52 10.27
BP Quality* 50.4 40.9 45.0
BP IP 265.0 238.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ty Madden (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beau Brieske (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0212 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 1.0011)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.7 - CLE 3.3
Simulated Avg: DET 3.7 - CLE 3.3
Win Probability: DET 54.3% - CLE 45.7%
Fair Moneyline: DET -119 / CLE +119
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 7.5: 39.1%
Under 7.5: 60.9%
DET -1.5: 35.4%
CLE +1.5: 64.6%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.585 / CLE 0.929
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.120 / CLE 0.909
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - CLE 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - CLE 1.3
F5 Win Prob: DET 66.8% - CLE 33.2% (Tie: 20.4%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -202 / CLE +202
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -142 -119 -4.3%
CLE ML +120 +119 +0.2%
DET -1.5 +120 +183 -10.1%
CLE +1.5 -144 -183 +5.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -13.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +8.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.5%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.46%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00763
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 3.05 ERA: 3.19
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 10.03 K/9: 8.67
BB/9: 1.92 BB/9: 2.33
FIP: 3.63 FIP: 2.98
IP: 70.7 IP: 65.0
xERA: 3.36 xERA: 3.16
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX BOS Lg Avg
Record 34-35 28-39
R/Game 4.00 4.00 4.48
RA/Game 3.90 4.07 4.47
OPS 0.698 0.696 0.715
wOBA 0.303 0.302 0.309
ERA 3.74 3.89 4.17
FIP 3.94 3.83 4.02
WHIP 1.23 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.46 8.58 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.23 3.16 4.07
BP FIP 3.86 3.68 3.94
BP WHIP 1.21 1.19
BP K/9 7.51 8.91
BP Quality* 44.0 39.5 45.0
BP IP 239.7 253.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cal Quantrill (38 pitches yesterday)
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0123 (Temp: 1.0253 | Wind: 0.9873)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.3 - BOS 3.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.3 - BOS 3.8
Win Probability: TEX 44.0% - BOS 56.0%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +127 / BOS -127
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 42.0%
Under 7.5: 58.0%
TEX -1.5: 26.6%
BOS +1.5: 73.4%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.813 / BOS 0.742
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.978 / BOS 0.878
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.7 - BOS 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.7 - BOS 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TEX 45.4% - BOS 54.6% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +120 / BOS -120
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +102 +127 -5.5%
BOS ML -120 -127 +1.4%
TEX -1.5 +172 +276 -10.1%
BOS +1.5 -210 -276 +5.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -10.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Martín Pérez Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
Record 45-24 31-38
R/Game 5.14 4.04 4.48
RA/Game 3.52 4.28 4.47
OPS 0.750 0.662 0.715
wOBA 0.322 0.285 0.309
ERA 3.27 3.90 4.17
FIP 3.76 3.65 4.02
WHIP 1.17 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.81 9.16 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.667 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.87 3.35 4.07
BP FIP 3.35 3.51 3.94
BP WHIP 1.10 1.20
BP K/9 8.98 9.12
BP Quality* 37.7 45.3 45.0
BP IP 244.7 301.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: JR Ritchie (73 pitches yesterday)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Devin Williams (B2B, 33 pitches)
TIRED: Cionel Pérez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0074 (Temp: 1.0273 | Wind: 0.9806)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.9 - NYM 3.9
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.0 - NYM 3.9
Win Probability: ATL 60.5% - NYM 39.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -153 / NYM +153
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 48.9%
Under 8.5: 51.1%
ATL +1.5: 75.5%
NYM -1.5: 24.5%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.043 / NYM 1.000
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.838 / NYM 1.007
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.8 - NYM 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.8 - NYM 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATL 57.5% - NYM 42.5% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -135 / NYM +135
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +104 -153 +11.5%
NYM ML -122 +153 -15.5%
ATL +1.5 -215 -308 +7.2%
NYM -1.5 +176 +308 -11.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line) [-215]
Model: 75.5% | Market: 68.3% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -308 | Kelly: 5.71%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00764
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +104 | Edge: 11.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00765
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 2.56 ERA: 4.12
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 9.76 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 2.61 BB/9: 3.86
FIP: 3.01 FIP: 4.38
IP: 77.3 IP: 69.7
xERA: 2.74 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.259 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CWS Lg Avg
Record 44-26 37-31
R/Game 5.36 4.79 4.48
RA/Game 3.40 4.56 4.47
OPS 0.784 0.742 0.715
wOBA 0.335 0.318 0.309
ERA 3.36 4.25 4.17
FIP 3.51 4.09 4.02
WHIP 1.10 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.11 8.20 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.697 0.523 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.82 4.23 4.07
BP FIP 3.36 4.25 3.94
BP WHIP 1.23 1.32
BP K/9 9.89 8.29
BP Quality* 46.4 48.5 45.0
BP IP 219.3 304.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Hernández (46 pitches yesterday)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9887 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 0.9692)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.6 - CWS 4.0
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.6 - CWS 4.0
Win Probability: LAD 65.2% - CWS 34.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -187 / CWS +187
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.0: 56.2%
Under 8.0: 33.9%
LAD -1.5: 50.2%
CWS +1.5: 49.8%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.672 / CWS 1.083
Bullpen Adj: LAD 1.031 / CWS 1.078
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.2 - CWS 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.1 - CWS 1.8
F5 Win Prob: LAD 71.8% - CWS 28.2% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -254 / CWS +254
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -205 -187 -2.0%
CWS ML +172 +187 -2.0%
LAD -1.5 -120 -101 -4.3%
CWS +1.5 +100 +101 -0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mike Burrows Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 4.62 ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.45 K/9: 7.83
BB/9: 3.11 BB/9: 2.64
FIP: 4.48 FIP: 3.76
IP: 73.3 IP: 65.7
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: KC (Noah Cameron)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU KC Lg Avg
Record 32-39 28-42
R/Game 4.58 3.96 4.48
RA/Game 5.08 4.70 4.47
OPS 0.730 0.692 0.715
wOBA 0.312 0.300 0.309
ERA 4.90 4.45 4.17
FIP 4.64 4.41 4.02
WHIP 1.44 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.54 8.21 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.452 0.422 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.78 4.82 4.07
BP FIP 4.69 4.85 3.94
BP WHIP 1.42 1.54
BP K/9 8.53 8.53
BP Quality* 57.7 59.4 45.0
BP IP 282.7 240.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (38 pitches yesterday)
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mason Black (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9924 (Temp: 1.0252 | Wind: 0.9680)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.7 - KC 4.6
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.7 - KC 4.6
Win Probability: HOU 51.2% - KC 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -105 / KC +105
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.5: 44.3%
Under 9.5: 55.7%
HOU +1.5: 66.9%
KC -1.5: 33.1%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.070 / KC 0.899
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.282 / KC 1.320
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - KC 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - KC 2.3
F5 Win Prob: HOU 47.8% - KC 52.2% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +109 / KC -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +108 -105 +3.2%
KC ML -126 +105 -7.0%
HOU +1.5 -194 -202 +0.9%
KC -1.5 +160 +202 -5.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Aaron Nola Home: Shane Drohan
ERA: 5.95 ERA: 3.11
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 9.26 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 2.79 BB/9: 2.63
FIP: 4.34 FIP: 2.7
IP: 66.0 IP: 37.7
xERA: 4.13 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIL Lg Avg
Record 37-32 42-25
R/Game 4.00 5.34 4.48
RA/Game 4.29 3.72 4.47
OPS 0.681 0.730 0.715
wOBA 0.295 0.315 0.309
ERA 4.04 3.42 4.17
FIP 3.40 3.40 4.02
WHIP 1.30 1.21 1.31
K/9 9.51 9.80 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.660 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 3.43 4.07
BP FIP 3.17 3.48 3.94
BP WHIP 1.29 1.28
BP K/9 9.86 9.19
BP Quality* 43.0 40.2 45.0
BP IP 242.0 267.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Painter (78 pitches yesterday)
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 24%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0087 (Temp: 1.0143 | Wind: 0.9946)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.0 - MIL 5.7
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.0 - MIL 5.7
Win Probability: PHI 24.2% - MIL 75.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +313 / MIL -313
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 48.1%
Under 8.5: 51.9%
PHI +1.5: 39.4%
MIL -1.5: 60.6%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 1.120 / MIL 0.687
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.956 / MIL 0.893
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 1.5 - MIL 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.5 - MIL 3.4
F5 Win Prob: PHI 21.3% - MIL 78.7% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +370 / MIL -370
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML +126 +313 -20.0%
MIL ML -148 -313 +16.1%
PHI +1.5 -170 +154 -23.6%
MIL -1.5 +140 -154 +18.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -148 | Edge: 16.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00766
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +140 | Edge: 18.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00767
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Freeland Home: Joey Estes
ERA: 5.87 ERA: 9.82
WHIP: 1.51 WHIP: 2.0
K/9: 7.11 K/9: 4.91
BB/9: 2.29 BB/9: 4.91
FIP: 4.49 FIP: 8.37
IP: 53.0 IP: 11.0
xERA: 4.96 xERA: 5.73
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.364
Pitcher Edge: COL (Kyle Freeland)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATH Lg Avg
Record 26-44 34-35
R/Game 4.30 4.41 4.48
RA/Game 5.76 4.97 4.47
OPS 0.713 0.738 0.715
wOBA 0.309 0.317 0.309
ERA 5.56 4.61 4.17
FIP 4.62 4.50 4.02
WHIP 1.52 1.41 1.31
K/9 7.43 8.30 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.370 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.26 4.44 4.07
BP FIP 4.23 3.72 3.94
BP WHIP 1.48 1.36
BP K/9 8.39 8.91
BP Quality* 55.9 46.9 45.0
BP IP 313.3 271.7
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (60 pitches yesterday)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9857 (Temp: 0.9833 | Wind: 1.0025)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 5.9 - ATH 5.5
Simulated Avg: COL 5.9 - ATH 5.5
Win Probability: COL 52.6% - ATH 47.3%
Fair Moneyline: COL -111 / ATH +111
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 14.0: 23.8%
Under 14.0: 70.0%
COL +1.5: 66.0%
ATH -1.5: 34.0%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.199 / ATH 1.600
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.242 / ATH 1.042
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 3.8 - ATH 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 3.8 - ATH 3.0
F5 Win Prob: COL 60.6% - ATH 39.4% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL -154 / ATH +154
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +144 -111 +11.7%
ATH ML -172 +111 -15.9%
COL +1.5 -132 -194 +9.1%
ATH -1.5 +110 +194 -13.6%
O 14.0 -110 N/A -28.6%
U 14.0 -110 N/A +17.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [-132]
Model: 66.0% | Market: 56.9% | Edge: 9.1%
Fair ML: -194 | Kelly: 5.26%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00768
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +144 | Edge: 11.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00769
[HMC] Under 14.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00770
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ben Brown Home: Trevor McDonald
ERA: 5.2 ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 10.05 K/9: 8.54
BB/9: 2.68 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 3.13
IP: 57.0 IP: 39.0
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 3.21
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: SF (Trevor McDonald)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SF Lg Avg
Record 36-34 28-42
R/Game 4.60 4.14 4.48
RA/Game 4.49 4.93 4.47
OPS 0.722 0.724 0.715
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.309
ERA 4.26 4.56 4.17
FIP 4.46 4.17 4.02
WHIP 1.24 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.11 7.99 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.421 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.55 4.39 4.07
BP FIP 4.28 4.35 3.94
BP WHIP 1.25 1.46
BP K/9 7.97 7.52
BP Quality* 47.2 49.4 45.0
BP IP 261.0 244.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9516 (Temp: 0.9832 | Wind: 0.9679)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 3.8 - SF 4.0
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.8 - SF 4.0
Win Probability: CHC 47.5% - SF 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +111 / SF -111
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 49.0%
Under 7.5: 51.0%
CHC -1.5: 30.4%
SF +1.5: 69.6%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.041 / SF 0.818
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.049 / SF 1.098
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 1.9 - SF 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.9 - SF 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CHC 43.8% - SF 56.2% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +128 / SF -128
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -126 +111 -8.3%
SF ML +108 -111 +4.4%
CHC -1.5 +136 +229 -12.0%
SF +1.5 -164 -229 +7.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.4%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Run Line) [-164]
Model: 69.6% | Market: 62.1% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -229 | Kelly: 4.94%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00771
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Griffin Jax Home: José Soriano
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 3.74
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 12.31 K/9: 8.67
BB/9: 3.15 BB/9: 4.25
FIP: 3.01 FIP: 3.71
IP: 39.0 IP: 82.0
xERA: 3.26 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: TB (Griffin Jax)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB LAA Lg Avg
Record 40-26 28-42
R/Game 4.55 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 4.38 5.04 4.47
OPS 0.720 0.705 0.715
wOBA 0.311 0.305 0.309
ERA 3.92 4.64 4.17
FIP 4.07 4.22 4.02
WHIP 1.23 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.88 9.04 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 4.80 4.07
BP FIP 4.65 4.55 3.94
BP WHIP 1.34 1.50
BP K/9 7.92 9.11
BP Quality* 51.5 56.2 45.0
BP IP 264.7 262.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Englert (65 pitches yesterday)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (48 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9956 (Temp: 1.0012 | Wind: 0.9944)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.7 - LAA 4.3
Simulated Avg: TB 4.7 - LAA 4.4
Win Probability: TB 53.3% - LAA 46.7%
Fair Moneyline: TB -114 / LAA +114
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 51.9%
Under 8.0: 37.8%
TB -1.5: 37.6%
LAA +1.5: 62.4%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.815 / LAA 0.919
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.144 / LAA 1.249
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.3 - LAA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.3 - LAA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TB 54.8% - LAA 45.2% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -121 / LAA +121
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -110 -114 +0.9%
LAA ML -106 +114 -4.7%
TB -1.5 +152 +166 -2.1%
LAA +1.5 -184 -166 -2.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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