2026-06-14
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-14
Games: 15 | Plays: 6
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Meyer Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 3.98 ERA: 2.32
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 9.6 K/9: 10.43
BB/9: 2.99 BB/9: 1.92
FIP: 3.88 FIP: 2.29
IP: 79.0 IP: 76.0
xERA: 4.8 xERA: 2.65
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.255
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA PIT Lg Avg
Record 35-36 36-35
R/Game 4.31 5.03 4.48
RA/Game 4.34 4.80 4.47
OPS 0.705 0.738 0.716
wOBA 0.306 0.320 0.309
ERA 4.10 4.23 4.17
FIP 3.73 3.63 4.02
WHIP 1.25 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.83 9.08 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.497 0.521 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 4.52 4.07
BP FIP 3.40 4.03 3.95
BP WHIP 1.23 1.39
BP K/9 9.74 9.29
BP Quality* 45.8 48.9 45.1
BP IP 259.7 277.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Christopher Morel, Javier Sanoja
Christopher Morel 1B OPS: 0.685 (278 AB)
Javier Sanoja 3B OPS: 0.683 (313 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.5% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Marcell Ozuna
Marcell Ozuna DH OPS: 0.755 (487 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9777 (Temp: 1.0175 | Wind: 0.9608)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.1 - PIT 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.1 - PIT 4.9
Win Probability: MIA 31.8% - PIT 68.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +214 / PIT -214
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.0: 51.0%
Under 7.0: 37.8%
MIA +1.5: 49.0%
PIT -1.5: 51.0%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.014 / PIT 0.581
Bullpen Adj: MIA 1.016 / PIT 1.084
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.3 - PIT 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.3 - PIT 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIA 24.3% - PIT 75.7% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +312 / PIT -312
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +136 +214 -10.6%
PIT ML -162 -214 +6.4%
MIA +1.5 -172 +104 -14.2%
PIT -1.5 +142 -104 +9.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -1.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -14.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line) [+142]
Model: 51.0% | Market: 41.3% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -104 | Kelly: 4.11%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00772
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walker Buehler Home: Trevor Rogers
ERA: 4.71 ERA: 3.3
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 6.97 K/9: 7.82
BB/9: 3.92 BB/9: 2.59
FIP: 4.59 FIP: 3.36
IP: 62.3 IP: 60.0
xERA: 5.41 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD BAL Lg Avg
Record 36-33 34-38
R/Game 3.87 4.74 4.48
RA/Game 4.06 5.15 4.47
OPS 0.658 0.728 0.716
wOBA 0.285 0.315 0.309
ERA 3.93 4.60 4.17
FIP 3.89 4.29 4.02
WHIP 1.29 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.52 7.78 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.10 4.55 4.07
BP FIP 3.22 3.89 3.95
BP WHIP 1.21 1.33
BP K/9 9.52 8.37
BP Quality* 37.3 50.8 45.1
BP IP 276.0 271.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keegan Akin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ty France, Freddy Fermin, Will Wagner
Ty France 1B OPS: 0.680 (444 AB)
Freddy Fermin C OPS: 0.636 (319 AB)
Will Wagner 3B OPS: 0.603 (129 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.2% of full strength
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9952 (Temp: 1.0318 | Wind: 0.9645)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.5 - BAL 5.1
Simulated Avg: SD 3.5 - BAL 5.0
Win Probability: SD 34.8% - BAL 65.1%
Fair Moneyline: SD +187 / BAL -187
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 10.0: 28.1%
Under 10.0: 63.4%
SD +1.5: 51.6%
BAL -1.5: 48.4%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.177 / BAL 0.806
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.827 / BAL 1.126
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.7 - BAL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.7 - BAL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: SD 26.7% - BAL 73.4% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +275 / BAL -275
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +112 +187 -12.3%
BAL ML -132 -187 +8.3%
SD +1.5 -184 -107 -13.2%
BAL -1.5 +152 +107 +8.7%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -24.2%
U 10.0 -110 N/A +11.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (Run Line) [+152]
Model: 48.4% | Market: 39.7% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: +107 | Kelly: 3.60%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00773
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00774
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emerson Hancock Home: Miles Mikolas
ERA: 4.1 ERA: 5.02
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.25 K/9: 5.73
BB/9: 2.7 BB/9: 2.17
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 5.06
IP: 75.7 IP: 61.0
xERA: 5.51 xERA: 5.27
xwOBA: 0.358 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Emerson Hancock)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA WSH Lg Avg
Record 37-35 36-35
R/Game 4.31 5.38 4.48
RA/Game 3.90 5.32 4.47
OPS 0.718 0.740 0.716
wOBA 0.311 0.317 0.309
ERA 3.59 4.71 4.17
FIP 3.47 4.67 4.02
WHIP 1.19 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.66 7.72 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.545 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.36 4.80 4.07
BP FIP 3.39 4.81 3.95
BP WHIP 1.32 1.44
BP K/9 8.56 7.04
BP Quality* 41.5 52.6 45.1
BP IP 230.3 337.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rob Refsnyder, Randy Arozarena, Mitch Garver
Rob Refsnyder DH OPS: 0.838 (182 AB)
Randy Arozarena LF OPS: 0.760 (613 AB)
Mitch Garver C OPS: 0.640 (254 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.4% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: José Tena, Curtis Mead
José Tena DH OPS: 0.669 (152 AB)
Curtis Mead 1B OPS: 0.620 (240 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9937 (Temp: 1.0305 | Wind: 0.9643)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.6 - WSH 5.5
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.6 - WSH 5.5
Win Probability: SEA 42.0% - WSH 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +138 / WSH -138
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 10.0: 42.0%
Under 10.0: 48.6%
SEA -1.5: 28.3%
WSH +1.5: 71.7%
Pitcher Adj: SEA 1.129 / WSH 1.229
Bullpen Adj: SEA 0.920 / WSH 1.166
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.6 - WSH 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.6 - WSH 3.3
F5 Win Prob: SEA 40.9% - WSH 59.1% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +144 / WSH -144
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -142 +138 -16.6%
WSH ML +120 -138 +12.5%
SEA -1.5 +106 +253 -20.2%
WSH +1.5 -128 -253 +15.6%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +120 | Edge: 12.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00775
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -128 | Edge: 15.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00776
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Will Warren Home: Patrick Corbin
ERA: 4.06 ERA: 4.45
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 9.61 K/9: 7.14
BB/9: 3.28 BB/9: 3.02
FIP: 3.66 FIP: 4.22
IP: 68.7 IP: 57.3
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 4.77
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Will Warren)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
Record 42-27 34-37
R/Game 5.07 4.08 4.48
RA/Game 3.59 4.32 4.47
OPS 0.760 0.701 0.716
wOBA 0.326 0.302 0.309
ERA 3.32 4.07 4.17
FIP 3.50 3.74 4.02
WHIP 1.18 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.73 9.08 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.653 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.41 3.84 4.07
BP FIP 3.51 3.59 3.95
BP WHIP 1.29 1.25
BP K/9 8.72 9.14
BP Quality* 41.9 44.8 45.1
BP IP 232.3 302.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ryan McMahon
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B OPS: 0.813 (462 AB)
Ryan McMahon 3B OPS: 0.693 (509 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.4% of full strength
TOR (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Davis Schneider, Myles Straw
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B OPS: 0.848 (589 AB)
Davis Schneider LF OPS: 0.797 (188 AB)
Myles Straw RF OPS: 0.680 (267 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.9 - TOR 3.7
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.9 - TOR 3.7
Win Probability: NYY 61.9% - TOR 38.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -162 / TOR +162
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 46.9%
Under 8.5: 53.1%
NYY -1.5: 45.5%
TOR +1.5: 54.5%
Pitcher Adj: NYY 0.979 / TOR 1.072
Bullpen Adj: NYY 0.929 / TOR 0.993
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.9 - TOR 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.9 - TOR 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYY 62.7% - TOR 37.3% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -168 / TOR +168
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -130 -162 +5.4%
TOR ML +110 +162 -9.5%
NYY -1.5 +132 +120 +2.4%
TOR +1.5 -160 -120 -7.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zac Gallen Home: Andrew Abbott
ERA: 5.07 ERA: 3.36
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 7.3 K/9: 7.39
BB/9: 2.94 BB/9: 2.99
FIP: 4.54 FIP: 4.04
IP: 69.7 IP: 74.7
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.56
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Andrew Abbott)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI CIN Lg Avg
Record 35-35 33-36
R/Game 4.21 4.20 4.48
RA/Game 4.53 5.01 4.47
OPS 0.689 0.704 0.716
wOBA 0.297 0.305 0.309
ERA 4.20 4.69 4.17
FIP 4.26 4.88 4.02
WHIP 1.27 1.47 1.31
K/9 7.17 7.89 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.420 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 4.99 4.07
BP FIP 3.83 5.01 3.95
BP WHIP 1.23 1.55
BP K/9 7.92 8.63
BP Quality* 45.5 55.0 45.1
BP IP 227.3 265.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Pavin Smith, Adrian Del Castillo
Pavin Smith DH OPS: 0.796 (244 AB)
Adrian Del Castillo DH OPS: 0.682 (120 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.9% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Stephenson, Spencer Steer, Will Benson
Tyler Stephenson C OPS: 0.737 (299 AB)
Spencer Steer LF OPS: 0.723 (509 AB)
Will Benson RF OPS: 0.708 (230 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 29%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9941 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 0.9787)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.3 - CIN 4.6
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.3 - CIN 4.6
Win Probability: ARI 47.4% - CIN 52.6%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +111 / CIN -111
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 10.0: 30.6%
Under 10.0: 60.6%
ARI -1.5: 31.9%
CIN +1.5: 68.1%
Pitcher Adj: ARI 1.098 / CIN 0.888
Bullpen Adj: ARI 1.009 / CIN 1.220
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - CIN 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - CIN 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ARI 41.4% - CIN 58.6% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +141 / CIN -141
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -112 +111 -5.5%
CIN ML -104 -111 +1.6%
ARI -1.5 +138 +213 -10.1%
CIN +1.5 -166 -213 +5.7%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -21.8%
U 10.0 -110 N/A +8.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 10.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -154 | Kelly: 4.30%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00777
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Casey Mize Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 3.46 ERA: 3.16
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.62 K/9: 9.69
BB/9: 2.2 BB/9: 3.84
FIP: 3.42 FIP: 4.07
IP: 47.7 IP: 86.7
xERA: 3.66 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: DET (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
Record 29-42 39-33
R/Game 4.06 4.01 4.48
RA/Game 4.23 4.06 4.47
OPS 0.705 0.689 0.716
wOBA 0.307 0.299 0.309
ERA 3.94 3.75 4.17
FIP 3.80 3.85 4.02
WHIP 1.28 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.22 9.28 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.06 3.68 4.07
BP FIP 3.99 3.44 3.95
BP WHIP 1.38 1.28
BP K/9 8.49 10.32
BP Quality* 47.1 45.1 45.1
BP IP 268.3 242.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Cade Smith (B2B, 31 pitches)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jahmai Jones, Zach McKinstry, Wenceel Pérez
Jahmai Jones DH OPS: 0.937 (129 AB)
Zach McKinstry 2B OPS: 0.771 (452 AB)
Wenceel Pérez RF OPS: 0.738 (344 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.9% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Angel Martínez, Stuart Fairchild
Angel Martínez LF OPS: 0.628 (446 AB)
Stuart Fairchild RF OPS: 0.606 (51 AB)
Run Adjustment: 99.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 51%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9830 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 0.9676)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.3 - CLE 3.6
Simulated Avg: DET 3.3 - CLE 3.6
Win Probability: DET 46.8% - CLE 53.2%
Fair Moneyline: DET +114 / CLE -114
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 7.0: 39.1%
Under 7.0: 49.2%
DET -1.5: 28.6%
CLE +1.5: 71.4%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.843 / CLE 0.941
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.044 / CLE 1.000
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 1.8 - CLE 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.8 - CLE 1.8
F5 Win Prob: DET 50.5% - CLE 49.5% (Tie: 20.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -102 / CLE +102
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -110 +114 -5.6%
CLE ML -106 -114 +1.8%
DET -1.5 +146 +250 -12.1%
CLE +1.5 -178 -250 +7.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -13.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -3.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (Run Line) [-178]
Model: 71.4% | Market: 64.0% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -250 | Kelly: 5.12%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00778
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Elder Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 4.24 ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 7.54 K/9: 9.88
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 3.99 FIP: 3.66
IP: 84.7 IP: 78.0
xERA: 4.73 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Freddy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
Record 46-24 31-39
R/Game 5.11 4.00 4.48
RA/Game 3.49 4.26 4.47
OPS 0.749 0.660 0.716
wOBA 0.322 0.285 0.309
ERA 3.23 3.89 4.17
FIP 3.73 3.65 4.02
WHIP 1.17 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.83 9.18 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.669 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.83 3.35 4.07
BP FIP 3.31 3.52 3.95
BP WHIP 1.09 1.20
BP K/9 9.06 9.15
BP Quality* 35.8 43.9 45.1
BP IP 248.3 304.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Austin Warren (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Wynns, Rowdy Tellez
Austin Wynns C OPS: 0.865 (103 AB)
Rowdy Tellez 1B OPS: 0.719 (289 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Eric Wagaman, Vidal Bruján
Francisco Alvarez C OPS: 0.786 (246 AB)
Mark Vientos 1B OPS: 0.702 (424 AB)
Eric Wagaman 1B OPS: 0.674 (476 AB)
Vidal Bruján SS OPS: 0.615 (87 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9995 (Temp: 1.0235 | Wind: 0.9765)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.1 - NYM 3.5
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.1 - NYM 3.5
Win Probability: ATL 56.2% - NYM 43.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -128 / NYM +128
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 36.1%
Under 8.5: 63.9%
ATL +1.5: 73.4%
NYM -1.5: 26.6%
Pitcher Adj: ATL 1.034 / NYM 0.833
Bullpen Adj: ATL 0.794 / NYM 0.973
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.1 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.1 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: ATL 50.3% - NYM 49.7% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -101 / NYM +101
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +110 -128 +8.6%
NYM ML -130 +128 -12.7%
ATL +1.5 -192 -276 +7.6%
NYM -1.5 +158 +276 -12.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -16.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +11.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line) [-192]
Model: 73.4% | Market: 65.8% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -276 | Kelly: 5.57%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00779
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00780
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Spencer Arrighetti Home: Stephen Kolek
ERA: 4.45 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.03 K/9: 6.18
BB/9: 5.03 BB/9: 2.36
FIP: 4.77 FIP: 3.65
IP: 57.0 IP: 43.0
xERA: 5.44 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.356 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: KC (Stephen Kolek)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU KC Lg Avg
Record 33-39 28-43
R/Game 4.62 4.00 4.48
RA/Game 5.11 4.75 4.47
OPS 0.733 0.695 0.716
wOBA 0.313 0.301 0.309
ERA 4.92 4.50 4.17
FIP 4.63 4.46 4.02
WHIP 1.44 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.50 8.17 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.422 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.77 4.88 4.07
BP FIP 4.67 4.91 3.95
BP WHIP 1.41 1.53
BP K/9 8.45 8.51
BP Quality* 56.0 56.8 45.1
BP IP 286.7 245.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Enyel De Los Santos (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Starling Marte, Tyler Tolbert, Nick Loftin
Starling Marte RF OPS: 0.745 (293 AB)
Tyler Tolbert 2B OPS: 0.701 (50 AB)
Nick Loftin 2B OPS: 0.635 (168 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0543 (Temp: 1.0057 | Wind: 1.0483)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.0 - KC 4.9
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.0 - KC 4.9
Win Probability: HOU 50.4% - KC 49.6%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -102 / KC +102
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.5: 59.6%
Under 8.5: 40.4%
HOU -1.5: 35.9%
KC +1.5: 64.1%
Pitcher Adj: HOU 1.181 / KC 0.917
Bullpen Adj: HOU 1.242 / KC 1.259
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.4 - KC 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.4 - KC 2.6
F5 Win Prob: HOU 46.1% - KC 53.9% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +117 / KC -117
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +100 -102 +0.4%
KC ML -118 +102 -4.5%
HOU -1.5 +160 +179 -2.6%
KC +1.5 -194 -179 -1.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.80%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00781
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 3.89 ERA: 4.7
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 5.7 K/9: 8.73
BB/9: 1.97 BB/9: 3.7
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 4.15
IP: 72.3 IP: 65.0
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL MIN Lg Avg
Record 38-30 32-40
R/Game 4.63 4.62 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 5.22 4.47
OPS 0.724 0.714 0.716
wOBA 0.311 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.13 4.87 4.17
FIP 4.13 4.17 4.02
WHIP 1.34 1.40 1.31
K/9 7.75 8.26 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.519 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 5.26 4.07
BP FIP 4.01 4.36 3.95
BP WHIP 1.33 1.55
BP K/9 8.16 8.15
BP Quality* 53.2 54.4 45.1
BP IP 252.7 261.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (31 pitches yesterday)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Travis Adams (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Alex Jackson, Austin Martin
Alex Jackson C OPS: 0.763 (91 AB)
Austin Martin RF OPS: 0.739 (156 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), wind out (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0454 (Temp: 0.9984 | Wind: 1.0471)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 5.3 - MIN 5.2
Simulated Avg: STL 5.3 - MIN 5.2
Win Probability: STL 50.6% - MIN 49.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL -102 / MIN +102
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 9.0: 54.7%
Under 9.0: 36.0%
STL -1.5: 36.3%
MIN +1.5: 63.7%
Pitcher Adj: STL 1.026 / MIN 1.024
Bullpen Adj: STL 1.180 / MIN 1.206
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.8 - MIN 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.8 - MIN 2.7
F5 Win Prob: STL 50.9% - MIN 49.1% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -104 / MIN +104
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -102 -102 +0.1%
MIN ML -116 +102 -4.3%
STL -1.5 +152 +175 -3.4%
MIN +1.5 -184 -175 -1.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +2.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emmet Sheehan Home: Erick Fedde
ERA: 3.46 ERA: 5.31
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 10.51 K/9: 5.39
BB/9: 2.61 BB/9: 4.08
FIP: 3.27 FIP: 5.27
IP: 59.3 IP: 63.3
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Emmet Sheehan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CWS Lg Avg
Record 45-26 37-32
R/Game 5.38 4.74 4.48
RA/Game 3.37 4.59 4.47
OPS 0.788 0.735 0.716
wOBA 0.337 0.315 0.309
ERA 3.32 4.29 4.17
FIP 3.50 4.15 4.02
WHIP 1.09 1.32 1.31
K/9 9.08 8.24 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.702 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.80 4.25 4.07
BP FIP 3.36 4.29 3.95
BP WHIP 1.22 1.33
BP K/9 9.86 8.30
BP Quality* 43.3 48.9 45.1
BP IP 220.0 309.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Joe Rock (60 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Alex Call, Miguel Rojas
Alex Call LF OPS: 0.746 (270 AB)
Miguel Rojas SS OPS: 0.715 (290 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.3% of full strength
CWS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Edgar Quero, Randal Grichuk, Luisangel Acuña, Everson Pereira
Edgar Quero C OPS: 0.689 (365 AB)
Randal Grichuk RF OPS: 0.674 (272 AB)
Luisangel Acuña CF OPS: 0.567 (175 AB)
Everson Pereira RF OPS: 0.465 (65 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind out (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0231 (Temp: 0.9954 | Wind: 1.0278)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 6.2 - CWS 4.1
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.2 - CWS 4.1
Win Probability: LAD 68.2% - CWS 31.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -215 / CWS +215
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.5: 53.0%
Under 9.5: 47.0%
LAD -1.5: 54.2%
CWS +1.5: 45.8%
Pitcher Adj: LAD 0.773 / CWS 1.278
Bullpen Adj: LAD 0.960 / CWS 1.084
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.7 - CWS 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.7 - CWS 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAD 73.0% - CWS 27.0% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -270 / CWS +270
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -196 -215 +2.0%
CWS ML +164 +215 -6.1%
LAD -1.5 -118 -118 +0.0%
CWS +1.5 -102 +118 -4.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +0.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -5.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Kyle Harrison
ERA: 2.12 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 10.03 K/9: 10.28
BB/9: 1.87 BB/9: 3.25
FIP: 2.18 FIP: 3.38
IP: 93.3 IP: 59.7
xERA: 3.02 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIL Lg Avg
Record 38-32 42-26
R/Game 4.07 5.38 4.48
RA/Game 4.34 3.79 4.47
OPS 0.687 0.733 0.716
wOBA 0.297 0.316 0.309
ERA 4.10 3.50 4.17
FIP 3.46 3.40 4.02
WHIP 1.30 1.22 1.31
K/9 9.46 9.88 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.655 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.98 3.55 4.07
BP FIP 3.23 3.50 3.95
BP WHIP 1.30 1.31
BP K/9 9.79 9.32
BP Quality* 43.8 43.9 45.1
BP IP 246.3 271.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Keller (32 pitches yesterday)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Drew Rom (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Jake Bauers
Christian Yelich DH OPS: 0.795 (573 AB)
Brice Turang 2B OPS: 0.794 (584 AB)
Sal Frelick RF OPS: 0.756 (528 AB)
Jake Bauers 1B OPS: 0.752 (183 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind out (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0410 (Temp: 0.9946 | Wind: 1.0466)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.8 - MIL 3.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.8 - MIL 3.8
Win Probability: PHI 49.8% - MIL 50.2%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +101 / MIL -101
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 6.5: 58.8%
Under 6.5: 41.2%
PHI -1.5: 32.5%
MIL +1.5: 67.5%
Pitcher Adj: PHI 0.590 / MIL 0.889
Bullpen Adj: PHI 0.971 / MIL 0.973
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.0 - MIL 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.0 - MIL 1.6
F5 Win Prob: PHI 58.2% - MIL 41.8% (Tie: 19.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -139 / MIL +139
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -126 +101 -6.0%
MIL ML +108 -101 +2.2%
PHI -1.5 +146 +208 -8.2%
MIL +1.5 -176 -208 +3.8%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +6.4%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 4.43 ERA: 4.34
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 5.73 K/9: 7.38
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 2.81
FIP: 5.15 FIP: 4.78
IP: 68.3 IP: 75.0
xERA: 5.81 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Jeffrey Springs)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATH Lg Avg
Record 26-45 35-35
R/Game 4.31 4.44 4.48
RA/Game 5.77 4.97 4.47
OPS 0.715 0.741 0.716
wOBA 0.310 0.317 0.309
ERA 5.59 4.62 4.17
FIP 4.62 4.49 4.02
WHIP 1.52 1.41 1.31
K/9 7.43 8.28 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.369 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.25 4.40 4.07
BP FIP 4.23 3.72 3.95
BP WHIP 1.48 1.36
BP K/9 8.38 8.86
BP Quality* 54.4 45.3 45.1
BP IP 315.7 276.3
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Seth Halvorsen (B2B, 25 pitches)
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9986 (Temp: 1.0015 | Wind: 0.9971)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.6 - ATH 5.7
Simulated Avg: COL 4.6 - ATH 5.7
Win Probability: COL 39.7% - ATH 60.3%
Fair Moneyline: COL +152 / ATH -152
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 13.5: 21.8%
Under 13.5: 78.2%
COL +1.5: 54.3%
ATH -1.5: 45.7%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.247 / ATH 1.080
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.206 / ATH 1.004
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - ATH 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - ATH 3.2
F5 Win Prob: COL 42.3% - ATH 57.7% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +136 / ATH -136
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +166 +152 +2.1%
ATH ML -198 -152 -6.1%
COL +1.5 -118 -119 +0.1%
ATH -1.5 -102 +119 -4.8%
O 13.5 -110 N/A -30.6%
U 13.5 -110 N/A +25.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 13.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 25.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00782
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Rolison Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 7.02 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.77 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 5.31 K/9: 9.11
BB/9: 4.25 BB/9: 2.17
FIP: 6.72 FIP: 2.64
IP: 24.0 IP: 67.3
xERA: 5.73 xERA: 3.58
xwOBA: 0.364 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SF Lg Avg
Record 37-34 28-43
R/Game 4.62 4.10 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.94 4.47
OPS 0.726 0.723 0.716
wOBA 0.316 0.308 0.309
ERA 4.21 4.58 4.17
FIP 4.44 4.20 4.02
WHIP 1.24 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.10 8.05 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.415 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 4.37 4.07
BP FIP 4.24 4.37 3.95
BP WHIP 1.23 1.46
BP K/9 7.98 7.65
BP Quality* 46.7 53.9 45.1
BP IP 265.0 249.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9612 (Temp: 0.9952 | Wind: 0.9658)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 3.9 - SF 4.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.9 - SF 4.5
Win Probability: CHC 43.9% - SF 56.1%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +128 / SF -128
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 44.5%
Under 8.0: 44.6%
CHC +1.5: 60.9%
SF -1.5: 39.1%
Pitcher Adj: CHC 1.279 / SF 0.759
Bullpen Adj: CHC 1.035 / SF 1.195
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 1.8 - SF 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.8 - SF 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CHC 33.8% - SF 66.2% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +196 / SF -196
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML +122 +128 -1.2%
SF ML -144 -128 -2.9%
CHC +1.5 -178 -155 -3.2%
SF -1.5 +146 +155 -1.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Casey Legumina (stats from ???, scheduled for TB)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Casey Legumina Home: Grayson Rodriguez
ERA: 5.62 ERA: 8.1
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.8
K/9: 9.97 K/9: 8.87
BB/9: 4.53 BB/9: 5.01
FIP: 4.23 FIP: 5.03
IP: 29.3 IP: 23.3
xERA: 3.82 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: TB (Casey Legumina)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB LAA Lg Avg
Record 40-27 29-42
R/Game 4.48 4.51 4.48
RA/Game 4.43 4.97 4.47
OPS 0.716 0.708 0.716
wOBA 0.310 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.97 4.58 4.17
FIP 4.05 4.19 4.02
WHIP 1.24 1.43 1.31
K/9 7.94 9.02 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.455 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.74 4.72 4.07
BP FIP 4.66 4.53 3.95
BP WHIP 1.37 1.49
BP K/9 8.04 9.08
BP Quality* 52.4 51.3 45.1
BP IP 267.7 266.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (39 pitches yesterday)
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9959 (Temp: 1.0133 | Wind: 0.9827)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 5.8 - LAA 5.2
Simulated Avg: TB 5.8 - LAA 5.2
Win Probability: TB 54.8% - LAA 45.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB -121 / LAA +121
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.0: 59.5%
Under 9.0: 31.6%
TB -1.5: 41.0%
LAA +1.5: 59.0%
Pitcher Adj: TB 1.110 / LAA 1.436
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.162 / LAA 1.137
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 3.6 - LAA 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 3.5 - LAA 2.8
F5 Win Prob: TB 59.6% - LAA 40.4% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -148 / LAA +148
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -118 -121 +0.7%
LAA ML +100 +121 -4.8%
TB -1.5 +142 +144 -0.3%
LAA +1.5 -172 -144 -4.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Connelly Early
ERA: 2.67 ERA: 3.3
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 8.82 K/9: 8.75
BB/9: 1.74 BB/9: 3.42
FIP: 3.25 FIP: 4.49
IP: 80.3 IP: 71.0
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 2.35
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.24
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX BOS Lg Avg
Record 34-36 29-39
R/Game 3.99 4.03 4.48
RA/Game 3.93 4.06 4.47
OPS 0.697 0.697 0.716
wOBA 0.303 0.303 0.309
ERA 3.78 3.87 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.81 4.02
WHIP 1.23 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.47 8.63 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.35 3.14 4.07
BP FIP 3.90 3.69 3.95
BP WHIP 1.22 1.19
BP K/9 7.56 8.94
BP Quality* 44.7 42.4 45.1
BP IP 241.7 257.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Coulombe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 31 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9951 (Temp: 1.0146 | Wind: 0.9808)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.6 - BOS 3.6
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.5 - BOS 3.6
Win Probability: TEX 49.5% - BOS 50.5%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +102 / BOS -102
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 9.0: 22.3%
Under 9.0: 69.2%
TEX -1.5: 31.5%
BOS +1.5: 68.5%
Pitcher Adj: TEX 0.724 / BOS 0.826
Bullpen Adj: TEX 0.991 / BOS 0.940
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.9 - BOS 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.9 - BOS 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TEX 53.3% - BOS 46.7% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -114 / BOS +114
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -102 +102 -1.0%
BOS ML -116 -102 -3.2%
TEX -1.5 +146 +218 -9.2%
BOS +1.5 -178 -218 +4.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -30.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +16.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00783