2026-06-25
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-25
Games: 9 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Seth Lugo Home: Casey Legumina
ERA: 3.95 ERA: 5.56
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 7.41 K/9: 9.87
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 4.46
FIP: 4.36 FIP: 4.2
IP: 85.3 IP: 31.3
xERA: 5.16 xERA: 3.82
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC TB Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.30 4.39 4.49
RA/Game 4.77 4.36 4.48
OPS 0.717 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.55 3.90 4.18
FIP 4.41 4.05 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.23 1.31
K/9 7.89 8.01 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.453 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.21 4.27 4.22
BP FIP 5.07 4.21 4.05
BP WHIP 1.55 1.30
BP K/9 7.98 7.99
BP Quality* 57.4 48.1 46.1
BP IP 288.7 282.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.2 - TB 5.0
Simulated Avg: KC 4.2 - TB 4.9
Win Probability: KC 43.1% - TB 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: KC +132 / TB -132
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.0%
Under 8.0: 38.0%
KC +1.5: 59.2%
TB -1.5: 40.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.4 - TB 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.4 - TB 2.6
F5 Win Prob: KC 47.2% - TB 52.8% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +112 / TB -112
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +119 +132 -2.6%
TB ML -144 -132 -2.1%
KC +1.5 -175 -145 -4.4%
TB -1.5 +144 +145 -0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryce Miller Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 4.98 ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.77 K/9: 8.7
BB/9: 3.0 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 4.68 FIP: 3.22
IP: 40.0 IP: 74.0
xERA: 5.27 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Bubba Chandler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA PIT Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.07 5.05 4.49
RA/Game 3.98 4.76 4.48
OPS 0.697 0.747 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.323 0.310
ERA 3.69 4.12 4.18
FIP 3.39 3.66 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.86 9.21 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.38 4.44 4.22
BP FIP 3.38 3.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.33 1.39
BP K/9 8.97 9.36
BP Quality* 40.0 48.2 46.1
BP IP 228.7 227.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9829 (Temp: 1.0126 | Wind: 0.9706)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.6 - PIT 5.2
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.6 - PIT 5.2
Win Probability: SEA 34.4% - PIT 65.6%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +191 / PIT -191
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.6%
Under 8.5: 49.4%
SEA -1.5: 20.8%
PIT +1.5: 79.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.9 - PIT 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.9 - PIT 3.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 29.2% - PIT 70.8% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +242 / PIT -242
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -144 +191 -24.6%
PIT ML +119 -191 +20.0%
SEA -1.5 +117 +381 -25.3%
PIT +1.5 -141 -381 +20.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +119 | Edge: 20.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00845
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -141 | Edge: 20.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00846
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jeffrey Springs Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 4.77 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 7.53 K/9: 9.19
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 3.76
FIP: 5.05 FIP: 3.42
IP: 82.7 IP: 80.3
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH SF Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.58 4.08 4.49
RA/Game 5.29 4.72 4.48
OPS 0.742 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.95 4.36 4.18
FIP 4.64 4.13 4.04
WHIP 1.44 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.47 8.02 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.434 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.45 4.30 4.22
BP FIP 4.62 4.36 4.05
BP WHIP 1.55 1.45
BP K/9 9.39 7.67
BP Quality* 54.3 49.0 46.1
BP IP 285.7 272.3
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9641 (Temp: 0.9904 | Wind: 0.9735)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - SF 4.4
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.0 - SF 4.4
Win Probability: ATH 46.2% - SF 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +116 / SF -116
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 45.7%
Under 8.0: 44.5%
ATH +1.5: 63.2%
SF -1.5: 36.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.1 - SF 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.1 - SF 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 45.7% - SF 54.3% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +119 / SF -119
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +113 +116 -0.7%
SF ML -136 -116 -3.8%
ATH +1.5 -191 -172 -2.4%
SF -1.5 +157 +172 -2.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tatsuya Imai Home: Troy Melton
ERA: 6.15 ERA: 2.73
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 10.54 K/9: 6.85
BB/9: 5.27 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 4.42 FIP: 4.6
IP: 41.0 IP: 31.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU DET Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.51 4.05 4.49
RA/Game 4.99 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.707 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.76 3.83 4.18
FIP 4.51 3.79 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.75 8.39 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.78 3.96 4.22
BP FIP 4.60 3.92 4.05
BP WHIP 1.41 1.34
BP K/9 8.68 8.71
BP Quality* 58.6 46.1 46.1
BP IP 299.7 299.7
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Logan VanWey (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Enmanuel De Jesus (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9877 (Temp: 1.0096 | Wind: 0.9784)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.1 - DET 5.0
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.1 - DET 5.0
Win Probability: HOU 41.2% - DET 58.8%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +143 / DET -143
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.0: 43.5%
Under 9.0: 47.8%
HOU -1.5: 26.5%
DET +1.5: 73.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - DET 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - DET 2.7
F5 Win Prob: HOU 41.4% - DET 58.6% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +141 / DET -141
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML -105 +143 -10.1%
DET ML -114 -143 +5.6%
HOU -1.5 +155 +278 -12.8%
DET +1.5 -189 -278 +8.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -4.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Detroit Tigers +1.5 (Run Line) [-189]
Model: 73.6% | Market: 65.4% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -278 | Kelly: 5.89%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00847
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | June 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 2.18 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 9.87 K/9: 8.38
BB/9: 1.85 BB/9: 2.99
FIP: 2.34 FIP: 3.71
IP: 105.0 IP: 77.3
xERA: 3.02 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.36 5.35 4.49
RA/Game 4.38 5.23 4.48
OPS 0.699 0.746 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.12 4.69 4.18
FIP 3.59 4.62 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.39 1.31
K/9 9.62 7.77 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.510 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.92 5.34 4.22
BP FIP 3.26 4.82 4.05
BP WHIP 1.29 1.48
BP K/9 9.99 7.84
BP Quality* 45.0 62.1 46.1
BP IP 273.0 256.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Richard Lovelady (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Miles Mikolas (60 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9987 (Temp: 1.0216 | Wind: 0.9776)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.7 - WSH 4.0
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.7 - WSH 4.1
Win Probability: PHI 55.7% - WSH 44.3%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -126 / WSH +126
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.9%
Under 8.5: 51.1%
PHI -1.5: 39.4%
WSH +1.5: 60.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.2 - WSH 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.2 - WSH 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 58.8% - WSH 41.2% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -143 / WSH +143
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -174 -126 -7.8%
WSH ML +143 +126 +3.2%
PHI -1.5 -104 +154 -11.6%
WSH +1.5 -115 -154 +7.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-115]
Model: 60.6% | Market: 53.5% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -154 | Kelly: 3.82%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00848
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 4.12 ERA: 3.8
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 10.17 K/9: 8.9
BB/9: 3.77 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 3.55 FIP: 3.35
IP: 84.0 IP: 89.0
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TOR Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 3.99 4.10 4.49
RA/Game 4.16 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.706 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.97 4.10 4.18
FIP 3.98 3.90 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.61 8.92 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.480 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.83 3.72 4.22
BP FIP 4.08 3.58 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.30
BP K/9 7.42 8.89
BP Quality* 46.0 49.3 46.1
BP IP 284.0 268.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 0.9849 | Wind: 1.0185)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.7 - TOR 4.1
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.7 - TOR 4.1
Win Probability: TEX 45.9% - TOR 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +118 / TOR -118
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 39.9%
Under 8.0: 50.4%
TEX +1.5: 63.9%
TOR -1.5: 36.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.9 - TOR 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.9 - TOR 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TEX 44.5% - TOR 55.5% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +125 / TOR -125
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +129 +118 +2.2%
TOR ML -156 -118 -6.8%
TEX +1.5 -171 -177 +0.8%
TOR -1.5 +141 +177 -5.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 3.61 ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.27 K/9: 9.63
BB/9: 2.12 BB/9: 3.46
FIP: 3.3 FIP: 3.78
IP: 24.0 IP: 85.7
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.94 4.06 4.49
RA/Game 4.49 4.64 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.674 0.719
wOBA 0.323 0.291 0.310
ERA 4.30 4.22 4.18
FIP 4.58 3.78 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.29 1.31
K/9 7.97 9.19 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.544 0.440 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.34 3.22 4.22
BP FIP 4.76 3.59 4.05
BP WHIP 1.34 1.17
BP K/9 8.01 9.36
BP Quality* 52.7 43.6 46.1
BP IP 269.7 201.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Pintaro (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9888 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 0.9879)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.2 - NYM 4.1
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.2 - NYM 4.1
Win Probability: CHC 50.3% - NYM 49.7%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -101 / NYM +101
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 45.1%
Under 8.5: 54.9%
CHC -1.5: 33.9%
NYM +1.5: 66.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.3 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.3 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CHC 53.0% - NYM 47.0% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -113 / NYM +113
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -108 -101 -1.6%
NYM ML -112 +101 -3.1%
CHC -1.5 +147 +195 -6.6%
NYM +1.5 -179 -195 +2.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Connelly Early
ERA: 2.39 ERA: 3.64
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 10.35 K/9: 8.71
BB/9: 2.86 BB/9: 3.42
FIP: 2.84 FIP: 4.53
IP: 95.0 IP: 81.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 2.35
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.24
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BOS Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.06 3.94 4.49
RA/Game 3.63 4.03 4.48
OPS 0.766 0.697 0.719
wOBA 0.328 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.34 3.82 4.18
FIP 3.46 3.77 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.84 8.63 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.647 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 3.86 4.22
BP FIP 3.52 3.87 4.05
BP WHIP 1.24 1.30
BP K/9 8.58 8.82
BP Quality* 42.9 48.0 46.1
BP IP 269.7 230.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0282 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 1.0236)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 5.0 - BOS 3.6
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.0 - BOS 3.6
Win Probability: NYY 63.5% - BOS 36.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -174 / BOS +174
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.0%
Under 7.5: 43.0%
NYY -1.5: 47.0%
BOS +1.5: 53.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.5 - BOS 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - BOS 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYY 63.2% - BOS 36.8% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -172 / BOS +172
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -151 -174 +3.3%
BOS ML +125 +174 -7.9%
NYY -1.5 +111 +113 -0.3%
BOS +1.5 -134 -113 -4.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zac Gallen Home: Michael McGreevy
ERA: 5.41 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 7.13 K/9: 5.57
BB/9: 2.97 BB/9: 2.0
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 4.26
IP: 79.7 IP: 83.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: STL (Michael McGreevy)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.33 4.60 4.49
RA/Game 4.58 4.62 4.48
OPS 0.696 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.29 4.30 4.18
FIP 4.28 4.19 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.35 1.31
K/9 7.09 7.57 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 4.44 4.22
BP FIP 3.71 4.25 4.05
BP WHIP 1.19 1.39
BP K/9 7.83 7.99
BP Quality* 45.1 52.8 46.1
BP IP 248.3 294.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Gordon Graceffo (B2B, 32 pitches)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 41%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0151 (Temp: 1.0175 | Wind: 0.9976)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.6 - STL 5.0
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.6 - STL 5.0
Win Probability: ARI 45.9% - STL 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +118 / STL -118
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 48.1%
Under 9.0: 43.0%
ARI +1.5: 61.3%
STL -1.5: 38.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.5 - STL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.5 - STL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ARI 43.0% - STL 57.0% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +132 / STL -132
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +113 +118 -1.1%
STL ML -136 -118 -3.5%
ARI +1.5 -186 -159 -3.7%
STL -1.5 +153 +159 -0.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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