2026-06-26
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-26
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Spencer Arrighetti Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 4.59 ERA: 4.09
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 8.23 K/9: 6.65
BB/9: 4.77 BB/9: 2.61
FIP: 4.7 FIP: 4.45
IP: 69.0 IP: 80.7
xERA: 5.44 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.356 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU DET Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.48 4.01 4.49
RA/Game 4.94 4.10 4.49
OPS 0.726 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.72 3.80 4.18
FIP 4.48 3.78 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.80 8.37 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.456 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 3.95 4.23
BP FIP 4.61 3.91 4.06
BP WHIP 1.40 1.34
BP K/9 8.68 8.65
BP Quality* 55.5 49.0 46.2
BP IP 302.7 302.7
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enmanuel De Jesus (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0226 (Temp: 1.0015 | Wind: 1.0211)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.7 - DET 4.9
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.7 - DET 4.9
Win Probability: HOU 48.0% - DET 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +108 / DET -108
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 48.4%
Under 9.0: 43.0%
HOU -1.5: 33.3%
DET +1.5: 66.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.6 - DET 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.6 - DET 2.7
F5 Win Prob: HOU 49.1% - DET 50.9% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +104 / DET -104
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML -105 +108 -3.2%
DET ML -115 -108 -1.5%
HOU -1.5 +158 +201 -5.5%
DET +1.5 -193 -201 +0.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 2.38
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 7.48 K/9: 10.63
BB/9: 3.16 BB/9: 1.93
FIP: 4.14 FIP: 2.4
IP: 84.7 IP: 88.0
xERA: 3.56 xERA: 2.65
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.255
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.19 5.05 4.49
RA/Game 4.82 4.72 4.49
OPS 0.698 0.746 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.323 0.310
ERA 4.51 4.08 4.18
FIP 4.76 3.66 4.04
WHIP 1.45 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.03 9.18 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.531 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.89 4.40 4.23
BP FIP 4.95 3.98 4.06
BP WHIP 1.51 1.40
BP K/9 8.42 9.30
BP Quality* 54.1 48.3 46.2
BP IP 307.7 229.3
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9917 (Temp: 1.0075 | Wind: 0.9843)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.1 - PIT 5.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.1 - PIT 5.0
Win Probability: CIN 30.1% - PIT 69.9%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +232 / PIT -232
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 53.7%
Under 7.5: 46.3%
CIN +1.5: 46.9%
PIT -1.5: 53.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 1.3 - PIT 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.3 - PIT 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CIN 28.0% - PIT 72.0% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +258 / PIT -258
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +159 +232 -8.5%
PIT ML -194 -232 +3.9%
CIN +1.5 -131 +113 -9.8%
PIT -1.5 +108 -113 +5.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +1.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Alvarez Home: Trevor Rogers
ERA: 3.34 ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 10.3 K/9: 7.73
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 2.61
FIP: 2.73 FIP: 3.32
IP: 32.3 IP: 73.0
xERA: 2.87 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.265 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BAL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.34 4.66 4.49
RA/Game 5.29 4.96 4.49
OPS 0.744 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.75 4.43 4.18
FIP 4.64 4.17 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.79 8.04 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.56 4.49 4.23
BP FIP 4.93 4.15 4.06
BP WHIP 1.51 1.32
BP K/9 7.85 8.99
BP Quality* 62.1 47.0 46.2
BP IP 259.0 296.3
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mitchell Parker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Richard Lovelady (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0157 (Temp: 1.0128 | Wind: 1.0029)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.8 - BAL 4.8
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.8 - BAL 4.8
Win Probability: WSH 50.2% - BAL 49.8%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -101 / BAL +101
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 47.6%
Under 9.0: 43.6%
WSH +1.5: 65.5%
BAL -1.5: 34.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.4 - BAL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.4 - BAL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: WSH 59.2% - BAL 40.8% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -145 / BAL +145
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +119 -101 +4.5%
BAL ML -143 +101 -9.0%
WSH +1.5 -171 -190 +2.4%
BAL -1.5 +141 +190 -7.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Patrick Corbin
ERA: 2.81 ERA: 4.53
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 8.9 K/9: 7.17
BB/9: 1.74 BB/9: 3.05
FIP: 3.29 FIP: 4.22
IP: 93.3 IP: 64.7
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 4.77
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TOR Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.01 4.11 4.49
RA/Game 4.17 4.46 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.702 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.98 4.13 4.18
FIP 3.97 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.60 8.87 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 3.72 4.23
BP FIP 4.09 3.58 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.30
BP K/9 7.46 8.89
BP Quality* 44.7 47.8 46.2
BP IP 286.0 268.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Simeon Woods Richardson (43 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9848 (Temp: 0.9897 | Wind: 0.9951)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 4.1 - TOR 3.4
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.1 - TOR 3.4
Win Probability: TEX 57.1% - TOR 42.9%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -133 / TOR +133
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.5: 37.2%
Under 8.5: 62.8%
TEX -1.5: 39.5%
TOR +1.5: 60.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.3 - TOR 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.3 - TOR 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TEX 62.9% - TOR 37.1% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -169 / TOR +169
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML -112 -133 +4.2%
TOR ML -107 +133 -8.8%
TEX -1.5 +144 +153 -1.5%
TOR +1.5 -175 -153 -3.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -15.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +10.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00849
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luis Castillo Home: Joey Cantillo
ERA: 4.12 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 8.32 K/9: 9.45
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 4.06
FIP: 3.77 FIP: 3.91
IP: 70.7 IP: 80.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA CLE Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.04 3.95 4.49
RA/Game 3.99 4.05 4.49
OPS 0.695 0.679 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.296 0.310
ERA 3.71 3.79 4.18
FIP 3.39 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.93 9.30 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 3.88 4.23
BP FIP 3.37 3.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.32
BP K/9 8.96 10.35
BP Quality* 43.1 43.9 46.2
BP IP 231.0 264.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9884 (Temp: 0.9981 | Wind: 0.9903)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.5 - CLE 3.6
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.5 - CLE 3.6
Win Probability: SEA 48.1% - CLE 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +108 / CLE -108
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.5: 43.0%
Under 7.5: 57.0%
SEA -1.5: 29.6%
CLE +1.5: 70.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.9 - CLE 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.9 - CLE 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SEA 47.7% - CLE 52.3% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +110 / CLE -110
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -110 +108 -4.3%
CLE ML -110 -108 -0.4%
SEA -1.5 +154 +237 -9.7%
CLE +1.5 -188 -237 +5.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -9.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +4.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zac Gallen Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 5.41 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.13 K/9: 5.98
BB/9: 2.97 BB/9: 2.04
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 3.94
IP: 79.7 IP: 89.0
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI TB Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.33 4.50 4.49
RA/Game 4.58 4.33 4.49
OPS 0.696 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.29 3.87 4.18
FIP 4.28 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.22 1.31
K/9 7.09 8.02 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 4.29 4.23
BP FIP 3.71 4.25 4.06
BP WHIP 1.19 1.30
BP K/9 7.83 7.99
BP Quality* 42.1 48.3 46.2
BP IP 248.3 285.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (90 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.0 - TB 4.6
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.0 - TB 4.6
Win Probability: ARI 44.1% - TB 55.9%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +127 / TB -127
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 47.7%
Under 8.5: 52.3%
ARI +1.5: 60.9%
TB -1.5: 39.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - TB 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - TB 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ARI 40.3% - TB 59.7% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +148 / TB -148
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +114 +127 -2.6%
TB ML -137 -127 -1.9%
ARI +1.5 -180 -155 -3.4%
TB -1.5 +148 +155 -1.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Wheeler Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.43 4.05 4.49
RA/Game 4.38 4.63 4.49
OPS 0.704 0.676 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.292 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.17 4.18
FIP 3.57 3.75 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.65 9.22 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 3.16 4.23
BP FIP 3.22 3.52 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.16
BP K/9 10.04 9.47
BP Quality* 47.5 47.5 46.2
BP IP 277.0 205.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: José Alvarado (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Austin Warren (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9894 (Temp: 1.0071 | Wind: 0.9825)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - NYM 3.2
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - NYM 3.2
Win Probability: PHI 61.0% - NYM 39.0%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -156 / NYM +156
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.0: 36.2%
Under 8.0: 54.0%
PHI -1.5: 43.0%
NYM +1.5: 57.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.3 - NYM 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.3 - NYM 1.4
F5 Win Prob: PHI 67.9% - NYM 32.1% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -211 / NYM +211
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -163 -156 -1.0%
NYM ML +135 +156 -3.6%
PHI -1.5 +104 +132 -6.0%
NYM +1.5 -125 -132 +1.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -16.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +1.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 3.08
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 9.55 K/9: 8.67
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 2.52
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 3.22
IP: 78.3 IP: 64.3
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BOS Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.04 3.96 4.49
RA/Game 3.66 4.01 4.49
OPS 0.765 0.697 0.719
wOBA 0.328 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.30 3.81 4.18
FIP 3.46 3.77 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.87 8.65 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.642 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.30 3.85 4.23
BP FIP 3.52 3.88 4.06
BP WHIP 1.24 1.31
BP K/9 8.52 8.74
BP Quality* 42.8 48.1 46.2
BP IP 272.7 233.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Danny Coulombe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 27%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9943 (Temp: 1.0065 | Wind: 0.9879)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.9 - BOS 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.9 - BOS 4.0
Win Probability: NYY 58.2% - BOS 41.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -139 / BOS +139
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.6%
Under 8.5: 49.4%
NYY -1.5: 42.0%
BOS +1.5: 58.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.6 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - BOS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYY 54.5% - BOS 45.5% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -120 / BOS +120
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -115 -139 +4.7%
BOS ML -105 +139 -9.4%
NYY -1.5 +138 +138 -0.0%
BOS +1.5 -167 -138 -4.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.27 4.61 4.49
RA/Game 4.87 4.65 4.49
OPS 0.712 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.66 4.33 4.18
FIP 4.46 4.18 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.34 1.31
K/9 7.87 8.41 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.34 5.00 4.23
BP FIP 5.08 4.77 4.06
BP WHIP 1.56 1.38
BP K/9 7.96 8.08
BP Quality* 60.9 52.6 46.2
BP IP 291.7 245.0
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Connor Seabold (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0255 (Temp: 0.9930 | Wind: 1.0327)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.5 - CWS 5.5
Simulated Avg: KC 4.5 - CWS 5.5
Win Probability: KC 41.5% - CWS 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +141 / CWS -141
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 59.3%
Under 8.5: 40.7%
KC +1.5: 56.8%
CWS -1.5: 43.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.4 - CWS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.4 - CWS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: KC 45.8% - CWS 54.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +118 / CWS -118
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +113 +141 -5.4%
CWS ML -136 -141 +0.9%
KC +1.5 -193 -131 -9.1%
CWS -1.5 +158 +131 +4.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +6.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -11.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Colin Rea Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 4.31 ERA: 3.11
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 7.01 K/9: 12.5
BB/9: 2.73 BB/9: 3.37
FIP: 4.2 FIP: 2.58
IP: 79.3 IP: 93.0
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.93 5.22 4.49
RA/Game 4.47 3.64 4.49
OPS 0.740 0.729 0.719
wOBA 0.321 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.27 3.38 4.18
FIP 4.60 3.37 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.18 1.31
K/9 7.96 9.91 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.544 0.659 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.35 3.72 4.23
BP FIP 4.82 3.64 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.32
BP K/9 7.99 9.22
BP Quality* 62.0 42.3 46.2
BP IP 275.0 268.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: DEPLETED (penalty +12.0)
UNAVAIL: Jacob Webb (B2B, 26 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Hoby Milner (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Phil Maton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0110 (Temp: 0.9914 | Wind: 1.0198)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 3.9 - MIL 6.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.9 - MIL 6.2
Win Probability: CHC 29.4% - MIL 70.6%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +240 / MIL -240
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 7.0: 68.2%
Under 7.0: 24.0%
CHC +1.5: 43.9%
MIL -1.5: 56.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 1.9 - MIL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.9 - MIL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 32.7% - MIL 67.3% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +205 / MIL -205
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML +215 +240 -2.4%
MIL ML -267 -240 -2.1%
CHC +1.5 -104 +128 -7.1%
MIL -1.5 -115 -128 +2.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +15.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -28.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00850
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 4.67
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 5.71 K/9: 8.75
BB/9: 2.25 BB/9: 3.62
FIP: 5.13 FIP: 4.22
IP: 79.3 IP: 76.7
xERA: 5.81 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIN Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.56 4.82 4.49
RA/Game 5.67 5.17 4.49
OPS 0.734 0.730 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.316 0.310
ERA 5.48 4.82 4.18
FIP 4.62 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.40 1.31
K/9 7.33 8.30 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.401 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.25 5.36 4.23
BP FIP 4.41 4.41 4.06
BP WHIP 1.54 1.56
BP K/9 7.73 8.32
BP Quality* 52.9 53.5 46.2
BP IP 320.3 340.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9926 (Temp: 1.0055 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.8 - MIN 5.9
Simulated Avg: COL 4.9 - MIN 6.0
Win Probability: COL 40.6% - MIN 59.5%
Fair Moneyline: COL +147 / MIN -147
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 9.0: 57.6%
Under 9.0: 34.4%
COL +1.5: 54.7%
MIN -1.5: 45.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - MIN 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - MIN 3.4
F5 Win Prob: COL 39.4% - MIN 60.7% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +154 / MIN -154
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +143 +147 -0.6%
MIN ML -174 -147 -4.1%
COL +1.5 -149 -121 -5.1%
MIN -1.5 +123 +121 +0.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +5.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -18.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Meyer Home: Michael McGreevy
ERA: 3.85 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 9.8 K/9: 5.57
BB/9: 3.06 BB/9: 2.0
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 4.26
IP: 90.0 IP: 83.3
xERA: 4.8 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Max Meyer)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA STL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.31 4.60 4.49
RA/Game 4.27 4.62 4.49
OPS 0.713 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.04 4.30 4.18
FIP 3.78 4.19 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.35 1.31
K/9 8.73 7.57 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.05 4.44 4.23
BP FIP 3.52 4.25 4.06
BP WHIP 1.24 1.39
BP K/9 9.68 7.99
BP Quality* 43.7 49.8 46.2
BP IP 235.3 294.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 59%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9902 (Temp: 1.0023 | Wind: 0.9880)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.4 - STL 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.3 - STL 4.5
Win Probability: MIA 48.6% - STL 51.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +106 / STL -106
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.9%
Under 8.0: 41.0%
MIA -1.5: 33.1%
STL +1.5: 66.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.4 - STL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.4 - STL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 48.2% - STL 51.7% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +107 / STL -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -105 +106 -2.6%
STL ML -114 -106 -1.9%
MIA -1.5 +161 +202 -5.2%
STL +1.5 -196 -202 +0.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: J.T. Ginn Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 4.31 ERA: 2.41
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 9.1 K/9: 8.55
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 4.68
FIP: 4.17 FIP: 3.72
IP: 82.7 IP: 67.3
xERA: 3.74 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.63 4.56 4.49
RA/Game 5.30 5.00 4.49
OPS 0.744 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.96 4.63 4.18
FIP 4.65 4.25 4.04
WHIP 1.44 1.41 1.31
K/9 8.49 8.87 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.47 4.71 4.23
BP FIP 4.64 4.56 4.06
BP WHIP 1.55 1.47
BP K/9 9.39 9.16
BP Quality* 58.9 55.7 46.2
BP IP 289.3 303.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Matt Krook (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Barnett (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9741 (Temp: 0.9952 | Wind: 0.9788)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.2 - LAA 5.0
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.2 - LAA 5.0
Win Probability: ATH 42.4% - LAA 57.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +136 / LAA -136
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.7%
Under 8.5: 46.3%
ATH -1.5: 27.8%
LAA +1.5: 72.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 1.9 - LAA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.9 - LAA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 40.9% - LAA 59.1% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +144 / LAA -144
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML -131 +136 -14.3%
LAA ML +109 -136 +9.7%
ATH -1.5 +130 +260 -15.7%
LAA +1.5 -157 -260 +11.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -157 | Edge: 11.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00851
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Roki Sasaki Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 4.57 ERA: 4.51
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 7.8 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 4.66 BB/9: 3.71
FIP: 5.19 FIP: 4.42
IP: 68.0 IP: 72.7
xERA: 5.66 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.362 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: SD (Walker Buehler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.22 3.91 4.49
RA/Game 3.44 3.97 4.49
OPS 0.783 0.658 0.719
wOBA 0.335 0.285 0.310
ERA 3.40 3.85 4.18
FIP 3.58 3.81 4.04
WHIP 1.10 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.03 8.44 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.682 0.493 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 3.00 4.23
BP FIP 3.51 3.07 4.06
BP WHIP 1.25 1.13
BP K/9 9.91 10.02
BP Quality* 41.4 36.9 46.2
BP IP 256.0 243.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9875 (Temp: 0.9928 | Wind: 0.9946)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.9 - SD 4.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.9 - SD 4.2
Win Probability: LAD 56.4% - SD 43.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -129 / SD +129
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 7.5: 61.0%
Under 7.5: 39.0%
LAD -1.5: 40.6%
SD +1.5: 59.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.1 - SD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.1 - SD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 57.8% - SD 42.2% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -137 / SD +137
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -148 -129 -3.3%
SD ML +123 +129 -1.2%
LAD -1.5 +119 +146 -5.0%
SD +1.5 -144 -146 +0.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +8.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.50%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00852
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Reynaldo López Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SF Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.87 4.10 4.49
RA/Game 3.71 4.78 4.49
OPS 0.730 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.42 4.42 4.18
FIP 3.84 4.10 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.73 8.04 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.622 0.431 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.72 4.48 4.23
BP FIP 3.34 4.35 4.06
BP WHIP 1.07 1.47
BP K/9 9.04 7.68
BP Quality* 35.4 57.2 46.2
BP IP 228.0 275.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Dylan Smith (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9697 (Temp: 0.9843 | Wind: 0.9852)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.8 - SF 4.7
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.8 - SF 4.7
Win Probability: ATL 50.9% - SF 49.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -104 / SF +104
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 56.2%
Under 8.5: 43.8%
ATL -1.5: 35.9%
SF +1.5: 64.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.5 - SF 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.5 - SF 3.2
F5 Win Prob: ATL 38.8% - SF 61.2% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +158 / SF -158
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -120 -104 -3.6%
SF ML +100 +104 -0.9%
ATL -1.5 +139 +179 -6.0%
SF +1.5 -168 -179 +1.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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