2026-06-21
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-21
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chase Burns Home: Elmer Rodríguez
ERA: 3.55 ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.85
K/9: 12.59 K/9: 4.15
BB/9: 3.15 BB/9: 6.23
FIP: 2.84 FIP: 4.25
IP: 80.7 IP: 13.0
xERA: 3.48 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN NYY Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.28 5.17 4.50
RA/Game 4.93 3.64 4.49
OPS 0.707 0.772 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.330 0.310
ERA 4.63 3.34 4.19
FIP 4.86 3.48 4.05
WHIP 1.47 1.18 1.31
K/9 7.90 8.89 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.656 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.96 3.50 4.25
BP FIP 5.08 3.58 4.07
BP WHIP 1.53 1.27
BP K/9 8.34 8.71
BP Quality* 55.1 40.9 46.3
BP IP 292.3 254.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0040 (Temp: 1.0170 | Wind: 0.9872)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.7 - NYY 5.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.7 - NYY 5.0
Win Probability: CIN 36.9% - NYY 63.1%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +171 / NYY -171
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 49.0%
Under 8.5: 51.0%
CIN -1.5: 22.5%
NYY +1.5: 77.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - NYY 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - NYY 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CIN 46.7% - NYY 53.3% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +114 / NYY -114
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML -102 +171 -13.6%
NYY ML -119 -171 +8.7%
CIN -1.5 +162 +345 -15.7%
NYY +1.5 -197 -345 +11.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -197 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00825
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robert Gasser Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 4.88 ERA: 4.38
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 7.48
BB/9: 4.13 BB/9: 2.85
FIP: 5.72 FIP: 4.1
IP: 24.0 IP: 88.7
xERA: 4.96 xERA: 4.73
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Bryce Elder)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL ATL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.24 4.97 4.50
RA/Game 3.70 3.61 4.49
OPS 0.732 0.740 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.318 0.310
ERA 3.44 3.34 4.19
FIP 3.42 3.82 4.05
WHIP 1.20 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.89 8.72 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.654 0.642 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 2.74 4.25
BP FIP 3.61 3.33 4.07
BP WHIP 1.33 1.08
BP K/9 9.34 9.10
BP Quality* 42.2 35.4 46.3
BP IP 258.3 216.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0026 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.9 - ATL 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.9 - ATL 4.9
Win Probability: MIL 50.0% - ATL 50.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -100 / ATL +100
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.7%
Under 9.0: 41.7%
MIL -1.5: 35.3%
ATL +1.5: 64.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 3.1 - ATL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.1 - ATL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIL 55.2% - ATL 44.8% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -123 / ATL +123
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -102 -100 -0.4%
ATL ML -119 +100 -4.4%
MIL -1.5 +158 +183 -3.4%
ATL +1.5 -193 -183 -1.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Alvarez Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 9.85 K/9: 5.95
BB/9: 3.81 BB/9: 1.98
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 3.91
IP: 28.3 IP: 83.0
xERA: 2.87 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.265 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH TB Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.36 4.42 4.50
RA/Game 5.19 4.33 4.49
OPS 0.743 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.64 3.92 4.19
FIP 4.65 4.08 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.23 1.31
K/9 7.64 7.98 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.510 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.10 4.37 4.25
BP FIP 4.74 4.29 4.07
BP WHIP 1.45 1.33
BP K/9 7.73 7.95
BP Quality* 53.2 47.6 46.3
BP IP 243.3 271.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.9 - TB 4.6
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.9 - TB 4.6
Win Probability: WSH 52.7% - TB 47.3%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -111 / TB +111
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.8%
Under 8.5: 44.2%
WSH +1.5: 68.0%
TB -1.5: 32.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.6 - TB 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.6 - TB 2.4
F5 Win Prob: WSH 54.2% - TB 45.8% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -119 / TB +119
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +109 -111 +4.9%
TB ML -131 +111 -9.4%
WSH +1.5 -191 -213 +2.4%
TB -1.5 +157 +213 -6.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Davis Martin Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 7.6 K/9: 6.76
BB/9: 2.7 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 4.47
IP: 81.7 IP: 73.7
xERA: 5.13 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS DET Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.65 4.07 4.50
RA/Game 4.69 4.14 4.49
OPS 0.733 0.705 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.41 3.85 4.19
FIP 4.25 3.82 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.31 8.25 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.496 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.01 4.07 4.25
BP FIP 4.85 4.03 4.07
BP WHIP 1.38 1.38
BP K/9 7.94 8.49
BP Quality* 53.0 45.8 46.3
BP IP 237.0 287.3
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0102 (Temp: 1.0071 | Wind: 1.0031)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.7 - DET 4.4
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.7 - DET 4.4
Win Probability: CWS 52.3% - DET 47.7%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -109 / DET +109
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.8%
Under 8.5: 47.2%
CWS -1.5: 36.6%
DET +1.5: 63.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.7 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.7 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CWS 56.2% - DET 43.8% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -128 / DET +128
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +101 -109 +2.5%
DET ML -122 +109 -7.2%
CWS -1.5 +168 +173 -0.7%
DET +1.5 -206 -173 -4.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Webb Home: Ryan Gusto
ERA: 3.3 ERA: 5.8
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 9.06 K/9: 8.42
BB/9: 2.09 BB/9: 3.2
FIP: 2.6 FIP: 4.45
IP: 75.3 IP: 13.7
xERA: 3.58 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF MIA Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.16 4.34 4.50
RA/Game 4.86 4.35 4.49
OPS 0.731 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.49 4.11 4.19
FIP 4.15 3.75 4.05
WHIP 1.40 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.08 8.84 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.430 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 4.04 4.25
BP FIP 4.34 3.44 4.07
BP WHIP 1.46 1.24
BP K/9 7.66 9.78
BP Quality* 49.1 41.8 46.3
BP IP 268.0 222.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0072 (Temp: 1.0234 | Wind: 0.9842)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 4.0 - MIA 3.6
Simulated Avg: SF 4.0 - MIA 3.6
Win Probability: SF 53.6% - MIA 46.4%
Fair Moneyline: SF -116 / MIA +116
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 38.3%
Under 8.5: 61.7%
SF -1.5: 35.7%
MIA +1.5: 64.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.5 - MIA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.4 - MIA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: SF 63.7% - MIA 36.3% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -175 / MIA +175
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML -144 -116 -5.4%
MIA ML +119 +116 +0.7%
SF -1.5 +119 +180 -10.0%
MIA +1.5 -143 -180 +5.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -14.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.3%
Fair ML: -161 | Kelly: 4.90%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00826
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Slade Cecconi Home: Kai-Wei Teng
ERA: 4.43 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.45 K/9: 9.61
BB/9: 2.48 BB/9: 4.31
FIP: 4.4 FIP: 4.55
IP: 78.3 IP: 54.3
xERA: 4.99 xERA: 4.02
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE HOU Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.01 4.54 4.50
RA/Game 4.09 5.08 4.49
OPS 0.686 0.731 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.81 4.89 4.19
FIP 3.87 4.56 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.41 1.31
K/9 9.35 8.77 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.491 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.79 5.02 4.25
BP FIP 3.53 4.69 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.44
BP K/9 10.40 8.52
BP Quality* 41.6 52.6 46.3
BP IP 254.3 295.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9889 (Temp: 1.0164 | Wind: 0.9730)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.2 - HOU 4.7
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.2 - HOU 4.7
Win Probability: CLE 44.9% - HOU 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +123 / HOU -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.9%
Under 8.5: 50.1%
CLE +1.5: 61.4%
HOU -1.5: 38.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.2 - HOU 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.2 - HOU 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CLE 41.1% - HOU 58.9% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +143 / HOU -143
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +118 +123 -1.0%
HOU ML -142 -123 -3.6%
CLE +1.5 -181 -159 -3.0%
HOU -1.5 +149 +159 -1.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dustin May Home: Stephen Kolek
ERA: 4.48 ERA: 3.32
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 8.33 K/9: 6.13
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 2.32
FIP: 3.87 FIP: 3.61
IP: 81.7 IP: 50.3
xERA: 5.2 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL KC Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.55 4.17 4.50
RA/Game 4.53 4.71 4.49
OPS 0.721 0.712 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.22 4.48 4.19
FIP 4.11 4.40 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.70 7.90 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 5.29 4.25
BP FIP 4.15 5.13 4.07
BP WHIP 1.38 1.57
BP K/9 8.10 8.00
BP Quality* 47.5 56.6 46.3
BP IP 277.7 272.3
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 35%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0175 (Temp: 1.0071 | Wind: 1.0104)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.7 - KC 4.5
Simulated Avg: STL 4.6 - KC 4.5
Win Probability: STL 51.0% - KC 49.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL -104 / KC +104
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.7%
Under 8.5: 47.3%
STL -1.5: 35.5%
KC +1.5: 64.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.3 - KC 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.3 - KC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: STL 46.0% - KC 54.0% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +118 / KC -118
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -126 -104 -4.7%
KC ML +105 +104 +0.2%
STL -1.5 +129 +182 -8.2%
KC +1.5 -156 -182 +3.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dylan Cease Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 12.28 K/9: 7.9
BB/9: 3.81 BB/9: 1.9
FIP: 2.99 FIP: 4.66
IP: 73.0 IP: 86.7
xERA: 3.46 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR CHC Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.10 4.75 4.50
RA/Game 4.43 4.48 4.49
OPS 0.702 0.738 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.13 4.28 4.19
FIP 3.87 4.50 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.24 1.31
K/9 8.94 7.93 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.85 4.19 4.25
BP FIP 3.67 4.73 4.07
BP WHIP 1.30 1.30
BP K/9 8.76 8.02
BP Quality* 42.7 48.7 46.3
BP IP 262.0 244.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 56%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9852 (Temp: 0.9984 | Wind: 0.9868)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.3 - CHC 4.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.3 - CHC 4.2
Win Probability: TOR 50.0% - CHC 50.0%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +100 / CHC -100
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.0: 56.8%
Under 7.0: 33.8%
TOR -1.5: 33.6%
CHC +1.5: 66.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.4 - CHC 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.4 - CHC 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TOR 52.8% - CHC 47.2% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -112 / CHC +112
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -112 +100 -2.9%
CHC ML -108 -100 -1.9%
TOR -1.5 +153 +198 -6.0%
CHC +1.5 -186 -198 +1.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +4.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -18.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Wandy Peralta Home: Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 3.11 ERA: 2.73
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 7.85 K/9: 8.78
BB/9: 3.79 BB/9: 1.73
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 3.34
IP: 36.7 IP: 87.3
xERA: 4.02 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD TEX Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 3.91 4.01 4.50
RA/Game 4.03 4.17 4.49
OPS 0.656 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.284 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.90 3.96 4.19
FIP 3.84 4.03 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.43 8.48 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.482 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.96 3.78 4.25
BP FIP 3.23 3.98 4.07
BP WHIP 1.17 1.25
BP K/9 9.46 7.35
BP Quality* 36.5 43.7 46.3
BP IP 258.7 267.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9854 (Temp: 1.0256 | Wind: 0.9608)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.3 - TEX 3.5
Simulated Avg: SD 3.3 - TEX 3.5
Win Probability: SD 46.7% - TEX 53.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD +114 / TEX -114
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 8.0: 30.1%
Under 8.0: 60.2%
SD +1.5: 66.0%
TEX -1.5: 34.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.6 - TEX 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.6 - TEX 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SD 42.0% - TEX 58.0% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +138 / TEX -138
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +130 +114 +3.3%
TEX ML -157 -114 -7.8%
SD +1.5 -167 -194 +3.4%
TEX -1.5 +138 +194 -8.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -22.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +7.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.13%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00827
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jared Jones Home: Michael Lorenzen
ERA: 6.23 ERA: 5.71
WHIP: 1.62 WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 9.35 K/9: 7.89
BB/9: 3.12 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 5.07 FIP: 4.53
IP: 17.3 IP: 70.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: COL (Michael Lorenzen)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT COL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.97 4.55 4.50
RA/Game 4.82 5.69 4.49
OPS 0.741 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.322 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.16 5.49 4.19
FIP 3.69 4.60 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.52 1.31
K/9 9.15 7.45 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.399 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 5.41 4.25
BP FIP 3.97 4.46 4.07
BP WHIP 1.40 1.55
BP K/9 9.33 7.87
BP Quality* 46.9 53.7 46.3
BP IP 219.0 314.7
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), strong wind out (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0829 (Temp: 1.0276 | Wind: 1.0538)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 7.0 - COL 6.5
Simulated Avg: PIT 7.0 - COL 6.5
Win Probability: PIT 54.0% - COL 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -118 / COL +118
Avg Total Runs: 13.5
Over 11.5: 61.1%
Under 11.5: 38.9%
PIT -1.5: 42.1%
COL +1.5: 57.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 4.0 - COL 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 4.0 - COL 3.8
F5 Win Prob: PIT 51.7% - COL 48.3% (Tie: 11.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -107 / COL +107
F5 Avg Total: 7.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -149 -118 -5.8%
COL ML +123 +118 +1.1%
PIT -1.5 +102 +138 -7.4%
COL +1.5 -123 -138 +2.8%
O 11.5 -110 N/A +8.7%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -13.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 11.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.56%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00828
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mike Paredes Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN ARI Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.92 4.33 4.50
RA/Game 5.18 4.63 4.49
OPS 0.735 0.695 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.83 4.32 4.19
FIP 4.16 4.34 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.30 7.13 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.25 3.78 4.25
BP FIP 4.35 3.80 4.07
BP WHIP 1.52 1.18
BP K/9 8.33 7.88
BP Quality* 52.5 42.3 46.3
BP IP 330.7 226.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.7 - ARI 5.0
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.7 - ARI 5.0
Win Probability: MIN 47.6% - ARI 52.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +110 / ARI -110
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.5: 48.1%
Under 9.5: 51.9%
MIN +1.5: 62.9%
ARI -1.5: 37.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.7 - ARI 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.8 - ARI 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIN 51.2% - ARI 48.8% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -105 / ARI +105
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +113 +110 +0.7%
ARI ML -136 -110 -5.2%
MIN +1.5 -180 -169 -1.4%
ARI -1.5 +148 +169 -3.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Reid Detmers Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 3.84 ERA: 4.36
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 10.85 K/9: 8.79
BB/9: 3.07 BB/9: 4.09
FIP: 2.86 FIP: 3.88
IP: 88.0 IP: 41.0
xERA: 3.61 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ATH Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.51 4.64 4.50
RA/Game 5.00 5.31 4.49
OPS 0.718 0.751 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.95 4.19
FIP 4.29 4.65 4.05
WHIP 1.43 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.81 8.32 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.453 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.23 5.42 4.25
BP FIP 4.90 4.52 4.07
BP WHIP 1.54 1.55
BP K/9 8.83 9.33
BP Quality* 55.1 53.7 46.3
BP IP 299.7 274.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9810 (Temp: 0.9990 | Wind: 0.9819)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.6 - ATH 4.6
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.6 - ATH 4.6
Win Probability: LAA 49.6% - ATH 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +102 / ATH -102
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.5: 44.3%
Under 9.5: 55.7%
LAA +1.5: 65.4%
ATH -1.5: 34.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.3 - ATH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.4 - ATH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: LAA 54.1% - ATH 45.9% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -118 / ATH +118
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +109 +102 +1.7%
ATH ML -131 -102 -6.3%
LAA +1.5 -187 -189 +0.2%
ATH -1.5 +153 +189 -4.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -8.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Young Home: Emmet Sheehan
ERA: 5.28 ERA: 3.54
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 7.03 K/9: 10.6
BB/9: 3.4 BB/9: 2.58
FIP: 4.92 FIP: 3.28
IP: 62.3 IP: 64.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Emmet Sheehan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL LAD Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.58 5.25 4.50
RA/Game 5.04 3.38 4.49
OPS 0.716 0.783 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.335 0.310
ERA 4.50 3.34 4.19
FIP 4.24 3.50 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.09 1.31
K/9 7.92 9.08 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.456 0.691 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 3.79 4.25
BP FIP 4.20 3.38 4.07
BP WHIP 1.34 1.23
BP K/9 8.88 9.88
BP Quality* 47.7 40.4 46.3
BP IP 282.7 242.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9962 (Temp: 1.0087 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 3.5 - LAD 5.7
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.5 - LAD 5.7
Win Probability: BAL 30.0% - LAD 70.0%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +233 / LAD -233
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.2%
Under 9.0: 47.0%
BAL +1.5: 45.4%
LAD -1.5: 54.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 1.9 - LAD 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.9 - LAD 3.3
F5 Win Prob: BAL 29.4% - LAD 70.6% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +241 / LAD -241
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +193 +233 -4.1%
LAD ML -238 -233 -0.4%
BAL +1.5 -107 +120 -6.3%
LAD -1.5 -112 -120 +1.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Payton Tolle Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 2.93 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 9.26 K/9: 10.89
BB/9: 2.47 BB/9: 2.11
FIP: 2.98 FIP: 3.35
IP: 58.3 IP: 86.7
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS SEA Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 3.96 4.14 4.50
RA/Game 4.03 3.95 4.49
OPS 0.694 0.701 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.86 3.66 4.19
FIP 3.83 3.43 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.57 8.81 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 3.29 4.25
BP FIP 3.87 3.48 4.07
BP WHIP 1.27 1.32
BP K/9 8.93 8.84
BP Quality* 42.9 40.1 46.3
BP IP 222.7 219.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0372 (Temp: 1.0008 | Wind: 1.0364)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.1 - SEA 3.6
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.1 - SEA 3.6
Win Probability: BOS 43.3% - SEA 56.7%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +131 / SEA -131
Avg Total Runs: 6.7
Over 6.5: 49.5%
Under 6.5: 50.5%
BOS +1.5: 63.2%
SEA -1.5: 36.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.7 - SEA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.7 - SEA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 44.1% - SEA 55.9% (Tie: 20.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +127 / SEA -127
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +113 +131 -3.7%
SEA ML -136 -131 -0.9%
BOS +1.5 -198 -171 -3.3%
SEA -1.5 +162 +171 -1.3%
O 6.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: David Peterson Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 4.56 ERA: 2.51
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 8.03 K/9: 10.92
BB/9: 3.56 BB/9: 2.03
FIP: 3.39 FIP: 2.95
IP: 64.0 IP: 62.7
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 2.49
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.247
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM PHI Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.07 4.25 4.50
RA/Game 4.42 4.36 4.49
OPS 0.671 0.694 0.719
wOBA 0.290 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.06 4.09 4.19
FIP 3.72 3.56 4.05
WHIP 1.28 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.12 9.46 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 3.84 4.25
BP FIP 3.52 3.17 4.07
BP WHIP 1.22 1.28
BP K/9 9.45 9.83
BP Quality* 39.9 39.8 46.3
BP IP 241.0 255.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0064 (Temp: 1.0146 | Wind: 0.9920)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.0 - PHI 4.2
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.0 - PHI 4.2
Win Probability: NYM 37.1% - PHI 62.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +169 / PHI -169
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 8.0: 34.2%
Under 8.0: 55.9%
NYM +1.5: 55.9%
PHI -1.5: 44.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.5 - PHI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.5 - PHI 2.4
F5 Win Prob: NYM 32.1% - PHI 67.9% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +212 / PHI -212
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +158 +169 -1.6%
PHI ML -193 -169 -3.0%
NYM +1.5 -136 -127 -1.7%
PHI -1.5 +113 +127 -2.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -18.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +3.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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