2026-06-20
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-20
Games: 14 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Newcomb Home: Troy Melton
ERA: 2.73 ERA: 2.77
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 8.87 K/9: 6.84
BB/9: 3.02 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 2.84 FIP: 4.58
IP: 42.3 IP: 25.7
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Newcomb)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS DET Lg Avg
Record 39-35 31-44
R/Game 4.70 4.07 4.49
RA/Game 4.70 4.19 4.49
OPS 0.736 0.706 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.43 3.89 4.19
FIP 4.24 3.82 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.32 8.26 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.487 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9796 (Temp: 1.0066 | Wind: 0.9732)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.0 - DET 3.5
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.0 - DET 3.5
Win Probability: CWS 55.8% - DET 44.2%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -126 / DET +126
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 9.0: 25.4%
Under 9.0: 65.7%
CWS +1.5: 73.2%
DET -1.5: 26.8%
Pitcher Adj: CWS 0.758 / DET 0.821
Bullpen Adj: CWS 0.998 / DET 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.1 - DET 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.1 - DET 1.7
F5 Win Prob: CWS 58.0% - DET 42.0% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -138 / DET +138
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +108 -126 +7.7%
DET ML -130 +126 -12.3%
CWS +1.5 -187 -273 +8.0%
DET -1.5 +154 +273 -12.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -27.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +13.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-187]
Model: 73.2% | Market: 65.2% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -273 | Kelly: 5.76%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00818
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00819
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Will Warren
ERA: 3.33 ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.41 K/9: 9.45
BB/9: 3.08 BB/9: 3.35
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 3.68
IP: 79.7 IP: 72.7
xERA: 3.56 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Will Warren)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN NYY Lg Avg
Record 35-39 46-28
R/Game 4.20 5.22 4.49
RA/Game 4.97 3.55 4.49
OPS 0.702 0.775 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.331 0.310
ERA 4.66 3.30 4.19
FIP 4.87 3.48 4.05
WHIP 1.47 1.17 1.31
K/9 7.90 8.87 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.424 0.669 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), strong wind in (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9836 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 0.9683)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.0 - NYY 4.9
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.0 - NYY 4.9
Win Probability: CIN 40.9% - NYY 59.1%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +144 / NYY -144
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.5: 39.5%
Under 9.5: 60.5%
CIN +1.5: 57.6%
NYY -1.5: 42.4%
Pitcher Adj: CIN 0.887 / NYY 0.976
Bullpen Adj: CIN 0.998 / NYY 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.2 - NYY 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.2 - NYY 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CIN 44.6% - NYY 55.4% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +124 / NYY -124
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +164 +144 +3.1%
NYY ML -201 -144 -7.7%
CIN +1.5 -120 -136 +3.0%
NYY -1.5 -101 +136 -7.8%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -12.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +8.1%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.1%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.25%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00820
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Patrick Corbin Home: Colin Rea
ERA: 4.46 ERA: 4.39
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.13 K/9: 7.06
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 4.16 FIP: 4.24
IP: 61.0 IP: 74.0
xERA: 4.77 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR CHC Lg Avg
Record 37-39 40-36
R/Game 4.05 4.74 4.49
RA/Game 4.41 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.703 0.737 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.320 0.310
ERA 4.11 4.23 4.19
FIP 3.83 4.50 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.24 1.31
K/9 8.96 7.95 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0260 (Temp: 1.0063 | Wind: 1.0196)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.3 - CHC 5.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.3 - CHC 5.4
Win Probability: TOR 40.5% - CHC 59.5%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +147 / CHC -147
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.5: 47.5%
Under 9.5: 52.4%
TOR +1.5: 55.9%
CHC -1.5: 44.1%
Pitcher Adj: TOR 1.062 / CHC 1.043
Bullpen Adj: TOR 0.998 / CHC 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.5 - CHC 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.5 - CHC 3.0
F5 Win Prob: TOR 41.6% - CHC 58.4% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +140 / CHC -140
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +113 +147 -6.5%
CHC ML -136 -147 +1.9%
TOR +1.5 -185 -127 -9.1%
CHC -1.5 +152 +127 +4.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -4.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walker Buehler Home: Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 4.61 ERA: 2.73
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 7.04 K/9: 8.78
BB/9: 3.79 BB/9: 1.73
FIP: 4.54 FIP: 3.34
IP: 67.3 IP: 87.3
xERA: 5.41 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD TEX Lg Avg
Record 38-36 36-39
R/Game 3.88 4.01 4.49
RA/Game 4.03 4.15 4.49
OPS 0.656 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.284 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.92 3.96 4.19
FIP 3.88 4.03 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.33 8.49 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0229 (Temp: 1.0210 | Wind: 1.0018)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 3.5 - TEX 4.8
Simulated Avg: SD 3.5 - TEX 4.9
Win Probability: SD 35.6% - TEX 64.4%
Fair Moneyline: SD +181 / TEX -181
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.6%
Under 7.5: 45.4%
SD +1.5: 52.9%
TEX -1.5: 47.1%
Pitcher Adj: SD 1.160 / TEX 0.732
Bullpen Adj: SD 0.998 / TEX 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 1.7 - TEX 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.7 - TEX 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SD 30.5% - TEX 69.5% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +228 / TEX -228
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +113 +181 -11.4%
TEX ML -136 -181 +6.8%
SD +1.5 -193 -112 -13.0%
TEX -1.5 +158 +112 +8.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Texas Rangers -1.5 (Run Line) [+158]
Model: 47.1% | Market: 38.8% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: +112 | Kelly: 3.40%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00821
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cade Cavalli Home: Ian Seymour
ERA: 4.13 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 8.41 K/9: 10.08
BB/9: 2.87 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 3.71 FIP: 3.08
IP: 74.7 IP: 38.3
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: TB (Ian Seymour)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH TB Lg Avg
Record 39-37 42-30
R/Game 5.38 4.44 4.49
RA/Game 5.22 4.33 4.49
OPS 0.742 0.714 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.66 3.92 4.19
FIP 4.67 4.07 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.24 1.31
K/9 7.61 7.98 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.75 0.00 0.16
BP FIP 4.77 0.00 0.16
BP WHIP 1.42 0.00
BP K/9 6.90 0.00
BP Quality* 52.1 50.0 50.1
BP IP 363.7 0.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.6 - TB 4.3
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.6 - TB 4.3
Win Probability: WSH 52.3% - TB 47.7%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -110 / TB +110
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 49.5%
Under 8.0: 40.1%
WSH +1.5: 68.4%
TB -1.5: 31.6%
Pitcher Adj: WSH 0.946 / TB 0.843
Bullpen Adj: WSH 1.040 / TB 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.4 - TB 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.4 - TB 2.3
F5 Win Prob: WSH 52.6% - TB 47.4% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -111 / TB +111
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +104 -110 +3.3%
TB ML -125 +110 -7.9%
WSH +1.5 -205 -216 +1.2%
TB -1.5 +168 +216 -5.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor McDonald Home: Max Meyer
ERA: 4.64 ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.65 K/9: 9.72
BB/9: 3.16 BB/9: 3.04
FIP: 3.45 FIP: 3.79
IP: 42.7 IP: 85.0
xERA: 3.21 xERA: 4.8
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: SF (Trevor McDonald)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF MIA Lg Avg
Record 31-44 38-38
R/Game 4.17 4.32 4.49
RA/Game 4.84 4.37 4.49
OPS 0.729 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.49 4.13 4.19
FIP 4.13 3.76 4.05
WHIP 1.40 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.12 8.80 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.433 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0038 (Temp: 1.0203 | Wind: 0.9839)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.8 - MIA 3.8
Simulated Avg: SF 3.8 - MIA 3.8
Win Probability: SF 49.7% - MIA 50.3%
Fair Moneyline: SF +101 / MIA -101
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.0: 36.2%
Under 8.0: 53.3%
SF +1.5: 67.6%
MIA -1.5: 32.4%
Pitcher Adj: SF 0.874 / MIA 0.994
Bullpen Adj: SF 0.998 / MIA 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.1 - MIA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.1 - MIA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SF 52.8% - MIA 47.2% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -112 / MIA +112
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +119 +101 +4.1%
MIA ML -143 -101 -8.6%
SF +1.5 -186 -208 +2.5%
MIA -1.5 +153 +208 -7.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -16.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +0.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 3.46 ERA: 2.48
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 10.1 K/9: 11.36
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 2.29
FIP: 3.33 FIP: 2.43
IP: 65.7 IP: 78.3
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 2.84
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.264
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL ATL Lg Avg
Record 45-28 47-27
R/Game 5.27 4.99 4.49
RA/Game 3.70 3.62 4.49
OPS 0.736 0.741 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.318 0.310
ERA 3.43 3.38 4.19
FIP 3.41 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.20 1.20 1.31
K/9 9.89 8.70 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.657 0.642 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0399 (Temp: 1.0224 | Wind: 1.0172)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.2 - ATL 5.0
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.2 - ATL 5.0
Win Probability: MIL 42.6% - ATL 57.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +135 / ATL -135
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 7.0: 63.2%
Under 7.0: 26.8%
MIL +1.5: 58.5%
ATL -1.5: 41.5%
Pitcher Adj: MIL 0.872 / ATL 0.617
Bullpen Adj: MIL 0.998 / ATL 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 1.9 - ATL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 1.9 - ATL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 38.3% - ATL 61.7% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +161 / ATL -161
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML +109 +135 -5.3%
ATL ML -132 -135 +0.5%
MIL +1.5 -204 -141 -8.6%
ATL -1.5 +167 +141 +4.0%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +10.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -25.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00822
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Spencer Arrighetti
ERA: 3.71 ERA: 4.48
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 9.42 K/9: 8.11
BB/9: 4.2 BB/9: 4.93
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 4.65
IP: 72.0 IP: 63.0
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 5.44
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.356
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Joey Cantillo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE HOU Lg Avg
Record 40-36 36-41
R/Game 3.96 4.58 4.49
RA/Game 4.13 5.04 4.49
OPS 0.684 0.735 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.85 4.85 4.19
FIP 3.90 4.55 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.41 1.31
K/9 9.33 8.74 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 21%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9846 (Temp: 1.0055 | Wind: 0.9792)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 4.2 - HOU 4.4
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.2 - HOU 4.4
Win Probability: CLE 48.1% - HOU 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +108 / HOU -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 46.1%
Under 8.5: 53.9%
CLE +1.5: 64.7%
HOU -1.5: 35.3%
Pitcher Adj: CLE 0.916 / HOU 1.166
Bullpen Adj: CLE 0.998 / HOU 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.5 - HOU 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.5 - HOU 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CLE 53.3% - HOU 46.7% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -114 / HOU +114
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +119 +108 +2.4%
HOU ML -144 -108 -7.1%
CLE +1.5 -172 -183 +1.4%
HOU -1.5 +142 +183 -6.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -6.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 3.21 ERA: 2.21
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 9.7 K/9: 9.92
BB/9: 3.45 BB/9: 1.86
FIP: 3.65 FIP: 2.3
IP: 83.0 IP: 99.0
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 3.02
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM PHI Lg Avg
Record 34-41 40-35
R/Game 4.08 4.11 4.49
RA/Game 4.28 4.37 4.49
OPS 0.671 0.685 0.719
wOBA 0.290 0.296 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.10 4.19
FIP 3.67 3.55 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.15 9.48 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0097 (Temp: 1.0112 | Wind: 0.9985)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.2 - PHI 3.9
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.2 - PHI 3.9
Win Probability: NYM 41.3% - PHI 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +142 / PHI -142
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.5: 40.9%
Under 7.5: 59.1%
NYM +1.5: 60.6%
PHI -1.5: 39.4%
Pitcher Adj: NYM 0.826 / PHI 0.604
Bullpen Adj: NYM 0.998 / PHI 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 1.4 - PHI 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.4 - PHI 2.0
F5 Win Prob: NYM 37.5% - PHI 62.5% (Tie: 20.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +167 / PHI -167
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +159 +142 +2.7%
PHI ML -194 -142 -7.3%
NYM +1.5 -137 -154 +2.8%
PHI -1.5 +114 +154 -7.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -11.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Paul Skenes Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 2.35 ERA: 4.6
WHIP: 0.94 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 10.58 K/9: 5.66
BB/9: 1.9 BB/9: 2.32
FIP: 2.36 FIP: 5.18
IP: 82.0 IP: 73.3
xERA: 2.65 xERA: 5.81
xwOBA: 0.255 xwOBA: 0.366
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT COL Lg Avg
Record 38-38 29-47
R/Game 5.03 4.58 4.49
RA/Game 4.86 5.75 4.49
OPS 0.744 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.322 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.22 5.55 4.19
FIP 3.70 4.62 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.53 1.31
K/9 9.12 7.42 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.397 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0114 (Temp: 1.0210 | Wind: 0.9906)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 6.6 - COL 4.1
Simulated Avg: PIT 6.6 - COL 4.1
Win Probability: PIT 70.3% - COL 29.7%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -237 / COL +237
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 10.5: 47.3%
Under 10.5: 52.7%
PIT -1.5: 56.9%
COL +1.5: 43.1%
Pitcher Adj: PIT 0.587 / COL 1.254
Bullpen Adj: PIT 0.998 / COL 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 4.0 - COL 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 4.0 - COL 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PIT 80.1% - COL 19.9% (Tie: 11.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -402 / COL +402
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -218 -237 +1.8%
COL ML +178 +237 -6.3%
PIT -1.5 -136 -132 -0.7%
COL +1.5 +113 +132 -3.9%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -5.0%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +0.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walbert Ureña Home: J.T. Ginn
ERA: 2.6 ERA: 4.27
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.37 K/9: 9.14
BB/9: 5.05 BB/9: 3.32
FIP: 3.97 FIP: 4.21
IP: 62.3 IP: 77.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ATH Lg Avg
Record 30-47 38-38
R/Game 4.48 4.70 4.49
RA/Game 5.06 5.29 4.49
OPS 0.715 0.755 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.323 0.310
ERA 4.69 4.92 4.19
FIP 4.34 4.65 4.05
WHIP 1.44 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.75 8.34 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9712 (Temp: 0.9874 | Wind: 0.9836)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.3 - ATH 4.3
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.3 - ATH 4.3
Win Probability: LAA 50.0% - ATH 50.0%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +100 / ATH -100
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 9.5: 36.2%
Under 9.5: 63.7%
LAA +1.5: 66.6%
ATH -1.5: 33.4%
Pitcher Adj: LAA 0.817 / ATH 0.969
Bullpen Adj: LAA 0.998 / ATH 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.4 - ATH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.4 - ATH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: LAA 54.8% - ATH 45.2% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -121 / ATH +121
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +141 +100 +8.5%
ATH ML -171 -100 -13.1%
LAA +1.5 -136 -199 +9.0%
ATH -1.5 +113 +199 -13.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -16.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +11.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line) [-136]
Model: 66.6% | Market: 57.6% | Edge: 9.0%
Fair ML: -199 | Kelly: 5.30%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00823
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00824
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 2.5
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 7.74 K/9: 9.67
BB/9: 2.61 BB/9: 2.51
FIP: 3.36 FIP: 3.01
IP: 66.0 IP: 85.7
xERA: 3.41 xERA: 2.74
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.259
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL LAD Lg Avg
Record 35-42 49-27
R/Game 4.60 5.29 4.49
RA/Game 5.08 3.38 4.49
OPS 0.719 0.787 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.337 0.310
ERA 4.55 3.35 4.19
FIP 4.25 3.52 4.05
WHIP 1.40 1.08 1.31
K/9 7.90 9.05 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.694 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9776 (Temp: 0.9902 | Wind: 0.9873)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 3.4 - LAD 4.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.4 - LAD 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 38.1% - LAD 61.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +162 / LAD -162
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.0: 39.6%
Under 8.0: 49.7%
BAL +1.5: 56.0%
LAD -1.5: 44.0%
Pitcher Adj: BAL 0.803 / LAD 0.665
Bullpen Adj: BAL 0.998 / LAD 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 1.6 - LAD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.6 - LAD 2.2
F5 Win Prob: BAL 37.1% - LAD 62.9% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +169 / LAD -169
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +209 +162 +5.8%
LAD ML -259 -162 -10.3%
BAL +1.5 +100 -128 +6.0%
LAD -1.5 -121 +128 -10.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Connelly Early Home: Emerson Hancock
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 4.25
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 8.56 K/9: 7.23
BB/9: 3.45 BB/9: 2.63
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 4.39
IP: 75.7 IP: 79.7
xERA: 2.35 xERA: 5.51
xwOBA: 0.24 xwOBA: 0.358
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Emerson Hancock)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS SEA Lg Avg
Record 30-43 39-38
R/Game 3.95 4.18 4.49
RA/Game 4.07 3.94 4.49
OPS 0.695 0.705 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.90 3.64 4.19
FIP 3.86 3.43 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.55 8.78 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.528 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9841 (Temp: 0.9953 | Wind: 0.9887)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.9 - SEA 3.7
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.9 - SEA 3.6
Win Probability: BOS 51.8% - SEA 48.2%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -107 / SEA +107
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 45.6%
Under 7.5: 54.4%
BOS +1.5: 70.0%
SEA -1.5: 30.0%
Pitcher Adj: BOS 0.877 / SEA 1.133
Bullpen Adj: BOS 0.998 / SEA 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.3 - SEA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.3 - SEA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 56.7% - SEA 43.3% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -131 / SEA +131
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +105 -107 +3.0%
SEA ML -126 +107 -7.5%
BOS +1.5 -206 -233 +2.6%
SEA -1.5 +168 +233 -7.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +2.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Taj Bradley Home: Zac Gallen
ERA: 4.71 ERA: 5.05
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 8.77 K/9: 7.24
BB/9: 3.62 BB/9: 2.94
FIP: 4.19 FIP: 4.63
IP: 71.7 IP: 75.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN ARI Lg Avg
Record 36-41 39-36
R/Game 4.78 4.28 4.49
RA/Game 5.14 4.48 4.49
OPS 0.728 0.694 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.78 4.16 4.19
FIP 4.15 4.32 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.30 7.18 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0329 (Temp: 1.0347 | Wind: 0.9983)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.2 - ARI 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.2 - ARI 4.6
Win Probability: MIN 55.2% - ARI 44.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -123 / ARI +123
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 48.5%
Under 9.0: 41.9%
MIN +1.5: 70.0%
ARI -1.5: 30.0%
Pitcher Adj: MIN 1.024 / ARI 1.100
Bullpen Adj: MIN 0.998 / ARI 0.998
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.0 - ARI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.0 - ARI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIN 56.7% - ARI 43.3% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -131 / ARI +131
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +109 -123 +7.4%
ARI ML -131 +123 -11.9%
MIN +1.5 -186 -233 +4.9%
ARI -1.5 +153 +233 -9.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================