2026-06-22
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-22
Games: 13 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 2.57 ERA: 3.84
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 8.1
BB/9: 2.57 BB/9: 3.3
FIP: 4.1 FIP: 3.58
IP: 28.0 IP: 83.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.79
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY DET Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.12 4.08 4.50
RA/Game 3.64 4.14 4.49
OPS 0.771 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.330 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.35 3.83 4.19
FIP 3.49 3.81 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.85 8.22 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.651 0.493 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 4.03 4.23
BP FIP 3.56 4.00 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.36
BP K/9 8.61 8.52
BP Quality* 45.1 48.4 46.2
BP IP 259.3 290.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Will Vest (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0398 (Temp: 0.9965 | Wind: 1.0435)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.9 - DET 3.5
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.9 - DET 3.5
Win Probability: NYY 63.6% - DET 36.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -175 / DET +175
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 46.4%
Under 8.5: 53.6%
NYY -1.5: 47.3%
DET +1.5: 52.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.6 - DET 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.6 - DET 1.7
F5 Win Prob: NYY 65.4% - DET 34.6% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -189 / DET +189
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -131 -175 +6.9%
DET ML +108 +175 -11.7%
NYY -1.5 +128 +111 +3.5%
DET +1.5 -155 -111 -8.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Wacha Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 3.77 ERA: 2.69
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 6.71 K/9: 8.35
BB/9: 2.49 BB/9: 1.92
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 3.41
IP: 94.0 IP: 80.0
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC TB Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.24 4.42 4.50
RA/Game 4.81 4.31 4.49
OPS 0.716 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.58 3.91 4.19
FIP 4.46 4.07 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.23 1.31
K/9 7.89 7.99 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.25 4.33 4.23
BP FIP 5.10 4.25 4.06
BP WHIP 1.56 1.33
BP K/9 8.01 8.00
BP Quality* 59.2 51.7 46.2
BP IP 279.7 274.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.7 - TB 4.6
Simulated Avg: KC 3.7 - TB 4.6
Win Probability: KC 39.8% - TB 60.2%
Fair Moneyline: KC +151 / TB -151
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.5%
Under 7.5: 45.5%
KC +1.5: 57.1%
TB -1.5: 42.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 1.7 - TB 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.8 - TB 2.2
F5 Win Prob: KC 41.0% - TB 59.0% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +144 / TB -144
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +159 +151 +1.2%
TB ML -194 -151 -5.8%
KC +1.5 -142 -133 -1.5%
TB -1.5 +118 +133 -3.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Alexander Home: Tyler Phillips
ERA: 4.92 ERA: 2.82
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 7.54 K/9: 6.23
BB/9: 2.77 BB/9: 2.99
FIP: 3.54 FIP: 4.05
IP: 30.3 IP: 52.3
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Tyler Alexander)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX MIA Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.01 4.31 4.50
RA/Game 4.16 4.31 4.49
OPS 0.705 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.94 4.07 4.19
FIP 3.99 3.74 4.05
WHIP 1.25 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.53 8.80 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 3.98 4.23
BP FIP 3.96 3.44 4.06
BP WHIP 1.25 1.22
BP K/9 7.37 9.62
BP Quality* 48.0 52.0 46.2
BP IP 270.0 226.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9995 (Temp: 1.0213 | Wind: 0.9787)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.5 - MIA 4.2
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.5 - MIA 4.2
Win Probability: TEX 42.7% - MIA 57.3%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +134 / MIA -134
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.5: 39.6%
Under 8.5: 60.4%
TEX +1.5: 60.7%
MIA -1.5: 39.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 1.8 - MIA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.8 - MIA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TEX 40.0% - MIA 60.0% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +150 / MIA -150
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +109 +134 -5.2%
MIA ML -131 -134 +0.6%
TEX +1.5 -193 -154 -5.2%
MIA -1.5 +158 +154 +0.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.20%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00829
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Foster Griffin
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.27 5.33 4.50
RA/Game 4.32 5.18 4.49
OPS 0.696 0.741 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.06 4.64 4.19
FIP 3.54 4.65 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.39 1.31
K/9 9.52 7.68 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.79 5.13 4.23
BP FIP 3.12 4.81 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.46
BP K/9 9.95 7.75
BP Quality* 40.9 55.2 46.2
BP IP 258.7 247.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gus Varland (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 52%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9847 (Temp: 1.0086 | Wind: 0.9763)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - WSH 5.0
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - WSH 5.0
Win Probability: PHI 42.2% - WSH 57.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +137 / WSH -137
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 10.0: 36.7%
Under 10.0: 55.1%
PHI -1.5: 27.5%
WSH +1.5: 72.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.1 - WSH 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.1 - WSH 2.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 37.7% - WSH 62.3% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +166 / WSH -166
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +102 +137 -7.3%
WSH ML -123 -137 +2.7%
PHI -1.5 +155 +263 -11.7%
WSH +1.5 -188 -263 +7.2%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -15.7%
U 10.0 -110 N/A +2.7%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-188]
Model: 72.5% | Market: 65.3% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -263 | Kelly: 5.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00830
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hunter Brown Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 2.32 ERA: 3.87
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 10.28 K/9: 12.28
BB/9: 2.96 BB/9: 3.81
FIP: 2.89 FIP: 2.99
IP: 16.3 IP: 73.0
xERA: 3.14 xERA: 3.46
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU TOR Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.51 4.10 4.50
RA/Game 5.03 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.730 0.702 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.84 4.13 4.19
FIP 4.52 3.87 4.05
WHIP 1.40 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.79 8.94 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.450 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.97 3.85 4.23
BP FIP 4.65 3.67 4.06
BP WHIP 1.43 1.30
BP K/9 8.62 8.76
BP Quality* 53.6 42.7 46.2
BP IP 298.7 262.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0060 (Temp: 0.9840 | Wind: 1.0223)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 3.8 - TOR 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 3.8 - TOR 4.2
Win Probability: HOU 44.8% - TOR 55.2%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +123 / TOR -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 52.2%
Under 7.5: 47.8%
HOU +1.5: 62.4%
TOR -1.5: 37.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.0 - TOR 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.0 - TOR 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 48.1% - TOR 51.9% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +108 / TOR -108
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +104 +123 -4.2%
TOR ML -126 -123 -0.5%
HOU +1.5 -206 -166 -4.9%
TOR -1.5 +168 +166 +0.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shota Imanaga Home: Kodai Senga
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 7.9 K/9: 8.98
BB/9: 1.9 BB/9: 4.71
FIP: 4.66 FIP: 4.47
IP: 86.7 IP: 24.0
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.75 4.04 4.50
RA/Game 4.48 4.44 4.49
OPS 0.738 0.669 0.719
wOBA 0.321 0.289 0.310
ERA 4.28 4.08 4.19
FIP 4.50 3.75 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.28 1.31
K/9 7.93 9.11 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.19 3.45 4.23
BP FIP 4.73 3.56 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.21
BP K/9 8.02 9.37
BP Quality* 50.2 41.5 46.2
BP IP 244.7 245.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Austin Warren (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 52%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0110 (Temp: 0.9982 | Wind: 1.0128)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.3 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.3 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: CHC 50.6% - NYM 49.4%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -102 / NYM +102
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 47.3%
Under 8.5: 52.7%
CHC -1.5: 34.3%
NYM +1.5: 65.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.5 - NYM 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.5 - NYM 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CHC 53.7% - NYM 46.3% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -116 / NYM +116
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -125 -102 -5.0%
NYM ML +104 +102 +0.4%
CHC -1.5 +131 +192 -9.0%
NYM +1.5 -159 -192 +4.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Brady Singer
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.29 4.28 4.50
RA/Game 3.71 4.88 4.49
OPS 0.734 0.706 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.45 4.58 4.19
FIP 3.41 4.84 4.05
WHIP 1.19 1.46 1.31
K/9 9.88 7.92 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.657 0.440 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 4.89 4.23
BP FIP 3.61 5.05 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.52
BP K/9 9.34 8.32
BP Quality* 45.2 56.1 46.2
BP IP 258.3 296.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9812 (Temp: 0.9938 | Wind: 0.9873)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 6.1 - CIN 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIL 6.1 - CIN 4.5
Win Probability: MIL 63.2% - CIN 36.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -172 / CIN +172
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.5: 56.5%
Under 9.5: 43.5%
MIL -1.5: 49.2%
CIN +1.5: 50.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.3 - CIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.3 - CIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 60.4% - CIN 39.6% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -152 / CIN +152
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -157 -172 +2.2%
CIN ML +130 +172 -6.7%
MIL -1.5 +102 +103 -0.3%
CIN +1.5 -123 -103 -4.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eric Lauer Home: Zebby Matthews
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 8.02 K/9: 9.4
BB/9: 2.52 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 3.92
IP: 58.7 IP: 43.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Zebby Matthews)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIN Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.19 4.91 4.50
RA/Game 3.49 5.14 4.49
OPS 0.778 0.735 0.719
wOBA 0.333 0.318 0.310
ERA 3.46 4.79 4.19
FIP 3.57 4.16 4.05
WHIP 1.10 1.39 1.31
K/9 9.07 8.24 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.674 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.92 5.24 4.23
BP FIP 3.47 4.31 4.06
BP WHIP 1.24 1.53
BP K/9 9.83 8.42
BP Quality* 47.3 56.8 46.2
BP IP 248.0 319.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Jonathan Hernández (B2B, 37 pitches)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cody Laweryson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0295 (Temp: 1.0071 | Wind: 1.0223)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 6.1 - MIN 5.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.1 - MIN 5.2
Win Probability: LAD 56.9% - MIN 43.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -132 / MIN +132
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 9.5: 61.0%
Under 9.5: 39.0%
LAD -1.5: 43.6%
MIN +1.5: 56.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.2 - MIN 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.2 - MIN 2.8
F5 Win Prob: LAD 55.8% - MIN 44.2% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -126 / MIN +126
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -155 -132 -3.9%
MIN ML +128 +132 -0.8%
LAD -1.5 +104 +130 -5.5%
MIN +1.5 -126 -130 +0.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +8.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -13.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.53%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00831
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gavin Williams Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 3.39 ERA: 4.61
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 9.64 K/9: 7.04
BB/9: 3.81 BB/9: 3.58
FIP: 4.15 FIP: 4.76
IP: 91.7 IP: 70.3
xERA: 4.3 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 3.97 4.64 4.50
RA/Game 4.06 4.70 4.49
OPS 0.683 0.729 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.79 4.41 4.19
FIP 3.88 4.25 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.28 8.29 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 5.03 4.23
BP FIP 3.51 4.84 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.39
BP K/9 10.39 7.94
BP Quality* 42.8 56.1 46.2
BP IP 256.3 238.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0401 (Temp: 0.9881 | Wind: 1.0526)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.7 - CWS 4.7
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.7 - CWS 4.7
Win Probability: CLE 50.2% - CWS 49.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -101 / CWS +101
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 7.5: 63.8%
Under 7.5: 36.2%
CLE -1.5: 34.9%
CWS +1.5: 65.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.5 - CWS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.5 - CWS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CLE 49.2% - CWS 50.8% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +103 / CWS -103
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -112 -101 -2.6%
CWS ML -108 +101 -2.1%
CLE -1.5 +148 +187 -5.5%
CWS +1.5 -180 -187 +0.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +11.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -16.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00832
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 4.31 ERA: 4.69
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.23 K/9: 6.6
BB/9: 2.79 BB/9: 3.23
FIP: 4.45 FIP: 4.33
IP: 69.7 IP: 76.7
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.30 4.65 4.50
RA/Game 4.62 4.60 4.49
OPS 0.693 0.730 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.30 4.29 4.19
FIP 4.32 4.16 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.35 1.31
K/9 7.10 7.72 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 4.39 4.23
BP FIP 3.75 4.20 4.06
BP WHIP 1.18 1.38
BP K/9 7.77 8.13
BP Quality* 46.5 50.8 46.2
BP IP 235.0 284.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0288 (Temp: 0.9959 | Wind: 1.0330)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.6 - STL 4.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.6 - STL 4.9
Win Probability: ARI 46.9% - STL 53.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +113 / STL -113
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.3%
Under 8.5: 43.7%
ARI +1.5: 62.5%
STL -1.5: 37.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.5 - STL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.5 - STL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ARI 47.1% - STL 52.9% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +112 / STL -112
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +119 +113 +1.2%
STL ML -144 -113 -5.9%
ARI +1.5 -174 -167 -1.0%
STL -1.5 +143 +167 -3.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Bennett Home: Ryan Feltner
ERA: 4.79 ERA: 4.83
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 5.66 K/9: 7.37
BB/9: 2.18 BB/9: 3.55
FIP: 3.2 FIP: 4.49
IP: 20.7 IP: 41.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS COL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 3.92 4.56 4.50
RA/Game 4.01 5.72 4.49
OPS 0.692 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.85 5.53 4.19
FIP 3.84 4.60 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.52 1.31
K/9 8.52 7.43 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.398 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 5.46 4.23
BP FIP 3.86 4.48 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.55
BP K/9 8.93 7.80
BP Quality* 44.2 57.0 46.2
BP IP 224.7 318.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Danny Coulombe (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0028 (Temp: 1.0219 | Wind: 0.9813)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.8 - COL 5.3
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.8 - COL 5.3
Win Probability: BOS 45.8% - COL 54.2%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +119 / COL -119
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 11.5: 36.1%
Under 11.5: 63.9%
BOS -1.5: 31.8%
COL +1.5: 68.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.5 - COL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.5 - COL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: BOS 42.2% - COL 57.8% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +137 / COL -137
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -131 +119 -11.0%
COL ML +108 -119 +6.2%
BOS -1.5 +113 +215 -15.2%
COL +1.5 -136 -215 +10.6%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -16.3%
U 11.5 -110 N/A +11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 11.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00833
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -136 | Edge: 10.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00834
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Sam Aldegheri
ERA: 3.16 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 11.6 K/9: 5.85
BB/9: 3.56 BB/9: 4.95
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 4.75
IP: 81.0 IP: 20.0
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 7.3
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.402
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Kyle Bradish)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL LAA Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.67 4.57 4.50
RA/Game 4.99 5.03 4.49
OPS 0.724 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.45 4.65 4.19
FIP 4.22 4.30 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.43 1.31
K/9 7.89 8.77 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 5.20 4.23
BP FIP 4.19 4.92 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.53
BP K/9 8.79 8.80
BP Quality* 53.4 61.0 46.2
BP IP 286.7 302.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Keegan Akin (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9762 (Temp: 0.9966 | Wind: 0.9795)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 5.4 - LAA 4.2
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.4 - LAA 4.2
Win Probability: BAL 60.4% - LAA 39.6%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -153 / LAA +153
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 47.4%
Under 9.0: 43.6%
BAL -1.5: 45.3%
LAA +1.5: 54.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.8 - LAA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.8 - LAA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BAL 64.7% - LAA 35.3% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -183 / LAA +183
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML -163 -153 -1.5%
LAA ML +135 +153 -3.0%
BAL -1.5 +101 +121 -4.5%
LAA +1.5 -122 -121 -0.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Grant Holmes Home: Michael King
ERA: 4.13 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.98 K/9: 8.64
BB/9: 4.21 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 4.58 FIP: 4.19
IP: 68.7 IP: 85.0
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: SD (Michael King)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SD Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.96 3.89 4.50
RA/Game 3.68 4.03 4.49
OPS 0.738 0.657 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.284 0.310
ERA 3.40 3.90 4.19
FIP 3.81 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.20 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.73 8.40 8.46
Pythag Win% 0.633 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.74 2.91 4.23
BP FIP 3.33 3.23 4.06
BP WHIP 1.08 1.17
BP K/9 9.10 9.42
BP Quality* 38.4 42.4 46.2
BP IP 216.7 262.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Reynaldo López (58 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Lucas Giolito (66 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9938 (Temp: 0.9920 | Wind: 1.0019)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.4 - SD 3.7
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.4 - SD 3.7
Win Probability: ATL 57.5% - SD 42.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -136 / SD +136
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.4%
Under 7.5: 47.6%
ATL -1.5: 40.4%
SD +1.5: 59.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.5 - SD 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.5 - SD 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATL 54.7% - SD 45.3% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -121 / SD +121
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -109 -136 +5.4%
SD ML -110 +136 -9.9%
ATL -1.5 +158 +148 +1.6%
SD +1.5 -193 -148 -6.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================