2026-06-15
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-15
Games: 10 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Gusto Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 5.69 ERA: 2.58
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 8.61 K/9: 10.88
BB/9: 3.12 BB/9: 1.96
FIP: 4.28 FIP: 2.98
IP: 9.0 IP: 56.7
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 2.49
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.247
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
Record 36-36 38-33
R/Game 4.31 4.01 4.48
RA/Game 4.31 4.34 4.48
OPS 0.706 0.681 0.717
wOBA 0.307 0.295 0.309
ERA 4.07 4.11 4.18
FIP 3.71 3.48 4.03
WHIP 1.25 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.87 9.41 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 3.95 4.08
BP FIP 3.42 3.21 3.97
BP WHIP 1.23 1.29
BP K/9 9.73 9.77
BP Quality* 42.8 43.5 45.2
BP IP 262.7 248.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0036 (Temp: 0.9984 | Wind: 1.0052)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.4 - PHI 4.3
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.4 - PHI 4.3
Win Probability: MIA 40.5% - PHI 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +147 / PHI -147
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.0: 36.7%
Under 8.0: 52.8%
MIA +1.5: 58.8%
PHI -1.5: 41.2%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 1.051 / PHI 0.648
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.947 / PHI 0.962
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.6 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.6 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 33.6% - PHI 66.4% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +198 / PHI -198
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +176 +147 +4.2%
PHI ML -210 -147 -8.2%
MIA +1.5 -128 -143 +2.6%
PHI -1.5 +106 +143 -7.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -15.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +0.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mitch Spence Home: Andrew Alvarez
ERA: 5.1 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 7.02 K/9: 9.62
BB/9: 2.76 BB/9: 4.07
FIP: 4.92 FIP: 3.39
IP: 4.0 IP: 24.3
xERA: 5.7 xERA: 2.87
xwOBA: 0.363 xwOBA: 0.265
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC WSH Lg Avg
Record 29-43 37-35
R/Game 4.00 5.44 4.48
RA/Game 4.68 5.26 4.48
OPS 0.694 0.745 0.717
wOBA 0.301 0.319 0.309
ERA 4.44 4.66 4.18
FIP 4.43 4.63 4.03
WHIP 1.38 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.12 7.69 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.429 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.85 4.69 4.08
BP FIP 4.89 4.74 3.97
BP WHIP 1.52 1.41
BP K/9 8.49 7.00
BP Quality* 58.0 53.2 45.2
BP IP 247.0 345.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Miles Mikolas (83 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0214 (Temp: 1.0072 | Wind: 1.0141)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.3 - WSH 6.5
Simulated Avg: KC 4.2 - WSH 6.5
Win Probability: KC 31.2% - WSH 68.8%
Fair Moneyline: KC +221 / WSH -221
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 9.0: 57.2%
Under 9.0: 33.9%
KC +1.5: 44.9%
WSH -1.5: 55.1%
Pitcher Adj: KC 1.094 / WSH 1.023
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.283 / WSH 1.177
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.2 - WSH 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.2 - WSH 3.3
F5 Win Prob: KC 34.1% - WSH 65.9% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +193 / WSH -193
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +112 +221 -16.0%
WSH ML -132 -221 +11.9%
KC +1.5 -196 +123 -21.4%
WSH -1.5 +162 -123 +17.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +4.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -18.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -132 | Edge: 11.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00784
[HMC] Washington Nationals -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +162 | Edge: 17.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00785
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tobias Myers Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 3.58 ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 6.77 K/9: 12.64
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 3.1
FIP: 3.81 FIP: 2.85
IP: 33.3 IP: 75.7
xERA: 4.39 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.324 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CIN Lg Avg
Record 32-39 33-37
R/Game 4.06 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 4.21 5.01 4.48
OPS 0.665 0.705 0.717
wOBA 0.287 0.305 0.309
ERA 3.85 4.68 4.18
FIP 3.64 4.91 4.03
WHIP 1.27 1.46 1.31
K/9 9.10 7.88 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.418 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.30 5.02 4.08
BP FIP 3.53 5.09 3.97
BP WHIP 1.19 1.55
BP K/9 9.09 8.57
BP Quality* 43.7 58.5 45.2
BP IP 308.0 269.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cionel Pérez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zach Maxwell (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0012 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 1.0009)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.2 - CIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.2 - CIN 4.4
Win Probability: NYM 48.4% - CIN 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +107 / CIN -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 46.7%
Under 8.5: 53.3%
NYM +1.5: 64.9%
CIN -1.5: 35.1%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.946 / CIN 0.784
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.967 / CIN 1.294
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.9 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.9 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: NYM 40.6% - CIN 59.5% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +147 / CIN -147
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +120 +107 +2.9%
CIN ML -142 -107 -7.0%
NYM +1.5 -182 -184 +0.3%
CIN -1.5 +150 +184 -4.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Dustin May
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD STL Lg Avg
Record 37-33 38-31
R/Game 3.89 4.62 4.48
RA/Game 4.03 4.45 4.48
OPS 0.658 0.723 0.717
wOBA 0.285 0.311 0.309
ERA 3.91 4.15 4.18
FIP 3.87 4.13 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.54 7.74 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.518 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.09 4.21 4.08
BP FIP 3.19 3.98 3.97
BP WHIP 1.21 1.35
BP K/9 9.55 8.23
BP Quality* 41.6 50.4 45.2
BP IP 280.0 254.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0079 (Temp: 1.0079 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.2 - STL 4.5
Simulated Avg: SD 4.2 - STL 4.5
Win Probability: SD 45.9% - STL 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: SD +118 / STL -118
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.1%
Under 8.5: 51.9%
SD +1.5: 62.6%
STL -1.5: 37.4%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.000 / STL 1.097
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.920 / STL 1.115
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.3 - STL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.3 - STL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: SD 45.6% - STL 54.4% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +119 / STL -119
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +128 +118 +2.0%
STL ML -152 -118 -6.2%
SD +1.5 -162 -167 +0.8%
STL -1.5 +134 +167 -5.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 5.8 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 7.86 K/9: 7.97
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 1.9
FIP: 4.54 FIP: 4.73
IP: 65.7 IP: 81.0
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL CHC Lg Avg
Record 27-45 37-35
R/Game 4.57 4.57 4.48
RA/Game 5.82 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.731 0.722 0.717
wOBA 0.316 0.314 0.309
ERA 5.64 4.23 4.18
FIP 4.64 4.46 4.03
WHIP 1.52 1.25 1.31
K/9 7.38 8.02 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.391 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.21 3.58 4.08
BP FIP 4.25 4.30 3.97
BP WHIP 1.48 1.25
BP K/9 8.33 7.85
BP Quality* 54.3 50.4 45.2
BP IP 319.7 271.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eiberson Castellano (35 pitches yesterday)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Ethan Roberts (B2B, 32 pitches)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Rea (90 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9766 (Temp: 0.9924 | Wind: 0.9841)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.8 - CHC 5.6
Simulated Avg: COL 4.9 - CHC 5.6
Win Probability: COL 43.4% - CHC 56.6%
Fair Moneyline: COL +131 / CHC -131
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 9.5: 54.4%
Under 9.5: 45.6%
COL +1.5: 58.1%
CHC -1.5: 41.9%
Pitcher Adj: COL 1.167 / CHC 1.033
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.201 / CHC 1.115
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - CHC 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - CHC 3.0
F5 Win Prob: COL 44.5% - CHC 55.5% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +125 / CHC -125
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +176 +131 +7.1%
CHC ML -210 -131 -11.1%
COL +1.5 -122 -139 +3.1%
CHC -1.5 +102 +139 -7.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +2.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: MacKenzie Gore
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN TEX Lg Avg
Record 33-40 35-36
R/Game 4.63 4.01 4.48
RA/Game 5.21 3.93 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.701 0.717
wOBA 0.311 0.305 0.309
ERA 4.86 3.79 4.18
FIP 4.17 3.93 4.03
WHIP 1.39 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.29 8.47 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.510 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.22 3.36 4.08
BP FIP 4.33 3.87 3.97
BP WHIP 1.55 1.22
BP K/9 8.22 7.61
BP Quality* 57.1 41.6 45.2
BP IP 264.0 243.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0072 (Temp: 1.0108 | Wind: 0.9964)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.5 - TEX 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.6 - TEX 4.8
Win Probability: MIN 47.4% - TEX 52.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +111 / TEX -111
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.0: 54.8%
Under 8.0: 35.1%
MIN +1.5: 63.1%
TEX -1.5: 37.0%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.000 / TEX 0.952
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.263 / TEX 0.920
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.6 - TEX 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.6 - TEX 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIN 52.5% - TEX 47.5% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -111 / TEX +111
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +144 +111 +6.5%
TEX ML -172 -111 -10.7%
MIN +1.5 -152 -171 +2.7%
TEX -1.5 +126 +171 -7.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +2.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Troy Melton Home: Kai-Wei Teng
ERA: 2.77 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 6.84 K/9: 8.65
BB/9: 2.86 BB/9: 4.24
FIP: 4.58 FIP: 4.12
IP: 25.7 IP: 51.0
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 4.02
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Kai-Wei Teng)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET HOU Lg Avg
Record 29-42 33-40
R/Game 4.06 4.56 4.48
RA/Game 4.23 5.10 4.48
OPS 0.705 0.729 0.717
wOBA 0.307 0.312 0.309
ERA 3.94 4.91 4.18
FIP 3.80 4.59 4.03
WHIP 1.28 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.22 8.52 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.450 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.06 4.74 4.08
BP FIP 3.99 4.65 3.97
BP WHIP 1.38 1.41
BP K/9 8.49 8.45
BP Quality* 45.6 57.3 45.2
BP IP 268.3 288.7
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alimber Santa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 34%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9978 (Temp: 1.0104 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.3 - HOU 4.2
Simulated Avg: DET 4.3 - HOU 4.2
Win Probability: DET 50.7% - HOU 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: DET -103 / HOU +103
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 9.0: 35.8%
Under 9.0: 54.4%
DET +1.5: 67.6%
HOU -1.5: 32.4%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.831 / HOU 0.953
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.009 / HOU 1.268
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - HOU 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - HOU 2.1
F5 Win Prob: DET 49.8% - HOU 50.2% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +101 / HOU -101
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +108 -103 +2.7%
HOU ML -126 +103 -6.5%
DET +1.5 -194 -209 +1.6%
HOU -1.5 +160 +209 -6.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -16.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walbert Ureña Home: Ryne Nelson
ERA: 2.44 ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.95 K/9: 7.31
BB/9: 5.37 BB/9: 2.48
FIP: 3.84 FIP: 4.32
IP: 55.3 IP: 76.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ARI Lg Avg
Record 29-43 36-35
R/Game 4.49 4.23 4.48
RA/Game 5.01 4.51 4.48
OPS 0.708 0.691 0.717
wOBA 0.307 0.298 0.309
ERA 4.62 4.19 4.18
FIP 4.25 4.27 4.03
WHIP 1.43 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.95 7.16 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.449 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.81 4.06 4.08
BP FIP 4.64 3.81 3.97
BP WHIP 1.49 1.22
BP K/9 8.96 7.93
BP Quality* 58.1 48.1 45.2
BP IP 273.3 230.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (31 pitches yesterday)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0735 (Temp: 1.0303 | Wind: 1.0419)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.9 - ARI 4.6
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.8 - ARI 4.6
Win Probability: LAA 51.9% - ARI 48.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAA -108 / ARI +108
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.0: 45.6%
Under 9.0: 44.6%
LAA +1.5: 67.0%
ARI -1.5: 33.1%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.785 / ARI 0.988
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.285 / ARI 1.064
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.6 - ARI 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.6 - ARI 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 60.2% - ARI 39.8% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -151 / ARI +151
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +110 -108 +4.3%
ARI ML -130 +108 -8.4%
LAA +1.5 -200 -203 +0.3%
ARI -1.5 +164 +203 -4.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jared Jones Home: J.T. Ginn
ERA: 4.73 ERA: 4.42
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 9.45 K/9: 9.29
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 3.33
FIP: 4.08 FIP: 4.25
IP: 13.3 IP: 71.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ATH Lg Avg
Record 36-36 35-36
R/Game 4.99 4.51 4.48
RA/Game 4.79 5.23 4.48
OPS 0.737 0.747 0.717
wOBA 0.320 0.319 0.309
ERA 4.22 4.85 4.18
FIP 3.64 4.60 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.44 1.31
K/9 9.12 8.26 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 4.80 4.08
BP FIP 4.03 3.89 3.97
BP WHIP 1.40 1.41
BP K/9 9.26 8.77
BP Quality* 47.5 53.8 45.2
BP IP 280.0 281.3
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Scott Barlow (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Luis Medina (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brady Basso (41 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9799 (Temp: 0.9886 | Wind: 0.9912)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.3 - ATH 4.9
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.3 - ATH 4.9
Win Probability: PIT 53.2% - ATH 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -114 / ATH +114
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 10.5: 43.0%
Under 10.5: 57.0%
PIT -1.5: 38.9%
ATH +1.5: 61.1%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 1.058 / ATH 0.984
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.051 / ATH 1.190
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.7 - ATH 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.7 - ATH 2.7
F5 Win Prob: PIT 50.2% - ATH 49.8% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -101 / ATH +101
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +102 -114 +3.7%
ATH ML -120 +114 -7.8%
PIT -1.5 +152 +157 -0.8%
ATH +1.5 -184 -157 -3.7%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -9.4%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Eric Lauer (stats from ???, scheduled for LAD)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | June 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nick Martinez Home: Eric Lauer
ERA: 3.7 ERA: 3.77
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 5.85 K/9: 8.1
BB/9: 1.99 BB/9: 2.46
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 4.45
IP: 77.7 IP: 52.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB LAD Lg Avg
Record 41-27 45-27
R/Game 4.53 5.36 4.48
RA/Game 4.41 3.40 4.48
OPS 0.720 0.788 0.717
wOBA 0.311 0.337 0.309
ERA 3.95 3.37 4.18
FIP 4.04 3.53 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.09 1.31
K/9 7.98 9.11 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.697 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.68 3.87 4.08
BP FIP 4.65 3.46 3.97
BP WHIP 1.36 1.22
BP K/9 8.15 9.81
BP Quality* 55.0 43.9 45.2
BP IP 275.0 223.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (72 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Hernández (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9794 (Temp: 0.9930 | Wind: 0.9863)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.1 - LAD 5.5
Simulated Avg: TB 4.1 - LAD 5.5
Win Probability: TB 37.5% - LAD 62.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB +166 / LAD -166
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 46.2%
Under 9.0: 43.7%
TB +1.5: 52.8%
LAD -1.5: 47.2%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.935 / LAD 0.976
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.217 / LAD 0.971
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.3 - LAD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.3 - LAD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: TB 44.1% - LAD 55.9% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +127 / LAD -127
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML +140 +166 -4.1%
LAD ML -166 -166 +0.1%
TB +1.5 -137 -112 -5.0%
LAD -1.5 +114 +112 +0.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================