2026-06-23
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-23
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Peter Lambert Home: Shane Bieber
ERA: 3.23 ERA: 3.57
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 8.16 K/9: 8.26
BB/9: 3.52 BB/9: 1.56
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 4.37
IP: 64.0 IP: 40.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.48
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU TOR Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.47 4.10 4.48
RA/Game 5.01 4.40 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.706 0.718
wOBA 0.311 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.84 4.10 4.18
FIP 4.52 3.86 4.04
WHIP 1.41 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.79 8.94 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.98 3.82 4.22
BP FIP 4.62 3.68 4.06
BP WHIP 1.44 1.31
BP K/9 8.59 8.73
BP Quality* 55.1 44.2 46.2
BP IP 303.7 264.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0522 (Temp: 1.0063 | Wind: 1.0457)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.5 - TOR 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.5 - TOR 4.3
Win Probability: HOU 52.2% - TOR 47.8%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -109 / TOR +109
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 50.3%
Under 8.5: 49.7%
HOU +1.5: 67.9%
TOR -1.5: 32.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.6 - TOR 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.6 - TOR 2.0
F5 Win Prob: HOU 60.0% - TOR 40.0% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -150 / TOR +150
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +109 -109 +4.4%
TOR ML -131 +109 -8.9%
HOU +1.5 -185 -211 +3.0%
TOR -1.5 +152 +211 -7.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: George Kirby Home: Mitch Keller
ERA: 4.16 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.98 K/9: 7.42
BB/9: 2.08 BB/9: 2.94
FIP: 3.24 FIP: 3.79
IP: 90.0 IP: 82.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA PIT Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.13 5.01 4.48
RA/Game 3.91 4.83 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.744 0.718
wOBA 0.304 0.322 0.310
ERA 3.62 4.17 4.18
FIP 3.42 3.69 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.86 9.16 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.524 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.25 4.48 4.22
BP FIP 3.43 3.97 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.40
BP K/9 8.93 9.36
BP Quality* 39.7 47.0 46.2
BP IP 221.7 225.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0039 (Temp: 0.9998 | Wind: 1.0042)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.0 - PIT 4.4
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.0 - PIT 4.4
Win Probability: SEA 45.9% - PIT 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +118 / PIT -118
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 46.2%
Under 8.5: 53.8%
SEA -1.5: 29.8%
PIT +1.5: 70.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.2 - PIT 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.2 - PIT 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SEA 46.0% - PIT 54.0% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +117 / PIT -117
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -126 +118 -9.9%
PIT ML +105 -118 +5.4%
SEA -1.5 +134 +236 -12.9%
PIT +1.5 -162 -236 +8.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -6.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.4%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line) [-162]
Model: 70.2% | Market: 61.8% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -236 | Kelly: 5.48%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00835
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luinder Avila Home: Shane McClanahan
ERA: 5.5 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.65 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 7.88 K/9: 9.18
BB/9: 5.5 BB/9: 3.59
FIP: 4.56 FIP: 2.83
IP: 37.7 IP: 67.7
xERA: 2.09 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.226 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC TB Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.22 4.37 4.48
RA/Game 4.76 4.28 4.48
OPS 0.713 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.53 3.88 4.18
FIP 4.42 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.22 1.31
K/9 7.89 7.98 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.510 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.21 4.28 4.22
BP FIP 5.07 4.22 4.06
BP WHIP 1.55 1.31
BP K/9 8.05 7.97
BP Quality* 55.9 51.3 46.2
BP IP 281.7 277.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.5 - TB 4.5
Simulated Avg: KC 3.5 - TB 4.5
Win Probability: KC 39.5% - TB 60.6%
Fair Moneyline: KC +153 / TB -153
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 42.3%
Under 8.0: 47.8%
KC +1.5: 57.2%
TB -1.5: 42.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 1.6 - TB 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.6 - TB 2.2
F5 Win Prob: KC 37.9% - TB 62.2% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +164 / TB -164
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +159 +153 +0.8%
TB ML -194 -153 -5.4%
KC +1.5 -136 -134 -0.4%
TB -1.5 +113 +134 -4.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cal Quantrill Home: Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 6.04 ERA: 4.82
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 6.5 K/9: 7.04
BB/9: 2.68 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 4.98 FIP: 3.97
IP: 29.3 IP: 103.3
xERA: 5.81 xERA: 4.64
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Sandy Alcantara)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX MIA Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.01 4.29 4.48
RA/Game 4.14 4.30 4.48
OPS 0.705 0.708 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.93 4.07 4.18
FIP 3.95 3.75 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.59 8.78 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 4.00 4.22
BP FIP 3.94 3.43 4.06
BP WHIP 1.25 1.23
BP K/9 7.39 9.61
BP Quality* 50.8 46.1 46.2
BP IP 274.0 229.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kumar Rocker (76 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Bender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0047 (Temp: 1.0175 | Wind: 0.9874)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.8 - MIA 4.6
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.8 - MIA 4.6
Win Probability: TEX 41.5% - MIA 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +141 / MIA -141
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 45.9%
Under 8.5: 54.1%
TEX +1.5: 58.5%
MIA -1.5: 41.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.2 - MIA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.2 - MIA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TEX 43.5% - MIA 56.5% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +130 / MIA -130
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +135 +141 -1.0%
MIA ML -163 -141 -3.5%
TEX +1.5 -162 -141 -3.3%
MIA -1.5 +134 +141 -1.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -6.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Carlos Rodón Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 3.17 ERA: 3.5
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 9.53 K/9: 8.55
BB/9: 3.69 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 3.45
IP: 36.0 IP: 52.3
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY DET Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.09 4.09 4.48
RA/Game 3.66 4.13 4.48
OPS 0.768 0.710 0.718
wOBA 0.329 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.37 3.82 4.18
FIP 3.50 3.80 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.84 8.27 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.646 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 4.05 4.22
BP FIP 3.56 4.00 4.06
BP WHIP 1.25 1.36
BP K/9 8.56 8.56
BP Quality* 44.9 48.4 46.2
BP IP 263.0 293.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Yarbrough (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Will Vest (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0464 (Temp: 1.0018 | Wind: 1.0446)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.8 - DET 3.8
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.8 - DET 3.8
Win Probability: NYY 60.0% - DET 40.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -150 / DET +150
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.4%
Under 7.5: 42.6%
NYY -1.5: 43.6%
DET +1.5: 56.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.5 - DET 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - DET 1.9
F5 Win Prob: NYY 59.7% - DET 40.3% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -148 / DET +148
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -112 -150 +7.2%
DET ML -107 +150 -11.7%
NYY -1.5 +152 +130 +3.9%
DET +1.5 -185 -130 -8.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Zack Littell
ERA: 4.04 ERA: 4.33
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 10.41 K/9: 5.93
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 1.97
FIP: 2.96 FIP: 5.31
IP: 85.7 IP: 71.0
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.23 5.32 4.48
RA/Game 4.32 5.13 4.48
OPS 0.693 0.744 0.718
wOBA 0.299 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.06 4.59 4.18
FIP 3.56 4.61 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.38 1.31
K/9 9.51 7.74 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.81 5.11 4.22
BP FIP 3.17 4.80 4.06
BP WHIP 1.29 1.46
BP K/9 9.92 7.76
BP Quality* 42.8 55.1 46.2
BP IP 266.7 248.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alan Rangel (72 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0226 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 1.0180)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.8 - WSH 4.6
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.8 - WSH 4.7
Win Probability: PHI 51.3% - WSH 48.7%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -105 / WSH +105
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.9%
Under 8.5: 44.1%
PHI -1.5: 36.3%
WSH +1.5: 63.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.6 - WSH 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.6 - WSH 2.4
F5 Win Prob: PHI 53.9% - WSH 46.1% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -117 / WSH +117
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -173 -105 -12.1%
WSH ML +143 +105 +7.6%
PHI -1.5 -104 +176 -14.7%
WSH +1.5 -115 -176 +10.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -115 | Edge: 10.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00836
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Edward Cabrera Home: Kodai Senga
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 9.19 K/9: 8.98
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 4.71
FIP: 4.14 FIP: 4.47
IP: 67.3 IP: 24.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Edward Cabrera)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.75 4.04 4.48
RA/Game 4.48 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.738 0.669 0.718
wOBA 0.321 0.289 0.310
ERA 4.28 4.08 4.18
FIP 4.50 3.75 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.28 1.31
K/9 7.93 9.11 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.19 3.45 4.22
BP FIP 4.73 3.56 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.21
BP K/9 8.02 9.37
BP Quality* 48.7 40.0 46.2
BP IP 244.7 245.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9917 (Temp: 0.9971 | Wind: 0.9946)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.2 - NYM 4.0
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.2 - NYM 4.0
Win Probability: CHC 51.4% - NYM 48.6%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -106 / NYM +106
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 44.1%
Under 8.5: 55.9%
CHC -1.5: 34.6%
NYM +1.5: 65.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.5 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.5 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CHC 55.4% - NYM 44.6% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -124 / NYM +124
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -102 -106 +0.9%
NYM ML -119 +106 -5.7%
CHC -1.5 +162 +189 -3.5%
NYM +1.5 -197 -189 -0.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 5.94 ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.91 K/9: 8.45
BB/9: 4.52 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 5.28 FIP: 3.92
IP: 63.7 IP: 42.7
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Nick Lodolo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.25 4.23 4.48
RA/Game 3.67 4.84 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.700 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.40 4.53 4.18
FIP 3.36 4.80 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.45 1.31
K/9 9.92 7.95 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.658 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.87 4.22
BP FIP 3.57 5.01 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.51
BP K/9 9.33 8.36
BP Quality* 46.2 60.3 46.2
BP IP 262.3 299.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0265 (Temp: 1.0034 | Wind: 1.0230)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 6.0 - CIN 5.3
Simulated Avg: MIL 6.0 - CIN 5.3
Win Probability: MIL 55.5% - CIN 44.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -124 / CIN +124
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 10.0: 53.2%
Under 10.0: 38.9%
MIL -1.5: 41.9%
CIN +1.5: 58.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.9 - CIN 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.9 - CIN 3.1
F5 Win Prob: MIL 45.9% - CIN 54.1% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +118 / CIN -118
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -112 -124 +2.6%
CIN ML -107 +124 -7.1%
MIL -1.5 +137 +138 -0.3%
CIN +1.5 -167 -138 -4.5%
O 10.0 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -13.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Justin Wrobleski Home: Kendry Rojas
ERA: 3.77 ERA: 1.26
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 8.69 K/9: 8.79
BB/9: 2.14 BB/9: 6.28
FIP: 2.99 FIP: 3.24
IP: 79.3 IP: 14.3
xERA: 3.43 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIN Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.15 4.86 4.48
RA/Game 3.46 5.10 4.48
OPS 0.779 0.731 0.718
wOBA 0.333 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.43 4.75 4.18
FIP 3.58 4.17 4.04
WHIP 1.10 1.39 1.31
K/9 9.02 8.24 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.675 0.478 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.91 5.19 4.22
BP FIP 3.51 4.29 4.06
BP WHIP 1.24 1.53
BP K/9 9.82 8.42
BP Quality* 46.0 58.1 46.2
BP IP 251.0 322.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Eric Lauer (84 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jonathan Hernández (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eric Orze (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 67%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (7 mph) | Rain likely (67%)
Weather Factor: 0.9829 (Temp: 0.9962 | Wind: 0.9867)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.0 - MIN 4.3
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.0 - MIN 4.3
Win Probability: LAD 55.7% - MIN 44.3%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -126 / MIN +126
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 45.2%
Under 9.0: 45.8%
LAD -1.5: 40.3%
MIN +1.5: 59.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.3 - MIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.3 - MIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: LAD 51.8% - MIN 48.2% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -108 / MIN +108
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -181 -126 -8.7%
MIN ML +149 +126 +4.1%
LAD -1.5 -105 +148 -10.9%
MIN +1.5 -115 -148 +6.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Parker Messick Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 2.71 ERA: 4.12
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 8.98 K/9: 8.94
BB/9: 2.02 BB/9: 3.91
FIP: 3.04 FIP: 4.45
IP: 86.7 IP: 81.0
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 3.99 4.66 4.48
RA/Game 4.09 4.70 4.48
OPS 0.682 0.729 0.718
wOBA 0.297 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.82 4.42 4.18
FIP 3.86 4.22 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.34 8.38 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 5.08 4.22
BP FIP 3.53 4.82 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.39
BP K/9 10.42 7.98
BP Quality* 41.6 62.2 46.2
BP IP 260.0 239.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: DEPLETED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Seranthony Domínguez (B2B, 27 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Grant Taylor (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0015 (Temp: 0.9910 | Wind: 1.0106)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.7 - CWS 3.8
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.7 - CWS 3.8
Win Probability: CLE 59.3% - CWS 40.7%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -145 / CWS +145
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.0: 56.1%
Under 7.0: 34.5%
CLE -1.5: 42.6%
CWS +1.5: 57.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.4 - CWS 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.4 - CWS 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CLE 59.7% - CWS 40.3% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -148 / CWS +148
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -114 -145 +6.0%
CWS ML -105 +145 -10.5%
CLE -1.5 +153 +135 +3.0%
CWS +1.5 -186 -135 -7.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +3.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -17.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 3.92 ERA: 3.69
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.6 K/9: 7.94
BB/9: 3.53 BB/9: 3.05
FIP: 4.36 FIP: 3.47
IP: 88.3 IP: 70.0
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.27 4.63 4.48
RA/Game 4.60 4.57 4.48
OPS 0.693 0.728 0.718
wOBA 0.299 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.29 4.26 4.18
FIP 4.31 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.34 1.31
K/9 7.07 7.64 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 4.38 4.22
BP FIP 3.74 4.23 4.06
BP WHIP 1.18 1.37
BP K/9 7.78 8.04
BP Quality* 41.8 53.8 46.2
BP IP 237.0 287.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0285 (Temp: 1.0111 | Wind: 1.0172)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.3 - STL 4.7
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.4 - STL 4.7
Win Probability: ARI 46.3% - STL 53.7%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +116 / STL -116
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 51.9%
Under 8.5: 48.1%
ARI -1.5: 31.3%
STL +1.5: 68.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.2 - STL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.2 - STL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: ARI 41.2% - STL 58.8% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +142 / STL -142
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -105 +116 -4.9%
STL ML -115 -116 +0.2%
ARI -1.5 +158 +220 -7.5%
STL +1.5 -192 -220 +3.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sonny Gray Home: Sean Sullivan
ERA: 3.85 ERA: 10.29
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.86
K/9: 8.94 K/9: 5.14
BB/9: 2.01 BB/9: 2.57
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 6.53
IP: 69.3 IP: 7.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS COL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 3.89 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 4.00 5.67 4.48
OPS 0.690 0.733 0.718
wOBA 0.300 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.85 5.48 4.18
FIP 3.80 4.60 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.51 1.31
K/9 8.54 7.36 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.400 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.81 5.41 4.22
BP FIP 3.85 4.49 4.06
BP WHIP 1.29 1.55
BP K/9 8.85 7.73
BP Quality* 47.7 56.9 46.2
BP IP 226.7 321.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Coulombe (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0382 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 1.0219)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 6.4 - COL 5.2
Simulated Avg: BOS 6.5 - COL 5.2
Win Probability: BOS 59.4% - COL 40.6%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -147 / COL +147
Avg Total Runs: 11.7
Over 10.5: 56.3%
Under 10.5: 43.7%
BOS -1.5: 46.5%
COL +1.5: 53.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 3.9 - COL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 3.9 - COL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: BOS 65.8% - COL 34.2% (Tie: 12.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -192 / COL +192
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -168 -147 -3.2%
COL ML +139 +147 -1.3%
BOS -1.5 -106 +115 -4.9%
COL +1.5 -114 -115 +0.2%
O 10.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Baz Home: Ryan Johnson
ERA: 4.51 ERA: 12.83
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 2.33
K/9: 8.74 K/9: 4.73
BB/9: 3.45 BB/9: 5.4
FIP: 3.97 FIP: 8.74
IP: 89.0 IP: 13.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 3.53
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL LAA Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.69 4.53 4.48
RA/Game 4.94 5.04 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.719 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.41 4.67 4.18
FIP 4.20 4.29 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.43 1.31
K/9 7.92 8.81 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 5.16 4.22
BP FIP 4.23 4.84 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.53
BP K/9 8.79 8.94
BP Quality* 50.6 59.0 46.2
BP IP 287.7 307.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Brent Suter (B2B, 35 pitches)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9794 (Temp: 0.9981 | Wind: 0.9813)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 6.7 - LAA 4.7
Simulated Avg: BAL 6.7 - LAA 4.7
Win Probability: BAL 65.7% - LAA 34.3%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -192 / LAA +192
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 9.0: 61.3%
Under 9.0: 31.0%
BAL -1.5: 52.6%
LAA +1.5: 47.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 4.1 - LAA 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 4.1 - LAA 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BAL 70.8% - LAA 29.2% (Tie: 12.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -242 / LAA +242
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML -144 -192 +6.7%
LAA ML +119 +192 -11.4%
BAL -1.5 +117 -111 +6.5%
LAA +1.5 -141 +111 -11.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +8.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -21.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.9%
Fair ML: -158 | Kelly: 4.67%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00837
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: JR Ritchie Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SD Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.90 3.86 4.48
RA/Game 3.65 3.97 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.656 0.718
wOBA 0.315 0.284 0.310
ERA 3.38 3.85 4.18
FIP 3.83 3.82 4.04
WHIP 1.20 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.74 8.41 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.631 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.70 2.89 4.22
BP FIP 3.31 3.21 4.06
BP WHIP 1.07 1.17
BP K/9 9.16 9.49
BP Quality* 39.6 40.7 46.2
BP IP 220.0 264.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: James Karinchak (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0032 (Temp: 0.9965 | Wind: 1.0067)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.4 - SD 4.1
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.4 - SD 4.2
Win Probability: ATL 52.2% - SD 47.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -109 / SD +109
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 47.7%
Under 8.5: 52.3%
ATL -1.5: 36.0%
SD +1.5: 64.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.6 - SD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.6 - SD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATL 50.2% - SD 49.8% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -101 / SD +101
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -114 -109 -1.1%
SD ML -105 +109 -3.4%
ATL -1.5 +152 +178 -3.7%
SD +1.5 -185 -178 -0.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Aaron Civale Home: Robbie Ray
ERA: 4.87 ERA: 3.82
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 7.26 K/9: 8.85
BB/9: 2.91 BB/9: 3.88
FIP: 4.71 FIP: 4.28
IP: 58.7 IP: 79.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: SF (Robbie Ray)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH SF Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.67 4.12 4.48
RA/Game 5.36 4.82 4.48
OPS 0.749 0.728 0.718
wOBA 0.321 0.309 0.310
ERA 5.00 4.46 4.18
FIP 4.66 4.14 4.04
WHIP 1.45 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.37 8.05 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.429 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.50 4.33 4.22
BP FIP 4.57 4.34 4.06
BP WHIP 1.55 1.46
BP K/9 9.32 7.66
BP Quality* 54.2 49.1 46.2
BP IP 278.0 268.0
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9609 (Temp: 0.9844 | Wind: 0.9761)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.2 - SF 4.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.1 - SF 4.3
Win Probability: ATH 47.9% - SF 52.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +109 / SF -109
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 9.0: 37.5%
Under 9.0: 53.6%
ATH +1.5: 64.7%
SF -1.5: 35.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.2 - SF 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.2 - SF 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 48.7% - SF 51.3% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +105 / SF -105
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +113 +109 +1.0%
SF ML -136 -109 -5.5%
ATH +1.5 -191 -183 -1.0%
SF -1.5 +157 +183 -3.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -14.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +1.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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