2026-06-16
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-16
Games: 15 | Plays: 6
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Phillips Home: Jesús Luzardo
ERA: 2.7 ERA: 4.09
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 6.17 K/9: 10.38
BB/9: 2.92 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 2.94
IP: 48.3 IP: 78.7
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 3.33
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
Record 36-37 39-33
R/Game 4.25 4.06 4.48
RA/Game 4.34 4.28 4.48
OPS 0.702 0.684 0.717
wOBA 0.306 0.296 0.309
ERA 4.11 4.05 4.18
FIP 3.75 3.45 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.82 9.46 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.52 3.90 4.08
BP FIP 3.41 3.18 3.97
BP WHIP 1.22 1.29
BP K/9 9.71 9.80
BP Quality* 44.3 43.2 45.1
BP IP 266.0 251.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: William Kempner (33 pitches yesterday)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9896 (Temp: 1.0065 | Wind: 0.9833)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.7 - PHI 3.8
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.7 - PHI 3.8
Win Probability: MIA 48.8% - PHI 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +105 / PHI -105
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.0: 34.6%
Under 8.0: 54.7%
MIA +1.5: 66.7%
PHI -1.5: 33.3%
Pitcher Adj: MIA 0.847 / PHI 0.805
Bullpen Adj: MIA 0.982 / PHI 0.958
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - PHI 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - PHI 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIA 48.9% - PHI 51.1% (Tie: 19.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +104 / PHI -104
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +146 +105 +8.1%
PHI ML -174 -105 -12.3%
MIA +1.5 -154 -200 +6.1%
PHI -1.5 +128 +200 -10.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -17.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +2.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Wacha Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 3.75 ERA: 3.46
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 6.77 K/9: 8.54
BB/9: 2.51 BB/9: 2.42
FIP: 3.7 FIP: 4.51
IP: 88.0 IP: 78.0
xERA: 4.16 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: KC (Michael Wacha)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC WSH Lg Avg
Record 29-44 38-35
R/Game 3.99 5.47 4.48
RA/Game 4.71 5.23 4.48
OPS 0.693 0.745 0.717
wOBA 0.301 0.319 0.309
ERA 4.48 4.64 4.18
FIP 4.44 4.60 4.03
WHIP 1.38 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.06 7.72 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.424 0.520 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.80 4.67 4.08
BP FIP 4.93 4.71 3.97
BP WHIP 1.51 1.41
BP K/9 8.43 7.03
BP Quality* 56.5 54.5 45.1
BP IP 251.0 350.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Black (36 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brad Lord (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0015 (Temp: 1.0126 | Wind: 0.9891)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.1 - WSH 5.8
Simulated Avg: KC 4.1 - WSH 5.8
Win Probability: KC 34.9% - WSH 65.1%
Fair Moneyline: KC +187 / WSH -187
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.5: 59.5%
Under 8.5: 40.5%
KC +1.5: 49.8%
WSH -1.5: 50.2%
Pitcher Adj: KC 0.927 / WSH 0.978
Bullpen Adj: KC 1.253 / WSH 1.208
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.1 - WSH 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.1 - WSH 2.8
F5 Win Prob: KC 38.5% - WSH 61.5% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +160 / WSH -160
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +114 +187 -11.8%
WSH ML -134 -187 +7.9%
KC +1.5 -184 +101 -15.0%
WSH -1.5 +152 -101 +10.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -11.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.72%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00786
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +152 | Edge: 10.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00787
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dylan Cease Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 3.99 ERA: 2.7
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 12.24 K/9: 9.11
BB/9: 3.72 BB/9: 2.36
FIP: 3.02 FIP: 2.59
IP: 68.0 IP: 53.3
xERA: 3.46 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BOS Lg Avg
Record 34-38 29-40
R/Game 4.07 4.03 4.48
RA/Game 4.38 4.09 4.48
OPS 0.703 0.698 0.717
wOBA 0.303 0.303 0.309
ERA 4.12 3.91 4.18
FIP 3.76 3.83 4.03
WHIP 1.27 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.06 8.60 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.493 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.95 3.09 4.08
BP FIP 3.67 3.66 3.97
BP WHIP 1.26 1.18
BP K/9 9.13 8.90
BP Quality* 42.6 39.1 45.1
BP IP 307.7 262.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0117 (Temp: 1.0033 | Wind: 1.0084)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.5 - BOS 3.8
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.5 - BOS 3.8
Win Probability: TOR 46.5% - BOS 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +115 / BOS -115
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.5: 43.1%
Under 7.5: 56.9%
TOR -1.5: 28.8%
BOS +1.5: 71.2%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 0.817 / BOS 0.800
Bullpen Adj: TOR 0.945 / BOS 0.867
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.9 - BOS 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.9 - BOS 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TOR 49.1% - BOS 50.9% (Tie: 19.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +104 / BOS -104
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -120 +115 -8.1%
BOS ML +102 -115 +4.0%
TOR -1.5 +146 +247 -11.9%
BOS +1.5 -178 -247 +7.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -9.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +4.5%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Boston Red Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-178]
Model: 71.2% | Market: 64.0% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -247 | Kelly: 4.98%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00788
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Davis Martin Home: Gerrit Cole
ERA: 3.47 ERA: 2.45
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 7.5 K/9: 7.36
BB/9: 2.63 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 4.05
IP: 78.3 IP: 22.0
xERA: 5.13 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS NYY Lg Avg
Record 38-32 43-27
R/Game 4.76 5.11 4.48
RA/Game 4.59 3.59 4.48
OPS 0.737 0.763 0.717
wOBA 0.316 0.327 0.309
ERA 4.29 3.32 4.18
FIP 4.17 3.51 4.03
WHIP 1.32 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.28 8.69 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.657 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 3.38 4.08
BP FIP 4.28 3.52 3.97
BP WHIP 1.33 1.27
BP K/9 8.40 8.72
BP Quality* 47.2 41.7 45.1
BP IP 317.0 237.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9835 (Temp: 0.9960 | Wind: 0.9875)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 3.7 - NYY 5.2
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.7 - NYY 5.2
Win Probability: CWS 35.1% - NYY 64.9%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +185 / NYY -185
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.6%
Under 7.5: 40.4%
CWS +1.5: 51.1%
NYY -1.5: 48.9%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 0.985 / NYY 0.711
Bullpen Adj: CWS 1.047 / NYY 0.925
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 1.8 - NYY 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.8 - NYY 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 33.6% - NYY 66.4% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +197 / NYY -197
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +122 +185 -10.0%
NYY ML -144 -185 +5.9%
CWS +1.5 -192 -105 -14.6%
NYY -1.5 +155 +105 +9.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.0%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 2 (2 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.80%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00789
[STANDARD EDGE] New York Yankees -1.5 (Run Line) [+155]
Model: 48.9% | Market: 39.2% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: +105 | Kelly: 3.97%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00790
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kodai Senga Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 4.62
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 8.9 K/9: 8.01
BB/9: 4.58 BB/9: 3.09
FIP: 4.29 FIP: 4.62
IP: 20.0 IP: 61.0
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Kodai Senga)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CIN Lg Avg
Record 32-40 34-37
R/Game 4.00 4.30 4.48
RA/Game 4.32 4.94 4.48
OPS 0.664 0.709 0.717
wOBA 0.287 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.96 4.61 4.18
FIP 3.70 4.88 4.03
WHIP 1.27 1.46 1.31
K/9 9.07 7.92 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.38 4.95 4.08
BP FIP 3.59 5.06 3.97
BP WHIP 1.19 1.55
BP K/9 9.04 8.57
BP Quality* 44.2 58.1 45.1
BP IP 314.7 273.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Pintaro (55 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: David Peterson (54 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Petty (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9870 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 0.9804)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.8 - CIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.8 - CIN 4.4
Win Probability: NYM 53.5% - CIN 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -115 / CIN +115
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.5: 43.4%
Under 9.5: 56.6%
NYM -1.5: 37.8%
CIN +1.5: 62.2%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.939 / CIN 1.076
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.980 / CIN 1.288
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.5 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.5 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: NYM 52.4% - CIN 47.6% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -110 / CIN +110
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -124 -115 -1.9%
CIN ML +106 +115 -2.0%
NYM -1.5 +128 +164 -6.0%
CIN +1.5 -154 -164 +1.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +4.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Adrian Houser Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 4.14 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 6.53 K/9: 9.01
BB/9: 2.96 BB/9: 4.11
FIP: 4.1 FIP: 4.55
IP: 65.0 IP: 66.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.55
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: SF (Adrian Houser)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF ATL Lg Avg
Record 29-43 46-25
R/Game 4.11 5.06 4.48
RA/Game 4.89 3.55 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.744 0.717
wOBA 0.308 0.320 0.309
ERA 4.52 3.29 4.18
FIP 4.16 3.77 4.03
WHIP 1.40 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.06 8.83 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.421 0.656 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.35 2.82 4.08
BP FIP 4.35 3.32 3.97
BP WHIP 1.45 1.11
BP K/9 7.69 9.13
BP Quality* 50.6 36.0 45.1
BP IP 250.3 252.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 47%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9858 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 0.9858)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.9 - ATL 5.4
Simulated Avg: SF 3.9 - ATL 5.4
Win Probability: SF 35.5% - ATL 64.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +181 / ATL -181
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 43.1%
Under 9.0: 47.1%
SF +1.5: 51.5%
ATL -1.5: 48.5%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.978 / ATL 1.056
Bullpen Adj: SF 1.122 / ATL 0.798
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.4 - ATL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.4 - ATL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SF 43.7% - ATL 56.3% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +129 / ATL -129
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +140 +181 -6.1%
ATL ML -166 -181 +2.1%
SF +1.5 -152 -106 -8.8%
ATL -1.5 +126 +106 +4.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -9.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Slade Cecconi Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 4.51 ERA: 6.38
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 7.48 K/9: 9.33
BB/9: 2.45 BB/9: 4.42
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 6.76
IP: 72.7 IP: 18.3
xERA: 4.99 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Slade Cecconi)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE MIL Lg Avg
Record 39-33 43-26
R/Game 4.01 5.36 4.48
RA/Game 4.06 3.74 4.48
OPS 0.689 0.734 0.717
wOBA 0.299 0.316 0.309
ERA 3.75 3.45 4.18
FIP 3.85 3.38 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.21 1.31
K/9 9.28 9.82 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.495 0.659 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.68 3.51 4.08
BP FIP 3.44 3.47 3.97
BP WHIP 1.28 1.30
BP K/9 10.32 9.32
BP Quality* 40.6 40.6 45.1
BP IP 242.3 274.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), crosswind (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9965 (Temp: 0.9953 | Wind: 1.0012)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.0 - MIL 5.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.0 - MIL 5.5
Win Probability: CLE 35.5% - MIL 64.5%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +182 / MIL -182
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 55.2%
Under 8.0: 34.8%
CLE +1.5: 51.1%
MIL -1.5: 48.9%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 1.108 / MIL 1.106
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.900 / MIL 0.900
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.4 - MIL 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.4 - MIL 3.3
F5 Win Prob: CLE 37.5% - MIL 62.5% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +167 / MIL -167
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +130 +182 -8.0%
MIL ML -154 -182 +3.9%
CLE +1.5 -176 -104 -12.7%
MIL -1.5 +146 +104 +8.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +2.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [+146]
Model: 48.9% | Market: 40.7% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: +104 | Kelly: 3.49%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00791
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael King Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 4.78
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 8.81 K/9: 6.54
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 3.36
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 4.44
IP: 80.7 IP: 69.7
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD STL Lg Avg
Record 37-34 39-31
R/Game 3.83 4.60 4.48
RA/Game 4.01 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.652 0.722 0.717
wOBA 0.282 0.311 0.309
ERA 3.90 4.09 4.18
FIP 3.87 4.09 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.33 1.31
K/9 8.49 7.76 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.10 4.21 4.08
BP FIP 3.20 3.98 3.97
BP WHIP 1.22 1.35
BP K/9 9.41 8.23
BP Quality* 43.3 47.4 45.1
BP IP 287.0 254.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Giolito (85 pitches yesterday)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9980 (Temp: 1.0107 | Wind: 0.9875)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.9 - STL 4.5
Simulated Avg: SD 4.0 - STL 4.5
Win Probability: SD 44.7% - STL 55.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD +124 / STL -124
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 44.8%
Under 8.0: 44.5%
SD -1.5: 28.7%
STL +1.5: 71.3%
Pitcher Adj: SD 0.961 / STL 1.071
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.960 / STL 1.051
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - STL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - STL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SD 46.1% - STL 53.9% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +117 / STL -117
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -104 +124 -6.3%
STL ML -112 -124 +2.5%
SD -1.5 +162 +248 -9.4%
STL +1.5 -196 -248 +5.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Feltner Home: Edward Cabrera
ERA: 4.85 ERA: 3.99
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.2 K/9: 9.29
BB/9: 3.48 BB/9: 3.19
FIP: 4.47 FIP: 4.07
IP: 36.3 IP: 63.0
xERA: 3.31 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.284 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Edward Cabrera)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL CHC Lg Avg
Record 27-46 38-35
R/Game 4.56 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 5.81 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.726 0.717
wOBA 0.316 0.316 0.309
ERA 5.63 4.23 4.18
FIP 4.65 4.45 4.03
WHIP 1.53 1.25 1.31
K/9 7.40 8.04 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.391 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.24 3.63 4.08
BP FIP 4.29 4.32 3.97
BP WHIP 1.51 1.25
BP K/9 8.34 7.95
BP Quality* 56.4 50.7 45.1
BP IP 322.7 275.0
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9876 (Temp: 0.9918 | Wind: 0.9957)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.7 - CHC 5.3
Simulated Avg: COL 4.7 - CHC 5.3
Win Probability: COL 45.2% - CHC 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: COL +121 / CHC -121
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 9.5: 50.7%
Under 9.5: 49.3%
COL +1.5: 60.2%
CHC -1.5: 39.8%
Pitcher Adj: COL 0.995 / CHC 0.966
Bullpen Adj: COL 1.251 / CHC 1.124
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.5 - CHC 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.5 - CHC 2.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 48.1% - CHC 51.9% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +108 / CHC -108
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +160 +121 +6.7%
CHC ML -190 -121 -10.7%
COL +1.5 -125 -151 +4.6%
CHC -1.5 +104 +151 -9.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -1.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 5.5 ERA: 4.99
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 9.54 K/9: 7.59
BB/9: 2.64 BB/9: 3.43
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 4.43
IP: 36.3 IP: 65.7
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 5.73
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.364
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Zebby Matthews)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN TEX Lg Avg
Record 34-40 35-37
R/Game 4.62 3.99 4.48
RA/Game 5.16 3.93 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.699 0.717
wOBA 0.310 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.82 3.79 4.18
FIP 4.16 3.94 4.03
WHIP 1.38 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.28 8.51 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.450 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.13 3.33 4.08
BP FIP 4.27 3.85 3.97
BP WHIP 1.53 1.21
BP K/9 8.25 7.58
BP Quality* 54.9 42.8 45.1
BP IP 268.3 245.7
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0068 (Temp: 1.0216 | Wind: 0.9855)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.3 - TEX 5.0
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.3 - TEX 5.0
Win Probability: MIN 52.9% - TEX 47.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -112 / TEX +112
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.5: 62.9%
Under 8.5: 37.1%
MIN +1.5: 67.2%
TEX -1.5: 32.8%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.101 / TEX 1.202
Bullpen Adj: MIN 1.217 / TEX 0.949
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.3 - TEX 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.2 - TEX 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIN 58.2% - TEX 41.8% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -139 / TEX +139
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +114 -112 +6.2%
TEX ML -134 +112 -10.2%
MIN +1.5 -192 -205 +1.5%
TEX -1.5 +158 +205 -6.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00792
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Framber Valdez Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 2.34
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 8.09 K/9: 10.25
BB/9: 3.26 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 2.91
IP: 77.7 IP: 10.7
xERA: 3.79 xERA: 3.14
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.277
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hunter Brown)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET HOU Lg Avg
Record 30-42 33-41
R/Game 4.12 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 4.21 5.15 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.730 0.717
wOBA 0.309 0.312 0.309
ERA 3.93 4.95 4.18
FIP 3.82 4.63 4.03
WHIP 1.28 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.25 8.65 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.491 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 4.74 4.08
BP FIP 4.04 4.67 3.97
BP WHIP 1.37 1.41
BP K/9 8.45 8.56
BP Quality* 48.7 57.3 45.1
BP IP 274.7 294.3
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Alimber Santa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jayden Murray (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0029 (Temp: 1.0110 | Wind: 0.9921)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.3 - HOU 4.5
Simulated Avg: DET 4.3 - HOU 4.5
Win Probability: DET 48.1% - HOU 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: DET +108 / HOU -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 49.7%
Under 8.0: 40.1%
DET +1.5: 64.5%
HOU -1.5: 35.5%
Pitcher Adj: DET 0.899 / HOU 0.934
Bullpen Adj: DET 1.080 / HOU 1.271
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - HOU 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - HOU 2.3
F5 Win Prob: DET 47.0% - HOU 52.9% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +113 / HOU -113
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML +140 +108 +6.4%
HOU ML -166 -108 -10.5%
DET +1.5 -160 -181 +2.9%
HOU -1.5 +132 +181 -7.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Reid Detmers Home: Merrill Kelly
ERA: 3.98 ERA: 4.13
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 11.1 K/9: 7.27
BB/9: 3.19 BB/9: 2.8
FIP: 2.88 FIP: 4.36
IP: 81.0 IP: 64.3
xERA: 3.61 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ARI Lg Avg
Record 29-44 37-35
R/Game 4.47 4.22 4.48
RA/Game 5.00 4.49 4.48
OPS 0.708 0.692 0.717
wOBA 0.307 0.298 0.309
ERA 4.61 4.17 4.18
FIP 4.26 4.28 4.03
WHIP 1.43 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.88 7.16 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.79 4.07 4.08
BP FIP 4.65 3.84 3.97
BP WHIP 1.49 1.22
BP K/9 8.92 7.94
BP Quality* 53.6 46.7 45.1
BP IP 274.3 232.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.5 - ARI 4.2
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.5 - ARI 4.2
Win Probability: LAA 52.8% - ARI 47.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAA -112 / ARI +112
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.2%
Under 8.5: 51.8%
LAA -1.5: 36.7%
ARI +1.5: 63.3%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.816 / ARI 1.013
Bullpen Adj: LAA 1.188 / ARI 1.035
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.5 - ARI 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.5 - ARI 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAA 60.1% - ARI 39.9% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -151 / ARI +151
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML -106 -112 +1.4%
ARI ML -110 +112 -5.2%
LAA -1.5 +146 +173 -4.0%
ARI +1.5 -178 -173 -0.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mitch Keller Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 4.57 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 8.73
BB/9: 2.82 BB/9: 4.12
FIP: 3.75 FIP: 3.89
IP: 77.0 IP: 36.0
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ATH Lg Avg
Record 36-37 36-36
R/Game 4.95 4.60 4.48
RA/Game 4.88 5.18 4.48
OPS 0.736 0.752 0.717
wOBA 0.320 0.321 0.309
ERA 4.26 4.80 4.18
FIP 3.67 4.59 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.43 1.31
K/9 9.11 8.23 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.78 4.08
BP FIP 4.04 3.91 3.97
BP WHIP 1.40 1.41
BP K/9 9.25 8.77
BP Quality* 48.9 50.8 45.1
BP IP 284.0 284.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (75 pitches yesterday)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Scott Barlow (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Barnett (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9780 (Temp: 0.9890 | Wind: 0.9890)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.0 - ATH 4.9
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.9 - ATH 4.9
Win Probability: PIT 50.1% - ATH 49.9%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -100 / ATH +100
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 10.5: 39.9%
Under 10.5: 60.1%
PIT +1.5: 64.9%
ATH -1.5: 35.1%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 1.005 / ATH 0.935
Bullpen Adj: PIT 1.084 / ATH 1.126
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.6 - ATH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.5 - ATH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PIT 49.1% - ATH 50.9% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +104 / ATH -104
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +118 -100 +4.2%
ATH ML -138 +100 -8.1%
PIT +1.5 -170 -185 +1.9%
ATH -1.5 +140 +185 -6.6%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -12.5%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +7.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 10.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.7%
Fair ML: -151 | Kelly: 4.06%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00793
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Young Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 5.33 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 7.16 K/9: 10.84
BB/9: 3.32 BB/9: 2.14
FIP: 4.95 FIP: 3.44
IP: 56.3 IP: 79.7
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL SEA Lg Avg
Record 34-39 37-36
R/Game 4.70 4.26 4.48
RA/Game 5.15 3.99 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.713 0.717
wOBA 0.314 0.309 0.309
ERA 4.59 3.69 4.18
FIP 4.29 3.49 4.03
WHIP 1.40 1.20 1.31
K/9 7.77 8.67 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.458 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 3.46 4.08
BP FIP 3.93 3.41 3.97
BP WHIP 1.34 1.33
BP K/9 8.38 8.64
BP Quality* 46.6 43.5 45.1
BP IP 274.0 234.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0246 (Temp: 0.9909 | Wind: 1.0340)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 3.8 - SEA 4.6
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.9 - SEA 4.6
Win Probability: BAL 42.1% - SEA 57.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +138 / SEA -138
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.2%
Under 7.5: 43.8%
BAL +1.5: 59.0%
SEA -1.5: 41.0%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 1.150 / SEA 0.798
Bullpen Adj: BAL 1.033 / SEA 0.965
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.0 - SEA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.0 - SEA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: BAL 38.6% - SEA 61.4% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +159 / SEA -159
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +130 +138 -1.4%
SEA ML -154 -138 -2.7%
BAL +1.5 -176 -144 -4.8%
SEA -1.5 +146 +144 +0.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | June 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Justin Wrobleski
ERA: 2.74 ERA: 3.89
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.31 K/9: 8.77
BB/9: 1.99 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 3.43 FIP: 3.02
IP: 73.0 IP: 73.3
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Justin Wrobleski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB LAD Lg Avg
Record 41-28 46-27
R/Game 4.51 5.34 4.48
RA/Game 4.41 3.40 4.48
OPS 0.720 0.787 0.717
wOBA 0.311 0.336 0.309
ERA 3.96 3.36 4.18
FIP 4.05 3.54 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.09 1.31
K/9 8.01 9.08 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.696 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.67 3.82 4.08
BP FIP 4.67 3.43 3.97
BP WHIP 1.36 1.22
BP K/9 8.17 9.80
BP Quality* 55.1 42.1 45.1
BP IP 277.7 226.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9832 (Temp: 0.9921 | Wind: 0.9911)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.6 - LAD 5.0
Simulated Avg: TB 3.6 - LAD 5.0
Win Probability: TB 35.8% - LAD 64.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB +179 / LAD -179
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 47.3%
Under 8.5: 52.7%
TB +1.5: 52.5%
LAD -1.5: 47.5%
Pitcher Adj: TB 0.783 / LAD 0.809
Bullpen Adj: TB 1.222 / LAD 0.933
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.9 - LAD 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.9 - LAD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TB 43.5% - LAD 56.5% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +130 / LAD -130
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +126 +179 -8.4%
LAD ML -148 -179 +4.5%
TB +1.5 -178 -110 -11.5%
LAD -1.5 +146 +110 +6.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================