2026-06-24
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-24
Games: 16 | Plays: 5
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Eury Pérez
ERA: 3.24 ERA: 4.37
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 10.08 K/9: 10.06
BB/9: 1.94 BB/9: 3.36
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 3.84
IP: 82.7 IP: 62.7
xERA: 3.36 xERA: 3.23
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.281
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX MIA Lg Avg
Record 38-41 41-39
R/Game 4.01 4.31 4.49
RA/Game 4.16 4.30 4.48
OPS 0.708 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.96 4.07 4.18
FIP 3.99 3.77 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.57 8.76 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.80 4.09 4.23
BP FIP 4.05 3.52 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.25
BP K/9 7.37 9.62
BP Quality* 50.3 47.0 46.1
BP IP 282.0 231.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jose Corniell (69 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Joe Ross (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0056 (Temp: 1.0264 | Wind: 0.9797)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.5 - MIA 3.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.5 - MIA 3.9
Win Probability: TEX 45.9% - MIA 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +118 / MIA -118
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 45.2%
Under 7.5: 54.8%
TEX -1.5: 28.3%
MIA +1.5: 71.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 1.9 - MIA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.9 - MIA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TEX 50.0% - MIA 50.0% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +100 / MIA -100
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML -120 +118 -8.7%
MIA ML -101 -118 +3.9%
TEX -1.5 +141 +254 -13.2%
MIA +1.5 -171 -254 +8.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -7.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +2.4%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Miami Marlins +1.5 (Run Line) [-171]
Model: 71.7% | Market: 63.1% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -254 | Kelly: 5.85%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00838
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Javier Assad Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 3.68 ERA: 2.75
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 5.52 K/9: 10.6
BB/9: 2.77 BB/9: 3.2
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 2.96
IP: 44.0 IP: 83.3
xERA: 4.86 xERA: 3.51
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
Record 41-37 34-44
R/Game 4.81 4.06 4.49
RA/Game 4.50 4.50 4.48
OPS 0.741 0.670 0.719
wOBA 0.322 0.289 0.310
ERA 4.30 4.14 4.18
FIP 4.52 3.78 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.29 1.31
K/9 7.96 9.11 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.530 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 3.41 4.23
BP FIP 4.78 3.54 4.05
BP WHIP 1.34 1.20
BP K/9 7.97 9.31
BP Quality* 50.1 42.7 46.1
BP IP 262.0 248.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0005 (Temp: 1.0104 | Wind: 0.9903)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 3.7 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.8 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: CHC 45.0% - NYM 55.0%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +122 / NYM -122
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.5: 41.5%
Under 8.5: 58.5%
CHC -1.5: 28.6%
NYM +1.5: 71.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 1.9 - NYM 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.9 - NYM 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CHC 44.1% - NYM 55.9% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +126 / NYM -126
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +100 +122 -5.0%
NYM ML -121 -122 +0.2%
CHC -1.5 +156 +249 -10.4%
NYM +1.5 -190 -249 +5.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -10.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +6.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets (Game 2)
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Sean Manaea
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
Record 41-37 34-44
R/Game 4.81 4.06 4.49
RA/Game 4.50 4.50 4.48
OPS 0.741 0.670 0.719
wOBA 0.322 0.289 0.310
ERA 4.30 4.14 4.18
FIP 4.52 3.78 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.29 1.31
K/9 7.96 9.11 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.530 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 3.41 4.23
BP FIP 4.78 3.54 4.05
BP WHIP 1.34 1.20
BP K/9 7.97 9.31
BP Quality* 50.1 45.7 46.1
BP IP 262.0 248.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0005 (Temp: 1.0104 | Wind: 0.9903)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.7 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.7 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: CHC 54.5% - NYM 45.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -120 / NYM +120
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.2%
Under 8.5: 49.8%
CHC -1.5: 38.6%
NYM +1.5: 61.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.7 - NYM 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.7 - NYM 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CHC 57.7% - NYM 42.3% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -136 / NYM +136
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +100 -120 +4.5%
NYM ML -121 +120 -9.3%
CHC -1.5 +156 +159 -0.4%
NYM +1.5 -190 -159 -4.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tanner Bibee Home: Erick Fedde
ERA: 4.14 ERA: 5.25
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 7.94 K/9: 5.49
BB/9: 2.74 BB/9: 4.09
FIP: 4.36 FIP: 5.18
IP: 89.3 IP: 70.7
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Tanner Bibee)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
Record 41-39 41-37
R/Game 3.95 4.63 4.49
RA/Game 4.06 4.65 4.48
OPS 0.682 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.80 4.37 4.18
FIP 3.84 4.21 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.37 8.38 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 5.03 4.23
BP FIP 3.52 4.80 4.05
BP WHIP 1.30 1.38
BP K/9 10.44 7.97
BP Quality* 43.1 58.8 46.1
BP IP 260.3 241.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 21%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9723 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 0.9723)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 4.8 - CWS 4.4
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.8 - CWS 4.4
Win Probability: CLE 53.7% - CWS 46.3%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -116 / CWS +116
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.0%
Under 8.5: 47.0%
CLE -1.5: 38.0%
CWS +1.5: 62.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.7 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.7 - CWS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CLE 53.7% - CWS 46.3% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -116 / CWS +116
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -114 -116 +0.4%
CWS ML -105 +116 -4.9%
CLE -1.5 +143 +163 -3.1%
CWS +1.5 -174 -163 -1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 3.09 ERA: 5.86
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.48
K/9: 8.7 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 2.43 BB/9: 2.13
FIP: 2.94 FIP: 4.34
IP: 76.7 IP: 66.0
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.278 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS COL Lg Avg
Record 32-45 31-49
R/Game 3.91 4.51 4.49
RA/Game 3.97 5.66 4.48
OPS 0.693 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.82 5.47 4.18
FIP 3.81 4.62 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.52 1.31
K/9 8.58 7.32 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.398 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.82 5.29 4.23
BP FIP 3.90 4.43 4.05
BP WHIP 1.29 1.55
BP K/9 8.82 7.72
BP Quality* 44.9 56.2 46.1
BP IP 228.7 318.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0512 (Temp: 1.0279 | Wind: 1.0226)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 5.5 - COL 4.6
Simulated Avg: BOS 5.6 - COL 4.6
Win Probability: BOS 58.1% - COL 41.9%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -139 / COL +139
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 11.0: 36.7%
Under 11.0: 55.6%
BOS -1.5: 43.7%
COL +1.5: 56.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 3.1 - COL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 3.1 - COL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: BOS 62.3% - COL 37.7% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -165 / COL +165
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -171 -139 -4.9%
COL ML +141 +139 +0.4%
BOS -1.5 -115 +129 -9.8%
COL +1.5 -105 -129 +5.1%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -15.7%
U 11.0 -110 N/A +3.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trey Gibson Home: José Soriano
ERA: 5.81 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.71 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 6.84 K/9: 8.78
BB/9: 5.81 BB/9: 4.31
FIP: 5.5 FIP: 3.73
IP: 26.3 IP: 92.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: LAA (José Soriano)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL LAA Lg Avg
Record 38-43 33-48
R/Game 4.64 4.53 4.49
RA/Game 4.94 4.99 4.48
OPS 0.722 0.719 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.42 4.62 4.18
FIP 4.19 4.25 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.42 1.31
K/9 7.93 8.87 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.456 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 4.79 4.23
BP FIP 4.20 4.62 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.49
BP K/9 8.79 9.19
BP Quality* 48.7 56.4 46.1
BP IP 290.7 296.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (30 pitches yesterday)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9859 (Temp: 1.0091 | Wind: 0.9770)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.7 - LAA 5.2
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.7 - LAA 5.2
Win Probability: BAL 45.3% - LAA 54.7%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +121 / LAA -121
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.0: 50.5%
Under 9.0: 40.6%
BAL +1.5: 60.6%
LAA -1.5: 39.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.3 - LAA 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.3 - LAA 3.0
F5 Win Prob: BAL 39.8% - LAA 60.2% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +151 / LAA -151
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +104 +121 -3.7%
LAA ML -126 -121 -1.1%
BAL +1.5 -193 -154 -5.2%
LAA -1.5 +158 +154 +0.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryan Woo Home: Braxton Ashcraft
ERA: 3.37 ERA: 2.91
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 9.27 K/9: 9.37
BB/9: 1.69 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 3.2 FIP: 2.74
IP: 89.0 IP: 90.7
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA PIT Lg Avg
Record 41-39 39-40
R/Game 4.11 4.97 4.49
RA/Game 3.89 4.81 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.742 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.322 0.310
ERA 3.59 4.16 4.18
FIP 3.40 3.70 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.87 9.16 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.20 4.44 4.23
BP FIP 3.40 3.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.30 1.39
BP K/9 9.01 9.36
BP Quality* 42.3 48.2 46.1
BP IP 224.7 227.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9925 (Temp: 1.0087 | Wind: 0.9839)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.4 - PIT 4.1
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.3 - PIT 4.1
Win Probability: SEA 41.7% - PIT 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +140 / PIT -140
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.0: 36.0%
Under 8.0: 54.0%
SEA -1.5: 24.9%
PIT +1.5: 75.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.6 - PIT 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.6 - PIT 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 40.4% - PIT 59.6% (Tie: 19.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +148 / PIT -148
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -102 +140 -8.8%
PIT ML -118 -140 +4.2%
SEA -1.5 +165 +302 -12.9%
PIT +1.5 -201 -302 +8.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -16.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +1.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line) [-201]
Model: 75.1% | Market: 66.8% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -302 | Kelly: 6.29%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00839
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Noah Cameron Home: Griffin Jax
ERA: 3.47 ERA: 4.07
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 7.81 K/9: 12.06
BB/9: 2.59 BB/9: 2.99
FIP: 3.8 FIP: 3.08
IP: 75.0 IP: 49.0
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 3.26
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: TB (Griffin Jax)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC TB Lg Avg
Record 34-46 43-33
R/Game 4.31 4.38 4.49
RA/Game 4.76 4.38 4.48
OPS 0.717 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.54 3.94 4.18
FIP 4.43 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.23 1.31
K/9 7.90 7.95 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.26 4.30 4.23
BP FIP 5.09 4.22 4.05
BP WHIP 1.56 1.31
BP K/9 8.03 7.94
BP Quality* 62.2 48.3 46.1
BP IP 285.7 278.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Connor Seabold (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Steven Matz (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.7 - TB 4.7
Simulated Avg: KC 3.7 - TB 4.7
Win Probability: KC 39.7% - TB 60.3%
Fair Moneyline: KC +152 / TB -152
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.5%
Under 7.5: 44.5%
KC +1.5: 56.6%
TB -1.5: 43.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 1.9 - TB 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.9 - TB 2.1
F5 Win Prob: KC 44.2% - TB 55.8% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +126 / TB -126
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +124 +152 -4.9%
TB ML -149 -152 +0.4%
KC +1.5 -172 -130 -6.7%
TB -1.5 +142 +130 +2.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Weathers Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 2.42
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 9.19 K/9: 10.7
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 1.47
FIP: 4.4 FIP: 2.41
IP: 80.7 IP: 53.7
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 2.71
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.258
Pitcher Edge: DET (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY DET Lg Avg
Record 47-31 34-45
R/Game 5.08 4.08 4.49
RA/Game 3.65 4.13 4.48
OPS 0.767 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.329 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.37 3.83 4.18
FIP 3.49 3.78 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.81 8.33 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.646 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.38 4.00 4.23
BP FIP 3.55 3.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.24 1.35
BP K/9 8.50 8.68
BP Quality* 44.7 49.5 46.1
BP IP 266.7 296.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Will Vest (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 21%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9869 (Temp: 1.0042 | Wind: 0.9828)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 3.9 - DET 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 3.9 - DET 4.0
Win Probability: NYY 48.0% - DET 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYY +108 / DET -108
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.5: 50.6%
Under 7.5: 49.4%
NYY +1.5: 65.6%
DET -1.5: 34.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 1.6 - DET 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 1.6 - DET 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYY 38.7% - DET 61.3% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +159 / DET -159
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML +119 +108 +2.3%
DET ML -143 -108 -6.8%
NYY +1.5 -186 -191 +0.6%
DET -1.5 +153 +191 -5.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -3.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Aaron Nola Home: Miles Mikolas
ERA: 5.88 ERA: 4.95
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 9.21 K/9: 5.67
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 5.03
IP: 75.7 IP: 74.0
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 5.27
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Aaron Nola)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
Record 43-36 41-39
R/Game 4.35 5.36 4.49
RA/Game 4.38 5.24 4.48
OPS 0.701 0.745 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.13 4.71 4.18
FIP 3.56 4.63 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.39 1.31
K/9 9.61 7.79 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.497 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.91 5.36 4.23
BP FIP 3.24 4.86 4.05
BP WHIP 1.29 1.49
BP K/9 9.97 7.82
BP Quality* 44.9 63.9 46.1
BP IP 269.0 252.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Brad Lord (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Richard Lovelady (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paxton Schultz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zack Littell (59 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0026 (Temp: 1.0123 | Wind: 0.9904)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 5.4 - WSH 5.7
Simulated Avg: PHI 5.4 - WSH 5.7
Win Probability: PHI 47.2% - WSH 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +112 / WSH -112
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 9.5: 59.8%
Under 9.5: 40.2%
PHI -1.5: 33.9%
WSH +1.5: 66.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.9 - WSH 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.9 - WSH 3.3
F5 Win Prob: PHI 43.7% - WSH 56.3% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +129 / WSH -129
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -136 +112 -10.4%
WSH ML +113 -112 +5.9%
PHI -1.5 +119 +195 -11.8%
WSH +1.5 -144 -195 +7.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -12.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 2 (2 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.87%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00840
[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-144]
Model: 66.1% | Market: 59.0% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -195 | Kelly: 4.35%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00841
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mike Burrows Home: Trey Yesavage
ERA: 4.68 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.45 K/9: 8.67
BB/9: 3.11 BB/9: 4.09
FIP: 4.49 FIP: 3.72
IP: 79.3 IP: 55.0
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Trey Yesavage)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TOR Lg Avg
Record 38-43 39-40
R/Game 4.53 4.14 4.49
RA/Game 5.04 4.46 4.48
OPS 0.732 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.81 4.13 4.18
FIP 4.52 3.90 4.04
WHIP 1.41 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.78 8.93 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.452 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.82 3.76 4.23
BP FIP 4.63 3.60 4.05
BP WHIP 1.41 1.31
BP K/9 8.68 8.86
BP Quality* 60.4 46.6 46.1
BP IP 296.7 266.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Enyel De Los Santos (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Logan VanWey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Braydon Fisher (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9922 (Temp: 0.9922 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.2 - TOR 4.9
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.2 - TOR 4.9
Win Probability: HOU 43.3% - TOR 56.7%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +131 / TOR -131
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 52.8%
Under 8.5: 47.1%
HOU +1.5: 59.2%
TOR -1.5: 40.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.3 - TOR 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.3 - TOR 2.5
F5 Win Prob: HOU 46.8% - TOR 53.2% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +114 / TOR -114
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +134 +131 +0.5%
TOR ML -162 -131 -5.1%
HOU +1.5 -162 -145 -2.6%
TOR -1.5 +134 +145 -2.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Drohan Home: Rhett Lowder
ERA: 3.4 ERA: 4.82
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 8.87 K/9: 7.22
BB/9: 2.64 BB/9: 4.82
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 4.34
IP: 47.7 IP: 52.3
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
Record 48-29 37-41
R/Game 5.21 4.18 4.49
RA/Game 3.62 4.81 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.695 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.301 0.310
ERA 3.35 4.49 4.18
FIP 3.32 4.75 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.45 1.31
K/9 9.96 8.03 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.660 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 4.85 4.23
BP FIP 3.54 4.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.30 1.50
BP K/9 9.33 8.46
BP Quality* 45.8 61.4 46.1
BP IP 265.3 304.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chase Petty (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0256 (Temp: 1.0093 | Wind: 1.0162)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 6.6 - CIN 4.0
Simulated Avg: MIL 6.7 - CIN 4.0
Win Probability: MIL 71.5% - CIN 28.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -251 / CIN +251
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.5: 56.4%
Under 9.5: 43.6%
MIL -1.5: 58.3%
CIN +1.5: 41.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.4 - CIN 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.4 - CIN 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIL 71.0% - CIN 29.0% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -244 / CIN +244
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -147 -251 +12.0%
CIN ML +122 +251 -16.6%
MIL -1.5 +106 -140 +9.8%
CIN +1.5 -128 +140 -14.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -8.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [+106]
Model: 58.3% | Market: 48.5% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -140 | Kelly: 4.75%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00842
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -147 | Edge: 12.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00843
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shohei Ohtani Home: Joe Ryan
ERA: 2.39 ERA: 3.22
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 11.07 K/9: 10.21
BB/9: 2.05 BB/9: 1.96
FIP: 2.06 FIP: 3.1
IP: 73.7 IP: 87.3
xERA: 2.55 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.25 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Shohei Ohtani)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIN Lg Avg
Record 51-29 38-43
R/Game 5.24 4.84 4.49
RA/Game 3.45 5.19 4.48
OPS 0.783 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.335 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.42 4.83 4.18
FIP 3.61 4.18 4.04
WHIP 1.10 1.41 1.31
K/9 8.97 8.26 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.682 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.91 5.41 4.23
BP FIP 3.54 4.44 4.05
BP WHIP 1.24 1.57
BP K/9 9.82 8.34
BP Quality* 43.1 61.3 46.1
BP IP 253.0 337.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Taylor Rogers (B2B, 38 pitches)
TIRED: Austin Voth (96 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Travis Adams (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0107 (Temp: 0.9995 | Wind: 1.0112)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.3 - MIN 3.6
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.2 - MIN 3.6
Win Probability: LAD 66.0% - MIN 34.0%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -194 / MIN +194
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 50.1%
Under 8.0: 40.5%
LAD -1.5: 50.1%
MIN +1.5: 49.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.3 - MIN 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.3 - MIN 1.5
F5 Win Prob: LAD 65.2% - MIN 34.8% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -188 / MIN +188
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -181 -194 +1.6%
MIN ML +149 +194 -6.2%
LAD -1.5 -105 -100 -1.1%
MIN +1.5 -114 +100 -3.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Matthew Liberatore
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
Record 40-39 42-35
R/Game 4.27 4.61 4.49
RA/Game 4.58 4.56 4.48
OPS 0.692 0.727 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.29 4.25 4.18
FIP 4.28 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.34 1.31
K/9 7.09 7.61 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 4.43 4.23
BP FIP 3.71 4.25 4.05
BP WHIP 1.19 1.38
BP K/9 7.86 8.03
BP Quality* 46.6 58.7 46.1
BP IP 239.3 290.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Max Rajcic (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0025 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 0.9957)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.9 - STL 4.7
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.9 - STL 4.7
Win Probability: ARI 51.5% - STL 48.5%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -106 / STL +106
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 47.8%
Under 9.0: 43.4%
ARI -1.5: 36.4%
STL +1.5: 63.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.6 - STL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.6 - STL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ARI 50.0% - STL 50.0% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +100 / STL -100
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -102 -106 +1.0%
STL ML -118 +106 -5.6%
ARI -1.5 +159 +175 -2.2%
STL +1.5 -194 -175 -2.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Martín Pérez Home: JP Sears
ERA: 3.3 ERA: 5.04
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.18 K/9: 7.76
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 2.39
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 5.05
IP: 68.0 IP: 135.7
xERA: 5.37 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Martín Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SD Lg Avg
Record 48-30 41-37
R/Game 4.91 3.90 4.49
RA/Game 3.69 4.00 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.657 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.285 0.310
ERA 3.40 3.88 4.18
FIP 3.83 3.81 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.73 8.47 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.628 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.69 3.02 4.23
BP FIP 3.35 3.04 4.05
BP WHIP 1.07 1.13
BP K/9 9.04 10.13
BP Quality* 36.8 42.9 46.1
BP IP 224.0 235.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Carlos Carrasco (30 pitches yesterday)
SD: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0046 (Temp: 0.9966 | Wind: 1.0080)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.9 - SD 3.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.9 - SD 3.5
Win Probability: ATL 63.2% - SD 36.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -172 / SD +172
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 46.4%
Under 8.5: 53.6%
ATL -1.5: 46.6%
SD +1.5: 53.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 3.0 - SD 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.0 - SD 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATL 62.5% - SD 37.5% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -167 / SD +167
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -122 -172 +8.3%
SD ML +101 +172 -13.0%
ATL -1.5 +132 +115 +3.4%
SD +1.5 -159 -115 -7.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -6.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gage Jump Home: Tyler Mahle
ERA: 2.37 ERA: 3.39
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 7.54
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 2.27 FIP: 3.82
IP: 30.3 IP: 56.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Gage Jump)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SF Lg Avg
Record 38-41 32-46
R/Game 4.62 4.10 4.49
RA/Game 5.33 4.77 4.48
OPS 0.745 0.729 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.98 4.40 4.18
FIP 4.65 4.13 4.04
WHIP 1.45 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.41 8.04 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.432 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.46 4.32 4.23
BP FIP 4.55 4.34 4.05
BP WHIP 1.56 1.46
BP K/9 9.38 7.66
BP Quality* 55.6 49.1 46.1
BP IP 282.0 269.0
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Krook (2 of last 3 days)
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9594 (Temp: 0.9838 | Wind: 0.9752)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - SF 3.1
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.0 - SF 3.1
Win Probability: ATH 60.0% - SF 40.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATH -150 / SF +150
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 8.5: 33.8%
Under 8.5: 66.2%
ATH -1.5: 41.3%
SF +1.5: 58.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.1 - SF 1.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.1 - SF 1.2
F5 Win Prob: ATH 71.0% - SF 29.0% (Tie: 20.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -245 / SF +245
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML -115 -150 +6.5%
SF ML -105 +150 -11.2%
ATH -1.5 +143 +142 +0.2%
SF +1.5 -173 -142 -4.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -18.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +13.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00844